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USGS2019

Predicting species distributions: unifying model selection and scale optimization for multi-scale occupancy models

Geographic distributions are a basic component of a species’ ecology, and predicting distributions is a fundamental task of conservation and resource management. Reliable prediction depends on identification of appropriate scales of effect for environmental data, and scale-optimization techniques are thus desirable to identify optimal scales for predictor variables. Recent statistical developments have also advanced methods of model selection based explicitly on predictive ability, which differ from commonly-used methods that regulate model structures via anticipated predictive performance. Such methods are beginning to permeate into species distribution models (SDMs), yet there remains no consensus methodology for developing optimally-predictive multi-scale SDMs when covariate data are collected over a range of scales. Thus, we compared the performance of common approaches for scale optimization and model selection in terms of their ability to produce optimally predictive multi-scale Bayesian occupancy models for predicting a species distribution, using models of the breeding distribution for King Rails (Rallus elegans) as a case study. Our results demonstrate sizable gains in predictive performance for hierarchical occupancy models selected explicitly via their ability to predict out-of-sample data using the logarithmic scoring rule, as compared to models selected using information criteria (DIC and WAIC). Information criteria commonly selected individual covariates, as well as scales of effect for those covariates, with suboptimal predictive performance. Performance of models selected using the logarithmic scoring rule was robust across method of scale optimization, which was not true for models selected using DIC and WAIC. Thus, we empirically demonstrate benefits of study designs that enable covariate and scale selection based explicitly on predictive ability. Our results also imply that more careful consideration of what constitutes an optimal scale is warranted in many ecological studies, as the meaning of optimal is not independent of the technique used for scale selection.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2024

The effects of wastewater reuse on smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) relative abundance in the Shenandoah River Watershed, USA

Municipal and industrial wastewater effluent is an important source of water for lotic systems, especially during periods of low flow. The accumulated wastewater effluent flows—expressed as a percentage of total streamflow (ACCWW%)—contain chemical mixtures that pose a risk to aquatic life; fish may be particularly vulnerable when chronically exposed. Although there has been considerable focus on individual-level effects of exposure to chemical mixtures found in wastewater effluent, scaling up to population-level effects remains a challenging component needed to better understand the potential consequences of exposure in wild populations. This may be particularly important under a changing climate in which wastewater reuse could be essential to maintain river flows. We evaluated the effects of chronic exposure to wastewater effluent, as measured by ACCWW%, on the relative abundance of young-of-year (YOY), juvenile, and adult smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) populations in the Shenandoah River Watershed (USA). We found that increases in ACCWW% in the previous year and during the prespawn period were negatively correlated with the relative abundance of YOY, resulting in an average 41% predicted decrease in abundance (range = 0.5%–94% predicted decrease in abundance). This lagged effect suggests that adult fish reproductive performance may be compromised by chemical exposure during periods of high ACCWW%. No relationships between ACCWW% and juvenile or adult relative abundance were found, suggesting that negative effects of ACCWW% on YOY abundance may be offset due to compensatory mechanisms following higher ACCWW% exposure. Understanding the effects of wastewater effluent exposure at multiple levels of biological organization will help in the development of management strategies aimed at protecting aquatic life. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:1138–1148. © 2024 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Virginia↗

USGS2023

Imperfect detection and misidentification affect inferences from data informing water operation decisions

Objective Managers can modify river flow regimes using fish monitoring data to minimize impacts from water management infrastructure. For example, operation of the gate-controlled Delta Cross Channel (DCC) in California can negatively affect the endangered Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha . Although guidelines have been developed for DCC operations by using real-time juvenile fish sampling count data, there is uncertainty about how environmental conditions influence fish occupancy and the extent to which those relationships are affected by sampling and identification error. Methods We evaluated the effect of environmental conditions, imperfect detection, and misidentification error on salmon occupancy by analyzing data using hierarchical multistate occupancy models. A total of 14,147 trawl tows and beach seine hauls were conducted on 1058 sampling days between October and December from 1996 to 2019. During these surveys, 2803 juvenile winter-run Chinook Salmon were identified, and approximately 29% of the sampling days had at least one winter-run juvenile detected. Result The probability of misidentifying an individual juvenile winter-run Chinook Salmon in the field was estimated to be 0.056 based on fish identification examinations and genetic sampling. Occupancy varied considerably and was related to flow characteristics, water clarity, weather, time of year, and whether occupancy was detected during the previous sampling day. However, these relationships and their significance changed considerably when accounting for imperfect detection and the probability of misidentifying individual juvenile salmon. Detection was <0.3 under average sampling conditions during a single sample and was influenced by flow, water clarity, site, and volume sampled. Conclusion Our modeling results indicate that DCC gate closure decisions could occur on fewer days when imperfect detection and misidentification error are not accounted for. These findings demonstrate the need to account for identification and detection error while using monitoring data to assess factors influencing fish occupancy and inform future management decisions.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS1979

