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At least 1,567 records · Page 87Linked to original sources
USGS2017

From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments

Our different kinds of minds and types of thinking affect the ways we decide, take action, and cooperate (or not). Derived from these types of minds, innate biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values (BBHV) influence behaviors, often beneficially, when individuals or small groups face immediate, local, acute situations that they and their ancestors faced repeatedly in the past. BBHV, though, need to be recognized and possibly countered or used when facing new, complex issues or situations especially if they need to be managed for the benefit of a wider community, for the longer-term and the larger-scale. Taking BBHV into account, we explain and provide a cyclic science-infused adaptive framework for (1) gaining knowledge of complex systems and (2) improving their management. We explore how this process and framework could improve the governance of science and policy for different types of systems and issues, providing examples in the area of natural resources, hazards, and the environment. Lastly, we suggest that an “Open Traceable Accountable Policy” initiative that followed our suggested adaptive framework could beneficially complement recent Open Data/Model science initiatives.

Earth's Future↗
USGS2016

Yosemite Hydroclimate Network: Distributed stream and atmospheric data for the Tuolumne River watershed and surroundings

Regions of complex topography and remote wilderness terrain have spatially varying patterns of temperature and streamflow, but due to inherent difficulties of access, are often very poorly sampled. Here we present a data set of distributed stream stage, streamflow, stream temperature, barometric pressure, and air temperature from the Tuolumne River Watershed in Yosemite National Park, Sierra Nevada, California, USA, for water years 2002–2015, as well as a quality-controlled hourly meteorological forcing time series for use in hydrologic modeling. We also provide snow data and daily inflow to the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir for 1970–2015. This paper describes data collected using low-visibility and low-impact installations for wilderness locations and can be used alone or as a critical supplement to ancillary data sets collected by cooperating agencies, referenced herein. This data set provides a unique opportunity to understand spatial patterns and scaling of hydroclimatic processes in complex terrain and can be used to evaluate downscaling techniques or distributed modeling. The paper also provides an example methodology and lessons learned in conducting hydroclimatic monitoring in remote wilderness.

California↗
USGS2017

Noble gas signatures in the Island of Maui, Hawaii: Characterizing groundwater sources in fractured systems

Uneven distribution of rainfall and freshwater scarcity in populated areas in the Island of Maui, Hawaii, renders water resources management a challenge in this complex and ill-defined hydrological system. A previous study in the Galapagos Islands suggests that noble gas temperatures (NGTs) record seasonality in that fractured, rapid infiltration groundwater system rather than the commonly observed mean annual air temperature (MAAT) in sedimentary systems where infiltration is slower thus, providing information on recharge sources and potential flow paths. Here we report noble gas results from the basal aquifer, springs, and rainwater in Maui to explore the potential for noble gases in characterizing this type of complex fractured hydrologic systems. Most samples display a mass-dependent depletion pattern with respect to surface conditions consistent with previous observations both in the Galapagos Islands and Michigan rainwater. Basal aquifer and rainwater noble gas patterns are similar and suggest direct, fast recharge from precipitation to the basal aquifer. In contrast, multiple springs, representative of perched aquifers, display highly variable noble gas concentrations suggesting recharge from a variety of sources. The distinct noble gas patterns for the basal aquifer and springs suggest that basal and perched aquifers are separate entities. Maui rainwater displays high apparent NGTs, incompatible with surface conditions, pointing either to an origin at high altitudes with the presence of ice or an ice-like source of undetermined origin. Overall, noble gas signatures in Maui reflect the source of recharge rather than the expected altitude/temperature relationship commonly observed in sedimentary systems.

