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USGS2010

Historical changes in annual peak flows in Maine and implications for flood-frequency analyses

To safely and economically design bridges, culverts, and other structures that are in or near streams (fig. 1 for example), it is necessary to determine the magnitude of peak streamflows such as the 100-year flow. Flood-frequency analyses use statistical methods to compute peak flows for selected recurrence intervals (100 years, for example). The recurrence interval is the average number of years between peak flows that are equal to or greater than a specified peak flow. Floodfrequency analyses are based on annual peak flows at a stream. It has long been assumed that annual peak streamflows are stationary over very long periods of time, except in river basins subject to urbanization, regulation, and other direct human activities. Stationarity is the concept that natural systems fluctuate within an envelope of variability that does not change over time (Milly and others, 2008). Because of the potential effects of global warming on peak flows, the assumption of peak-flow stationarity has recently been questioned (Milly and others, 2008). Maine has many streamgaging stations with 50 to 105 years of recorded annual peak streamflows. This long-term record has been tested for historical flood-frequency stationarity, to provide some insight into future flood frequency (Hodgkins, 2010). This fact sheet, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), provides a partial summary of the results of the study by Hodgkins (2010).

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2011

Source-water susceptibility assessment in Texas—Approach and methodology

Public water systems provide potable water for the public's use. The Safe Drinking Water Act amendments of 1996 required States to prepare a source-water susceptibility assessment (SWSA) for each public water system (PWS). States were required to determine the source of water for each PWS, the origin of any contaminant of concern (COC) monitored or to be monitored, and the susceptibility of the public water system to COC exposure, to protect public water supplies from contamination. In Texas, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) was responsible for preparing SWSAs for the more than 6,000 public water systems, representing more than 18,000 surface-water intakes or groundwater wells. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) worked in cooperation with TCEQ to develop the Source Water Assessment Program (SWAP) approach and methodology. Texas' SWAP meets all requirements of the Safe Drinking Water Act and ultimately provides the TCEQ with a comprehensive tool for protection of public water systems from contamination by up to 247 individual COCs. TCEQ staff identified both the list of contaminants to be assessed and contaminant threshold values (THR) to be applied. COCs were chosen because they were regulated contaminants, were expected to become regulated contaminants in the near future, or were unregulated but thought to represent long-term health concerns. THRs were based on maximum contaminant levels from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s National Primary Drinking Water Regulations. For reporting purposes, COCs were grouped into seven contaminant groups: inorganic compounds, volatile organic compounds, synthetic organic compounds, radiochemicals, disinfection byproducts, microbial organisms, and physical properties. Expanding on the TCEQ's definition of susceptibility, subject-matter expert working groups formulated the SWSA approach based on assumptions that natural processes and human activities contribute COCs in quantities that vary in space and time; that increased levels of COC-producing activities within a source area may increase susceptibility to COC exposure; and that natural and manmade conditions within the source area may increase, decrease, or have no observable effect on susceptibility to COC exposure. Incorporating these assumptions, eight SWSA components were defined: identification, delineation, intrinsic susceptibility, point- and nonpoint-source susceptibility, contaminant occurrence, area-of-primary influence, and summary components. Spatial datasets were prepared to represent approximately 170 attributes or indicators used in the assessment process. These primarily were static datasets (approximately 46 gigabytes (GB) in size). Selected datasets such as PWS surface-water-intake or groundwater-well locations and potential source of contamination (PSOC) locations were updated weekly. Completed assessments were archived, and that database is approximately 10 GB in size. SWSA components currently (2011) are implemented in the Source Water Assessment Program-Decision Support System (SWAP-DSS) computer software, specifically developed to produce SWSAs. On execution of the software, the components work to identify the source of water for the well or intake, assess intrinsic susceptibility of the water- supply source, assess susceptibility to contamination with COCs from point and nonpoint sources, identify any previous detections of COCs from existing water-quality databases, and summarize the results. Each water-supply source's susceptibility is assessed, source results are weighted by source capacity (when a PWS has multiple sources), and results are combined into a single SWSA for the PWS.'SWSA reports are generated using the software; during 2003, more than 6,000 reports were provided to PWS operators and the public. The ability to produce detailed or summary reports for individual sources, and detailed or summary reports for a PWS, by COC or COC group was a unique capability of SWAP-DSS. In 2004, the TCEQ began a rotating schedule for SWSA wherein one-third of PWSs statewide would be assessed annually, or sooner if protection-program activities deemed it necessary, and that schedule has continued to the present. Cooperative efforts by the TCEQ and the USGS for SWAP software maintenance and enhancements ended in 2011 with the TCEQ assuming responsibility for all tasks.

