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At least 1,549 records · Page 86Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Climate change in the Northeast and Midwest United States

The climate is changing rapidly in ways that have already impacted wildlife and their habitats. Here, we present a summary of the observed past and projected future climate changes in the region that are relevant to wildlife and ecosystems, as well as what we know and don’t know in order to raise managers’ confidence in their planning. A number of large-scale regional changes affect the overall terrestrial landscape within the Northeast and Midwest United States: Warming is occurring in every season, particularly in winter, at higher latitudes, at higher elevations, and inland (i.e. away from the ocean and lake coasts). Heatwaves may become more frequent, more intense, and last longer. Precipitation amounts are increasing, particularly in winter and with respect to highintensity events in summer. Snow is shifting to rain, leading to reduced snowpacks and extent of snow cover, as well as harder, crustier snowpacks. Atmospheric moisture content is likely to increase. Wind speeds are declining, though wind gusts may be intensifying. Streamflows are intensifying. Streams are warming. Thunderstorms may become more severe. Floods are intensifying, yet droughts are also on the rise as dry periods between events get longer. Blizzards and ice storms are occurring more often in some areas, though most areas experiencing milder winters (i.e., warmer and with less snow). Growing seasons are getting longer, with more growing degree days accumulating earlier in the season. In addition, localized climate change is occurring in specific regions: U.S. Atlantic coast Sea level is rising at an accelerating rate. Tropical cyclones and hurricanes may be intensifying and storm tracks have been shifting northward along the coast. Oceans are warming and becoming more acidic. Great Lakes The lakes are warming. Winter maximum lake ice extent is shrinking. Lake evaporation rates are increasing. Lake-effect snow events are becoming more severe, longer lasting, and shifting to rain, but occurring less often. Water levels have decreased, but may not be linked to anthropogenic climate change. Appalachians Warming may be occurring more rapidly at higher elevations. Greater intensification of heavy rainfall events may be occurring. In the short term (i.e., over the next 5-20 years), the direction and magnitude of warming in the global climate are mostly consistent across all emissions scenarios and with strong agreement across models. Accordingly, we are certain that the Northeast and Midwest will see longer growing seasons. We are likely to see shifts from snow to rain, though shifts in the amount of total precipitation (rain and snow) are less certain. Severe weather events (e.g., thunderstorms, tornadoes) are challenging to detect. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration trends are neither robustly observed nor consistent amongst modeling studies.

Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ke↗
USGS2013

Seasonal variation in age-specific movement patterns of red drum Sciaenops ocellatus inferred from conventional tagging and telemetry

We used 25 years of conventional tagging (n = 6173 recoveries) and 3 years of ultrasonic telemetry data (n = 105 transmitters deployed) to examine movement rates and directional preferences of four age classes of red drum Sciaenops ocellatus in North Carolina. Movement rates of tagged red drum were dependent on the age, region, and season of tagging. Age-1 and age-2 red drum tagged along the coast generally moved along the coast, while fish tagged in oligohaline waters far from the coast were primarily recovered in coastal regions in fall months. Adult (age-4+) red drum moved from overwintering grounds on the continental shelf through inlets into Pamlico Sound in spring and summer months and departed in fall. Few tagged red drum were recovered in adjacent states (0.6% of all recoveries); however, some adult red drum migrated seasonally from overwintering grounds in coastal North Carolina northward to Virginia in spring, returning in fall. Telemetered age-2 red drum displayed seasonal emigration from a small tributary, but upstream and downstream movements within the tributary were correlated with fluctuating salinity regimes and not season. Large-scale tagging and telemetry programs can provide valuable insights into the complex movement patterns of estuarine fish.

