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1,683 records · Page 86Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Deep-ocean macrofaunal assemblages on ferromanganese and phosphorite-rich substrates in the Southern California Borderland

Mineral-rich hardgrounds, such as ferromanganese (FeMn) crusts and phosphorites, occur on seamounts and continental margins, gaining attention for their resource potential due to their enrichment in valuable metals in some regions. This study focuses on the Southern California Borderland (SCB), an area characterized by uneven and heterogeneous topography featuring FeMn crusts, phosphorites, basalt, and sedimentary rocks that occur at varying depths and are exposed to a range of oxygen concentrations. Due to its heterogeneity, this region serves as an optimal setting for investigating the relationship between mineral-rich hardgrounds and benthic fauna. This study characterizes the density, diversity, and community composition of macrofauna (>300 μm) on hardgrounds as a function of substrate type and environment (depth and oxygen ranges). Rocks and their macrofauna were sampled quantitatively using remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) during expeditions in 2020 and 2021 at depths above, within, and below the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). A total of 3,555 macrofauna individuals were counted and 416 different morphospecies (excluding encrusting bryozoans and hydrozoans) were identified from 82 rocks at depths between 231 and 2,688 m. Average density for SCB macrofauna was 11.08 ± 0.87 ind. 200 cm −2 and mean Shannon-Wiener diversity per rock (H′ [loge] ) was 2.22 ± 0.07. A relationship was found between substrate type and macrofaunal communities. Phosphorite rocks had the highest H′ of the four substrates compared on a per-rock basis. However, when samples were pooled by substrate, FeMn crusts had the highest H′ and rarefaction diversity. Of all the environmental variables examined, water depth explained the largest variance in macrofaunal community composition. Macrofaunal density and diversity values were similar at sites within and outside the OMZ. This study is the first to analyze the macrofaunal communities of mineral-rich hardgrounds in the SCB, which support deep-ocean biodiversity by acting as specialized substrates for macrofaunal communities. Understanding the intricate relationships between macrofaunal assemblages and mineral-rich substrates may inform effects from environmental disruptions associated with deep-seabed mining or climate change. The findings contribute baseline information useful for effective conservation and management of the SCB and will support scientists in monitoring changes in these communities due to environmental disturbance or human impact in the future.

California↗
USGS2023

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2025

Groundwater dominates snowmelt runoff and controls streamflow efficiency in the western United States

Climate change in seasonally snow-covered mountain catchments is reducing water supply and decreasing streamflow predictability. Here, we use tritium age dating to show that contrary to the common assumption that snowmelt quickly contributes to runoff, streamflow during snowmelt in western US catchments is dominated by older groundwater. The average age of streamwater during snowmelt runoff (5.7 ± 4.3 years) was intermediate to the average age of groundwater (10.4 ± 4.5 years) and recent precipitation, indicating that 58% (±34%) of snowmelt runoff was derived from groundwater. Water ages, streamflow, and groundwater storage were mediated by bedrock geology: low-permeability hard rock/shale catchments exhibited younger ages, less storage, and more efficient streamflow generation than high-permeability sandstone/clastic catchments. Our results demonstrate that snowmelt runoff is the result of multiple prior years of climate mediated by groundwater storage. Including these interactions will be crucial for predicting water resources as climate and landscape changes accelerate.

western united States↗
USGS2024

Parsimonious high-resolution landslide susceptibility modeling at continental scales

