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Linking monitoring and data analysis to predictions and decisions for the range-wide eastern black rail status assessment

The US Fish and Wildlife Service has initiated a re-envisioned approach for providing decision makers with the best available science and synthesis of that information, called the Species Status Assessment (SSA), for endangered species decision making. The SSA report is a descriptive document that provides decision makers with an assessment of a species’ current status and predicted future status. These analyses support all manner of decisions under the US Endangered Species Act, such as listing, reclassification, recovery planning, etc. Novel scientific analysis and predictive modeling in SSAs could be an important part of rooting species conservation decisions in current data and cutting edge analytical and modeling techniques. Here we describe a novel analysis of available data to assess current condition of eastern black rail across its range in a dynamic occupancy analysis. We used the results of the analysis to develop a site occupancy projection model where the model parameters (initial occupancy, site persistence, colonization) were linked to environmental covariates, such as land management and land cover change (sea-level rise, development, etc.). We used the projection model to predict future conditions under multiple sea-level rise and habitat management scenarios. Occupancy probability and site colonization were low in all analysis units and site persistence was also low, suggesting low resiliency and redundancy currently. Extinction probability was high for all analysis units in all simulated scenarios except one with significant effort to preserve existing habitat, suggesting low future resiliency and redundancy. With results of these data analyses and predictive modeling, the US Fish and Wildlife Service concluded that protections of the Endangered Species Act were warranted for this subspecies.

Endangered Species Research↗

Spatial patterns of meadow sensitivities to interannual climate variability in the Sierra Nevada

Conservation of montane meadows is a high priority for land and water managers given their critical role in buffering the effects of climate variability and their vulnerability to increasing temperatures and evaporative demands. Recent advances in cloud computing have provided new opportunities to examine ecological responses to climate variability over the past few decades, and at large spatial scales. In this study we characterized the sensitivities (magnitude and direction of the slope) of meadow vegetation responses to interannual variations in climate. We calculated sensitivity as the regression slope between a 35-year (1985-2016) time series of Landsat-derived vegetation indices characterizing late-season vegetation vigor and water balance variables from the Basin Characterization Model. We identified April 1 snowpack as the climate variable the majority of meadows were most sensitive to. We assessed how vegetation sensitivities to snowpack varied with hydrogeomorphic context (e.g., climate, geology, soils, watershed geometry and land cover) across the Sierra Nevada mountain range using factor analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the hydrogeomorphic data, and multiple linear regression to model sensitivity responses. We found that meadow sensitivities to snowpack varied with long-term average meadow climate, indicators of watershed subsurface water storage capacity, and indicators of meadow vegetation composition. Alpine and sub-alpine meadows with high average annual precipitation, but limited catchment subsurface storage exhibited the largest sensitivities. Our results provide a novel regional perspective on spatial patterns of meadow sensitivities to climate variability and the landscape-scale hydrogeomorphic factors that influence late-season water availability in meadow ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada.

Sierra Nevada↗

Key breeding habitats of threatened golden eagles across Eastern Canada identified using a multi-level, multi-scale habitat selection approach

Context In a conservation context, identifying key habitats suitable for reproduction, foraging, or survival is a useful tool, yet challenging for species with large geographic distributions and/or living in remote regions. Objectives The objective of this study is to identify selected habitats at multiple levels and scales of the threatened eastern North American population of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). We studied habitat selection at three levels: landscape (second order of selection), foraging (third order of selection), and nesting (fourth order of selection). Methods Using tracking data from 30 adults and 366 nest coordinates spanning over a 1.5 million km 2 area in remote boreal and Arctic regions, we modelled the three levels of habitat selection with resource selection functions using seven environmental features (aerial, topographical, and land cover). We then calculated the relative probability of selection in the study area to identify regions with higher probabilities of selection. Results Eagles selected more for terrain ruggedness index and relative elevation than land cover (i.e., forest cover, distance to water; mean difference in relative selection strength: 1.2 [0.71; 1.69], 95% CI) at all three levels. We also found that the relative probability of selection at all three levels was ~ 25% higher in the Arctic than in the boreal regions. Eagles breeding in the Arctic travelled shorter foraging distances with greater access to habitat with a high probability of selection than boreal eagles. Conclusion Here we found which aerial and topographical features were important for several of the eagles’ life cycle needs. We also identified important areas to monitor and preserve this threatened population. The next step is to quantify the quality of habitat by linking our multi-level, multi-scale approach to population demography and performance such as reproductive success.

