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At least 1,567 records · Page 87Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2022

The impacts of mangrove range expansion on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States: Current understanding, knowledge gaps, and emerging research needs

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. Mangrove range expansion may also affect wetland stability in the face of extreme climatic events and rising sea levels. Here, we review current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States. We also identify critical knowledge gaps and emerging research needs regarding the ecological and societal implications of salt marsh displacement by expanding mangrove forests. One consistent theme throughout our review is that there are ecological trade-offs for consideration by coastal managers. Mangrove expansion and marsh displacement can produce beneficial changes in some ecosystem services, while simultaneously producing detrimental changes in other services. Thus, there can be local-scale differences in perceptions of the impacts of mangrove expansion into salt marshes. For very specific local reasons, some individuals may see mangrove expansion as a positive change to be embraced, while others may see mangrove expansion as a negative change to be constrained.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2022

Editorial: Plant phenology shifts and their ecological and climatic consequences

Climate change is causing plant phenology to shift, with consequences for ecosystems and the Earth’s climate. Over the last decades, the timing of many important phenological events has advanced in spring, such as leaf emergence and flowering, or been delayed in fall, such as leaf coloration and leaf fall. The consequences of such phenological shifts are still largely unknown, but are hypothesized to have cascading effects on ecosystems, carbon and water cycles, and Earths’ climate. With this research topic, we aimed to synthesize and inspire innovative research in plant phenology to address research questions and challenges on the consequences of phenological shifts on ecosystem function and local hydrology. The articles presented here improve our understanding of the physiological mechanisms responsible for the current phenological changes in spring and fall and provide insight into some of the consequences of these changes on hydrological cycles and ecosystem functioning.

Frontiers in Plant Science↗
USGS2021

Connectivity of Mojave Desert tortoise populations—Management implications for maintaining a viable recovery network