Tolerance of developing salmonid eggs and fry to nitrate exposure

This paper reports on tests which show significant effects on early salmonid life stages of nitrates at levels commonly found in groundwaters in geographical areas that are influenced by fertilizer application. It has long been known, from fish cultural experience, that in certain site specific locations, chronic problems can be expected with salmonid egg development and early fry mortality. However, fingerlings which survive usually grow normally. A complete explanation is lacking although several environmental factors have been proposed to account for this phenomenon. One, which has so far received little attention, is that nitrate levels in the ground and surface waters of many areas have been increasing significantly over historical background levels. Ammonia, urea, and other potential sources of nitrate can enter natural waters from a variety of sources, such as domestic or industrial sewage, animal feedlots, or seepage and return flows from agricultural lands. The latter may be the largest contributor, since billions of tons of nitrate fertilizers are applied to agricultural crops on a worldwide basis each year. In addition, intensive forest management techniques include the aerial application of nitrate fertilizer to increase the yield of wood products, while range management practices call for use of nitrates to increase forage production. The nitrate that is not taken up by plants ultimately appears in ground or surface waters.

Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

USGS1999

Characterizing hydrology and the importance of ground-water discharge in natural and constructed wetlands

Although considered the most important component for the establishment and persistence of wetlands, hydrology has been hard to characterize and linkages between hydrology and other environmental conditions are often poorly understood. In this work, methods for characterizing a wetland’s hydrology from hydrographs were developed, and the importance of ground water to the physical and geochemical conditions in the root zone was investigated. Detailed sampling of nearly continuous hydrographs showed that sites with greater ground-water discharge had higher water tables and more stable hydrographs. Subsampling of the continuous hydrograph failed to characterize the sites correctly, even though the wetland complex is located in a strong regional ground-water-discharge area. By comparing soil-moisture-potential measurements to the water-table hydrograph at one site, we noted that the amount of root-zone saturation was not necessarily driven by the water-table hydrograph but can be a result of other soil parameters (i.e., soil texture and associated capillary fringe). Ground-water discharge was not a significant determinant of maximum or average temperatures in the root zone. High ground-water discharge was associated with earliest date of thaw and shortest period of time that the root zone was frozen, however. Finally, the direction and magnitude of shallow ground-water flow was found to affect the migration and importance of a geochemical species. Areas of higher ground-water discharge had less downward penetration of CO 2 generated in the root zone. In contrast, biotically derived CO 2 was able to penetrate the deeper ground-water system in areas of ground-water recharge. Although ground-water flows are difficult to characterize, understanding these components is critical to the success of wetland restoration and creation efforts.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2003

Future coral reef habitat marginality: Temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2023

A regionally varying habitat model to inform management for greater sage-grouse persistence across their range

