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At least 1,531 records · Page 85Linked to original sources

Real-time nowcasting of microbiological water quality at recreational beaches: A wavelet and artificial neural network-based hybrid modeling approach

The number of beach closings caused by bacterial contamination has continued to rise in recent years, putting beachgoers at risk of exposure to contaminated water. Current approaches predict levels of indicator bacteria using regression models containing a number of explanatory variables. Data-based modeling approaches can supplement routine monitoring data and provide highly accurate short-term forecasts of beach water quality. In this paper, we apply the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) method with explanatory variables to predict Escherichia coli concentrations at four Lake Michigan beach sites. We also apply the nonlinear input–output network (NIO) and nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) methods in addition to a hybrid wavelet-NAR (WA-NAR) model and demonstrate their application. All models were tested using 3 months of observed data. Results revealed that the NARX models provided the best performance and that the WA-NAR model, which requires no explanatory variables, outperformed the NIO and NAR models; therefore, the WA-NAR model is suitable for application to data scarce regions. The models proposed in this paper were evaluated using multiple performance metrics, including sensitivity and specificity measures, and produced results comparable or superior to those of previous mechanistic and statistical models developed for the same beach sites. The relatively high R 2 values between data and the NARX models ( R 2 values of ∼0.8 for the beach sites and ∼0.9 for the river site) indicate that the new class of models shows promise for beach management.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Integrating Bayesian networks to forecast sea-level rise impacts on barrier island characteristics and habitat availability

Evaluation of sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on coastal landforms and habitats is a persistent need for informing coastal planning and management, including policy decisions, particularly those that balance human interests and habitat protection throughout the coastal zone. Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to model barrier island change under different SLR scenarios that are relevant to management and policy decisions. BNs utilized here include a shoreline change model and two models of barrier island biogeomorphological evolution at different scales (50 and 5 m). These BNs were then linked to another BN to predict habitat availability for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ), a threatened shorebird reliant on beach habitats. We evaluated the performance of the two linked geomorphology BNs and further examined error rates by generating hindcasts of barrier island geomorphology and habitat availability for 2014 conditions. Geomorphology hindcasts revealed that model error declined with a greater number of known inputs, with error rates reaching 55% when multiple outputs were hindcast simultaneously. We also found that, although error in predictions of piping plover nest presence/absence increased when outputs from the geomorphology BNs were used as inputs in the piping plover habitat BN, the maximum error rate for piping plover habitat suitability in the fully-linked BNs was only 30%. Our findings suggest this approach may be useful for guiding scenario-based evaluations where known inputs can be used to constrain variables that produce higher uncertainty for morphological predictions. Overall, the approach demonstrates a way to assimilate data and model structures with uncertainty to produce forecasts to inform coastal planning and management.

New York↗

An integrated sensor network and data driven approach to satellite remote sensing of dissolved organic matter

Traditional remote sensing retrieval models for water quality have historically relied on limited, localized data sets due to the prohibitive costs of extensive field campaigns and logistical challenges of collecting match-up data with satellite overpasses. As a result, these models often lack generalizability across seasons, tides, and sites. Furthermore, small field data sets limit the utility of modern machine learning techniques to advance remote sensing retrieval models. In situ optical sensors deployed in a sensor network to continuously monitor larger water bodies can drastically increase the number of measurements, providing the opportunity to develop new approaches for building robust remote sensing retrieval models by leveraging both remote sensing data and in situ networks as an integrated monitoring system. This study leverages a large “ground-to-space” sensor network that combines an in situ optical sensor network with satellite-based remote sensing to overcome these limitations. Utilizing a large-scale data set from the U.S. Geological Survey's Sacramento—San Joaquin River Delta monitoring network, of dissolved organic matter fluorescence measurements, and remote sensing data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-2A and -2B satellites, this study implemented a data driven approach for dissolved organic matter models. The data set, consisting of 982 samples collected between 2018 and 2021 was used to train and validate a random forest model ( R 2 = 0.76, RMSE = 6.1 Quinine Sulfate Equivalents), with demonstrated applicability across diverse site conditions, tidal stages, and seasons. This work provides a scalable solution to address critical challenges in water quality monitoring and offers a replicable framework for global water quality management.

