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The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Augustine Volcano, the most historically active volcano in Alaska’s Cook Inlet region, again showed signs of life in April 2005. Escalating seismic unrest, ground deformation, and gas emissions culminated in an eruption from January 11 to mid-March of 2006, the fifth major eruption in 75 years. The eruption began with a series of 13 short-lived blasts over 20 days that sent pyroclastic flows; snow, rock, and ice avalanches; and lahars down the volcano’s snow clad flanks; ash clouds drifted hundreds of kilometers downwind. Punctuated explosive activity gave way to effusion of lava and emplacement of thick block-and-ash flows on the volcano’s north flank that continued through mid-February. In mid-March renewed extrusion resulted in the building of a new, higher summit lava dome and two blocky lava flows on the north and northeast flanks of the cone. The eruption resulted in ash fall on many south-central Alaskan communities and disrupted air traffic in the region. Augustine’s frequent eruptions and relatively easy access have long drawn volcanologists to study the accumulation, ascent, and eruption of andesitic to dacitic magma. Studies of the most recent activity before 2006, in 1976 and 1986, revealed that the volcano lately produces explosive eruptions that are preceded by months of unrest and injection of new magma into a storage region in the upper several kilometers of the crust. Each of these eruptions then followed a similar progression from explosive to effusive behavior over several months. Petrologic and geophysical observations suggest that these three eruptions were triggered by similar magma mixing events and that the subsequent ascent and eruption of magma was governed by processes that were roughly constant from one eruption to the next. Geologic studies of the island show that in the more distant past parts of Augustine’s edifice have failed repeatedly, resulting in debris avalanches that entered the sea and, at least once, in 1883, caused a tsunami that hit surrounding Cook Inlet coastlines. Such edifice failures and resultant local tsunamis should be expected in the future. Recognition of Augustine’s frequent activity and hazardous nature led to the installation of a network of telemetered seismometers beginning in 1971, the establishment of a geodetic network in 1988, and the installation of other new instrumentation such as pressure sensors, broadband seismometers, and cameras by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), and the selection of Augustine for geodetic instrumentation through the EarthScope/Plate Boundary Observatory program in 2004. In addition, remote sensing techniques, such as airborne thermal imaging and the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER), provided novel and often critical information as the 2006 eruption progressed. The combination of a long-term seismic network and an array of new monitoring techniques has provided a breadth and depth of understanding of Augustine’s most recent activity that was not possible in the past. This volume contains 28 chapters reporting on a diverse suite of new scientific observations and investigations that were motivated by the 2006 eruption. Understanding the magmatic processes that drive eruptions, identifying eruptive events, tracking the movement of ash clouds, and communicating the resultant hazards to other government agencies and the public are all critical tasks for AVO, and chapters touch upon all of these topics. One goal in this compilation is to synthesize the diverse information into as complete an understanding of the magmatic and eruptive processes as possible. An equally important goal is to provide a framework for diagnosing periods of unrest and formulating forecasts of eruptions that will certainly take place at Augustine in the future. This latter goal is especially important, as Augustine’s frequent eruptive activity suggests that another eruption can be expected within the next several decades. Consequently, the investigations in this volume are intended to provide both a means to better forecast future eruptive episodes and also an opportunity to formulate and test future hypotheses for magmatic and eruptive processes. Future eruptions may follow a course similar to those observed in 1976, 1986, and 2006. However, a major perturbation that upsets conditions within the magmatic system could occur, owing perhaps to the rise of a much larger or different parental magma or to a large edifice failure similar to the 1883 sector collapse. In such events, the comprehensive study of past eruptions will provide data critical to assessing the current state of the magmatic system. In assembling this volume we have sought as consistent and accurate a portrayal of the 2006 eruption as possible. We have asked all authors to refer to the same basic eruption chronology, unless their observations and data require alternative explanations. Naturally, not all techniques or methodologies produce a completely consistent set of observations, nor do the precise conclusions in every paper support one another. We have grouped chapters on the basis of discipline. Papers that focus on specific techniques, methodology, or instrumentation are placed throughout the volume where they best fit with others that rely on their results.