Identifying habitat needs for species with large distributions is challenging because species-habitat associations may vary across scales and regions (spatial nonstationarity). Furthermore, management efforts often cross jurisdictional boundaries, complicating the development of cohesive conservation strategies among management entities. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) is a rapidly declining species that spans 11 U.S. states and responds to habitat conditions across a wide range of spatial scales and regions. Allowing for regional variance in species-habitat associations and suitability predictions could systematically identify important habitats at levels relevant to management. We collaboratively developed a model with Bureau of Land Management (BLM) biologists that: (1) evaluated the scale of effect for different environmental covariates; (2) accounted for regional differences in population-level responses; and (3) predicted probabilities of persistence across the U.S. occupied range. We modeled range-wide lek persistence data (6615 communal breeding sites classified as active or inactive) as a function of environmental covariates. Environmental covariates included sagebrush cover, pinyon-juniper cover, topography, precipitation, point and line disturbance densities, and landscape configuration metrics. Our model treated habitat assessment areas – regionally delineated by BLM biologists – as random intercepts and slopes that allowed for geographic variation in species-habitat associations and predicted probabilities of lek persistence. Our final model indicated support for 12 environmental covariates predicting lek persistence at scales extending between 1- to 15-km radii from lek centers, and a covariate measuring distance to the occupied range boundary. Five of these covariates showed significant regionally varying responses: sagebrush clumpiness (a measure of habitat aggregation), pinyon-juniper cover, point disturbance of anthropogenic features such as energy infrastructure and communication towers, elevation, and a topographic index associated with mesic habitats. This spatial nonstationarity indicates unitary range-wide recommendations, or rules-of-thumb with respect to their effects on lek persistence, may be problematic for these environmental conditions. For covariates that did not include random slopes, and which were potentially amenable to management actions, we found that leks were predicted to become extirpated when sagebrush cover fell below 9.6 % (summarized at the 3.2-km radius extent), and the proportion of classified sagebrush habitat fell below 0.7 (1-km). We produced a continuous predictive probability surface of lek persistence which we binned based on model sensitivity thresholds to produce habitat quality categories. The highest quality habitat (capturing 50 % of active leks) covered 25.5 % of the occupied range, while the combined lowest through highest quality habitats (capturing 95 % of active leks) covered 65.0 %. Accommodating regional environmental differences in models that are relevant to habitat management planning will help ensure their applicability to targeted goals. Continuous collaboration between modelers and land managers early in the modeling process increases the likelihood of this outcome.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2003

Changes in the chemistry of lakes and precipitation in high-elevation national parks in the western United States, 1985–1999

High-elevation lakes in the western United States are sensitive to atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen due to fast hydrologic flushing rates, short growing seasons, an abundance of exposed bedrock, and a lack of well-developed soils. This sensitivity is reflected in the dilute chemistry of the lakes, which was documented in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Western Lake Survey of 1985. Sixty-nine lakes in seven national parks sampled during the 1985 survey were resampled during fall 1999 to investigate possible decadal-scale changes in lake chemistry. In most lakes, SO 4 concentrations were slightly lower in 1999 than in 1985, consistent with a regional decrease in precipitation SO 4 concentrations and in SO 2 emissions in the western United States. Nitrate concentrations also tended to be slightly lower in 1999 than in 1985, in contrast with generally stable or increasing inorganic N deposition in the west. Differences in alkalinity were variable among parks but were relatively consistent within each park. Possible effects of annual and seasonal-scale variations in precipitation amount on lake chemistry were evaluated based on climate data available for the parks and an analysis of climatic effects at two research watersheds with long-term records. Results suggest that rain prior to sampling in 1985 may have caused elevated NO 3 in some lakes due to direct runoff of precipitation and flushing of NO 3 from alpine soils, which may explain some of the decrease in NO 3 concentrations observed in survey lakes.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2010

Ecological distribution and population physiology defined by proteomics in a natural microbial community

An important challenge in microbial ecology is developing methods that simultaneously examine the physiology of organisms at the molecular level and their ecosystem level interactions in complex natural systems. We integrated extensive proteomic, geochemical, and biological information from 28 microbial communities collected from an acid mine drainage environment and representing a range of biofilm development stages and geochemical conditions to evaluate how the physiologies of the dominant and less abundant organisms change along environmental gradients. The initial colonist dominates across all environments, but its proteome changes between two stable states as communities diversify, implying that interspecies interactions affect this organism's metabolism. Its overall physiology is robust to abiotic environmental factors, but strong correlations exist between these factors and certain subsets of proteins, possibly accounting for its wide environmental distribution. Lower abundance populations are patchier in their distribution, and proteomic data indicate that their environmental niches may be constrained by specific sets of abiotic environmental factors. This research establishes an effective strategy to investigate ecological relationships between microbial physiology and the environment for whole communities in situ .