Landscape Ecology↗

Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems. Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages. A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from the workshop participants via preworkshop surveys, focused on addressing the following questions: What are the climatic, ecological, and human drivers of fire regimes, both past and future? What is the role of humans in shaping historical fire regimes? How does fire ecology affect land cover changes, biodiversity, carbon storage, and human land uses? What are the historical fire trends and their impacts across biomes? Are their impacts local and/or regional? Are the fire trends in the last two decades unprecedented from a historical perspective? The workshop 1 aimed to develop testable hypotheses about fire, climate, vegetation, and human interactions by leveraging the confluence of proxy, observational, and model data related to decadal- to millennial-scale fire activity on our planet. New research directions focused on broad interdisciplinary approaches to highlight how knowledge about past fire activity could provide a more complete understanding of the predictive capacity of fire models and inform fire policy in the face of our changing climate.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

Assessment of impacts of proposed coal-resource and related economic development on water resources, Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming: A summary

Expanded mining and use of coal resources in the Rocky Mountain region of the western United States will have substantial impacts on water resources, environmental amenities, and social and economic conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a 3-year assessment of the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming, where increased coal-resource development has begun to affect the environment and quality of life. Economic projections of the overall effects of coal-resource development were used to estimate water use and the types and amounts of waste residuals that need to be assimilated into the environment. Based in part upon these projections, several physical-based models and other semiquantitative assessment methods were used to determine possible effects upon the basin's water resources. Depending on the magnitude of mining and use of coal resources in the basin, an estimated 0.7 to 2.7 million tons (0.6 to 2.4 million metric tons) of waste residuals may be discharged annually into the environment by coal-resource development and associated economic activities. If the assumed development of coal resources in the basin occurs, annual consumptive use of water, which was approximately 142,000 acre-feet (175 million cubic meters) during 1975, may almost double by 1990. In a related analysis of alternative cooling systems for coal-conversion facilities, four to five times as much water may be used consumptively in a wet-tower, cooling-pond recycling system as in once-through cooling. An equivalent amount of coal transported by slurry pipeline would require about one-third the water used consumptively by once-through cooling for in-basin conversion. Current conditions and a variety of possible changes in the water resources of the basin resulting from coal-resource development were assessed. Basin population may increase by as much as threefold between 1975 and 1990. Volumes of wastes requiring treatment will increase accordingly. Potential problems associated with ammonia-nitrogen concentrations in the Yampa River downstream from Steamboat Springs were evaluated using a waste-load assimilative-capacity model. Changes in sediment loads carried by streams due to increased coal mining and construction of roads and buildings may be apparent only locally; projected increases in sediment loads relative to historic loads from the basin are estimated to be 2 to 7 percent. Solid-waste residuals generated by coal-conversion processes and disposed of into old mine pits may cause widely dispersed ground-water contamination, based on simulation-modeling results. Projected increases in year-round water use will probably result in the construction of several proposed reservoirs. Current seasonal patterns of streamflow and of dissolvedsolids concentrations in streamflow will be altered appreciably by these reservoirs. Decreases in time-weighted mean-annual dissolved-solids concentrations of as much as 34 percent are anticipated, based upon model simulations of several configurations of proposed reservoirs. Detailed statistical analyses of water-quality conditions in the Yampa River basin were made. Regionalized maximum waterquality concentrations were estimated for possible comparison with future conditions. Using Landsat imagery and aerial photographs, potential remote-sensing applications were evaluated to monitor land-use changes and to assess both snow cover and turbidity levels in streams. The technical information provided by the several studies of the Yampa River basin assessment should be useful to regional planners and resource managers in evaluating the possible impacts of development on the basin's water resources.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

