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At least 1,549 records · Page 86Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Integrated hydrologic modeling of a transboundary aquifer system —Lower Rio Grande

For more than 30 years the agreements developed for the aquifer systems of the lower Rio Grande and related river compacts of the Rio Grande River have evolved into a complex setting of transboundary conjunctive use. The conjunctive use now includes many facets of water rights, water use, and emerging demands between the states of New Mexico and Texas, the United States and Mexico, and various water-supply agencies. The analysis of the complex relations between irrigation and streamflow supplyand-demand components and the effects of surface-water and groundwater use requires an integrated hydrologic model to track all of the use and movement of water. MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MFFMP) provides the integrated approach needed to assess the stream-aquifer interactions that are dynamically affected by irrigation demands on streamflow allotments that are supplemented with groundwater pumpage. As a first step to the ongoing full implementation of MF-FMP by the USGS, the existing model (LRG_2007) was modified to include some FMP features, demonstrating the ability to simulate the existing streamflow-diversion relations known as the D2 and D3 curves, departure of downstream deliveries from these curves during low allocation years and with increasing efficiency upstream, and the dynamic relation between surface-water conveyance and estimates of pumpage and recharge. This new MF-FMP modeling framework can now internally analyze complex relations within the Lower Rio Grande Hydrologic Model (LRGHM_2011) that previous techniques had limited ability to assess.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2006

Relations among pH, sulfate, and metals concentrations in anthracite and bituminous coal-mine discharges, Pennsylvania

Water-quality data for discharges from 140 abandoned mines in the Bituminous and Anthracite Coalfields of Pennsylvania illustrate relations among pH, sulfate, and dissolved metal concentrations. The pH for the 140 samples ranged from 2.7 to 7.3, with two modes at pH 2.5 to 4 (acidic) and 6 to 7 (near neutral). Generally, flow rates were smaller and solute concentrations were greater for low-pH samples; flow rates increased with pH. Although the pH distribution was similar for the bituminous and anthracite subsets, the bituminous discharges had smaller median flow rates, greater concentrations of sulfate, iron, and aluminum, and smaller concentrations of barium and lead than anthracite discharges with the same pH values. The observed relations between the pH and constituent concentrations can be attributed to (1) dilution of acidic water by alkaline ground water; (2) solubility control of aluminum, iron, manganese, barium, and lead by hydroxide, sulfate, and/or carbonate minerals; and (3) aqueous sulfate-complex formation. The formation of AlSO 4 + and AlHSO 4 +2 complexes adds to the total dissolved aluminum concentration at pH of equilibrium with aluminum hydroxide or hydroxysulfate minerals and can account for 10 to 20 times greater concentrations of dissolved aluminum in bituminous discharges compared to anthracite discharges at similar pH. Sulfate complexation also can account for 10 to 30 times greater concentrations of dissolved ferric iron concentrations at equilibrium with ferrihydrite (Fe(OH) 3 ) and/or schwertmannite (Fe 8 O 8 (OH) 4.5 (SO 4 ) 1.75 ) at pH of 3 to 5. In contrast, lower barium and lead concentrations in bituminous than anthracite discharges indicates elevated sulfate concentration could decrease mobility of these metals by the formation of insoluble minerals such as barite (BaSO 4 ) or anglesite (PbSO 4 ). Most samples were saturated with barite, but none were saturated with anglesite. Hence, lead concentrations could be controlled by coprecipitation with barite and/or by adsorption to schwertmannite or another sulfate-bearing oxide.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2017

The history of late holocene surface-faulting earthquakes on the central segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