Report↗
USGS2019

Changes in breeding population sizes of double-crested Cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus in the Humboldt Bay area, California, 1924–2017

To better understand recent population growth of the Double-crested Cormorant Phalacrocorax auritus along the Pacific coast of North America, we assessed long-term breeding population trends in the Humboldt Bay area, California, using aerial photographic survey data collected since 1989 as well as available prior data. The earliest documentations of breeding (but without nest counts) are from 1924, 1943, and 1947 on the outer coast near Trinidad, and from 1959 in Humboldt Bay at Old Arcata Wharf. The breeding population increased from 188 nests (376 breeding birds) at one colony in 1961 to ~ 350 nests (700 breeding birds) at four colonies by 1980, and then to peaks of nearly 1,700 nests (3,400 breeding birds) in 1997 and 2004 at eight colonies. Breeding was documented at 13 coastal colonies through 2017. The population increased 100% (9 % per annum) from 1989 to 1997, decreased during the strong 1998 El Niño, and rebounded by 2004. After the 2004 peak, three years of available data indicated slight population decline. For the entire 1989–2017 period, the population increased by 91% (2% per annum). Artificial habitats in Humboldt Bay allowed most of the population growth, especially Teal Island, which was colonized in 1993 and became the largest colony in all but one year thereafter. Nest totals on the outer coast decreased, likely because of movements to the Humboldt Bay colonies, which are closer to main foraging areas, and because of competition for nesting space with Common Murres Uria aalge at one colony (False Cape Rocks). Future growth of the population in the Humboldt Bay area appears limited by the availability of disturbance-free breeding habitat. Declines may occur if artificial habitats are lost.

California↗
USGS1936

Means of recognizing source beds

Eight characteristics of sediments are considered as possible means of recognizing source beds: 1, quantity of organic matter in the sediments; 2, reducing power, which is a measure of ability of the sediments to reduce chromic acid; 3, color of sediments; 4, volatility of sediments; 5, degree of volatility, which is a measure of the volatility with respect to the organic content; 6, ratio of carbon to nitrogen in the sediments; 7, oxidation factor, which is an index of the state of oxidation of the sediments, and is the ratio of the carbon content to' the reducing power; and, 8, the nitrogen-reduction ratio, which is the ratio of the nitrogen content to the reducing power. Several thousand determinations of these characteristics have been made and averaged from more than 800 lithologic units from many areas in the California, Rocky Mountain, Mid Continent, East Texas, and Gulf Coast oil regions. The thickness of these units ranges from 50 ft. to 500 ft. Each of them has been classified according to its probable richness in source material of petroleum. Nearness to producing zones has been the basis of classification, as it seems more reasonable to assume that oil in general accumulates near where it is generated than to assume that it ordinarily accumulates far from where it is made. Three classes were made: 1, lithologic units within 250 ft. stratigraphically above or below an oil zone and less than 2 miles from an oil field; 2, (a) units within 500 ft. above or below an oil zone and within 15 miles of an oil field (excluding, of course, those that belong to the first class) and (b) units within 250 ft. stratigraphically of a horizon and more than 15 miles distant from an oil field, provided the unit is located within a region in which the horizon is generally productive of oil or yields significant quantity of oily substances when extracted with ether; and, 3, all other beds, viz., those more than 500 ft. above or below an oil horizon or more than 15 miles distant from an oil field and beds at greater distance if they are within 250 ft. of horizons that generally contain oil in the area. These three classes are designated in this report as " productive," " questionably productive," and " barren." " Productive " units naturally may contain spine beds that are poor in source material, and " barren " units may contain beds that are rich in source material; but, on the whole, the " productive " units-because of their nearness to oil zones-are more likely' to be richer in mother substances of petroleum than are the " barren " units. Each of the eight characteristics was averaged for each of the three classes of productivity, for each of the five oil areas: California, Rocky Mountains, Mid Continent, East Texas, and Gulf Coast. The average organic content of the "productive" and " barren " units was found to be approximately the same in each region studied, from which it is inferred that the quantity of organic matter in a sediment probably is not a reliable guide of the ability of the sediments to generate oil. The average reducing power of the " productive " beds is slightly greater than that of the "barren"; but the difference is so slight that the reducing power, also, probably is not a satisfactory guide to source beds. The color of, the sediments, in general, becomes darker as the organic content of the sediments increases; and, as the organic content seems to be a poor index of source beds, color presumably is not a serviceable means of recognizing source beds. The volatility of the " productive " beds is greater than that of the " barren " units in each of the five regions, but it differs so much from region to region that it cannot be used as an index of source beds unless the general volatility of the sediments in the region under consideration is known. For example, the average volatility of the " barren " units in California and the Rocky Mountain regions is greater than that of the " productive " units in the Mid Continent, East Texas, and Gulf Coast areas. The degree of volatility differs less from region to region than does the volatility, and in general exhibits a relationship to productivity equally as good as the volatility. The average ratio of carbon to nitrogen in each of the three regions from which data are available-Rocky Mountains, Mid Continent, and East Texas-is higher for " productive " beds than for " barren " units, but the ratio differs somewhat from one region to another. The oxidation factor of the " productive " units is approximately the same as that of the " barren " units in the Rocky Mountain region and in the East Texas region, but not in the Mid Continent region-where the oxidation factor of the " productive " units is definitely lower than that of the " barren " units. The average nitrogen-reduction ratio of the " productive " units is decidedly greater than that of the " barren " units in each of the five regions studied; and it, therefore, is the most reliable of the guides studied. Relatively few " productive " units have nitrogen-reduction ratios greater than 7.0, and relatively few " barren " units have ratios of less than 4.5. A considerable number of both " productive " and " barren " units have ratios ranging between 4.5 and 7.0, but even between these limits the productive units tend to be more commonly associated with low ratios than are the " barren " units. Four of these eight characteristics-volatility, degree of volatility, carbon-nitrogen ratio, and nitrogen-reduction ratio-therefore, give promise of being useful means of recognizing source beds; and one of them, the nitrogen-reduction ratio, is particularly encouraging. Additional studies of these four characteristics, and especially of the nitrogen-reduction ratio, are highly desirable.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1983