Executive Summary The historic distribution of Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) was relatively continuous across the range, and the importance of tortoise habitat outside of designated tortoise conservation areas (TCAs) to recovery has long been recognized for its contributions to supporting gene flow between TCAs and to minimizing impacts and edge effects within TCAs. However, connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations has become a concern because of recent and proposed development of large tracts of desert tortoise habitat that cross, fragment, and surround designated conservation areas. This paper summarizes the underlying concepts and importance of connectivity for Mojave desert tortoise populations by reviewing current information on connectivity and providing information to managers for maintaining or enhancing desert tortoise population connectivity as they consider future proposals for development and management actions. Maintaining an ecological network for the Mojave desert tortoise, with a system of core habitats (TCAs) connected by linkages, is necessary to support demographically viable populations and long-term gene flow within and between TCAs. There are four points for wildlife and land-management agencies to consider when making decisions that could affect connectivity of Mojave desert tortoise populations (for example, in updating actions in resource management plans or amendments that could help maintain or restore functional connectivity in light of the latest information): Management of all desert tortoise habitat for persistence and connectivity . Desert tortoise populations continue to decline within most TCAs, and it is unlikely that trends are better in populations outside protected areas. Fragmentation exacerbates negative population trends by breaking large continuous populations into smaller isolated populations. Connectivity within large populations can enhance resilience to localized disturbances due to rescue by neighboring individuals. In contrast, smaller fragmented populations are resistant to rescue by their isolation and thus could suffer irreversible declines to extirpation from a variety of threats and stochastic events. Enhanced threat reduction to reverse declines within TCAs and to maintain occupied habitat in the surrounding matrix would help reduce the variability in population growth rates and improve the resilience of protected populations even while implementing efforts to improve connectivity. Each TCA has unique strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to support minimum sustainable populations based on areal extent and its ability to support population increases based on landscape connection with adjacent populations. Considering how proposed projects (inside or outside of TCAs) affect connectivity and the ability of TCAs to support at least 5,000 adult tortoises (the numerical goal for each TCA) could help managers to maintain the resilience of TCAs to population declines. The same project, in an alternative location, could have very different impacts on local and regional populations. For example, within the habitat matrix surrounding TCAs, narrowly delineated corridors may not allow for natural population dynamics if they do not accommodate overlapping home ranges along most of their widths so that tortoises reside, grow, find mates, and produce offspring that can replace older tortoises. In addition, most habitat outside TCAs may receive more surface disturbance than habitat within TCAs. Therefore, managing the entire remaining matrix of desert tortoise habitat for permeability may be better than delineating fixed corridors. These concepts apply, especially given uncertainty about long-term condition of habitat, within and outside of TCAs under a changing climate. Ultimately, questions such as “ What are the critical linkages that need to be protected ?” could be better framed as “ How can we manage the remaining habitat matrix in ways that sustain ecological processes and habitat suitability for special status species ?” Land-management decisions made in the context of the latter question may be more conducive to maintenance of a functional ecological network. Limitations on landscape-level disturbance across habitat managed for the desert tortoise Clearly delineating habitat linkages and differentiating them from non-delineated areas by the uses that are permitted or prohibited within them by specific management guidelines can help achieve functional connectivity. Such guidelines would be most effective if they considered and accounted for all surface disturbances (for example, temporary disturbances such as fiberoptic lines or off-highway vehicle routes, right-of-ways, utility-scale solar development, urbanization) to the extent possible. A weighted framework that varies with the permanence or severity of the disturbance, and can be additive to quantify cumulative effects, could be useful (Xiong, 2020). For example, minor roads can alter tortoise movements independently of other features (Peaden and others, 2017; Hromada and others, 2020), but if the isolated dirt road is accompanied by a powerline that encourages raven predation (Xiong, 2020), then the two features together may be additive. Ignoring minor or temporary disturbance on the landscape could result in a cumulatively large impact that is not explicitly acknowledged (Goble, 2009); therefore, understanding and quantifying all surface disturbance on a given landscape is prudent. In California, the Bureau of Land Management established 0.1–1.0 percent caps on new surface-disturbance for TCAs and mapped linkages that address the issues described in number 1 of this list. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona currently do not have surface-disturbance limits. Limits comparable to those in the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) would be 0.5 percent within TCAs and 1 percent within the linkages modeled by Averill-Murray and others (2013). Limits in some areas of California within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, such as Ivanpah Valley, are more restrictive, at 0.1 percent. Continuity across the state line in Nevada could be achieved with comparable limits in the adjacent portion of Ivanpah Valley, as well as the Greater Trout Canyon Translocation Area and the Stump Springs Regional Augmentation Site. These more restrictive limits would help protect remaining habitat in the major interstate connectivity pathway through Ivanpah Valley and focal areas of population augmentation that provide additional population connectivity along the western flank of the Spring Mountains. In a recent study that analyzed 13 years of desert tortoise monitoring data, nearly all desert tortoise observations were at sites in which 5 percent or less of the surrounding landscape within 1 kilometer was disturbed (Carter and others, 2020a). To help maintain tortoise habitability and permeability across all other non-conservation-designated tortoise habitat, all surface disturbance could be limited to less than 5-percent development per square kilometer because the 5-percent threshold for development is the point at which tortoise occupation drops precipitously (Carter and others, 2020a). However, although individual desert tortoises were observed at development levels up to 5 percent, we do not know the fitness or reproductive characteristics of these individuals. This level of development also may not allow for long-term persistence of healthy populations that are of adequate size needed for demographic or functional connectivity; therefore, a conservative interpretation suggests that, ideally, development could be lower. Lower development levels would be particularly useful in areas within the upper 5th percentile of connectivity values modeled by Gray and others (2019). Reducing ancillary threats in places where connectivity is restricted to narrow strips of habitat, for example, narrow mountain passes or vegetated strips between solar development, could enhance the functionality of these vulnerable linkages. In such areas, maintaining multiple, redundant linkages could further enhance overall connectivity. Minimization of mortality from roads and maximization of passage under roads . Roads pose a significant threat to the long-term persistence of local tortoise populations, and roads of high traffic volume lead to severe population declines, which ultimately fragments populations farther away from the roads. Three points (a.–c.) pertain to reducing direct mortality of tortoises on the many paved roads that cross desert tortoise habitat and to maintaining a minimal level of permeability across these roads: Tortoise-exclusion fencing tied into culverts, underpasses, overpasses, or other passages below roads in desert tortoise habitat, would limit vehicular mortality of tortoises and provide opportunities for movement across the roads. Installation of shade structures on the habitat side of fences installed in areas with narrow population-depletion zones would limit overheating of tortoises that may pace the fence. Passages below highways could be maintained or retrofitted to ensure safe tortoise access, for example, by filling eroded drop-offs or modifying erosion-control features such as rip-rap to make them safer and more passable for tortoises. Wildlife management agencies could work with transportation departments to develop construction standards that are consistent with hydrologic/erosion management goals, while also incorporating a design and materials consistent with tortoise survival and passage and make the standards widely available. The process would be most effective if the status of passages was regularly monitored and built into management plans. Healthy tortoise populations along fenced highways could be supported by ensuring that land inside tortoise-exclusion fences is not so degraded that it leads to degradation of tortoise habitat outside the exclusion areas. For example, severe invasive plant infestations inside a highway exclusion could cause an increase of invasive plants outside the exclusion area and degrade habitat; therefore, invasive plants inside road rights of way could be mown or treated with herbicide to limit their spread into adjacent tortoise habitat and minimize the risk of these plants carrying wildfires into adjacent habitat. Adaptation of management based on new information . Future research will continue to build upon and refine models related to desert tortoise population connectivity and develop new ones. New models could consider landscape levels of development and be constructed such that they share common foundations to support future synthesis efforts. If model development was undertaken in partnership with entities that are responsible for management of desert tortoise habitat, it would facilitate incorporation of current and future modeling results into their land management decisions. There are specific topics that may be clarified with further evaluation: The effects of climate change on desert tortoise habitat, distribution, and population connectivity; The effects of large-scale fires, especially within repeatedly burned habitat, on desert tortoise distribution and population connectivity; The ability of solar energy facilities or similar developments to support tortoise movement and presence by leaving washes intact; leaving native vegetation intact whenever possible, or if not possible, mowing the site, allowing vegetation to re-sprout, and managing weeds; and allowing tortoises to occupy the sites; and The design and frequency of underpasses necessary to maintain functional demographic and genetic connectivity across linear features, like highways.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗
USGS2018

