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USGS2024

Flash drought: A state of the science review

In the two decades, since the advent of the term “flash drought,” considerable research has been directed toward the topic. Within the scientific community, we have actively forged a new paradigm that has avoided a chaotic evolution of conventional drought but instead recognizes that flash droughts have distinct dynamics and, particularly, impacts. We have moved beyond the initial debate over the definition of flash drought to a centralized focus on the triad of rapid onset, drought development, and associated impacts. The refinement toward this general set of principles has led to significant progress in determining key variables for monitoring flash drought development, identifying notable case studies, and compiling fundamental physical characteristics of flash drought. However, critical focus areas still remain, including advancing our knowledge on the atmospheric and oceanic drivers of flash drought; developing flash drought-specific detection indices and monitoring systems tailored to practitioners; improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of these events; constraining uncertainty in flash drought and impact projections; and using social science to further our understanding of impacts, particularly with regard to sectors that lie outside of our traditional hydroclimatological focus, such as wildfire management and food-security monitoring. Researchers and stakeholders working together on these critical topics will assure society is resilient to flash drought in a changing climate.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2020

Soil biogeochemical responses of a tropical forest to warming and hurricane disturbance

Tropical forests represent <15% of Earths terrestrial surface yet support >50% of the planets species and play a disproportionately large role in determining climate due to the vast amounts of carbon they store and exchange with the atmosphere. Currently, disturbance patterns in tropical ecosystems are changing due to factors such as increased land use pressure and an occurrence of hurricanes. At the same time, these regions are expected to experience unprecedented warming before 2100. Despite the importance of these ecosystems for forecasting the global consequences of multiple stressors, our understanding of how projected changes in climate and disturbance will affect the biogeochemical cycling of tropical forests remains in its infancy. Until now, no studies to our knowledge have evaluated forest recovery following hurricane disturbance within the context of concurrent climatic change. Here, we present soil biogeochemical results from a tropical forest field warming experiment in Puerto Rico where, a year after experimental warming began, Hurricanes Irma and Mara greatly altered the forest, allowing a unique opportunity to explore the interacting effects of hurricane disturbance and warming. We tracked post-hurricane forest recovery for a year without warming to assess legacy effects of prior warming on the disturbance response, and then reinitiated warming treatments to further evaluate interactions between forest recovery and warmer temperatures. The data showed that warming affected multiple aspects of soil biogeochemical cycling even in the first year of treatment, with particularly large positive effects on soil microbial biomass pools (e.g., increases of 54, 43, and 46% relative to the control plots were observed for microbial biomass carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, respectively after 6 months of warming). We also observed significant effects of the hurricanes on soil biogeochemical cycling, as well as interactive controls of warming and disturbance. Taken together, our results showed dynamic soil responses that suggest the future of biogeochemical cycling in this tropical wet forest will be strongly shaped by the directional effects of warming and the episodic effects of hurricanes.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2012

Seasonal zooplankton dynamics in Lake Michigan: disentangling impacts of resource limitation, ecosystem engineering, and predation during a critical ecosystem transition

We examined seasonal dynamics of zooplankton at an offshore station in Lake Michigan from 1994 to 2003 and 2007 to 2008. This period saw variable weather, declines in planktivorous fish abundance, the introduction and expansion of dreissenid mussels, and a slow decline in total phosphorus concentrations. After the major expansion of mussels into deep water (2007–2008), chlorophyll in spring declined sharply, Secchi depth increased markedly in all seasons, and planktivorous fish biomass declined to record-low levels. Overlaying these dramatic ecosystem-level changes, the zooplankton community exhibited complex seasonal dynamics between 1994–2003 and 2007–2008. Phenology of the zooplankton maximum was affected by onset of thermal stratification, but there was no other discernable effect due to temperature. Interannual variability in zooplankton biomass during 1994 and 2003 was strongly driven by planktivorous fish abundance, particularly age-0 and age-1 alewives. In 2007–2008, there were large decreases in Diacyclops thomasi and Daphnia mendotae possibly caused by food limitation as well as increased predation and indirect negative effects from increases in Bythotrephes longimanus abundance and in foraging efficiency associated with increased light penetration. The Bythotrephes increase was likely driven in part by decreased predation from yearling and older alewife. While there was a major decrease in epilimnetic–metalimnetic herbivorous cladocerans in 2007–2008, there was an increase in large omnivorous and predacious calanoid copepods, especially those in the hypolimnion. Thus, changes to the zooplankton community are the result of cascading, synergistic interactions, including a shift from vertebrate to invertebrate planktivory and mussel ecosystem impacts on light climate and chlorophyll.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2023

