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Spatial variations in immediate greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions and resulting radiative forcing from wildfires in interior Alaska

Boreal fires can cool the climate; however, this conclusion came from individual fires and may not represent the whole story. We hypothesize that the climatic impact of boreal fires depends on local landscape heterogeneity such as burn severity, prefire vegetation type, and soil properties. To test this hypothesis, spatially explicit emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and their resulting radiative forcing are required as an important and necessary component towards a full assessment. In this study, we integrated remote sensing (Landsat and MODIS) and models (carbon consumption model, emission factors model, and radiative forcing model) to calculate the carbon consumption, GHGs and aerosol emissions, and their radiative forcing of 2001–2010 fires at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska. Total carbon consumption showed significant spatial variation, with a mean of 2,615 g C m −2 and a standard deviation of 2,589 g C m −2 . The carbon consumption led to different amounts of GHGs and aerosol emissions, ranging from 593.26 Tg (CO 2 ) to 0.16 Tg (N 2 O). When converted to equivalent CO 2 based on global warming potential metric, the maximum 20 years equivalent CO 2 was black carbon (713.77 Tg), and the lowest 20 years equivalent CO 2 was organic carbon (−583.13 Tg). The resulting radiative forcing also showed significant spatial variation: CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O can cause a 20-year mean radiative forcing of 7.41 W m −2 with a standard deviation of 2.87 W m −2 . This emission forcing heterogeneity indicates that different boreal fires have different climatic impacts. When considering the spatial variation of other forcings, such as surface shortwave forcing, we may conclude that some boreal fires, especially boreal deciduous fires, can warm the climate.

Alaska↗

Evidence for limited exchange of avian influenza viruses between seaducks and dabbling ducks at Alaska Peninsula coastal lagoons

Avian influenza virus (AIV) prevalence and sequence data were analyzed for Steller's eiders ( Polysticta stelleri ) to assess the role of this species in transporting virus genes between continents and maintaining a regional viral reservoir with sympatric northern pintails ( Anas acuta ). AIV prevalence was 0.2% at Izembek Lagoon and 3.9% at Nelson Lagoon for Steller's eiders and 11.2% for northern pintails at Izembek Lagoon. Phylogenetic analysis of 13 AIVs from Steller's eiders revealed that 4.9% of genes were of Eurasian origin. Seven subtypes were detected, including two also observed in northern pintails. No AIV strains were highly similar (> 99%) at all gene segments between species; however, highly similar individual genes were detected. The proportion of highly similar genes was greater within rather than between species. Steller's eiders likely transport AIV genes between continents through long-distance migratory movements. Differences in AIV prevalence, subtype distribution, and the proportion of highly similar genes suggest limited AIV exchange between Steller's eiders and northern pintails at Alaska Peninsula coastal lagoons during autumn.

Archives of Virology↗

Early goose arrival increases soil nitrogen availability more than an advancing spring in coastal western Alaska

An understudied aspect of climate change-induced phenological mismatch is its effect on ecosystem functioning, such as nitrogen (N) cycling. Migratory herbivore arrival time may alter N inputs and plant–herbivore feedbacks, whereas earlier springs are predicted to increase N cycling rates through warmer temperatures. However, the relative importance of these shifts in timing and how they interact to affect N cycling are largely unknown. We conducted a 3-year factorial experiment in coastal western Alaska that simulated different timings of Pacific black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) arrival (3 weeks early, typical, 3 weeks late, or no-grazing) and the growing season (ca. 3 weeks advanced and ambient) on adsorbed and mobile inorganic (NH 4 + –N, NO 3 − –N) and mobile organic N (amino acid) pools. Early grazing increased NH 4 + –N, NO 3 − –N, and amino acids by 103%, 119%, and 7%, respectively, whereas late grazing reduced adsorbed NH 4 + –N and NO 3 − –N by 16% and 17%, respectively. In comparison, the advanced growing season increased mobile NH 4 + –N by 26%. The arrival time by geese and the start of the season did not interact to influence soil N availability. While the onset of spring in our system is advancing at twice the rate of migratory goose arrival, earlier goose migration is likely to be more significant than the advances in springs in influencing soil N, although both early goose arrival and advanced springs are likely to increase N availability in the future. This increase in soil N resources can have a lasting impact on plant community composition and productivity in this N-limited ecosystem.

