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At least 1,549 records · Page 86Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Seventy questions of importance to the conservation of the North Central grasslands of the United States in a changing climate

Successful conservation of ecosystems in a changing climate requires actionable research that directly supports the rethinking and revising of management approaches to address changing risks and opportunities. As an important first step toward actionable research, we reviewed and synthesized grassland management-related documents to identify broadly shared questions that, if answered, would help to support collective conservation of the grasslands in the northern Great Plains of the United States in a changing climate. A Management Priorities Working Group reviewed 183 grassland-relevant management documents and identified 70 questions. Feedback was iteratively provided by a Climate and Ecology Working Group, an Advisory Committee, and representatives from grassland management agencies and organizations. The identified questions generally fall under 15 topics: land conversion; restoration; disturbance regimes; woody encroachment; herbaceous invasives; grazing; water quality, quantity, and availability; animal species; private land; public understanding; legal and policy changes; economic incentives; coordination across management entities; accessibility of science and tools; and novel ways of thinking. These questions can inform a research agenda for researchers looking to conduct actionable science in the Great Plains grassland ecosystems. Both the approach and the questions presented here can also be adapted and applied in other regions and ecosystems.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota,↗
USGS2025

Exposure, sensitivity, or adaptive capacity? Reviewing assessments that use only two of three elements of climate change vulnerability

As climate change accelerates, understanding which species are most vulnerable and why they are vulnerable will be vital to inform conservation action. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are tools to assess species' responses to climate change, detect drivers of vulnerability, and inform conservation planning. CCVAs are commonly composed of three elements: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Incorporating all three elements can be challenging, and including only two of the three elements may be a more feasible approach in many systems. Although two-element CCVA approaches have become more common, their utility and procedures remain poorly documented. We conducted a literature review to explore the scope, methods, and rationale of CCVAs that use a two-element approach to assess vertebrate vulnerability. Despite the potential to expand CCVAs into understudied systems, two-element assessments had similar geographic and taxonomic biases as those previously detected in CCVAs in general. Methods varied, yet we found that variables used in two-element studies could be condensed into standardized categories to enhance comparability. Finally, limitations in data availability and computational resources were common rationales for using a two-element approach. By clarifying the purposes, opportunities, and limitations of two-element assessment, this review can aid in selecting appropriate methods for CCVAs.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2022

Searching for refuge: A framework for identifying site factors conferring resistance to climate-driven vegetation change

Climate change is occurring at accelerated rates in high latitude regions such as Alaska, causing alterations in woody plant growth and associated ecosystem patterns and processes. Our aim is to assess the magnitude and speed that climate-induced changes in woody plant distribution and volume may be reduced and/or slowed by relatively static landscape features like physical characteristics (e.g. depth to gravel, mineral cover percent and slope degree) and/or edaphic properties (e.g. soil organic matter, soil pH and site wetness rating) that resist climate-vegetation responses

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Distribution of invasive and native riparian woody plants across the western USA in relation to climate, river flow, floodplain geometry and patterns of introduction

Management of riparian plant invasions across the landscape requires understanding the combined influence of climate, hydrology, geologic constraints and patterns of introduction. We measured abundance of nine riparian woody taxa at 456 stream gages across the western USA. We constructed conditional inference recursive binary partitioning models to discriminate the influence of eleven environmental variables on plant occurrence and abundance, focusing on the two most abundant non-native taxa, Tamarix spp. and Elaeagnus angustifolia , and their native competitor Populus deltoides . River reaches in this study were distributed along a composite gradient from cooler, wetter higher-elevation reaches with higher stream power and earlier snowmelt flood peaks to warmer, drier lower-elevation reaches with lower power and later peaks. Plant distributions were strongly related to climate, hydrologic and geomorphic factors, and introduction history. The strongest associations were with temperature and then precipitation. Among hydrologic and geomorphic variables, stream power, peak flow timing and 10-yr flood magnitude had stronger associations than did peak flow predictability, low-flow magnitude, mean annual flow and channel confinement. Nearby intentional planting of Elaeagnus was the best predictor of its occurrence, but planting of Tamarix was rare. Higher temperatures were associated with greater abundance of Tamarix relative to P. deltoides , and greater abundance of P. deltoides relative to Elaeagnus. Populus deltoides abundance was more strongly related to peak flow timing than was that of Elaeagnus or Tamarix . Higher stream power and larger 10-yr floods were associated with greater abundance of P. deltoides and Tamarix relative to Elaeagnus . Therefore, increases in temperature could increase abundance of Tamarix and decrease that of Elaeagnus relative to P. deltoides , changes in peak flow timing caused by climate change or dam operations could increase abundance of both invasive taxa, and dam-induced reductions in flood peaks could increase abundance of Elaeagnus relative to Tamarix and P. deltoides .

