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At least 1,531 records · Page 85Linked to original sources
USGS1997

Coal fields and federal lands of the conterminous United States

The map depicts the relationship of coal and public lands in the conterminous U. S. Multiple GIS layers are being created for the purpose of deriving estimates of how much coal is owned and administered by the Federal government. Federal coal areas have a profound effect on land-management decisions. Regulatory agencies attempt to balance energy development with alternative land-use and environmental concerns. A GIS database of Federal lands used in energy resource assessments is being developed by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to integrate information on status of public land, and minerals owned by the Federal government with geologic information on coal resources, other spatial data, coal quality characteristics, and coal availability for development. Using national-scale data we estimate that approximately 60 percent of the area underlain by coal-bearing rocks in the conterminous United States are under Federal surface. Coal produced from Federal leases has tripled from about 12 percent of the total U.S. production in 1976 to almost 34 percent in 1995 (Energy Information Administration website ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/coal/cia_95_tables/t13p01.txt). The reason for this increase is demand for low-sulfur coal for use in power plants and the fact that large reserves of this low-sulfur coal are in the western interior U.S., where the Federal government owns the rights to most of the coal reserves. The map was created using Arc/Info 7.0.3 on a UNIX system. The HPGL2 plot file for this map is available from the USGS Energy Resource Surveys Team from http://energy.cr.usgs.gov:8080/energy/coal.html.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2011

Implementation of unmanned aircraft systems by the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Project Office is leading the implementation of UAS technology in anticipation of transforming the research methods and management techniques employed across the Department of the Interior. UAS technology is being made available to monitor environmental conditions, analyse the impacts of climate change, respond to natural hazards, understand landscape change rates and consequences, conduct wildlife inventories and support related land management missions. USGS is teaming with the Department of the Interior Aviation Management Directorate (AMD) to lead the safe and cost-effective adoption of UAS technology by the Department of the Interior Agencies and USGS scientists.

Geocarto International↗
USGS2007

Impacts of waste from concentrated animal feeding operations on water quality

Waste from agricultural livestock operations has been a long-standing concern with respect to contamination of water resources, particularly in terms of nutrient pollution. However, the recent growth of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) presents a greater risk to water quality because of both the increased volume of waste and to contaminants that may be present (e.g., antibiotics and other veterinary drugs) that may have both environmental and public health importance. Based on available data, generally accepted livestock waste management practices do not adequately or effectively protect water resources from contamination with excessive nutrients, microbial pathogens, and pharmaceuticals present in the waste. Impacts on surface water sources and wildlife have been documented in many agricultural areas in the United States. Potential impacts on human and environmental health from long-term inadvertent exposure to water contaminated with pharmaceuticals and other compounds are a growing public concern. This workgroup, which is part of the Conference on Environmental Health Impacts of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations: Anticipating Hazards-Searching for Solutions, identified needs for rigorous ecosystem monitoring in the vicinity of CAFOs and for improved characterization of major toxicants affecting the environment and human health. Last, there is a need to promote and enforce best practices to minimize inputs of nutrients and toxicants from CAFOs into freshwater and marine ecosystems.

Environmental Health Perspectives↗
USGS2014

Strategies for preventing invasive plant outbreaks after prescribed fire in ponderosa pine forest