Alaska↗

An economic value of remote-sensing information—Application to agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality

Does remote-sensing information provide economic benefits to society, and can a value be assigned to those benefits? Can resource management and policy decisions be better informed by coupling past and present Earth observations with groundwater nitrate measurements? Using an integrated assessment approach, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) applied an established conceptual framework to answer these questions, as well as to estimate the value of information (VOI) for remote-sensing imagery. The approach uses moderate-resolution land-imagery (MRLI) data from the Landsat and Advanced Wide Field Sensor satellites that has been classified by the National Agricultural Statistics Service into the Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Within the constraint of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's public health threshold for potable groundwater resources, the USGS modeled the relation between a population of the CDL's land uses and dynamic nitrate (NO3-) contamination of aquifers in a case study region in northeastern Iowa. Employing various multiscaled, multitemporal geospatial datasets with MRLI to maximize the value of agricultural production, the approach develops and uses multiple environmental science models to address dynamic nitrogen loading and transport at specified distances from specific sites (wells) and at landscape scales (for example, across 35 counties and two aquifers). In addition to the ecosystem service of potable groundwater, this effort focuses on the use of MRLI for the management of the major land uses in the study region-the production of corn and soybeans, which can impact groundwater quality. Derived methods and results include (1) economic and dynamic nitrate-pollution models, (2) probabilities of the survival of groundwater, and (3) a VOI for remote sensing. For the northeastern Iowa study region, the marginal benefit of the MRLI VOI (in 2010 dollars) is $858 million ±$197 million annualized, which corresponds to a net present value of $38.1 billion ±$8.8 billion for that flow of benefits in perpetuity. Given that these economic estimates are derived from one case study in a part of only one State, the estimates provide a lower estimate related to the potential value of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission.

Professional Paper↗

Global cropland-extent product at 30-m resolution (GCEP30) derived from Landsat satellite time-series data for the year 2015 using multiple machine-learning algorithms on Google Earth Engine cloud