Field observations and long short-term memory modeling of spectral wave evolution at living shorelines in Chesapeake Bay, USA

Living shorelines as a nature-based solution for climate change adaptation were constructed in many places around the world. The success of this type of projects requires long-term monitoring for adaptive management. The paper presents a novel framework leveraging scientific machine learning methods for accurate and rapid prediction of long-term hydrodynamic forcing impacting living shorelines using short-term measurements of water levels and wind waves in the largest estuary in the U.S. Different from existing data-driven wave prediction models focusing on significant wave heights, this study is focused on the prediction of wave energy spectra in shallow water using winds and tides as the input feature and short-term measurements of wave spectra and water depths as the label. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models were developed using four-month wave measurements in the stormy seasons to predict integral wave parameters and energy spectra for multiple years. The developed models accurately predicted wave heights, peak periods, and energy spectra around the living shorelines, capturing complex wave dynamics, such as wave generation by wind, nonlinear wave-wave interactions, and depth-limited wave breaking in the shallow water of a large estuary. The validated models were then used to determine the long-term wave forcing impacting the living shorelines based on the modeled wave characteristics and spectra. Model results show that the surrogate models utilizing LSTM to predict wave spectra in the frequency domain enable long-term predictions of spectral wave evolution with a minimal computational cost. Our findings provide valuable insights into the efficacy of living shorelines in attenuating wave energy and demonstrate the utility of this approach in assessing the effectiveness of such living shoreline structures.

Applied Ocean Research↗

USGS2002

A census of marine life: Unknowable or just unknown?

As an introduction to the entire volume, this article outlines the relationships among the five elements of the Census of Marine Life (CoML) that create new knowledge: (1) The Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS), a marine component of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, links marine databases around the world to provide an Internet accessible, dynamic interface for comparing species-level, geo-referenced biodiversity data in relation to ocean habitats. The entire CoML field project data will be managed in and accessible through OBIS. (2) The History of Marine Animal Populations (HMAP) is a unique new synthesis of historical and biological research that will document marine biodiversity, globally, up to 500 years ago, before significant human impact, and store it in formats compatible with modern data in OBIS. (3) The Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research Working Group 118 monitors and recommends advanced marine technologies, ready to be routinely used in CoML field projects. (4) CoML Initial Field Projects develop and calibrate these technologies in selected regions to facilitate and accelerate global biodiversity research. As calibrated technologies and protocols are adopted in many regions, qualitative and quantitative biodiversity discoveries accumulate. (5) The Future of Marine Animal Populations (FMAP) program will insure that the data in OBIS are suitable for modeling and predicting changes in global biodiversity in response to fishing, pollution, and climate change challenges. It will make datasets available for hindcasting and forecasting analyses linked to physical ocean observations and assist in documenting the impacts of conservation efforts on sustainability.

Oceanologica Acta↗

USGS2002

Modeling and measuring snow for assessing climate change impacts in Glacier National Park, Montana

A 12-year program of global change research at Glacier National Park by the U.S. Geological Survey and numerous collaborators has made progress in quantifying the role of snow as a driver of mountain ecosystem processes. Spatially extensive snow surveys during the annual accumulation/ablation cycle covered two mountain watersheds and approximately 1,000 km2 . Over 7,000 snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements have been made through spring 2002. These augment two SNOTEL sites, 9 NRCS snow courses, and approximately 150 snow pit analyses. Snow data were used to establish spatially-explicit interannual variability in snowpack SWE. East of the Continental Divide, snowpack SWE was lower but also less variable than west of the Divide. Analysis of snowpacks suggest downward trends in SWE, a reduction in snow cover duration, and earlier melt-out dates during the past 52 years. Concurrently, high elevation forests and treelines have responded with increased growth. However, the 80 year record of snow from 3 NRCS snow courses reflects a strong influence from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, resulting in 20-30 year phases of greater or lesser mean SWE. Coupled with the fine-resolution spatial snow data from the two watersheds, the ecological consequences of changes in snowpack can be empirically assessed at a habitat patch scale. This will be required because snow distribution models have had varied success in simulating snowpack accumulation/ablation dynamics in these mountain watersheds, ranging from R2=0.38 for individual south-facing forested snow survey routes to R2=0.95 when aggregated to the watershed scale. Key ecological responses to snowpack changes occur below the watershed scale, such as snow-mediated expansion of forest into subalpine meadows, making continued spatially-explicit snow surveys a necessity.