Behavioural plasticity modulates temperature-related constraints on foraging time for a montane mammal

Contemporary climate change is altering temperature profiles across the globe. Increasing temperatures can reduce the amount of time during which conditions are suitable for animals to engage in essential activities, such as securing food. Behavioural plasticity, the ability to alter behaviour in response to the environment, may provide animals with a tool to adjust to changes in the availability of suitable thermal conditions. The extent to which individuals can alter fitness‐enhancing behaviours, such as food collection, to proximately buffer variation in temperature, however, remains unclear. Even less well understood are the potential performance advantages of flexible strategies among endotherms. We examined the degree to which individuals altered rates of food collection in response to temperature, and two potential benefits, using the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ), a temperature‐sensitive, food‐hoarding mammal, as a model. From July–September 2013–2015, we used motion‐activated cameras and in situ temperature loggers to examine pika food‐caching activity for 72 individuals across 10 sites in the central Rocky Mountains, USA. We quantified % nitrogen by cache volume as a metric of cache quality, and the number of events during which pikas were active in temperatures ≥25°C as a measure of potential thermoregulatory stress. We found a strong negative effect of temperature on the rate at which pikas cached food. Individual responses to temperature varied substantially in both the level of food‐collecting activity and in the degree to which individuals shifted activity with warming temperature. After accounting for available foraging time, individuals that exhibited greater plasticity collected a comparable amount of nitrogen, while simultaneously experiencing fewer occasions in which temperatures eclipsed estimated thermal tolerances. By varying food‐collection norms of reaction, individuals were able to plastically respond to temperature‐driven reductions in foraging time. Through this increased flexibility, individuals amassed food caches of comparable quality, while minimizing exposure to potentially stressful thermal conditions. Our results suggest that, given sufficient resource quality and availability, plasticity in foraging activity may help temperature‐limited endotherms adjust to climate‐related constraints on foraging time.

Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Paleoecology of a Northern Michigan Lake and the relationship among climate, vegetation, and Great Lakes water levels

We reconstructed Holocene water-level and vegetation dynamics based on pollen and plant macrofossils from a coastal lake in Upper Michigan. Our primary objective was to test the hypothesis that major fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels resulted in part from climatic changes. We also used our data to provide temporal constraints to the mid-Holocene dry period in Upper Michigan. From 9600 to 8600 cal yr B.P. a shallow, lacustrine environment characterized the Mud Lake basin. A Sphagnum -dominated wetland occupied the basin during the mid-Holocene dry period (∼8600 to 6600 cal yr B.P.). The basin flooded at 6600 cal yr B.P. as a result of rising water levels associated with the onset of the Nipissing I phase of ancestral Lake Superior. This flooding event occurred contemporaneously with a well-documented regional expansion of Tsuga . Betula pollen increased during the Nipissing II phase (4500 cal yr B.P.). Macrofossil evidence from Mud Lake suggests that Betula alleghaniensis expansion was primarily responsible for the rising Betula pollen percentages. Major regional and local vegetational changes were associated with all the major Holocene highstands of the western Great Lakes (Nipissing I, Nipissing II, and Algoma). Traditional interpretations of Great Lakes water-level history should be revised to include a major role of climate.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2023

Decoupling of species and plant communities of the U.S. Southwest: A CCSM4 climate scenario example

Climate change is predicted to alter the current climate suitability under which plant species and communities occur. Predictions of change have focused on individual species or entire communities, but theory indicates plants will not respond uniformly to climate change within or between communities. We developed models of the current climate suitability (the baseline) of 66 plant species characteristic of 29 plant communities of the arid Southwest, made predictions of climate suitability for the species under two climate change scenarios for the years 2041–2060 (Community Climate System Model version 1.4 [CCSM4] global climate model [GCM], Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios), and calculated changes in suitability between the future scenarios and baseline for each species. Climate change exposure for the entire community was then evaluated as the composite change of the predicted future climate suitability of the communities' characteristic species. Loss of 25% or more of favorable climate suitability was predicted for 39 (RCP4.5) and 51 (RCP8.5) species within their communities. The proportion of the study area with all species in a community having unfavorable suitability was 17.9% (RCP4.5) and 21.3% (RCP8.5) compared to 6.2% for baseline. We show that suitable climates for species within a plant community are not expected to be a single community-wide trajectory, but rather changes in climate suitability will be unique to the species and not experienced uniformly across the extant communities. This decoupling of plant species within their traditional plant communities may lead to a cascade of unanticipated ecological responses and unprecedented challenges to resource management. Our study results can inform hypotheses of the future successional track of plant communities, characteristic species, and the decisions resource managers must make for management.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2022

Multi-species amphibian monitoring across a protected landscape: Critical reflections on 15 years of wetland monitoring in Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks

Widespread amphibian declines were well documented at the end of the 20th century, raising concerns about the need to identify individual and interactive contributors to this global trend. At the same time, there was growing interest in the use of amphibians as ecological indicators. In the United States, wetland and amphibian monitoring programs were launched in some national parks as a necessary first step to evaluating the status and trends of amphibian populations within some of North America’s most protected areas. In Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks, a multi-species amphibian monitoring program was launched by many of the authors in 2006 and continues to this day. This Viewpoint Article serves as a self-evaluation of our journey from conception through implementation of an ongoing, long-term monitoring program. This self-evaluation should provide a framework and guidance for other monitoring programs. We address whether we are fulfilling the program’s main objective of describing status and trends of the four amphibian species, discuss how a one-size-fits-all monitoring approach does not serve all species equally, and describe opportunities to bolster our core work using emerging statistical approaches and thoughtful integration of remote sensing and molecular tools. We also describe how the data generated over the program’s first 15 years have been useful beyond our initial goal of characterizing status and trend. Notably, our integration of climate datasets has allowed us to describe wetland and species-specific amphibian responses to variations in climate drivers. Documenting climate links to amphibian occurrence and their primary habitats has allowed us to identify which species, habitat types, and subregions within this large, protected landscape are most vulnerable to anticipated climate change. Recognizing that tools and threats change over time, it will be important to adapt our original monitoring design to maximize opportunities and use of resulting information. Maintaining engagement by multiple stakeholders and expanding our funding portfolio will also be necessary to sustain our program into the future. Finally, collaboration has become standard for long-term, cross-jurisdictional, landscape-scale monitoring. We argue that collaborative monitoring facilitates resource sharing, leveraging of limited funds, completion of work, and mutual learning. Such collaboration also increases the efficacy of conservation.

Wyoming↗
USGS2012

Is the extent of glaciation limited by marine gas-hydrates?

Methane may have been released to the atmosphere during the Quaternary from Arctic shelf gas-hydrates as a result of thermal decomposition caused by climatic warming and rising sea-level; this release of methane (a greenhouse gas) may represent a positive feedback on global warming [Revelle, 1983; Kvenvolden, 1988a; Nisbet, 1990]. We consider the response to sea-level changes by the immense amount of gas-hydrate that exists in continental rise sediments, and suggest that the reverse situation may apply—that release of methane trapped in the deep-sea sediments as gas-hydrates may provide a negative feedback to advancing glaciation. Methane is likely to be released from deep-sea gas-hydrates as sea-level falls because methane gas-hydrates decompose with pressure decrease. Methane would be released to sediment pore space at shallow sub-bottom depths (100's of meters beneath the seafloor, commonly at water depths of 500 to 4,000 m) producing zones of markedly decreased sediment strength, leading to slumping [Carpenter, 1981; Kayen, 1988] and abrupt release of the gas. Methane is likely to be released to the atmosphere in spikes that become larger and more frequent as glaciation progresses. Because addition of methane to the atmosphere warms the planet, this process provides a negative feedback to glaciation, and could trigger deglaciation.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2022

High-resolution 3D forest structure explains ecomorphological trait variation in assemblages of saproxylic beetles

Climate, topography and the 3D structure of forests are major drivers affecting local species communities. However, little is known about how the specific functional traits of saproxylic (wood-living) beetles, involved in the recycling of wood, might be affected by those environmental characteristics. Here, we combine ecological and morphological traits available for saproxylic beetles and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data in Bayesian trait-based joint species distribution models to study how traits drive the distributions of more than 230 species in temperate forests of Europe. We found that elevation (as a proxy for temperature and precipitation) and the proportion of conifers played important roles in species occurrences while variables related to habitat heterogeneity and forest complexity were less relevant. Furthermore, we showed that local communities were shaped by environmental variation primarily through their ecological traits whereas morphological traits were involved only marginally. As predicted, ecological traits influenced species' responses to forest structure, and to other environmental variation, with canopy niche, wood decay niche and host preference as the most important ecological traits. Conversely, no links between morphological traits and environmental characteristics were observed. Both models, however, revealed strong phylogenetic signal in species' response to environmental characteristics. These findings imply that alterations of climate and tree species composition have the potential to alter saproxylic beetle communities in temperate forests. Additionally, ecological traits help explain species' responses to environmental characteristics and thus should prove useful in predicting their responses to future change. It remains challenging, however, to link simple morphological traits to species' complex ecological niches.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2007