Geospatial datasets for watershed delineation and characterization used in the Hawaii StreamStats web application

The U.S. Geological Survey Hawaii StreamStats application uses an integrated suite of raster and vector geospatial datasets to delineate and characterize watersheds. The geospatial datasets used to delineate and characterize watersheds on the StreamStats website, and the methods used to develop the datasets are described in this report. The datasets for Hawaii were derived primarily from 10 meter resolution National Elevation Dataset (NED) elevation models, and the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD), using a set of procedures designed to enforce the drainage pattern from the NHD into the NED, resulting in an integrated suite of elevation-derived datasets. Additional sources of data used for computing basin characteristics include precipitation, land cover, soil permeability, and elevation-derivative datasets. The report also includes links for metadata and downloads of the geospatial datasets.

Hawai'i↗

Global food-security-support-analysis data at 30-m resolution (GFSAD30) cropland-extent products—Download Analysis

Introduction The global food-security-support-analysis data at 30-meter resolution (GFSAD30) cropland-extent product is a project to provide high-resolution global cropland-extent data relating to water use. It is the first global-land-cover map focusing exclusively on agriculture with a 30-meter spatial resolution. The overarching goal of the GFSAD30 project is to produce consistent and unbiased estimates of global agricultural cropland products such as cropland extent; cropland types; irrigated versus rainfed cropland; cropping intensities; and spatial and temporal (from 2000 to 2017) changes in cropland extent. The goal of this report is to assess and discuss the usage of the GFSAD30 project’s cropland-extent product. Since the public release of GFSAD30 in November 2017, the number of files downloaded has been tracked, as well as the total size of files downloaded, the country from which the GFSAD30 data were downloaded, and the user’s field of study. This report presents a monthly assessment of the usage of GFSAD30 from November 2017 through December 2019. During this period, about 1,900 gigabytes of data and about 225,000 files were downloaded by users in more than 100 countries. This report also includes how GFSAD30 has been cited in media, scientific journals, and other data products. The release of data was widely covered by the national and international press, and GFSAD30 products have been cited more than 200 times in scientific journals.

Open-File Report↗

Assessment and characterization of ephemeral stream channel stability and mechanisms affecting erosion in Grand Valley, western Colorado, 2018–21