Hawaii↗
USGS2013

Panarchy

Panarchy is the term coined to describe hierarchical systems where control is not only top down, as typically considered, but also bottom up. A panarchy is composed of adaptive cycles, and an adaptive cycle describes the processes of development and decay in a system. Complex systems self-organize into hierarchies because this structure limits the possible spread of destructive phenomena (e.g., forest fires, epidemics) that could result in catastrophic system failure. Thus, hierarchical organization enhances the resilience of complex systems.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Onset of a basaltic explosive eruption from Kīlauea’s summit in 2008

The onset of a basaltic eruption at the summit of Kīlauea volcano in 2008 is recorded in the products generated during the first three weeks of the eruption and suggests an evolution of both the physical properties of the magma and also lava lake levels and vent wall stability. Ash componentry and the microtextures of the early erupted lapilli products reveal that the magma was largely outgassed, perhaps in the preceding weeks to months. An increase in the juvenile:lithic ratio and size of ash collected from March 23 to April 3 records an increasing level of the magma within the conduit. After April 3 until the explosive eruption of April 9, a trend of decreasing juvenile:lithic ratio suggests that vent wall collapses were more frequent, possibly because lava level increased and destabilized the overhanging wall [Orr et al. 2013]. Despite increasing lake height, the microtextural characteristics of the lapilli suggest that the outgassed end-member was still being tapped between March 26 and April 8. The April 9 rockfall triggered an explosive eruption that produced a new component in the eruption deposits not seen in the preceding weeks; microvesicular juvenile lapilli, the first evidence of an actively vesiculating magma. Two additional dense end-member pyroclast types were also erupted during the April 9 explosion, likely related to outgassed magma with longer residence times than the microvesicular magma. We link these pyroclasts to a stagnant viscous crust at the top of the magma column or to convecting, downwelling magma. Our study of ash componentry and the textures of juvenile lapilli suggests that the April 9 explosive event effectively cleared the conduit of largely outgassed magma. The degassing processes during this eruption are complex and varied: in the period of persistent degassing during March 26-April 8 small resident bubbles at shallow levels in the lava lake were coupled to the magma whereas large bubbles ascended, expanded and fragmented. During the rockfall- triggered explosion of April 9, all bubbles were coupled to the host magma on the timescale of decompression, but additional exsolution, decompression and expansion of deeper, more gas-rich resident magma likely occurred [cf. Carey et al. 2012]. Where external conditions play a significant role in eruption dynamics, e.g., by triggering eruptions, vesiculation and degassing dynamics can be expected to be complex.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2025

Blueprints for riverine cod nest boxes draw from multiple design considerations

Designing aquatic nest boxes is rarely afforded detailed scientific account. Here we provide some historical context for nest boxes used in production of large-bodied fishes of the Australian freshwater cod genus Maccullochella . Our experience with eastern freshwater cod is used as a case study to: (a) convey aspects of the complexity of the nest box design process and to (b) demonstrate the importance of visual literacy in project communication across the variety of contributors to the eco-design process. Specifically, we describe a new, two-variant, triangular nest box design for application in rivers and modifications to a standard stainless steel nest box for hatchery-pond-based spawning of eastern freshwater cod M. ikei . We designed the boxes to test adult preference for single versus double entrance/exits to cavities in hatchery and field environments. An important consideration specific to hatchery production is harvesting demersal, adhesive eggs prior to hatching to minimise fungal infection of eggs and physical loss of larvae, in addition to providing critical first feeding of larvae. In contrast, field nest box design incorporated multiple factors and associated trade-offs related to both internal and external design, ranging from manufacturer capability, material types, cost, transportability, hydrological performance, biodegradability, retrievability, as well as biological and ecological function. Only preliminary findings from field nest box deployments are provided here, and we focus primarily on elements of visual language in the form of conceptual drawings, sketches and final schematics which have been central to our process. We emphasise the benefit of harnessing input from multiple fields of expertise and documenting and testing designs of nest boxes for cavity nesting fishes, under both controlled hatchery and more complex field conditions.