Coastal western Alaska↗

Uranium isotopes (234U/238U) in rivers of the Yukon Basin (Alaska and Canada) as an aid in identifying water sources, with implications for monitoring hydrologic change in arctic regions

The ability to detect hydrologic variation in large arctic river systems is of major importance in understanding and predicting effects of climate change in high-latitude environments. Monitoring uranium isotopes ( 234 U and 238 U) in river water of the Yukon River Basin of Alaska and northwestern Canada (2001–2005) has enhanced the ability to identify water sources to rivers, as well as detect flow changes that have occurred over the 5-year study. Uranium isotopic data for the Yukon River and major tributaries (the Porcupine and Tanana rivers) identify several sources that contribute to river flow, including: deep groundwater, seasonally frozen river-valley alluvium groundwater, and high-elevation glacial melt water. The main-stem Yukon River exhibits patterns of uranium isotopic variation at several locations that reflect input from ice melt and shallow groundwater in the spring, as well as a multi-year pattern of increased variability in timing and relative amount of water supplied from higher elevations within the basin. Results of this study demonstrate both the utility of uranium isotopes in revealing sources of water in large river systems and of incorporating uranium isotope analysis in long-term monitoring of arctic river systems that attempt to assess the effects of climate change.

Yukon Basin↗

Sensitivity analysis of lake mass balance in discontinuous permafrost: the example of disappearing Twelvemile Lake, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA)

Many lakes in northern high latitudes have undergone substantial changes in surface area over the last four decades, possibly as a result of climate warming. In the discontinuous permafrost of Yukon Flats, interior Alaska (USA), these changes have been non-uniform across adjacent watersheds, suggesting local controls on lake water budgets. Mechanisms that could explain the decreasing mass of one lake in Yukon Flats since the early 1980s, Twelvemile Lake, are identified via a scoping analysis that considers plausible changes in snowmelt mass and infiltration, permafrost distribution, and climate warming. Because predicted changes in evaporation (2 cmyr -1 ) are inadequate to explain the observed 17.5 cmyr -1 reduction in mass balance, other mechanisms are required. The most important potential mechanisms are found to involve: (1) changes in shallow, lateral groundwater flow to the lake possibly facilitated by vertical freeze-thaw migration of the permafrost table in gravel; (2) increased loss of lake water as downward groundwater flow through an open talik to a permeable subpermafrost flowpath; and (3) reduced snow meltwater inputs due to decreased snowpack mass and increased infiltration of snowmelt into, and subsequent evaporation from, fine-grained sediment mantling the permafrost-free lake basin.

Alaska↗

Rapid runoff via shallow throughflow and deeper preferential flow in a boreal catchment underlain by frozen silt (Alaska, USA)

In high-latitude catchments where permafrost is present, runoff dynamics are complicated by seasonal active-layer thaw, which may cause a change in the dominant flowpaths as water increasingly contacts mineral soils of low hydraulic conductivity. A 2-year study, conducted in an upland catchment in Alaska (USA) underlain by frozen, well-sorted eolian silt, examined changes in infiltration and runoff with thaw. It was hypothesized that rapid runoff would be maintained by flow through shallow soils during the early summer and deeper preferential flow later in the summer. Seasonal changes in soil moisture, infiltration, and runoff magnitude, location, and chemistry suggest that transport is rapid, even when soils are thawed to their maximum extent. Between June and September, a shift occurred in the location of runoff, consistent with subsurface preferential flow in steep and wet areas. Uranium isotopes suggest that late summer runoff erodes permafrost, indicating that substantial rapid flow may occur along the frozen boundary. Together, throughflow and deep preferential flow may limit upland boreal catchment water and solute storage, and subsequently biogeochemical cycling on seasonal to annual timescales. Deep preferential flow may be important for stream incision, network drainage development, and the release of ancient carbon to ecosystems

Alaska↗

Impacts of climate, lake size, and supra- and sub-permafrost groundwater flow on lake-talik evolution, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA)

In cold regions, hydrologic systems possess seasonal and perennial ice-free zones (taliks) within areas of permafrost that control and are enhanced by groundwater flow. Simulation of talik development that follows lake formation in watersheds modeled after those in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska (USA) provides insight on the coupled interaction between groundwater flow and ice distribution. The SUTRA groundwater simulator with freeze–thaw physics is used to examine the effect of climate, lake size, and lake–groundwater relations on talik formation. Considering a range of these factors, simulated times for a through-going sub-lake talik to form through 90 m of permafrost range from ∼200 to > 1,000 years (vertical thaw rates < 0.1–0.5 m yr −1 ). Seasonal temperature cycles along lake margins impact supra-permafrost flow and late-stage cryologic processes. Warmer climate accelerates complete permafrost thaw and enhances seasonal flow within the supra-permafrost layer. Prior to open talik formation, sub-lake permafrost thaw is dominated by heat conduction. When hydraulic conditions induce upward or downward flow between the lake and sub-permafrost aquifer, thaw rates are greatly increased. The complexity of ground-ice and water-flow interplay, together with anticipated warming in the arctic, underscores the utility of coupled groundwater-energy transport models in evaluating hydrologic systems impacted by permafrost.