The Grand Valley in western Colorado is in the semiarid Southwest United States. The north side of the Grand Valley has many ungaged ephemeral streams, which are of particular interest because (1) the underlying bedrock geology, Late Cretaceous Mancos Shale, is a sedimentary rock deposit identified as a major salinity contributor to the Colorado River and (2) despite infrequent streamflows of short duration, monsoon-derived floods in these ephemeral streams can carry substantial amounts of sediment downstream, affecting upstream and downstream banks and channel cross sections. The study area is of interest, because salinity, or the total dissolved solids concentration, in the Colorado River causes an estimated $300 million to $400 million per year in economic damages in the United States, and it is estimated 62 percent of the Upper Colorado River Basin’s total dissolved solid loads originate from geologic sources. In an effort to minimize salt contributions to the Colorado River from public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, a comprehensive salinity control approach is typically used to reduce nonpoint sources of salinity through land management techniques and practices. In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, began an assessment of ephemeral streams located on the north side of the Grand Valley, western Colorado, to characterize stream channel stability and identify mechanisms affecting erosion. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a method for automatically extracting channel cross-section geometry from existing remotely sensed terrain models. Based on estimated flood stage and surrogate streamflows, hydraulic characteristics were calculated. Furthermore, the channel geometries and hydraulic characteristics were used to estimate channel stability using a statistical model. Cross-section stabilities were determined from a stream channel stability assessment for a subset of 1,406 visited (field observed) locations out of 13,415 cross sections, which were delineated from remotely sensed terrain models. The application of Manning’s resistance equation in combination with multiple logistic regression models demonstrated channel stability can be estimated with a 0.845 goodness of fit for a validation dataset when using a combination of drainage area, width-to-depth ratio, sinuosity, and shear stress as the explanatory variables. Stream channel stability was extrapolated for 13,415 unvisited (not field observed) cross sections using the multiple logistic regression model and defined explanatory variables. Mapping of the ephemeral streams and their associated stabilities may be used by the Bureau of Land Management to prioritize areas for remediation or changes in management strategies to reduce sediment and salinity loading to the Colorado River. The study found channel stability within the ephemeral streams to be spatially variable, longitudinally discontinuous, and dictated by changes in channel bed slope. The stable ephemeral streams were relatively wide and shallow and often had smaller drainage areas with less potential for producing shear stresses capable of overcoming channel adhesion. A change in channel bed slope can provide the means necessary to generate shear stresses appropriate to initiate erosion and a subsequent stability transition to incising channels. Channel widening happens when either or both banks of an incising channel reach a critical height for mass wasting, or when channel curvature causes higher sidewall stress. Regardless, widening channels can promote increases in sinuosity and subsequently reduce steep channel bed slopes. Consequently, stable and widening channels can have comparable bed slopes, making channel bed slope a poor explanatory variable to predict channel stability overall, despite its function to initiate channel instability. The results were based on a surrogate 0.10 annual exceedance probability (AEP; return period equal to the 10-year flood) interval streamflow, although it was recognized fluctuations in streamflow would also affect channel stability. Past and current changes within the study area affect streamflow; therefore, mechanisms affecting erosion include land use disturbances, soil compaction, loss of vegetation cover, drought, less frequent and more extreme precipitation, and fires—which all intensify the potential runoff and erosion within the study area.

Colorado↗

Fish communities and their relation to physical and chemical characteristics of streams from selected environmental settings in the Lower Susquehanna River basin, 1993-95

Studies of fish-community composition were conducted annually in selected reaches (from 100 to 303 meters in length) on seven streams from June 1993 to June 1995 within the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. In 1994, additional reaches were selected on three of the streams, resulting in a total of 28 samples. The study reaches were selected on the basis of type of bedrock and land use/land cover; the major emphasis was on agricultural land use or areas in transition from agricultural to commercial, industrial, and residential land uses. At each reach, environmental characteristics consisting of instream and riparian habitat conditions, hydrology, and water quality were determined. The relation of fish communities at these reaches to physical and chemical characteristics of streams was analyzed to determine if the fish communities differed temporally or spatially. Data were analyzed by parametric and multivariate techniques. During the course of the study, a total of 33,143 fish were collected, consisting of 39 species representing 8 families. Cyprinidae (minnows) were dominant with 17 species, followed by Centrarchidae (sunfishes) with 7 species and Percidae (perches and darters) with 4 species. Three species?blacknose dace ( Rhinichthys atratulus ), white sucker ( Catostomus commersoni ), and the sculpins ( Cottus spp)?accounted for 49 percent of the total fish collected. The environmental variables most closely related to the fish communities present at the reaches were mean channel width, mean water temperature, mean canopy angle, and suspended-sediment concentrations. These variables accounted for about 79 percent of the variation in the environmental-species relation. Channel width and mean water temperature are correlated with stream size variables. The stream size gradient is the most influential variable to the fish communities studied in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Expert-informed habitat suitability analysis for at-risk species assessment and conservation planning

