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Bayesian networks facilitate updating of species distribution and habitat suitability models

Managers often rely on predictions of species distributions and habitat suitability to inform conservation and management decisions. Although numerous approaches are available to develop models to make these predictions, few approaches exist to update existing models as new data accumulate. There is a need for updatable models to ensure good modeling practices in an aim to keep pace with change in the environment and change in data availability to continue to use the best-available science to inform decisions. We demonstrated a workflow to deliver predictive models to user groups within Bayesian networks, allowing models to be used to make predictions across new sites and to be easily updated with new data. To demonstrate this workflow, we focus on species distribution and habitat suitability models given their importance to informing conservation strategies across the globe. In particular, we followed a standard process of collating species encounter data available in online databases and ancillary covariate data to develop a habitat suitability model. We then used this model to parameterize a Bayesian network and updated the model with new data to predict species presence in a new focal ecoregion. We found the network updated relatively quickly as new data were incorporated, and the overall error rate generally decreased with each model update. Our approach allows for the formal incorporation of new data into predictions to help ensure model predictions are based on all relevant data available, regardless of whether they were collected after initial model development. Although our focus is on species distribution and habitat suitability models to inform conservation efforts, the workflow we describe herein can easily be applied to any use case where model uncertainty reduction and increased model prediction accuracy are desired via model updating as new data become available. Thus, our paper describes a generalizable workflow to implement model updating, which is widely recognized as a good modeling practice but is also underutilized in applied ecology.

Oregon, Washington↗

Mapping of Florida's coastal and marine resources: Setting priorities workshop

The importance of mapping habitats and bioregions as a means to improve resource management has become increasingly clear. Large areas of the waters surrounding Florida are unmapped or incompletely mapped, possibly hindering proper management and good decisionmaking. Mapping of these ecosystems is among the top priorities identified by the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council in their Annual Science Research Plan. However, lack of prioritization among the coastal and marine areas and lack of coordination of agency efforts impede efficient, cost–effective mapping. A workshop on Mapping of Florida’s Coastal and Marine Resources was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), and Southeastern Regional Partnership for Planning and Sustainability (SERPPAS). The workshop was held at the USGS Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) in St. Petersburg, FL, on February 7-8, 2007. The workshop was designed to provide State, Federal, university, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) the opportunity to discuss their existing data coverage and create a prioritization of areas for new mapping data in Florida. Specific goals of the workshop were multifold, including to: provide information to agencies on state-of-the-art technology for collecting data; inform participants of the ongoing mapping programs in waters off Florida; present the mapping needs and priorities of the State and Federal agencies and entities operating in Florida; work with State of Florida agencies to establish an overall priority for areas needing mapping; initiate discussion of a unified classification of habitat and bioregions; discuss and examine the need to standardize terminology and data collection/storage so that data, in particular habitat data, can be shared; identify opportunities for partnering and leveraging mapping efforts among agencies and entities; identify impediments and organizational gaps that hinder collection of data for mapping; seek innovative solutions to the primary obstacles identified; identify the steps needed to move mapping of Florida’s oceans and coasts forward, in preparation for a better coordinated, more cost-effective mapping program to allow State and Federal agencies to make better decisions on coastal-resource issues. Over 90 invited participants representing more than 30 State and Federal agencies, universities, NGOs, and private industries played a large role in the success of this two-day workshop. State of Florida agency participants created a ranked priority order for mapping 13 different regions around Florida. The data needed for each of the 13 priority regions were outlined. A matrix considering State and Federal priorities was created, utilizing input from all agencies. The matrix showed overlapping interests of the entities and will allow for partnering and leveraging of resources. The five most basic mapping needs were determined to be bathymetry, high-vertical resolution coastline for sea-level rise scenarios, shoreline change, subsurface geology, and benthic habitats at sufficient scale. There was a clear convergence on the need to coordinate mapping activities around the state. Suggestions for coordination included: creating a glossary of terms: a standard for specifying agency data-mapping needs; creating a geographic information officer (GIO) position or permanent organizing group to maintain communications established at this workshop and to maintain progress on the issues identified during the workshop. The person or group could develop a website, maintain a project-status matrix, develop a list of contacts, create links to legislative updates and links to funding sources; developing a web portal and one-stop/clearinghouse of data. There was general consensus on the need to adopt a single habitat classification system and a strategy to accommodate existing systems smoothly. Unresolved aspects of the systems warrant that a separate workshop would be needed to work out details. Participants recognized that the State priority list would necessarily be updated periodically. An annual review of priorities would facilitate information exchange, mapping activities updates, and re-allocation of funding among changing priorities. It was recognized that mapping of State waters would take billions of dollars and in light of tightening budgets there was need for processes that could be used to appropriate or leverage monies for mapping and reduce data-collection costs. Fourteen different avenues were explored. There was a clear consensus that the linking of public to private partnerships to support mapping was imperative, and ways to achieve this were discussed.