Alaska↗

Hazard assessment of the Tidal Inlet landslide and potential subsequent tsunami, Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

An unstable rock slump, estimated at 5 to 10 × 10 6 m 3 , lies perched above the northern shore of Tidal Inlet in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. This landslide mass has the potential to rapidly move into Tidal Inlet and generate large, long-period-impulse tsunami waves. Field and photographic examination revealed that the landslide moved between 1892 and 1919 after the retreat of the Little Ice Age glaciers from Tidal Inlet in 1890. Global positioning system measurements over a 2-year period show that the perched mass is presently moving at 3–4 cm annually indicating the landslide remains unstable. Numerical simulations of landslide-generated waves suggest that in the western arm of Glacier Bay, wave amplitudes would be greatest near the mouth of Tidal Inlet and slightly decrease with water depth according to Green’s law. As a function of time, wave amplitude would be greatest within approximately 40 min of the landslide entering water, with significant wave activity continuing for potentially several hours.

Alaska↗

Range expansion of nonindigenous caribou in the Aleutianarchipelago of Alaska

Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) are nonindigenous to all but the eastern-most island of the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska. In 1958–1959, caribou were intentionally introduced to Adak Island in the central archipelago, and the population has at least tripled in recent years subsequent to the closure of a naval air facility. Although dispersal of caribou to adjacent islands has been suspected, no historical documentation has occurred to date. Herein, we report consistent detections of caribou sign on the adjacent island of Kagalaska over 2 summer field seasons (2010–2011), and visual detection of caribou on that island during the summer of 2011. Ecological impacts of caribou on Kagalaska are not strongly apparent at the present time and we do not know how many animals permanently occupy the island. However, establishment of a reproductively viable resident population on Kagalaska is worrisome and could set the stage for a step-wise invasion of additional nearby islands.

Alaska↗

Trophic plasticity and the invasion of a renowned piscivore: A diet synthesis of northern pike (Esox lucius) from the native and introduced ranges in Alaska, U.S.A.

The invasion of non-native fishes is a leading cause of extinction and imperilment of native freshwater fishes. Evidence suggests that introduced species with generalist diets have the potential for greatest impacts through competition and predation even though populations are often comprised of specialist individuals. The northern pike (Esox lucius), a predatory fish, has been widely introduced outside its native range for recreational fishing purposes, especially in western North America, and it has been implicated in declines and extirpations of native fishes. We synthesized over 2,900 individual northern pike diet records across 31 waterbodies from the native and introduced ranges in Alaska to quantify the extent of diet specialization and generalization relative to freshwater prey communities. To control for effects of ontogenetic diet shifts, we separately analyzed major size classes of northern pike and inferred and visualized trophic plasticity from Prey-Specific Abundance indices and ordination. Diet generalization was common in northern pike among waterbodies and usually consisted of individuals consuming macroinvertebrates. However, when available, individual northern pike diets showed specialization on fishes, amphibians, small mammals, and dragonflies. The reliance on macroinvertebrate prey by northern pike from small, isolated lakes in the native and invasive ranges suggests that dietary plasticity facilitates persistence of these predators in the absence of preferred fish prey. Broadly, this synthesis supports the hypothesis that trophic plasticity and diet generalization widely occur among invasive and native populations of northern pike which is likely to enhance the probability of introduction success, exacerbate their environmental impacts, and complicate management of this potentially invasive freshwater predator.

Alaska↗

Warming causes modest increase in the consumptive demands of invasive Northern Pike (Esox lucius) in Alaska freshwaters

