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At least 1,567 records · Page 87Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Short-period volcanic gas precursors to phreatic eruptions: Insights from Poás Volcano, Costa Rica

Volcanic eruptions involving interaction with water are amongst the most violent and unpredictable geologic phenomena on Earth. Phreatic eruptions are exceptionally difficult to forecast by traditional geophysical techniques. Here we report on short-term precursory variations in gas emissions related to phreatic blasts at Poás volcano, Costa Rica, as measured with an in situ multiple gas analyzer that was deployed at the edge of the erupting lake. Gas emitted from this hyper-acid crater lake approaches magmatic values of SO 2 /CO 2 1–6 days prior to eruption. The SO 2 flux derived from magmatic degassing through the lake is measureable by differential optical absorption spectrometry (sporadic campaign measurements), which allows us to constrain lake gas output and input for the major gas species during eruptive and non-eruptive periods. We can further calculate power supply to the hydrothermal system using volatile mass balance and thermodynamics, which indicates that the magmatic heat flux into the shallow hydrothermal system increases from ∼27 MW during quiescence to ∼59 MW during periods of phreatic events. These transient pulses of gas and heat from the deeper magmatic system generate both phreatic eruptions and the observed short-term changes in gas composition, because at high gas flux scrubbing of sulfur by the hydrothermal system is both kinetically and thermodynamically inhibited whereas CO 2 gas is always essentially inert in hyperacid conditions. Thus, the SO 2 /CO 2 of lake emissions approaches magmatic values as gas and power supply to the sub-limnic hydrothermal system increase, vaporizing fluids and priming the hydrothermal system for eruption. Our results suggest that high-frequency real-time gas monitoring could provide useful short-term eruptive precursors at volcanoes prone to phreatic explosions.

Poás Volcano↗
USGS2016

Slab melting and magma formation beneath the southern Cascade arc

The processes that drive magma formation beneath the Cascade arc and other warm-slab subduction zones have been debated because young oceanic crust is predicted to largely dehydrate beneath the forearc during subduction. In addition, geochemical variability along strike in the Cascades has led to contrasting interpretations about the role of volatiles in magma generation. Here, we focus on the Lassen segment of the Cascade arc, where previous work has demonstrated across-arc geochemical variations related to subduction enrichment, and H-isotope data suggest that H 2 O in basaltic magmas is derived from the final breakdown of chlorite in the mantle portion of the slab. We use naturally glassy, olivine-hosted melt inclusions (MI) from the tephra deposits of eight primitive ( MgO>7 wt% ) basaltic cinder cones to quantify the pre-eruptive volatile contents of mantle-derived melts in this region. The melt inclusions have B concentrations and isotope ratios that are similar to mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB), suggesting extensive dehydration of the downgoing plate prior to reaching sub-arc depths and little input of slab-derived B into the mantle wedge. However, correlations of volatile and trace element ratios (H 2 O/Ce, Cl/Nb, Sr/Nd) in the melt inclusions demonstrate that geochemical variability is the result of variable addition of a hydrous subduction component to the mantle wedge. Furthermore, correlations between subduction component tracers and radiogenic isotope ratios show that the subduction component has less radiogenic Sr and Pb than the Lassen sub-arc mantle, which can be explained by melting of subducted Gorda MORB beneath the arc. Agreement between pMELTS melting models and melt inclusion volatile, major, and trace element data suggests that hydrous slab melt addition to the mantle wedge can produce the range in primitive compositions erupted in the Lassen region. Our results provide further evidence that chlorite-derived fluids from the mantle portion of the slab ( ∼7–9 km below the slab top) cause flux melting of the subducted oceanic crust, producing hydrous slab melts that migrate into the overlying mantle, where they react with peridotite to induce further melting.