Montana↗

USGS2019

Monitoring plans for Louisiana’s system-wide assessment and monitoring program (SWAMP). Version IV

The System-Wide Assessment and Monitoring Program (SWAMP) has been envisioned as a long-term monitoring program to ensure a comprehensive network of coastal data collection activities is in place to support the development, implementation, and adaptive management of the coastal protection and restoration program within coastal Louisiana. The Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) and Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring (BICM) programs have been implemented under SWAMP, while other aspects of system dynamics, including offshore and inland water-body boundary conditions, nontidal freshwater habitats, riverine conditions, risk status, and protection performance, are not presently the subject of CPRA-coordinated (Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority) monitoring. In order to implement these additional aspects of SWAMP, CPRA partnered with The Water Institute of the Gulf and others to develop 1) a programmatic monitoring plan for evaluating the effectiveness of the coastal protection and restoration program on a coastwide scale, and 2) basinwide monitoring plans that will incorporate the elements of the programmatic plan with specific data collection activities designed to capture effects within the basin. Monitoring plans were developed for Barataria Basin, Pontchartrain Region (includes Breton Sound, Pontchartrain and Mississippi River Delta Basins), and the western basins (Calcasieu-Sabine, Mermentau, Teche-Vermilion, Atchafalaya, and Terrebonne) for both the natural and human systems using a process to identify the monitoring variables, objectives, and sampling design. The monitoring variables and objectives identified fall under the general categories of weather and climate, biotic integrity, water quality, hydrology, physical terrain, population and demographics, housing and community characteristics, economy and employment, ecosystem dependency, residential properties protection, and critical infrastructure and essential services protection. A rigorous statistical analysis, examination of modeling needs, and thorough reviews of previous planning and monitoring efforts were conducted to develop the sampling designs for the natural and human system monitoring plans. The plan relies heavily on the use of existing data, thus, coordination with other agencies (e.g., LDEQ , LDWF) and CPRA’s existing monitoring programs (e.g., BICM, CRMS) is critical to the plan’s success. Implementation of the plans will require development of quality control and quality assurance protocols, specific standardized operating procedures for each of the data collection efforts, a data management plan, and a reporting framework to contribute to decision making and reducing uncertainty in management actions.

Louisiana↗

USGS2019

Constraining dissolved organic matter sources and temporal variability in a model sub-Arctic lake

Circumpolar lakes comprise ~ 1.4 million km 2 of arctic and subarctic landscapes and are vulnerable to change in vegetation, permafrost distribution, and hydrological conditions in response to climate warming. However, the composition and cycling of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is poorly understood for these lakes because most are remote and unstudied. The goal of this study was to assess timescale and source controls on DOM composition in Canvasback Lake, a shallow, sub-Arctic lake in interior Alaska with similar hydrologic and geomorphic characteristics to about a quarter of circumpolar lake ecosystems. Lake dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration varied by as much as 16% from the mean (3.34 mg L −1 change) through diel cycles in spring 2016 to fall 2017 and was accompanied by minor changes in DOM composition. At the seasonal scale, DOC concentration increased from spring through fall to very high concentrations under ice in winter. Decreases in both condensed aromatic and polyphenolic compound classes and lignin carbon-normalized yield, plus increased relative abundance of aliphatic compounds, suggests that DOM composition shifts from a pulse of allochthonous DOM in the spring to more autochthonous under-ice. These changes highlight the seasonally-dynamic nature of DOM in circumpolar lakes that are poorly captured by single-visit lake surveys and underscores the need to measure DOM properties and fate consistently across multiple timescales (i.e. seasonally) to better constrain the role of DOM in lake processes. To further assess DOM sources, a suite of endmember leachates were compared to bulk lake DOM, indicating solely allochthonous inputs are not well reflected in lake DOM, highlighting the role of degradation processes or mixing with autochthonous sources. Thus, Canvasback Lake appears less well connected to terrestrial inputs compared to past studies of northern high-latitude lakes and does not behave as previous boreal lake models suggest.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Evaluation of the Bushy Park Reservoir three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model, South Carolina, 2012–15