Land managers use prescribed fire to return a vital process to fire-adapted ecosystems, restore forest structure from a state altered by long-term fire suppression, and reduce wildfire intensity. However, fire often produces favorable conditions for invasive plant species, particularly if it is intense enough to reveal bare mineral soil and open previously closed canopies. Understanding the environmental or fire characteristics that explain post-fire invasive plant abundance would aid managers in efficiently finding and quickly responding to fire-caused infestations. To that end, we used an information-theoretic model-selection approach to assess the relative importance of abiotic environmental characteristics (topoedaphic position, distance from roads), pre-and post-fire biotic environmental characteristics (forest structure, understory vegetation, fuel load), and prescribed fire severity (measured in four different ways) in explaining invasive plant cover in ponderosa pine forest in South Dakota’s Black Hills. Environmental characteristics (distance from roads and post-fire forest structure) alone provided the most explanation of variation (26%) in post-fire cover of Verbascum thapsus (common mullein), but a combination of surface fire severity and environmental characteristics (pre-fire forest structure and distance from roads) explained 36–39% of the variation in post-fire cover of Cirsium arvense (Canada thistle) and all invasives together. For four species and all invasives together, their pre-fire cover explained more variation (26–82%) in post-fire cover than environmental and fire characteristics did, suggesting one strategy for reducing post-fire invasive outbreaks may be to find and control invasives before the fire. Finding them may be difficult, however, since pre-fire environmental characteristics explained only 20% of variation in pre-fire total invasive cover, and less for individual species. Thus, moderating fire intensity or targeting areas of high severity for post-fire invasive control may be the most efficient means for reducing the chances of post-fire invasive plant outbreaks when conducting prescribed fires in this region.

South Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Power analysis for detecting the effects of best management practices on reducing nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes to the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA

In 2010 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency established the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) which is a “pollution diet” that aims to reduce the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus entering the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States, by 25 and 24% percent, respectively. To achieve this goal the TMDL requires the implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs), which are accepted land management practices for reducing pollutant runoff to nearby bodies of water. While the TMDL requires that the necessary management actions be in place by 2025 to eventually reach targeted nutrient loads, the ability to detect an effect of BMPs while assuming that one has occurred (i.e. statistical power) is still not well understood. The goal of this study was to investigate the power and required timelines to detect nutrient reductions in streams and rivers as the result of BMP implementation at the Chesapeake Watershed scale. Power estimates were produced using SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models, which offer a flexible statistical framework and were recently extended to allow for modeling multiple time steps. Nitrogen and phosphorus focused models were calibrated to estimate the power to detect reductions in flux from numerous constituent sources. To confidently detect a decrease in constituent flux reaching the Chesapeake Bay’s tidal waters from a specific constituent source, reductions ranging from 30–60% were required for the nitrogen model. In contrast, reductions of up to 80% were not detectable under the phosphorus model. The timelines necessary to detect reductions in nitrogen flux ranged from 11 to several hundred years under different rates-of-change and management scenarios. The approach proposed here can help better understand the ability to detect the effects of BMPs on a regional scale and help guide future management actions and monitoring programs.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗
USGS2015

Multilevel learning in the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests: 20 years and counting

In 1995, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service implemented an adaptive harvest management program (AHM) for the sport harvest of midcontinent mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ). The program has been successful in reducing long-standing contentiousness in the regulatory process, while integrating science and policy in a coherent, rigorous, and transparent fashion. After 20 years, much has been learned about the relationship among waterfowl populations, their environment, and hunting regulations, with each increment of learning contributing to better management decisions. At the same time, however, much has been changing in the social, institutional, and environmental arenas that provide context for the AHM process. Declines in hunter numbers, competition from more pressing conservation issues, and global-change processes are increasingly challenging waterfowl managers to faithfully reflect the needs and desires of stakeholders, to account for an increasing number of institutional constraints, and to (probabilistically) predict the consequences of regulatory policy in a changing environment. We review the lessons learned from the AHM process so far, and describe emerging challenges and ways in which they may be addressed. We conclude that the practice of AHM has greatly increased an awareness of the roles of social values, trade-offs, and attitudes toward risk in regulatory decision-making. Nevertheless, going forward the waterfowl management community will need to focus not only on the relationships among habitat, harvest, and waterfowl populations, but on the ways in which society values waterfowl and how those values can change over time.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2016

Aquatic Trophic Productivity model: A decision support model for river restoration planning in the Methow River, Washington

