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Modeling vegetation heights from high resolution stereo aerial photography: an application for broad-scale rangeland monitoring

Vertical vegetation structure in rangeland ecosystems can be a valuable indicator for assessing rangeland health and monitoring riparian areas, post-fire recovery, available forage for livestock, and wildlife habitat. Federal land management agencies are directed to monitor and manage rangelands at landscapes scales, but traditional field methods for measuring vegetation heights are often too costly and time consuming to apply at these broad scales. Most emerging remote sensing techniques capable of measuring surface and vegetation height (e.g., LiDAR or synthetic aperture radar) are often too expensive, and require specialized sensors. An alternative remote sensing approach that is potentially more practical for managers is to measure vegetation heights from digital stereo aerial photographs. As aerial photography is already commonly used for rangeland monitoring, acquiring it in stereo enables three-dimensional modeling and estimation of vegetation height. The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility and accuracy of estimating shrub heights from high-resolution (HR, 3-cm ground sampling distance) digital stereo-pair aerial images. Overlapping HR imagery was taken in March 2009 near Lake Mead, Nevada and 5-cm resolution digital surface models (DSMs) were created by photogrammetric methods (aerial triangulation, digital image matching) for twenty-six test plots. We compared the heights of individual shrubs and plot averages derived from the DSMs to field measurements. We found strong positive correlations between field and image measurements for several metrics. Individual shrub heights tended to be underestimated in the imagery, however, accuracy was higher for dense, compact shrubs compared with shrubs with thin branches. Plot averages of shrub height from DSMs were also strongly correlated to field measurements but consistently underestimated. Grasses and forbs were generally too small to be detected with the resolution of the DSMs. Estimates of vertical structure will be more accurate in plots having low herbaceous cover and high amounts of dense shrubs. Through the use of statistically derived correction factors or choosing field methods that better correlate with the imagery, vegetation heights from HR DSMs could be a valuable technique for broad-scale rangeland monitoring needs.

California;Nevada↗

Lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection, microclimate, and nest survival in association with vegetation response to a grassland restoration program

Climate models predict that the region of the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) will experience increased maximum and minimum temperatures, reduced frequency but greater intensity of precipitation events, and earlier springs. These climate changes along with different landscape management techniques may influence the persistence of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act and a priority species under the GPLCC, in positive or negative ways. The objectives of this study were to conduct (1) a literature review of lesser prairie-chicken nesting phenology and ecology, (2) an analysis of thermal aspects of lesser prairie-chicken nest microclimate data, and (3) an analysis of nest site selection, nest survival, and vegetation response to 10 years of tebuthiuron and/or grazing treatments. We found few reports in the literature containing useful data on the nesting phenology of lesser prairie-chickens; therefore, managers must rely on short-term observations and measurements of parameters that provide some predictive insight into climate impacts on nesting ecology. Our field studies showed that prairie-chickens on nests were able to maintain relatively consistent average nest temperature of 31 °C and nest humidities of 56.8 percent whereas average external temperatures (20.3–35.0 °C) and humidities (35.2–74.9 percent) varied widely throughout the 24 hour (hr) cycle. Grazing and herbicide treatments within our experimental areas were designed to be less intensive than in common practice. We determined nest locations by radio-tagging hen lesser prairie-chickens captured at leks, which are display grounds at which male lesser prairie-chickens aggregate and attempt to attract a female for mating. Because nest locations selected by hen lesser prairie-chicken are strongly associated with the lek at which they were captured, we assessed nesting habitat use on the basis of hens captured at individual leks, and then for all leks pooled. There was no clear pattern of selection for treatment type for nest placement among hens associated with individual leks; however, when hens from all leks were pooled, we found nesting lesser prairie-chickens selected control plots for nesting over plots that were grazed, treated with tebuthiuron, or were both grazed and treated with tebuthiuron. Overall, the probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.57 for this study and did not vary significantly among treatment types. In contrast to nesting preference for untreated habitats, lek use exhibited no noticeable selection of treatment type. Over the 10 years of the habitat management study, there was 91 percent less sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) in treated areas than untreated areas. The removal of sand shinnery oak made environmental soil moisture more available for grasses and forbs to germinate and grow. Grasses increased by 149 percent and forbs increased by 257 percent in treated areas as compared to untreated areas throughout the study period. Our combined results, including our habitat selection analysis at the individual lek level, indicated that reduced rates of herbicide and short-duration grazing treatments were not detrimental to nesting lesser prairie-chickens and that populations of lesser prairie-chickens in shrub-dominated ecosystems may benefit from reduced rates of herbicide application and short duration of grazing that results in increased habitat heterogeneity.

New Mexico;Texas↗

USGS Tampa Bay Pilot Study

Many of the nation's estuaries have been environmentally stressed since the turn of the 20th century and will continue to be impacted in the future. Tampa Bay, one the Gulf of Mexico's largest estuaries, exemplifies the threats that our estuaries face (EPA Report 2001, Tampa Bay Estuary Program-Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (TBEP-CCMP)). More than 2 million people live in the Tampa Bay watershed, and the population constitutes to grow. Demand for freshwater resources, conversion of undeveloped areas to resident and industrial uses, increases in storm-water runoff, and increased air pollution from urban and industrial sources are some of the known human activities that impact Tampa Bay. Beginning on 2001, additional anthropogenic modifications began in Tampa Bat including construction of an underwater gas pipeline and a desalinization plant, expansion of existing ports, and increased freshwater withdrawal from three major tributaries to the bay. In January of 2001, the Tampa Bay Estuary Program (TBEP) and its partners identifies a critical need for participation from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in providing multidisciplinary expertise and a regional-scale, integrated science approach to address complex scientific research issue and critical scientific information gaps that are necessary for continued restoration and preservation of Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay stakeholders identified several critical science gaps for which USGS expertise was needed (Yates et al. 2001). These critical science gaps fall under four topical categories (or system components): 1) water and sediment quality, 2) hydrodynamics, 3) geology and geomorphology, and 4) ecosystem structure and function. Scientists and resource managers participating in Tampa Bay studies recognize that it is no longer sufficient to simply examine each of these estuarine system components individually, Rather, the interrelation among system components must be understood to develop conceptual and predictive modeling tools for effective ecosystem adaptive management. As a multidisciplinary organization, the USGS possesses the capability of developing and coordinating an integrated science strategy for estuarine research founded on partnerships and collaborative efforts, multidisciplinary teams of scientists, and integrated field work, data analysis and interpretation, and product development. The primary role of the USGS in Tamps Bay research was defined with our partners based upon this capability to address estuarine issues using an integrated science approach with a regional perspective and within a national context to complement the numerous ongoing scien efforts by state and local agencies that address local issues within Tamp Bay. Six primary components of the USGS Tamp Bay Study address critical gaps within each of the the four estuarine system components and focus on: 1.) Examining how natural and man-made physical changes affect ecosystem health through mapping and modeling. 2.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 3.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 4.) Assessing the natural and man-made changes affecting wetland health and restoration, 5.) Identifying and measuring the impact of urbanization on seafloor habitats, Providing a web-based digital information management system of information for scientists and the public, including a system that supports the work of those officials who must make decisions that affect the state of the bay. The Tampa Bay Study is in its sixth year and will continue through September 2007. This paper presents a non-inclusive summary of key findings associated with the six primary project components listed above. Component 4 (above) is described in detail in the following chapter 13. More information on the Tampa Bay Study is available from our on-line digital information system for the Tampa Bay Study at http://gulfsci.usgs.gov.

Florida↗

Processes affecting the trihalomethane concentrations associated with the third injection, storage, and recovery rest at Lancaster, Antelope Valley, California, March 1998 through April 1999