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Gulf of Mexico American Oyster

The American or eastern oyster (Crassostrea virrinica [Gmelin]), a bivalve in the family Ostreidae, is an important commercia and recreational species along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of North America and other areas (U.S. Pacific coast and Hawaii) where it has been introduced (Galtsoff 1964). It evolved over the last 25 million years (Miocene and Pliocene epochs) from an ancestral, Atlantic-Pacific species that also gave rise to the Central American oyster of the Pacific coast, Crassostrea corteziensis (Hertlein) (Stenzel 1971). It evolved to fill a eurytopic niche in coastal estuaries where it forms massive reefs in nearshore bays, sounds, lagoons, and river mouths. Its existence depends on suitable substratum (cultch and firm bottom sediments) and acceptable sal-inity conditions. The location and distribution of oyster reefs in a salt marsh-estuari ne ecosystem are not acci denta 1; rather, they result from the interacti on of many bi 01 ogi ca 1, chemica1, geo1ogi ca1, and phys i ca 1 processes (Butler 1954a; Marshall 1954; Bahr and Lanier 1981).

FWS/OBS↗
USGS2011

The influence of wave energy and sediment transport on seagrass distribution

A coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model (Delft3D) was used to simulate the water levels, waves, and currents associated with a seagrass ( Zostera marina ) landscape along a 4-km stretch of coast in Puget Sound, WA, USA. A hydroacoustic survey of seagrass percent cover and nearshore bathymetry was conducted, and sediment grain size was sampled at 53 locations. Wave energy is a primary factor controlling seagrass distribution at the site, accounting for 73% of the variability in seagrass minimum depth and 86% of the variability in percent cover along the shallow, sandy portions of the coast. A combination of numerical simulations and a conceptual model of the effect of sea-level rise on the cross-shore distribution of seagrass indicates that the area of seagrass habitat may initially increase and that wave dynamics are an important factor to consider in predicting the effect of sea-level rise on seagrass distributions in wave-exposed areas.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Home ranges and movements of two diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin macrospilota) in northwest Florida

