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Baseline monitoring of the western Arctic Ocean estimates 20% of the Canadian Basin surface waters are undersaturated with respect to aragonite

Marine surface waters are being acidified due to uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, resulting in surface ocean areas of undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, including aragonite. In the Arctic Ocean, acidification is expected to occur at an accelerated rate with respect to the global oceans, but a paucity of baseline data has limited our understanding of the extent of Arctic undersaturation and of regional variations in rates and causes. The lack of data has also hindered refinement of models aimed at projecting future trends of ocean acidification. Here, based on more than 34,000 data records collected in 2010 and 2011, we establish a baseline of inorganic carbon data (pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and aragonite saturation index) for the western Arctic Ocean. This data set documents aragonite undersaturation in ~20% of the surface waters of the combined Canada and Makarov basins, an area characterized by recent acceleration of sea ice loss. Conservative tracer studies using stable oxygen isotopic data from 307 sites show that while the entire surface of this area receives abundant freshwater from meteoric sources, freshwater from sea ice melt is most closely linked to the areas of carbonate mineral undersaturation. These data link the Arctic Ocean’s largest area of aragonite undersaturation to sea ice melt and atmospheric CO 2 absorption in areas of low buffering capacity. Some relatively supersaturated areas can be linked to localized biological activity. Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater.

PLoS ONE↗

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units, and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories.

California↗

Circumpolar patterns of Arctic freshwater fish biodiversity: A baseline for monitoring

Climate change, biological invasions, and anthropogenic disturbance pose a threat to the biodiversity and function of Arctic freshwater ecosystems. Understanding potential changes in fish species distribution and richness is necessary, given the great importance of fish to the function of freshwater ecosystems and as a resource to humans. However, information gaps limit large-scale studies and our ability to determine patterns and trends in space and time. This study takes the first step in determining circumpolar patterns of fish species richness and composition, which provides a baseline to improve both monitoring and conservation of Arctic freshwater biodiversity. Information on species presence/absence was gathered from the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program's Freshwater Database and used to examine patterns of freshwater fish γ-, α-, and β-diversity across 234° of longitude in the Arctic. The metrics of diversity provided information on species richness and composition across hydrobasins, ecoregions, and Arctic zones. Circumpolar patterns of fish species biodiversity varied with latitude, isolation, and coarse ecoregion characteristics; patterns were consistent with historic and contemporary barriers to colonisation and environmental characteristics. Gamma-diversity was lower in the high Arctic compared to lower latitude zones, but α-diversity did not decrease with increasing latitude below 71°N, reflecting glacial history. Alpha-diversity was reduced to a single species, Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus , in ecoregions above 71°N, where γ-diversity was the lowest. Beta-diversity indicated little variation in the composition and richness of species across the High Arctic; at lower latitudes, ecoregions contained more species, although species composition turned over across large spatial extents. In an analysis of five ecoregions in the circumpolar Arctic, physical isolation, and ecoregion area and topography were identified as strong drivers of γ-, α-, and β-diversity. Physical isolation reduced the γ- and α-diversity, and changes in β-diversity between adjacent locations were due mainly to losses in species richness, rather than due to differences in species composition. Heterogeneity of habitats, environmental gradients, and geographic distance probably contributed to patterns of fish dissimilarity within and across ecoregions. This study presents the first analysis of large-scale patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity in the circumpolar Arctic. However, information gaps in space, time, and among taxonomic groups remain. Future inclusion of extensive archive and new data will allow future studies to test for changes and drivers of the observed patterns of biodiversity. This is important given the potential impacts of ongoing and accelerating climate change, land use, and biotic exchange on Arctic fish biodiversity.

Freshwater Biology↗

Application of adaptive cluster sampling to low-density populations of freshwater mussels

Freshwater mussels appear to be promising candidates for adaptive cluster sampling because they are benthic macroinvertebrates that cluster spatially and are frequently found at low densities. We applied adaptive cluster sampling to estimate density of freshwater mussels at 24 sites along the Cacapon River, WV, where a preliminary timed search indicated that mussels were present at low density. Adaptive cluster sampling increased yield of individual mussels and detection of uncommon species; however, it did not improve precision of density estimates. Because finding uncommon species, collecting individuals of those species, and estimating their densities are important conservation activities, additional research is warranted on application of adaptive cluster sampling to freshwater mussels. However, at this time we do not recommend routine application of adaptive cluster sampling to freshwater mussel populations. The ultimate, and currently unanswered, question is how to tell when adaptive cluster sampling should be used, i.e., when is a population sufficiently rare and clustered for adaptive cluster sampling to be efficient and practical? A cost-effective procedure needs to be developed to identify biological populations for which adaptive cluster sampling is appropriate.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics↗