Florida↗

Developing a stochastic hydrological model for informing lake water level drawdown management

Winter drawdown (WD) is a common lake management tool for multiple purposes such as flood control, aquatic vegetation reduction, and lake infrastructure maintenance. To minimize adverse impacts to a lake’s ecosystem, regulatory agencies may provide managers with general guidelines for drawdown and refill timing, drawdown magnitude, and outflow limitations. However, there is significant uncertainty associated with the potential to meet management targets due to variability in lake characteristics and hydrometeorology of each lake’s basin, making the use of modeling tools a necessity. In this context, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for lake water level drawdown management (HMF-Lake) and evaluated it at 15 Massachusetts lakes where WDs have been applied over multiple years for vegetation control. HMF-Lake is based on the daily lake water balance, with inflows simulated by a lumped rainfall-runoff model (Cemaneige-GR4J) and outflow rate calculated by a modified Target Storage and Release Based Method (TSRB). The model showed a satisfactory performance of simulating historical water levels (0.53 ≤ NSE ≤ 0.86), however, uncertainties from meteorological inputs and TSRB determined lake outflow rate affected the result accuracy. To account for these uncertainties, the model was executed stochastically to assess the ability of study lakes to follow the Massachusetts’ general WD guidelines: drawdown by Dec 1 and fully refilled by Apr 1. By using the stochastic HMF-Lake, the probabilities of each lake to reach the drawdown level by Dec 1 were calculated for different drawdown magnitudes (1–6 ft). The probability results suggest it was generally less possible for most of study lakes to achieve a drawdown of 3 ft or more by Dec 1. Moreover, we employed the stochastic model to derive the annual latest refill starting dates that ensure a 95 % probability of reaching the normal water level by Apr 1. We found starting a refill in March for drawdowns up to 6 ft was feasible for most of study lakes. These results provide lake managers with a quantitative understanding of the lake’s ability to follow the state guidelines. The model may be used to systematically evaluate current WD management strategies at state or regional scales and support adaptive WD management under changing climates.

Massachusetts↗

A model of strength

In her AAAS News & Notes piece "Can the Southwest manage its thirst?" (26 July, p. 362), K. Wren quotes Ajay Kalra, who advocates a particular method for predicting Colorado River streamflow "because it eschews complex physical climate models for a statistical data-driven modeling approach." A preference for data-driven models may be appropriate in this individual situation, but it is not so generally, Data-driven models often come with a warning against extrapolating beyond the range of the data used to develop the models. When the future is like the past, data-driven models can work well for prediction, but it is easy to over-model local or transient phenomena, often leading to predictive inaccuracy (1). Mechanistic models are built on established knowledge of the process that connects the response variables with the predictors, using information obtained outside of an extant data set. One may shy away from a mechanistic approach when the underlying process is judged to be too complicated, but good predictive models can be constructed with statistical components that account for ingredients missing in the mechanistic analysis. Models with sound mechanistic components are more generally applicable and robust than data-driven models.

Science↗

Distribution, density, and biomass of introduced small mammals in the southern mariana islands

Although it is generally accepted that introduced small mammals have detrimental effects on island ecology, our understanding of these effects is frequently limited by incomplete knowledge of small mammal distribution, density, and biomass. Such information is especially critical in the Mariana Islands, where small mammal density is inversely related to effectiveness of Brown Tree Snake (Boiga irregularis) control tools, such as mouse-attractant traps. We used mark-recapture sampling to determine introduced small mammal distribution, density, and biomass in the major habitats of Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian, including grassland, Leucaena forest, and native limestone forest. Of the five species captured, Rattus diardii (sensu Robins et al. 2007) was most common across habitats and islands. In contrast, Mus musculus was rarely captured at forested sites, Suncus murinus was not captured on Rota, and R. exulans and R. norvegicus captures were uncommon. Modeling indicated that neophobia, island, sex, reproductive status, and rain amount influenced R. diardii capture probability, whereas time, island, and capture heterogeneity influenced S. murinus and M. musculus capture probability. Density and biomass were much greater on Rota, Saipan, and Tinian than on Guam, most likely a result of Brown Tree Snake predation pressure on the latter island. Rattus diardii and M. musculus density and biomass were greatest in grassland, whereas S. murinus density and biomass were greatest in Leucaena forest. The high densities documented during this research suggest that introduced small mammals (especially R. diardii) are impacting abundance and diversity of the native fauna and flora of the Mariana Islands. Further, Brown Tree Snake control and management tools that rely on mouse attractants will be less effective on Rota, Saipan, and Tinian than on Guam. If the Brown Tree Snake becomes established on these islands, high-density introduced small mammal populations will likely facilitate and support a high-density Brown Tree Snake population, even as native species are reduced or extirpated. ?? 2009 by University of Hawai'i Press All rights reserved.