Texas↗

USGS1994

Particulate carbonate matter in snow from selected sites in the south-central Rocky Mountains

Trends in snow acidity reflect the balance between strong acid inputs and reactions with neutralizing materials. Carbonate dust can be an important contributor of buffering capacity to snow however, its concentration in snow is difficult to quantify because it dissolves rapidly in snowmelt. In snow with neutral or acidic pH, most calcite would dissolve during sample melting if snow samples were processed using standard techniques. Here a method is described for separating particulate carbonate matter from snow. Snow samples were melted in solutions close to saturation with calcite, decreasing the dissolution rate by a factor of 100-200 compared with natural melting of snow. Particulate matter larger than 0.45 ??m in diameter was then filtered from solution and analysed for carbonate content. Particulate carbonate matter concentrations are reported for 25 sites in the south-central Rocky Mountains. Results are compared with Ca2+ and H+ concentrations and regional trends are evaluated. In Colorado, mean particulate carbonate in snow was 43 ??g kg-1 at sampling sites in the southern mountains and only 4 ??g kg-1 at sites in the northern mountains. The higher calcite concentrations in the south probably are related to the proximity of sampling sites to major outcrops of limestone. Particulate carbonate at sampling sites in Utah and Wyoming ranged from 3-35 ??g kg-1. The levels of particulate calcite measured in snow samples are sufficient to neutralize an average of 0.4 ??eq H+ kg-1 snow. Strong acid anion concentrations in samples from east of Craig, Colorado, were 30-50% higher than in samples from the Colorado Front Range, but H+ concentrations were 400-600% higher east of Craig. Relatively low Ca2+ concentrations in the samples from east of Craig indicate that the difference in snow acidity was due mostly to lower concentrations of neutralizing materials.Trends in snow acidity reflect the balance between strong acid inputs and reactions with neutralizing materials. Carbonate dust can be an important contributor of buffering capacity to snow; however, its concentration in snow is difficult to quantify because it dissolves rapidly in snowmelt. In snow with neutral or acidic pH, most calcite would dissolve during sample melting if snow samples were processed using standard techniques. Here a method is described for separating particulate carbonate matter from snow. Snow samples were melted in solutions close to saturation with calcite, decreasing the dissolution rate by a factor of 100-200 compared with natural melting of snow. Particulate matter larger than .45 micrometers in diameter was then filtered from solution and analyzed for carbonate content.

Atmospheric Environment↗

USGS1994

Cytonuclear genetics of experimental fish hybrid zones inside Biosphere 2

Two species of mosquitofish (family Poeciliidae ) known to hybridize in nature were introduced into freshwater habitats inside Biosphere 2, and their population genetics were monitored after 2 years. Within four to six generations, nuclear and cytoplasmic markers characteristic of Gambusia holbrooki had risen greatly in frequency, although some Gambusia affinis alleles and haplotypes were retained primarily in recombinant genotypes, indicative of introgressive hybridization. The temporal cytonuclear dynamics proved similar to population genetic changes observed in replicated experimental hybrid populations outside of Biosphere 2, thus indicating strong directional selection favoring G. holbrooki genotypes across the range of environments monitored. When interpreted in the context of species-specific population demographies observed previously, results suggest that the extremely rapid evolution in these zones of secondary contact is attributable primarily to species differences in life-history traits.

PNAS↗

USGS2009

Oblique Aerial Photography of the Arctic Coast of Alaska, Nulavik to Demarcation Point, August 7-10, 2006