Cascades↗
USGS2016

Bayesian estimation of magma supply, storage, and eruption rates using a multiphysical volcano model: Kīlauea Volcano, 2000–2012

Estimating rates of magma supply to the world's volcanoes remains one of the most fundamental aims of volcanology. Yet, supply rates can be difficult to estimate even at well-monitored volcanoes, in part because observations are noisy and are usually considered independently rather than as part of a holistic system. In this work we demonstrate a technique for probabilistically estimating time-variable rates of magma supply to a volcano through probabilistic constraint on storage and eruption rates. This approach utilizes Bayesian joint inversion of diverse datasets using predictions from a multiphysical volcano model, and independent prior information derived from previous geophysical, geochemical, and geological studies. The solution to the inverse problem takes the form of a probability density function which takes into account uncertainties in observations and prior information, and which we sample using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Applying the technique to Kīlauea Volcano, we develop a model which relates magma flow rates with deformation of the volcano's surface, sulfur dioxide emission rates, lava flow field volumes, and composition of the volcano's basaltic magma. This model accounts for effects and processes mostly neglected in previous supply rate estimates at Kīlauea, including magma compressibility, loss of sulfur to the hydrothermal system, and potential magma storage in the volcano's deep rift zones. We jointly invert data and prior information to estimate rates of supply, storage, and eruption during three recent quasi-steady-state periods at the volcano. Results shed new light on the time-variability of magma supply to Kīlauea, which we find to have increased by 35–100% between 2001 and 2006 (from 0.11–0.17 to 0.18–0.28 km 3 /yr), before subsequently decreasing to 0.08–0.12 km 3 /yr by 2012. Changes in supply rate directly impact hazard at the volcano, and were largely responsible for an increase in eruption rate of 60–150% between 2001 and 2006, and subsequent decline by as much as 60% by 2012. We also demonstrate the occurrence of temporal changes in the proportion of Kīlauea's magma supply that is stored versus erupted, with the supply “surge” in 2006 associated with increased accumulation of magma at the summit. Finally, we are able to place some constraints on sulfur concentrations in Kīlauea magma and the scrubbing of sulfur by the volcano's hydrothermal system. Multiphysical, Bayesian constraint on magma flow rates may be used to monitor evolving volcanic hazard not just at Kīlauea but at other volcanoes around the world.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2016

Insights into methane dynamics from analysis of authigenic carbonates and chemosynthetic mussels at newly-discovered Atlantic Margin seeps

The recent discovery of active methane venting along the US northern and mid-Atlantic margin represents a new source of global methane not previously accounted for in carbon budgets from this region. However, uncertainty remains as to the origin and history of methane seepage along this tectonically inactive passive margin. Here we present the first isotopic analyses of authigenic carbonates and methanotrophic deep-sea mussels, Bathymodiolus sp., and the first direct constraints on the timing of past methane emission, based on samples collected at the upper slope Baltimore Canyon (∼385 m water depth) and deepwater Norfolk (∼1600 m) seep fields within the area of newly-discovered venting. The authigenic carbonates at both sites were dominated by aragonite, with an average signature of −47‰ , a value consistent with microbially driven anaerobic oxidation of methane-rich fluids occurring at or near the sediment–water interface. Authigenic carbonate U and Sr isotope data further support the inference of carbonate precipitation from seawater-derived fluids rather than from formation fluids from deep aquifers. Carbonate stable and radiocarbon ( and ) isotope values from living Bathymodiolus sp. specimens are lighter than those of seawater dissolved inorganic carbon, highlighting the influence of fossil carbon from methane on carbonate precipitation. U–Th dates on authigenic carbonates suggest seepage at Baltimore Canyon between 14.7±0.6 ka to 15.7±1.6 ka , and at the Norfolk seep field between 1.0±0.7 ka to 3.3±1.3 ka , providing constraint on the longevity of methane efflux at these sites. The age of the brecciated authigenic carbonates and the occurrence of pockmarks at the Baltimore Canyon upper slope could suggest a link between sediment delivery during Pleistocene sea-level lowstand, accumulation of pore fluid overpressure from sediment compaction, and release of overpressure through subsequent venting. Calculations show that the Baltimore Canyon site probably has not been within the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) in the past 20 ka, meaning that in-situ release of methane from dissociating gas hydrate cannot be sustaining the seep. We cannot rule out updip migration of methane from dissociation of gas hydrate that occurs farther down the slope as a source of the venting at Baltimore Canyon, but consider that the history of rapid sediment accumulation and overpressure may play a more important role in methane emissions at this site.