The formation and fate of trihalomethanes (THM) during the third injection, storage, and recovery test at Lancaster, Antelope Valley, California, were investigated as part of a program to assess the long-term feasibility of using injection, storage, and recovery as a water-supply method and as a way to reduce water-level declines and land-subsidence in the Antelope Valley. The program was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works and the Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency. The water used for injection, storage, and recovery must be disinfected before injection and thus contains THMs and other disinfection by-products. THMs (chloroform, CHCl3, bromodichloromethane, CHCl2Br, dibromochloromethane, CHClBr2, and bromoform, CHBr3) are formed by reaction between natural dissolved organic carbon that is present in water and chlorine that is added during the disinfection step of the drinking water treatment process. THMs are carcinogenic compounds, and their concentrations in drinking water are regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. During previous cycles of the Lancaster program, extracted water still contained measurable concentrations of THMs long after continuous pumping had extracted a greater volume of water than had been injected. This raised concerns about the potential long-term effect of injection, storage, and recovery cycles on ground-water quality in Antelope Valley aquifers. The primary objectives of this investigation were to determine (1) what controlled continued THM formation in the aquifer after injection, (2) what caused of the persistence of THMs in the extracted water, even after long periods of pumping, (3) what controlled the decrease of THM concentrations during the extraction period, and (4) the potential for natural attenuation of THMs in the aquifer. Laboratory experiments on biodegradation of THMs in microcosms of aquifer materials indicate that aquifer bacteria did not degrade CHCl3 or CHBr3 under aerobic conditions, but did degrade CHBr3 under anaerobic conditions. However, the aquifer is naturally aerobic and CHCl3 is the dominant THM species; therefore, biodegradation is not considered an important attenuation mechanism for THMs in this aquifer. The alluvial-fan sediments comprising the aquifer have very low contents of organic matter; therefore, sorption is not considered to be an important attenuation mechanism for THMs in this aquifer. Laboratory experiments on formation of THMs in the injection water indicate that continued THM formation in the injection water after injection into the aquifer was limited by the amount of residual chlorine in the injection water at the time of injection. After accounting for THMs formed by reaction of this residual chlorine, THMs behaved as conservative constituents in the aquifer, and the only process affecting the concentration of THMs was mixing of the injection water and the ground water. The mixing process was quantified using mass balances of injected constituents, the sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer that was added to the injected water, and a simple descriptive mathematical mixing model. Mass balance calculations show that only 67 percent of the injected THMs and chloride were recovered by the time that a volume of water equivalent to 132 percent of the injection water volume was extracted. Pumping 250 percent of the injection water volume only increased recovery of injected THMs to 80 percent. THM and SF6 concentrations in the extracted water decreased concomitantly during the extraction period, and THM concentrations predicted from SF6 concentrations closely matched the measured THM concentrations. Because SF6 is a conservative tracer that was initially only present in the injection water, parallel decreases in SF6 and THM concentrations in the extracted water must be due to dilution of injection water with ground water. The simple descriptive mixing mode

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear regional assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system in 2010 as part of its ongoing regional assessments of groundwater availability of the principal aquifers of the Nation. The goals of this national assessment are to document effects of human activities on water levels and groundwater storage, explore climate variability effects on the regional water budget, and provide consistent and integrated information that is useful to those who use and manage the groundwater resource. As part of this nationwide assessment, the USGS evaluated available groundwater resources within the NACP aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province depends heavily on groundwater to meet agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs. The groundwater assessment of the NACP aquifer system included an evaluation of how water use has changed over time; this evaluation primarily used groundwater budgets and development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends. This assessment focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to examine changes in groundwater pumping, storage, and water levels. The regional scale provides a broad view of the sources and demands on the system with time. The sub-regional scale provides an evaluation of the differing response of the aquifer system across geographic areas allowing for closer examination of the interaction between different aquifers and confining units and the changes in these interactions under pumping and recharge conditions in 2013 and hydrologic stresses as much as 45 years in the future. By focusing on multiple scales, water-resource managers may utilize this study to understand system response to changes as they affect the system as a whole. The NACP aquifer system extends from Long Island to northeastern North Carolina, and includes aquifers primarily within New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province forms a complex groundwater system. Although the NACP aquifer system is recognized by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the smallest of the 66 principal aquifer systems in the Nation, it ranks 13th overall in terms of total groundwater withdrawals and is 7th in population served. Despite abundant precipitation [about 45 inches per year (in/yr)], the supply of fresh surface water in this region is limited because many of the surface waters in this area are brackish estuaries, contributing to why many communities in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province rely heavily on groundwater to meet their water needs. Increases in population and changes in land use during the past 100 years have resulted in diverse increased demands for freshwater throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province with groundwater serving as a vital source of drinking water for the nearly 20 million people who live in the region. Total groundwater withdrawal in 2013 was estimated to be about 1,300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and accounts for about 40 percent of the drinking water supply with the densely populated areas tending to have the highest rates of withdrawals and, therefore, being most susceptible to effects from these withdrawals over time. Water levels in many of the confined aquifers are decreasing by as much as 2 feet per year (ft/yr) in response to extensive development and subsequent increased withdrawals throughout the region. Total water-level decreases (drawdowns) are more than 100 feet (ft) in some aquifers from their predevelopment (before 1900) levels. These drawdowns extend across state lines and under the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, creating the potential for interstate aquifer management issues. Regional water-resources managers in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province face challenges beyond competing local domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands for water. Large changes in regional water use have made the State-level management of aquifer resources more difficult because of hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province is underlain by a wedge of unconsolidated to partially consolidated sediments that are typically thousands of feet thick along the coastline with a maximum thickness of about 10,000 ft near the edge of the continental shelf. The NACP aquifer system consists of nine confined aquifers and nine confining units capped by an unconfined surficial aquifer that is bounded laterally from the west by the contact between Coastal Plain sediments and the upland Piedmont bedrock. This aquifer system extends to the east to the limit of the Continental Shelf, however, the boundary between fresh and saline groundwater is considered to be much closer to the shoreline and varies vertically by aquifer. Precipitation over the region for average conditions from 2005 to 2009 is about 61,800 Mgal/d, but about 70 percent of it is lost to evapotranspiration resulting in an inflow of about 19,600 Mgal/d entering the groundwater system as aquifer recharge. Most of this recharge enters the aquifer system and flows through the shallow unconfined aquifer and either discharges to streams or directly to coastal waters without reaching the deep, confined aquifer system. In addition to recharge from precipitation, other sources of water include the return of wastewater from domestic septic systems of about 240 Mgal/d, about 60 Mgal/d of water released from storage in the confined system, and about 30 Mgal/d of lateral inflow at the boundary between freshwater and saltwater in response to pumping for conditions in 2013. The outflow needed to balance the inflows was subdivided between streamflow, discharge to tidal portions of streams, and coastal discharge. The hydrologic budget developed for current [2013] conditions determined that 93 percent of the total outflow was to surface waters with about 70 percent divided evenly between streamflow and shallow coastal discharge and 23 percent as discharge to tidal waters. The remaining 7 percent of the total outflow components include withdrawals from both the surficial and confined aquifers of the groundwater system. The groundwater availability assessment of the NACP aquifer system highlights the importance of analyses at both the regional and local scales to understand how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected groundwater resources and how these resources may change in the future. The investigation included assessments of the regional changes in water levels and budgets across State lines, the importance of considering storage change in the confining units, the response of the aquifer system to a continuation of current [2013] hydrologic stresses into the future, and the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on the aquifer system. The Potomac aquifer group includes two of the most widely used aquifers in the NACP aquifer system, the Potomac-Patapsco and Potomac-Patuxent regional aquifers, providing about 24 percent of the total groundwater used in the region. Withdrawals from large pumping centers in this deep, confined aquifer group have resulted in substantial decreases in water-levels across state lines, particularly between southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina as well as between southern New Jersey and northern Delaware where water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer have decreased by as much as 200 ft and 50 ft, respectively from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. This response in water levels also is reflected in changes in water budgets where, for example, about 20 percent of the total response to pumping in Virginia is met by inducing flow from adjacent States. Understanding and quantifying these hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries is critical for the State- and regional-level management of aquifer resources. The cumulative storage loss from the intervening confining units throughout the entire NACP aquifer system was about 35 percent of the total storage loss from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. In geographic areas such as Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland, and New Jersey, the water released from storage in the confining units makes up the majority of the total storage release from the groundwater system and is becoming proportionally more important over time as the surficial aquifer approaches equilibrium with respect to pumping and recharge stresses as of 2013. Storage loss from the confining units is of particular concern because, unlike in the sands that comprise the confined aquifers, water removed from the clayey confining unit sediments cannot be replenished as these units gradually compress. This non-recoverable storage loss, if great enough, can result in land subsidence where these units are thick and the release from storage is relatively large and contributes to increased concerns for sea-level rise in areas such as the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater usage increased dramatically in the NACP aquifer system during post-World War II era from the mid-1940s to early the 1980s, with withdrawals increasing from about 400 Mgal/d to more than 1,300 Mgal/d. Although groundwater withdrawals have been relatively constant since the early 1980s, about half of the total groundwater withdrawn from the NACP aquifer system since 1900 was withdrawn in the past 30 years. An analysis of the response of the groundwater system to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping for an additional 30 years into the future shows that the flow system continues to adjust in terms of changes in water budget components, water levels, and the boundary between freshwater and saltwater as it approaches equilibrium. The largest change in water budget components is the reduction in the amount of water released from storage. Across the entire NACP aquifer system, the reduction of storage release from 7 to 4 percent of the total water budget change is accounted for by reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and coastal waters. Locally, a similar response is calculated for each of the geographic areas except for Virginia where the amount of water released from storage accounts for about 25 percent of the total change in water budget. This finding suggests that the groundwater flow system in Virginia is not approaching equilibrium under the current [2013] stresses and, therefore, water levels will continue to decrease even if the pumping remains constant. An analysis of the change in water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer as pumping is continued 30 years into the future reveals that the largest decreases in water levels throughout the NACP aquifer system will occur in the southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina parts of the study area. It is these areas that also see the greatest potential for increased lateral movement of saline groundwater in the deep, confined portion of the groundwater flow system in response to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping rates. The potential effects of long-term climate change and variability on the hydrologic system and availability of water resources in the NACP aquifer system continue to be of serious societal concern. These concerns include the effects of changes in aquifer recharge and in sea-level rise on the groundwater flow system. An assessment of the potential effects of a prolonged drought during current [2013] pumping conditions indicated that the reductions in recharge associated with droughts, including additional irrigation withdrawals required to meet increased crop water demand, have the greatest effects on water levels and streamflows in the surficial aquifer, and changes in water levels in the confined aquifers primarily resulted from the increased withdrawals associated with increased irrigation pumping; this response was most apparent in the Delmarva Peninsula. These results suggest that water levels may not be susceptible to the effects of droughts in the confined aquifers of the NACP aquifer system not used for irrigation, unlike in the unconfined surficial aquifer. A second analysis also was conducted to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province because recent analyses of the relative rates of sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast indicate that the Mid-Atlantic region represents a hot spot with anomalously higher rates of sea-level rise than observed elsewhere in the United States. Groundwater levels rose from 0 to 3 ft in response to a 3-ft simulated change in sea-level position, with the largest response occurring along the shoreline and away from non-tidal streams. About 37 percent (or 10,000 square miles) of the area of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience about a 0.5-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position, whereas about 18 percent (almost 5,000 square miles) of land of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience a 2-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position. These increases in the water table are of particular concern in low-lying areas where the unsaturated (vadose) zone is already thin, thus creating concerns for groundwater inundation of subsurface infrastructure, such as basements, septic systems, and subway systems. This increase in the water table also will likely alter the distribution of groundwater discharge to surface-water bodies thus increasing groundwater flow to streams that would have otherwise discharged directly to coastal waters. Throughout the NACP aquifer system, this redistribution of groundwater discharge results in an additional 2 percent of base flow in streams. Although the increases in groundwater discharge to streams (and corresponding decreases in discharge to coastal waters) calculated for the entire NACP aquifer system and its geographic areas represent only a small increase compared with current [2013] conditions, this redistribution of groundwater discharge from the coast to streams locally can alter the delivery of freshwater input to coastal receiving waters and have ecohydrological implications on the sensitive ecosystems which rely on a balance of groundwater discharge and surface-water flow.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