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, an area of strategic economic importance to the United States, is home to remote Native American communities and encompasses unique habitats of global significance. Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast is chronic and widespread; recent evidence suggests that erosion rates are among the highest in the world (up to ~16 m/yr) and may be accelerating. Coastal erosion adversely impacts energy-related infrastructure, natural shoreline habitats, and Native American communities. Climate change is thought to be a key component of recent environmental changes in the Arctic. Reduced sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is one of the probable mechanisms responsible for increasing coastal exposure to wave attack and the resulting increase in erosion. Extended periods of permafrost melting and associated decrease in bluff cohesion and stability are another possible source of the increase in erosion. Several studies of selected areas on the Alaska coast document past shoreline positions and coastal change, but none have examined the entire North coast systematically. Results from these studies indicate high rates of coastal retreat that vary spatially along the coast. To address the need for a comprehensive and regionally consistent evaluation of shoreline change along the North coast of Alaska, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of their Coastal and Marine Geology Program's (CMGP) National Assessment of Shoreline Change Study, is evaluating shoreline change from Peard Bay to the United States/Canadian border, using historical maps and photography and a standardized methodology that is consistent with other shoreline-change studies along the Nation's coastlines (for example, URL http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/shoreline-change/ (last accessed March 2, 2009). This report contains photographs collected during an aerial-reconnaissance survey conducted in support of this study. An accompanying ESRI ArcGIS shape file (and plain-text copy) indicates the position of the aircraft and time when each photograph was taken. The USGS-CMGP Field Activity ID for the survey is A-1-06-AK, and more information on the survey and how to view the photographs using Google Earth software is available online at: URL http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/a/a106ak/html/a-1-06-ak.meta.html (last accessed March 2, 2009).

Data Series↗

USGS2010

Oblique Aerial Photography of the Arctic Coast of Alaska, Cape Sabine to Milne Point, July 16-19, 2009

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, an area of strategic economic importance to the United States, is home to remote Native American communities and encompasses unique habitats of global significance. Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast is chronic and widespread; recent evidence suggests that erosion rates are among the highest in the world (as high as ~16 m/yr) and may be accelerating. Coastal erosion adversely impacts energy-related infrastructure, natural shoreline habitats, and Native American communities. Climate change is thought to be a key component of recent environmental changes in the Arctic. Reduced sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is one of the probable mechanisms responsible for increasing coastal exposure to wave attack and the resulting increase in erosion. Extended periods of permafrost melting and associated decreases in bluff cohesion and stability are another possible source of the increase in erosion. Several studies of selected areas on the Alaska coast document past shoreline positions and coastal change, but none have examined the entire North coast systematically. Results from these studies indicate high rates of coastal retreat that vary spatially along the coast. To address the need for a comprehensive and regionally consistent evaluation of shoreline change along the North coast of Alaska, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of their Coastal and Marine Geology Program's (CMGP) National Assessment of Shoreline Change Study, is evaluating shoreline change from Peard Bay to the United States/Canadian border, using historical maps and photography and a standardized methodology that is consistent with other shoreline-change studies along the Nation's coastlines (see, for example, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/shoreline-change/, last accessed February 12, 2010). This is the second in a series of publications containing photographs collected during reconnaissance surveys conducted in support of the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Study. An accompanying ESRI ArcGIS shape file (and plaintext copy) indicates the position of the aircraft and time when each photograph was taken. The USGS-CMGP Field Activity ID for the survey is A-5-09-AK, and more information on the survey and how to view the photographs using Google Earth software is available online at http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/a/a509ak/html/a-5-09-ak.photos.kmz (last accessed February 12, 2010). The initial report ?Oblique aerial photography of the Arctic coast of Alaska, Nulavik to Demarcation Point, August 7-10, 2006? is available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/436/, and the associated Google Earth .kmz file is available at http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/a/a106ak/html/a-1-06-ak.photos.kmz (last accessed February 12, 2010).

