Evaluation of selected dam-break flood-wave models by using field data
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This report contains 10 interpretive cross sections and an integrated text describing the geology of parts of the Colorado, White River, and Death Valley regional ground-water flow systems, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. The primary purpose of the report is to provide geologic framework data for input into a numerical ground-water model. Therefore, the stratigraphic and structural summaries are written in a hydrogeologic context. The oldest rocks (basement) are Early Proterozoic metamorphic and intrusive crystalline rocks that are considered confining units because of their low permeability. Late Proterozoic to Lower Cambrian clastic units overlie the crystalline rocks and are also considered confining units within the regional flow systems. Above the clastic units are Middle Cambrian to Lower Permian carbonate rocks that are the primary aquifers in the flow systems. The Middle Cambrian to Lower Permian carbonate rocks are overlain by a sequence of mainly clastic rocks of late Paleozoic to Mesozoic age that are mostly considered confining units, but they may be permeable where faulted. Tertiary volcanic and plutonic rocks are exposed in the northern and southern parts of the study area. In the Clover and Delamar Mountains, these rocks are highly deformed by north- and northwest-striking normal and strike-slip faults that are probably important conduits in transmitting ground water from the basins in the northern Colorado and White River flow systems to basins in the southern part of the flow systems. The youngest rocks in the region are Tertiary to Quaternary basin-fill deposits. These rocks consist of middle to late Tertiary sediments consisting of limestone, conglomerate, sandstone, tuff, and gypsum, and younger Quaternary surficial units consisting of alluvium, colluvium, playa deposits, and eolian deposits. Basin-fill deposits are both aquifers and aquitards.
This report describes the Groundwater-Management (GWM) Process for MODFLOW-2005, the 2005 version of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model. GWM can solve a broad range of groundwater-management problems by combined use of simulation- and optimization-modeling techniques. These problems include limiting groundwater-level declines or streamflow depletions, managing groundwater withdrawals, and conjunctively using groundwater and surface-water resources. GWM was initially released for the 2000 version of MODFLOW. Several modifications and enhancements have been made to GWM since its initial release to increase the scope of the program's capabilities and to improve its operation and reporting of results. The new code, which is called GWM-2005, also was designed to support the local grid refinement capability of MODFLOW-2005. Local grid refinement allows for the simulation of one or more higher resolution local grids (referred to as child models) within a coarser grid parent model. Local grid refinement is often needed to improve simulation accuracy in regions where hydraulic gradients change substantially over short distances or in areas requiring detailed representation of aquifer heterogeneity. GWM-2005 can be used to formulate and solve groundwater-management problems that include components in both parent and child models. Although local grid refinement increases simulation accuracy, it can also substantially increase simulation run times.
Ground water is one of the Nation's most important natural resources. It provides about 40 percent of our Nation's public water supply. Currently, nearly one-half of New Jersey's drinking-water is supplied by over 300,000 wells that serve more than 4.3 million people (John P. Nawyn, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 2007). New Jersey's population is projected to grow by more than a million people by 2030 (U.S. Census Bureau, accessed March 2, 2006, at http://www.census.gov). As demand for water increases, managing the development and use of the ground-water resource so that the supply can be maintained for an indefinite time without causing unacceptable environmental, economic, or social consequences is of paramount importance. This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) New Jersey Water Science Center Observation Well Networks. Record low ground-water levels during water year 2006 (October 1, 2005 to September 30, 2006) are listed, and water levels in six selected water-table observation wells and three selected confined wells are shown in hydrographs. The report describes the trends in water levels in various confined aquifers in southern New Jersey and in water-table and fracture rock aquifers throughout the State. Web site addresses to access the data also are included. The USGS has operated a network of observation wells in New Jersey since 1923 for the purpose of monitoring ground-water-level changes throughout the State. Long-term systematic measurement of water levels in observation wells provides the data needed to evaluate changes in the ground-water resource over time. Records of ground-water levels are used to evaluate the effects of climate changes and water-supply development, to develop ground-water models, and to forecast trends.