Molecular Systems Biology↗

USGS2000

Ground-penetrating radar methods used in surface-water discharge measurements

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates a network of about 7,000 streamflow-gaging stations that monitor open-channel water discharge at locations throughout the United States. The expense, technical difficulties, and concern for the safety of operational personnel under some field conditions have led to the search for alternate measurement methods. Ground- penetrating radar (GPR) has been used by the USGS in hydrologic, geologic, environmental, and bridge-scour studies by floating antennas on water or mounting antennas in boats. GPR methods were developed to measure and monitor remotely the cross-sectional area of rivers by suspending a 100-megahertz (MHz) radar antenna from a cableway car or bridge at four unstable streams that drained the slopes of Mount St. Helens in Washington. Based on the success of these initial efforts, an experiment was conducted in 1999 to see if a combination of complementary radar methods could be used to calculate the discharge of a river without having any of the measuring equipment in the water. The cross-sectional area of the 183- meter (m) wide Skagit River in Washington State was measured using a GPR system with a single 100-MHz antenna suspended 0.5 to 3 m above the water surface from a cableway car. A van- mounted, side-looking pulsed-Doppler (10 gigahertz) radar system was used to collect water-surface velocity data across the same section of the river. The combined radar data sets were used to calculate the river discharge and the results compared closely to the discharge measurement made by using the standard in-water measurement techniques. The depth to the river bottom, which was determined from the GPR data by using a radar velocity of 0.04 meters per nanosecond in water, was about 3 m, which was within 0.25 m of the manually measured values.

Washington↗

USGS2000

Desert basins of the Southwest

Ground water is among the Nation’s most important natural resources. It provides drinking water to urban and rural communities, supports irrigation and industry, sustains the flow of streams and rivers, and maintains riparian and wetland ecosystems. In many areas of the Nation, the future sustainability of ground-water resources is at risk from overuse and contamination. Because ground-water systems typically respond slowly to human actions, a long-term perspective is needed to manage this valuable resource. This publication is one in a series of fact sheets that describe ground-water-resource issues across the United States, as well as some of the activities of the U.S. Geological Survey that provide information to help others develop, manage, and protect ground-water resources in a sustainable manner. Ground-water resources in the Southwest are among the most overused in the United States. Natural recharge to aquifers is low and pumping in many areas has resulted in lowering of water tables. The consequences of large-scale removal of water from storage are becoming increasingly evident. These consequences include land subsidence; loss of springs, streams, wetlands and associated habitat; and degradation of water quality. Water managers are now seeking better ways of managing ground-water resources while looking for supplemental sources of water. This fact sheet reviews basic information on ground water in the desert basins of the Southwest. Also described are some activities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that are providing scientific information for sustainable management of ground-water resources in the Southwest. Ground-water sustainability is defined as developing and using ground water in a way that can be maintained for an indefinite time without causing unacceptable environmental, economic, or social consequences.

Arizona;California;Nevada;New Mexico;Utah↗

USGS2006

Land Cover Trends Project

The Land Cover Trends Project is designed to document the types, rates, causes, and consequences of land cover change from 1973 to 2000 within each of the 84 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level III ecoregions that span the conterminous United States. The project's objectives are to: * Develop a comprehensive methodology using probability sampling and change analysis techniques and Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM), and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) data for estimating regional land cover change. * Characterize the spatial and temporal characteristics of conterminous U.S. land cover change for five periods from 1973 to 2000 (nominally 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000). * Document the regional driving forces and consequences of change. * Prepare a national synthesis of land cover change.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2024

The Native American Research Assistantship Program—Building capacity for Indigenous water-resources monitoring

Intertribal networks for collecting and analyzing hydrologic and environmental data are growing. The U.S. Geological Survey can be a key partner with Tribal Nations in the further development of network capacity. A first step is the internship opportunity available through the partnership between the USGS and The Wildlife Society: The Native American Research Assistantship Program.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1987

Water-quality data-collection activities in Colorado and Ohio; Phase II, Evaluation of 1984 field and laboratory quality-assurance practices