Data Series↗

USGS2011

Assessment of hyporheic zone, flood-plain, soil-gas, soil, and surface-water contamination at the Old Incinerator Area, Fort Gordon, Georgia, 2009-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Army Environmental and Natural Resources Management Office of the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, Georgia, assessed the hyporheic zone, flood plain, soil gas, soil, and surface-water for contaminants at the Old Incinerator Area at Fort Gordon, from October 2009 to September 2010. The assessment included the detection of organic contaminants in the hyporheic zone, flood plain, soil gas, and surface water. In addition, the organic contaminant assessment included the analysis of explosives and chemical agents in selected areas. Inorganic contaminants were assessed in soil and surface-water samples. The assessment was conducted to provide environmental contamination data to the U.S. Army at Fort Gordon pursuant to requirements of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Part B Hazardous Waste Permit process. Total petroleum hydrocarbons were detected above the method detection level in all 13 samplers deployed in the hyporheic zone and flood plain of an unnamed tributary to Spirit Creek. The combined concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and total xylene were detected at 3 of the 13 samplers. Other organic compounds detected in one sampler included octane and trichloroethylene. In the passive soil-gas survey, 28 of the 60 samplers detected total petroleum hydrocarbons above the method detection level. Additionally, 11 of the 60 samplers detected the combined masses of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and total xylene above the method detection level. Other compounds detected above the method detection level in the passive soil-gas survey included octane, trimethylbenzene, perchlorethylene, and chloroform. Subsequent to the passive soil-gas survey, six areas determined to have relatively high contaminant mass were selected, and soil-gas samplers were deployed, collected, and analyzed for explosives and chemical agents. No explosives or chemical agents were detected above their method detection levels, but those that were detected were above the nondetection level. The same six locations that were sampled for explosives and chemical agents were selected for the collection of soil samples. No metals that exceeded the Regional Screening Levels for Industrial Soils as classified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency were detected at any of the six Old Incinerator Area locations. The soil samples also were compared to values from the ambient, uncontaminated (background) levels for soils in South Carolina. Because South Carolina is adjacent to Georgia and the soils in the coastal plain are similar, these comparisons are valid. No similar values are available for Georgia to use for comparison purposes. The only metal detected above the ambient background levels for South Carolina was barium. A surface-water sample collected from a tributary west and north of the Old Incinerator Area was analyzed for volatile organic compounds, semivolatile organic compounds, and inorganic compounds (metals). The only volatile organic and (or) semivolatile organic compound that was detected above the laboratory reporting level was toluene. The compounds 4-isopropyl-1-methylbenzene and isophorone were detected above the nondetection level but below the laboratory reporting level and were estimated. These compounds were detected at levels below the maximum contaminant levels set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Primary Drinking Water Standard. Iron was the only inorganic compound detected in the surface-water sample that exceeded the maximum contaminant level set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Secondary Drinking Water Standard. No other inorganic compounds exceeded the maximum contaminant levels for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Primary Drinking Water Standard, National Secondary Drinking Water Standard, or the Georgia In-Stream Water Quality Standard.

Georgia↗

USGS2005

Instream flow characterization of upper Salmon River basin streams, central Idaho, 2004

Anadromous fish populations in the Columbia River Basin have plummeted in the last 100 years. This severe decline led to Federal listing of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) stocks as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the 1990s. Historically, the upper Salmon River Basin (upstream of the confluence with the Pahsimeroi River) in Idaho provided migration corridors and significant habitat for these ESA-listed species, in addition to the ESA-listed bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Human development has modified the original streamflow conditions in many streams in the upper Salmon River Basin. Summer streamflow modifications resulting from irrigation practices, have directly affected quantity and quality of fish habitat and also have affected migration and (or) access to suitable spawning and rearing habitat for these fish. As a result of these ESA listings and Action 149 of the Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation was tasked to conduct streamflow characterization studies in the upper Salmon River Basin to clearly define habitat requirements for effective species management and habitat restoration. These studies include collection of habitat and streamflow information for the Physical Habitat Simulation System model, a widely applied method to determine relations between habitat and discharge requirements for various fish species and life stages. Model results can be used by resource managers to guide habitat restoration efforts by evaluating potential fish habitat and passage improvements by increasing streamflow. In 2004, instream flow characterization studies were completed on Salmon River and Beaver, Pole, Champion, Iron, Thompson, and Squaw Creeks. Continuous streamflow data were recorded upstream of all diversions on Salmon River and Pole, Iron, Thompson, and Squaw Creeks. In addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regional regression equations. This report describes Physical Habitat Simulation System modeling results for bull trout, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout during summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations were summarized for adult and spawning life stages at each study site. Adult fish passage and discharge relations were evaluated at specific transects identified as a potential low-streamflow passage barrier at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites were summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various water temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Continuous summer water temperature data recorded in 2003 and streamflow relations were evaluated for Fourth of July Creek using the Stream Segment Temperature model that simulates mean and maximum daily water temperatures with changes in streamflow. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Idaho↗

USGS1994

Detailed study of irrigation drainage in and near wildlife management areas, west-central Nevada, 1987-90. Part C. Summary of irrigation-drainage effects on water quality, bottom sediment, and biota