Aquatic assessment of the Ely Copper Mine Superfund site, Vershire, Vermont

The Ely Mine, which operated from 1821 to 1905, and its area of downstream impact constitute the Ely Copper Mine Superfund site. The site was placed on the National Priorities List in 2001. The mine comprises underground workings, foundations from historical structures, several waste-rock piles, roast beds associated with the smelting operation, and slag piles resulting from the smelting. The mine site is drained by Ely Brook, which includes several tributaries, one of which drains a series of six ponds. Ely Brook empties into Schoolhouse Brook, which flows 3.3 kilometers and joins the Ompompanoosuc River. The aquatic ecosystem at the site was assessed using a variety of approaches that investigated surface-water quality, sediment quality, and various ecological indicators of stream-ecosystem health. The degradation of surface-water quality is dominated by copper with localized effects caused by iron, aluminum, cadmium, and zinc. Chronic water-quality criteria for copper are exceeded in the surface water of four of the six ponds on the Ely Brook tributary, and all of Ely Brook and Schoolhouse Brook, and of the Ompompanoosuc River downstream of the confluence with Schoolhouse Brook. Comparison of hardness-based and Biotic Ligand Model-based water-quality criteria for copper yields similar results with respect to extent of impairment. However, the Biotic Ligand Model criteria are mostly lower than the hardness-based criteria and thus suggest a greater degree of impairment, particularly in the Ely Brook watershed, where dissolved organic carbon concentrations and pH values are lower. Surface-water toxicity testing correlates strongly with the extent of impact. Likewise, riffle-habitat benthic invertebrate richness and abundance data support these results through the stream environment. Similarly, the index of biotic integrity for the fish community in Schoolhouse Brook and the Ompompanoosuc River document degraded habitats throughout Schoolhouse Brook from Ely Brook down to the Ompompanoosuc River. The sediment environment shows similar extents of impairment also dominated by copper, although localized degradation due to chromium, nickel, lead, and zinc was documented on the basis of probable effects concentrations. In contrast, equilibrium-partitioning sediment benchmarks indicate no toxic effects would be expected in sediments at the reference sites, and uncertain toxic effects throughout Ely Brook and Schoolhouse Brook, except for the reference sites and site EB-600M. The results for site EB-600M indicate predicted toxic effects. Acute toxicity testing of in situ pore waters using Hyalella azteca indicates severe impacts in Ely Brook reaching 100 percent lethality at site EB-90M. Acute toxicity testing of in situ pore waters using Chironomus dilutus shows similar, but not as severe, toxicity. Neither set of in situ pore-water toxicity tests showed significant impairment in Schoolhouse Brook or the Ompompanoosuc River. Chronic sediment toxicity testing using Hyalella azteca indicated significant toxicity in Ely Brook, except at site EB-90M, and in Schoolhouse Brook. The low toxicity of EB-90M may be a reflection of the low lability of copper in that sediment as indicated by a low proportion of extractable copper (1.1 percent). Depositional-targeted habitat invertebrate richness and abundance data support these conclusions for the entire watershed, as do the index of biotic integrity data from the fish community. The information was used to develop an overall assessment of the impact on the aquatic system that appears to be a result of the acid rock drainage at the Ely Mine. More than 700 meters of Ely Brook, including two of the six ponds, were found to be severely impacted, on the basis of water-quality data and biological assessments. The reference location was of good quality based on the water quality and biological assessment. More than 3,125 meters of Schoolhouse Brook are also severely impacted, on the basis of water-quality data and biological assessments. The biological community begins to recover near the confluence with the Ompompanoosuc River. The evidence is less conclusive regarding the Ompompanoosuc River. The sediment data suggest that the sediments could be a source of toxicity in Ely Brook and Schoolhouse Brook. The surface-water assessment is consistent with the outcome of a surface-water toxicity testing program performed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for Ely Brook and Schoolhouse Brook and a surface-water toxicity testing program and in situ amphibian testing program for the ponds.

Vermont↗

Hydrogeology and water quality of the Floridan aquifer system and effect of Lower Floridan aquifer pumping on the Upper Floridan aquifer at Hunter Army Airfield, Chatham County, Georgia

Test drilling and field investigations, conducted at Hunter Army Airfield (HAAF), Chatham County, Georgia, during 2009, were used to determine the geologic, hydraulic, and water-quality characteristics of the Floridan aquifer system and to evaluate the effect of Lower Floridan aquifer (LFA) pumping on the Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA). Field investigation activities included (1) constructing a 1,168-foot (ft) test boring and well completed in the LFA, (2) collecting drill cuttings and borehole geophysical logs, (3) collecting core samples for analysis of vertical hydraulic conductivity and porosity, (4) conducting flowmeter and packer tests in the open borehole within the UFA and LFA, (5) collecting depth-integrated water samples to assess basic ionic chemistry of various water-bearing zones, and (6) conducting aquifer tests in the new LFA well and in an existing UFA well to determine hydraulic properties and assess interaquifer leakage. Using data collected at the site and in nearby areas, model simulation was used to quantify the effects of interaquifer leakage on the UFA and to determine the amount of pumping reduction required in the UFA to offset drawdown resulting from the leakage. Borehole-geophysical and flowmeter data indicate the LFA at HAAF consists of limestone and dolomitic limestone between depths of 703 and 1,080 ft, producing water from six major permeable zones: 723-731; 768-785; 818-837; 917-923; 1,027-1,052; and 1,060-1,080 ft. Data from a flowmeter survey, conducted at a pumping rate of 748 gallons per minute (gal/min), suggest that the two uppermost zones contributed 469 gal/min or 62.6 percent of the total flow during the test. The remaining four zones contributed from 1.7 to 18 percent of the total flow. Grab water samples indicate that with the exception of fluoride, constituent concentrations in the LFA increased with depth; water from the deepest interval (1,075 ft) contained chloride and sulfate concentrations of 480 and 240 milligrams per liter (mg/L), respectively. These relatively high concentrations were interpreted to have little effect on the overall quality of the well because flowmeter results indicated that water from 1,060 to 1,080 ft contributed less than 2 percent of the total flow to the completed well. Results of a 72-hour aquifer test indicate that pumping a LFA well at a rate of 748 gal/min produced a drawdown response of 0.76 ft in a well completed in the UFA located 176 ft from the pumped well. A revised regional groundwater-flow model was used to simulate long-term (steady-state) leakage response of the UFA to pumping from the LFA and to estimate the equivalent amount of pumping from the UFA that would produce similar drawdown. Pumping the well at a rate of 748 gal/min (about 1 million gallons per day [Mgal/d]) resulted in a maximum simulated steady-state drawdown of 36.2 ft in the LFA and was greater than 1 ft over a 146 square-mile area. Simulated steady-state drawdown in the overlying UFA that resulted from interaquifer leakage was greater than 1 ft over a 141 square-mile area and was 2.03 ft at the pumped well. Flow to the pumped well was derived from increased lateral flow across the specified-head boundary (0.02 Mgal/d) and increased leakage from the UFA (0.52 Mgal/d), and by reductions in discharge to the Lower Floridan confining unit (0.53 Mgal/d) and to the lateral specified-head boundary (0.53 Mgal/d). Sixty-five percent of the leakage from the UFA occurred within 1 mile of the pumped well. This larger contribution results from a larger head gradient between the pumped well and the overlying aquifer in areas close to the pumped well. The Georgia Environmental Protection Division interim permitting strategy for the LFA requires simulation of (1) aquifer leakage from the UFA to LFA resulting from pumping the new LFA well, and (2) the equivalent rate of UFA pumping that induces the identical maximum drawdown in the UFA that would be expected as a result of pumping th