Executive Summary Global food and water security analysis and management require precise and accurate global cropland-extent maps. Existing maps have limitations, in that they are (1) mapped using coarse-resolution remote-sensing data, resulting in the lack of precise mapping location of croplands and their accuracies; (2) derived by collecting and collating national statistical data that are often subjective, leading to substantial uncertainties in cropland-area estimates, as well as their locations; and (3) extracted from one or more classes of a land use–land cover product in which cropland classes are not the focus of mapping, leading to their mixing with other classes and creating significant errors of omission and commission. These limitations can be overcome by producing high-resolution cropland-extent maps using satellite-sensor data, such as Landsat 30-m resolution or higher. The most fundamental cropland product is the high-resolution cropland-extent map because all higher level cropland products, such as crop-watering method (that is, whether crops are irrigated or rainfed), crop types, cropping intensities, cropland fallows, crop productivity, and crop-water productivity, are dependent on a precise and accurate cropland-extent product. Given these realities, the overarching goal of this study was to produce a Landsat satellite-derived global cropland-extent product at 30-m resolution. The work, which involved a paradigm shift in how global cropland-extent maps are produced, involved the following five key steps: (1) petabyte-scale computing that involved multiyear, 8- to 16-day, time-series Landsat 30-m resolution data for the global land surface; (2) composition of analysis-ready data (ARD) cubes; (3) creation of a large global-reference data hub for machine learning; (4) use of multiple machine-learning algorithms (MLAs) by writing software and computing in the cloud; and (5) Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing. The five key steps involved nine distinct phases. First, the world was segmented into 74 agroecological zones (AEZs). Second, Landsat 8- to 16-day data were used to time-composite 10-band (blue, green, red, near-infrared, short-wave infrared band 1, short-wave infrared band 2, thermal infrared, enhanced vegetation index, normalized difference water index, and normalized difference vegetation index) Landsat 30-m resolution data cubes for every 2- to 4-month time period during 3- to 4-year periods (stated as nominal-year 2015 or, simply, 2015), along with two additional 30-m resolution bands (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission elevation, and slope) in each of the 74 AEZs. Third, more than 100,000 reference-training data samples were collected using ground data (some of which were collected using a mobile application), as well as submeter- to 5-m-resolution, very high-resolution imagery sourced from other reliable sources. Fourth, reference-training data were used to create a knowledge base for separating cropland from noncropland. Fifth, MLAs such as the pixel-based supervised random forest and support-vector machines were written on the GEE using Python and JavaScript. Sixth, object-based recursive hierarchical segmentation algorithm was used, in addition to MLAs, to overcome uncertainties. Seventh, MLAs used the knowledge base to classify and separate cropland from noncropland. Eighth, accuracy assessment was conducted by generating error matrices for each of the 74 AEZs using 19,171 independent validation-data samples. Ninth, cropland areas were computed for all countries of the world and compared with United Nation’s (UN’s) Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and other national statistics. The outcome was a Landsat-derived global cropland-extent product at 30-m resolution (GCEP30), which has an overall accuracy of 91.7 percent. For the cropland class, producer’s accuracy was 83.4 percent, and user’s accuracy was 78.3 percent. GCEP30 calculated (using direct pixel count) the global net-cropland area (GNCA) for the year 2015 as 1.873 billion hectares (~12.6 percent of the Earth’s terrestrial area). The continental cropland distribution as a percentage of GNCA was Asia, 33 percent; Europe, 25.5 percent; Africa, 16.7 percent; North America, 14.4 percent; South America, 8.1 percent; and Australia and Oceania, 2.4 percent. The worldwide cropland areas in GCEP30 for 2015 were higher by 236 to 299 million hectares (Mha) compared to national statistics reported elsewhere for the same year (for example, in Food and Agriculture Organization’s corporate statistical database [FAOSTAT] and in the monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas [MIRCA] database). The global cropland area reported for 2015 increased by 344 Mha (22.5 percent), compared to the year 2000. During the same period (2000–2015), the world’s population increased by 20 percent. Whereas some of these areal increases are real increases in cropland areas, others are due to the types of data, methods, and approaches used. Using the highest known resolution (compared to previous coarse-resolution global products) enabled this study to capture fragmented croplands. Coarse-resolution data compute areas on the basis of subpixels, which, for a large proportion of certain land use–land cover classes, will show only a certain percentage of the total pixel area as actual area. Subpixel areas can lead to substantial uncertainties in area computation, as determining the exact fraction of cropland areas within a coarse-resolution pixel is resource intensive and subject to errors. Other innovations in GCEP30 include reference-data hubs, machine learning, and cloud computing. Cropland areas in 214 countries, territories, departments, and regions were calculated for the year 2015 using GCEP30, on the basis of UN’s global administrative unit layers (GAUL) boundaries. The 10 leading countries in terms of cropland area (as a percentage of the GNCA) were India (9.6 percent), United States (8.95 percent), China (8.82 percent), Russia (8.32 percent), Brazil (3.42 percent), Ukraine (2.32 percent), Canada (2.29 percent), Argentina (2.05 percent), Indonesia (2 percent), and Nigeria (1.91 percent). Together, these 10 countries occupy 50 percent of the global cropland, and they have 52 percent of the global population. Their combined cropland area increased by 2 percent between 2000 and 2015, compared to the substantial increase in population of 517 million (15.5 percent). Together, India, United States, China, and Russia encompass 36 percent of the total area. In the United States and Canada, from 2000 to 2015, cropland decreased by about 2 percent, whereas their populations increased by 14 and 13 percent, respectively. The additional food requirements in these 10 countries, which are caused by increased populations, as well as increasing nutritional demands, are met by production increases in existing cropland or through virtual food trade, or both. More than 18 countries, territories, departments, or regions had 60 percent or more of their geographic area as cropland: Republic of Moldova, San Marino, and Hungary had more than 80 percent of the country’s area as cropland; Denmark, Ukraine, Ireland, and Bangladesh, 70 to 80 percent; and Uruguay, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Spain, Lithuania, Poland, Gaza Strip, Czechia, Italy, India, and Azerbaijan, 60 to 70 percent. Europe and South Asia can be considered agricultural capitals of the world, on the basis of their percentages of geographic area as cropland. United States, China, and Russia, which all have high cropland areas, are ranked second, third, and fourth in the world; India is ranked first. However, the amount of cropland as a percentage of the country’s geographic area is relatively very low for United States (18.3 percent), China (17.7 percent), and Russia (9.5 percent), whereas it is 60.5 percent for India. Most African and South American countries, territories, departments, or regions have less than 15 percent of their geographic area as cropland. China and India together house 36 percent of the world’s population; however, between 2000 and 2015, the amount of China’s cropland area fell by 18.9 percent, owing to urban expansion and the abandonment of farmlands caused by demographic changes (that is, the movement of population from villages to cities). In contrast, China’s population grew by 10 percent. The amount of India’s cropland increased by 8.5 percent, whereas its population grew by 20 percent. This study showed that, out of the 10 leading cropland countries, Ukraine, Nigeria, Russia, and Indonesia showed an 18 to 31 percent increase in cropland areas, on the basis of GCEP30 by the year 2015, compared to 2000. Nigeria’s cropland area increased by 25 percent, and its population increased by 31 percent in the same period. In these countries, food security is maintained by cropland expansion, productivity increases, and virtual food trade. Nevertheless, this trend of increasing net-cropland area and productivity will likely become difficult to maintain, owing to diminishing arable lands and plateauing of 50 years of continual yield increases, requiring policymakers to explore novel and data-supported approaches to solving future food security issues. The GCEP30 product, which can be browsed at full resolution at www.croplands.org , has been released for public download and use through U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)–National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (see https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/news/release-of-gfsad-30-meter-cropland-extent-products/ ).