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) surface-water model, version 2

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of water-level gages, interpolation models that generate daily water-level and water-depth data, and applications that compute derived hydrologic data across the freshwater part of the greater Everglades landscape. The U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science provides support for EDEN in order for EDEN to provide quality-assured monitoring data for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The EDEN surface-water model, version 2 (V2), interpolates water-level data from a network of 240 gages to generate gridded daily water-level surfaces for the freshwater domain of the Everglades. When these spatiotemporal continuous surfaces are combined with EDEN’s digital elevation model of ground surface, derived hydrologic data provide scientists and water managers working in the Everglades with data necessary to analyze ecological and biotic responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. Derived datasets include water depth, recession rates, days since last dry, water-surface slopes, and hydroperiod. The V2 model includes enhancements from the previous model (version 1; V1) to accommodate changes in the water-level gage network, adjustments to water-level data, improved understanding of the flow dynamics (particularly near canals), and installation of an elevation benchmark network. Enhancements to the V2 model included Expansion of the EDEN domain: The model domain was expanded to include a part of southern Big Cypress National Preserve and northwestern Everglades National Park upstream of the marsh mangrove wetlands, thus completing the coastal connection along the southwestern boundary of the model; and Development of subdomain models: To account for insufficient water-control structure gage data at some subbasin boundaries, subdomain models were developed for five subdomains, and the resulting water-level surfaces were merged to generate the final water-level surface. Model performance statistics show a general improvement in the V2 model as compared to the V1 model. Overall, the root mean squared error (RMSE) was reduced by 2.42 centimeters (cm) to 4.68 cm. In Water Conservation Area 3A North and Water Conservation Area 3B, the RMSE was reduced by 10.88 and 9.15 cm, respectively. In addition to evaluating model performance statistics, 2-cm water-level maps were generated and evaluated for irregular contours that would indicate a potential problem either with data input or water-level estimates. Three applications of the EDEN-modeled water surfaces and other EDEN datasets are presented in the report to show how scientists and resource managers are using EDEN datasets to analyze biological and ecological responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. The biological responses of two important Everglades species, alligators and wading birds, to changes in hydrology are described. The effects of hydrology on fire dynamics in the Everglades are also discussed.

Florida↗

Local extinction and turnover rates at the edge and interior of species' ranges

One hypothesis for the maintenance of the edge of a species' range suggests that more central (and abundant) populations are relatively stable and edge populations are less stable with increased local extinction and turnover rates. To date, estimates of such metrics are equivocal due to design and analysis flaws. Apparent increased estimates of extinction and turnover rates at the edge of range, versus the interior, could be a function of decreased detection probabilities alone, and not of a biological process. We estimated extinction and turnover rates for species at the interiors and edges of their ranges using an approach which incorporates potential heterogeneity in species detection probabilities. Extinction rates were higher at the edges (0.17 ?? 0.03 []) than in the interiors (0.04 ?? 0.01), as was turnover. Without taking the probability of detection into account these differences would be artificially magnified. Knowledge of extinction and turnover rates is essential in furthering our understanding of range dynamics, and in directing conservation efforts. This study further illustrates the practical application of methods proposed recently for estimating extinction rates and other community dynamic parameters.

Conference Paper↗

Economical defence of resources structures territorial space use in a cooperative carnivore

Ecologists have long sought to understand space use and mechanisms underlying patterns observed in nature. We developed an optimality landscape and mechanistic territory model to understand mechanisms driving space use and compared model predictions to empirical reality. We demonstrate our approach using grey wolves ( Canis lupus ). In the model, simulated animals selected territories to economically acquire resources by selecting patches with greatest value, accounting for benefits, costs and trade-offs of defending and using space on the optimality landscape. Our approach successfully predicted and explained first- and second-order space use of wolves, including the population's distribution, territories of individual packs, and influences of prey density, competitor density, human-caused mortality risk and seasonality. It accomplished this using simple behavioural rules and limited data to inform the optimality landscape. Results contribute evidence that economical territory selection is a mechanistic bridge between space use and animal distribution on the landscape. This approach and resulting gains in knowledge enable predicting effects of a wide range of environmental conditions, contributing to both basic ecological understanding of natural systems and conservation. We expect this approach will demonstrate applicability across diverse habitats and species, and that its foundation can help continue to advance understanding of spatial behaviour.