Baltimore Canyon seep fields, Norfolk seep fields↗
USGS2016

Large along-strike variations in the onset of Subandean exhumation: Implications for Central Andean orogenic growth

Plate tectonics drives mountain building in general, but the space-time pattern and style of deformation is influenced by how climate, geodynamics, and basement structure modify the orogenic wedge. Growth of the Subandean thrust belt, which lies at the boundary between the arid, high-elevation Central Andean Plateau and its humid, low-elevation eastern foreland, figures prominently into debates of orogenic wedge evolution. We integrate new apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometer data with previously published apatite fission-track data from samples collected along four Subandean structural cross-sections in Bolivia between 15° and 20°S. We interpret cooling ages vs. structural depth to indicate the onset of Subandean exhumation and signify the forward propagation of deformation. We find that Subandean growth is diachronous south (11 ± 3 Ma) vs. north (6 ± 2 Ma) of the Bolivian orocline and that Subandean exhumation magnitudes vary by more than a factor of two. Similar north-south contrasts are present in foreland deposition, hinterland erosion, and paleoclimate; these observations both corroborate diachronous orogenic growth and illuminate potential propagation mechanisms. Of particular interest is an abrupt shift to cooler, more arid conditions in the Altiplano hinterland that is diachronous in southern Bolivia (16-13 Ma) vs. northern Bolivia (10-7 Ma) and precedes the timing of Subandean propagation in each region. Others have interpreted the paleoclimate shift to reflect either rapid surface uplift due to lithosphere removal or an abrupt change in climate dynamics once orographic threshold elevations were exceeded. These mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and both would drive forward propagation of the orogenic wedge by augmenting the hinterland backstop, either through surface uplift or spatially variable erosion. In summary, we suggest that diachronous Subandean exhumation was driven by piecemeal hinterland uplift, orography, and the outward propagation of deformation.

Andes↗
USGS2016

The timing of compositionally-zoned magma reservoirs and mafic 'priming' weeks before the 1912 Novarupta-Katmai rhyolite eruption

The June 6, 1912 eruption of more than 13 km3 of dense rock equivalent (DRE) magma at Novarupta vent, Alaska was the largest of the 20th century. It ejected >7 km3 of rhyolite, ~1.3 km3 of andesite and ~4.6 km3 of dacite. Early ideas about the origin of pyroclastic flows and magmatic differentiation (e.g., compositional zonation of reservoirs) were shaped by this eruption. Despite being well studied, the timing of events that led to the chemically and mineralogically zoned magma reservoir remain poorly known. Here we provide new insights using the textures and chemical compositions of plagioclase and orthopyroxene crystals and by reevaluating previous U-Th isotope data. Compositional zoning of the magma reservoir likely developed a few thousand years before the eruption by several additions of mafic magma below an extant silicic reservoir. Melt compositions calculated from Sr contents in plagioclase fill the compositional gap between 68 and 76% SiO2 in whole pumice clasts, consistent with uninterrupted crystal growth from a continuum of liquids. Thus, our findings support a general model in which large volumes of crystal-poor rhyolite are related to intermediate magmas through gradual separation of melt from crystal-rich mush. The rhyolite is incubated by, but not mixed with, episodic recharge pulses of mafic magma that interact thermochemically with the mush and intermediate magmas. Hot, Mg-, Ca-, and Al-rich mafic magma intruded into, and mixed with, deeper parts of the reservoir (andesite and dacite) multiple times. Modeling the relaxation of the Fe-Mg concentrations in orthopyroxene and Mg in plagioclase rims indicates that the final recharge event occurred just weeks prior to the eruption. Rapid addition of mass, volatiles, and heat from the recharge magma, perhaps aided by partial melting of cumulate mush below the andesite and dacite, pressurized the reservoir and likely propelled a ~10 km lateral dike that allowed the overlying rhyolite to reach the surface.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2016