Aquaculture, Fish and Fisheries↗
USGS2021

Multicriteria decisions and portfolio analysis: Land acquisition for biological and social objectives

Resource allocation for land acquisition is a common multi-objective problem that involves complex trade-offs. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service currently uses the Targeted Resource Acquisition Comparison Tool (TRACT) to allocate funds from the Migratory Bird Conservation Fund (MBCF; established through the Migratory Bird Hunting and Conservation Act of 1934) for land acquisition based on cost-benefit analysis, regional priority rankings of candidate land parcels available for acquisition, and the overall biological contribution to duck population objectives. However, current policy encourages decision makers to consider societal and economic benefits of lands acquired, in addition to their biological benefits to waterfowl. These decisions about portfolio elements (i.e. individual land parcels) require an analysis of the difficult trade-offs among multiple objectives. In the last decade the application of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods has been instrumental in aiding decision makers with complex multi-objective decisions. In this study, we present an alternative approach to developing land acquisition portfolios using MCDA and Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). We describe the development of a portfolio decision analysis tool using constrained optimization for land acquisition decisions by the NWRS. We outline the decision framework, describe development of the prototype tool in Microsoft Excel, and test the results of the tool using land parcels submitted as candidates for MBCF funding in 2019. Our results indicate that the constrained optimization outperformed the traditional TRACT method and ad hoc portfolios developed using current NWRS criteria.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2024

Food-web dynamics of a floodplain mosaic overshadow the effects of engineered logjams for Pacific salmon and steelhead

Food webs vary in space and time. The structure and spatial arrangement of food webs are theorized to mediate temporal dynamics of energy flow, but empirical corroboration in intermediate-scale landscapes is scarce. River-floodplain landscapes encompass a mosaic of aquatic habitat patches and food webs, supporting a variety of aquatic consumers of conservation concern. How the structure and productivity of these patch-scale food webs change through time, and how floodplain restoration influences their dynamics, are unevaluated. We measured productivity and food-web dynamics across a mosaic of main-channel and side-channel habitats of the Methow River, WA, USA, during two study years (2009–2010; 2015–2016) and examined how food webs that sustained juvenile anadromous salmonids responded to habitat manipulation. By quantifying temporal variation in secondary production and organic matter flow across nontreated river-floodplain habitats and comparing that variation to a side channel treated with engineered logjams, we jointly confronted spatial food-web theory and assessed whether food-web dynamics in the treated side channel exceeded natural variation exhibited in nontreated habitats. We observed that organic matter flow through the more complex, main-channel food web was similar between study years, whereas organic matter flow through the simpler, side-channel food webs changed up to ~4-fold. In the side channel treated with engineered logjams, production of benthic invertebrates and juvenile salmonids increased between study years by 2× and 4×, respectively; however, these changes did not surpass the temporal variation observed in untreated habitats. For instance, juvenile salmonid production rose 17-fold in one untreated side-channel habitat, and natural aggregation of large wood in another coincided with a shift to community and food-web dominance by juvenile salmonids. Our findings suggest that interannual dynamism in material flux across floodplain habitat mosaics is interrelated with patchiness in food-web complexity and may overshadow the ecological responses to localized river restoration. Although this dynamism may inhibit detection of the ecological effects of river restoration, it may also act to stabilize aquatic ecosystems and buffer salmon and other species of conservation concern in the long term. As such, natural, landscape-level patchiness and dynamism in food webs should be integrated into conceptual foundations of process-based, river restoration.