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a dynamic food-web simulation model to provide decision support for Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) river restoration projects in the Methow River, Washington. This modeling effort was done to contribute to Reasonable and Prudent Alternative actions 56 and 57of the 2014 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion (FCRPS BO), which calls for exploration of modeling as a means to help evaluate Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed fish response to river restoration efforts. In the Methow River, these species of concern include Upper Columbia River (UCR) spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and UCR summer steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). Additionally, the Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB) for the Columbia River has identified the need for modeling (Independent Scientific Advisory Board, 2011a)—including models that incorporate food-web dynamics (Independent Scientific Advisory Board, 2011b)—to better understand how restoration and management strategies might enhance salmon and steelhead populations. Dynamic food-web models, even relatively simple ones, can be valuable tools for exploring responses to river restoration. Although these models have rarely been applied to rivers and streams (but see Mcintire and Colby, 1978; Power and others, 1995), they are commonly used for management decisions in terrestrial and ocean ecosystems (Christensen and Pauly, 1993; Evans and others, 2013). One of the main strengths of these models is that they are rooted in the fundamental laws of thermodynamics (that is, mass balance). Moreover, these models can be easily adapted to different contexts by adding or subtracting different species from the web and by mechanistically linking the dynamics of web members to local environmental conditions, such as water temperature, stream discharge, and channel hydraulics (Power and others, 1995; Doyle, 2006). Alternative management actions can then be evaluated by changing these environmental conditions to simulate potential outcomes following restoration. In this report, we outline the structure of a stream food-web model constructed to explore how alternative river restoration strategies may affect stream fish populations. We have termed this model the “Aquatic Trophic Productivity model” (ATP). We present the model structure, followed by three case study applications of the model to segments of the Methow River watershed in northern Washington. For two case studies (middle Methow River and lower Twisp River floodplain), we ran a series of simulations to explore how food-web dynamics respond to four distinctly different, but applied, strategies in the Methow River watershed: (1) reconnection of floodplain aquatic habitats, (2) riparian vegetation planting, (3) nutrient augmentation (that is, salmon carcass addition), and (4) enhancement of habitat suitability for fish. For the third case study, we conducted simulations to explore the potential fish and food-web response to habitat improvements conducted in 2012 at the Whitefish Island Side Channel, located in the middle Methow River.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Assessing the state of water resource knowledge and tools for future planning in the lower Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin

The Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin (hereinafter referred to as the Rio Grande) is a transboundary basin, with the Rio Grande forming the border between the United States and Mexico for approximately 2,034 km. The waters of the Rio Grande serve as a critical drinking source for 13 million people, connecting numerous population centers representing diverse backgrounds and cultures along its length. Cross-border ecosystems and communities make water management strategies particularly challenging. With different regulations and societal interests in the two countries, developing effective water-management strategies is challenging and requires the coordination of diverse interested parties representing different government agencies, institutions, and stakeholder groups with varying and sometimes conflicting objectives. To better evaluate the human and environmental water needs (environmental flows) of this constrained river system, an improved understanding of past and present water management objectives, policies, allocation practices, and water use is needed.

Lower Rio Grande-Río Bravo Basin↗
USGS2017

Optimization of human, animal, and environmental health by using the One Health approach

Emerging diseases are increasing burdens on public health, negatively affecting the world economy, causing extinction of species, and disrupting ecological integrity. One Health recognizes that human, domestic animal, and wildlife health are interconnected within ecosystem health and provides a framework for the development of multidisciplinary solutions to global health challenges. To date, most health-promoting interventions have focused largely on single-sector outcomes. For example, risk for transmission of zoonotic pathogens from bush-meat hunting is primarily focused on human hygiene and personal protection. However, bush-meat hunting is a complex issue promoting the need for holistic strategies to reduce transmission of zoonotic disease while addressing food security and wildlife conservation issues. Temporal and spatial separation of humans and wildlife, risk communication, and other preventative strategies should allow wildlife and humans to co-exist. Upstream surveillance, vaccination, and other tools to prevent pathogen spillover are also needed. Clear multi-sector outcomes should be defined, and a systems-based approach is needed to develop interventions that reduce risks and balance the needs of humans, wildlife, and the environment. The ultimate goal is long-term action to reduce forces driving emerging diseases and provide interdisciplinary scientific approaches to management of risks, thereby achieving optimal outcomes for human, animal, and environmental health.