Georgia↗

Genetic integrity, population status, and long-term viability of isolated populations of shoal bass in the upper Chattahoochee River basin, Georgia

This report characterizes the status of multiple isolated Shoal Bass ( Micropterus cataractae ) populations in the upper Chattahoochee River basin (UCRB), Georgia. The Shoal Bass, a sport fish endemic to the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River (ACF) basin, is a fluvial-specialist species considered vulnerable to local extirpations and extinction due to habitat fragmentation and introgression with non-native congeners. Perhaps one of the most isolated populations of Shoal Bass exists in a 2-km reach of Big Creek, a tributary of the Chattahoochee River located near Roswell, Georgia. Big Creek is partially contained within the Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area, although the Big Creek watershed is riddled with urban land cover. Roswell Mill Dam limits the upstream extent of the Shoal Bass population at Big Creek, and the downstream extent is presumably limited to the confluence of Big Creek and the Chattahoochee River. This reach of the Chattahoochee River is thermally depressed because of coldwater releases from Lake Lanier, and is considered unsuitable for Shoal Bass. Herein, we examine the genetic integrity, population status, and long-term viability of the Shoal Bass population in Big Creek. We also examine two additional Shoal Bass populations that occur in the UCRB, specifically the Chestatee River and the upper Chattahoochee River, both of which are impounded at Lake Lanier. Together, the Shoal Bass inhabiting these three stream systems comprise a distinct genetic stock of Shoal Bass (Taylor 2017), underscoring the importance of conserving these populations towards maintaining the overall diversity and adaptive potential of the species. We assessed genetic diversity and estimated effective population sizes within these three rivers by genotyping fish with 16 microsatellite DNA markers. Results demonstrated that the Shoal Bass population in Big Creek has experienced high rates of introgression with non-native Smallmouth Bass (M. dolomieu), purportedly introduced into the Chattahoochee River in the past 10-15 years. Alarmingly, only 24% (15 of 62) of putative Shoal Bass collected from Big Creek were genetically pure Shoal Bass, whereas the majority of fish were first-filial (F1) generation hybrids and unidirectional backcrosses towards Shoal Bass. Fleeting opportunity may remain to conserve the native genome of the Shoal Bass population in Big Creek. High hybridization rates prevented genetic diversity analysis for the Big Creek population. Shoal Bass populations in the Chestatee and Chattahoochee rivers displayed levels of genetic diversity similar to populations that persist in other rivers in the ACF basin, namely the Flint and Chipola rivers. Effective population sizes of 93.8– 197.4 for the Chestatee and Chattahoochee rivers (combined) suggest that the conservation status of these populations is stable for the short-term, but may be at risk of losing genetic diversity and adaptive potential in the long-term. To estimate age and mortality of the three populations, we used fish scales and capture-markrecapture (CMR) as complementary, non-lethal methods for age estimation. Estimated ages of phenotypic Shoal Bass ranged from 1-12 years in all three populations, demonstrating increased longevity compared to populations elsewhere within the native range. Catch-curve estimates of annual mortality ranged from 18.4-23.7%, which are markedly lower than those observed in other Shoal Bass populations in the ACF basin. These differences in life-history characteristics underscore the need for the development of population-specific management and conservation strategies for Shoal Bass in the UCRB. The lowest recruitment variability (i.e., the variation in year-class strength) was observed in the Chestatee River, a forested watershed, whereas the highest variability was observed in Big Creek, an urbanized watershed. Recruitment strength in Big Creek was negatively influenced by discharge variability in the summer months, suggesting that flashy, sediment-laden flows hinder survival of recently hatched young. Other statistically significant models from Big Creek and the Chattahoochee River indicated that over-winter survival could be an important pinch-point for recruitment in UCRB populations. A multi-agency sampling effort was conducted from May 2013-May 2016 to estimate the population size of Shoal Bass occupying the 1-km of wadeable shoal habitats in Big Creek. Using CMR models, we estimated that approximately 219-348 Shoal Bass (≥ 70 mm total length) occupied the area throughout the duration of our study. These estimates largely reflect abundance of individuals aged 0-2 years, as only 9% (36 of 408) tagged fish were aged ≥ 7 years. Local abundance appeared similar to that reported for a population that inhabited Little Uchee Creek, a similar-sized tributary of the Chattahoochee River, prior to its recent functional extirpation. The low abundance of large, adult Shoal Bass further suggests the long-term viability of the Big Creek population may be in jeopardy. Perhaps most importantly, CMR estimates reflect abundance of phenotypic Shoal Bass – genetic analyses suggest the abundance of pure Shoal Bass could be an order of magnitude smaller. To evaluate the potential for adult Shoal Bass to emigrate from Big Creek into the mainstem Chattahoochee River, we tagged eight adults with acoustic telemetry tags and assessed their seasonal residency at two stationary receiver locations located in increasing proximity to the confluence with the Chattahoochee River. Fish took up residency near the confluence during the fall and winter months, during which time water temperatures in Big Creek were periodically colder than the Chattahoochee River. Although we were unable to document emigration, we conclude that the potential for emigration is highest during the winter months when the Chattahoochee River may be warmer than Big Creek. Two of the tagged fish were caught by anglers near the confluence, suggesting that angling pressure at Big Creek may be higher than previously suspected. Overall, this study observed unique life-history characteristics and characterized the population status of multiple Shoal Bass populations in the UCRB. Populations in the Chestatee and Chattahoochee rivers appear stable at present and likely represent the last remaining strongholds for pure Shoal Bass in the UCRB. Efforts to preserve forested watershed conditions, natural hydrology, and shoal habitats would contribute to the long-term persistence of Shoal Bass populations in these two rivers. Additionally, the detection of non-native Alabama Bass and their associated hybrids in both rivers is cause for concern. Diligent monitoring of hybridization dynamics between Alabama Bass and Shoal Bass is warranted, along with an assessment of Alabama Bass invasion extent upstream of Lake Lanier. The Shoal Bass population in Big Creek is threatened by elevated levels of introgression with nonnative Smallmouth Bass, recruitment variability, low abundance of adults, and isolation from other populations. Conservation intervention is urgently needed to restore and preserve this genetically distinct population, which would contribute to preservation of range wide genetic diversity and adaptability of the species. Additionally, an urban sport fishery for Shoal Bass at Big Creek has the potential to serve as a tool for increasing public awareness, engagement, and support of Shoal Bass conservation efforts in the UCRB. We suggest strategies for conservation of the remnant shoal habitats and Shoal Bass population in Big Creek, including potential development of a supplemental stocking program, selective removal of non-native congeners, and delivery of environmental education programs that could bolster awareness and appreciation.