The Wasatch fault (WFZ)—Utah’s longest and most active normal fault—forms a prominent eastern boundary to the Basin and Range Province in northern Utah. To provide paleoseismic data for a Wasatch Front regional earthquake forecast, we synthesized paleoseismic data to define the timing and displacements of late Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes on the central five segments of the WFZ. Our analysis yields revised histories of large (M ~7) surface-faulting earthquakes on the segments, as well as estimates of earthquake recurrence and vertical slip rate. We constrain the timing of four to six earthquakes on each of the central segments, which together yields a history of at least 24 surface-faulting earthquakes since ~6 ka. Using earthquake data for each segment, inter-event recurrence intervals range from about 0.6 to 2.5 kyr, and have a mean of 1.2 kyr. Mean recurrence, based on closed seismic intervals, is ~1.1–1.3 kyr per segment, and when combined with mean vertical displacements per segment of 1.7–2.6 m, yield mean vertical slip rates of 1.3–2.0 mm/yr per segment. These data refine the late Holocene behavior of the central WFZ; however, a significant source of uncertainty is whether structural complexities that define the segments of the WFZ act as hard barriers to ruptures propagating along the fault. Thus, we evaluate fault rupture models including both single-segment and multi-segment ruptures, and define 3–17-km-wide spatial uncertainties in the segment boundaries. These alternative rupture models and segment-boundary zones honor the WFZ paleoseismic data, take into account the spatial and temporal limitations of paleoseismic data, and allow for complex ruptures such as partial-segment and spillover ruptures. Our data and analyses improve our understanding of the complexities in normal-faulting earthquake behavior and provide geological inputs for regional earthquake-probability and seismic hazard assessments.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

Midcontinent microcosm: Geology of the Atkins lake - Marengo falls area (Field trip 2)

Archean and Proterozoic rocks exposed over about 16km2 between Atkins Lake and Coffee Lake in southeastern Bayfield County (Fig. 1) chronicle almost all of the major Precambrian geologic events in the history of the southern Superior Craton. The oldest rocks are part of a locally gneissic quartz monzonite complex, the Puritan Batholith, with an igneous Rb-Sr age of 2710+140 Ma (Sims et al., 1977). At the regional scale, this complex is part of one of the youngest Archean granite-greenstone belts in the Superior Province, and it intrudes greenstones of the Neoarchean Ramsay Formation. In the Atkins Lake – Marengo River area, the Puritan Batholith is nonconformably overlain by the Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2200 Ma) Bad River Dolomite. The Bad River Dolomite is in turn separated by an unconformity from rocks of the ca. 1875 Ma Menominee Group (Palms Formation and Ironwood Iron-formation), which locally contain mafic volcanic rocks and diabase sills (Cannon et al., 2008). These Paleoproterozoic rocks provide insight into climate and biogeochemical cycles during the transition to an oxidizing atmosphere (Bekker et al., 2006) and have deformational fabrics (folds, strong cleavage, local mylonite zones) that record the ca. 1850 Ma Penokean Orogeny. The youngest rocks in the area are Mesoproterozoic basaltic lava flows (Siemens Creek Volcanics, ca. 1110 Ma) and a layered mafic complex (the Mineral Lake Intrusion, also ca. 1100 Ma), both related to the Mid-continent Rift. All of the stratified units show static contact metamorphic textures near their contacts with the Mineral Lake Intrusion. Thus the area constitutes a microcosm of the regional bedrock geology, and the cross-cutting relationships among the units provide clear constraints on the relative timing of different phases of deformation and magmatism (Cannon etal., 2008, Bjørnerud, 2010a).