Pacific Science↗

Synthesis of juvenile salmonid passage studies at The Dalles Dam volume II: 2001 - 2005

The overall goal of juvenile salmonid research at The Dalles Dam is to provide data to inform decisions on strategies to improve smolt survival rates at the project. Survival improvement strategies address the three primary passage routes at The Dalles Dam -- spillway, sluiceway, and turbines – with the general intent to increase spill and sluice passage and decrease turbine passage. From 2001, when Ploskey et al. (2001a) completed their review of 1982-2000 research, through 2005, the USACE has funded over $20M of research in at least 40 studies. The purpose of this current review is to synthesize juvenile salmonid passage data at The Dalles Dam (TDA) collected from 2001 through 2005.

Oregon, Washington↗

The Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program: Guide to information about the geology and mineral resources of the Ketchikan and Prince Rupert quadrangles, southeastern Alaska

The Ketchikan and Prince Rupert 1-degree by 2-degree quadrangles, which encompass about 16,000 km2 at the south tip of southeastern Alaska, have been investigated by integrated field and laboratory studies in the disciplines of geology, geochemistry, geophysics, and Landsat data interpretation to determine their mineral-resource potential. Mineral deposits in the study area have been mined or prospected intermittently since about 1900, and production of small tonnages of ores containing gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, and tungsten has been recorded. Extensive exploration and development currently (1981) is underway at a molybdenum prospect about 65 km east of Ketchikan. Our mineral-resource assessment indicates that the area contains potentially significant amounts of those metallic commodities, as well as of molybdenum, iron, antimony, and barite. The results of these studies have been published in a folio of maps accompanied by descriptive texts, diagrams, tables, and pertinent references. The present report serves as a guide to these investigations, provides relevant background information, and integrates the component maps and reports. It also describes revisions to the geology based on studies completed since the folio was published and includes a list of specific and general references on the geology and mineral deposits of the study area.

Alaska↗

Shaded relief aeromagnetic map of the Santa Clara Valley and vicinity, California

This aeromagnetic map covers the southern portion of San Francisco Bay, the Santa Clara Valley and surrounding mountains, part of which has been modelled in threedimensions (Jachens and other, 2001). The magnetic anomaly map has been compiled from existing digital data. Data was obtained from six aeromagnetic surveys that were flown at different times, spacings and elevations. The International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) for the date of each survey had been removed in the initial processing. The resulting residual magnetic anomalies were analytically continued onto a common surface 305 m (1000 ft) above terrain. Portions of each survey were substantially above the specified flight height listed in the table. The surveys were then merged together using a commercial software package called Oasis Montage. The gray lines on the map indicate the extent of each survey. The program used these regions of overlap to determine the best fit between surveys. Black dots show probable edges of magnetic bodies defined by the maximum horizontal gradient determined using a computer program by Blakely (1995). Crystalline rocks generally contain sufficient magnetic minerals to cause variations in the Earth’s magnetic field that can be mapped by aeromagnetic surveys. Sedimentary rocks are generally weakly magnetized and consequently have a small effect on the magnetic field: thus a magnetic anomaly map can be used to “see through” the sedimentary rock cover and can convey information on lithologic contrasts and structural trends related to the underlying crystalline basement (see Nettleton,1971; Blakely, 1995). Faults often cut magnetic bodies and offset magnetic anomalies can thus be used to help determine fault motion. Serpentinite, which is highly magnetic, is often found along faults. On this map areas of low magnetic anomalies are shown in blues and green while highs are shown in reds and magentas. Faults are from Brabb and others, 1998a,1998b, Graymer and others 1996, Lienkaemper, 1992 and Wentworth and others 1998.