Georgia↗

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts

Background Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species’ ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. Methods We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? Review findings We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). Conclusions Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

Journal of Environmental Evidence↗

Hydrogeologic and geochemical characterization of groundwater resources in Rush Valley, Tooele County, Utah

The water resources of Rush Valley were assessed during 2008–2010 with an emphasis on refining the understanding of the groundwater-flow system and updating the groundwater budget. Surface-water resources within Rush Valley are limited and are generally used for agriculture. Groundwater is the principal water source for most other uses including supplementing irrigation. Most groundwater withdrawal in Rush Valley is from the unconsolidated basin-fill aquifer where conditions are generally unconfined near the mountain front and confined at lower altitudes near the valley center. Productive aquifers also occur in fractured bedrock along the valley margins and beneath the basin-fill deposits in some areas. Drillers’ logs and geophysical gravity data were compiled and used to delineate seven hydrogeologic units important to basin-wide groundwater movement. The principal basin-fill aquifer includes the unconsolidated Quaternary-age alluvial and lacustrine deposits of (1) the upper basin-fill aquifer unit (UBFAU) and the consolidated and semiconsolidated Tertiary-age lacustrine and alluvial deposits of (2) the lower basin-fill aquifer unit (LBFAU). Bedrock hydrogeologic units include (3) the Tertiary-age volcanic unit (VU), (4) the Pennsylvanian- to Permian-age upper carbonate aquifer unit (UCAU), (5) the upper Mississippian- to lower Pennsylvanian-age upper siliciclastic confining unit (USCU), (6) the Middle Cambrian- to Mississippian-age lower carbonate aquifer unit (LCAU), and (7) the Precambrian- to Lower Cambrian-age noncarbonate confining unit (NCCU). Most productive bedrock wells in the Rush Valley groundwater basin are in the UCAU. Average annual recharge to the Rush Valley groundwater basin is estimated to be about 39,000 acre-feet. Nearly all recharge occurs as direct infiltration of snowmelt and rainfall within the mountains with smaller amounts occurring as infiltration of streamflow and unconsumed irrigation water at or near the mountain front. Groundwater generally flows from the higher altitude recharge areas toward two distinct valley-bottom discharge areas: one in the vicinity of Rush Lake in northern Rush Valley and the other located west and north of Vernon. Average annual discharge from the Rush Valley groundwater basin is estimated to be about 43,000 acre-feet. Most discharge occurs as evapotranspiration in the valley lowlands, as discharge to springs and streams, and as withdrawal from wells. Subsurface discharge outflow to Tooele and Cedar Valleys makes up only a small fraction of natural discharge. Groundwater samples were collected from 25 sites (24 wells and one spring) for geochemical analysis. Dissolved-solids concentrations in water from these sites ranged from 181 to 1,590 milligrams per liter. Samples from seven wells contained arsenic concentrations that exceed the Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Level of 10 micrograms per liter. The highest arsenic levels are found north of Vernon and in southeastern Rush Valley. Stable-isotope ratios of oxygen and deuterium, along with dissolved-gas recharge temperatures, indicate that nearly all modern groundwater is meteoric and derived from the infiltration of high altitude precipitation in the mountains. These data are consistent with recharge estimates made using a Basin Characterization Model of net infiltration that shows nearly all recharge occurring as infiltration of precipitation and snowmelt within the mountains surrounding Rush Valley. Tritium concentrations between 0.4 and 10 tritium units indicate the presence of modern (less than 60 years old) groundwater at 7 of the 25 sample sites. Apparent 3 H/ 3 He ages, calculated for six of these sites, range from 3 to 35 years. Adjusted minimum radiocarbon ages of premodern water samples range from about 1,600 to 42,000 years with samples from 11 of 13 sites being more than 11,000 years. These data help to identify areas where modern groundwater is circulating through the hydrologic system on time scales of decades or less and indicate that large parts of the principal basin-fill and the bedrock aquifers are much less active and receive little to no modern recharge.

Utah↗

Hydrogeologic framework, arsenic distribution, and groundwater geochemistry of the glacial-sediment aquifer at the Auburn Road landfill superfund site, Londonderry, New Hampshire

Leachate continues to be generated from landfills at the Auburn Road Landfill Superfund Site in Londonderry, New Hampshire. Impermeable caps on the three landfills at the site inhibit direct infiltration of precipitation; however, high water-table conditions allow groundwater to interact with landfill materials from below, creating leachate and ultimately reducing conditions in downgradient groundwater. Reducing conditions can facilitate arsenic transport by allowing it to stay in solution or by liberating arsenic adsorbed to surfaces and from geologic sources, such as glacial sediments and bedrock. The site occupies a 180-acre parcel of land containing streams, ponds, wetlands, and former gravel pits located in glacial sediment. Four areas, totaling 14 acres, including three landfills and one septage lagoon, were used for waste disposal. The site was closed in 1980 after volatile organic compounds associated with industrial waste dumping were detected. The site was added to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Priority List in 1982, and the landfills were capped in 1996. Although volatile organic compound concentrations in groundwater have declined substantially, some measurable concentrations remain. Temporally variable and persistent elevated arsenic concentrations have been measured in groundwater affected by the landfill leachate. Microbial consumption of carbon found in leachate is a driver of reducing conditions that liberate arsenic at the site. In addition to sources of carbon in landfill leachate, wetland areas throughout the site also could contribute carbon to groundwater, but it is currently unknown if any of the wetland areas have downward or reversing gradients that could allow the infiltration of surface water to groundwater. Red-stained sediments and water indicate iron-rich groundwater discharge to surface water and are also associated with elevated concentrations of arsenic in sediment and groundwater. Ironrich groundwater seeps have been observed in the wetland, streams, and pond downgradient of the landfills. Piezometers were installed in some of these locations to confirm groundwater discharge, measure vertical-flow gradients, and to provide a way to sample the discharging groundwater. Understanding the movement of leachate in groundwater is complicated by the presence of preferential flow paths through aquifer materials with differing hydraulic properties; these preferential flow paths can affect rates of recharge, geochemical conditions, and contaminant fluxes. In areas adjacent to the three capped landfills, infiltration of precipitation containing oxygenated water through permeable deltaic sediments in the former gravel pit area causes increases in dissolved oxygen concentrations and decreases in arsenic concentrations. Layered deltaic sediments produce anisotropic hydraulic characteristics and zones of high hydraulic conductivity. The glacial-sediment aquifer also includes glaciolacustrine sediments that have low permeability and limit infiltration at the surface Discharge of leachate-affected groundwater may be limited in areas of organic muck on the bottom of Whispering Pines Pond because the muck may act as a semiconfining layer. Geophysical survey results were used to identify several areas with continuous beds of muck and an underlying highresistivity layer on top of a layer of low resistivity that may represent leachate-affected groundwater. The high-resistivity layer is likely groundwater associated with oxygenated recharge, which would cause arsenic to adsorb onto aquifer sediments and reduce concentrations of dissolved arsenic in groundwater. Surface and borehole geophysical data collected in 2011 were used to identify potentially high-permeability or contaminated zones in the aquifer (preferential flowpaths) as well as low-permeability zones that may promote contamination through back diffusion. Some groundwater in parts of the glacial-sediment aquifer where the leachate plumes were present had low electrical resistivity, low dissolved oxygen, and high concentrations of arsenic. Low-resistivity zones in the underlying bedrock were associated with fractures that also may contain leachate. Although surveying the fractured bedrock was not a specific objective of this study, the results suggest that such a survey would help to determine if leachate and associated concentrations of arsenic are migrating downward into the fractured-bedrock-aquifer system. An uncalibrated, one-dimensional, reactive-transport model was used to assess several conditions that affect arsenic mobility. The results indicate that reductive dissolution and desorption from glacial sediments control dissolved arsenic concentrations. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify key data that are needed in order to accurately assess the time required for arsenic concentrations to fall to levels below the maximum contaminant level at the site. Quantifying this time will require accurate characterization of carbon, sediment-surface sorption sites, and groundwater fluxes at the site.

New Hampshire↗

Potential Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario in California: Chapter F in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

The California Tsunami Scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical, yet plausible, tsunami caused by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula. In this chapter, we interpret plausible tsunami-related contamination, environmental impacts, potential for human exposures to contaminants and hazardous materials, and implications for remediation and recovery. Inundation-related damages to major ports, boat yards, and many marinas could release complex debris, crude oil, various fuel types and other petroleum products, some liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo, and diverse other pollutants into nearby coastal marine environments and onshore in the inundation zone. Tsunami-induced erosion of contaminated harbor bottom sediments could re-expose previously sequestered metal and organic pollutants (for example, organotin or DDT). Inundation-related damage to many older buildings could produce debris containing lead paint, asbestos, pesticides, and other legacy contaminants. Intermingled household debris and externally derived debris and sediments would be left in flooded buildings. Post tsunami, mold would likely develop in inundated houses, buildings, and debris piles. Tsunamigenic fires in spilled oil, debris, cargo, vehicles, vegetation, and residential, commercial, or industrial buildings and their contents would produce potentially toxic gases and smoke, airborne ash, and residual ash/debris containing caustic alkali solids, metal toxicants, asbestos, and various organic toxicants. Inundation of and damage to wastewater treatment plants in many coastal cities could release raw sewage containing fecal solids, pathogens, and waste chemicals, as well as chemicals used to treat wastewaters. Tsunami-related physical damages, debris, and contamination could have short- and longer-term impacts on the environment and the health of coastal marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Marine habitats in intertidal zones, marshes, sloughs, and lagoons could be damaged by erosion or sedimentation, and could receive an influx of debris, metal and organic contaminants, and sewage-related pathogens. Debris and re-exposed contaminated sediments would be a source of sea- or rain-water-leachable metal and organic contaminants that could pose chronic toxicity threats to ecosystems. If human populations are successfully evacuated prior to the tsunami arrival, there would be no or limited numbers of drownings, other casualties, or related injuries, wounds, and infections. Immediately after the tsunami, human populations away from the inundation zone could be transiently exposed to airborne gases, smoke, and ash from tsunamigenic fires. Cleanup and disposal, particularly of hazardous materials, would pose substantial logistical challenges and economic costs. Given the high value of the coastal residential and commercial properties in the inundation zone, it can be postulated that there would be substantial insurance claims for environmental restoration, mold mitigation, disposal of debris that contains hazardous materials, and costs of litigation related to environmental liability. Post-tsunami cleanup, if done with appropriate mitigation (for example, dust control), personal protection, and disposal measures, would help reduce the potential for cleanup-worker and resident exposures to toxicants and pathogens in harbor waters, debris, soils, ponded waters, and buildings. A number of other steps can be taken by governments, businesses, and residents to help reduce the environmental impacts of tsunamis and to recover more quickly from these environmental impacts. For example, development of State and local policies that foster rapid assessment of potential contamination, as well as rapid decision making for disposal options should hazardous debris or sediment be identified, would help enhance recovery by speeding cleanup.