Professional Paper↗

Conifer health classification for Colorado, 2008

Colorado has undergone substantial changes in forests due to urbanization, wildfires, insect-caused tree mortality, and other human and environmental factors. The U.S. Geological Survey Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center evaluated and developed a methodology for applying remotely-sensed imagery for assessing conifer health in Colorado. Two classes were identified for the purposes of this study: healthy and unhealthy (for example, an area the size of a 30- x 30-m pixel with 20 percent or greater visibly dead trees was defined as ?unhealthy?). Medium-resolution Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper imagery were collected. The normalized, reflectance-converted, cloud-filled Landsat scenes were merged to form a statewide image mosaic, and a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Renormalized Difference Infrared Index (RDII) were derived. A supervised maximum likelihood classification was done using the Landsat multispectral bands, the NDVI, the RDII, and 30-m U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Dataset (NED). The classification was constrained to pixels identified in the updated landcover dataset as coniferous or mixed coniferous/deciduous vegetation. The statewide results were merged with a separate health assessment of Grand County, Colo., produced in late 2008. Sampling and validation was done by collecting field data and high-resolution imagery. The 86 percent overall classification accuracy attained in this study suggests that the data and methods used successfully characterized conifer conditions within Colorado. Although forest conditions for Lodgepole Pine (Pinus contorta) are easily characterized, classification uncertainty exists between healthy/unhealthy Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa), Pi?on (Pinus edulis), and Juniper (Juniperus sp.) vegetation. Some underestimation of conifer mortality in Summit County is likely, where recent (2008) cloud-free imagery was unavailable. These classification uncertainties are primarily due to the spatial and temporal resolution of Landsat, and of the NLCD derived from this sensor. It is believed that high- to moderate-resolution multispectral imagery, coupled with field data, could significantly reduce the uncertainty rates. The USGS produced a four-county follow-up conifer health assessment using high-resolution RapidEye remotely sensed imagery and field data collected in 2009.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Automated mapping of mineral groups and green vegetation from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery with an example from the San Juan Mountains, Colorado

Multispectral satellite data acquired by the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (TM) sensors are being used to populate an online Geographic Information System (GIS) of the spatial occurrence of mineral groups and green vegetation across the western conterminous United States and Alaska. These geospatial data are supporting U.S. Geological Survey national-scale mineral deposit database development and other mineral resource and geoenvironmental research as a means of characterizing mineral exposures related to mined and unmined hydrothermally altered rocks and mine waste. This report introduces a new methodology for the automated analysis of Landsat TM data that has been applied to more than 180 scenes covering the western United States. A map of mineral groups and green vegetation produced using this new methodology that covers the western San Juan Mountains, Colorado, and the Four Corners Region is presented. The map is provided as a layered GeoPDF and in GIS-ready digital format. TM data analysis results from other well-studied and mineralogically characterized areas with strong hydrothermal alteration and (or) supergene weathering of near-surface sulfide minerals are also shown and compared with results derived from ASTER data analysis.