Wisconsin↗

USGS1997

Effects of El Nino on streamflow, lake level, and landslide potential

One of the most important sources of year-to-year climate variation in the Southwest is the El Niño phenomenon of the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is a natural but largely unpredictable condition that results from complex interplay among clouds and storms, regional winds, oceanic temperatures, and ocean currents along the equatorial Pacific. Under "normal" conditions, the tropical trade winds blow from east to west, Figure 1. Schematic diagram of normal and El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. From NOAA El Niño website. ponding up warm water in the western Pacific. In the eastern Pacific, the trade winds pull up cold, deep, nutrient-rich waters along the equator from the Ecuadorian coast to the central Pacific. The warmth of the western Pacific results in a particularly vigorous hydrologic cycle there with towering cumulus clouds and tropical storms that "radiate" atmospheric waves and disturbances across vast regions of the globe. Heat and moisture lofted into the upper atmosphere by the clouds and storms are distributed by high-altitude winds across vast regions of the globe. During an El Niño, this situation is disrupted and the trade winds weaken, thus reducing the upwelling of cool waters in the eastern Pacific and allowing the pool of warm water in the west to drift eastward toward South America. As the central and eastern Pacific warms, atmospheric pressure gradients along the equator weaken, and the trade winds diminish even more. These changes in sea-level pressure of the atmosphere are characteristic of the strongest El Niño and were identified as the "Southern Oscillation" of the global atmosphere by Sir Gilbert Walker in the early decades of this century. A chicken-and-egg relation exists between the changes in ocean temperatures and changes in winds (and atmospheric pressure gradients); the two sets of changes reinforce and drive each other but neither is clearly or universally "the" initiator of El Niño. Ocean temperatures and surface winds interact to form the complex process, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The interactions can be set off by subtle changes in one or the other, by buffeting from other parts of the tropics, or from regions beyond the tropics. Such a complex interplay and its uncertain (and variable) origins are the primary limitations on our ability to predict El Niño. As the waters of the central and eastern Pacific warm, the powerful tropical Pacific storms begin to form farther east than usual (Fig. 1). As the distribution of storms spreads east along the equator, their influence on global weather systems also changes. Most notably, for our purposes, the jet stream over the North Pacific Ocean is invigorated and pulled farther south than normal, where it collects moisture and storms and carries them to the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. During an El Niño, the trade winds are too weak to cause upwelling of nutrient-rich waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. Generations of South American fisherman thus have recognized these conditions by the disappearance of their standard catch, commonly during December and January, every three to seven years. Because of the near coincidence in timing between these conditions and Christmas, the fishing communities have called the phenomenon "El Niño", for the Christ child. The geologic record suggests that El Niño conditions have been a part of earth's climate for at least several thousand years. An El Niño event usually lasts for several seasons, and, along with its other effects, represents an interruption of the "normal" seasonal cycle of the tropical climate. After a few seasons, and usually during spring time (in the Northern Hemisphere), the seasonal cycle reasserts itself and the tropical ocean cools back to the normal east-to-west sea-surface temperature gradients. Sometimes the warm El Niño events give way to unusually cold sea-surface temperatures and unusually strong trade winds, a condition now called La Niña. On other occasions, La Niñas may begin on their own, without an immediately preceding El Niño. The effects of the El Niño and La Niña on global climate are, in part, mirror images of each other. For example, drought is a common occurrence in the southwestern United States during La Niña, in contrast to the wet years associated with El Niño.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, U↗

USGS2020

Local to landscape-level controls of water fluxes through Hawaiian forests: Effects of invasive animals and plants on soil infiltration capacity across substrate and moisture gradients

Given the potential effect of invasive plants and animals to water fluxes through forests, the invasive-driven degradation of native ecosystems is a topic of great concern for many downstream land and water managers. The infiltration rate determines the partitioning between runoff and infiltration into soil in Hawaiian forests and beyond. Thus, to explore the ecohydrological effects of plant and animal invasion in mesic and wet forests in Hawaii, we measured soil infiltration capacity in multiple fenced (i.e., ungulate-free)/unfenced and native/invaded forest sites along moisture and substrate age gradients across the islands of Hawai‘i and Kaua‘i. We also characterized forest composition and structure and soil characteristics at these sites to assess the direct and vegetation-mediated impacts of invasive species on infiltration capacity. Infiltration capacity is highly variable across forested sites and the wider landscape. Much of this variability is determined by a complex set of soil, vegetation, and disturbance factors that affect infiltration capacity at the immediate surrounding of measurement plots. Consequently, the effect of any given factor can be masked by variability in other factors. However, by controlling for variability in soil and vegetation conditions at a local plot level, we found that the presence of invasive species in forests has complex and sometimes non-intuitive effects on infiltration. Our final models showed that invasive ungulates negatively affect soil infiltration capacity consistently across the wide moisture and substrate age gradients considered. Additionally, because several soil characteristics known to be affected by ungulates were associated with local infiltration rates (e.g., soil organic matter, bare soil cover, soil depth), the long-term secondary effects of high ungulate densities in Hawaiian forests may be higher than effects observed in this study. These results provide clear evidence for land managers that ungulate control efforts likely improve ecohydrologic function to mesic and wet forest systems critical to protecting downstream and nearshore resources and maintaining groundwater recharge. Compared to ungulate effects, the effect of invasive plants on water infiltration capacity in Hawaiian forests appeared much more complex. In general, elements of forest structure including increased canopy, understory and floor cover, greater presence of large roots, and lower grass and bare soil covers were positively associated with water infiltration. Whether native or not, a plant species’ potential to alter infiltration rates in Hawaiian forests was likely to depend on its physiognomy and how it affects forest community structure. For instance, while the cover of native dominant tree ‘ōhi‘a, Metrosideros polymorpha, was found to be positively associated with infiltration capacity (perhaps as an indicator of overall forest integrity), invasive Himalayan ginger, Hedychium gardnerianum, was also positively correlated with infiltration capacity, possibly due to preferential flow channels created by the presence of large root mats. Few studies have conducted comprehensive integrated ecological and hydrological sampling in forests of high conservation value. While we show there are large benefits to understanding how conservation efforts may help shape water fluxes, we also found that the commonly used study design for infiltration studies used here and elsewhere (i.e., adjacent paired sites) could be modified to provide more accurate effects of invasion in future studies for ecosystems in Hawaii and beyond.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Fish out of water: Insights from a case study of a highly social animal that failed the mirror self-recognition test