Evaluation of grassland dynamics in the northern-tibet plateau of china using remote sensing and climate data

The grassland ecosystem in the Northern-Tibet Plateau (NTP) of China is very sensitive to weather and climate conditions of the region. In this study, we investigate the spatial and temporal variations of the grassland ecosystem in the NTP using the NOAA/AVHRR ten-day maximum NDVI composite data of 1981-2001. The relationships among Vegetation Peak-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (VP-NDVI) and climate variables were quantified for six counties within the NTP. The notable and uneven alterations of the grassland in response to variation of climate and human impact in the NTP were revealed. Over the last two decades of the 20th century, the maximum greenness of the grassland has exhibited high increase, slight increase, no-change, slight decrease and high decrease, each occupies 0.27%, 8.71%, 77.27%, 13.06% and 0.69% of the total area of the NTP, respectively. A remarkable increase (decrease) in VP-NDVI occurred in the central-eastern (eastern) NTP whereas little change was observed in the western and northwestern NTP. A strong negative relationship between VP-NDVI and ET 0 was found in sub-frigid, semi-arid and frigid- arid regions of the NTP (i.e., Nakchu, Shantsa, Palgon and Amdo counties), suggesting that the ETo is one limiting factor affecting grassland degradation. In the temperate-humid, sub-frigid and sub-humid regions of the NTP (Chali and Sokshan counties), a significant inverse correlation between VP-NDVI and population indicates that human activities have adversely affected the grassland condition as was previously reported in the literature. Results from this research suggest that the alteration and degradation of the grassland in the lower altitude of the NTP over the last two decades of the 20th century are likely caused by variations of climate and anthropogenic activities. ?? 2007 by MDPI.

Sensors↗
USGS2011

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (~500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (~5.3 kg C m −2 ), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (~0.1 kg C m −2 ). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ~3.3 kg C m −2 , whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1–2.2 kg C m −2 ). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ~6.1 kg C m −2 , whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ~5.6 kg C m −2 . A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ~5.4 kg C m −2 . Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2010

Santa Barbara Basin diatom and silicoflagellate response to global climate anomalies during the past 2200 years

Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) diatom and silicoflagellate assemblages are quantified from a box core record spanning AD 1940-2001 and an Ocean Drilling Program Hole 893A record from ???220 BC to AD 1880. The combined relative abundance of the diatoms Fragilariopsis doliolus and Nitzschia interrupteseriata from continuous two-year sampling intervals in the box core varies with sea surface temperature (SST), suggesting its utility in SST reconstruction. The assemblage data from the ODP 893A record indicate a broad interval of generally cooler SSTs between ???AD 800 and 1350, which corresponds to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), a period of generally warmer temperatures across other regions of the northern hemisphere. The assemblages also indicate an interval of generally warmer SSTs between ???AD 1400 and 1800, a period of otherwise global cooling referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA). The changes in assemblages of diatoms and silicoflagellates support the hypothesis that the widespread droughts of the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the Western US were associated with cooler eastern North Pacific SST. The box core assemblages have higher percentages of tropical and subtropical compared to temperate and subpolar species than the ODP samples, reflecting a response of phytoplankton communities to an unusual 20th century warming. Pseudonitzschia australis, a diatom linked with domoic acid production, begins to become more common (>3% of the diatom assemblage) in the box core only after AD 1985, suggesting a link to anthropogenic activity. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Quaternary International↗
USGS2011

Elevation trends and shrink-swell response of wetland soils to flooding and drying