Washington↗
USGS2018

The effect of isolation, fragmentation, and population bottlenecks on song structure of a Hawaiian honeycreeper

Little is known about how important social behaviors such as song vary within and among populations for any of the endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Habitat loss and non‐native diseases (e.g., avian malaria) have resulted in isolation and fragmentation of Hawaiian honeycreepers within primarily high elevation forests. In this study, we examined how isolation of Hawai'i ‘amakihi ( Chlorodrepanis virens ) populations within a fragmented landscape influences acoustic variability in song. In the last decade, small, isolated populations of disease tolerant ‘amakihi have been found within low elevation forests, allowing us to record ‘amakihi songs across a large elevational gradient (10–1800 m) that parallels disease susceptibility on Hawai'i island. To understand underlying differences among populations, we examined the role of geographic distance, elevation, and habitat structure on acoustic characteristics of ‘amakihi songs. We found that the acoustic characteristics of ‘amakihi songs and song‐type repertoires varied most strongly across an elevational gradient. Differences in ‘amakihi song types were primarily driven by less complex songs (e.g., fewer frequency changes, shorter songs) of individuals recorded at low elevation sites compared to mid and high elevation populations. The reduced complexity of ‘amakihi songs at low elevation sites is most likely shaped by the effects of habitat fragmentation and a disease‐driven population bottleneck associated with avian malaria, and maintained through isolation, localized song learning and sharing, and cultural drift. These results highlight how a non‐native disease through its influence on population demographics may have also indirectly played a role in shaping the acoustic characteristics of a species.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2024

Scale-dependence in elk habitat selection for a reintroduced population in Wisconsin, USA

Habitat selection is a critical aspect of a species' ecology, requiring complex decision-making that is both hierarchical and scale-dependent, since factors that influence selection may be nested or unequal across scales. Elk ( Cervus canadensis ) ranged widely across diverse ecoregions in North America prior to European settlement and subsequent eastern extirpation. Most habitat selection studies have occurred within their contemporary western range, even after eastern reintroductions began. As habitat selection can vary by geographic location, available cover, season, and diel period, it is important to understand how a non-migratory, reintroduced population in northern Wisconsin, USA, is limited by the lack of variation in topography, elevation, and vegetation. We tested scale-dependent habitat selection on 79 adult elk from 2017 to 2020 using resource selection functions across temporal (i.e., seasonal) and spatial scales (i.e., landscape and home range). We found that selection varied both spatially and temporally, and elk selected areas with the greatest potential to influence fitness at larger scales, meaning elk selected areas closer to escape cover and further from “risky” features (e.g., annual wolf territory centers, county roads, and highways). We found stronger avoidance of annual wolf territory centers during spring, suggesting elk were selecting safer habitats during calving season. Elk selected habitats with less canopy cover across both spatial scales and all seasons, suggesting that elk selected areas with better access to forage as early seral stage stands have greater forage biomass than closed-canopy forests and direct solar radiation to provide warmth in the cooler seasons. This study provides insight into the complexity of hierarchical decision-making, such as how risky habitat features and land cover type influence habitat selection differently across seasons and spatial scales, influencing the decision-making of elk. Scale-dependent behavior is crucial to understand within specific geographic regions, as these decisions scale up to influence population dynamics.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Dynamic risk from Mexican wolves and mountain lions influences elk foraging behavior

Foraging time is a major component of ungulate activity budgets but can be limited by anti-predator behaviors (e.g., vigilance). Multitasking can reduce the nutritional costs of vigilance under heightened predation risk, but this may depend on the response of prey to risk from multiple predators across a complex spatiotemporal landscape. Mexican gray wolves ( Canis lupus baileyi ) and mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) are primary predators for elk ( Cervus canadensis ) in the Mexican wolf experimental population area in east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. We observed elk foraging across varying levels of wolf risk throughout all seasons and diel periods to quantify proportions of foraging, intense vigilance, and multitasking at the individual and herd levels. We quantified encounter and kill risk from Mexican wolves and mountain lions using habitat selection functions and utilization distributions. We modeled elk behaviors as functions of predicted risk for both predators in addition to temporal and environmental covariates and accounted for human presence. Our results indicate that individual elk reduced foraging in areas with higher predicted risk from Mexican wolves or mountain lions and increased intense vigilance and multitasking in areas with higher wolf risk. A reduction in the proportion of bedded elk in the herd during all diel periods under increased wolf risk supports previous findings. These results also suggest that elk compensate for higher intense vigilance and reduced foraging during foraging bouts by increasing cumulative foraging bouts per day at the cost of resting. Additionally, the probability of multitasking for individuals depended on an interaction between short- and long-term wolf risk, and the likelihood of intense vigilance was highest under the greatest combined spatial and temporal risk from wolves. This research provides insight into the fine-scale and complex behavioral responses of elk to their primary predators and implies a need for researchers to consider these non-consumptive effects in future studies of predator–prey dynamics.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2013