Colorado↗

Comparative mineral mapping in the Colorado Mineral Belt using AVIRIS and ASTER remote sensing data

This report presents results of interpretation of spectral remote sensing data covering the eastern Colorado Mineral Belt in central Colorado, USA, acquired by the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensors. This study was part of a multidisciplinary mapping and data integration project at the U.S. Geological Survey that focused on long-term resource planning by land-managing entities in Colorado. The map products were designed primarily for the regional mapping and characterization of exposed surface mineralogy, including that related to hydrothermal alteration and supergene weathering of pyritic rocks. Alteration type was modeled from identified minerals based on standard definitions of alteration mineral assemblages. Vegetation was identified using the ASTER data and subdivided based on per-pixel chlorophyll content (depth of 0.68 micrometer absorption band) and dryness (fit and depth of leaf biochemical absorptions in the shortwave infrared spectral region). The vegetation results can be used to estimate the abundance of fire fuels at the time of data acquisition (2002 and 2003). The AVIRIS- and ASTER-derived mineral mapping results can be readily compared using the toggleable layers in the GeoPDF file, and by using the provided GIS-ready raster datasets. The results relating to mineral occurrence and distribution were an important source of data for studies documenting the effects of mining and un-mined, altered rocks on aquatic ecosystems at the watershed level. These studies demonstrated a high correlation between metal concentrations in streams and the presence of hydrothermal alteration and (or) pyritic mine waste as determined by analysis of the map products presented herein. The mineral mapping results were also used to delineate permissive areas for various mineral deposit types.

Colorado↗

Improved Automated Identification and Mapping of Iron Sulfate Minerals, Other Mineral Groups, and Vegetation using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager Data, San Juan Mountains, Colorado, and Four Corners Region

Multispectral remote sensing data acquired by the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor were analyzed using a new, automated technique to generate a map of exposed mineral and vegetation groups in the western San Juan Mountains, Colo., and the Four Corners Region of the United States. Band ratio results were combined into displayed mineral and vegetation groups using Boolean algebra. New analysis logic has been implemented to exploit the coastal aerosol band in Landsat 8 OLI data and identify concentrations of iron sulfate minerals. These may indicate the presence of near-surface pyrite, which can be a potential nonpoint source of acid rock drainage. Zoned occurrences of iron sulfate minerals in areas surrounding and down gradient of known sources of pyrite have been mapped using this technique. They show high correlation with occurrences of jarosite-bearing mineral assemblages, as mapped using airborne imaging spectrometer data and supporting field verification surveys. Mapping the occurrence of iron sulfate minerals produced by the weathering and oxidation of pyrite in exposed hydrothermally altered rocks can also provide an important indicator of the genetic environment of alteration and the associated mineral deposit type. The automated analysis methodology is being employed to rapidly and cost-effectively generate maps of large regions of the United States in support of U.S. Geological Survey mineral resource and mineral-environmental assessments. This map, which includes the ERDAS IMAGINE thematic raster format in the data release, has been attributed by pixel value with mineral and vegetation group classification data, which can be queried in most image processing and GIS software packages.

Colorado, Utah↗

Ground-Water System in the Chimacum Creek Basin and Surface Water/Ground Water Interaction in Chimacum and Tarboo Creeks and the Big and Little Quilcene Rivers, Eastern Jefferson County, Washington

A detailed study of the ground-water system in the unconsolidated glacial deposits in the Chimacum Creek Basin and the interactions between surface water and ground water in four main drainage basins was conducted in eastern Jefferson County, Washington. The study will assist local watershed planners in assessing the status of the water resources and the potential effects of ground-water development on surface-water systems. A new surficial geologic map of the Chimacum Creek Basin and a series of hydrogeologic sections were developed by incorporating LIDAR imagery, existing map sources, and drillers' logs from 110 inventoried wells. The hydrogeologic framework outlined in the study will help characterize the occurrence of ground water in the unconsolidated glacial deposits and how it interacts with the surface-water system. Water levels measured throughout the study show that the altitude of the water table parallels the surface topography and ranges from 0 to 400 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 across the basin, and seasonal variations in precipitation due to natural cycles generally are on the order of 2 to 3 feet. Synoptic stream-discharge measurements and instream mini-piezometers and piezometers with nested temperature sensors provided additional data to refine the positions of gaining and losing reaches and delineate seasonal variations. Chimacum Creek generally gains water from the shallow ground-water system, except near the community of Chimacum where localized losses occur. In the lower portions of Chimacum Creek, gaining conditions dominate in the summer when creek stages are low and ground-water levels are high, and losing conditions dominate in the winter when creek stages are high relative to ground-water levels. In the Quilcene Bay area, three drainage basins were studied specifically to assess surface water/ground water interactions. The upper reaches of Tarboo Creek generally gain water from the shallow ground-water system throughout most of the year and the lower reaches have little or no gains. The Big Quilcene River generally gains water from the shallow ground-water system after it emerges from a bedrock canyon and loses water from the town of Quilcene to the mouth of the river in Quilcene Bay. The Little Quilcene River generally loses water to the shallow ground-water system, although two localized areas were found to have gaining conditions. The Big Quilcene and Little Quilcene Rivers incur significant losses on the alluvial plain at the head of Quilcene Bay. Each of the creeks examined had a unique pattern of gaining and losing reaches, owing to the hydraulic conductivity of the streambed material and the relative altitude of the surrounding water table. Although the magnitudes of gains and losses varied seasonally, the spatial distribution did not vary greatly, suggesting that patterns of gains and losses in surface-water systems depend greatly on the geology underlying the streambed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Using the tracer-dilution discharge method to develop streamflow records for ice-affected streams in Colorado