California↗

SEGY to ASCII Conversion and Plotting Program 2.0

INTRODUCTION SEGY has long been a standard format for storing seismic data and header information. Almost every seismic processing package can read and write seismic data in SEGY format. In the data processing world, however, ASCII format is the 'universal' standard format. Very few general-purpose plotting or computation programs will accept data in SEGY format. The software presented in this report, referred to as SEGY to ASCII (SAC), converts seismic data written in SEGY format (Barry et al., 1975) to an ASCII data file, and then creates a postscript file of the seismic data using a general plotting package (GMT, Wessel and Smith, 1995). The resulting postscript file may be plotted by any standard postscript plotting program. There are two versions of SAC: one version for plotting a SEGY file that contains a single gather, such as a stacked CDP or migrated section, and a second version for plotting multiple gathers from a SEGY file containing more than one gather, such as a collection of shot gathers. Note that if a SEGY file has multiple gathers, then each gather must have the same number of traces per gather, and each trace must have the same sample interval and number of samples per trace. SAC will read several common standards of SEGY data, including SEGY files with sample values written in either IBM or IEEE floating-point format. In addition, utility programs are present to convert non-standard Seismic Unix (.sux) SEGY files and PASSCAL (.rsy) SEGY files to standard SEGY files. SAC allows complete user control over all plotting parameters including label size and font, tick mark intervals, trace scaling, and the inclusion of a title and descriptive text. SAC shell scripts create a postscript image of the seismic data in vector rather than bitmap format, using GMT's pswiggle command. Although this can produce a very large postscript file, the image quality is generally superior to that of a bitmap image, and commercial programs such as Adobe Illustrator? can manipulate the image more efficiently.

Open-File Report↗

Preliminary aeromagnetic anomaly map of California

The magnetization in crustal rocks is the vector sum of induced in minerals by the Earth’s present main field and the remanent magnetization of minerals susceptible to magnetization (chiefly magnetite) (Blakely, 1995). The direction of remanent magnetization acquired during the rock’s history can be highly variable. Crystalline rocks generally contain sufficient magnetic minerals to cause variations in the Earth’s magnetic field that can be mapped by aeromagnetic surveys. Sedimentary rocks are generally weakly magnetized and consequently have a small effect on the magnetic field: thus a magnetic anomaly map can be used to “see through” the sedimentary rock cover and can convey information on lithologic contrasts and structural trends related to the underlying crystalline basement (see Nettleton,1971; Blakely, 1995). The magnetic anomaly map (fig. 2) provides a synoptic view of major anomalies and contributes to our understanding of the tectonic development of California. Reference fields, that approximate the Earth’s main (core) field, have been subtracted from the recorded magnetic data. The resulting map of the total magnetic anomalies exhibits anomaly patterns related to the distribution of magnetized crustal rocks at depths shallower than the Curie point isotherm (the surface within the Earth beneath which temperatures are so high that rocks lose their magnetic properties). The magnetic anomaly map has been compiled from existing digital data. Data obtained from aeromagnetic surveys that were made at different times, spacings and elevations, were merged by analytical continuation of each set onto a common surface 305 m (1000 ft) above terrain. Digital data in this compatible form allows application of analytical techniques (Blakley, 1995) that can be used to enhance anomaly characteristics (e.g., wavelength and trends) and provide new interpretive information.