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗
USGS2025

Does habitat or climate change drive species range shifts?

A primary prediction of climate change ecology is that species will track their climate niche poleward and upslope. However, studies have shown species responding in surprising ways. In this study, we aim to understand the impact of global change on species ranges by considering both climate and habitat changes. Using occupancy analysis of acoustic survey data in the mountains of the northeastern United States, we tested specific predictions of range responses to warming (shifting upslope), precipitation change (shifting downslope), and forest composition change (shifting downslope). We found that American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus , key nodes in northern North American food webs, are not tracking increasing temperatures upslope, despite substantial warming in recent decades. Structural equation modeling indicates that red squirrel abundance is primarily influenced by red-spruce forest cover, which has shifted downslope with recovery from historical logging and acid deposition. Accounting for the multiple dimensions of global change will enable better predictions and more effective conservation strategies.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2013

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire).

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2024

Assessing the risk of climate maladaptation for Canadian polar bears

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, threatening the persistence of many Arctic species. It is uncertain if Arctic wildlife will have sufficient time to adapt to such rapidly warming environments. We used genetic forecasting to measure the risk of maladaptation to warming temperatures and sea ice loss in polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) sampled across the Canadian Arctic. We found evidence for local adaptation to sea ice conditions and temperature. Forecasting of genome-environment mismatches for predicted climate scenarios suggested that polar bears in the Canadian high Arctic had the greatest risk of becoming maladapted to climate warming. While Canadian high Arctic bears may be the most likely to become maladapted, all polar bears face potentially negative outcomes to climate change. Given the importance of the sea ice habitat to polar bears, we expect that maladaptation to future warming is already widespread across Canada.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2024

The relationship between maturation size and maximum tree size from tropical to boreal climates

The fundamental trade-off between current and future reproduction has long been considered to result in a tendency for species that can grow large to begin reproduction at a proportionately larger size. Due to the prolonged time required to reach maturity, estimates of tree maturation size remain unavailable and we lack a global view on the generality and the shape of this trade-off. Using seed production from five continents, we estimate tree maturation sizes for 486 tree pecies spanning tropical to boreal climates. Results show that a species’ maturation size increases with maximum size, but in a non-proportional way: the largest species begin reproduction at smaller sizes than would be expected if maturation size were simply proportional to maximum size. Furthermore, the decrease in relative maturation size is steepest in cold climates. These findings on maturation size drivers are key to accurately represent forests’ responses to disturbance and climate change.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2017

Climate drives adaptive genetic responses associated with survival in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata)

A genecological approach was used to explore genetic variation for survival in Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush). Artemisia tridentata is a widespread and foundational shrub species in western North America. This species has become extremely fragmented, to the detriment of dependent wildlife, and efforts to restore it are now a land management priority. Common-garden experiments were established at three sites with seedlings from 55 source-populations. Populations included each of the three predominant subspecies, and cytotype variations. Survival was monitored for 5 years to assess differences in survival between gardens and populations. We found evidence of adaptive genetic variation for survival. Survival within gardens differed by source-population and a substantial proportion of this variation was explained by seed climate of origin. Plants from areas with the coldest winters had the highest levels of survival, while populations from warmer and drier sites had the lowest levels of survival. Survival was lowest, 36%, in the garden that was prone to the lowest minimum temperatures. These results suggest the importance of climatic driven genetic differences and their effect on survival. Understanding how genetic variation is arrayed across the landscape, and its association with climate can greatly enhance the success of restoration and conservation.