This report presents a summary of the detailed scientific study of Stillwater Wildlife Management Area and other nearby wetlands in west-central Nevada during 1987-90. The work was funded by the National Irrigation Water Quality Program of the U.S. Department of the Interior with the overall objectives of determining (1) the extent, magnitude, and effects of selected water-quality constituents associated with irrigation drainage on fish, wildlife, and human health, and (2) the sources and exposure pathways that cause contamination where adverse effects are documented. Much of the information in this report was summarized from two previously published interpretive reports that were completed to fulfill study objectives. Where applicable, data for the study area from other published sources also were utilized. The results of these studies indicate that the aquatic biota in natural wetlands of the Carson Desert are adversely affected by hydrological and geochemical sources and processes in the Newlands Irrigation Project area. Reactions between water and naturally occurring minerals in the shallow alluvial aquifer increase concentrations of potentially toxic constituents in ground water that eventually enters the wetlands. Once in the wetlands, these constituents are furhter concentrated by evaporation and transpiration. Water from some agricultural drains that enter Stillwater WMA was acutely toxic to aquatic organisms. The drains in the agricultural areas, which eventually discharge to the wetlands, were also implicated as sites of uptake of selenium and mercury by aquatic organisms.

Nevada↗

USGS1984

Potential primary and secondary hazards of avicides

There are six chemicals or groups of chemicals that are currently registered as avicides that can be used in some or all of the U.S. Most of these chemicals, because of their diverse chemical composition and innate toxicological effects, present somewhat different primary and secondary hazards to avian and mammalian predators and scavengers. Of the chemicals reviewed, all appear to present some degree of primary hazard to non-target birds and mammals; however, PA-14, the Starlicide family of chemicals and fenthion appear to be the least hazardous when used according to use directions. 4-Aminopyridine, endrin and strychnine, because of their high acute toxicity and lack of selectivity, must be considered potentially more hazardous. With respect to secondary hazards, the ranking of chemicals changes considerably and only PA-14 appears to present a negligible hazard. The Starlicide family of chemicals presents negligible hazards to most animal species under currently registered uses, but may be potentially hazardous to cats and owls under specific use conditions. Two chemicals, 4-aminopyridine and strychnine, are potentially more hazardous to predatory and scavenger animals due to their highly toxic nature and rapid lethal effects in target species, leaving unassimilated chemical in the gastrointestinal tract. The remaining chemicals, endrin and fenthion, have been shown to possess the potential for more significant secondary poisoning; however, because of restrictive uses, most of the potential hazards have been avoided in operational use.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1970

Study and interpretation of the chemical characteristics of natural water

The chemical composition of natural water is derived from many different sources of solutes, including gases and aerosols from the atmosphere, weathering and erosion of rocks and soil, solution or precipitation reactions occurring below the land surface, and cultural effects resulting from activities of man. Some of the processes of solution or precipitation of minerals can be closely evaluated by means of principles of chemical equilibrium including the law of mass action and the Nernst equation. Other processes are irreversible and require consideration of reaction mechanisms and rates. The chemical composition of the crustal rocks of the earth and the composition of the ocean and the atmosphere are significant in evaluating sources of solutes in natural fresh water. The ways in which solutes are taken up or precipitated and the amounts present in solution are influenced by many environmental factors, especially climate, structure and position: of rock strata, and biochemical effects associated with life cycles of plants and animals, both microscopic and macroscopic. Taken all together and in application with the further influence of the general circulation of all water in the hydrologic cycle, the chemical principles and environmental factors form a basis for the developing science of natural-water chemistry. Fundamental data used in the determination of water quality are obtained by the chemical analysis of water samples in the laboratory or onsite sensing of chemical properties in the field. Sampling is complicated by changes in composition of moving water and the effects of particulate suspended material. Most of the constituents determined are reported in gravimetric units, usually milligrams per liter or milliequivalents per liter. More than 60 constituents and properties are included in water analyses frequently enough to provide a basis for consideration of the sources from which each is generally derived, most probable forms of elements and ions in solution, solubility controls, expected concentration ranges and other chemical factors. Concentrations of elements that are commonly present in amounts less than a few tens of micrograms per liter cannot always be easily explained, but present information suggests many are controlled by solubility of hydroxide or carbonate or by sorption on solid particles. Chemical analyses may be grouped and statistically evaluated by averages, frequency distributions, or ion correlations to summarize large volumes of data. Graphing of analyses or of groups of analyses aids in showing chemical relationships among waters, probable sources of solutes, areal water-quality regimen, and water-resources evaluation. Graphs may show water type based on chemical composition, relationships among ions, or groups of ions in individual waters or many waters considered simultaneously. The relationships of water quality to hydrologic parameters, such as stream discharge rate or ground-water flow patterns, can be shown by mathematical equations, graphs, and maps. About 75 water analyses selected from the literature are tabulated to illustrate the relationships described, and some of these, along with many others that are not tabulated, are also utilized in demonstrating graphing and mapping techniques. Relationships of water composition to source rock type are illustrated by graphs of some of the tabulated analyses. Activities of man may modify water composition extensively through direct effects of pollution and indirect results of water development, such as intrusion of sea water in ground-water aquifiers. Water-quality standards for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use have been published by various agencies. Irrigation project requirements for water quality are particularly intricate. Fundamental knowledge of processes that control natural water composition is required for rational management of water quality.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS1959