Mirror self-recognition (MSR) tests have been conducted with a variety of species with the aim of examining whether subject animals have the capacity for self-awareness. To date, the majority of animals that have convincingly passed are highly social mammals whose wild counterparts live in complex societies, though there is much debate concerning what constitutes passing and what passing means in terms of self-awareness. Amid recent reports that a fish (cleaner wrasse, Labroides dimidiatus ) passed, it is intriguing that a mammal as highly social, tolerant, attentive, and cooperative as the grey wolf ( Canis lupus ) reportedly failed the test. Given the many possible reasons for failure, we aimed to elucidate the wolves’ responses at various stages of the MSR test to pinpoint potential problem areas where species-appropriate modifications to the test may be needed. Thus, we evaluated 6 socialized, captive grey wolves as a case study of failed MSR in socially complex canids. At a minimum, wolves did not respond to their reflection as an unfamiliar conspecific. Unfortunately, the wolves rapidly lost interest in the mirror and were uninterested in the applied marks. We note limitations of the MSR test for this species, recommend changes for future MSR tests of wolves, discuss other emerging self-cognizance methods for socially complex canids, and highlight the need for a suite of ecologically relevant, potentially scalable self-cognizance methods. Our findings and recommendations may aid in understanding self-cognizance in other untested highly social, cooperatively-hunting, coursing, terrestrial carnivores such as African wild dogs ( Lycaon pictus ), spotted hyenas ( Crocuta crocuta ), and African lions ( Panthera leo ).

International Journal of Comparative Psychology↗

USGS2001

Very different crustal response to extreme extension in the southern Basin and Range and Colorado Plateau transition

Clustered about the southwest edge of the Colorado Plateau lie many highly extended terranes. Among these are metamorphic core complexes, distinguished by low-angle normal faults with sufficient offset to expose middle crustal rocks at higher elevation relative to the surrounding areas. About 150 km to the southwest, strong extension in the Salton Trough manifests itself very differently; high-angle normal faults form deep basins, with the strongest extension causing subsidence beneath sea level. We ask why strong extension takes such different forms, and, to help answer the question, we take advantage of seismic and gravity profiles that cross through the Salton Trough, metamorphic core complexes, and the Colorado Plateau. We propose that the relative rate of extension vs. intrusion of crust by magmatism and crustal flow controls the extensional style. We further show that conditions may have been ideal for core complex formation along the edges of the Colorado Plateau because its thick crust and high elevation provided a source of crustal flow and the pressure gradient to drive the flow.