Evolutionary Applications↗
USGS2022

Subspecies differentiation and range-wide genetic structure are driven by climate in the California gnatcatcher, a flagship species for coastal sage scrub conservation

Understanding genetic structure and diversity within species can uncover associations with environmental and geographic attributes that highlight adaptive potential and inform conservation and management. The California gnatcatcher, Polioptila californica , is a small songbird found in desert and coastal scrub habitats from the southern end of Baja California Sur to Ventura County, California. Lack of congruence among morphological subspecies hypotheses and lack of measurable genetic structure found in a few genetic markers led to questions about the validity of subspecies within P. californica and the listing status of the coastal California gnatcatcher, P. c. californica . As a U.S. federally threatened subspecies, P. c. californica is recognized as a flagship for coastal sage scrub conservation throughout southern California. We used restriction site-associated DNA sequencing to develop a genomic dataset for the California gnatcatcher. We sampled throughout the species' range, examined genetic structure, gene–environment associations, and demographic history, and tested for concordance between genetic structure and morphological subspecies groups. Our data support two distinct genetic groups with evidence of restricted movement and gene flow near the U.S.- Mexico international border. We found that climate-associated outlier loci were more strongly differentiated than climate neutral loci, suggesting that local climate adaptation may have helped to drive differentiation after Holocene range expansions. Patterns of habitat loss and fragmentation are also concordant with genetic substructure throughout the southern California portion of the range. Finally, our genetic data supported the morphologically defined P. c. californica as a distinct group, but there was little evidence of genetic differentiation among other previously hypothesized subspecies in Baja California. Our data suggest that retaining and restoring connectivity, and protecting populations, particularly at the northern range edge, could help preserve existing adaptive potential to allow for future range expansion and long-term persistence of the California gnatcatcher.

California↗
USGS2025

Declining marine survival of steelhead trout linked to climate and ecosystem change

Species with complex life cycles, such as anadromous fish that perform spawning migrations between freshwater and the ocean, may be particularly sensitive to global change because freshwater and marine habitats experience distinct shifts in climate and ecosystem dynamics. Abundances of wild steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) have declined across most of their range over the past 40–50 years. We examined whether declines in steelhead survival can be linked to changing climate conditions and species interactions. A novel hierarchical integrated population model that accounts for the species' complex life history was fitted to data from multiple wild steelhead populations on the Washington coast, U.S.A. The model estimates recruitment residuals and kelt survival rates as time-varying processes, which reflect annual variation in survival before and after first maturation. We found that survival rates of immature steelhead (recruits) and adult steelhead (kelts) have declined over time and that survival trends across populations were strongly associated with climate and ecosystem change, specifically summer sea surface temperature and pink salmon abundance in the North Pacific Ocean, the NPGO index and river flows. Including these drivers in the model reduced unexplained annual variation in shared recruitment and kelt survival anomalies and largely accounted for their negative long-term trends. Our findings provide evidence that rising temperatures and increased interspecific competition at sea have contributed to declines in steelhead survival over the last five decades. Considering projected warming and high pink salmon abundances in the ocean, steelhead will likely continue to experience low marine survival rates.