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is responsible for reviewing the biological status of hundreds of species to determine federal status designations under the Endangered Species Act. The longleaf pine Pinus palustris ecological system supports many priority at-risk species designated for review, including five species of herpetofauna: gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus , southern hognose snake Heterodon simus , Florida pine snake Pituophis melanoleucus mugitus , gopher frog Lithobates ( Rana ) capito , and striped newt Notophthalmus perstriatus . To inform status decisions and conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models to 1) identify habitat features that best predict species presence and 2) estimate the amount and distribution of suitable habitat across each species' range under current conditions. We incorporated expert judgment from federal, state, and other partners to capture variation in ecological settings across species' ranges, prioritize predictor variables to test in models, mitigate data limitations by informing the selection of pseudoabsence points, qualitatively evaluate model estimates, and improve the likelihood that experts will trust and use model predictions for conservation. Soil characteristics, land cover, and fire interval strongly influenced habitat suitability for all species. Suitable habitat was distributed on known species strongholds, as well as private lands without known species records. Between 4.7% (gopher frog) and 14.6% (gopher tortoise) of the area in a species' range was classified as suitable habitat, and between 28.1% (southern hognose snake) and 47.5% (gopher frog) of suitable habitat was located in patches larger than 1 km 2 (100 ha) on publicly owned lands. By overlaying predictions for each species, we identified areas of suitable habitat for multiple species on protected and unprotected lands. These results have direct applications to management and conservation planning: partners can tailor site-level management based on attributes associated with high habitat suitability for species of concern; allocate survey effort in areas with suitable habitat but no known species records; and identify priority areas for management, land acquisitions, or other strategies based on the distribution of species records, suitable habitat, and land protection status. These results can aid regional partners in implementing effective conservation strategies and inform status designation decisions of the USFWS.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

Cloud water interception in Hawai‘i: Developing capacity to characterize the spatial patterns and effects on water and ecological processes responses in Hawai‘i

Cloud-water interception (CWI) is the process by which fog or cloud water droplets are captured and accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants, some of which drips to the ground. Prior studies in Hawai'i indicate that CWI is highly variable and can contribute substantially to total precipitation. In this study, we monitored CWI and other processes at five mountain field sites on the Islands of Oʻahu, Maui, and Hawaiʻi to explore how CWI (1) varies with different climate and vegetation characteristics, (2) affects plant water use and growth, and (3) contributes to water resources. Results show that annual CWI varied from 158 to 910 mm, accounting for 3-34% of total water input at individual sites. This large variation was caused by differences in the quantity of cloud water, wind speed, and vegetation structure between sites. We developed a model to predict CWI using both climatic and forest canopy characteristics. On average, the model underestimated annual CWI by 18%, but reproduced the site differences relatively well. Plant water use decreased during periods of fog events mainly because of associated higher humidity. This new CWI model can be used to assess impacts of climate and land cover change on CWI and provide valuable information for resource management in Hawai‘i, which was not previously possible. At one field site, we explored the impacts of fog water on hydrological and ecological processes. Fog effects on native plant growth were indirect, primarily buffering effects of solar radiation. Removal of grass allowed natural regeneration of seedlings but did not alter soil moisture values. A soil data-collection program was initiated to help evaluate the role CWI has in providing moisture for plants, reducing wildfire risk within the fog zone, and contributing to groundwater recharge to aquifers that supply drinking water and groundwater discharge to streams.

Hawaii↗

Methods for Adjusting U.S. Geological Survey Rural Regression Peak Discharges in an Urban Setting

A study was conducted of 78 U.S. Geological Survey gaged streams that have been subjected to varying degrees of urbanization over the last three decades. Flood-frequency analysis coupled with nonlinear regression techniques were used to generate a set of equations for converting peak discharge estimates determined from rural regression equations to a set of peak discharge estimates that represent known urbanization. Specifically, urban regression equations for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year return periods were calibrated as a function of the corresponding rural peak discharge and the percentage of impervious area in a watershed. The results of this study indicate that two sets of equations, one set based on imperviousness and one set based on population density, performed well. Both sets of equations are dependent on rural peak discharges, a measure of development (average percentage of imperviousness or average population density), and a measure of homogeneity of development within a watershed. Average imperviousness was readily determined by using geographic information system methods and commonly available land-cover data. Similarly, average population density was easily determined from census data. Thus, a key advantage to the equations developed in this study is that they do not require field measurements of watershed characteristics as did the U.S. Geological Survey urban equations developed in an earlier investigation. During this study, the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program was used as an integral tool in the calibration of all equations. The scarcity of historical land-use data, however, made exclusive use of flow records necessary for the 30-year period from 1970 to 2000. Such relatively short-duration streamflow time series required a nonstandard treatment of the historical data function of the PeakFQ program in comparison to published guidelines. Thus, the approach used during this investigation does not fully comply with the guidelines set forth in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 17B, and modifications may be needed before it can be applied in practice.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey of soil and moisture conservation on public domain lands, 1941-1964