Accurate ice-affected streamflow records are difficult to obtain for several reasons, which makes the management of instream-flow water rights in the wintertime a challenging endeavor. This report documents a method to improve ice-affected streamflow records for two gaging stations in Colorado. In January and February 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted an experiment using a sodium chloride tracer to measure streamflow under ice cover by the tracer-dilution discharge method. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of obtaining accurate ice-affected streamflow records by using a sodium chloride tracer that was injected into the stream. The tracer was injected at two gaging stations once per day for approximately 20 minutes for 25 days. Multiple-parameter water-quality sensors at the two gaging stations monitored background and peak chloride concentrations. These data were used to determine discharge at each site. A comparison of the current-meter streamflow record to the tracer-dilution streamflow record shows different levels of accuracy and precision of the tracer-dilution streamflow record at the two sites. At the lower elevation and warmer site, Brandon Ditch near Whitewater, the tracer-dilution method overestimated flow by an average of 14 percent, but this average is strongly biased by outliers. At the higher elevation and colder site, Keystone Gulch near Dillon, the tracer-dilution method experienced problems with the tracer solution partially freezing in the injection line. The partial freezing of the tracer contributed to the tracer-dilution method underestimating flow by 52 percent at Keystone Gulch. In addition, a tracer-pump-reliability test was conducted to test how accurately the tracer pumps can discharge the tracer solution in conditions similar to those used at the gaging stations. Although the pumps were reliable and consistent throughout the 25-day study period, the pumps underdischarged the tracer by 5.8-15.9 percent as compared to the initial pumping rate setting, which may explain some of the error in the tracer-dilution streamflow record as compared to current-meter streamflow record.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Seismic monitoring at Cascade volcanic centers, 2004 — Status and recommendations

The purpose of this report is to assess the current (May, 2004) status of seismic monitoring networks at the 13 major Cascade volcanic centers. Included in this assessment are descriptions of each network, analyses of the ability of each network to detect and to locate seismic activity, identification of specific weaknesses in each network, and a prioritized list of those networks that are most in need of additional seismic stations. At the outset it should be recognized that no Cascade volcanic center currently has an adequate seismic network relative to modern-day networks at Usu Volcano (Japan) or Etna and Stromboli volcanoes (Italy). For a system the size of Three Sisters, for example, a modern-day, cutting-edge seismic network would ideally consist of a minimum of 10 to 12 short-period three-component seismometers (for determining particle motions, reliable S-wave picks, moment tensor inversions, fault-plane solutions, and other important seismic parameters) and 7 to 10 broadband sensors (which, amongst other considerations, enable detection and location of very long period (VLP) and other low-frequency events, moment tensor inversions, and, because of their wide dynamic range, on-scale recording of large-amplitude events). Such a dense, multi component seismic network would give the ability to, for example, detect in near-real-time earthquake migrations over a distance of ~0.5km or less, locate tremor sources, determine the nature of a seismic source (that is, pure shear, implosive, explosive), provide on-scale recordings of very small and very large-amplitude seismic signals, and detect localized changes in seismic stress tensor orientations caused by movement of magma bodies. However, given that programmatic resources are currently limited, installation of such networks at this time is unrealistic. Instead, this report focuses on identifying what additional stations are needed to guarantee that anomalous seismicity associated with volcanic unrest will be detected in a timely manner and, in the case of magnitude = 1 earthquakes, reliably located.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington↗

Total dissolved gas and water temperature in the lower Columbia river, Oregon and Washington, 2004: Quality-assurance data and comparison to water-quality standards