California↗

USGS1976

Geology of central Costa Rica and its implications in the geologic history of the region

The oldest rocks in Costa Rica, the Nicoya Complex, crop out in an arcuate belt along the Pacific coast and outside the mapped area. The complex is an ophiolite assemblage and indicates that a Late Cretaceous arc-trench system, probably a southerly extension of the Middle America Trench, lay along and west of the present Pacific coast. Polarity of the system is indicated by the presence of a volcanic olivine basalt arc east of the ophiolite belt and by a younger magmatic arc farther east. Relative lack of metamorphism of the ophiolite assemblage suggests that the rocks were obducted rather than subducted. Fossil evidence indicates that the complex was emplaced no later than the late Campanian. By the late Eocene both the ophiolite assemblage and the olivine basalt arc had been established as major sediment sources for basins that lay to the east, and they continued as such through the Oligocene and possibly into the middle Miocene. Widespread deposition of trachyandesite lava and volcaniclastic sediments, local marine planation, uplift, and renewed volcanism mark what is presumed to be the end of the Miocene. Extreme south-to-north coarsening of the unconformably superposed Doan Formation and the presence of corals in the shaly facies of the Doan in the southern part of the mapped areas suggest that marine sedimentation there was undisturbed by orogeny and that intrusion of the Talamancan magmatic rocks must have followed deposition of the Doan. Volcaniclastic block breccia, characteristic of northern exposures of the Doan, indicates that volcanism in the proto- Cordillera Central had begun by at least Doan time. Volcanism has been a dominant process in central Costa Rica since that time.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗

USGS2024

Dam removal cost databases and drivers

The United States (U.S.) has over 90,000 dams listed in the National Inventory of Dams that provide vital infrastructure to support water management for municipal and industrial uses including irrigation, hydropower, flood control, navigation, recreation, and habitat, among other uses (NID 2023). The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operate and maintain approximately 489 and 740 dams, respectively, as well as associated structures which provide flood risk management, navigation, water supply, hydropower, environmental stewardship, fish and wildlife conservation, and recreation benefits. As dams age, structural and operational maintenance investments increase until a time when decisions on whether to rehabilitate, replace, or decommission the dam need to be made. While most dams continue to provide important value even with maintenance requirements, at least 2,000 dams have been removed in the U.S. during the past 110 years, with an upward trend in the last few decades (American Rivers 2023). Decommissioning a dam may be considered when the purpose of the dam is no longer needed or other factors such as dam safety, fish passage, recreation safety, or river restoration goals take higher priority and are more economically feasible for the dam owner long-term. Dam safety programs, river restoration programs, and asset class management programs need cost estimating methods to consider dam decommissioning when appropriate. Traditional cost estimating approaches in planning stages focus mainly on dam removal construction and may leave out or have uncertainty on important complexities that can have substantial effects on total costs and be critical for project success. As the numbers of dam removal case studies increase, a growing set of cost data has become available (Duda et al. 2023a; Tullos and Bountry 2023; American Rivers 2022). However, total costs vary over five orders of magnitude for similar size dams, and it was unclear why. We evaluated three sets of cost data that had varying level of details regarding elements contributing to dam removal costs reported by project managers working on the dam removal studies and construction means and methods. We created planning-level cost estimating tools to assist with projects needing to consider the dam removal alternative: (1) new databases of case studies (Duda et al. 2023a; Tullos and Bountry 2023); (2) scoping questions to help determine if complexity cost drivers will be present; (3) machine learning based regression trees to estimate a potential cost range; and (4) a Computation Guide for Cost Estimating that can be used to inform discussions on potential dam removal cost items, quantities, and unit costs (appendix A). The collected data showed that dam height is important but is not a reliable predictor of the removal cost without considering other elements. However, knowing some basic characteristics about the average annual flow and geographic location of the dam site, in addition to dam size, can improve the ability to use past case studies for planning-level cost estimating. By additionally incorporating scoping questions related to sediment removal, mitigation, or other infrastructure, the likelihood of complexity cost drivers and the initial uncertainty of a cost estimate can be further reduced especially for small dams. Applying the Computation Guide for Cost Estimating requires more robust information but helps users reduce cost uncertainty. This step further refines the dam removal objective, removal approach (partial or full; phased or instantaneous), engineering design, construction means and methods, quantities, and unit costs, and results in a quantitative cost estimate.