Future development of the Garrison Diversion Unit may divert water from the Missouri River into the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North for municipal and industrial use. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's Canals, Rivers, and Reservoirs Salinity Accounting Procedures model can be used to predict the effect various operating plans could have on water quality in the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North. The model uses, as Input, monthly means of streamflow and selected water-quality constituents for a 54-year period at 28 nodes on the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North. This report provides methods for estimating monthly mean concentrations of selected water-quality constituents that can be used for input to and calibration of the salinity model. Mater-quality data for 32 gaging stations can be used to define selected water-quality characteristics at the 28 model nodes. Materquality data were retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Mater Data Storage and Retrieval System data base and statistical summaries were prepared. The frequency of water-quality data collection at the gaging stations is inadequate to define monthly mean concentrations of the individual water-quality constituents for all months for the 54-year period; therefore, methods for estimating monthly mean concentrations were developed. Relations between selected water-quality constituents [dissolved solids, hardness (as CaCO 3 ), sodium, sulfate, and chloride] and streamflow were developed as the primary method to estimate monthly mean concentrations. Relations between specific conductance and streamflow and relations between selected water-quality constituents [dissolved solids, hardness (as CaCO 3 ), sodium, sulfate, and chloride] and specific conductance were developed so that a cascaded-regression relation could be developed as a second method of estimating monthly mean concentrations and, thus, utilize a large specific-conductance data base. Information about the quantity and the quality of ground water discharging to the Sheyenne River is needed for model input for reaches of the river where ground water accounts for a substantial part of streamflow during periods of low flow. Ground-water discharge was identified for two reaches of the Sheyenne River. Ground-water discharge to the Sheyenne River in the vicinity of Warwick, N.Dak., was about 14.8 cubic feet per second and the estimated dissolved-solids concentration was about 441 milligrams per liter during October 15 and 16, 1986. Ground-water discharge to the Sheyenne River in a reach between Lisbon and Kindred, N.Dak., ranged from an average of 25.3 cubic feet per second during September 13 to November 19, 1963, to about 45.0 cubic feet per second during October 21 and 22, 1986. Dissolved-solids concentration was estimated at about 442 milligrams per liter during October 21 and 22, 1986.
RiverWare is a river system modeling tool developed by CADSWES (Center of Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems) that allows the user to simulate complex reservoir operations and perform period-of-record analyses for different scenarios. For the InFRM hydrology studies, RiverWare is used to generate a homogeneous regulated POR by simulating the basin as if the reservoirs and their current rule sets had been present in the basin for the entire time period. Statistical analyses can then be performed on the extended records at the gages. This report summarizes the RiverWare portion of the hydrologic analysis being completed for the InFRM Hydrology study of the Colorado River Basin. The RiverWare model described in this chapter presents development of the Colorado River Basin hydrology, which mimics current operational conditions. The use of the RiverWare program allows for data extension to periods prior to dam construction. The utilization of longer gage record improves discharge frequency results and increases the confidence of the analysis being performed. The modeling evaluation criteria are: (1) evaluate output based on validating policies and functions, and (2) prioritize operation based on surcharge and flood control. A detailed explanation of the Colorado River Basin POR hydrology will be in a later section. Calibration results will also be shown that illustrate the overall model performance for the POR. The time window simulation run is for January 01, 1930 – September 30, 2019. This time window captures all big events occurred over the Colorado River basin. Each simulated water year was inspected individually to better validate the results. Historical pool elevations along with observed inflows and outflows were compared against the model simulated results.
The Gulf Coast regional aquifer systems constitute one of the largest, most complicated, and most interdependent aquifer systems in the United States. Ground-water flow in a 230,000-square-mile area of the south-central United States was modeled for the effect of withdrawing freshwater at the rate of nearly 10 billion gallons per day in 1985 from regional aquifers in the Mississippi Embayment, the Texas coastal uplands, and the coastal lowlands aquifer systems. The 1985 rate of pumping was three times the average rate of recharge to the aquifers before development. The report also estimates the effects of even greater withdrawal rates in the aquifer systems. About two-thirds of the water in the aquifers is saline to brine, which complicates the modeling. Land subsidence due to water withdrawal also was modeled.
We released nearly 1.0 million 1-day post-hatch (dph) and 5-dph pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) free embryos in the Missouri River on 1 July 2019 and sequentially captured survivors at multiple sites through a 240-km river reach to quantify daily growth and survival rates during the early life stages. Genetic analysis was used to assign captured fish to released family lots and known ages. Growth rate was similar (0.74–0.75 mm day −1 ) between the 1- and 5-dph age groups during the 3–4-day dispersal period when water temperature averaged 16.8 °C. Daily survival rate was 0.64 during 1–4 dph for the original 1-dph age group and 0.80 during 5–7 dph for the original 5-dph age group. Total survival during free embryo dispersal (hatch to 9 dph) was estimated as 0.0437. The transition from dispersing as free embryos to settling as benthic larvae was verified for fish originally released as 5 dph. Growth of settled larvae was quantified with a Gompertz model through 75 dph (9 September; 112 mm) when water temperature was 18.8–21.0 °C in the rearing areas. Settled larvae had an estimated daily survival rate of 0.96, and estimated total survival during 9–75 dph was 0.0714. This study provides the first empirical survival estimates for pallid sturgeon early life stages in natural settings and is one of few studies reporting similar information for other sturgeon species. Applications of this work extend to pallid sturgeon restoration programs where population models are being developed to predict recruitment potential and population responses to river management alternatives.