Landslide susceptibility maps are fundamental tools for risk reduction, but the coarse resolution of current continental-scale models is insufficient for local application. Complex relations between topographic and environmental attributes characterizing landslide susceptibility at local scales are not transferrable across areas without landslide data. Existing maps with multiple susceptibility classifications under-represent landslide potential in moderate and gently sloping terrain. We leverage an extensive landslide database ( N = 613,724), a high-resolution digital elevation model (10-m), and high-performance computing resources, to develop a new nationwide susceptibility map for the contiguous United States, Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. We calculate four alternative linear and nonlinear thresholds of topographic slope and relief using an objective split-sample calibration. We down-sample our results to a 90-m grid to account for uncertainty in the digital elevation model and landslide position, and evaluate these thresholds' ability to differentiate areas of greater susceptibility. The less conservative nonlinear model optimally balances our priorities of capturing observed landslides (99%) while minimizing area covered by susceptible terrain (43%). Independent evaluation with four statewide landslide inventories ( N = 172,367) reinforces our model selection but highlights spatially variable performance. Therefore, we propose a novel approach to susceptibility classification using the concentration of landslide-prone terrain within each down-sampled grid. While landslides are possible within any cells containing susceptible terrain, those with the highest concentration capture the majority of observed landslides. Our new map characterizes landside susceptibility more consistently than prior models; our transparent classification approach also provides flexibility for accommodating different tolerances in risk reduction measures.

AGU Advances↗
USGS2026

Regional variations in sea ice and primary productivity in the Bering Sea during Marine Isotope Stage 11

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) has long been an analog for Holocene climate, because it is the most recent interglacial period with similar orbital conditions. However, there is significant global and regional variability in the climate response to MIS 11 warmth. Here, we review sediment core records from across the Bering Sea to investigate changes in paleoceanographic conditions during Marine Isotope Stages 12-10. Sea ice was present over much of the Bering Sea during MIS 11, but today, none of the sites investigated are ever ice-covered. This suggests that sea ice regimes in the Bering Sea during MIS 11 were different to those of the Holocene. There are also regional differences in the response of sea ice to MIS 11 warming. At the Umnak Plateau, Southeastern Bering Sea, sea ice concentrations decline during deglaciation, but they remain high at the slope sites until Peak MIS 11. Sea ice re-advances over the Umnak Plateau during peak interglacial warmth, at the same time that it declines over the slope sites. Late MIS 11 is characterized by high concentrations of seasonal sea ice at the Umnak Plateau, whilst sea ice at the slope sites fluctuates between consolidated and unconsolidated ice cover. This east-west dichotomy may be explained by changes in the behavior of the Aleutian Low. Productivity increases dramatically during deglaciation due to increased upwelling and sea level rise bringing fresh nutrients into the oceans. This is characterized by increased diatom productivity, increased terrestrial carbon deposition, and laminations at all sites.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Monitoring changes in Landsat thermal features in urban and non-urban interfaces from 1986 to 2023 in two international urban centers: Implications for climate and global issues

Rapid urbanization is reshaping thermal environments worldwide, with the strongest impacts occurring at the interface between urban and non-urban areas. Impervious surfaces, as key indicators of urban expansion, are critical for monitoring urban growth and assessing surface urban heat island (SUHI) effects. Land use and land cover change (LULCC) provides an essential link between urban dynamics and their environmental and societal consequences. Here, we integrated the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate Global Issues (CGI) Land Cover Product with Landsat thermal time-series to investigate SUHI evolution in two contrasting metropolitan regions: Wuhan, China, and Brasília, Brazil. Using data spanning 1986–2023, we analyzed the relationships between land cover, Landsat-based land surface temperature (LST), and SUHI intensity, and identified persistent thermal hotspots. Results demonstrate that the land cover data utilized increases the accuracy of impervious surface mapping along urban–rural gradients. Average SUHI intensities were 3.4 °C in Wuhan and 3.3 °C in Brasília, with statistically significant warming trends of 0.04 °C/year and 0.01 °C/year, respectively. Maximum temperature proved to be a robust indicator of SUHI intensification, capturing long-term upward trends. Our findings highlight the important role of urban land cover dynamics in shaping temporal SUHI variability and hotspot emergence. This prototype framework demonstrates the scientific and policy value of combining long-term land cover monitoring information with satellite thermal monitoring to quantify and track SUHI at city scale, supporting sustainable urban planning and climate adaptation strategies.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2024

Advancing sustainable groundwater management with a hydro-economic system model: Investigations in the Harney Basin, Oregon