Calfornia↗

Geomorphological mapping and anthropogenic landform change in an urbanizing watershed using structure-from-motion photogrammetry and geospatial modeling techniques

Increasing urbanization and suburban growth in cities globally has highlighted the importance of land planning using detailed geomorphologic maps that depict anthropogenic landform changes. Such mapping provides information crucial for land management, hazard identification, and the management of the challenges arising from urbanization. The development and use of quantitative and repeatable methods to map anthropogenic and natural processes are required to advance the science of urban geomorphological mapping. This study investigated the application of geospatial modeling, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetric methods and DEM differencing as means of quantifying anthropogenic landform changes from archival aerial imagery. Anthropogenic landforms were incorporated into a detailed geomorphologic map in an urbanizing watershed located in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan suburb of Vienna, Virginia.

Virginia↗

Same view through a different lens: Comparing population trends for North American birds using eBird and the Breeding Bird Survey

Confidently estimating population trends is of vital importance for a wide range of ecological, conservation, and management applications. North America has 2 major data sources for estimating population trends of breeding birds—the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the global participatory science project eBird. Because the surveys differ in protocols, coverage, and data analysis, their trend estimates are expected to vary in magnitude, direction, and/or precision for at least some species and regions. Here, we compare independently derived estimates of population change between 2012 and 2022 for every combination of species and bird conservation region (BCR) covered by both surveys ( n = 5,577 combinations) as well as aggregated across entire ranges or within the U.S. or Canada. Uncertainty was substantial for both surveys, though more prevalent for BBS (81% of credibility intervals for estimates included zero) than eBird (34% of confidence intervals overlapped zero). We found agreement of trend directions between the 2 surveys. Only 1.3% of estimated trends were significant in opposite directions between the 2 surveys for all species/BCR combinations, with the median difference in trend magnitude being –0.02% (BBS minus eBird trend). Correlations between the 2 were strongest for estimates that were graded as being high credibility compared to estimates judged to have medium or low credibility. Both surveys were subject to species, taxonomic, and regional effects that influenced agreement. Overall, we show where trend estimates derived from BBS and eBird agree, explore where they diverge, present several comparisons to assist in interpreting results from both surveys, and inform efforts to integrate information from each.

Ornithological Applications↗

Host diversity begets parasite diversity: Bird final hosts and trematodes in snail intermediate hosts

An unappreciated facet of biodiversity is that rich communities and high abundance may foster parasitism. For parasites that sequentially use different host species throughout complex life cycles, parasite diversity and abundance in ‘downstream’ hosts should logically increase with the diversity and abundance of ‘upstream’ hosts (which carry the preceding stages of parasites). Surprisingly, this logical assumption has little empirical support, especially regarding metazoan parasites. Few studies have attempted direct tests of this idea and most have lacked the appropriate scale of investigation. In two different studies, we used time-lapse videography to quantify birds at fine spatial scales, and then related bird communities to larval trematode communities in snail populations sampled at the same small spatial scales. Species richness, species heterogeneity and abundance of final host birds were positively correlated with species richness, species heterogeneity and abundance of trematodes in host snails. Such community-level interactions have rarely been demonstrated and have implications for community theory, epidemiological theory and ecosystem management.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

Worldwide occurrences of arsenic in ground water

Numerous aquifers worldwide carry soluble arsenic at concentrations greater than the World Health Organization--and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency--recommended drinking water standard of 10 mg per liter. Sources include both natural (black shales, young sediments with low flushing rates, gold mineralization, and geothermal environments) and anthropogenic (mining activities, livestock feed additives, pesticides, and arsenic trioxide wastes and stockpiles). Increased solubility and mobility of arsenic is promoted by high pH (>8.5), competing oxyanions, and reducing conditions. In this Policy Forum, Nordstrom argues that human health risks from arsenic in ground water can be minimized by incorporating hydrogeochemical knowledge into water management decisions and by more careful monitoring for arsenic in geologically high-risk areas.