Interaction between climate, volcanism, and isostatic rebound in Southeast Alaska during the last deglaciation

Observations of enhanced volcanic frequency during the last deglaciation have led to the hypothesis that ice unloading in glaciated volcanic terrains can promote volcanism through decompression melting in the shallow mantle or a reduction in crustal magma storage time. However, a direct link between regional climate change, isostatic adjustment, and the initiation of volcanism remains to be demonstrated due to the difficulty of obtaining high-resolution well-dated records that capture short-term climate and volcanic variability traced to a particular source region. Here we present an exceptionally resolved record of 19 tephra layers paired with foraminiferal oxygen isotopes and alkenone paleotemperatures from marine sediment cores along the Southeast Alaska margin spanning the last deglacial transition. Major element compositions of the tephras indicate a predominant source from the nearby Mt. Edgecumbe Volcanic Field (MEVF). We constrain the timing of this regional eruptive sequence to 14.6–13.1 ka. The sudden increase in volcanic activity from the MEVF coincides with the onset of Bølling–Allerød interstadial warmth, the disappearance of ice-rafted detritus, and rapid vertical land motion associated with modeled regional isostatic rebound in response to glacier retreat. These data support the hypothesis that regional deglaciation can rapidly trigger volcanic activity. Rapid sea surface temperature fluctuations and an increase in local salinity (i.e., δ 18 O sw ) variability are associated with the interval of intense volcanic activity, consistent with a two-way interaction between climate and volcanism in which rapid volcanic response to ice unloading may in turn enhance short-term melting of the glaciers, plausibly via albedo effects on glacier ablation zones.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2016

Joint analysis of geodetic and earthquake fault-plane solution data to constrain magmatic sources: A case study from Kīlauea Volcano

A joint analysis of geodetic and seismic datasets from Kīlauea Volcano during a period of magmatic unrest in 2006 demonstrates the effectiveness of this combination for testing and constraining models of magma dynamics for a complex, multi-source system. At the end of 2003, Kīlauea's summit began a four-year-long period of inflation due to a surge in magma supply to the volcano. In 2006, for the first time since 1982, Kīlauea's Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) also experienced inflation. To investigate the characteristics of active magma sources and the nature of their interactions with faults in the SWRZ during 2006, we integrate, through Coulomb stress modeling, contemporary geodetic data from InSAR and GPS with a new catalogue of double-couple fault-plane solutions for volcano-tectonic earthquakes. We define two periods of inflation during 2006 based on the rate of deformation measured in daily GPS data, spanning February to 15 March 2006 (Period 1) and 16 March to 30 September 2006 (Period 2). InSAR data for these two periods are inverted to determine the position, change in size, and shape of inflation sources in each period. Our new models are consistent with microseismic activity from each period. They suggest that, during Period 1, deformation in the SWRZ can be explained by pressurization of magma in a spherical reservoir beneath the south caldera, and that, during Period 2, magma was also aseismically intruded farther to the southwest into the SWRZ along a sub-horizontal plane. Our Coulomb stress analysis shows that the microseismicity recorded in the SWRZ is induced by overpressurization of the south caldera reservoir, and not by magma intrusion into the SWRZ. This study highlights the importance of a joint analysis of independent geophysical datasets to fully constrain the nature of magma accumulation.