The passage of the Taylor Grazing Act in 1934 marked the end of an era in the land policies in the United States in that disposal of the public lands by homesteading was terminated except under rigidly prescribed procedures, and the remaining public lands covering about 175 million acres in the western conterminous states were brought under regulatory authority for grazing use. In 1934 the lands were mostly in a severe state of deterioration as a result of overgrazing and drought. In addition to reducing numbers of livestock using the lands, successive programs of conservation practices were established of which the Soil and Moisture Conservation Program of the Department of the Interior is of particular interest here. The services of the Geological Survey, in an investigational and advisory capacity were enlisted in this program. The work of the Geological Survey has consisted of the collection of hydrologic data, investigations of range-water supplies to facilitate management and provide information for design of structures and land-treatment measures. Appraisal of the effects of treatment practices has also been an important activity. Conservation on the public domain involves mainly growing vegetation for forage and reducing erosion. The two elements are intimately related--accomplishment in one is usually reflected by an improvement in the other. Erosion is a serious problem on most of the public domain, but particularly in the Colorado River and Rio Grande basins where, despite low annual water yields, the public domain and similar lands on the Indian reservations contribute the major part of the sediment measured at the downstream gaging stations. In parts of the Missouri River basin also, erosion is obviously very active but the sediment yield contributed by the public domain cannot be as readily isolated. The reasons for the erosion are generally evident--the erodibility of the rock and soils and the sparsity of vegetation as a result of low precipitation, unfavorable soils, or past land use. How much is due to the land use is still controversial, resulting in many questions relative to planning corrective measures. The problem facing the early administrators of the Taylor Grazing Act to bring about proper use and conservation of the public domain was a difficult one because of the lack of records on actual grazing use in animal-unit months of the qualified allottees and the lack of data on treatment practices in an arid area. Reduction of grazing was imperative in some localities, but generally, it could not be brought about as rapidly as it should have been. Numbers of animal units in the grazing districts were reduced from about 3.6 million in 1941 to about 3.2 million in 1964, whereas the areas included in districts was increased about 3 percent. Reductions are still being made in certain areas where deterioration is evident. One of the earliest activities connected with management of the range was the development of water supplies to facilitate the distribution of grazing. The investigations needed for such development formed a large part of the early work in the Soil and Moisture program of the Geological Survey and has continued to be a major activity to the present time. Most of the work has involved investigations of sites for wells but has included also the investigation of proposed spring developments and collection of hydrologic data for use in reservoir design. Well-site investigations have been of two general types: (1) the investigation of a site selected by the land administration agency, and (2) an areal investigation covering entire grazing districts or units thereof. In each type of investigation, a study is made of the geology and the recharge conditions. Reports are prepared giving estimates of the depth of drilling required, the depth to water, the yield, and the quality of the water, together with other information on drilling conditions and developing. Springs are a significant so

Open-File Report↗

Derivation of Nationally Consistent Indices Representing Urban Intensity Within and Across Nine Metropolitan Areas of the Conterminous United States