Science↗

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

Ancient infrastructure offers sustainable agricultural solutions to dryland farming

For 1000 years, human populations in dryland regions of the North American Southwest (NAS) extensively constructed diverse forms of agricultural infrastructure, including canals, linear rock alignments, check dams, stock ponds, and other earthworks and rock structures. The long-term hydrological impacts of these and the demographic and socio-political drivers of construction and maintenance have yet to be fully documented or vetted. This paper summarizes existing knowledge attained from the United Stated portion of the NAS, but a lot is still unknown about Northwest Mexico. There remain outstanding questions related to understanding how ancient agriculture might improve modern adaptability and resilience. The detailed ecological and topographical variability of this arid landscape illustrates the essential need for infrastructure in maintaining water and managing the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle. We describe pros and cons of different types of infrastructure and examine socio-environmental trade-offs between robustness and vulnerability produced by reliance on infrastructure, drawing from existing literature to examine timescales longer than a human lifespan. The development of historically-informed management approaches to increase dryland climate resilience benefits from incorporating constraints and opportunities mediated by past landscape modifications. We present a plan for leveraging existing knowledge, available science, and potential, to extend our knowledge base and further explore causal relationships.

Book chapter↗

Opening the Landsat Archive

The USGS Landsat archive holds an unequaled 36-year record of the Earth's surface that is invaluable to climate change studies, forest and resource management activities, and emergency response operations. An aggressive effort is taking place to provide all Landsat imagery [scenes currently held in the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center archive, as well as newly acquired scenes daily] free of charge to users with electronic access via the Web by the end of December 2008. The entire Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) archive acquired since 1999 and any newly acquired Landsat 7 ETM+ images that have less than 40 percent cloud cover are currently available for download. When this endeavor is complete all Landsat 1-5 data will also be available for download. This includes Landsat 1-5 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) scenes, as well as Landsat 4 and 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes.

Fact Sheet↗

Interpretation of dye tracing data collected November 13–December 2, 2017, at the Savoy Experimental Watershed as part of the Advanced Groundwater Field Techniques in Karst Terrains course, Savoy, Arkansas

The first course on the use of advanced groundwater field techniques for karst aquifers was conducted November 13–17, 2017, at the University of Arkansas Savoy Experimental Watershed (SEW), which is located on pastures for beef livestock research conducted by the Department of Animal Sciences at the University of Arkansas at Savoy, Arkansas. The SEW is an interdisciplinary, collaborative, long-term research site for the study of animal-waste management in a mantled karst setting. The course focused on advanced field activities appropriate for karst aquifer studies: dye tracing, groundwater/surface-water interactions, geophysical methods, and geochemistry. This report summarizes the data collected and interpreted from the dye tracing part of the November 2017 course, other USGS field courses, and past dye tracing investigations conducted by University of Arkansas students.

Arkansas↗

Comparison of lapilli otoliths and pectoral fin rays for estimating age of Northern Pikeminnows

The Northern Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis is a piscivorous cyprinid native to western North America. Information on the best structure for estimating the age of Northern Pikeminnows is a key knowledge gap that may limit inquiries on management efforts. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate between-reader precision and concordance between age estimates for lapilli otoliths and pectoral fin rays from Northern Pikeminnows. Age estimates from lapilli otoliths were compared to those from pectoral fin rays of 150 Northern Pikeminnows captured from Lake Cascade, Idaho, in April–May 2022. Exact percent agreement of estimated ages between the readers was higher for fin rays (75.3%) than otoliths (50.0%), with a mean coefficient of variation of 3.5 and 8.7, respectively. Readers also assigned a confidence rating (0–3; higher value reflects higher confidence in age estimate) to each structure. Confidence ratings were higher for fin ray age estimates (mean ± SD; 1.6 ± 0.6) than otolith estimates (1.1 ± 0.7) between readers. A consensus age was estimated for each structure and fish. Agreement between consensus age estimates for otoliths and fin rays was 26.7% with a coefficient of variation of 14.0. Our findings suggest that fin rays were easier to collect, process, and read than otoliths, and resulted in more precise age estimates than otoliths. Results from our study provide guidance on the best structures for estimating the age of Northern Pikeminnows that can be used to inform management efforts.

Idaho↗

Forest bird monitoring protocol for strategic habitat conservation and endangered species management on O'ahu Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Island of O'ahu, Hawai'i

This report describes the results of a pilot forest bird survey and a consequent forest bird monitoring protocol that was developed for the O'ahu Forest National Wildlife Refuge, O'ahu Island, Hawai'i. The pilot survey was conducted to inform aspects of the monitoring protocol and to provide a baseline with which to compare future surveys on the Refuge. The protocol was developed in an adaptive management framework to track bird distribution and abundance and to meet the strategic habitat conservation requirements of the Refuge. Funding for this research was provided through a Science Support Partnership grant sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS).