Groundwater resources frequently trend toward unsustainable levels because, absent effective institutions, individual water users generally act independently without considering the impacts on other users. Hydro-economic models (HEMs) of human-natural systems can play a positive role toward successful groundwater management by yielding valuable knowledge and insight. The current study explores how an HEM that captures essential physical and economic characteristics of a system can shed light on the system's processes and dynamics to benefit stakeholders, managers, and also researchers. These propositions are illustrated using the Harney Basin, Oregon, which has seen large groundwater declines in the past 20 years. The HEM shows that: (a) although current groundwater pumping rates will gradually raise costs and reduce well yields, irrigators gain the highest aggregate economic return by continuing current pumping; (b) lowland areas of the basin are hydrologically connected, which limits the efficacy of remedies focused on regulations only in some portions of the basin; (c) community expectations regarding the efficacy of several proposed solutions are overly optimistic; and (d) the study's scenarios identify interventions that would stabilize the groundwater system and prevent additional adverse impacts on residential and livestock wells and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. These interventions would require limiting groundwater pumping by nearly half and reducing annual profits by $7.5–$9.0M. The HEM also demonstrated its value to researchers: its insights shifted attention toward questions about Oregon's existing groundwater institutions and their inability to adaptively manage the transition from abundant groundwater to scarce groundwater in a timely manner.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

USGS Geochron Database

Introduction Geochronology helps us understand Earth’s history by determining when important events, like volcanic eruptions, the rise of mountains, the formation of mineral resources, and changes in the landscape, happened. Geochronological data directly support geologic mapping and can inform decisions about geologic hazard mitigation, natural resource management, and infrastructure resilience. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Geochron database provides access to more than 300,000 published, publicly available age measurements from more than 40,000 geological samples. This database is the result of a collaborative effort with State geological surveys and geoscientists from across the globe. The USGS Geochron database is the most comprehensive collection of geochronological data available for the United States. Users can view data through an interactive map explorer, download datasets, and integrate data into geospatial software or other analysis tools.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2024

Comparing subduction ground-motion models to observations for Cascadia

We evaluate Cascadia subduction ground-motion models (GMMs), considered for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update, by comparing observations to model predictions. The observations comprise regional recordings from intraslab earthquakes, including contributions from 2021 and 2022 events in southern Cascadia and global records from interface earthquakes. Since the 2018 NSHM update, new GMMs for Cascadia have been published by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-Subduction Project that require independent evaluation. In the regional intraslab comparisons, we highlight a characteristic frequency dependence for Cascadia data, with short periods having lower ground motions and longer periods being comparable to other subduction zones. We evaluate differences in northern and southern Cascadia and find that the NGA-Subduction GMMs developed using southern Cascadia data perform better in this region than the model that did not consider these data. We compare ground-motion variability in Cascadia with the NGA-Subduction model predictions and find differences at short periods ( T = 0.1 s) due to the use of global versus regional data in the development of these models. Moreover, the within-event component of aleatory variability from the GMMs overpredicts the standard deviation of Cascadia recordings at very short periods ( T < 0.05 s). Using global interface earthquakes as a proxy to evaluate the Cascadia GMMs, we find long-period overprediction from a simulation-based GMM and some of the empirical GMMs. When comparing recent observations, we find a similar misfit to GMMs and the 2010 and 2022 Ferndale earthquakes. Finally, we observe different basin amplification factors arising in different subsets of the data, which indicate that differences in basin factors between empirical GMMs could arise from the data selection choices by the developers. As part of evaluating the regional basin terms, we apply basin amplification factors from the magnitude 9 Cascadia earthquake simulations to the empirical GMMs for interface earthquakes. The comparisons presented in this study indicate that the NGA-Subduction GMMs for Cascadia perform well relative to observations and older subduction GMMs.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

Effective site coefficients for the 2024 International Building Code (IBC)