Two nationally consistent multimetric indices of urban intensity were developed to support studies of the effects of urbanization on streams in nine metropolitan areas of the conterminous United States: Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; Boston, Massachusetts; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Denver, Colorado; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Portland, Oregon; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Salt Lake City, Utah. These studies were conducted as a part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These urban intensity indices were used to define gradients of urbanization and to interpret biological, physical, and chemical changes along these gradients. Ninety census, land-cover, and infrastructure variables obtained from nationally available databases were evaluated. Only variables that exhibited a strong and consistent linear relation with 2000 population density were considered for use in the indices. Housing-unit density (HUDEN), percentage of basin area in developed land (P_NLCD1_2), and road density (ROADDEN) were selected as the best representatives of census, land-cover, and infrastructure variables. The metropolitan area national urban intensity index (MA-NUII) was scaled to represent urban intensity within each metropolitan area and ranged from 0 (little or no urban) to 100 (maximum urban) for sites within each metropolitan area. The national urban intensity index (NUII) was scaled to represent urban intensity across all nine metropolitan areas and ranged from 0 to 100 for all sites. The rates at which HUDEN, P_NLCD1_2, and ROADDEN changed with changes in population density varied among metropolitan areas. Therefore, these variables were adjusted to obtain a more uniform rate of response across metropolitan areas in the derivation of the NUII. The NUII indicated that maximum levels of urban intensity occurred in the West and Midwest rather than in the East primarily because small inner-city streams in eastern metropolitan areas are buried and converted to storm drains or sewers and because of higher density development in the Western and Central United States. The national indices (MA-NUII, NUII) were compared to indices that were derived independently for each metropolitan area (MA-UII) based on variables that were of local interest. The MA-UIIs, which were based on 5 to 40 variables, tended to overestimate urban intensity relative to the national indices particularly when the MA-UII was composed of large numbers of variables that were not linearly related to population density as in Denver, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Milwaukee-Green Bay.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Quantifying and forecasting changes in the areal extent of river valley sediment in response to altered hydrology and land cover

In river valleys, sediment moves between active river channels, near-channel deposits including bars and floodplains, and upland environments such as terraces and aeolian dunefields. Sediment availability is a prerequisite for the sustained transfer of material between these areas, and for the eco-geomorphic functioning of river networks in general. However, the difficulty of monitoring sediment availability and movement at the reach or corridor scale has hindered our ability to quantify and forecast the response of sediment transfer to hydrologic or land cover alterations. Here we leverage spatiotemporally extensive datasets quantifying sediment areal coverage along a 28 km reach of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, southwestern USA. In concert with information on hydrologic alteration and vegetation encroachment resulting from the operation of Glen Canyon Dam (constructed in 1963) upstream of our study reach, we model the relative and combined influence of changes in (a) flow and (b) riparian vegetation extent on the areal extent of sediment available for transport in the river valley over the period from 1921 to 2016. In addition, we use projections of future streamflow and vegetation encroachment to forecast sediment availability over the 20 year period from 2016 to 2036. We find that hydrologic alteration has reduced the areal extent of bare sediment by 9% from the pre- to post-dam periods, whereas vegetation encroachment further reduced bare sediment extent by 45%. Over the next 20 years, the extent of bare sediment is forecast to be reduced by an additional 12%. Our results demonstrate the impact of river regulation, specifically the loss of annual low flows and associated vegetation encroachment, on reducing the sediment available for transfer within river valleys. This work provides an extendable framework for using high-resolution data on streamflow and land cover to assess and forecast the impact of watershed perturbation (e.g. river regulation, land cover shifts, climate change) on sediment connectivity at the corridor scale.

Arizona↗

Monitoring conterminous United States (CONUS) land cover change with Web-Enabled Landsat Data (WELD)