Montana↗

Status assessment and conservation plan for the Western Burrowing Owl in the United States

The Western Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia hypugaea ) is a grassland specialist distributed throughout w. North America, primarily in open areas with short vegetation and bare ground in desert, grassland, and shrub-steppe environments. Burrowing Owls are dependent on the presence of fossorial mammals (primarily prairie dogs and ground squirrels), whose burrows are used for nesting and roosting. Burrowing Owls are protected by the Migratory Bird Treaty Act in the United States and Mexico. They are listed as Endangered in Canada and Threatened in Mexico. They are considered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to be a Bird of Conservation Concern at the national level, in three USFWS regions, and in nine Bird Conservation Regions . At the state level, Burrowing Owls are listed as Endangered in Minnesota, Threatened in Colorado, and as a Species of Concern in California, Montana, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

Biological Technical Publication↗

Synthesis of nest predation impacts of common ravens on sensitive avian species

Decades of mounting scientific evidence have revealed that common raven ( Corvus corax ; raven) population numbers have been increasing across nearly all regions of their geographic range in North America. Concomitantly, numerous native wildlife species have experienced elevated predation rates from ravens as populations have increased and expanded their range. Managers are concerned that increased raven predation of many threatened and endangered avian species in the U.S. and Canada during nesting periods may be hampering species recovery. We explored the literature to aggregate existing knowledge and evaluate the impacts of raven predation on nests and young of sensitive avian species. We used this information to develop a simple relative index for each species, the “Raven Impact Index” (RII). The RII incorporated the species demographic rates, abundance of ravens in relation to each sensitive species’ breeding range, and the degree of overlap between raven and sensitive prey distributions. We also developed a second relative descriptor describing our confidence in each RII, termed a “Impact Credibility Index (ICI).” The species ICI was based on the number of published studies and the type of evidence presented (e.g., circumstantial vs. direct). We found evidence of nest predation on 8 sensitive avian species and suspected nest predation on 1 additional species. All species shared aspects of nesting biology that suggested they would likely be susceptible to raven nest predation. The RII varied among prey species, with greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) having the highest relative impact values, followed by snowy plover ( Charadrius nivosus nivosus ), marbled murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ), and Gunnison sage-grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ). Our species RII is intended to inform management decisions regarding actions that mitigate the negative effects of raven predation of sensitive avian species. Although elevated nest predation may be of high conservation concern, it is important to recognize that all of the sensitive native prey species we established an RII for also face multiple conservation threats.

Human–Wildlife Interactions↗

Local extinction and turnover rates at the edge and interior of species' ranges

One hypothesis for the maintenance of the edge of a species' range suggests that more central (and abundant) populations are relatively stable and edge populations are less stable with increased local extinction and turnover rates. To date, estimates of such metrics are equivocal due to design and analysis flaws. Apparent increased estimates of extinction and turnover rates at the edge of range, versus the interior, could be a function of decreased detection probabilities alone, and not of a biological process. We estimated extinction and turnover rates for species at the interiors and edges of their ranges using an approach which incorporates potential heterogeneity in species detection probabilities. Extinction rates were higher at the edges (0.17 ' 0.03 [SE]) than in the interiors (0.04 ' 0.01), as was turnover. Without taking the probability of detection into account these differences would be artificially magnified. Knowledge of extinction and turnover rates is essential in furthering our understanding of range dynamics, and in directing conservation efforts. This study further illustrates the practical application of methods proposed recently for estimating extinction rates and other community dynamic parameters.