Journal of Veterinary Science↗
USGS2012

Forest Succession and Maternity Day roost selection by Myotis septentrionalis in a mesophytic hardwood forest

Conservation of summer maternity roosts is considered critical for bat management in North America, yet many aspects of the physical and environmental factors that drive roost selection are poorly understood. We tracked 58 female northern bats ( Myotis septentrionalis ) to 105 roost trees of 21 species on the Fort Knox military reservation in north-central Kentucky during the summer of 2011. Sassafras ( Sassafras albidum ) was used as a day roost more than expected based on forest stand-level availability and accounted for 48.6% of all observed day roosts. Using logistic regression and an information theoretic approach, we were unable to reliably differentiate between sassafras and other roost species or between day roosts used during different maternity periods using models representative of individual tree metrics, site metrics, topographic location, or combinations of these factors. For northern bats, we suggest that day-roost selection is not a function of differences between individual tree species per se , but rather of forest successional patterns, stand and tree structure. Present successional trajectories may not provide this particular selected structure again without management intervention, thereby suggesting that resource managers take a relatively long retrospective view to manage current and future forest conditions for bats.

Kentucky↗
USGS2000

Physiological development and migratory behavior of subyearling fall chinook salmon in the Columbia River

We describe the migratory behavior and physiological development of subyearling fall chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha migrating through John Day Reservoir on the Columbia River, Washington and Oregon. Fish were freeze-branded and coded-wire-tagged at McNary Dam, Oregon, from 1991 to 1994, to determine travel time to John Day Dam and subsequent adult contribution. Stepwise multiple regression showed that 47% of the variation in subyearling fall chinook salmon travel time was explained by the reciprocal of minimum flow and fish size. Smoltification, as measured by gill Na+-K+ adenosine triphosphatase (ATPase) activity, was not important in explaining variability in travel time of subyearling chinook salmon. Fish marked early in the out-migration generally traveled faster than middle and late migrants. Seawater challenges were used to describe physiological development and showed that osmoregulatory competence of premigrants in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River increased with fish size and gill ATPase activity. Once active migrants began passing McNary Dam, fish generally had survival exceeding 90% and were able to regulate their blood plasma Na+ in seawater. Gill ATPase activity increased as premigrants, reared in nearshore areas of the Hanford Reach, reached a peak among active migrants in late June and early July then decreased through the remainder of the out-migration. Salinity preference also peaked in subyearling fall chinook salmon during late June to mid July in 1995. Return of adults from marked groups showed no consistent patterns that would suggest a survival advantage for any portion of the juvenile out-migration. Presumed wild migrants from the middle and late portions of the out-migration were primary contributors to all fisheries, except the Priest Rapids Hatchery. As such, fishery managers should take action to ensure the survival of these fish, especially because they migrate under more unfavorable environmental conditions than early migrants.

Oregon; Washington↗
USGS2008

Land management impacts on dairy-derived dissolved organic carbon in ground water