Given the potential for a projected acceleration in sea-level rise to impact wetland sustainability over the next century, a better understanding is needed of climate-related drivers that influence the processes controlling wetland elevation. Changes in local hydrology and groundwater conditions can cause short-term perturbations to marsh elevation trends through shrink–swell of marsh soils. To better understand the magnitude of these perturbations and their impacts on marsh elevation trends, we measured vertical accretion and elevation dynamics in microtidal marshes in Texas and Louisiana during and after the extreme drought conditions that existed there from 1998 to 2000. In a Louisiana marsh, elevation was controlled by subsurface hydrologic fluxes occurring below the root zone but above the 4 m depth (i.e., the base of the surface elevation table benchmark) that were related to regional drought and local meteorological conditions, with marsh elevation tracking water level variations closely. In Texas, a rapid decline in marsh elevation was related to severe drought conditions, which lowered local groundwater levels. Unfragmented marshes experienced smaller water level drawdowns and more rapid marsh elevation recovery than fragmented marshes. It appears that extended drawdowns lead to increased substrate consolidation making it less resilient to respond to future favorable conditions. Overall, changes in water storage lead to rapid and large short-term impacts on marsh elevation that are as much as five times greater than the long-term elevation trend, indicating the importance of long-term, high-resolution elevation data sets to understand the prolonged effects of water deficits on marsh elevation change.

Louisiana, Texas↗
USGS2016

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2014

Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize ( Zea mays ) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.

Nebraska↗
USGS2014

Response of plant community structure and primary productivity to experimental drought and flooding in an Alaskan fen

Northern peatlands represent a long-term net sink for atmospheric CO 2 , but these ecosystems can shift from net carbon (C) sinks to sources based on changing climate and environmental conditions. In particular, changes in water availability associated with climate control peatland vegetation and carbon uptake processes. We examined the influence of changing hydrology on plant species abundance and ecosystem primary production in an Alaskan fen by manipulating the water table in field treatments to mimic either sustained flooding (raised water table) or drought (lowered water table) conditions for 6 years. We found that water table treatments altered plant species abundance by increasing sedge and grass cover in the raised water table treatment and reducing moss cover while increasing vascular green area in the lowered water table treatment. Gross primary productivity was lower in the lowered treatment than in the other plots, although there were no differences in total biomass or vascular net primary productivity among the treatments. Overall, our results indicate that vegetation abundance was more sensitive to variation in water table than total biomass and vascular biomass accrual. Finally, in our experimental peatland, drought had stronger consequences for change in vegetation abundance and ecosystem function than sustained flooding.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Eolian features in the Western Desert of Egypt and some applications to Mars

Relations of landform types to wind regimes, bedrock composition, sediment supply, and topography are shown by field studies and satellite photographs of the Western Desert of Egypt. This desert, which lies at the core of the largest hyperarid region on earth, provides analogs of Martian wind-formed features. These include sand dunes, alternating light and dark streaks, knob ‘shadows,’ and yardangs. Surface particles have been segregated by wind into deposits (dunes, sand sheets, and light streaks) that can be differentiated by their grain size distributions, surface shapes, and colors. Throughgoing sand of mostly fine to medium grain size is migrating southward in longitudinal dune belts and barchan chains whose long axes lie parallel to the prevailing northerly winds, but topographic variations such as scarps and depressions strongly influence the zones of deposition and dune morphology. Sand from the longitudinal dunes on the plains is commonly redistributed into barchans in the depressions. These barchans are generally simple crescents that are morphologically similar to many of the dunes seen on Viking orbiter pictures of the north polar sand sea on mars. Light streaks are depositional features consisting of dune belts and elongate sheets of coarse to medium sand and granules. Intervening dark streaks are erosional features consisting of strips of desert-varnished bedrock and lag gravel surfaces exposed between the sand deposits. The shape of both light and dark streaks is controlled by wind flow around topographic highs. Dark zones (shadows) in the lee of mountains, hills, and knobs are erosional products from the topographic highs; they change shape only in response to movement of the adjacent lighter-colored sand deposits. Streamlined yardangs carved in crystalline limestone constitute one of the largest yardang fields on earth. Yardangs occur also in sandstone of the Nubian Series and in lacustrine sediments. The variables that affect the patterns of wind erosion and deposition in the Western Desert are topographic effects on wind velocities and directions, resistance of the bedrock, sand supply, and climatic change with time; vegetation is essentially absent and is not a controlling factor.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