Estimating evapotranspiration and groundwater flow from water-table fluctuations for a general wetland scenario

The use of diurnal water-table fluctuation methods to calculate evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater flow is of increasing interest in ecohydrological studies. Most studies of this type, however, have been located in riparian wetlands of semi-arid regions where groundwater levels are consistently below topographic surface elevations and precipitation events are infrequent. Current methodologies preclude application to a wider variety of wetland systems. In this study, we extended a method for estimating sub-daily ET and groundwater flow rates from water-level fluctuations to fit highly dynamic, non-riparian wetland scenarios. Modifications included (1) varying the specific yield to account for periodic flooded conditions and (2) relating empirically derived ET to estimated potential ET for days when precipitation events masked the diurnal signal. To demonstrate the utility of this method, we estimated ET and groundwater fluxes over two growing seasons (2006–2007) in 15 wetlands within a ridge-and-swale wetland complex of the Laurentian Great Lakes under flooded and non-flooded conditions. Mean daily ET rates for the sites ranged from 4.0 mm d−1 to 6.6 mm d−1. Shallow groundwater discharge rates resulting from evaporative demand ranged from 2.5 mm d−1 to 4.3 mm d−1. This study helps to expand our understanding of the evapotranspirative demand of plants under various hydrologic and climate conditions. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2016

Somatic growth dynamics of West Atlantic hawksbill sea turtles: a spatio-temporal perspective

Somatic growth dynamics are an integrated response to environmental conditions. Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are long-lived, major consumers in coral reef habitats that move over broad geographic areas (hundreds to thousands of kilometers). We evaluated spatio-temporal effects on hawksbill growth dynamics over a 33-yr period and 24 study sites throughout the West Atlantic and explored relationships between growth dynamics and climate indices. We compiled the largest ever data set on somatic growth rates for hawksbills – 3541 growth increments from 1980 to 2013. Using generalized additive mixed model analyses, we evaluated 10 covariates, including spatial and temporal variation, that could affect growth rates. Growth rates throughout the region responded similarly over space and time. The lack of a spatial effect or spatio-temporal interaction and the very strong temporal effect reveal that growth rates in West Atlantic hawksbills are likely driven by region-wide forces. Between 1997 and 2013, mean growth rates declined significantly and steadily by 18%. Regional climate indices have significant relationships with annual growth rates with 0- or 1-yr lags: positive with the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (correlation = 0.99) and negative with Caribbean sea surface temperature (correlation = −0.85). Declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs. Main conclusions The decadal declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on the foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, the trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2016

Using structural equation modeling to link human activities to wetland ecological integrity