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), have long been the scientific foundation of seismic design guidelines and have been used to compute design ground motions for construction of new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings in the United States and its territories. The 2018 NSHM is adopted by the 2024 International Building Code (IBC). Prior to the 2018 NSHM update, hazard calculations were required only at one reference site condition defined by V S30 =760 m/s (where V S30 is the time-averaged shear wave velocity from the surface to a depth of 30 m) and three periods (peak ground acceleration, PGA, and pseudo spectral accelerations at periods of 0.2 and 1 s, S s and S 1 ). Site coefficients, F PGA , F a , and F v , were then defined by the Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC) Provisions Update Committee (PUC) in the site-specific procedures of National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) Recommended Seismic Provisions to calculate ground motions for other site classes with different V S30 values at the given periods. The design ground motions at other periods were then estimated using a generic spectral shape that was also defined by the BSSC PUC in NEHRP provisions. In recent years, the engineering community has realized there were deficiencies with the F a and F v site coefficients and the generic spectral shape. To avoid potentially dangerous underestimations of design ground motions for long period structures on soft site conditions in high seismicity regions, the BSSC PUC recommended the use of multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in 2017. As a result, the USGS produced multi-period and multi-V S30 response spectral values in the 2018 NSHM for calculations of design ground motions and the site coefficients F a and F v were eliminated from the 2020 NEHRP Provisions. As these site coefficients were widely used inside and outside of the United States, in this study we back-calculate the “effective” site coefficients F a,eff , and F v,eff by comparing MPRS for various site classes with the MPRS for the reference site condition, and discuss the changes that are observed in the 2024 IBC compared to its previous version in 2021. The effective site coefficients are presented for test site locations and their dependence on various factors including period, ground motion intensity, and regional models are discussed. Ratio maps between the new effective site coefficients and the old ones are then presented for soft site classes and for short and long periods. For soft site classes at short periods, the new effective site coefficients are lower than the old site coefficients for high seismicity regions and higher for low seismicity regions. As it was expected, for soft site classes at long periods and high seismicity regions, the new effective site coefficients are much larger than the old site coefficients without imposing the 50% increase as a penalty that was suggested in the 2021 IBC, whereas they could be much smaller if the 50% increase would have been imposed particularly around New Madrid and Charleston high seismicity regions. For low seismicity regions, the long period effective site coefficients can be smaller or larger by 20% compared to the 2021 IBC coefficients.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Completion summary for monitor wells NRF-17 and NRF-18 at the Naval Reactors Facility, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the Naval Reactors Laboratory Field Office that supports operations for the Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—drilled and constructed well NRF-17 (formerly borehole USGS 151) and well NRF-18 (formerly borehole USGS 152) for stratigraphic framework analyses and water-quality monitoring at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) near the NRF, in southeastern Idaho. Borehole USGS 151 was continuously cored from about 48 to 1,070 feet (ft) below land surface (BLS); rotary drilled from approximately 1,070 to 1,720 ft BLS; and re-drilled to complete construction as a monitor well NRF-17, completed to 461 ft BLS. Borehole USGS 152 was continuously cored from approximately 19 to 1,259 ft BLS; rotary drilled from approximately 1,259 to 1,630 ft BLS; and re-drilled to complete construction as a monitor well NRF-18, completed to 450 ft BLS. Geophysical data were examined with photographed core material to record lithologic descriptions and to suggest zones where groundwater flow was anticipated. Basalt flows varied from highly fractured to dense, with high-to-low vesiculation. Well NRF-17 generally was constructed in mostly dense basalt (greater than 75 percent), and well NRF-18 was constructed in primarily fractured and (or) vesicular basalt. In well NRF-17, the well capacity is directly affected by the limited amount of fractured basalt, which serves as the primary pathway for groundwater. This effect was observed during the pumping test conducted after the well's final construction. Single-well aquifer tests were done at wells NRF-17 and NRF-18 to provide estimates of transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity after final well construction and initial well development. Estimated values of transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity for well NRF-17 were 8.81 feet squared per day (ft 2 /d) and 1.04×10 -2 feet per day (ft/d), respectively. Estimated values of transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity for well NRF-18 were 4.77×10 3 ft 2 /d and 5.61 ft/d, respectively. The NRF-17 pump test resulted in 19.41 ft of measured drawdown at a sustained average pumping rate of 3.3 gallons per minute (gal/min). The NRF-18 pump test resulted in 0.55 ft of measured drawdown at a sustained average pumping rate of 31.0 gal/min. Water-quality samples collected from the two wells were analyzed for cations, anions, metals, nutrients, volatile organic compounds, stable isotopes, and radionuclides. Water samples for select inorganic constituents showed concentrations consistent with signatures from tributary valley groundwater with influences from ephemeral surface-water recharge from the Big Lost River. Water-quality samples analyzed for stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen are consistent with signatures from tributary valley groundwater and surface-water recharge inputs to the aquifer. No measured water-quality results were greater than their respective maximum contaminant levels for public drinking-water supplies. Inorganic and nutrient water-quality results for well NRF-17 and well NRF-18 suggest the groundwater in this area is potentially affected by industrial wastewater disposal.