Significant Findings When water is released through the spillways of dams, air is entrained in the water, increasing the downstream concentration of total dissolved gas. Excess dissolved-gas concentrations can have adverse effects on freshwater aquatic life. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), collected total-dissolved-gas (TDG) and water-temperature data at eight sites on the lower Columbia River in 2004. Significant findings from the data include: Variances to the Oregon and Washington water-quality standards for total dissolved gas were exceeded on a few days at three of the monitoring sites: Camas, The Dalles forebay, and Bonneville forebay. These exceedances may have been the result of the cumulative effects of supersaturated water moving downstream through the lower Columbia River. Apparently, the levels of TDG did not dissipate rapidly enough downstream from the dams before reaching the next site. TDG levels at an experimental monitoring site directly below Bonneville Dam at Cascade Island showed a larger response to spill than the site 5.5 miles farther downstream at Warrendale. From mid-July to mid-September, water temperatures were above 20°C (degrees Celsius) at each of the seven lower Columbia River sites. Both the Oregon and Washington water-quality standards contain a numerical standard of 20°C for the lower Columbia River. The new location of the forebay monitoring site at John Day navigation lock showed less daily temperature variation than the previous location. The probe at the new site was farther away from the dam and at a greater depth, so it apparently avoided the daily temperature excursions associated with the surface-layer heating at the previous site. Most field checks of total-dissolved-gas sensors with a secondary standard were within ±1% saturation. Most of the field checks of barometric pressure were within ±1 mm Hg (millimeter of mercury) of a secondary standard, and water temperature field checks were all within ±0.1°C. For the seven monitoring sites used to regulate spill in water year 2004, an average of 99.0% of the total- dissolved-gas data were received in real time by the USGS satellite downlink and were within 1% saturation of the expected value, based on calibration data, replicate quality-control measurements in the river, and comparison to ambient river conditions at adjacent sites.

Oregon, Washington↗

Use of sediment rating curves and optical backscatter data to characterize sediment transport in the Upper Yuba River watershed, California, 2001-03

Sediment transport in the upper Yuba River watershed, California, was evaluated from October 2001 through September 2003. This report presents results of a three-year study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Ecosystem Restoration Program of the California Bay-Delta Authority and the California Resources Agency. Streamflow and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) samples were collected at four gaging stations; however, this report focuses on sediment transport at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) and the South Yuba River (11417500) gaging stations. Seasonal suspended-sediment rating curves were developed using a group-average method and non-linear least-squares regression. Bed-load transport relations were used to develop bed-load rating curves, and bed-load measurements were collected to assess the accuracy of these curves. Annual suspended-sediment loads estimated using seasonal SSC rating curves were compared with previously published annual loads estimated using the Graphical Constituent Loading Analysis System (GCLAS). The percent difference ranged from -85 percent to +54 percent and averaged -7.5 percent. During water year 2003 optical backscatter sensors (OBS) were installed to assess event-based suspended-sediment transport. Event-based suspended-sediment loads calculated using seasonal SSC rating curves were compared with loads calculated using calibrated OBS output. The percent difference ranged from +50 percent to -369 percent and averaged -79 percent. The estimated average annual sediment yield at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) gage (5 tons/mi2) was significantly lower than that estimated at the South Yuba River (11417500) gage (14 tons/mi2). In both rivers, bed load represented 1 percent or less of the total annual load throughout the project period. Suspended sediment at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) and South Yuba River (11417500) gages was typically greater than 85 percent silt and clay during water year 2003, and sand concentrations at the South Yuba River (11417500) gage were typically higher than those at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) gage for a given streamflow throughout the three year project period. Factors contributing to differences in sediment loads and grain-size distributions at the Middle Yuba River (11410000) and South Yuba River (11417500) gages include contributing drainage area, flow diversions, and deposition of bed-material-sized sediment in reservoirs upstream of the Middle Yuba River (11410000) gage. Owing to its larger drainage area, higher flows, and absence of man-made structures that restrict sediment movement in the lower basin, the South Yuba River transports a greater and coarser sediment load.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Nutrient Enrichment in Estuaries from Discharge of Shallow Ground Water, Mt. Desert Island, Maine