The integrity of wetlands is of global concern. A common approach to evaluating ecological integrity involves bioassessment procedures that quantify the degree to which communities deviate from historical norms. While helpful, bioassessment provides little information about how altered conditions connect to community response. More detailed information is needed for conservation and restoration. We have illustrated an approach to addressing this challenge using structural equation modeling (SEM) and long-term monitoring data from Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP). Wetlands in RMNP are threatened by a complex history of anthropogenic disturbance including direct alteration of hydrologic regimes; elimination of elk, wolves, and grizzly bears; reintroduction of elk (absent their primary predators); and the extirpation of beaver. More recently, nonnative moose were introduced to the region and have expanded into the park. Bioassessment suggests that up to half of the park's wetlands are not in reference condition. We developed and evaluated a general hypothesis about how human alterations influence wetland integrity and then develop a specific model using RMNP wetlands. Bioassessment revealed three bioindicators that appear to be highly sensitive to human disturbance (HD): (1) conservatism, (2) degree of invasion, and (3) cover of native forbs. SEM analyses suggest several ways human activities have impacted wetland integrity and the landscape of RMNP. First, degradation is highest where the combined effects of all types of direct HD have been the greatest (i.e., there is a general, overall effect). Second, specific HDs appear to create a “mixed-bag” of complex indirect effects, including reduced invasion and increased conservatism, but also reduced native forb cover. Some of these effects are associated with alterations to hydrologic regimes, while others are associated with altered shrub production. Third, landscape features created by historical beaver activity continue to influence wetland integrity years after beavers have abandoned sites via persistent landforms and reduced biomass of tall shrubs. Our model provides a system-level perspective on wetland integrity and provides a context for future evaluations and investigations. It also suggests scientifically supported natural resource management strategies that can assist in the National Park Service mission of maintaining or, when indicated, restoring ecological integrity “unimpaired for future generations.”

Colorado↗
USGS2021

Integrated hierarchical models to inform management of transitional habitat and the recovery of a habitat specialist

Quantifying the contribution of habitat dynamics relative to intrinsic population processes in regulating species persistence remains an ongoing challenge in ecological and applied conservation. Understanding these drivers and their relationship is essential for managing habitat‐dependent species, especially those that specialize in transitional habitats. Limitations in the ability of natural disturbance to mediate transitional habitat dynamics have resulted in a decline in early‐ and mid‐successional vegetation structure and prompted the need for aggressive habitat management to replace natural perturbations and increase habitat structural complexity. We describe a collaborative effort with a group of independent land managers to design an adaptive management program for restoring an imperiled ecosystem and recovering declining populations of an endemic habitat specialist. We developed a set of integrated, hierarchical models to estimate management‐mediated transition rates among vegetation classes in two dominant scrub communities and the species response (local colonization and extinction probabilities) as a function of habitat state. Models were fit using a long‐term data set of habitat and occupancy observations from 361 Florida scrub‐jay territories across two Florida counties. Occupancy model results correspond closely to previous approaches of estimating differential survival and reproductive success associated with habitat conditions, with highest colonization and lowest extinction rates estimated for those habitat states found to have the highest rates of survival and reproduction. In addition to offering an innovative approach for jointly modeling habitat and species population dynamics, the program we describe will also be of interest from a management perspective by providing guidance for developing collaborative, adaptive management frameworks from the ground up. We engaged land managers via workshops to specify objectives and desired state‐variable conditions, identify management alternatives, and elicit consensus opinions on model parameters. Treating expert opinions as pseudo‐observations to define Dirichlet priors allowed us to make use of existing management knowledge. Formal learning was then accumulated by updating transition probability estimates as management activities were implemented over the study period. We believe this adaptive management framework provides a useful approach for increasing our understanding of complex ecological relationships and hope that it will be adopted by others who have interest in informing management and conservation efforts.

Florida↗
USGS2022

Relocated beaver can increase water storage and decrease stream temperature in headwater streams