The Bushy Park Reservoir is a relatively shallow impoundment in southeastern South Carolina. The reservoir, located under a semi-tropical climate, is the principal water supply for the city of Charleston, South Carolina, and the surrounding areas including the Bushy Park Industrial Complex. Although there was an adequate supply of freshwater in the reservoir in 2022, water-quality concerns are present over taste-and-odor and saltwater-intrusion issues. From 2013 to 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Charleston Water System, engaged in a multi-year study of the hydrology and hydrodynamics of Bushy Park Reservoir to better understand factors affecting water-quality conditions in the reservoir. As part of this study, Charleston Water System worked with Tetra Tech, Inc., a consulting and engineering firm, to develop a Bushy Park Reservoir hydrodynamic and water-quality modeling framework, built upon earlier efforts by both Tetra Tech and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. At the completion of the new modeling framework, the USGS was requested to evaluate the calibrated hydrodynamic and water-quality model. The Bushy Park Reservoir Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model was calibrated for the time period from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2015. The general modeling approach for the newly revised modeling framework, as briefly detailed in this report, was developed with EFDC. The EFDC is a grid-based modeling package that can simulate three-dimensional flow, transport, and water quality in surface-water systems. This report evaluated the capacity of Tetra Tech’s Bushy Park EFDC model to simulate water discharge, water circulation, surface elevations, temperature, salinity, and other water-quality parameters. The USGS model review focused specifically on the following criteria: (1) determine if the model, with additional effort, could be developed into an adequate planning tool for Bushy Park Reservoir; (2) assess the capacity of the model to specifically address water-quality issues in the reservoir related to taste-and-odor and saltwater intrusions; and, (3) evaluate three preliminary water-management scenarios related to reduced water withdrawals in the reservoir and the effect on saltwater intrusion. Overall, the model was able to simulate discharge, flow velocity, and water-surface elevations with generally good agreement between the simulated and measured values. Specifically, the model was able to demonstrate good agreement for discharge at two USGS continuous discharge locations (USGS station 02172002; USGS station 02172040), with Wilmott index of agreements of 0.86 and 0.75, respectively. A total of seven USGS streamgages, located on the West Branch of the Cooper River, Durham Canal, and the Cooper River, were available for water-surface elevations, with index of agreements ranging from 0.74 to 0.99. However, model-simulated water-surface elevation ranges were appreciably high (compared to measured ranges) for two locations near Pinopolis Dam, farthest upstream on the West Branch of the Cooper River. This result may indicate that too much simulated tidal energy propagated through the model domain. For water temperature, 16 calibration stations were available for at least part of the 4-year simulation. The index of agreement range for temperature comparisons was from 0.95 to 1.00, indicating excellent agreement between the measured and simulated results. One of the primary future applications for the Bushy Park Reservoir EFDC model is to determine the extent of saltwater intrusions. A wide range in the salinity prediction quality was simulated with the model. The prediction quality ranged from an index of agreement of 0.15 at Cooper River approximately 2.75 miles southeast of the Tee, South Carolina, to 0.92 at West Branch Cooper River near Moncks Corner, South Carolina. Although the model did not accurately simulate some of the larger salinity deviations resulting during individual hydrologic events, the seasonal salinity trends were adequately simulated with the model during the study period (2012–15). Therefore, it may be difficult to simulate extreme hydrologic events, such as during large storms, where high salinity water is exchanged with Bushy Park Reservoir. There was agreement in model simulation with the measured data either on the quantitative index of agreement values or qualitative agreement in the seasonal salinity data trends. For water quality, the index of agreement values were generally low for total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate. Although general trends were adequately simulated at specific stations, particularly for Bushy Park Reservoir, the model-simulated fit was low across all the constituents described above with index of agreements usually below 0.50. A limitation for simulating nutrient concentrations across the model domain was the lack of characterization for the constituents directly entering Bushy Park Reservoir, or the lack of data directly attributed to the boundary condition (for example, the Cooper River). The other two calibrated water-quality constituents (besides the nutrients mentioned above) were dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a . Dissolved oxygen varied from index of agreement values from 0.58 to 0.94 for 11 stations, generally indicating agreement with the available measured data. Chlorophyll a , calibrated for seven stations, had a wider range from 0.11 to 0.74 for the index of agreement. With the current modeling framework, taste-and-odor events, related to cyanobacterial blooms, cannot be directly simulated. However, indirect estimates of cyanobacteria concentrations may be obtained by using the chlorophyll a model outputs, which represent total phytoplankton biomass, and the phytoplankton biovolume data by group (diatoms, green algae, cyanobacteria and others) collected from 2012 to 2015. For the Bushy Park Reservoir modeling framework to be used directly for taste-and-odor issues, cyanobacteria must be simulated and calibrated based on observations of cyanobacteria biomass concentrations. In addition to the cyanobacteria sampling conducted within the reservoir between 2012 and 2015, the new model calibration would also require new algae biomass data-collection efforts to characterize the external sources of cyanobacteria entering the Bushy Park Reservoir from tributaries, as well as the internal cycling, production, and decay of cyanobacteria in the hydrologic system. Further improvements to the EFDC model would include expanding the collection of boundary condition datasets, such as water-quality monitoring to determine improved nutrient loads into the model domain. Along with improved water-quality monitoring for the major boundary conditions, continuous discharge, for both Foster Creek and the Back River, would further constrain the flow balance and the loads into Bushy Park Reservoir. In addition to better boundary-condition characterization, it is important to better characterize possible shortcomings specifically to the model domain, such as the grid resolution, bathymetry, and numerical hydrodynamic errors. Further consideration of the model may involve a sensitivity analysis to determine if errors in the simulation outputs, such as discharge, water-surface elevations, and salinity, were more likely caused by poor boundary condition characterization or, specifically, the model setup. Three model scenarios were run with the revised Bushy Park Reservoir model: (1) reduced withdrawals from one of the large intake-discharge locations for Bushy Park Reservoir, the Williams Station; (2) elevated (above background levels) ocean water level causing saltwater intrusion from the ocean through Durham Canal into Bushy Park Reservoir; and (3) overtopping of the Back River Dam at the southernmost end of Bushy Park Reservoir. For the reduced withdrawals scenarios, the largest shift in flow resulted near the Williams Station intake, with the next largest flow change at the southern end of Bushy Park Reservoir, and a net increase in flow out of the Bushy Park Reservoir to the Cooper River by way of the Durham Canal. The effect resulting from scenario 3 on water quality and salinity was small, with larger increases for dissolved oxygen than other constituents at several monitoring stations. For the two scenarios related to saltwater intrusion (including dam overtopping), the changes in salinity generally were found to dissipate in the following 2 weeks and generally back to baseline salinity conditions within 3 months. This result did vary depending on the severity of the storm or length of the dam overtopping event.