California↗

Sea lamprey mark type, wounding rate, and parasite-host preference and abundance relationships for lake trout and other species in Lake Ontario

We examined how the frequency of attacks by Sea Lamprey on fishes in Lake Ontario varied in response to Sea Lamprey abundance and preferred host abundance (Lake Trout >432mm). For this analysis we assembled seven data sets. Two fishery independent surveys for Lake Trout: US Geological Survey (USGS)/New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) south shore September gillnet assessment of adult Lake Trout (USGS/NYSDEC SGNS)( Lantry and Lantry 2011); and Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR) monthly June-November community index gillnetting in northeastern Lake Ontario (OMNR CIS) (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources 2011). One angler survey: NYSDEC April-September Fishing Boat Survey data collected along the south shore for Chinook and Coho salmon, and Rainbow and Brown trout (NYSDEC FBS) ( Lantry and Eckert 2012). Two spawning run datasets: OMNR north shore data including spring spawning runs of Rainbow Trout in the Ganaraska River and electroshocking data for fall spawning runs of Chinook and Coho salmon in the Credit River (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources 2011); and NYSDEC data from the Salmon River on the southeastern shore including October spawning runs of Chinook and Coho salmon. One Sea Lamprey spawning survey: Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO)/US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) data for spawning-phase Sea Lamprey abundance collected from known spawning streams distributed throughout the Lake Ontario drainage basin (Mullet et al. 2003). One assessment of the abundance of dead Lake Trout: USGS/NYSDEC October-November bottom trawl collection of Lake Trout carcasses (Schneider et al. 1996). Annual patterns in A1, A2 and A3 wound stages did not track well in plots of wounding rates for the USGS/NYSDEC SGNS and correlations between A1 and later stages did not exist. A1 rates were not correlated to either Lake Trout abundance or Sea Lamprey numbers when considered alone, but were strongly correlated to the ratio between Sea Lamprey numbers and Lake Trout abundance (parasite/host ratio). While A2 and A3 rates were correlated to each other, neither was consistently correlated to any of the Lake Trout abundance or Sea Lamprey abundance parameters and sums of A1 to A3 rates did not improve correlations over those for A1 rates considered alone. Our analysis of the strain-specific susceptibility of Lake Trout to attack by Sea Lampreys extended the previous Schneider et al. (1996) analysis of three strains (SUP, CWL, and SEN) and 11 years of data 1982-1992 to an analysis of seven strains (SUP, CWL, SEN, JEN, LEW, ONT, and OXS) and two groups of unmarked fish (1983-1995 and 1996-2010) and included 18 more years of data through 2010. The susceptibility to attack for CWLs and SENs were below SUPs and nearly identical to the earlier values, new values for LEWs were greater than SUPS and values of unmarked Lake Trout prior to 1996 were unexpectedly greater than SUPs. By reexamining the Schneider et al. (1996) regression relationship between A1 wounding on Lake Trout and the incidence of Lake Trout carcasses recovered in fall bottom trawls (including three additional years of data), and substituting A1 wounding rate for total numbers of A1s observed which was used as the independent variable in the previous version, we were able to increase the variance explained by the relationship from an r2 of 0.60 to 0.88. Healing rate of wounds was explored by examining the monthly incidence of A1 and A2 wounds on Lake Trout from the OMNR CIS. Because wounding intensity varied between years and monthly sample size was frequently low, the ratio of A2 to A1s wounds was used to index how wounds accumulated or disappeared from the Lake Trout populations across seasons. The A2/A1 ratio decreased between June/July and October. A simple wounding model for Lake Trout was constructed to simulate the pattern of ratios by inflicting wounds on the population each month according to a predetermined distribution and including parameters for lethality (fixed distribution) and healing rate of A1 and A2 wounds (discretely varied between simulations). The best simulated representation (ratio size and monthly pattern) of the OMNR CIS data came from an A1 healing rate of 0.5 months and an A2 rate of 2 months. To examine whether alternate hosts provided reliable data to index damage caused by Sea Lampreys we compared September values of abundance and A1 wounding rates on Lake Trout, Sea Lamprey abundance, and the parasite/host ratio with NYSDEC Creel data for observations of Sea lampreys attached to sport-caught salmonids and to wounding observations for salmonids sampled in OMNR and NYSDEC spawning run assessments. Attachment frequency on NYSDEC Creel Chinook Salmon, Brown Trout, and Rainbow Trout were strongly correlated to all measures of Lake Trout abundance and wounding and to the parasite/host ratio. Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon wounding observations for the NYSDEC Salmon River spawning run assessments and Rainbow Trout from the OMNR Ganaraska River spawning run assessment were strongly correlated to wounding measures for nearly all salmonids and to the parasite/host ratio.

Lake Ontario↗

Nutrients in streams and rivers across the nation — 1992–2001

Nutrient compounds of nitrogen and phosphorus were investigated in streams and rivers sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Nutrient data were collected in 20 NAWQA study units during 1992-95, 16 study units during 1996-98, and 15 study units during 1999-2001. To facilitate comparisons among sampling sites with variable sampling frequency, daily loads were determined by using regression models that relate constituent transport to streamflow and time. Model results were used to compute mean annual loads, yields, and concentrations of ammonia, nitrate, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus, which were compared among stream and river sampling sites. Variations in the occurrence and distribution of nutrients in streams and rivers on a broad national scale reflect differences in the sources of nutrient inputs to the upstream watersheds and in watershed characteristics that affect movement of those nutrients. Sites were classified by watershed size and by land use in the upstream watershed: agriculture, urban, and undeveloped (forest or rangeland). Selection of NAWQA urban sites was intended to avoid effects of major wastewater-treatment plants and other point sources, but in some locations this was not feasible. Nutrient concentrations and yields generally increased with anthropogenic development in the watershed. Median concentrations and yields for all constituents at sites downstream from undeveloped areas were less than at sites downstream from agricultural or urban areas. Concentrations of ammonia, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus at agricultural and urban sites were not significantly different; however, concentrations of nitrate and total nitrogen were higher at agricultural than at urban sites. Total nitrogen concentrations at agricultural sites were higher in areas of high nitrogen input or enhanced transport, such as irrigation or artificial drainage that can rapidly move water from cropland to streams (Midwest, Northern Plains, and western areas of the United States). Concentrations were lower in the Southeast, where more denitrification occurs during transport of nitrogen compounds in shallow ground water. At urban sites, high concentrations of ammonia and orthophosphate were more prevalent downstream from wastewater-treatment plants. At sites with large watersheds and high mean-annual streamflow (“large-watershed” sites), concentrations of most nutrients were significantly less than at sites downstream from agricultural or urban areas. Total nitrogen concentrations at large-watershed sites were higher in Midwest agricultural areas and lower in the Western United States, where agricultural and urban development is less extensive. Total phosphorus concentrations at large-watershed sites were higher in areas of greater potential erosion and low overall runoff such as the arid areas in the West. Although not as distinct as seasonal patterns of streamflow, geographic patterns of seasonally high and low concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were identified in the data. Seasonal patterns in concentrations of total nitrogen generally mirror seasonal patterns in streamflow in the humid Eastern United States but are inverse to seasonal patterns in streamflow in the semiarid interior West. Total phosphorus concentrations typically have the opposite regional relation with streamflow; high concentrations coincide with high streamflows in the interior West. In the NAWQA Program, sites downstream from relatively undeveloped areas were selected to provide a baseline for comparison to sites with potential effects of urban development and agriculture. Concentrations of nitrate, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus at NAWQA undeveloped sites were found to be greater than values reported by other studies for conditions of essentially no development (background conditions). Concentrations at NAWQA undeveloped sites represent conditions of relatively little development and provide insight in comparison to developed areas but should not, in general, be considered to represent background status. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has developed nutrient criteria to assist States in setting regional water-quality standards. Regional criteria were exceeded by total nitrogen concentrations at 72 percent of NAWQA undeveloped sites and by total phosphorus concentrations at 89 percent of these sites. Exceedances were even more extensive at sites with greater anthropogenic development upstream. The nitrogen criteria were exceeded at 96 percent of NAWQA sites classified as agricultural, urban, or mixed land use, and the phosphorus criteria were exceeded at 97 percent of these sites. Nationally, outflow loads of all nutrient constituents were strongly correlated to nonpoint-source inputs in the upstream watershed. The variation in input mass explained at least 69 percent of the variation in loads. Correlations between nonpoint-source input rates and outflow yields were not quite as good; variation in input rates explained only about 22-45 percent of the variations in nutrient yields. Estimation of nutrient outflow, on the basis of these correlations, likely could be improved if nationally consistent data were available for additional watershed characteristics.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeology, hydrologic budget, and water chemistry of the Medina Lake area, Texas