Many areas are experiencing increasing stream temperatures due to climate change, and some are experiencing reduced summer stream flows and water availability. Because dam building and pond formation by beaver can increase water storage, stream cooling, and riparian ecosystem resilience, beaver have been proposed as a potential climate adaption tool. Despite the large number of studies that have evaluated how beaver activity may affect hydrology and water temperature, few experimental studies have quantified these outcomes following beaver relocation. We evaluated changes in temperature and water storage following the relocation of 69 beaver into 13 headwater stream reaches of the Skykomish River watershed within the Snohomish River basin, Washington, USA. We evaluated how beaver dams affected surface and groundwater storage and stream temperature. Successful relocations created 243 m 3 of surface water storage per 100 m of stream in the first year following relocation. Dams raised water table elevations by up to 0.33 m and stored approximately 2.4 times as much groundwater as surface water per relocation reach. Stream reaches downstream of dams exhibited an average decrease of 2.3°C during summer base-flow conditions. We also assessed how dam age, condition, maintenance frequency, and pond morphology influenced stream temperature at naturally colonized wetland complexes. Our findings demonstrate that dam building can increase water storage and reduce stream temperatures in the first year following successful beaver relocation. Fluvial and floodplain morphology of candidate reaches for relocation is an important consideration because it determines the type and magnitude of response. Relocation to reaches with existing small, abandoned ponds may address thermal criteria by conversion from warming to cooling reaches, whereas relocation within large, abandoned complexes or vacant habitat may result in greater water storage. Although beaver relocation can be an effective climate adaptation strategy to retain more stable hydrologic regimes and water quality in our study area, there appear to be regionally specific environmental and geomorphic factors that influence how beaver affect water storage and temperature. More research is needed to investigate how and why these regional differences affect water storage and stream temperature response in beaver-influenced systems.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Predicting animal home-range structure and transitions using a multistate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck biased random walk

The home‐range concept is central in animal ecology and behavior, and numerous mechanistic models have been developed to understand home range formation and maintenance. These mechanistic models usually assume a single, contiguous home range. Here we describe and implement a simple home‐range model that can accommodate multiple home‐range centers, form complex shapes, allow discontinuities in use patterns, and infer how external and internal variables affect movement and use patterns. The model assumes individuals associate with two or more home‐range centers and move among them with some estimable probability. Movement in and around home‐range centers is governed by a two‐dimensional Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck process, while transitions between centers are modeled as a stochastic state‐switching process. We augmented this base model by introducing environmental and demographic covariates that modify transition probabilities between home‐range centers and can be estimated to provide insight into the movement process. We demonstrate the model using telemetry data from sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) in California. The model was fit using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, which estimated transition probabilities, as well as unique Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck diffusion and centralizing tendency parameters. Estimated parameters could then be used to simulate movement and space use that was virtually indistinguishable from real data. We used Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) scores to assess model fit and determined that both wind and reproductive status were predictive of transitions between home‐range centers. Females were less likely to move between home‐range centers on windy days, less likely to move between centers when tending pups, and much more likely to move between centers just after weaning a pup. These tendencies are predicted by theoretical movement rules but were not previously known and show that our model can extract meaningful behavioral insight from complex movement data.

Ecology↗
USGS2018

Resource competition model predicts zonation and increasing nutrient use efficiency along a wetland salinity gradient

A trade-off between competitive ability and stress tolerance has been hypothesized and empirically supported to explain the zonation of species across stress gradients for a number of systems. Since stress often reduces plant productivity, one might expect a pattern of decreasing productivity across the zones of the stress gradient. However, this pattern is often not observed in coastal wetlands that show patterns of zonation along a salinity gradient. To address the potentially complex relationship between stress, zonation, and productivity in coastal wetlands, we developed a model of plant biomass as a function of resource competition and salinity stress. Analysis of the model confirms the conventional wisdom that a trade-off between competitive ability and stress tolerance is a necessary condition for zonation. It also suggests that a negative relationship between salinity and production can be overcome if (1) the supply of the limiting resource increases with greater salinity stress or (2) nutrient use efficiency increases with increasing salinity. We fit the equilibrium solution of the dynamic model to data from Louisiana coastal wetlands to test its ability to explain patterns of production across the landscape gradient and derive predictions that could be tested with independent data. We found support for a number of the model predictions, including patterns of decreasing competitive ability and increasing nutrient use efficiency across a gradient from freshwater to saline wetlands. In addition to providing a quantitative framework to support the mechanistic hypotheses of zonation, these results suggest that this simple model is a useful platform to further build upon, simulate and test mechanistic hypotheses of more complex patterns and phenomena in coastal wetlands.

Louisiana↗