Hawaii↗
USGS2016

Comparison of the mineral composition of the sediment found in two Mars dunefields: Ogygis Undae and Gale crater – three distinct endmembers identified

The composition of two dune fields, Ogygis Undae and the NE–SW trending dune field in Gale crater (the “Bagnold Dune Field” and “Western Dune Field”), were analyzed using thermal emission spectra from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS). The Gale crater dune field was used as a baseline as other orbital compositional analyses have been conducted, and in situ sampling results will soon be available. Results from unmixing thermal emission spectra showed a spatial variation between feldspar mineral abundances and pyroxene mineral abundances in Ogygis Undae. Other datasets, including nighttime thermal inertia values, also showed variation throughout the dune field. One explanation proposed for this variation is a bimodal distribution of two sand populations. This distribution is seen in some terrestrial dune fields. The two dune fields varied in both mineral types present and in uniformity of composition. These differences point to different source lithologies and different distances travelled from source material. Examining these differences further will allow for a greater understanding of aeolian processes on Mars.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2017

Lithospheric density structure beneath the Tarim basin and surroundings, northwestern China, from the joint inversion of gravity and topography

Intraplate strain generally focuses in discrete zones, but despite the profound impact of this partitioning on global tectonics, geodynamics, and seismic hazard, the processes by which deformation becomes localized are not well understood. Such heterogeneous intraplate strain is exemplified in central Asia, where the Indo-Eurasian collision has caused widespread deformation while the Tarim block has experienced minimal Cenozoic shortening. The apparent stability of Tarim may arise either because strain is dominantly accommodated by pre-existing faults in the continental suture zones that bound it—essentially discretizing Eurasia into microplates—or because the lithospheric-scale strength (i.e., viscosity) of the Tarim block is greater than its surroundings. Here, we jointly analyze seismic velocity, gravity, topography, and temperature to develop a 3-D density model of the crust and upper mantle in this region. The Tarim crust is characterized by high density, v s , v p , and v p /v s , consistent with a dominantly mafic composition and with the presence of an oceanic plateau beneath Tarim. Low-density but high-velocity mantle lithosphere beneath southern (southwestern) Tarim underlies a suite of Permian plume-related mafic intrusions and A-type granites sourced in previously depleted mantle lithosphere; we posit that this region was further depleted, dehydrated, and strengthened by Permian plume magmatism. The actively deforming western and southern margins of Tarim—the Tien Shan, Kunlun Shan, and Altyn Tagh fault—are underlain by buoyant upper mantle with low velocity; we hypothesize that this material has been hydrated by mantle-derived fluids that have preferentially migrated along Paleozoic continental sutures. Such hydrous material should be weak, and herein strain focuses there because of lithospheric-scale variations in rheology rather than the pre-existence of faults in the brittle crust. Thus this world-class example of strain partitioning arises not simply from the pre-existence of brittle faults but from the thermo-chemical and therefore rheological variations inherited from prior tectonism.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2017

Pulsed strain release on the Altyn Tagh fault, northwest China

Earthquake recurrence models assume that major surface-rupturing earthquakes are followed by periods of reduced rupture probability as stress rebuilds. Although purely periodic, time- or slip-predictable rupture models are known to be oversimplifications, a paucity of long records of fault slip clouds understanding of fault behavior and earthquake recurrence over multiple ruptures. Here, we report a 16 kyr history of fault slip—including a pulse of accelerated slip from 6.4 to 6.0 ka—determined using a Monte Carlo analysis of well-dated offset landforms along the central Altyn Tagh strike-slip fault (ATF) in northwest China. This pulse punctuates a median rate of 8.1 +1.2 / −0.9 mm/a and likely resulted from either a flurry of temporally clustered ∼Mw 7.5 ground-rupturing earthquakes or a single large >Mw 8.2 earthquake. The clustered earthquake scenario implies rapid re-rupture of a fault reach >195 km long and indicates decoupled rates of elastic strain energy accumulation versus dissipation, conceptualized as a crustal stress battery. If the pulse reflects a single event, slip-magnitude scaling implies that it ruptured much of the ATF with slip similar to, or exceeding, the largest documented historical ruptures. Both scenarios indicate fault rupture behavior that deviates from classic time- or slip-predictable models.