South Carolina↗

USGS2016

Regional meteorological drivers and long term trends of winter-spring nitrate dynamics across watersheds in northeastern North America

This study evaluated the contribution of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events to annual and seasonal nitrate (N-NO3) export and identified the regional meteorological drivers of inter-annual variability in ROS N-NO3 export (ROS-N) at 9 headwater streams located across Ontario, Canada and the northeastern United States. Although on average only 3.3 % of annual precipitation fell as ROS during winter over the study period, these events contributed a significant proportion of annual and winter N-NO3 export at the majority of sites (average of 12 and 42 %, respectively); with the exception of the most northern catchment, where total winter precipitation was exceptionally low (average 77 mm). In years with a greater magnitude of ROS events, the timing of the peak N-NO3 export period (during spring melt) was redistributed to earlier in the year. Variability in ROS frequency and magnitude amongst sites was high and a generalised linear model demonstrated that this spatial variability could be explained by interactive effects between regional and site-specific drivers. Snowpack coverage was particularly important for explaining the site-specific ROS response. Specifically, ROS events were less common when higher temperatures eliminated snow cover despite increasing the proportion of winter rainfall, whereas ROS event frequency was greater at sites where sufficient snow cover remained. This research suggests that catchment response to changes in N deposition is sensitive to climate change; a vulnerability which appears to vary in intensity throughout the seasonally snow-covered temperate region. Furthermore, the sensitivity of stream N-NO3 export to ROS events and potential shifts (earlier) in the timing of N-NO3 export relative to other nutrients affect downstream nutrient stoichiometry and the community composition of phytoplankton and other algae.