California↗

Geology of the Arabian Peninsula; shield area of western Saudi Arabia

Western Arabia lies within the low-latitude desert of north Africa and the Middle East, the core being the Arabian segment of the African Shield. The core of complex basement rocks accounts for about 670,000 km 2 , or one-third of the Arabian Peninsula. Reconnaissance mapping of these crystalline rocks, together with bordering sedimentary rocks and volcanic flows, begun in 1950, resulted during the next 13 years in a series of geologic and geographic maps without extensive texts. The maps served as general guides for development of natural resources, including water supplies, ore deposits, and building materials. An intensive exploration program that began in 1963 and involved numerous geologists has vastly increased geologic information. Rainfall in Arabia is meager and episodic, and vegetation is sparse except in isolated copses on the crest of the Hejaz Range. Comparison of flora with similar species in the Sudan, where records of rainfall have long been kept, allows evaluation of mean annual precipitation. Wandering bedouin following fodder created a delicate balance between population and water supply-now disturbed by wells drilled in alluvium and lava fields. A trapezoidal region of Precambrian crystalline rocks lies along the northeast flank of the Red Sea, with two long prongs extending northwest and southeast for a total of 1,800 km. These basement rocks of the Arabian Shield are well exposed on the uplands, scarp mountains, and coastal pediments where the Phanerozoic cover rocks have been stripped as a result of Paleozoic epeirogeny and Tertiary ramping. The shield outcrops are divided into three tectonic provinces by N. 45°W.- trending shear zones of the Najd fault system of latest Proterozoic and possibly earliest Paleozoic time. The southwestern province, the 'Asir1 upland, was sharply uplifted and tilted to the northeast during the Neogene. The northwestern province, consisting of the Ash Shifa'- Hisma upland as well as Jabal Shammar farther east, similarly was uplifted and tilted. These two provinces are separated by the flat-lying median N ajd province, which is chiefly bounded by the principal Najd faults. The outcrops of the shield rocks are of the Late Proterozoic Eonupper Riphean to Vendian or Infracambrian epochs, including the Ediacarian System. The most reliable isotopic ages range from about 900 to 560 m.y., but some Middle Proterozoic rocks may be present in the easternmost shield. The rocks are divided into six lithostratigraphic sequences, two plutonic suites, and an ophiolitic suite. The mafic and ultramafic volcanic and plutonic rocks of the ophiolitic suite everywhere were emplaced tectonically and are probably of different ages in different places. Some ophiolite occurs as obducted blocks, but most is highly deformed and altered to serpentinite in fault zones that mostly define sutures between different tectonic blocks or terranes within the shield. Three of the lithostratigraphic sequences consist of mafic to silicic volcanic rocks and volcanic-derived clastic rocks which, with their subvolcanic plutonic rocks of a dioritic suite, probably formed in oceanic island arcs during convergent plate tectonism. These rocks make up the primary, or first-formed, crust of the shield. Chemical analyses show that the primary shield rocks, regardless of age, are principally calc-alkalic with some associated tholeiitic varieties. Most of the layered rocks are andesitic, but they range from basalt to dacite and in places contain intercalated pillow basalt, marble, chert, and carbonaceous or graphitic schist. Most of the plutonic rocks of the dioritic suite are dioritic, but they range from gabbro to trondhjemite and rarely contain potassium feldspar. The sequences and an associated dioritic suite become younger toward the eastern shield, that is, the primary crust of the shield youngs toward the east. Two western sequences consist of the Jiddah (Samran) and BaishBahah Groups and range in radiometric age from about 900 to 800 m.y.; the eastern sequence consists of the Halaban (Hulayfah) Group and ranges from 800 to about 700 m.y. During subsequent orogeny, most of the rocks were intensely deformed and mostly metamorphosed to upper greenschist facies, but rising in places to the almandine-amphibolite facies. Two other lithostratigraphic sequences with an associated plutonic granitic suite are the products of two mountain-building episodes during which the primary crust was greatly thickened and converted into craton. The two sequences, including largely the Ablah (Al Ays) and Murdama (Shammar) Groups, consist of abundant sedimentary rocks, commonly arkosic, that are the erosional products of the orogenic mountains. They are several thousand meters thick. Less abundant calc-alkalic to alkalic volcanic rocks, commonly dacitic and rhyolitic, are intercalated with the sedimentary rocks. The plutonic rocks of the granitic suite in association with both sequences have syntectonic and posttectonic phases, are products of the orogenies, and are the principal new ingredients making up the craton. Gneiss domes were a significant part of these cratonization orogenies. In association with orogenic crustal heating, some of the low-density, more silicic tonalitic and trondhjemitic rocks of the primary crust rose as gneiss domes. Partial melting in the middle or lower crust below the gneiss domes produced large volumes of granitic magma that intruded the gneiss domes as granodioritic batholiths. The Ablah Group and the older part of the granitic suite are about 775 to 740 Ma old and are associated with the Ablah orogeny and early cratonization in the western