Altyn Tagh fault↗
USGS2017

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.

California↗
USGS2017

Evidence for strong lateral seismic velocity variation in the lower crust and upper mantle beneath the California margin

Regional seismograms from earthquakes in Northern California show a systematic difference in arrival times across Southern California where long period (30–50 seconds) SH waves arrive up to 15 seconds earlier at stations near the coast compared with sites towards the east at similar epicentral distances. We attribute this time difference to heterogeneity of the velocity structure at the crust-mantle interface beneath the California margin. To model these observations, we propose a fast seismic layer, with thickness growing westward from the San Andreas along with a thicker and slower continental crust to the east. Synthetics generated from such a model are able to match the observed timing of SH waveforms better than existing 3D models. The presence of a strong upper mantle buttressed against a weaker crust has a major influence in how the boundary between the Pacific plate and North American plate deforms and may explain the observed asymmetric strain rate across the boundary.

California↗
USGS2017

Thermal and petrologic constraints on lower crustal melt accumulation under the Salton Sea Geothermal Field

In the Salton Sea region of southern California (USA), concurrent magmatism, extension, subsidence, and sedimentation over the past 0.5 to 1.0 Ma have led to the creation of the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF)—the second largest and hottest geothermal system in the continental United States—and the small-volume rhyolite eruptions that created the Salton Buttes. In this study, we determine the flux of mantle-derived basaltic magma that would be required to produce the elevated average heat flow and sustain the magmatic roots of rhyolite volcanism observed at the surface of the Salton Sea region. We use a 2D thermal model to show that a lower-crustal, partially molten mush containing &lt; 20 &#x2013; 40 % "> <20–40% interstitial melt develops over a &#x223C; 10 5 "> ∼105 -yr timescale for basalt fluxes of 0.008 to 0.010 m 3 / m 2 / yr "> 0.010m3/m2/yr (∼0.0008 to ∼0.001 km / 3 yr "> /3yr injection rate) given extension rates at or below the current value of ∼0.01 m/yr ( Brothers et al., 2009 ). These regions of partial melt are a natural consequence of a thermal regime that scales with average surface heat flow in the Salton Trough, and are consistent with seismic observations. Our results indicate limited melting and assimilation of pre-existing rocks in the lower crust. Instead, we find that basalt fractionation in the lower crust produces derivative melts of andesitic to dacitic composition. Such melts are then expected to ascend and accumulate in the upper crust, where they further evolve to give rise to small-volume rhyolite eruptions (Salton Buttes) and fuel local spikes in surface heat flux as currently seen in the SSGF. Such upper crustal magma evolution, with limited assimilation of hydrothermally altered material, is required to explain the slight decrease in &#x3B4; 18 O "> δ18O values of zircons (and melts) that have been measured in these rhyolites.

California↗
USGS2017

Middle and Late Pleistocene glaciations in the southwestern Pamir and their effects on topography

Glacial chronologies provide insight into the evolution of paleo-landscapes, paleoclimate, topography, and the erosion processes that shape mountain ranges. In the Pamir of Central Asia, glacial morphologies and deposits indicate extensive past glaciations, whose timing and extent remain poorly constrained. Geomorphic data and 15 new 10 Be exposure ages from moraine boulders and roches moutonnées in the southwestern Pamir document multiple Pleistocene glacial stages. The oldest exposure ages, , underestimate the age of the earliest preserved glacial advance and imply that the modern relief of the southwestern Pamir (peaks at ∼5000–6000 m a.s.l.; valleys at ∼2000–3000 m a.s.l.) already existed in the late Middle Pleistocene. Younger exposure ages (∼40–80 ka, ∼30 ka) complement the existing Central Asian glacial chronology and reflect successively less extensive Late Pleistocene glaciations. The topography of the Pamir and the glacial chronologies suggest that, in the Middle Pleistocene, an ice cap or ice field occupied the eastern Pamir high-altitude plateau, whereas westward flowing valley glaciers incised the southwestern Pamir. Since the Late Pleistocene deglaciation, the rivers of the southwestern Pamir adjusted to the glacially shaped landscape. Localized rapid fluvial incision and drainage network reorganization reflect the transient nature of the deglaciated landscape.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2017