Annales Zoologici Fennici↗

Closing the gap between science and management of cold-water refuges in rivers and streams

Human activities and climate change threaten coldwater organisms in freshwater ecosystems by causing rivers and streams to warm, increasing the intensity and frequency of warm temperature events, and reducing thermal heterogeneity. Cold-water refuges are discrete patches of relatively cool water that are used by coldwater organisms for thermal relief and short-term survival. Globally, cohesive management approaches are needed that consider interlinked physical, biological, and social factors of cold-water refuges. We review current understanding of cold-water refuges, identify gaps between science and management, and evaluate policies aimed at protecting thermally sensitive species. Existing policies include designating cold-water habitats, restricting fishing during warm periods, and implementing threshold temperature standards or guidelines. However, these policies are rare and uncoordinated across spatial scales and often do not consider input from Indigenous peoples. We propose that cold-water refuges be managed as distinct operational landscape units, which provide a social and ecological context that is relevant at the watershed scale. These operational landscape units provide the foundation for an integrated framework that links science and management by (1) mapping and characterizing cold-water refuges to prioritize management and conservation actions, (2) leveraging existing and new policies, (3) improving coordination across jurisdictions, and (4) implementing adaptive management practices across scales. Our findings show that while there are many opportunities for scientific advancement, the current state of the sciences is sufficient to inform policy and management. Our proposed framework provides a path forward for managing and protecting cold-water refuges using existing and new policies to protect coldwater organisms in the face of global change.

Global Change Biology↗

Migration patterns and wintering distribution of common loons breeding in the Upper Midwest

Identification of geographic linkages among breeding, migratory and wintering common loon Gavia immer populations is needed to inform regional and national conservation planning efforts and compensation of loons lost during marine oil spill events. Satellite telemetry and archival geolocator tags were used to determine the migration patterns and wintering locations of breeding adult and young of the year juvenile common loons captured and marked on lakes in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Adult loons typically traveled from breeding lakes, often via larger staging lakes, to the Great Lakes (primarily Lake Michigan) and then on to wintering areas. Most radiomarked juvenile common loons utilized natal lakes or local lakes through mid-November. Subsequently, the first fall migration of juvenile loons was generally initiated later, and more direct and quicker to wintering areas relative to adults. Among adult (n = 103) and juvenile (n = 23) loons that completed fall migration, most wintered in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with smaller proportions wintering off the southern Atlantic Coast or impoundments in the southeastern United States. Spring migration of adults to breeding lakes was less prolonged than fall migration, with adult male loons tending to depart wintering areas earlier than adult females. Juvenile common loons migrated during their first spring from wintering sites in the GOM to summer in the Gulf of St Lawrence/Nova Scotia Coastal region. Juvenile mortality was largely linked to parasitic infection and emaciation; spring appeared to be a survival bottleneck among juvenile loons monitored in our study. Our results identify several areas where common loon conservation efforts could be directed to protect key habitats and minimize stressors during the non-breeding period.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Interface between black-footed ferret research and operational conservation

Questions and problems that emerged during operational conservation of black-footed ferrets ( Mustela nigripes ) have been addressed by a wide variety of studies. Early results from such studies often were communicated orally during meetings of recovery groups and in written form using memoranda, unpublished reports, and theses. Typically, implementation of results preceded their publication in widely distributed journals. Many of these studies eventually were published in journals, and we briefly summarize the contents of 8 volumes and special features of journals that have been dedicated to the biology of ferrets and issues in ferret recovery. This year marks the 30th anniversary of rediscovery of the black-footed ferret, and the 7 papers of the following Special Feature summarize data collected over nearly that span of time.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can be used. Traditional techniques generate pseudoabsence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, thresholdindependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (Dadj2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting that incorporating biological knowledge into pseudo-absence point generation is a powerful tool for species habitat assessments. Furthermore, given some a priori knowledge of the species-habitat relationship, ecologically based pseudo-absence points can be applied to any species, ecosystem, data resolution, and spatial extent. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN)—A decade of serving hydrologic information to scientists and resource managers

Introduction The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) provides scientists and resource managers with regional maps of daily water levels and depths in the freshwater part of the Greater Everglades landscape. The EDEN domain includes all or parts of five Water Conservation Areas, Big Cypress National Preserve, Pennsuco Wetlands, and Everglades National Park. Daily water-level maps are interpolated from water-level data at monitoring gages, and depth is estimated by using a digital elevation model of the land surface. Online datasets provide time series of daily water levels at gages and rainfall and evapotranspiration data ( https://sofia.usgs.gov/eden/ ). These datasets are used by scientists and resource managers to guide large-scale field operations, describe hydrologic changes, and support biological and ecological assessments that measure ecosystem response to the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. EDEN water-level data have been used in a variety of biological and ecological studies including (1) the health of American alligators as a function of water depth, (2) the variability of post-fire landscape dynamics in relation to water depth, (3) the habitat quality for wading birds with dynamic habitat selection, and (4) an evaluation of the habitat of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow.