Maine, New Hampshire, New York, Ontario,Vermont↗

USGS2026

Morphodynamic controls on the performance of dune-based coastal flood mitigation under sea-level rise

Dune-based adaptation is increasingly used as a nature-based solution for coastal flood mitigation, yet many assessments rely on hydrodynamic-only approaches that treat beach and dune morphology as static, neglecting storm-driven erosion that can degrade dune performance during extreme events. This study develops a process-based modeling framework coupling extreme value analysis of regional wave climate with XBeach surfbeat simulations to evaluate coastal flooding, erosion, and dune performance across three time horizons (2025, 2055, 2085) and four storm return periods (5, 20, 50, and 100 years) at two contrasting sites in Santa Cruz County, California. At Santa Cruz Beach, flood extent increases at an accelerating rate with sea-level rise (SLR) for a given return period, while higher return period storms exhibit diminishing incremental increases under fixed SLR conditions. Storm-scale morphodynamic feedbacks reduce predicted flood extent by up to 32.4% through profile adjustment and nearshore bar formation. Dune effectiveness is strongly regime-dependent, reducing flooding by up to 60% under collision-regime conditions but declining rapidly as the system transitions toward overwash and inundation under stronger storms and late-century SLR. Comparison of static and erodible dune representations shows that flood estimates are not consistently conservative, with differences reaching up to 54.3% depending on storm intensity and time horizon. At Capitola Beach, limited accommodation space and water-level-dominated dynamics collectively constrain morphodynamic adjustment, render the site near its inundation capacity under present-day conditions, and result in near-complete dune collapse and limited flood mitigation across all scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of site-specific regime evaluation, process-based morphodynamic modeling, and adaptive management when assessing dune-based adaptation under rising sea levels.

California↗

USGS2020

Deglacial temperature controls on no-analog community establishment in the Great Lakes Region

Understanding the drivers of vegetation dynamics and no-analog communities in eastern North America is hampered by a scarcity of independent temperature indicators. We present a new branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) temperature record from Bonnet Lake, Ohio (18 to 8 ka) and report uncertainty estimates based on Bayesian linear regression and bootstrapping. We also reanalyze a previously published brGDGT record from Silver Lake, Ohio, using improved chromatographic methods. All pollen- and brGDGT-based temperature reconstructions showed qualitatively similar deglacial trends but varying magnitudes. Separating 5- and 6- methyl brGDGTs resulted in substantially lower estimates of deglacial temperature variations (6.4 °C) than inferred from earlier brGDGT methods and pollen (11.8 °C, 12.0 °C respectively). Similar trends among proxies suggest good fidelity of brGDGTs to temperature, despite calibration uncertainties. At both sites, the rise and decline of no-analog communities closely track brGDGT-inferred temperatures, with a lag of 0 to 150 years. The timing of temperature and ecological events varies between Bonnet and Silver Lakes, likely due to age model uncertainties. Climate sensitivity analyses indicate a linear sensitivity of vegetation composition to temperature variations, albeit noisy and significant only with a 500-year bin. The formation of no-analog plant communities in the upper Midwest is closely linked to late-glacial warming, but other factors, such as temperature seasonality or end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, remain viable.

Great Lakes Region↗

USGS2022

Transforming Palmyra Atoll to native-tree dominance will increase net carbon storage and reduce dissolved organic carbon reef runoff

Native forests on tropical islands have been displaced by non-native species, leading to calls for their transformation. Simultaneously, there is increasing recognition that tropical forests can help sequester carbon that would otherwise enter the atmosphere. However, it is unclear if native forests sequester more or less carbon than human-altered landscapes. At Palmyra Atoll, efforts are underway to transform the rainforest composition from coconut palm ( Cocos nucifera ) dominated to native mixed-species. To better understand how this landscape-level change will alter the atoll’s carbon dynamics, we used field sampling, remote sensing, and parameter estimates from the literature to model the total carbon accumulation potential of Palmyra’s forest before and after transformation. The model predicted that replacing the C . nucifera plantation with native species would reduce aboveground biomass from 692.6 to 433.3 Mg C. However, expansion of the native Pisonia grandis and Heliotropium foertherianum forest community projected an increase in soil carbon to at least 13,590.8 Mg C, thereby increasing the atoll’s overall terrestrial carbon storage potential by 11.6%. Nearshore sites adjacent to C . nucifera canopy had a higher dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration (110.0 μMC) than sites adjacent to native forest (81.5 μMC), suggesting that, in conjunction with an increase in terrestrial carbon storage, replacing C . nucifera with native forest will reduce the DOC exported from the forest into in nearshore marine habitats. Lower DOC levels have potential benefits for corals and coral dependent communities. For tropical islands like Palmyra, reverting from C . nucifera dominance to native tree dominance could buffer projected climate change impacts by increasing carbon storage and reducing coral disease.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2017