Hawai'i↗

Characteristics of a ringtail (Bassariscus astutus) population in Trans Pecos, Texas

Despite the common occurrence of ringtails (Bassariscus astutus) few studies have been conducted to assess population characteristics. The objectives of this study were to determine (1) habitat selection, (2) home range, (3) denning characteristics, and (4) food habits of ringtails in the Trans Pecos region of west Texas. Seventeen ringtails were captured between November 1999 and January 2001 using Havahart live box traps. Second- and third-order habitat selection was determined for a ringtail population using range sites, slope, elevation, and vegetation communities. Diets were determined from volumetric scat analysis. The mean summer and winter range sizes (100% Minimum Convex Polygon [MCP]) for ringtails (n = 5) were 0.28 ?? 0.163 km2 and 0.63 ?? 0.219 km2, respectively. Overlap between ringtail ranges averaged 33.3%. Ringtails preferred catclaw (Mimosa biuncifera), persimmon (Diospyros texana), oak (Quercus sp.) bottom and catclaw/goldeneye (Viguiera stenoloba), sideoats (Bouteloua curtipendula) slope communities. Rock dens were used exclusively by ringtails, with 80.6% of dens found on slopes between 30-60%. Plant (seeds and miscellaneous vegetation) and animal material were found in 74.6 and 86.6% of scats, respectively. Findings suggest that ringtails in Trans Pecos, Texas, are an important component of the ecosystem and that management practices should conserve canyon habitats and adjacent slopes for ringtails.

Texas Journal of Science↗

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Natchez Trace Parkway vegetation mapping project report

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program is an effort to classify, describe, and map existing vegetation of national park units for the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program. The NPS VMI Program is managed by the NPS I&M Division and provides baseline vegetation information to the NPS Natural Resource I&M Program. The U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, NPS Gulf Coast Network, and NPS Natchez Trace Parkway (NATR; also referred to as Parkway) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of NATR for the NPS VMI Program. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to affirm vegetation types within the U.S. National Vegetation Classification (USNVC) of NATR and to determine how best to map them by using aerial imagery. Analyses of data from 589 vegetation plots had been used to describe an initial 99 USNVC associations in the Parkway; this classification work was completed prior to beginning this NATR vegetation mapping project. Data were collected during this project from another eight quick plots to support new vegetation types not previously identified at the Parkway. Data from 120 verification sites were collected to test the field key to vegetation associations and the application of vegetation associations to a sample set of map polygons. Furthermore, data from 900 accuracy assessment (AA) sites were collected (of which 894 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer). The collective of all these datasets resulted in affirming 122 USNVC associations at NATR. To map the vegetation and open water of NATR, 63 map classes were developed. including the following: 54 map classes represent natural (including ruderal) vegetation types in the USNVC, 5 map classes represent cultural (agricultural and developed) vegetation types in the USNVC, 3 map classes represent nonvegetation open-water bodies (non-USNVC), and 1 map class represents landscapes that had received tornado damage a few months prior to the time of aerial imagery collection. Features were interpreted from viewing 4-band digital aerial imagery by means of digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems. (The aerial imagery was collected during mid-October 2011 for the northern reach of the Parkway and mid-November 2011 for the southern reach of the Parkway to capture peak leaf-phenology of trees.) The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial-database layers usable in geographic information systems. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5 hectare (ha) or 0.25 ha minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type or scenario. A geodatabase containing various feature-class layers and tables present the locations of USNVC vegetation types (vegetation map), vegetation plot samples, verification sites, AA sites, project boundary extent, and aerial image centers. The feature-class layer and related tables for the vegetation map provide 13,529 polygons of detailed attribute data covering 21,655.5 ha, with an average polygon size of 1.6 ha; the vegetation map coincides closely with the administrative boundary for NATR. Summary reports generated from the vegetation map layer of the map classes representing USNVC natural (including ruderal) vegetation types apply to 12,648 polygons (93.5% of polygons) and cover 18,542.7 ha (85.6%) of the map extent for NATR. The map layer indicates the Parkway to be 70.5% forest and woodland (15,258.7 ha), 0.3% shrubland (63.0 ha), and 14.9% herbaceous cover (3,221.0 ha). Map classes representing USNVC cultural types apply to 678 polygons (5.0% of polygons) and cover 2,413.9 ha (11.1%) of the map extent.