Forest cover loss and bare ground gain from 2006 to 2010 for the conterminous United States (CONUS) were quantified at a 30 m spatial resolution using Web-Enabled Landsat Data available from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (http://landsat.usgs.gov/WELD.php). The approach related multi-temporal WELD metrics and expert-derived training data for forest cover loss and bare ground gain through a decision tree classification algorithm. Forest cover loss was reported at state and ecoregional scales, and the identification of core forests' absent of change was made and verified using LiDAR data from the GLAS (Geoscience Laser Altimetry System) instrument. Bare ground gain correlated with population change for large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) outside of desert or semi-desert environments. GoogleEarth™ time-series images were used to validate the products. Mapped forest cover loss totaled 53,084 km2 and was found to be depicted conservatively, with a user's accuracy of 78% and a producer's accuracy of 68%. Excluding errors of adjacency, user's and producer's accuracies rose to 93% and 89%, respectively. Mapped bare ground gain equaled 5974 km2 and nearly matched the estimated area from the reference (GoogleEarth™) classification; however, user's (42%) and producer's (49%) accuracies were much less than those of the forest cover loss product. Excluding errors of adjacency, user's and producer's accuracies rose to 62% and 75%, respectively. Compared to recent 2001–2006 USGS National Land Cover Database validation data for forest loss (82% and 30% for respective user's and producer's accuracies) and urban gain (72% and 18% for respective user's and producer's accuracies), results using a single CONUS-scale model with WELD data are promising and point to the potential for national-scale operational mapping of key land cover transitions. However, validation results highlighted limitations, some of which can be addressed by improving training data, creating a more robust image feature space, adding contemporaneous Landsat 5 data to the inputs, and modifying definition sets to account for differences in temporal and spatial observational scales. The presented land cover extent and change data are available via the official WELD website (ftp://weldftp.cr.usgs.gov/CONUS_5Y_LandCover/ftp://weldftp.cr.usgs.gov/CONUS_5Y_LandCover/).

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Visual interpretation of high-resolution aerial imagery: A tool for land managers

Remotely sensed imagery from various collection platforms (e.g., satellites, crewed and uncrewed aircraft) are used by biologists and other conservation personnel to support management activities ranging from monitoring invasive species to assessing land cover and vegetation characteristics. Although remote sensing–based vegetation indices and models have been developed and used for some management applications, straightforward visual interpretation of imagery by on-the-ground personnel may be a pragmatic approach for obtaining time-sensitive and spatially relevant information to support and guide local management activities. Our primary objective was to qualitatively assess our ability to identify patches of target invasive plant species based on simple visual interpretation of high-resolution aerial imagery. We also sought to compare the high-resolution imagery to widely available imagery (e.g., National Agriculture Imagery Program) to determine the efficacy of each for assessing vegetation communities and land-cover features in support of management activities. To accomplish these objectives, we obtained high-resolution imagery and visually scanned and assessed the imagery by using standard geographic information system software. We were able to differentiate patches of crownvetch Securigera varia (L.) Lassen and wild parsnip Pastinaca sativa L., but not spotted knapweed Centaurea stoebe L. or leafy spurge Euphorbia esula L. The relative success in identifying these species had a relationship to plant characteristics (e.g., flower color and morphology, height), time of year (phenology), patch size and density, and potentially site characteristics such density of the underlying vegetation (e.g., grasses), substrate color characteristics (i.e., color contrast with flowers), and physical disturbance. Our straightforward, qualitative assessment suggests that visual interpretation of high-resolution imagery, but not some lower-resolution imagery, may be an efficient and effective tool for supporting local invasive species management through activities such as monitoring known patches, identifying undetected infestations, assessing management actions, guiding field work, or prioritizing on-the-ground monitoring activities.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

Use of land surface remotely sensed satellite and airborne data for environmental exposure assessment in cancer research

In recent years, geographic information systems (GIS) have increasingly been used for reconstructing individual-level exposures to environmental contaminants in epidemiological research. Remotely sensed data can be useful in creating space-time models of environmental measures. The primary advantage of using remotely sensed data is that it allows for study at the local scale (e.g., residential level) without requiring expensive, time-consuming monitoring campaigns. The purpose of our study was to identify how land surface remotely sensed data are currently being used to study the relationship between cancer and environmental contaminants, focusing primarily on agricultural chemical exposure assessment applications. We present the results of a comprehensive literature review of epidemiological research where remotely sensed imagery or land cover maps derived from remotely sensed imagery were applied. We also discuss the strengths and limitations of the most commonly used imagery data (aerial photographs and Landsat satellite imagery) and land cover maps.

Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epid↗