Study and interpretation of the chemical characteristics of natural water

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS1996

The effect of light on lake herring ( Coregonus artedi ) reactive volume

The lake herring ( Coregonus artedi ) is an important coldwater planktivore in the Laurentian Great Lakes and in smaller inland lakes in portions of Canada and the northern United States. Lake herring cruise the pelagia and feed selectively in both gulping and particulate modes. They are visual predators in environments with adequate illumination. Visual predation by fish consists of a series of discrete steps. We studied the first step in the predation sequence, reaction to prey, at light intensities of 2–1500 Lx in a simulated pelagic environment at 10–13°C. We measured lake herring reactive distances, the distance at which a prey item will be detected and attacked, to live Limnocalanus macrurus , a natural prey of lake herring in Lake Superior. We used the reactive distances and associated angles of bearing and elevation, which described the location of the prey relative to the lake herring, to calculate reactive volume. This reactive volume can be envisioned as an irregular sphere surrounding the fish, within which prey are detected and attacked. All of the attacks on prey occurred in the anterior portions of the sagittal and lateral planes of the lake herring, as would be expected for a pelagic, cruising fish. The reactive volume surrounding the lake herring was generally spherical, but was more irregular than the simple spheres, hemispheres, cylinders, cones or other geometries assumed in previous studies. The reactive distances and the reactive volume changed with light intensity and were significantly smaller at 2–10 Lx than at 40–1500 Lx. At 40–1500 Lx, the reactive volume was expanded over that observed at 2–10 Lx laterally and caudally. Collectively our results indicate that lake herring can visually forage most effectively in environments with light levels >10 Lx.

Hydrobiologia↗

USGS2025

Sources and risk factors for nitrate, pathogens, and fecal contamination of private wells in rural southwestern Wisconsin, USA

Household well water can be degraded by contaminants from the land's surface, but private well owners lack means to protect the source water from neighboring disturbances. Rural residents of southwestern Wisconsin, USA, rely on private well water, and the combination of land use and fractured carbonate bedrock makes groundwater vulnerable to contamination. To identify the extent, sources, and risk factors of private well contamination, randomly selected wells sampled during two-day periods in fall (n = 301) and spring (n = 529) were analyzed for nitrate and indicator bacteria, and a subset (n = 138) was sampled across four seasonal events for analysis of pathogens and microbial source tracking markers by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Risk factors representing land use, hydrology, geology, and well construction were analyzed for associations with contamination in multivariable models. The importance of risk factors varied by contaminant, illustrating the multifaceted nature of rural groundwater quality. Nitrate contamination was associated with agricultural land use, and wells with casings that extended below a shale aquitard accessed less contaminated water than those drawing water from above it. Human fecal microbes were detected in 64 wells (46%), and rainfall was the key risk factor for contamination, indicating that wastewater from septic systems was available to contaminate wells when transport conditions were favorable. Manure microbes from cattle/ruminants and pigs were detected in 33 and 13 wells, respectively, and concentrations increased with the hectarage of cultivated land near wells. Pathogen genes for viruses, bacteria, and protozoa were detected in 66 wells (48%), including more detections of zoonotic than human-specific pathogens, and human Bacteroides , an indicator of wastewater, was an equivocal predictor of pathogen presence in private wells. Characterizing important elements of the setting, like geology, and identifying sources and risk factors for contaminants can inform landscape-level policies to protect groundwater quality.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Optical properties of water for prediction of wastewater contamination, human-associated bacteria, and fecal indicator bacteria in surface water at three watershed scales