Natural Resource Report↗

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Appalachian National Scenic Trail vegetation mapping project

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program classifies, describes, and maps existing vegetation of national park units for the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program. The NPS VMI Program is managed by the NPS I&M Division and provides baseline vegetation information to the NPS Natural Resource I&M Program. The U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, NPS Northeast Temperate Network, and NPS Appalachian National Scenic Trail (APPA) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of APPA for the NPS VMI Program. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to affirm vegetation types within the U.S. National Vegetation Classification (USNVC) of APPA and to determine how best to map the vegetation types by using aerial imagery. Analyses of data from 1,618 vegetation plots were used to describe USNVC associations of APPA. Data from 289 verification sites were collected to test the field key to vegetation associations and the application of vegetation associations to a sample set of map polygons. Data from 269 validation sites were collected to assess vegetation mapping prior to submitting the vegetation map for accuracy assessment (AA). Data from 3,265 AA sites were collected, of which 3,204 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer. The collective of these datasets affirmed 280 USNVC associations for the APPA vegetation mapping project. To map the vegetation and land cover of APPA, 169 map classes were developed. The 169 map classes consist of 150 that represent natural (including ruderal) vegetation types in the USNVC, 11 that represent cultural (agricultural and developed) vegetation types in the USNVC, 5 that represent natural landscapes with catastrophic disturbance or some other modification to natural vegetation preventing accurate classification in the USNVC, and 3 that represent nonvegetated water (non-USNVC). Features were interpreted from viewing 4-band digital aerial imagery using digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems (GIS). (Digital aerial imagery was collected each fall during 2009–11 to capture leaf-phenology change of hardwood trees across the latitudinal range of APPA.) The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial-database layers usable in GIS. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5-hectare (ha) or 0.25-ha minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type or scenario; however, polygon units were mapped to 0.1 ha for alpine vegetation. A geodatabase containing various feature-class layers and tables provide locations and support data to USNVC vegetation types (vegetation map layer), vegetation plots, verification sites, validation sites, AA sites, project boundary extent and zones, and aerial image centers and flight lines. The feature-class layer and related tables of the vegetation map layer provide 30,395 polygons of detailed attribute data covering 110,919.7 ha, with an average polygon size of 3.6 ha; the vegetation map coincides closely with the administrative boundary for APPA. Summary reports generated from the vegetation map layer of the map classes representing USNVC natural (including ruderal) vegetation types apply to 28,242 polygons (92.9% of polygons) and cover 106,413.0 ha (95.9%) of the map extent for APPA. The map layer indicates APPA to be 92.4% forest and woodland (102,480.8 ha), 1.7% shrubland (1866.3 ha), and 1.8% herbaceous cover (2,065.9 ha). Map classes representing park-special vegetation (undefined in the USNVC) apply to 58 polygons (0.2% of polygons) and cover 404.3 ha (0.4%) of the map extent. Map classes representing USNVC cultural types apply to 1,777 polygons (5.8% of polygons) and cover 2,516.3 ha (2.3%) of the map extent. Map classes representing nonvegetated water (non-USNVC) apply to 332 polygons (1.1% of polygons) and cover 1,586.2 ha (1.4%) of the map extent.

Appalachian National Scenic Trail↗

Trends in colony sizes for five colonial waterbird species in the Atlantic Flyway

Robust estimates of colonial waterbird (CWB) breeding population trends are deficient owing to a lack of range wide, standardized survey efforts. Evaluating conservation priorities and effectiveness of management requires reliable trend estimates across multiple spatial scales. One potential data source for CWB trend estimation is the Colonial Waterbird Database, created in 2003 by U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and intermittently updated since then. The database combines state or provincial survey data, particularly from the United States Atlantic Flyway, with historical colony counts obtained from publications. We combined recently collected survey data from Atlantic Flyway states and provinces with data archived in the database to generate population size trend estimates for five species: Double-crested Cormorant ( Phalacrocorax auritus ), Laughing Gull ( Leucophaeus atricilla ), Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum ), Common Tern ( Sterna hirundo ), and Black Skimmer ( Rynchops niger ). These species represent two actively managed conflict species and three species of conservation concern, respectively. We used mixed effects models to fit an exponential growth model to determine yearly trends in populations at Atlantic Flyway- and state-scales with survey data collected between 1964 and 2019. Direction of within-state trend estimates varied. Trends for some species (Common Tern, Laughing Gull) were increasing in northern states and decreasing further south. At the Flyway scale, Double-crested Cormorant increased (2.08 ± 0.28 % year-1) and Least Tern (-1.40 ± 0.36 % year-1) and Black Skimmer (-1.13 ± 0.68 % year -1) decreased, while Flyway-scale trends in Common Tern and Laughing Gull were not significant. Our analysis provides cross-state trend estimates to inform CWB management actions along the Atlantic Flyway.