Final Report↗

USGS2014

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2014

Assessment of parametric uncertainty for groundwater reactive transport modeling,

The validity of using Gaussian assumptions for model residuals in uncertainty quantification of a groundwater reactive transport model was evaluated in this study. Least squares regression methods explicitly assume Gaussian residuals, and the assumption leads to Gaussian likelihood functions, model parameters, and model predictions. While the Bayesian methods do not explicitly require the Gaussian assumption, Gaussian residuals are widely used. This paper shows that the residuals of the reactive transport model are non-Gaussian, heteroscedastic, and correlated in time; characterizing them requires using a generalized likelihood function such as the formal generalized likelihood function developed by Schoups and Vrugt (2010). For the surface complexation model considered in this study for simulating uranium reactive transport in groundwater, parametric uncertainty is quantified using the least squares regression methods and Bayesian methods with both Gaussian and formal generalized likelihood functions. While the least squares methods and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function produce similar Gaussian parameter distributions, the parameter distributions of Bayesian uncertainty quantification using the formal generalized likelihood function are non-Gaussian. In addition, predictive performance of formal generalized likelihood function is superior to that of least squares regression and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function. The Bayesian uncertainty quantification is conducted using the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM (zs) ) algorithm; as a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, it is a robust tool for quantifying uncertainty in groundwater reactive transport models. For the surface complexation model, the regression-based local sensitivity analysis and Morris- and DREAM (ZS) -based global sensitivity analysis yield almost identical ranking of parameter importance. The uncertainty analysis may help select appropriate likelihood functions, improve model calibration, and reduce predictive uncertainty in other groundwater reactive transport and environmental modeling.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2015

Context of ancient aqueous environments on Mars from in situ geologic mapping at Endeavour Crater

Using the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity , we have compiled one of the first field geologic maps on Mars while traversing the Noachian terrain along the rim of the 22 km diameter Endeavour Crater (Latitude −2°16′33″, Longitude −5°10′51″). In situ mapping of the petrographic, elemental, structural, and stratigraphic characteristics of outcrops and rocks distinguishes four mappable bedrock lithologic units. Three of these rock units predate the surrounding Burns formation sulfate-rich sandstones and one, the Matijevic Formation, represents conditions on early Mars predating the formation of Endeavour Crater. The stratigraphy assembled from these observations includes several geologic unconformities. The differences in lithologic units across these unconformities record changes in the character and intensity of the Martian aqueous environment over geologic time. Water circulated through fractures in the oldest rocks over periods long enough that texturally and elementally significant alteration occurred in fracture walls. These oldest pre-Endeavour rocks and their network of mineralized and altered fractures were preserved by burial beneath impact ejecta and were subsequently exhumed and exposed. The alteration along joints in the oldest rocks and the mineralized veins and concentrations of trace metals in overlying lithologic units is direct evidence that copious volumes of mineralized and/or hydrothermal fluids circulated through the early Martian crust. The wide range in intensity of structural and chemical modification from outcrop to outcrop along the crater rim shows that the ejecta of large (>8 km in diameter) impact craters is complex. These results imply that geologic complexity is to be anticipated in other areas of Mars where cratering has been a fundamental process in the local and regional geology and mineralogy.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2014

Uncertainty in the fate of soil organic carbon: A comparison of three conceptually different soil decomposition models

Conventional Q10 soil organic matter decomposition models and more complex microbial models are available for making projections of future soil carbon dynamics. However, it is unclear (1) how well the conceptually different approaches can simulate observed decomposition and (2) to what extent the trajectories of long-term simulations differ when using the different approaches. In this study, we compared three structurally different soil carbon (C) decomposition models (one Q10 and two microbial models of different complexity), each with a one- and two-horizon version. The models were calibrated and validated using 4 years of measurements of heterotrophic soil CO 2 efflux from trenched plots in a Dahurian larch ( Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantation. All models reproduced the observed heterotrophic component of soil CO 2 efflux, but the trajectories of soil carbon dynamics differed substantially in 100 year simulations with and without warming and increased litterfall input, with microbial models that produced better agreement with observed changes in soil organic C in long-term warming experiments. Our results also suggest that both constant and varying carbon use efficiency are plausible when modeling future decomposition dynamics and that the use of a short-term (e.g., a few years) period of measurement is insufficient to adequately constrain model parameters that represent long-term responses of microbial thermal adaption. These results highlight the need to reframe the representation of decomposition models and to constrain parameters with long-term observations and multiple data streams. We urge caution in interpreting future soil carbon responses derived from existing decomposition models because both conceptual and parameter uncertainties are substantial.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2015