A three-phase study of the Medina Lake area in Texas was done to assess the hydrogeology and hydrology of Medina and Diversion Lakes combined (the lake system) and to determine what fraction of seepage losses from the lake system might enter the regional ground-water-flow system of the Edwards and (or) Trinity aquifers. Phase 1 consisted of revising the geologic framework for the Medina Lake area. Results of field mapping show that the upper member of the Glen Rose Limestone underlies Medina Lake and the intervening stream channel from the outflow of Medina Lake to the midpoint of Diversion Lake, where the Diversion Lake fault intersects Diversion Lake. A thin sequence of strata consisting primarily of the basal nodular and dolomitic members of the Kainer Formation of the Edwards Group, is present in the southern part of the study area. On the southern side of Medina Lake, the contact between the upper member of the Glen Rose Limestone and the basal nodular member is approximately 1,000 feet above mean sea level, and the contact between the basal nodular member and the dolomitic member is approximately 1,050 feet above mean sea level. The most porous and permeable part of the basal nodular member is about 1,045 feet above mean sea level. At these altitudes, Medina Lake is in hydrologic connection with rocks in the Edwards aquifer recharge zone, and Medina Lake appears to lose more water to the ground-water system along this bedding plane contact. Hydrologic budgets calculated during phase 2 for Medina Lake, Diversion Lake, and Medina/Diversion Lakes combined indicate that: (1) losses from Medina and Diversion Lakes can be quantified; (2) a portion of those losses are entering the Edwards aquifer; and (3) losses to the Trinity aquifer in the Medina Lake area are minimal and within the error of the hydrologic budgets. Hydrologic budgets based on streamflow, precipitation, evaporation, and change in lake storage were used to quantify losses (recharge) to the ground-water system from Medina Lake, Diversion Lake, and Medina/Diversion Lakes combined during October 1995–September 1996. Water losses from Medina Lake to the Edwards/Trinity aquifers ranged from -14.0 to 135 acre-feet per day; Diversion Lake ranged from -1.2 to 93.1 acre-feet per day; and Medina/Diversion Lakes combined ranged from 36.1 to 119 acre-feet per day. Monthly average recharge during December 1995–July 1996 was estimated using an alternative method developed during this study (current study method) and compared to monthly average recharge during December 1995–July 1996 estimated using the existing USGS method and the Trans-Texas method. Recharge to the Edwards aquifer estimated using the current study method was about 69 and 73 percent of the recharge estimated using the USGS and Trans-Texas methods, respectively. The USGS and Trans-Texas methods overestimated recharge from Medina Lake compared to the recharge estimated with the current study method when Medina Lake stage was between about 1,027 and 1,032 feet above mean sea level and underestimated recharge from Medina Lake when lake stage was between about 1,036 and 1,045 feet above mean sea level. The USGS and Trans-Texas methods underestimated recharge from Diversion Lake compared to the recharge estimated with the current study method when Diversion Lake stage was greater than 913 feet above mean sea level and overestimated recharge from Diversion Lake when lake stage was less than 913 feet above mean sea level. The water quality of Medina Lake and Medina River and in selected wells and springs in the Edwards and Trinity aquifers was characterized during phase 3 of the study. Environmental isotope analyses and geochemical modeling also were used to determine where water losses from the lake system might be entering the ground-water-flow system. Isotopic ratios of deuterium, oxygen, and strontium were analyzed in selected surface-water, lake-water, and ground-water samples to trace the isotopic “signature” of the lake water as it mixes with the ground water and to determine the fraction of lake water and ground water in selected Edwards aquifer wells. Isotopic data and geochemical modeling were used to show that lake water is moving into the Edwards aquifer in two fault blocks in the eastern Medina storage unit. One fault block is bounded on the north by the Vandenburg School fault and on the south by the Haby Crossing fault, and the second fault block is bounded on the north by the Diversion Lake fault and on the south by the Haby Crossing fault. In selected Edwards aquifer wells located southwest of Medina Lake and west of Diversion Lake, the proportion of lake water ranged from about 10 to 45 percent. Geochemical modeling using NETPATH confirms the degree of mixing between lake water and aquifer water shown by the isotopes.

Texas↗

Description and evaluation of numerical groundwater flow models for the Edwards Aquifer, south-central Texas

A substantial number of public water system wells in south-central Texas withdraw groundwater from the karstic, highly productive Edwards aquifer. However, the use of numerical groundwater flow models to aid in the delineation of contributing areas for public water system wells in the Edwards aquifer is problematic because of the complex hydrogeologic framework and the presence of conduit-dominated flow paths in the aquifer. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, evaluated six published numerical groundwater flow models (all deterministic) that have been developed for the Edwards aquifer San Antonio segment or Barton Springs segment, or both. This report describes the models developed and evaluates each with respect to accessibility and ease of use, range of conditions simulated, accuracy of simulations, agreement with dye-tracer tests, and limitations of the models. These models are (1) GWSIM model of the San Antonio segment, a FORTRAN computer-model code that pre-dates the development of MODFLOW; (2) MODFLOW conduit-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (3) MODFLOW diffuse-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (4) MODFLOW Groundwater Availability Modeling [GAM] model of the Barton Springs segment; (5) MODFLOW recalibrated GAM model of the Barton Springs segment; and (6) MODFLOW–DCM (dual conductivity model) conduit model of the Barton Springs segment. The GWSIM model code is not commercially available, is limited in its application to the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer, and lacks the ability of MODFLOW to easily incorporate newly developed processes and packages to better simulate hydrologic processes. MODFLOW is a widely used and tested code for numerical modeling of groundwater flow, is well documented, and is in the public domain. These attributes make MODFLOW a preferred code with regard to accessibility and ease of use. The MODFLOW conduit-flow model incorporates improvements over previous models by using (1) a user-friendly interface, (2) updated computer codes (MODFLOW–96 and MODFLOW–2000), (3) a finer grid resolution, (4) less-restrictive boundary conditions, (5) an improved discretization of hydraulic conductivity, (6) more accurate estimates of pumping stresses, (7) a long transient simulation period (54 years, 1947–2000), and (8) a refined representation of high-permeability zones or conduits. All of the models except the MODFLOW–DCM conduit model have limitations resulting from the use of Darcy’s law to simulate groundwater flow in a karst aquifer system where non-Darcian, turbulent flow might actually dominate. The MODFLOW–DCM conduit model is an improvement in the ability to simulate karst-like flow conditions in conjunction with porous-media-type matrix flow. However, the MODFLOW–DCM conduit model has had limited application and testing and currently (2008) lacks commercially available pre- and post-processors. The MODFLOW conduit-flow and diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer models are limited by the lack of calibration for the northern part of the Barton Springs segment (Travis County) and their reliance on the use of the calibrated hydraulic conductivity and storativity values from the calibrated Barton Springs segment GAM model. The major limitation of the Barton Springs segment GAM and recalibrated GAM models is that they were calibrated to match measured water levels and springflows for a restrictive range of hydrologic conditions, with each model having different hydraulic conductivity and storativity values appropriate to the hydrologic conditions that were simulated. The need for two different sets of hydraulic conductivity and storativity values increases the uncertainty associated with the accuracy of either set of values, illustrates the non-uniqueness of the model solution, and probably most importantly demonstrates the limitations of using a one-layer model to represent the heterogeneous hydrostratigraphic units composing the Edwards aquifer. In general, the best matches or agreement between groundwater flow directions inferred by numerical model simulation, and by dye-tracer tests, are observed where model outputs accurately reproduce the configuration of the potentiometric surface with regard to the positions of major and minor groundwater troughs and divides. None of the models, with the possible exception of the MODFLOW–DCM conduit model, has a documented capability to accurately simulate travel times for conduit-dominated velocities in the Edwards aquifer. Public water system assessments of wells in the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards aquifer, and elsewhere where conduit-flow conditions are thought to dominate aquifer hydraulic behavior, might be enhanced by use of either the MODFLOW–DCM model or the newly developed U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW Conduit-Flow Process module for MODFLOW–2005, because each incorporates a type of dual or triple hydraulic conductivity approach and has the capability to explicitly simulate turbulent flow and conduit hydraulic characteristics.