Cooperator Science Series↗

Waterfowl migration on Klamath Basin National Wildlife Refuges 1953-2001

The Klamath Basin National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) complex, located in northeastern California and southern Oregon, is situated on a major Pacific Flyway migration corridor connecting waterfowl breeding grounds in the north with major wintering grounds in California and Mexico. The complex comprises five waterfowl refuges including Lower Klamath NWR, Tule Lake NWR, Upper Klamath NWR, Klamath Marsh NWR, and Clear Lake NWR, and one bald eagle refuge, Bear Valley NWR. Lower Klamath and Tule Lake NWRs are the largest refuges in the complex; historically, they supported some of the greatest autumn and spring concentrations of migrating waterfowl in North America. Starting in 1953, standardized waterfowl surveys from small aircraft have been conducted in autumn through spring. This report summarizes waterfowl migration activity (i.e., abundance, species composition, distribution on refuges, and chronology) over four time periods—the long-term (1953-2001), early (1953-76), recent (1977-2001), and the most recent (1998-2001)—to describe changing patterns of migration on Klamath Basin refuges from autumn 1953 to spring 2001. Over the long term, waterfowl abundance (birds per day) on the refuge complex averaged about 1.0 million in autumn and about 360,000 in spring. A record peak count of 5.8 million waterfowl was recorded September 24-25, 1958. Average abundance of autumn staging waterfowl for the refuge complex, after reaching record levels in the 1950s and early 1960s, began a decline that lasted until the 1980s. A gradual recovery occurred during the 1990s, but autumn abundance has not recovered to pre-1970 levels. In contrast to autumn, average spring abundance was generally lower in the early decades but has gradually increased through the 1990s, particularly on Lower Klamath NWR. Dabbling ducks represented an average of 68% of all waterfowl in autumn and 55% in spring for the long term. Northern pintail ( Anas acuta ) was dominant, representing 62% of all dabblers in autumn and 51% in spring. A significant decline in pintail abundance starting in the late 1950s altered waterfowl composition on Klamath Basin refuges. As pintail declined, other species such as mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and green-winged teal ( Anas crecca ) increased in abundance. Although Arctic nesting geese, including white-fronted ( Anser albifrons ), cackling Canada ( Branta canadensis minima ), white geese (lesser snow [ Chen caerulescens caerulescens ], and Ross’s [ Chen rossii ]) have become less prominent in recent decades, they reached an historically high abundance during autumn in the 1960s and 1970s, particularly on Tule Lake NWR. Tule Lake NWR supported the highest average autumn waterfowl populations until surpassed by Lower Klamath NWR around 1980. During the recent period (1977-2001), Lower Klamath NWR accounted for 60% of all waterfowl using the refuge complex in autumn and 61% in spring. Habitat diversity and wetland productivity contributed to its greater waterfowl abundance. Tule Lake NWR supported the most geese over the long term, 79% in autumn and 66% in spring; however, total waterfowl abundance on this refuge in autumn has been in decline, likely because of reduced diversity and productivity of sumps in the refuge. Upper Klamath, Klamath Marsh, and Clear Lake NWRs accounted for less than 8% of total waterfowl use in autumn and spring but provided diverse habitats for migrants. Waterfowl use-days on Klamath Basin refuges typically peaked in mid-autumn, decreased as migrants passed through the basin, and then reached a lesser peak during spring passage. Waterfowl abundance reached a pronounced peak in autumn during the early period (1953-76), but spring peak buildup was much less pronounced. For the recent period the autumn peak was more subdued. Waterfowl abundance, species composition, and distribution on Klamath Basin refuges have fluctuated over the decades and have been influenced by events such as productivity on breeding grounds and habitat conditions on wintering grounds that cause shifts in migration patterns. A major challenge for the future appears to be the availability of adequate water for wetland management on Klamath Basin refuges.

California, Oregon↗