Dairy operations have the potential to elevate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) levels in ground water, where it may interact with organic and inorganic contaminants, fuel denitrification, and may present problems for drinking water treatment. Total and percent bioavailable DOC and total and carbon-specific trihalomethane (THM) formation potential (TTHMFP and STHMFP, respectively) were determined for shallow ground water samples from beneath a dairy farm in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Sixteen wells influenced by specific land management areas were sampled over 3 yr. Measured DOC concentrations were significantly elevated over the background as measured at an upgradient monitoring well, ranging from 13 to 55 mg L-1 in wells downgradient from wastewater ponds, 8 to 30 mg L-1 in corral wells, 5 to 12 mg L-1 in tile drains, and 4 to 15 mg L-1 in wells associated with manured fields. These DOC concentrations were at the upper range or greatly exceeded concentrations in most surface water bodies used as drinking water sources in California. DOC concentrations in individual wells varied by up to a factor of two over the duration of this study, indicating a dynamic system of sources and degradation. DOC bioavailability over 21 d ranged from 3 to 10%, comparable to surface water systems and demonstrating the potential for dairy-derived DOC to influence dissolved oxygen concentrations (nearly all wells were hypoxic to anoxic) and denitrification. TTHMFP measurements across all management units ranged from 141 to 1731 ??g L-1, well in excess of the maximum contaminant level of 80 ??g L-1 established by the Environmental Protection Agency. STHMFP measurements demonstrated over twofold variation (???4 to ???8 mmol total THM/mol DOC) across the management areas, indicating the dependence of reactivity on DOC composition. The results indicate that land management strongly controls the quantity and quality of DOC to reach shallow ground water and hence should be considered when managing ground water resources and in any efforts to mitigate contamination of ground water with carbon-based contaminants, such as pesticides and pharmaceuticals. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2000

Multicriteria decision analysis applied to Glen Canyon Dam

Conflicts in water resources exist because river-reservoir systems are managed to optimize traditional benefits (e.g., hydropower and flood control), which are historically quantified in economic terms, whereas natural and environmental resources, including in-stream and riparian resources, are more difficult or impossible to quantify in economic terms. Multicriteria decision analysis provides a quantitative approach to evaluate resources subject to river basin management alternatives. This objective quantification method includes inputs from special interest groups, the general public, and concerned individuals, as well as professionals for each resource considered in a trade-off analysis. Multicriteria decision analysis is applied to resources and flow alternatives presented in the environmental impact statement for Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River. A numeric rating and priority-weighting scheme is used to evaluate 29 specific natural resource attributes, grouped into seven main resource objectives, for nine flow alternatives enumerated in the environmental impact statement.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗
USGS2015

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2015

Using motion-sensor camera technology to infer seasonal activity and thermal niche of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii )

Understanding the relationships between environmental variables and wildlife activity is an important part of effective management. The desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ), an imperiled species of arid environments in the southwest US, may have increasingly restricted windows for activity due to current warming trends. In summer 2013, we deployed 48 motion sensor cameras at the entrances of tortoise burrows to investigate the effects of temperature, sex, and day of the year on the activity of desert tortoises. Using generalized estimating equations, we found that the relative probability of activity was associated with temperature (linear and quadratic), sex, and day of the year. Sex effects showed that male tortoises are generally more active than female tortoises. Temperature had a quadratic effect, indicating that tortoise activity was heightened at a range of temperatures. In addition, we found significant support for interactions between sex and day of the year, and sex and temperature as predictors of the probability of activity. Using our models, we were able to estimate air temperatures and times (days and hours) that were associated with maximum activity during the study. Because tortoise activity is constrained by environmental conditions such as temperature, it is increasingly vital to conduct studies on how tortoises vary their activity throughout the Sonoran Desert to better understand the effects of a changing climate.