Idaho↗
USGS2025

Analyzing multi-year nitrate concentration evolution in Alabama aquatic systems using a machine learning model

Rising nitrate contamination in water systems poses significant risks to public health and ecosystem stability, necessitating advanced modeling to understand nitrate dynamics more accurately. This study applies the long short-term memory (LSTM) modeling to investigate the hydrologic and environmental factors influencing nitrate concentration dynamics in rivers and aquifers across the state of Alabama in the southeast of the United States. By integrating dynamic data such as streamflow and groundwater levels with static catchment attributes, the machine learning model identifies primary drivers of nitrate fluctuations, offering detailed insights into the complex interactions affecting multi-year nitrate concentrations in natural aquatic systems. In addition, a novel LSTM-based approach utilizes synthetic surface water nitrate data to predict groundwater nitrate levels, helping to address monitoring gaps in aquifers connected to these rivers. This method reveals potential correlations between surface water and groundwater nitrate dynamics, which is particularly meaningful given the lack of water quality observations in many aquifers. Field applications further show that, while the LSTM model effectively captures seasonal trends, limitations in representing extreme nitrate events suggest areas for further refinement. These findings contribute to data-driven water quality management, enhancing understanding of nitrate behavior in interconnected water systems.

Alabama↗
USGS2025

Metal-rich lacustrine sediments from legacy mining perpetuate copper exposure to aquatic-riparian food webs

Historic copper mining left a legacy of metal-rich tailings resulting in ecological impacts along and within Torch Lake, an area of concern in the Keweenaw Peninsula, Michigan, USA. Given the toxicity of copper to invertebrates, this study assessed the influence of this legacy on present day nearshore aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We measured the metal (Co, Cu, Ni, Zn, Cd) and metalloid (As) concentrations in sediment, pore water, surface water, larval and adult insects, and two riparian spider taxa collected from Torch Lake and a nearby reference lake. Overall, elevated metal and metalloid concentrations, particularly Cu, were measured in all sediment samples and some surface and pore water samples collected from Torch Lake. For instance, Cu concentrations in the Torch Lake sediment were ∼200% higher than the reference lake and all measured concentrations exceeded predicted effects concentrations by at least ninefold. Within larval insect tissues, we observed 160% higher Cu concentrations than measured in the reference lake, and Cu was the only measured element above predicted effects concentrations in Torch Lake. Adult insects collected at both lakes had similar metal concentrations irrespective of exposure levels. Yet we found 100% higher copper concentrations in Torch Lake riparian spiders, demonstrating elevated exposure risk to insectivores across the aquatic-terrestrial boundary. Our results highlight that other metals in the mixture may not be as concerning to adjacent riparian ecosystems, but copper remains a contaminant of concern in Torch Lake 60 years after mining ceased.