Florida↗

Quantifying ecosystem states and state transitions of the Upper Mississippi River System using topological data analysis

Aquatic systems worldwide can exist in multiple ecosystem states (i.e., a recurring collection of biological and chemical attributes), and effectively characterizing multidimensionality will aid protection of desirable states and guide rehabilitation. The Upper Mississippi River System is composed of a large floodplain river system spanning 2200 km and multiple federal, state, tribal and local governmental units. Multiple ecosystem states may occur within the system, and characterization of the variables that define these ecosystem states could guide river rehabilitation. We coupled a long-term (30-year) highly dimensional water quality monitoring dataset with multiple topological data analysis (TDA) techniques to classify ecosystem states, identify state variables, and detect state transitions over 30 years in the river to guide conservation. Across the entire system, TDA identified five ecosystem states. State 1 was characterized by exceptionally clear, clean, and cold-water conditions typical of winter (i.e., a clear-water state); State 2 had the greatest range of environmental conditions and contained most the data (i.e., a status-quo state); and States 3, 4, and 5 had extremely high concentrations of suspended solids (i.e., turbid states, with State 5 as the most turbid). The TDA mapped clear patterns of the ecosystem states across several riverine navigation reaches and seasons that furthered ecological understanding. State variables were identified as suspended solids, chlorophyll a , and total phosphorus, which are also state variables of shallow lakes worldwide. The TDA change detection function showed short-term state transitions based on seasonality and episodic events, and provided evidence of gradual, long-term changes due to water quality improvements over three decades. These results can inform decision making and guide actions for regulatory and restoration agencies by assessing the status and trends of this important river and provide quantitative targets for state variables. The TDA change detection function may serve as a new tool for predicting the vulnerability to undesirable state transitions in this system and other ecosystems with sufficient data. Coupling ecosystem state concepts and TDA tools can be transferred to any ecosystem with large data to help classify states and understand their vulnerability to state transitions.

PLOS Computational Biology↗

Biology and ecology of Neosho Smallmouth Bass and the genetically distinct Ouachita lineage

We reviewed the published and gray literature associated with Neosho Smallmouth Bass and the genetically-distinct Ouachita lineage. Substantial inter-stream variation appears to occur among these populations, particularly related to age. The Neosho subspecies is more abundant, grows faster, and lives longer than the genetically-distinct Ouachita lineage. Recruitment is highly variable among streams for both populations and appears to be related to some undescribed aspects of hydrology but also likely reflect bias due to sampling gear. Information on annual and seasonal trends is lacking for the Neosho subspecies and the Ouachita lineages, particularly as related to the spawning period. Conservation efforts for these lineages might benefit from agencies partnering to achieve goals that extend beyond a particular agencies responsibilities and state boundaries. Recognition of spatial and temporal considerations, combined with a better understanding of the population dynamics as related to abundance, growth, mortality and reproduction would benefit the creation of more effective conservation and management strategies for genetically-distinct populations of Smallmouth Bass.

Book chapter↗

The story of the Penobscot River Ecology Mural: A 10-step process for scientists to create public art

Rivers are home to a wide variety of biota, including fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, freshwater mussels, aquatic insects, and microscopic organisms that fill unique niches to support broader ecosystem functions. While the general public may be aware of recreationally relevant biological life (e.g., fishes and insects to model flyfishing flies from), they may not be aware of more obscure yet important taxa. For example, freshwater mussels (Unionidae) improve water quality and clarity of rivers through filtration ( Vaughn, 2018), which is vital to riverine ecosystems. Despite this importance, lack of public knowledge about freshwater mussels is the second biggest challenge to their management ( Bouska et al., 2018). How do we best get the public to see value in underappreciated taxa to support their conservation? Public art installations can spread awareness about science effectively because they distill information for broader audiences, are eye-catching, and reach people through an emotional, aesthetic, and personal lens ( Thompson et al., 2023). While invertebrates are generally viewed by the public with fear and aversion ( Kellert, 1993) this can be ameliorated through interaction and learning, particularly for children ( Miller et al., 2025). Through cross-disciplinary collaboration between artists, scientists and the local community, we created the “Penobscot River Ecology Mural,” a scientifically informed artwork featuring underappreciated taxa like mussels and insects. In this article, we will elucidate the story of how we successfully made this piece through 10 steps, which provide a blueprint for future endeavors.

Maine↗