Hydrologic and geomorphic changes resulting from episodic glacial lake outburst floods: Rio Colonia, Patagonia, Chile

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a prominent but poorly understood cryospheric hazard in a warming climate. We quantify the hydrologic and geomorphic response to 21 episodic GLOFs that began in April 2008 using multitemporal satellite imagery and field observations. Peak discharge exiting the source lake became progressively muted downstream. At ~40–60 km downstream, where the floods entered and traveled down the main stem Rio Baker, peak discharges were generally < 2000 m 3 s −1 , although these flows were still >1–2 times the peak annual discharge of this system, Chile's largest river by volume. As such, caution must be applied to empirical relationships relating lake volume to peak discharge, as the latter is dependent on where this observation is made along the flood path. The GLOFs and subsequent periods of free drainage resulted in > 40 m of incision, the net removal of ~25 × 10 6 m 3 of sediment from the source lake basin, and a nonsteady channel configuration downstream. These results demonstrate that GLOFs sourced from low‐order tributaries can produce significant floods on major main stem rivers, in addition to significantly altering sediment dynamics.

Cachet‐Colonia‐Baker Valley, Patagonia, Rio Coloni↗

USGS2024

Long-term occupancy monitoring reveals value of moderate disturbance for an open-habitat specialist, the Stephens' kangaroo rat (Dipodomys stephensi)

For species of conservation concern, long-term monitoring is vital to properly characterize changes in population distribution and abundance over time. In addition, long-term monitoring guides management decisions by informing and evaluating the efficacy of management actions. A long-term monitoring initiative for the federally threatened Stephens' Kangaroo rat ( Dipodomys stephensi, SKR) was established in 2005, across 628 hectares within Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP), San Diego, California, USA. From 2005 to 2018, we tracked trends in area occupied by SKR, trends in relative SKR densities within occupied habitat, and modeled probabilities of SKR occupancy, colonization, extinction, with habitat, climate, and disturbance covariates. Area occupied by SKR increased almost 2-fold from 2005 to 2018 on MCBCP, while density in occupied habitat increased almost 3-fold. Increased area occupied was correlated with increases in estimated density among years, indicating SKR population growth occurs by expansion into suitable habitat patches, as well as increases in numbers within occupied habitat. SKR occupancy was positively associated with gentle slopes (<10%) and moderate open ground (40–80%) and forb cover (>40%). They were more likely to colonize previously unoccupied habitat when there were moderate levels of open ground (40–80%) and low shrub cover (<20%), while more likely to go locally extinct in areas with high slopes (>10%), less open ground (<20%), and increased non-native grass cover (>40%). Additionally, probabilities of SKR occupancy and colonization were higher in areas with moderate levels of disturbance, which was positively associated with open ground and forb cover. We conclude that long-term occupancy and density monitoring is effective in informing status and trends of spatially dynamic species and that moderate habitat-based disturbance is compatible with the management of SKR.

California↗

USGS2025

Second Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM 2.0) workshop: USGCRP federal agency perspectives