and earlier formed half of the shield. The Murdama (Shammar) Group and the younger part of the granitic suite are about 660 to 580 Ma old and are associated with the culminant orogeny and late cratonization that was shieldwide. The granitic suite during both orogenies consists of early, syntectonic granodiorite batholiths associated with the gneiss domes and late, posttectonic monzogranite plutons. Only during the culminant orogeny, late magmatic evolution produced syenogranite and alkali-feldspar granite commonly in circular and ring-structured plutons and with associated explosive volcanic deposits (Shammar Group); final products, some of which have economic potential, were peralkalic and peraluminous. The late plutonism of the culminant orogeny was distinctly bimodal in that subordinate gabbroic rocks are associated with the granites. Various building blocks or terranes of the andesitic and dioritic primary crust were collisionally agglomerated during the Ablah orogeny, early cratonization, whereas the entire shield as currently exposed was further collisionally accreted and compressionally consolidated during the culminant orogeny, final cratonization. Thousands of kilometers of oceanic crust had to be subducted in about 300 m.y. to form the large primary crust of the Arabian Shield. The inevitable collisional events during consumption of such a large volume of oceanic crust invariably led to numerous collisional orogenies that collectively encompass the widely known Pan African tectonic episode. The youngest lithostratigraphic sequence, the Jubaylah Group, is essentially postcratonic, although it is the end product of the collisional culminant orogeny. Final east-west compression of the entire shield from about 580 to 560 m.y. caused the craton to fracture along the large northwest-trending, left-lateral faults and elsewhere along lesser, northeast-trending, right-lateral, conjugate faults of the N ajd fault system. Erosional products of this more localized deformation were the sedimentary rocks of the Jubaylah Group, which also includes intercalated andesitic to basaltic volcanic rocks of a mafic alkalic compositional trend. The collisional edge of an old continental plate (or tectonic fragments thereof), suspected on the eastern edge of the Arabian Shield, has not been shown with certainty to be exposed. Presumably, widespread contamination from such an old continental crust affects U/Pb, Sm/Nd, Rb/Sr, and common lead ratios in the young plutonic rocks of the easternmost shield. One mass of anorthosite near Jabal Khida' on the central eastern edge of the shield may be a fragment of this old continental plate in that associated granodiorite may be as old as 1,600 to 1,800 Ma. Epeirogenic uplift, erosion, and cooling of the uppermost shield during Early and Middle Cambrian time is indicated by an average fission track age of 510±52 m.y., on sphene from diorite (hornblende K-Ar age of 615±12 m.y.) in the southwestern part of the shield. The hiatus was followed by extensive deposition of the Cambro-Ordovician Saq Sandstone in the north and northeast and the Wajid Sandstone in the southeast and south of the shield. The Cambrian Siq Sandstone had already been deposited in the northern part. During the middle and late Paleozoic, broad epeirogeny caused further erosion of the shield until marine transgression deposited the Upper Permian Khuff Formation at least in the eastern part of the shield. In the southwestern shield, the nonmarine Upper Triassic Khums Sandstone was deposited variably on Wajid or Precambrian rocks and is overlain by limestone of the middle Upper Jurassic Amran Formation. Except for shallow marine sandstone of problematic Cretaceous age deposited on the Amran Formation in the south.western shield and on Precambrian rocks in the northwestern shield, the younger beds on the shield are Paleocene and younger, with the possibility that the lowermost are upper Maestrichtian. The early Tertiary beds contain vertebrate fossils of coastal marine or estuarine environment 250 km east of the Red Sea in the central shield. Marginal marine sediments were deposited in a western tongue of the latest Tethys Sea as late as Eocene on the western shield and at least as far south as Jiddah. The great harrats of flood basalt erupted on th~ western shield during late Oligocene and early Miocene at the same time a 2,000-kmlong continental rift valley developed along the future Red Sea axis. Within this rift valley, Baid freshwater tuffaceous lakebeds were deposited between mafic and silicic volcanoes. During late early Miocene time, the Red Sea opened at a rate of 4.4 cm/yr in a firststage movement while continental dikes and swarms of oceanic tholeiitic dikes, gabbro, and granophyre plutonic rocks were intruded into the rift sedimentary and volcanic rocks at the newly formed continental margin. The continental margin was deformed and greatly extended at this time. About 14 or 15 m.y., as the first-stage spreading stopped, the Red Sea Escarpment rose; its erosion caused deposition of coarse conglomerate of the Bathan Formation. About 3,000 m of evaporite was deposited on the young Red Sea oceanic crust during the late Miocene desiccation crisis. A second stage of sea-floor spreading about 4-5 m.y. produced the Red Sea axial trough, consisting of oceanic crust, as well as renewed uplift and tilting of the three tectonic provinces in response to compression from counterclockwise rotation against the Dead Sea Rift. This late movement caused widespread major stream capture, especially along the wadis that formerly drained southwesterly or northwesterly, the channels turning westward through narrow gorges to the coastal plain and the Red Sea.