Serious questions have been raised by Congress about the usefulness of water-quality data for addressing issues of regional and national scope and, especially, for characterizing the current quality of the Nation's streams and ground water. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey has undertaken a pilot study in Colorado and Ohio to (1) determine the characteristics of current (1984) water-quality data-collection activities of Federal, regional, State, and local agencies, and academic institutions; and (2) determine how well the data from these activities, collected for various purposes and using different procedures, can be used to improve our ability to answer major broad-scope questions, such as: A. What are (or were) natural or near-natural water-quality conditions? B. What are existing water-quality conditions? C. How has water quality changed, and how do the changes relate to human activities? Colorado and Ohio were chosen for the pilot study largely because they represent regions with different types of waterquality concerns and programs. The study has been divided into three phases, the objectives of which are: Phase I--Inventory water-quality data-collection programs, including costs, and identify those programs that met a set of broad criteria for producing data that are potentially appropriate for water-quality assessments of regional and national scope. Phase II--Evaluate the quality assurance of field and laboratory procedures used in producing the data from programs that met the broad criteria of Phase I. Phase III--Compile the qualifying data and evaluate the adequacy of this data base for addressing selected water-quality questions of regional and national scope. Water-quality data are collected by a large number of organizations for diverse purposes ranging from meeting statutory requirements to research on water chemistry. Combining these individual data bases is an appealing and potentially cost-effective way to attempt to develop a data base adequate for regional or national water-quality assessments. However, to combine data from diverse sources, field and laboratory procedures used to produce the data need to be equivalent and need to meet specific qualityassurance standards. It is these factors that are the focus of Phase II, which is described in this report. In the first phase of this study, an inventory was made of all public organizations and academic institutions that undertook water-quality data-collection activities in Colorado and Ohio in 1984. Water-quality programs identified in Phase I were tested against a set of broad screening criteria. A total of 44 waterquality programs in Colorado and 29 programs in Ohio passed the Phase-I screen and were examined in Phase II. These programs accounted for an estimated 165,000 analyses in Colorado and 76,300 analyses in Ohio for 20 selected constituents and properties. Although qualifying programs included both surface- and ground-water sampling, they emphasized surface waters and produced few groundwater analyses (3,660 for Colorado and 470 for Ohio). For Phase II, information about field and laboratory qualityassurance practices was provided by each organization and its supporting laboratories through questionnaires. This information was evaluated against a set of specific criteria for field and laboratory practices. The criteria were developed from guidelines published by public agencies and professional organizations such as the American Public Health Association, the U.Sc, Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Each of the eight criteria that comprise the Phase-II screen fall into one of two major categories--field practices or laboratory practices.

Colorado, Ohio↗

USGS2007

Occurrence of organic wastewater compounds in selected surface-water supplies, Triangle area of North Carolina, 2002-2005

Selected organic wastewater compounds, such as household, industrial, and agricultural-use compounds, sterols, pharmaceuticals, and antibiotics, were measured at eight sites classified as drinking-water supplies in the Triangle Area of North Carolina. From October 2002 through July 2005, seven of the sites were sampled twice, and one site was sampled 28 times, for a total of 42 sets of environmental samples. Samples were analyzed for as many as 126 compounds using three laboratory analytical methods. These methods were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to detect low levels (generally less than or equal to 1.0 microgram per liter) of the target compounds in filtered water. Because analyses were conducted on filtered samples, the results presented in this report may not reflect the total concentration of organic wastewater compounds in the waters that were sampled. Various quality-control samples were used to quality assure the results in terms of method performance and possible laboratory or field contamination. Of the 108 organic wastewater compounds that met method performance criteria, 24 were detected in at least one sample during the study. These 24 compounds included 3 pharmaceutical compounds, 6 fire retardants and plasticizers, 3 antibiotics, 3 pesticides, 6 fragrances and flavorants, 1 disinfectant, and 2 miscellaneous-use compounds, all of which likely originated from a variety of domestic, industrial, and agricultural sources. The 10 most frequently detected compounds included acetyl-hexamethyl tetrahydronaphthalene and hexahydro-hexamethyl cyclopentabenzopyran (synthetic musks that are widely used in personal-care products and are known endocrine disruptors); tri(2-chloroethyl) phosphate, tri(dichloroisopropyl) phosphate, and tributyl phosphate (fire retardants); metolachlor (herbicide); caffeine (nonprescription stimulant); cotinine (metabolite of nicotine); acetaminophen (nonprescription analgesic); and sulfamethoxazole (prescription antibiotic). The occurrence and distribution of organic wastewater compounds varied considerably among sampling sites, but at least one compound was detected at every location. The most organic wastewater compounds (19) were detected at the Neuse River above U.S. 70 at Smithfield, where two-thirds of the total number of samples were collected. The fewest organic wastewater compounds (1) were detected at the Eno River at Hillsborough. The detection of multiple organic wastewater compounds was common, with a median of 3.5 and as many as 12 compounds observed in individual samples. Some compounds, including acetaminophen, cotinine, tri(2-chloroethyl) phosphate, and metolachlor, were detected at numerous sites and in numerous samples, indicating that they are widely distributed in the environment. Other organic wastewater compounds, including acetyl-hexamethyl tetrahydronaphthalene and hexahydro-hexamethyl cyclopentabenzopyran, were detected in numerous samples but at only one location, indicating that sources of these compounds are more site specific. Results indicate that municipal wastewater may be a source of antibiotics and synthetic musks; however, the three sites in this study that are located downstream from wastewater discharges also receive runoff from agricultural, urban, and rural residential lands. Source identification was not an objective of this study. Concentrations of individual compounds generally were less than 0.5 microgram per liter. No concentrations exceeded Federal drinking-water standards or health advisories, nor water-quality criteria established by the State of North Carolina; however, such criteria are available for only a few of the compounds that were studied. Compared with other surface waters that have been sampled across the United States, the Triangle Area water-supply sites had fewer detections of organic wastewater compounds; however, differences in study design and analytical methods used among studies must be considered when mak