Warming freshwaters can have profound effects on species composition and community structure and can increase the consumptive demand of predators. Here we explore synergistic impacts of warming and invasion within a freshwater community in Southcentral Alaska (USA). We quantified changes in population structure and predator diet composition using observed data for an introduced population of Northern Pike ( Esox lucius ) spanning a decade of warming temperatures and declining salmon returns. We used bioenergetics models to estimate past and contemporary predator consumptive demands and then estimated future consumption demands by applying forecasted future simulated temperatures under high emissions scenarios for the mid and late century compared to a baseline from the last twenty years. During the last decade, the population structure of Northern Pike shifted towards younger individuals with increased growth rates in young of year and Age-1 fish. The biomass of juvenile salmon in Northern Pike diets decreased 30–74% across all age classes of predators, corresponding to a 42% reduction of mean abundance of adult Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the system from 2014–2018 to 2019–2023. Consumption of all fish species was highly variable and all increased, 5% to 63%, consistent with prey switching towards other fishes reflecting possible declines in availability of preferred salmon prey. Bioenergetic simulations revealed modest increases in total per-capita consumption of prey by Northern Pike across mid-century and late-century scenarios, with the largest increases in consumption predicted in individuals three years of age and greater. We also observed increased numbers of Coho Salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) in diets and smaller mean size suggesting a shift to young of year individuals as well as an absence of Sockeye Salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) from diets, which differed from historical baseline data. These findings collectively suggest that changing thermal regimes may have modest but meaningful overall effects, disproportionately affecting the consumptive demands of larger Northern Pike, and may increase total consumption enough to appreciably increase mortality of salmon and other preferred prey.

Alaska↗

Seasonal patterns in riverine carbon form and export from a temperate forested watershed in Southeast Alaska

Riverine export of carbon (C) is an important part of the global C cycle; however, most riverine C budgets focus on individual forms of C and fail to comprehensively measure both organic and inorganic C species in concert. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted high frequency sampling of multiple C forms, including dissolved organic C (DOC), inorganic carbon (as alkalinity), particulate organic C (POC), coarse particulate organic C (CPOC), and invertebrate biomass C across the main run-off season in a predominantly rain-fed watershed in Southeast Alaska. Streamwater concentrations were used to model daily watershed C export from May through October. Concentration and modeled yield data indicated that DOC was the primary form of riverine C export (8708 kg C/km 2 ), except during low flow periods when alkalinity (3125 kg C/km 2 ) was the dominant form of C export. Relative to DOC and alkalinity, export of particulate organic C (POC: 992 kg C/km 2 ; CPOC: 313 kg C/km 2 ) and invertebrates (40 kg C/km 2 ) was small, but these forms of organic matter could disproportionately impact downstream food webs because of their higher quality, assessed via C to nitrogen ratios. These seasonal and flow driven changes to C form and export likely provide subsidies to downstream and nearshore ecosystems such that predicted shifts in regional hydroclimate could substantially impact C transfer and incorporation into aquatic food webs.

Alaska↗

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Climate warming affects arctic and boreal ecosystems by interacting with numerous biophysical factors across heterogeneous landscapes. To assess potential effects of warming on diverse local-scale ecosystems (ecotypes) across northwest Alaska, we compiled data on historical areal changes over the last 25–50 years. Based on historical rates of change relative to time and temperature, we developed three state-transition models to project future changes in area for 60 ecotypes involving 243 potential transitions during three 30-year periods (ending 2040, 2070, 2100). The time model, assuming changes over the past 30 years continue at the same rate, projected a net change, or directional shift, of 6 % by 2100. The temperature model, using past rates of change relative to the past increase in regional mean annual air temperatures (1 °C/30 year), projected a net change of 17 % in response to expected warming of 2, 4, and 6 °C at the end of the three periods. A rate-adjusted temperature model, which adjusted transition rates (±50 %) based on assigned feedbacks associated with 23 biophysical drivers, estimated a net change of 13 %, with 33 ecotypes gaining and 23 ecotypes losing area. Major drivers included shrub and tree expansion, fire, succession, and thermokarst. Overall, projected changes will be modest over the next century even though climate warming increased transition rates up to 9 fold. The strength of this state-transition modeling is that it used a large dataset of past changes to provide a comprehensive assessment of likely future changes associated with numerous drivers affecting the full diversity of ecosystems across a broad region.

Alaska↗

Projected changes in wildlife habitats in Arctic natural areas of northwest Alaska

We project the effects of transitional changes among 60 vegetation and other land cover types (&ldquo;ecotypes&rdquo;) in northwest Alaska over the 21st century on habitats of 162 bird and 39 mammal species known or expected to occur regularly in the region. This analysis, encompassing a broad suite of arctic and boreal wildlife species, entailed building wildlife-habitat matrices denoting levels of use of each ecotype by each species, and projecting habitat changes under historic and expected accelerated future rates of change from increasing mean annual air temperature based on the average of 5 global climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, and from potential influence of a set of 23 biophysical drivers. Under historic rates of change, we project that 52 % of the 201 species will experience an increase in medium- and high-use habitats, 3 % no change, and 45 % a decrease, and that a greater proportion of mammal species (62 %) will experience habitat declines than will bird species (50 %). Outcomes become more dire (more species showing habitat loss) under projections made from effects of biophysical drivers and especially from increasing temperature, although species generally associated with increasing shrub and tree ecotypes will likely increase in distribution. Changes in wildlife habitats likely will also affect trophic cascades, ecosystem function, and ecosystem services; of particular significance are the projected declines in habitats of most small mammals that form the prey base for mesocarnivores and raptors, and habitat declines in 25 of the 50 bird and mammal species used for subsistence hunting and trapping.