The diamondback terrapin ( Malaclemys terrapin ) is a small estuarine turtle distributed along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the USA that is threatened by drowning in crab pots, road mortality, exploitation in the pet trade, and habitat loss. Little is known about the movement patterns and home ranges of these turtles, particularly along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. Satellite tags were deployed on two adult female terrapins captured at two distinct sites in Northwest Florida. A first-difference correlated random walk approach was used to determine distances traveled and estimate home range for each individual. The two terrapins were tracked for 146 and 147 days, and the total distance traveled for each terrapin was 70.1 km and 723.0 km, respectively. The maximum distance moved from capture location was 11.3 km and 49.6 km. Home ranges here were much larger than those previously reported in other studies. The movements we documented were greater than expected and indicate habitat protection for this species may need to be expanded to incorporate more distant foraging sites.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Temperature thresholds for leaf damage from two extreme freeze events (2018 and 2021) near the northern range limit of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) in southeastern North America

Extreme winter temperatures govern the northern range limit of black mangroves ( Avicennia germinans ) in southeastern North America. There is a pressing need for studies that advance our understanding of how extreme cold temperature events affect mangroves near their range limits. However, such events are infrequent and challenging to study at regional scales. Here, we compared the damage to mangroves from extreme freeze events in 2018 and 2021, using local data from sites in USA (Florida, Louisiana, and Texas) and northeastern Mexico (Tamaulipas). In 2018, mangrove damage was concentrated in Louisiana and the upper Texas coast, where minimum temperatures ranged from -4 °C to -7 °C. In 2021, damage from a more severe freeze event was concentrated along the central to northern coasts of Texas, where minimum temperatures ranged from -4 °C to -10 °C. We used regional temperature and vegetation data from these events to quantify temperature thresholds for A. germinans leaf damage. Our results indicate that A. germinans leaf damage is likely to occur when temperatures are between -4 °C and -6 °C. These findings help refine temperature thresholds for A. germinans leaf damage and advance understanding of the effects of extreme freeze events on mangrove range expansion. This information is valuable for anticipating future range dynamics in a warming world.

Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2018

Standard Operating Procedure 1.2.14 Wadeable Stream Reach Selection and Location of Sampling Points—Version 1.0

The following standard operating procedure (SOP) outlines the procedure for selecting stream reaches to be used in Monitoring Wadeable Stream Habitat Conditions in Southeast Coast Network Parks: Protocol Narrative (McDonald et al. 2018a). The techniques and procedures outlined in this SOP are based on methods used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 2013), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) (Harrelson et al. 1994), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS; (Fitzpatrick et al. 1998). Procedures have been customized for use in streams draining the Piedmont and Coastal Plain parks in the Southeast Coast Network.

Southeast Coast Network Standard Operating Procedu↗
USGS2003

Preparing for climate change: The potential consequences of climate variability and change

Over the past decades, scientific research has greatly advanced the knowledge and understanding of global environmental change. Research supported by the U. S. Global Change Research Programme (USGCRP) and research and assessment results by international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), and the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme (IGBP) have demonstrated that human activities exert powerful environmental influences on global, regional, and local scales. Recent findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1997) indicate that human activities are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (NO x ), methane (CH 4 ), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS), partially halogenated fluorocarbons, and ozone (O 3 ), which alter radiative balances, and tend to warm the Earth’s surface. These changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols constitute key factors in global and regional changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables, resulting in local and regional changes in soil moisture, an increase in global mean sea level, and prospects for more severe extreme high temperature events, floods, and droughts in some places. In the United States and elsewhere in the industrialized world, energy use contributes to global warming more than any other human activity. This is because most of our energy comes from carbon-based fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas). Fossil fuels provide energy for a variety of purposes, including transporting goods and people, manufacturing products, heating and cooling buildings, lighting spaces, and cooking foods. Each year U.S. energy use releases more than 5.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Present global CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are 130% of pre-industrial levels (Figure 1). The global surface temperature last century is warmer than any other century in the past millennium. The global average temperature has increased by about 1 o F over the last century and is projected to rise another 2-6.5 o F by year 2100 (Figure 2). The last two decades have been the warmest last century. Average global sea level has risen about 4 to 10 inches in the last hundred years, and is projected to rise another 6-38 inches by year 2100. Mid- and low- latitude mountain glaciers have retreated world-wide last century. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, it is expected that an increase in rainfall amount and consequent increase in river flooding will occur. Recent floods in the Gulf Coast areas (1993, 1997) are examples of such events, and perhaps indicate the high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. Because of its unique location adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Coast region of the United States is particularly vulnerable to various environmental alterations resulting from climate change.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗
USGS2010