U.S. federal leadership, mobilizing close interagency coordination across sectors, is key to tackling compound climate and human impacts on our nation’s water resources. Recognizing this need, federal agencies and academic collaborators conducted a series of workshops to advance Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM). IHTM is focused on supporting a multiscale framework to accelerate research insights, better integrate operational and planning perspectives, and bridge national-to-regional capabilities to address major interdependent societal water challenges. This framework leverages the capabilities of different agencies and institutional partners across sectors to advance a shared vision for use-inspired modeling and open science. The IHTM conceptual framework has developed over several community workshops in recent years: ● In September 2019, a community coordinating group on IHTM hosted an interagency workshop (“IHTM 1.0”) with support from NSF, DOE, and USGS. The resulting report identified the need for agencies to invest resources in designing pilot use cases, setting the stage for an integrated national IHTM capability. ● In November 2020, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) held a virtual Coastal-IHTM (C-IHTM) workshop in collaboration with the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice, which engages researchers across universities and national labs. Building on IHTM 1.0, this workshop aimed to identify coastal modeling capabilities and appropriate coastal applications of the IHTM framework. The workshop report detailed needs for open science, geographical or topical use cases, integrated modeling frameworks, and linking communities of practice. ● From October 31 to November 2, 2023, USGCRP hosted a hybrid IHTM 2.0 community workshop that brought together 160 scientists and managers from nine federal departments/agencies (DHS-FEMA, DOC-NOAA, DoD-USACE, DOE, DOI [U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), USGS], EPA, NASA, NSF, USDA [ARS, FS, NRCS]) and 32 non-federal academic, non-profit, and private institutions and consortiums. The workshop was organized by a federal Interagency Steering Committee with representatives from DOE, USGS, NSF, NASA, and NOAA, as well as a Scientific Organizing Committee comprising experts from academia and additional federal agency technical experts. The IHTM 2.0 workshop focused on moving the IHTM 1.0 concepts to action by making advances in designing national and regional integrated modeling experiments in five geographic testbeds. These modeling testbeds seek to facilitate collaborative water resources research and assessment that responds to societal needs, extending from basic research to resource management operations, including the assessment of water quantity, quality, and use at national and regional scales. Ultimately, we envision that the IHTM testbeds will improve our ability to provide water resources assessment scenarios to decision-makers and the public. This document summarizes USGCRP and member agencies’ perspectives of the IHTM 2.0 workshop. Sections 2 and 3 build on the work of the IHTM 2.0 workshop Scientific Organizing Committee to outline the importance of IHTM, summarize the workshop, and propose near- and medium-term IHTM priorities. Section 4 presents select ongoing and potential interagency activities that could help realize the IHTM 2.0 vision and align with three of USGCRP’s strategic goals for this decade: Advancing Science, Informing Decisions, and Engaging the Nation. Finally, Section 5 summarizes this report and offers information about how to connect with USGCRP’s IHTM activities. USGCRP and its member agencies are well-positioned to coordinate federal efforts to enhance IHTM capabilities in the coming years.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2009

Patterns and scales of phytoplankton variability in estuarine: Coastal ecosystems

Phytoplankton variability is a primary driver of chemical and biological dynamics in the coastal zone because it directly affects water quality, biogeochemical cycling of reactive elements, and food supply to consumer organisms. Much has been learned about patterns of phytoplankton variability within individual ecosystems, but patterns have not been compared across the diversity of ecosystem types where marine waters are influenced by connectivity to land. We extracted patterns from chlorophyll- a series measured at 84 estuarine–coastal sites, using a model that decomposes time series into an annual effect, mean seasonal pattern, and residual “events.” Comparisons across sites revealed a large range of variability patterns, with some dominated by a recurrent seasonal pattern, others dominated by annual (i.e., year-to-year) variability as trends or regime shifts and others dominated by the residual component, which includes exceptional bloom events such as red tides. Why is the partitioning of phytoplankton variability at these three scales so diverse? We propose a hypothesis to guide next steps of comparative analysis: large year-to-year variability is a response to disturbance from human activities or shifts in the climate system; strong seasonal patterns develop where the governing processes are linked to the annual climate cycle; and large event-scale variability occurs at sites highly enriched with nutrients. Patterns of phytoplankton variability are therefore shaped by the site-specific relative importance of disturbance, annual climatology, and nutrient enrichment.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2012

Geomorphic response to flow regulation and channel and floodplain alteration in the gravel-bedded Cedar River, Washington, USA

Decadal- to annual-scale analyses of changes to the fluvial form and processes of the Cedar River in Washington State, USA, reveal the effects of flow regulation, bank stabilization, and log-jam removal on a gravel-bedded river in a temperate climate. During the twentieth century, revetments were built along ~ 60% of the lower Cedar River's length and the 2-year return period flow decreased by 47% following flow regulation beginning in 1914. The formerly wide, anastomosing channel narrowed by over 50% from an average of 47 m in 1936 to 23 m in 1989 and became progressively single threaded. Subsequent high flows and localized revetment removal contributed to an increase in mean channel width to about 34 m by 2011. Channel migration rates between 1936 and 2011 were up to 8 m/year in reaches not confined by revetments or valley walls and less than analysis uncertainty throughout most of the Cedar River's length where bank armoring restricted channel movement. In unconfined reaches where large wood and sediment can be recruited, contemporary high flows, though smaller in magnitude than preregulation high flows, form and maintain geomorphic features such as pools, gravel bars, and side channels. Reaches confined by revetments remain mostly unmodified in the regulated flow regime. While high flows are important for maintaining channel dynamics in the Cedar River, their effectiveness is currently reduced by revetments, limited sediment supply, the lack of large wood available for recruitment to the channel, and decreased magnitude since flow regulation.

Washington↗