Relations between spectral absorbance and fluorescence properties of water and human-associated and fecal indicator bacteria were developed for facilitating field sensor applications to estimate wastewater contamination in waterways. Leaking wastewater conveyance infrastructure commonly contaminates receiving waters. Methods to quantify such contamination can be time consuming, expensive, and often nonspecific. Human-associated bacteria are wastewater specific but require discrete sampling and laboratory analyses, introducing latency. Human sewage has fluorescence and absorbance properties different than those of natural waters. To assist real-time field sensor development, this study investigated optical properties for use as surrogates for human-associated bacteria to estimate wastewater prevalence in environmental waters. Three spatial scales were studied: Eight watershed-scale sites, five subwatershed-scale sites, and 213 storm sewers and open channels within three small watersheds (small-scale sites) were sampled (996 total samples) for optical properties, human-associated bacteria, fecal indicator bacteria, and, for selected samples, human viruses. Regression analysis indicated that bacteria concentrations could be estimated by optical properties used in existing field sensors for watershed and subwatershed scales. Human virus occurrence increased with modeled human-associated bacteria concentration, providing confidence in these regressions as surrogates for wastewater contamination. Adequate regressions were not found for small-scale sites to reliably estimate bacteria concentrations likely due to inconsistent local sanitary sewer inputs.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Wisconsin↗

USGS2019

Identifying and characterizing extrapolation in multivariate response data

Faced with limitations in data availability, funding, and time constraints, ecologists are often tasked with making predictions beyond the range of their data. In ecological studies, it is not always obvious when and where extrapolation occurs because of the multivariate nature of the data. Previous work on identifying extrapolation has focused on univariate response data, but these methods are not directly applicable to multivariate response data, which are common in ecological investigations. In this paper, we extend previous work that identified extrapolation by applying the predictive variance from the univariate setting to the multivariate case. We propose using the trace or determinant of the predictive variance matrix to obtain a scalar value measure that, when paired with a selected cutoff value, allows for delineation between prediction and extrapolation. We illustrate our approach through an analysis of jointly modeled lake nutrients and indicators of algal biomass and water clarity in over 7000 inland lakes from across the Northeast and Mid-west US. In addition, we outline novel exploratory approaches for identifying regions of covariate space where extrapolation is more likely to occur using classification and regression trees. The use of our Multivariate Predictive Variance (MVPV) measures and multiple cutoff values when exploring the validity of predictions made from multivariate statistical models can help guide ecological inferences.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2007

Effects of flow diversions on water and habitat quality: Examples from California's highly manipulated Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta

We use selected monitoring data to illustrate how localized water diversions from seasonal barriers, gate operations, and export pumps alter water quality across the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (California). Dynamics of water-quality variability are complex because the Delta is a mixing zone of water from the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers, agricultural return water, and the San Francisco Estuary. Each source has distinct water-quality characteristics, and the contribution of each source varies in response to natural hydrologic variability and water diversions. We use simulations with a tidal hydrodynamic model to reveal how three diversion events, as case studies, influence water quality through their alteration of Delta-wide water circulation patterns and flushing time. Reduction of export pumping decreases the proportion of Sacramento- to San Joaquin-derived fresh water in the central Delta, leading to rapid increases in salinity. Delta Cross Channel gate operations control salinity in the western Delta and alter the freshwater source distribution in the central Delta. Removal of the head of Old River barrier, in autumn, increases the flushing time of the Stockton Ship Channel from days to weeks, contributing to a depletion of dissolved oxygen. Each shift in water quality has implications either for habitat quality or municipal drinking water, illustrating the importance of a systems view to anticipate the suite of changes induced by flow manipulations, and to minimize the conflicts inherent in allocations of scarce resources to meet multiple objectives.

California↗

USGS2015

Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal ( Phoca largha ) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total abundance produced estimates that largely conformed to our a priori expectation. Although care must be taken to tailor models to match the study population and survey data available, we argue that hierarchical spatiotemporal statistical models represent a powerful way forward for estimating abundance and explaining variation in the distribution of dynamical populations.

Ecological Monographs↗