Stereo analysis of images obtained during the 2001 flyby of Comet Borrelly by NASA's Deep Space 1 (DS1) probe allows us to quantify the shape and photometric behavior of the nucleus. The shape is complex, with planar facets corresponding to the dark, mottled regions of the surface whereas the bright, smooth regions are convexly curved. The photometric as well as textural differences between these regions can be explained in terms of topography (roughness) at and below the image resolution, without invoking significant variations in single-particle properties; the material on Borrelly's surface could be quite uniform. A statistical comparison of the digital elevation models (DEMs) produced from the three highest-resolution images independently at the USGS and DLR shows that their difference standard deviation is 120 m, consistent with a matching error of 0.20 pixel (similar to reported matching accuracies for many other stereo datasets). The DEMs also show some systematic differences attributable to manual versus automatic matching. Disk-resolved photometric modeling of the nucleus using the DEM shows that bright, smooth terrains on Borrelly are similar in roughness (Hapke roughness θ =20°) to C-type asteroid Mathilde but slightly brighter and more backscattering (single-scattering albedo w =0.056, Henyey–Greenstein phase parameter g =−0.32). The dark, mottled terrain is photometrically consistent with the same particles but with roughnesses as large as 60°. Intrinsically darker material is inconsistent with the phase behavior of these regions. Many local radiance variations are clearly related to topography, and others are consistent with a topographic explanation; one need not invoke albedo variations greater than a few tens of percent to explain the appearance of Borrelly.
Population density is an important component of wildlife management decisions, but can be difficult to estimate directly for an itinerant, wide‐ranging species such as the American black bear ( Ursus americanus ). In South Carolina, USA, where there has been growth in black bear populations and bear–human‐conflict reports during the past several decades, managers need robust estimates of population size to inform management strategies. We used maximum‐likelihood capture–recapture models, using hair snares to collect DNA samples, to estimate density and abundance for a harvested population of black bear in northwestern South Carolina during 2013 to 2014. Models were tested in a spatially explicit framework using the secr package in Program R. Black bear density was estimated at 0.133 bears/km 2 (SE = 0.034) in 2013 and 0.179 bears/km 2 (SE = 0.043) in 2014. Black bear abundance in our study area was estimated to be 586 bears (SE = 95) in 2013 and 680 bears (SE = 128) in 2014, which are 2–3‐fold lower than previous estimates. We suggest that these estimates be considered a baseline for state biologists to employ in the population's management and in developing future harvest‐regulation strategies. Overall our study highlighted the potential for model choice to influence density estimates, and we concluded that spatially explicit models were appropriate for this study because geographic closure could not be assumed.
This report and associated dataset provide tabular county-level estimates of kilograms of nitrogen and phosphorus generated from two sources: (a) fertilizer from commercial sources and (b) livestock-based manure, for the period 1950 through 2017 for the conterminous United States. Datasets collected during this time span are for intervals of approximately 5 years that coincide with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s census years. Nutrients from fertilizer for 1950–2012 are exactly those previously described in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports and datasets; however, estimates of nutrient masses from fertilizer applied in 2017 are described here as a new product modeled from 11 predictor variables for 2017 including county-level fertilizer expenditures, land use, and acres of fertilized land. Fertilizer-based estimates are provided for both farm and nonfarm (urban) usage. The estimates of nutrients from manure for all years were generated anew by using methods and formulas described in previous USGS reports but adjusted to account for historical changes in the annual averages of animal weights. The tabular data are available as an accompanying data release.