North Carolina↗

USGS2017

Sea turtles, light pollution, and citizen science: A preliminary report

Sea turtles are an important ecological resource for Gulf Islands National Seashore’s (Gulf Islands) waters and shorelines. Regionally, sea turtles face anthropogenic threats from situations such as entanglement in fishing gear and ingestion of marine debris, as well as possible changes in sex ratios due to increasing temperatures related to human-induced global warming. Locally, light pollution from residential, commercial, and industrial neighborhoods from nearby cities impacts the entirety of Gulf Islands, which spans 160 miles along the Gulf Coast, from Florida to Mississippi, and includes critical habitat for threatened and endangered sea turtles. Because light pollution has been hypothesized to negatively impact sea turtle nesting and hatchling survival, Gulf Islands undertook an effort to understand the relationship between light pollution and sea turtles and create unique educational and outreach opportunities by launching a citizen science program called Turtle Teens Helping in the Seashore (Turtle THIS). At the onset, the Turtle THIS program had two primary goals: quantify the association between light pollution and sea turtle nesting and hatching events using rigorous scientific methods; and initiate a citizen science volunteer program to provide youth with hands-on science and environmental stewardship roles, where they also gain employable skills and career opportunities. With multiple scientific hypotheses to consider, the development of a citizen science program became crucial. Such circumstances allowed Turtle THIS to grow a volunteer and intern program, quantify hypothesized light effects on sea turtles through developed methods, and begin to gather preliminary findings.

Florida↗

USGS2011

An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

The predictions from most forest ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. However, few evaluation exercises for model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers using these models to develop natural resource management policies, as they cannot evaluate the extent to which predictions stemming from the simulation of alternative management scenarios may result in significant environmental or economic differences. Various numerical methods, such as sensitivity/uncertainty analyses, or bootstrap methods, may be used to evaluate models and the errors associated with their outputs. However, the application of each of these methods carries unique challenges which decision makers do not necessarily understand; guidance is required when interpreting the output generated from each model. This paper proposes a decision flow chart in the form of an analytical framework to help decision makers apply, in an orderly fashion, different steps involved in examining the model outputs. The analytical framework is discussed with regard to the definition of problems and objectives and includes the following topics: model selection, identification of alternatives, modelling tasks and selecting alternatives for developing policy or implementing management scenarios. Its application is illustrated using an on-going exercise in developing silvicultural guidelines for a forest management enterprise in Ontario, Canada.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2017

Anticoagulant rodenticides and wildlife: Introduction

Rodents have interacted with people since the beginning of systematic food storage by humans in the early Neolithic era. Such interactions have had adverse outcomes such as threats to human health, spoiling and consumption of food sources, damage to human infrastructure and detrimental effects on indigenous island wildlife (through inadvertent anthropogenic assisted introductions). These socio/economic and environmental impacts illustrate the clear need to control populations of commensal rodents. Different methods have been applied historically but the main means of control in the last decades is through the application of rodenticides, mainly anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs) that inhibit blood clotting. The so-called First Generation Anticoagulant Rodenticides (FGARs) proved highly effective but rodents increasingly developed resistance. This led to a demand for more effective alternative compounds and paved the way to the development of Second Generation Anticoagulant Rodenticides (SGARs). These were more acutely toxic and persistent, making them more effective but also increasing the risks of exposure of non-target species and secondary poisoning of predatory species. SGARs often fail the environmental thresholds of different regulatory frameworks because of these negative side-effects, but their use is still permitted because of the overwhelming societal needs for rodent control and the lack of effective alternatives. This book provides a state-of-the-art overview of the scientific advancements in assessment of environmental exposure, effects and risks of currently used ARs. This is discussed in relation to the societal needs for rodent control, including risk mitigation and development of alternatives.

Book chapter↗