Alaska↗

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

Alaska, British Columbia↗

A genetic discontinuity in moose ( Alces alces ) in Alaska corresponds with fenced transportation infrastructure

The strength and arrangement of movement barriers can impact the connectivity among habitat patches. Anthropogenic barriers (e.g. roads) are a source of habitat fragmentation that can disrupt these resource networks and can have an influence on the spatial genetic structure of populations. Using microsatellite data, we evaluated whether observed genetic structure of moose ( Alces alces ) populations were associated with human activities (e.g. roads) in the urban habitat of Anchorage and rural habitat on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. We found evidence of a recent genetic subdivision among moose in Anchorage that corresponds to a major highway and associated infrastructure. This subdivision is most likely due to restrictions in gene flow due to alterations to the highway (e.g. moose-resistant fencing with one-way gates) and a significant increase in traffic volume over the past 30 years; genetic subdivision was not detected on the Kenai Peninsula in an area not bisected by a major highway. This study illustrates that anthropogenic barriers can substructure wildlife populations within a few generations and highlights the value of genetic assessments to determine the effects on connectivity among habitat patches in conjunction with behavioral and ecological data. .

Alaska↗

Energetic status and bioelectrical impedance modeling of Arctic grayling Thymallus arcticus in interior Alaska Rivers

The energetic status of fishes represents energy stored as protein and lipids and reflects the ability of an individual to reproduce, migrate, and transition through life stages, ultimately influencing survival. However, traditional measurement methods, while highly accurate, are time consuming, expensive, and lethal, and nonlethal methods such as condition factor may not adequately characterize energetic status. We collected 161 Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) from four interior Alaska river basins with varying hydrologic regimes during early summer and autumn seasons, and used multiple regression and model selection to evaluate the efficacy of bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA), a nonlethal condition assessment method, to predict percent dry mass and percent lipid content estimated from proximate analysis. We found that Arctic grayling energetic status varied across seasons, by sex, and fish from sites with spawning runs of Pacific salmon had higher energy content than those from sites without salmon, potentially due to the influence of salmon-derived food subsidies. Electrical measurements explained 82% and 80% of the variability in percent dry mass and percent total lipids, respectively, and top models showed high predictive performance (observed vs. predicted root mean squared error ≤2.2%). Overall, we found the BIA approach to provide rapid, precise, and non-lethal estimates of Arctic grayling body condition. Such an approach may be useful for future work to characterize Arctic grayling bioenergetics and monitor fish condition under a rapidly changing Arctic environment.

Alaska↗

Metal exposure and effects in voles and small birds near a mining haul road in Cape Krusenstern National Monument, Alaska

Voles and small passerine birds were live-captured near the Delong Mountain Regional Transportation System (DMTS) haul road in Cape Krusenstern National Monument in northwest Alaska to assess metals exposure and sub-lethal biological effects. Similar numbers of animals were captured from a reference site in southern Cape Krusenstern National Monument for comparison. Histopathological examination of selected organs, and analysis of cadmium, lead, and zinc concentrations in liver and blood samples were performed. Voles and small birds captured from near the haul road had about 20 times greater blood and liver lead concentrations and about three times greater cadmium concentrations when compared to those from the reference site, but there were no differences in zinc tissue concentrations. One vole had moderate metastatic mineralization of kidney tissue, otherwise we observed no abnormalities in internal organs or DNA damage in the blood of any of the animals. The affected vole also had the greatest liver and blood Cd concentration, indicating that the lesion might have been caused by Cd exposure. Blood and liver lead concentrations in animals captured near the haul road were below concentrations that have been associated with adverse biological effects in other studies; however, subtle effects resulting from lead exposure, such as the suppression of the activity of certain enzymes, cannot be ruled out for some individual animals. Results from our 2006 reconnaissance-level study indicate that overall, voles and small birds obtained from near the DMTS road in Cape Krusenstern National Monument were not adversely affected by metals exposure; however, because of the small sample size and other uncertainties, continued monitoring of lead and cadmium in terrestrial habitats near the DMTS road is advised.

Alaska↗