Washington↗
USGS2022

Resist-accept-direct (RAD) considerations for climate change adaptation in fisheries: The Wisconsin experience

Decision-makers in inland fisheries management must balance ecologically and socially palatable objectives for ecosystem services within financial or physical constraints. Climate change has transformed the potential range of ecosystem services available. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework offers a foundation for responding to climate-induced ecosystem modification; however, ecosystem trajectories and current practices must be understood to improve future decisions. Using Wisconsin's diverse inland fisheries as a case study, management strategies for recreational and subsistence fisheries in response to climate change were reviewed within the RAD framework. Current strategies largely focus on resist actions, while future strategies may need to shift toward accept or direct actions. A participatory adaptive management framework and co-production of policies between state and tribal agencies could prioritise lakes for appropriate management action, with the goal of providing a landscape of diverse fishing opportunities. This knowledge co-production represents a process of social learning requiring substantial investments of funding and time.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2015

Relative importance of phosphorus, invasive mussels and climate for patterns in chlorophyll a and primary production in Lakes Michigan and Huron

1. Lakes Michigan and Huron, which are undergoing oligotrophication after reduction of phosphorus loading, invasion by dreissenid mussels and variation in climate, provide an opportunity to conduct large-scale evaluation of the relative importance of these changes for lake productivity. We used remote sensing, field data and an information-theoretic approach to identify factors that showed statistical relationships with observed changes in chlorophyll a (chla) and primary production (PP). 2. Spring phosphorus (TP), annual mean chla and PP have all declined significantly in both lakes since the late 1990s. Additionally, monthly mean values of chla have decreased in many but not all months, indicating altered seasonal patterns. The most striking change has been the decrease in chla concentration during the spring bloom. 3. Mean chlorophyll a concentration was 17% higher in Lake Michigan than in Lake Huron, and total production for 2008 in Lake Michigan (9.5 tg year 1 ) was 10% greater than in Lake Huron (7.8 tg year 1 ), even though Lake Michigan is slightly smaller (by 3%) than Lake Huron. Differences between the lakes in the early 1970s evidently persisted to 2008. 4. Invasive mussels influenced temporal trends in spring chla and annual primary production. However, TP had a greater effect on chla and primary production than did the mussels, and TP varied independently from them. Two climatic variables (precipitation and air temperature in the basins) influenced annual chla and annual PP, while the extent of ice cover influenced TP but not chla or primary production. Our results demonstrate that observed temporal patterns in chla and PP are the result of complex interactions of P, climate and invasive mussels.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2020

Effects of increased temperature on arctic slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus is mediated by food availability: Implications for climate change

Lakes are vulnerable to climate change, and warming rates in the Arctic are faster than anywhere on Earth. Fishes are sensitive to changing temperatures, which directly control physiological processes. Food availability should partly dictate responses to climate change because energetic demands change with temperature, but few studies have simultaneously examined temperature and food availability. We used a fully factorial experiment to test effects of food availability and temperature (7.6, 12.7, and 17.4°C; 50 days) on growth, consumption, respiration, and excretion, and effects of temperature (12 and 19.3°C; 27 days) on habitat use and growth of a common, but understudied, mid-level consumer, slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus , in arctic lakes. We also used bioenergetics modelling to predict consumptive demand under future warming scenarios. Growth rates were 3.4× higher at 12.7°C in high food compared to low food treatments, but the magnitude of differences depended on temperature. Within low food treatments, there was no statistical difference in growth rates among temperatures, suggesting food limitation. Consumption, respiration, and nitrogen excretion increased with temperature independent of food availability. Lower growth rates coincided with lower phosphorus excretion at the highest temperature, suggesting that fish selectively retained phosphorus at high temperatures and low food. In habitat choice experiments, fish were more likely to use the 12°C side of the tank, closely matching their optimal temperature. We predicted a 9% increase in consumption is required to maintain observed growth under a 4°C warming scenario. These results highlight considering changes in food resources and other associated indirect effects (e.g. excretion) that accompany changing temperatures with climate change. Depending on how food webs respond to warming, fish may cope with predicted warming if density-dependent feedback maintains population sizes.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin

Impending changes in climate will interact with other stressors to threaten aquatic ecosystems and their biota. Native Colorado River cutthroat trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus ) are now relegated to 309 isolated high-elevation ( > 1700 m) headwater stream fragments in the Upper Colorado River Basin, owing to past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss. Predicted changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and resulting changes in stochastic physical disturbances (i.e., wildfire, debris flow, and channel drying and freezing) could further threaten the remaining CRCT populations. We developed an empirical model to predict stream temperatures at the fragment scale from downscaled climate projections along with geomorphic and landscape variables. We coupled these spatially explicit predictions of stream temperature with a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates stochastic risks from fragmentation to project persistence of CRCT populations across the upper Colorado River basin to 2040 and 2080. Overall, none of the populations are at risk from acute mortality resulting from high temperatures during the warmest summer period. In contrast, only 37% of populations have a greater than or equal to 90% chance of persistence for 70 years (similar to the typical benchmark for conservation), primarily owing to fragmentation. Populations in short stream fragments < 7 km long, and those at the lowest elevations, are at the highest risk of extirpation. Therefore, interactions of stochastic disturbances with fragmentation are projected to be greater threats than warming for CRCT populations. The reason for this paradox is that past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss have restricted most CRCT populations to high-elevation stream fragments that are buffered from the potential consequences of warming, but at risk of extirpation from stochastic events. The greatest conservation need is for management to increase fragment lengths to forestall these risks.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2013

Landscape influences on climate-related lake shrinkage at high latitudes

Climate-related declines in lake area have been identified across circumpolar regions and have been characterized by substantial spatial heterogeneity. An improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying lake area trends is necessary to predict where change is most likely to occur and to identify implications for high latitude reservoirs of carbon. Here, using a population of ca. 2300 lakes with statistically significant increasing and decreasing lake area trends spanning longitudinal and latitudinal gradients of ca. 1000 km in Alaska, we present evidence for a mechanism of lake area decline that involves the loss of surface water to groundwater systems. We show that lakes with significant declines in lake area were more likely to be located: (1) in burned areas; (2) on coarser, well-drained soils; and (3) farther from rivers compared to lakes that were increasing. These results indicate that postfire processes such as permafrost degradation, which also results from a warming climate, may promote lake drainage, particularly in coarse-textured soils and farther from rivers where overland flooding is less likely and downslope flow paths and negative hydraulic gradients between surface water and groundwater systems are more common. Movement of surface water to groundwater systems may lead to a deepening of subsurface flow paths and longer hydraulic residence time which has been linked to increased soil respiration and CO 2 release to the atmosphere. By quantifying relationships between statewide coarse resolution maps of landscape characteristics and spatially heterogeneous responses of lakes to environmental change, we provide a means to identify at-risk lakes and landscapes and plan for a changing climate.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change

We combine large observed data sets and dynamically downscaled climate data to explore historic and future (2050–2069) stream temperature changes over the topographically diverse Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (elevation range = 824–4017 m). We link future stream temperatures with fish growth models to investigate how changing thermal regimes could influence the future distribution and persistence of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) and competing invasive species. We find that stream temperatures during the recent decade (2000–2009) surpass the anomalously warm period of the 1930s. Climate simulations indicate air temperatures will warm by 1 °C to >3 °C over the Greater Yellowstone by mid-21st century, resulting in concomitant increases in 2050–2069 peak stream temperatures and protracted periods of warming from May to September (MJJAS). Projected changes in thermal regimes during the MJJAS growing season modify the trajectories of daily growth rates at all elevations with pronounced growth during early and late summer. For high-elevation populations, we find considerable increases in fish body mass attributable both to warming of cold-water temperatures and to extended growing seasons. During peak July to August warming, mid-21st century temperatures will cause periods of increased thermal stress, rendering some low-elevation streams less suitable for YCT. The majority (80%) of sites currently inhabited by YCT, however, display minimal loss (<10%) or positive changes in total body mass by midcentury; we attribute this response to the fact that many low-elevation populations of YCT have already been extirpated by historical changes in land use and invasions of non-native species. Our results further suggest that benefits to YCT populations due to warmer stream temperatures at currently cold sites could be offset by the interspecific effects of corresponding growth of sympatric, non-native species, underscoring the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies that reduce limiting factors such as non-native species and habitat degradation.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2014

Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

Cities experience elevated temperature, CO 2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa , to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

North Carolina↗