Professional Paper↗

Gas and isotope chemistry of thermal features in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming

This report presents 130 gas analyses and 31 related water analyses on samples collected from thermal features at Yellowstone between 2003 and 2009. An overview of previous studies of gas emissions at Yellowstone is also given. The analytical results from the present study include bulk chemistry of gases and waters and isotope values for water and steam (delta18O, dealtaD), carbon dioxide (delta13C only), methane (delta13C only), helium, neon, and argon. We include appendixes containing photos of sample sites, geographic information system (GIS) files including shape and kml formats, and analytical results in spreadsheets. In addition, we provide a lengthy discussion of previous work on gas chemistry at Yellowstone and a general discussion of the implications of our results. We demonstrate that gases collected from different thermal areas often have distinct chemical signatures, and that differences across the thermal areas are not a simple function of surface temperatures or the type of feature. Instead, gas chemistry and isotopic composition are linked to subsurface lithologies and varying contributions from magmatic, crustal, and meteoric sources.

Wyoming↗

The peregrine falcon in Arizona: Habitat utilization and management recommendations

The peregrine falcon once bred in significant numbers in Arizona. Good documentation is available for specific breeding sites and an additional 20 general locations. This report, based on the published literature, an extensive personal contact survey, an aerial habitat inventory (over 124 hours air time), and ground visits to over 300 locations, provides information on habitat preferences and management practices which can contribute to the bird's survival. In seeking to identify the habitat preferences of the falcon, many site description factors were examined. Those traits which appeared common to most recent Arizona sites (and therefore most useful in evaluating habitat) were: elevation less than 9,000 feet, cliffs tall or very tall, cliffs extensive, topographic relief high, and surface water readily available. All recent sites are in extensive canyon systems or in extensive mountain ranges. Using a habitat evaluation key derived from the traits common to known breeding sites, all cliff regions in Arizona and the Navajo Indian Reservation were flown and evaluated for suitability. Nineteen falcon eyries located in subsequent ground visits were all in areas previously ranked acceptable or better. Many management alternatives are discussed: management of information on breeding sites, habitat preservation, controlling disruptive human activities, and enhancing productivity through the creation of suitable breeding ledges, providing pesticide free prey, or direct reintroductions. Given their privacy (and an increasingly pesticide free environment) the peregrine falcon will likely exist indefinitely in suitable areas across Arizona.

Institute for Raptor Studies Research Reports↗

Nutritional values of waterfowl foods

wetland habitats throughout their annual cycles. Survival, reproduction, and growth are dependent on the availability of foods that meet nutritional requirements for recurring biological events. These requirements occur among a wide variety of environmental conditions that also influence nutritional demands. Recent work on nesting waterfowl has identified the female’s general nutrient needs for egg laying and incubation. Far less is known about nutritional requirements for molt and other portions of the life cycle, particularly those during the nonbreeding season. Although information on specific requirements for amino acids and micronutrients of wild birds is meager, the available information on waterfowl requirements can be used to develop waterfowl management strategies. For example, nutrient content of foods, nutritional requirements of waterfowl, and the cues waterfowl use in locating and selecting foods are all kinds of information that managers need to encourage use of habitats by feeding waterfowl. Waterfowl nutritional needs during the annual cycle and the nutritional values of natural foods and crops will be discussed below.

Fish and Wildlife Leaflet↗

Molecular epidemiology and evolution of fish Novirhabdoviruses

The genus Novirhabdoviridae contains several of the important rhabdoviruses that infect fish hosts. There are four established virus species: Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV), Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV), Hirame rhabdovirus (HIRRV), and Snakehead rhabdovirus (SHRV). Viruses of these species vary in host and geographic range, and they have all been studied at the molecular and genomic level. As globally significant pathogens of cultured fish, IHNV and VHSV have been particularly well studied in terms of molecular epidemiology and evolution. Phylogenic analyses of hundreds of field isolates have defined five major genogroups of IHNV and four major genotypes of VHSV worldwide. These phylogenies are informed by the known histories of IHNV and VHSV, each involving a series of viral emergence events that are sometimes associated with host switches, most often into cultured rainbow trout. In general, IHNV has relatively low genetic diversity and a narrow host range, and has been spread from its endemic source in North American to Europe and Asia due to aquaculture activities. In contrast, VHSV has broad host range and high genetic diversity, and the source of emergence events is virus in widespread marine fish reservoirs in the northern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Common mechanisms of emergence and host switch events include use of raw feed, proximity to wild fish reservoirs of virus, and geographic translocations of virus or naive fish hosts associated with aquaculture.