Temperature trends and preservation rates in the Deep Tuscaloosa Formation, Judge Digby Field, Louisiana

Judge Digby Field in Pointe Coupe Parish, Louisiana, exhibits some of the highest cumulative natural gas production from the lower Tuscaloosa Formation (Upper Cretaceous) in the Gulf Coast. The average production depth in Judge Digby Field is approximately 22,000 ft. The 400°F temperatures typically encountered at depth in Judge Digby Field are anomalously low when compared to temperature trends extrapolated to similar depths regionally. At this depth, the minimum and maximum temperatures for all servoirs in Gulf Coast producing gas fields are 330 and 550°F, respectively; the average temperature is 430°F. The relatively depressed geothermal gradients in Judge Digby Field may be due to high sediment preservation rates, which may have delayed the thermal equilibration of the sediment package with respect to the surrounding rock. Analyzing burial history and thermal maturation indicates that the deep Tuscaloosa trend in Judge Digby Field is currently in the gas generation window. Using temperature trends as an exploration tool may have important implications for undiscovered hydrocarbons at greater depths in currently producing reservoirs, and for settings that are geologically analogous to Judge Digby Field.

Louisiana↗
USGS2014

Residual shear strength variability as a primary control on movement of landslides reactivated by earthquake-induced ground motion: Implications for coastal Oregon, U.S.

Most large seismogenic landslides are reactivations of preexisting landslides with basal shear zones in the residual strength condition. Residual shear strength often varies during rapid displacement, but the response of residual shear zones to seismic loading is largely unknown. We used a ring shear apparatus to perform simulated seismic loading tests, constant displacement rate tests, and tests during which shear stress was gradually varied on specimens from two landslides to improve understanding of coseismic landslide reactivation and to identify shear strength models valid for slow gravitational failure through rapid coseismic failure. The landslides we studied represent many along the Oregon, U.S., coast. Seismic loading tests resulted in (1) catastrophic failure involving unbounded displacement when stresses represented those for the existing landslides and (2) limited to unbounded displacement when stresses represented those for hypothetical dormant landslides, suggesting that coseismic landslide reactivation may be significant during future great earthquakes occurring near the Oregon Coast. Constant displacement rate tests indicated that shear strength decreased exponentially during the first few decimeters of displacement but increased logarithmically with increasing displacement rate when sheared at 0.001 cm s −1 or greater. Dynamic shear resistance estimated from shear strength models correlated well with stresses observed during seismic loading tests, indicating that displacement rate and amount primarily controlled failure characteristics. We developed a stress-based approach to estimate coseismic landslide displacement that utilizes the variable shear strength model. The approach produced results that compared favorably to observations made during seismic loading tests, indicating its utility for application to landslides.