Effects of simple acid leaching of crushed and powdered geological materials on high-precision Pb isotope analyses

We present new results of simple acid leaching experiments on the Pb isotope composition of USGS standard reference material powders and on ocean island basalt whole rock splits and powders. Rock samples were leached with cold 6 N HCl in an ultrasonic bath, then on a hot plate, and washed with ultrapure H 2 O before sample digestion in HF‐HNO 3 and chromatographic purification of Pb. Lead isotope analyses were measured by Tl‐doped MC‐ICPMS. Intrasession and intersession analytical reproducibilities of repeated analyses of both synthetic Pb solutions and Pb from single digests of chemically processed natural samples were generally better than 100 ppm (2 SD). The comparison of leached and unleached samples shows that leaching consistently removes variable amounts of contaminants that differ in Pb isotopic composition for different starting materials. For repeated digests of a single sample, analyses of leached samples reproduce better than those of unleached ones, confirming that leaching effectively removes most of the heterogeneously distributed extraneous Pb. Nevertheless, the external reproducibility of leached samples is still up to an order of magnitude worse than that of Pb solution standards (∼100 ppm). More complex leaching methods employed by earlier studies yield Pb isotope ratios within error of those produced by our method and at similar levels of reproducibility, demonstrating that our simple leaching method is as effective as more complex leaching techniques. Therefore, any Pb isotope heterogeneity among multiple leached digests of samples in excess of the external reproducibility is attributed to inherent isotopic heterogeneity of the sample. The external precision of ∼100 ppm (2 SD) achieved for Pb isotope ratio determination by Tl‐doped MC‐ICPMS is thus sufficient for most rocks. The full advantage of the most precise Pb isotope analytical methods is only realized in cases where the natural isotopic heterogeneity among samples in a studied suite is substantially below 100 ppm.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2017

Surface slip during large Owens Valley earthquakes

The 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is the third largest known historical earthquake in California. Relatively sparse field data and a complex rupture trace, however, inhibited attempts to fully resolve the slip distribution and reconcile the total moment release. We present a new, comprehensive record of surface slip based on lidar and field investigation, documenting 162 new measurements of laterally and vertically displaced landforms for 1872 and prehistoric Owens Valley earthquakes. Our lidar analysis uses a newly developed analytical tool to measure fault slip based on cross‐correlation of sublinear topographic features and to produce a uniquely shaped probability density function (PDF) for each measurement. Stacking PDFs along strike to form cumulative offset probability distribution plots (COPDs) highlights common values corresponding to single and multiple‐event displacements. Lateral offsets for 1872 vary systematically from ∼1.0 to 6.0 m and average 3.3 ± 1.1 m (2σ). Vertical offsets are predominantly east‐down between ∼0.1 and 2.4 m, with a mean of 0.8 ± 0.5 m. The average lateral‐to‐vertical ratio compiled at specific sites is ∼6:1. Summing displacements across subparallel, overlapping rupture traces implies a maximum of 7–11 m and net average of 4.4 ± 1.5 m, corresponding to a geologic M w ∼7.5 for the 1872 event. We attribute progressively higher‐offset lateral COPD peaks at 7.1 ± 2.0 m, 12.8 ± 1.5 m, and 16.6 ± 1.4 m to three earlier large surface ruptures. Evaluating cumulative displacements in context with previously dated landforms in Owens Valley suggests relatively modest rates of fault slip, averaging between ∼0.6 and 1.6 mm/yr (1σ) over the late Quaternary.

Book↗

USGS2015

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Maryland and Virginia↗

USGS2015

Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

Water Resources Research↗