Book chapter↗

Thresholds for conservation and management: structured decision making as a conceptual framework

A conceptual framework is provided for considering the threshold concept in natural resource management and conservation. We define three kinds of thresholds relevant to management and conservation. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial or specified changes in system dynamics. They are frequently incorporated into ecological models used to project system responses to management actions. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. Decision thresholds are derived from the other components of the decision process.We advocate a structured decision making (SDM) approach within which the following components are identified: objectives (possibly including utility thresholds), potential actions, models (possibly including ecological thresholds), monitoring program, and a solution algorithm (which produces decision thresholds). Adaptive resource management (ARM) is described as a special case of SDM developed for recurrent decision problems that are characterized by uncertainty. We believe that SDM, in general, and ARM, in particular, provide good approaches to conservation and management. Use of SDM and ARM also clarifies the distinct roles of ecological thresholds, utility thresholds, and decision thresholds in informed decision processes.

Book↗

Concordance of seabird population parameters: Analytical methods and interpretation

In an ecological context, concordance may be defined as the tendency for paired values of some parameter, such as the annual productivity of bird species, to show similar directions and magnitudes of deviation from the mean. Where concordance among populations is high, there is an implied similarity of the ecological factors affecting performance. Conversely, if populations behave discordantly, dissimilarity of underlying ecological factors is likely. In evaluating birds as indicators of the marine environment, the biologist typically is confronted with a three-dimensional array of observations (species, areas, and years) in which there are more missing values than filled cells. This frustrates attempts to analyze concordance using existing methods (e.g., Kendall's coefficient, or correlation combined with cluster analysis), which are either impossible to apply to incomplete data sets or potentially misleading when applied to incomplete data sets. I suggest an alternative method for analyzing concordance that makes maximal use of available data. For a given data set partitioned into the smallest units containing information about concordance, one computes an index of concordance using a regression approach and tests for significance using randomization methods. This procedure would seem to have wide application to ecological studies generally and to seabird monitoring in particular.

Conference Paper↗

Synoptic evaluation of scale-dependent metrics for hydrographic line feature geometry

Methods of acquisition and feature simplification for vector feature data impact cartographic representations and scientific investigations of these data, and are therefore important considerations for geographic information science (Haunert and Sester 2008). After initial collection, linear features may be simplified to reduce excessive detail or to furnish a reduced-scale version of the features through cartographic generalization (Regnauld and McMaster 2008, Stanislawski et al. 2014). A variety of algorithms exist to simplify linear cartographic features, and all of the methods affect the positional accuracy of the features (Shahriari and Tao 2002, Regnauld and McMaster 2008, Stanislawski et al. 2012). In general, simplification operations are controlled by one or more tolerance parameters that limit the amount of positional change the operation can make to features. Using a single tolerance value can have varying levels of positional change on features; depending on local shape, texture, or geometric characteristics of the original features (McMaster and Shea 1992, Shahriari and Tao 2002, Buttenfield et al. 2010). Consequently, numerous researchers have advocated calibration of simplification parameters to control quantifiable properties of resulting changes to the features (Li and Openshaw 1990, Raposo 2013, Tobler 1988, Veregin 2000, and Buttenfield, 1986, 1989). This research identifies relations between local topographic conditions and geometric characteristics of linear features that are available in the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD). The NHD is a comprehensive vector dataset of surface 18 th ICA Workshop on Generalisation and Multiple Representation, Rio de Janiero, Brazil 2015 2 water features within the United States that is maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). In this paper, geometric characteristics of cartographic representations for natural stream and river features are summarized for subbasin watersheds within entire regions of the conterminous United States and compared to topographic metrics. A concurrent processing workflow is implemented using a Linux high-performance computing cluster to simultaneously process multiple subbasins, and thereby complete the work in a fraction of the time required for a single-process environment. In addition, similar metrics are generated for several levels of simplification of the hydrographic features to quantify the effects of simplification over the various landscape conditions. Objectives of this exploratory investigation are to quantify geometric characteristics of linear hydrographic features over the various terrain conditions within the conterminous United States and thereby illuminate relations between stream geomorphological conditions and cartographic representation. The synoptic view of these characteristics over regional watersheds that is afforded through concurrent processing, in conjunction with terrain conditions, may reveal patterns for classifying cartographic stream features into stream geomorphological classes. Furthermore, the synoptic measurement of the amount of change in geometric characteristics caused by the several levels of simplification can enable estimation of tolerance values that appropriately control simplification-induced geometric change of the cartographic features within the various geomorphological classes in the country. Hence, these empirically derived rules or relations could help generate multiscale-representations of features through automated generalization that adequately maintain surface drainage variations and patterns reflective of the natural stream geomorphological conditions across the country.

Conference Paper↗