California↗
USGS2024

Global assessment of aquatic Isoëtes species ecology

Isoëtes are iconic but understudied wetland plants, despite having suffered severe losses globally mainly because of alterations in their habitats. We therefore provide the first global ecological assessment of aquatic Isoëtes to identify their environmental requirements and to evaluate if taxonomically related species differ in their ecology. The assessment resulted in an extensive new database on aquatic Isoëtes , ecological niche analyses, and descriptive species accounts. We compiled a global database that includes all known environmental data collected from 1935 to 2023 regarding aquatic Isoëtes. We then evaluated the environmental drivers of 16 species using 2,179 global records. Additionally, we used hypervolume analysis to quantify the ecological niches of the two species with the greatest number of records, finding significant differences and evidence that Isoëtes echinospora occupies a wider ecological niche than Isoëtes lacustris . Fifty-nine species (30% of the c. 200 Isoëtes species known today) were categorised as aquatic and were mainly reported in the Americas and northern Europe. About 38% of the aquatic species are threatened with extinction or are endemic to a small region, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List in 2023. Many species were determined to be sensitive to certain water physical and chemical factors, generally preferring oligotrophic conditions such as low total phosphorus, moderate total nitrogen, moderate to low pH, and low conductivity. This analysis includes ecological data in the assessment of rare/threatened aquatic plants globally. This new database and the ecological analyses completed defined the ecological requirements of several species and identified knowledge gaps, which can aid management actions and future research. This paper highlights ecological significance and environmental sensitivities of aquatic Isoëtes . The current level of knowledge is inadequate for a large proportion of known taxa. We affirm the extreme need to support global, collaborative initiatives on which to build future conservation strategies.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2015

Managing habitat to slow or reverse population declines of the Columbia spotted frog in the Northern Great Basin

Evaluating the effectiveness of habitat management actions is critical to adaptive management strategies for conservation of imperiled species. We quantified the response of a Great Basin population of the Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) to multiple habitat improvement actions aimed to reduce threats and reverse population declines. We used mark-recapture data for 1,394 adult frogs that had been marked by state, federal, and university biologists in 9 ponds representing a single population over a 16-year period from 1997 to 2012. With the use of demographic models, we assessed population-level effects of 1) a grazing exclosure constructed around 6 stock ponds that had been used to water livestock for decades before being fully fenced in 2003, and 2) the construction of 3 new stock ponds in 2003 to provide alternative water sources for livestock and, secondarily, to provide additional frog habitat. These management actions were implemented in response to a decline of more than 80% in population size from 1997 to 2002. We found evidence that excluding cattle from ponds and surrounding riparian habitats resulted in higher levels of frog production (more egg masses), higher adult frog recruitment and survival, and higher population growth rate. We also found that frogs colonized the newly constructed stock ponds within 3 years and frogs began breeding in 2 of them after 5 years. The positive effects of the cattle exclosure and additional production from the new ponds, although notable, did not result in full recovery of the population even 9 years later. This slow recovery may be partly explained by the effects of weather on recruitment rates, particularly the negative effects of harsher winters with late springs and higher fall temperatures. Although our findings point to potential successes of habitat management aimed at slowing or reversing rapidly declining frog populations, our study also suggests that recovering from severe population declines can take many years because of demographic and environmental processes.

Idaho↗
USGS2018

Spatial variability in ocean-mediated growth potential is linked to Chinook salmon survival

Early ocean survival of Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, varies greatly inter-annually and may be the period during which later spawning abundance and fishery recruitment are set. Therefore, identifying environmental drivers related to early survival may inform better models for management and sustainability of salmon in a variable environment. With this in mind, our main objectives were to (a) identify regions of high temporal variability in growth potential over a 23-year time series, (b) determine whether the spatial distribution of growth potential was correlated with observed oceanographic conditions, and (c) determine whether these spatial patterns in growth potential could be used to estimate juvenile salmon survival. We applied this method to the fall run of the Central Valley Chinook salmon population, focusing on the spring and summer period after emigration into central California coastal waters. For the period from 1988 to 2010, juvenile salmon growth potential on the central California continental shelf was described by three spatial patterns. These three patterns were most correlated with upwelling, detrended sea level anomalies, and the strength of onshore/offshore currents, respectively. Using the annual strength of these three patterns, as well as the overall growth potential throughout central California coastal waters, in a generalized linear model we explained 82% of the variation in juvenile salmon survival estimates. We attributed the relationship between growth potential and survival to variability in environmental conditions experienced by juvenile salmon during their first year at sea, as well as potential shifts in predation pressure following out-migration into coastal waters.

Fisheries Oceanography↗