Canal seepage losses affect the ability of water conveyance structures to maximize efficiency and can be a precursor to canal failure. Identification and quantification of canal seepage out of unlined canals is a complex interaction affected by geology, canal stage, operations, embankment geometry, siltation, animal burrows, structures, and other physical characteristics. Seepage out of unlined canals can be coarsely estimated using a mass balance-type approach (water in minus water out with the difference assumed to be a combination of seepage and evapotranspiration). More sophisticated methods are used in some instances but are typically limited efforts aimed at quantifying seepage in a specific location. Seepage is generally broken out into two categories: diffuse and concentrated (or focused) seepage. Diffuse seepage is where the seepage discharges relatively constant over a given area, whereas concentrated (point discharge source) seepage discharges along preferentially focused areas. Diffuse seepage typically occurs in homogeneous conditions where the amount of water flowing into the subsurface is controlled by soil permeability and canal stage. Conversely, concentrated seepage occurs in areas of heterogeneous conditions where water flows into bedrock fractures, rodent burrows or other pre-existing discrete flow-paths. Concentrated seepage can also develop in the advent of sudden or excessive increases in hydraulic gradient which can lead to heaving, cracking, and development of backward erosion piping flow-paths. Concentrated and diffuse seepage can lead to seeps, in this case, a surface expression of water fed by irrigation water on canal embankment or at distal regions away from the canal. This report focuses on work funded by the Research and Development Office from Fiscal Year 2016 through 2021 and the references provided pertain primarily to those efforts. This report also provides a generalized framework for how and when to investigate seepage out of an unlined canal based on the type of seepage, level of understanding about the seepage locations, geology, and knowledge of the subsurface conditions. The various methods used to locate seeps and quantify canal seepage are discussed in further detail, with references provided for the reader. The following seepage investigation scenarios are discussed within the report: 1. Idealized workflow insensitive to time with highest quality data required 2. General workflow sensitive to time with highest quality data required 3. General workflow insensitive to time with lowest cost items preceding more costly techniques 4. Newly developed concentrated seep(s), concern about consequences (time sensitive) 5. Newly developed or rapidly increasing diffuse seepage, concern about consequences (time sensitive) 6. Existing concentrated seep(s), limited concern about consequences, poor geologic understanding 7. Existing concentrated seep(s), limited concern about consequences, good geologic understanding 8. Existing diffuse seepage, limited concern about consequences, poor geologic understanding 9. Existing diffuse seepage, limited concern about consequences, good geologic understanding A workflow is given for each scenario which details recommended steps and the order in which those steps should be taken to maximize efficiency and data quality. The various seepage investigation techniques and estimated costs are discussed in more detail later in this report. The next step is to take the data collected from the various methods and incorporate them into canal operations models to optimize deliveries. This step could also include the development of 3D seepage models to better understand the larger-scale groundwater-surface water interactions and how they are affected by the water delivery system.
Researchers and practitioners alike often need to understand and characterize how water and solutes move through a stream in terms of the relative importance of in-stream and near-stream storage and transport processes. In-channel and subsurface storage processes are highly variable in space and time and difficult to measure. Storage estimates are commonly obtained using transient-storage models (TSMs) of the experimentally obtained solute-tracer test data. The TSM equations represent key transport and storage processes with a suite of numerical parameters. Parameter values are estimated via inverse modeling, in which parameter values are iteratively changed until model simulations closely match observed solute-tracer data. Several investigators have shown that TSM parameter estimates can be highly uncertain. When this is the case, parameter values cannot be used reliably to interpret stream-reach functioning. However, authors of most TSM studies do not evaluate or report parameter certainty. Here, we present a software tool linked to the One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage (OTIS) model that enables researchers to conduct uncertainty analyses via Monte-Carlo parameter sampling and to visualize uncertainty and sensitivity results. We demonstrate application of our tool to 2 case studies and compare our results to output obtained from more traditional implementation of the OTIS model. We conclude by suggesting best practices for transient-storage modeling and recommend that future applications of TSMs include assessments of parameter certainty to support comparisons and more reliable interpretations of transport processes.
Most of the population of the Treasure Valley and the surrounding area of southwestern Idaho and easternmost Oregon depends on groundwater for domestic supply, either from domestic or municipal-supply wells. As of 2017, 41 percent of Idaho’s population was concentrated in Idaho’s portion of the Treasure Valley, and current and projected rapid population growth in the area has caused concern about the long-term sustainability of the groundwater resource. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Water Resource Board and the Idaho Department of Water Resources, began a project to construct a numerical groundwater-flow model of the westernmost western Snake River Plain (WSRP) aquifer system. As part of this project, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model (3D HFM) of the aquifer system was generated, primarily from lithologic data compiled from 291 well-driller reports. Four major hydrogeologic units are shown in the 3D HFM: Coarse-grained fluvial and alluvial deposits, Pliocene-Pleistocene and Miocene basalts, fine-grained lacustrine deposits, and granitic and rhyolitic bedrock. Generally, the 3D HFM is in agreement with the geologic history of the WSRP and hydrogeologic frameworks developed by previous authors. The resolution (voxel size) of the 3D HFM is sufficient for the construction of a regional groundwater-flow model. The major components of inflow (or recharge) to the WSRP aquifer system are seepage from irrigation canals, direct infiltration from precipitation and excess irrigation water, seepage from the Boise and Payette Rivers and Lake Lowell, and subsurface inflow from adjoining uplands. The major components of outflow (or discharge) from the aquifer system are discharge to surface water (rivers, agricultural drains, and streams), groundwater pumping, and direct evapotranspiration from groundwater.