The finite, kinematic rupture properties of great-sized earthquakes since 1990

Here, I present a database of >160 finite fault models for all earthquakes of M 7.5 and above since 1990, created using a consistent modeling approach. The use of a common approach facilitates easier comparisons between models, and reduces uncertainties that arise when comparing models generated by different authors, data sets and modeling techniques. I use this database to verify published scaling relationships, and for the first time show a clear and intriguing relationship between maximum potency (the product of slip and area) and average potency for a given earthquake. This relationship implies that earthquakes do not reach the potential size given by the tectonic load of a fault (sometimes called “moment deficit,” calculated via a plate rate over time since the last earthquake, multiplied by geodetic fault coupling). Instead, average potency (or slip) scales with but is less than maximum potency (dictated by tectonic loading). Importantly, this relationship facilitates a more accurate assessment of maximum earthquake size for a given fault segment, and thus has implications for long-term hazard assessments. The relationship also suggests earthquake cycles may not completely reset after a large earthquake, and thus repeat rates of such events may appear shorter than is expected from tectonic loading. This in turn may help explain the phenomenon of “earthquake super-cycles” observed in some global subduction zones.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2017

Influence of pore pressure change on coseismic volumetric strain

Coseismic strain is fundamentally important for understanding crustal response to changes of stress after earthquakes. The elastic dislocation model has been widely applied to interpreting observed shear deformation caused by earthquakes. The application of the same theory to interpreting volumetric strain, however, has met with difficulty, especially in the far field of earthquakes. Predicted volumetric strain with dislocation model often differs substantially, and sometimes of opposite signs, from observed coseismic volumetric strains. The disagreement suggests that some processes unaccounted for by the dislocation model may occur during earthquakes. Several hypotheses have been suggested, but none have been tested quantitatively. In this paper we first examine published data to highlight the difference between the measured and calculated static coseismic volumetric strains; we then use these data to provide quantitative test of the model that the disagreement may be explained by the change of pore pressure in the shallow crust. The test allows us to conclude that coseismic change of pore pressure may be an important mechanism for coseismic crustal strain and, in the far field, may even be the dominant mechanism. Thus in the interpretation of observed coseismic crustal strain, one needs to account not only for the elastic strain due to fault rupture but also for the strain due to coseismic change of pore pressure.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2017

Sediment unmixing using detrital geochronology

Sediment mixing within sediment routing systems can exert a strong influence on the preservation of provenance signals that yield insight into the influence of environmental forcings (e.g., tectonism, climate) on the earth’s surface. Here we discuss two approaches to unmixing detrital geochronologic data in an effort to characterize complex changes in the sedimentary record. First we summarize ‘top-down’ mixing, which has been successfully employed in the past to characterize the different fractions of prescribed source distributions (‘parents’) that characterize a derived sample or set of samples (‘daughters’). Second we propose the use of ‘bottom-up’ methods, previously used primarily for grain size distributions, to model parent distributions and the abundances of these parents within a set of daughters. We demonstrate the utility of both top-down and bottom-up approaches to unmixing detrital geochronologic data within a well-constrained sediment routing system in central California. Use of a variety of goodness-of-fit metrics in top-down modeling reveals the importance of considering the range of allowable mixtures over any single best-fit mixture calculation. Bottom-up modeling of 12 daughter samples from beaches and submarine canyons yields modeled parent distributions that are remarkably similar to those expected from the geologic context of the sediment-routing system. In general, mixture modeling has potential to supplement more widely applied approaches in comparing detrital geochronologic data by casting differences between samples as differing proportions of geologically meaningful end-member provenance categories.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