Oregon↗
USGS2016

Forcing and variability of nonstationary rip currents

Surface wave transformation and the resulting nearshore circulation along a section of coast with strong alongshore bathymetric gradients outside the surf zone are modeled for a consecutive 4 week time period. The modeled hydrodynamics are compared to in situ measurements of waves and currents collected during the Nearshore Canyon Experiment and indicate that for the entire range of observed conditions, the model performance is similar to other studies along this stretch of coast. Strong alongshore wave height gradients generate rip currents that are observed by remote sensing data and predicted qualitatively well by the numerical model. Previous studies at this site have used idealized scenarios to link the rip current locations to undulations in the offshore bathymetry but do not explain the dichotomy between permanent offshore bathymetric features and intermittent rip current development. Model results from the month‐long simulation are used to track the formation and location of rip currents using hourly statistics, and results show that the direction of the incoming wave energy strongly controls whether rip currents form. In particular, most of the offshore wave spectra were bimodal and we find that the ratio of energy contained in each mode dictates rip current development, and the alongshore rip current position is controlled by the incident wave period. Additionally, model simulations performed with and without updating the nearshore morphology yield no significant change in the accuracy of the predicted surf zone hydrodyanmics indicating that the large‐scale offshore features (e.g., submarine canyon) predominately control the nearshore wave‐circulation system.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2017

Reexamination of the magnitudes for the 1906 and 1922 Chilean earthquakes using Japanese tsunami amplitudes: Implications for source depth constraints

Far-field tsunami records from the Japanese tide gauge network allow the reexamination of the moment magnitudes ( M w ) for the 1906 and 1922 Chilean earthquakes, which to date rely on limited information mainly from seismological observations alone. Tide gauges along the Japanese coast provide extensive records of tsunamis triggered by six great ( M w >8) Chilean earthquakes with instrumentally determined moment magnitudes. These tsunami records are used to explore the dependence of tsunami amplitudes in Japan on the parent earthquake magnitude of Chilean origin. Using the resulting regression parameters together with tide gauge amplitudes measured in Japan we estimate apparent moment magnitudes of M w 8.0–8.2 and M w 8.5–8.6 for the 1906 central and 1922 north-central Chile earthquakes. The large discrepancy of the 1906 magnitude estimated from the tsunami observed in Japan as compared with those previously determined from seismic waves ( M s 8.4) suggests a deeper than average source with reduced tsunami excitation. A deep dislocation along the Chilean megathrust would favor uplift of the coast rather than beneath the sea, giving rise to a smaller tsunami and producing effects consistent with those observed in 1906. The 1922 magnitude inferred from far-field tsunami amplitudes appear to better explain the large extent of damage and the destructive tsunami that were locally observed following the earthquake than the lower seismic magnitudes ( M s 8.3) that were likely affected by the well-known saturation effects. Thus, a repeat of the large 1922 earthquake poses seismic and tsunami hazards in a region identified as a mature seismic gap.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2017

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21 st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

California↗
USGS2017

Influence of atmospheric rivers on vegetation productivity and fire patterns in the southwestern U.S.

In the southwestern U.S., the meteorological phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) has gained increasing attention due to its strong connections to floods, snowpacks, and water supplies in the West Coast states. Relatively less is known about the ecological implications of ARs, particularly in the interior Southwest, where AR storms are less common. To address this gap, we compared a chronology of AR landfalls on the west coast between 1989 and 2011 and between 25°N and 42.5°N to annual metrics of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an indicator of vegetation productivity) and daily resolution precipitation data to assess influences of AR-fed winter precipitation on vegetation productivity across the southwestern U.S. We mapped correlations between winter AR precipitation during landfalling ARs and (1) annual maximum NDVI and (2) area burned by large wildfires summarized by ecoregion during the same year as the landfalls and during the following year. Interannual variations of AR precipitation strongly influenced both NDVI and area burned by wildfire in some dryland ecoregions. The influence of ARs on dryland vegetation varied significantly depending on the latitude of landfall, with those ARs making landfall below 35°N latitude more strongly influencing these systems, and with effects observed as far as 1300 km from the landfall location. As climatologists' understanding of the synoptic patterns associated with the occurrence of ARs continues to evolve, an increased understanding of how AR landfalls, in aggregate, influence vegetation productivity and associated wildfire activity in dryland ecosystems may provide opportunities to better predict ecological responses to climate and climate change.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2019

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short‐term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0–3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander ( Ambystoma cingulatum ). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non‐overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum , that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane‐prone regions.

Florida↗
USGS2017

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semi-arid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

Ecological Monographs↗