Texas↗

Mineral-deposit model for lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatites

Lithium-cesium-tantalum (LCT) pegmatites comprise a compositionally defined subset of granitic pegmatites. The major minerals are quartz, potassium feldspar, albite, and muscovite; typical accessory minerals include biotite, garnet, tourmaline, and apatite. The principal lithium ore minerals are spodumene, petalite, and lepidolite; cesium mostly comes from pollucite; and tantalum mostly comes from columbite-tantalite. Tin ore as cassiterite and beryllium ore as beryl also occur in LCT pegmatites, as do a number of gemstones and high-value museum specimens of rare minerals. Individual crystals in LCT pegmatites can be enormous: the largest spodumene was 14 meters long, the largest beryl was 18 meters long, and the largest potassium feldspar was 49 meters long. Lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatites account for about one-fourth of the world’s lithium production, most of the tantalum production, and all of the cesium production. Giant deposits include Tanco in Canada, Greenbushes in Australia, and Bikita in Zimbabwe. The largest lithium pegmatite in the United States, at King’s Mountain, North Carolina, is no longer being mined although large reserves of lithium remain. Depending on size and attitude of the pegmatite, a variety of mining techniques are used, including artisanal surface mining, open-pit surface mining, small underground workings, and large underground operations using room-and-pillar design. In favorable circumstances, what would otherwise be gangue minerals (quartz, potassium feldspar, albite, and muscovite) can be mined along with lithium and (or) tantalum as coproducts. Most LCT pegmatites are hosted in metamorphosed supracrustal rocks in the upper greenschist to lower amphibolite facies. Lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatite intrusions generally are emplaced late during orogeny, with emplacement being controlled by pre-existing structures. Typically, they crop out near evolved, peraluminous granites and leucogranites from which they are inferred to be derived by fractional crystallization. In cases where a parental granite pluton is not exposed, one is inferred to lie at depth. Lithium-cesium-tantalum LCT pegmatite melts are enriched in fluxing components including H2O, F, P, and B, which depress the solidus temperature, lower the density, and increase rates of ionic diffusion. This, in turn, enables pegmatites to form thin dikes and massive crystals despite having a felsic composition and temperatures that are significantly lower than ordinary granitic melts. Lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatites crystallized at remarkably low temperatures (about 350–550 °C) in a remarkably short time (days to years). Lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatites form in orogenic hinterlands as products of plate convergence. Most formed during collisional orogeny (for example, Kings Mountain district, North Carolina). Specific causes of LCT pegmatite-related magmatism could include: ordinary arc processes; over thickening of continental crust during collision or subduction; slab breakoff during or after collision; slab delamination before, during, or after collision; and late collisional extensional collapse and consequent decompression melting. Lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatite deposits are present in all continents including Antarctica and in rocks spanning 3 billion years of Earth history. The global age distribution of LCT pegmatites is similar to those of common pegmatites, orogenic granites, and detrital zircons. Peak times of LCT pegmatite genesis at about 2640, 1800, 960, 485, and 310 Ma (million years before present) correspond to times of collisional orogeny and supercontinent assembly. Between these pulses were long intervals when few or no LCT pegmatites formed. These minima overlap with supercontinent tenures at ca. 2450–2225, 1625–1000, 875–725, and 250–200 Ma. Exploration and assessment for LCT pegmatites are guided by a number of observations. In frontier areas where exploration has been minimal at best, the key first-order criteria are an orogenic hinterland setting, appropriate regional metamorphic grades, and the presence of evolved granites and common granitic pegmatites. New LCT pegmatites are most likely to be found near known deposits. Pegmatites tend to show a regional mineralogical and geochemical zoning pattern with respect to the inferred parental granite, with the greatest enrichment in the more distal pegmatites. Mineral-chemical trends in common pegmatites that can point toward an evolved LCT pegmatite include: increasing rubidium in potassium feldspar, increasing lithium in white mica, increasing manganese in garnet, and increasing tantalum and manganese in columbite-tantalite. Most LCT pegmatite bodies show a distinctive internal zonation featuring four zones: border, wall, intermediate (where lithium, cesium, and tantalum are generally concentrated), and core. This zonation is expressed both in cross section and map view; thus, what may appear to be a common pegmatite may instead be the edge of a mineralized body. Neither lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatites nor their parental granites are likely to cause serious environmental concerns. Soils and country rock surrounding a LCT pegmatite, as well as waste from mining operations, may be enriched in characteristic elements relative to global average soil and bedrock values. These elements may include lithium, cesium, tantalum, beryllium, boron, fluorine, phosphorus, manganese, gallium, rubidium, niobium, tin, and hafnium. Among this suite of elements, however, the only ones that might present a concern for environmental health are beryllium and fluorine, which are included in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water regulations with maximum contaminant levels of 4 micrograms per liter and 4 milligrams per liter, respectively.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulated effects of alternative withdrawal strategies on groundwater flow in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basins, New Jersey

Groundwater is essential for water supply and plays a critical role in maintaining the environmental health of freshwater and estuarine ecosystems in the Atlantic Coastal basins of New Jersey. The unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and the confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand are major sources of groundwater in the area, and each faces different water-supply concerns. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), conducted a study to simulate the effects of withdrawals in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and to evaluate potential scenarios. The study area encompasses Atlantic County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Ocean, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties. The major hydrogeologic units affecting water supply in the study area are the surficial Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, a thick diatomaceous clay confining unit in the upper part of Kirkwood Formation; the Rio Grande water-bearing zone; and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand of the Kirkwood Formation. Hydrogeologic data from 18 aquifer tests and specific capacity data from 230 wells were analyzed to provide horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers. Groundwater withdrawals are greatest from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, and 65 percent of the water is used for public supply. Groundwater withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand are about half those from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system. Ninety-five percent of the withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand is used for public supply. Data from six streamgaging stations and 51 low-flow partial record sites were used to estimate base flow in the area. Base flow ranges from 60 to 92 percent of streamflow. A groundwater flow model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand was developed and calibrated using water-level data from 148 wells and base-flow data from 22 gaging or low-flow partial record stations. The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system within the Great Egg Harbor River and the Mullica River Basins was simulated on a monthly basis from 1998 through 2006. An existing regional model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was revised to provide boundary conditions for the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basin model (referred to as the Great Egg-Mullica model). In the Great Egg-Mullica model, monthly groundwater recharge rates used in the model ranged from 10-15 inches per year in 2001 to 20-25 inches per year in 2005. The mean-absolute error for 10 of the 14 long-term hydrographs used in model calibration was less than 5 ft. Groundwater flow budgets for the Great Egg-Mullica model calibration periods, May 2005 and September 2006, and for the entire model calibration period 1998 to 2006, showed that nearly 70 percent of the water entering the Atlantic City 800-foot sand came from the horizontal connection with the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in updip areas. The groundwater flow model was used to simulate scenarios under three possible conditions: average 1998 to 2006 withdrawals (Average scenario), full-allocation withdrawals (Full Allocation scenario), and projected 2050-demand withdrawals (2050 Demand scenario). Withdrawals in the Full Allocation scenario are nearly twice the withdrawals from the Average scenario, primarily because of the potential for large agricultural withdrawals if all allocations are used. Withdrawals for the 2050 Demand scenario are about 50 percent greater than those for the Average scenario, primarily due to expected increases in withdrawals for public supply. Monthly base-flow depletion criteria were determined using the Low-Flow Margin method, currently under consideration by NJDEP, to estimate available water on an annual basis at the Hydrologic Unit Code 11 (HUC11) level and to determine whether a water-supply deficit exists. Simulations of various groundwater-withdrawal scenarios were made using the calibrated model, and results were compared with baseline conditions (no withdrawals) to determine where and when base-flow deficits may be occurring and may be expected to occur in the future. Scenarios were simulated to assess base-flow depletion that could occur from different groundwater-withdrawal situations. In the Average scenario, deficits occurred in 7 of the 14 subbasins. In the Full Allocation scenario, deficits occurred in 11 of the subbasins. In the 2050 Demand scenario, deficits occurred in 9 of the 14 subbasins. The largest deficits occurred in the Absecon Creek subbasin because the base-flow depletion criteria for this subbasin is small due to the surface-water diversions that are already occurring there and because existing groundwater withdrawals in the subbasin have resulted in base-flow depletion under current (1998-2006) conditions. Three adjusted scenarios, variations of the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios, were simulated; for the adjusted scenarios, the withdrawals were modified in stages with the intent to successively eliminate or minimize the base-flow deficits. Modifications included shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, implementing seasonal conjunctive use of shallow and deep aquifers, and specifying reductions in withdrawals within a HUC11 subbasin in deficit. The adjusted scenarios are intended to show the relative effectiveness of each of the three approaches in reducing the deficits. Most of the deficits under the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios were eliminated by reductions in withdrawals or allocations. Shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system or seasonal conjunctive use did not eliminate deficits for any subbasin. Reductions in withdrawals accounted for more than 95 percent of the total reduction of deficits in all but one subbasin.

New Jersey↗