Michigan↗
USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey geomagnetic variometer data: Capitalizing on seismic infrastructure

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Geomagnetism Program is collaborating with the Earthquake Hazards Program and Global Seismographic Network Program to densify magnetic field observations. This collaboration focuses on the installation of magnetometers, or magnetic variometers, at existing seismic stations. Along with improving the density of space weather observations for hazard monitoring, these data can be used to correct colocated magnetic field induced noise in seismic data. Such corrections are especially useful during time periods of large magnetic storms where the magnetic field‐induced instrument noise can be of similar amplitude to earthquake ground‐motion records.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2026

Deformed submarine terraces in Puget Sound, Pacific Northwest, indicate only one M >~7.5 earthquake on the Seattle fault zone in the past 11,000 yr

Submerged marine terraces in Puget Sound, deformed across the Seattle fault zone (SFZ), indicate that only one earthquake as large as M~7.5 has occurred in at least the past 11 kyr. Previous paleoseismic studies document a M~7.5 earthquake between 923–4 CE, which uplifted coastal marine terraces by as much as 8 m. We demonstrate that this earthquake was the only such event since ~11 ka by mapping and quantifying deformation of older marine terraces, now submerged in Puget Sound. The submerged terraces, attributed to a late-glacial sea-level lowstand, record both glacial isostatic rebound and tectonic deformation. Vertical offset of the ~11 ka terraces within the SFZ is comparable to that of the marine terraces uplifted in 923 CE, implying no additional large (M>~7.5) earthquake on the SFZ since ~11 ka. This result implies a longer recurrence interval than current hazard estimates, which assumes recurrence of M>7.1 events every 5 kyr. Our mapping of SFZ deformation since ~11 ka also supports fault segmentation and contiguous block uplift between the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Aftershocks in stress shadows are inconsistent with modeled static Coulomb stress changes

Aftershock triggering is commonly attributed to increases in static Coulomb stress. In some areas, termed "stress shadows", a decrease in Coulomb stress is predicted to suppress earthquake occurrence. However, aftershocks are often observed in the modeled stress shadows. We examine several hypotheses that attempt to reconcile these shadow aftershocks with the static Coulomb stress change model: (1) they appear to be in shadows because of inaccuracy in the stress change calculations, (2) they occur on faults of unusual orientation which actually experienced increased Coulomb stress, (3) they occur on faults with different frictional properties, not modeled well by Coulomb stress, and (4) they are secondary aftershocks triggered by prior aftershocks or afterslip. When tested on the 2016 Mw7.0 Kumamoto, Japan, and 2019 Mw7.1 Ridgecrest, California, aftershock sequences, none of these hypotheses can explain the majority of the shadow aftershocks, and taken together these hypotheses can explain only about half of these aftershocks. This implies that Coulomb stress modeling that lacks small-scale fault zone heterogeneity might be inadequate to fully capture the true static stress changes and/or that other physical triggering models are needed, for example transient processes such as delayed triggering by dynamic stress changes from the passing seismic waves.

California↗
USGS2025

Quantifying groundwater response and uncertainty in beaver-influenced mountainous floodplains using machine learning-based model calibration

Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model-data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver-induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning-based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down-valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down-valley underflow, from 2% during dry pond periods to 20% during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down-valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver-induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field-scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Disparate groundwater responses to wildfire

Post-wildfire investigations of groundwater response reveal a range of outcomes, varying from substantial increases to notable decreases in recharge and baseflow, with some studies indicating negligible or short-lived effects. This review assesses these varied responses within five critical categories: climate, vegetation, hydrogeology, fire characteristics, and the cryosphere, examining both short-term (within 2 years) and intermediate (2–10 years post-fire) effects. Despite considerable variability, some consistent patterns emerge. For instance, in hydroclimatic settings where water input and evaporative demand cycles are out of sync, post-wildfire groundwater responses tend to be positive (i.e., increased flux or storage), whereas under low fire severity conditions or in vegetation types that quickly recover, groundwater responses tend to be negative (i.e., decreased flux or storage). We synthesize relevant findings into a compendium of testable hypotheses aimed at explaining the spatiotemporal variability in observed post-wildfire groundwater responses. A recurring theme is the critical influence of the pre-wildfire groundwater regime on expected response and recovery. We identify opportunities for specific improvements in post-wildfire monitoring and modeling that would further advance capabilities to predict groundwater response. A key area for further research is understanding how wildfire effects on snow dynamics and other cryospheric processes translate to changes in groundwater.

WIREs Water↗