Nutrient enrichment from atmospheric deposition, agricultural activities, wildlife, and domestic sources is a concern at Acadia National Park because of the potential problem of water-quality degradation and eutrophication in its estuaries. Water-quality degradation has been observed at the Park?s Bass Harbor Marsh estuary but not in Northeast Creek estuary. Previous studies at Acadia National Park have estimated nutrient inputs to estuaries from atmospheric deposition and surface-water runoff, but the importance of shallow ground water that may contain nutrients derived from domestic or other sources is unknown. Northeast Creek and Bass Harbor Marsh estuaries were studied to (1) identify shallow ground-water seeps, (2) assess the chemistry of the water discharged from selected seeps, and (3) assess the chemistry of ground water in shallow ground-water hyporheic zones. The hyporheic zone is defined here as the region beneath and lateral to a stream bed, where there is mixing of shallow ground water and surface water. This study also provides baseline chemical data for ground water in selected bedrock monitoring wells and domestic wells on Mt. Desert Island. Water samples were analyzed for concentrations of nutrients, wastewater compounds, dissolved organic carbon, pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature and specific conductance. Samples from bedrock monitoring wells also were analyzed for alkalinity, major cations and anions, and trace metals. Shallow ground-water seeps to Northeast Creek and Bass Harbor Marsh estuaries at Acadia National Park were identified and georeferenced using aerial infrared digital imagery. Monitoring included the deployment of continuously recording temperature and specific conductance sensors in the seep discharge zone to access marine or freshwater signatures related to tidal flooding, gradient-driven shallow ground-water flow, or shallow subsurface flow related to precipitation events. Many potential shallow ground-water discharge zones were identified from aerial thermal imagery during flights in May and December 2003 in both estuaries. The occurrence of ground-water seeps was confirmed using continuous and discrete measurements of temperature and specific conductance in selected seeps and in the adjacent estuaries that showed salinity anomalies reflecting the input of freshwater in these complex tidal systems. Analysis of water samples from shallow ground water in the hyporheic zone and from ground-water seeps indicated the presence of elevated concentrations of dissolved nitrogen, compared to concentrations in the adjacent estuaries and surface-water tributaries draining into the estuaries. These findings indicate that shallow ground water is a source of dissolved nitrogen to the estuaries. Orthophosphate levels were low in ground water in the hyporheic zone in Bass Harbor Marsh, but somewhat higher in one hyporheic-zone well in Northeast Creek compared with the concentrations in both estuaries that were at or below detection limits. Household wastewater-related compounds were not detected in ground water in the hyporheic zone. Analysis of water samples from domestic and bedrock monitoring wells developed in fractured bedrock indicated that concentrations of dissolved nitrogen, phosphorus, and household wastewater-related compounds were typically at or below detection, suggesting that the aquifers sampled had not been contaminated from septic sources.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Mapping known and potential mineral occurrences and host rocks in the Bonnifield Mining District using minimal cloud- and snow-cover ASTER data: Chapter E in Recent U.S. Geological Survey studies in the Tintina Gold Province, Alaska, United States, and Yukon, Canada--results of a 5-year project

On July 8, 2003, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor acquired satellite imagery of a 60-kilometer-wide swath covering a portion of the Bonnifield mining district within the southernmost part of the Tintina Gold Province, Alaska, under unusually favorable conditions of minimal cloud and snow cover. Although rocks from more than eight different lithotectonic terranes are exposed within the extended swath of data, we focus on volcanogenic massive sulfides (VMS) and porphyry deposits within the Yukon-Tanana terrane (YTT), the largest Mesozoic accretionary terrane exposed between the Denali fault system to the south of Fairbanks and the Tintina fault system to the north of Fairbanks. Comparison of thermal-infrared region (TIR) decorrelation stretch data to available geologic maps indicates that rocks from the YTT contain a wide range of rock types ranging in composition from mafic metavolcanic rocks to felsic rock types such as metarhyolites, pelitic schists, and quartzites. The nine-band ASTER visible-near-infrared region--short-wave infrared region (VNIR-SWIR) reflectance data and spectral matched-filter processing were used to map hydrothermal alteration patterns associated with VMS and porphyry deposit types. In particular, smectite, kaolinite, opaline silica, jarosite and (or) other ferric iron minerals defined narrow (less than 250-meter diameter) zonal patterns around Red Mountain and other potential VMS targets. Using ASTER we identified some of the known mineral deposits in the region, as well as mineralogically similar targets that may represent potential undiscovered deposits. Some known deposits were not identified and may have been obscured by vegetation or snow cover or were too small to be resolved.

Alaska;Yukon↗

Estimation of Constituent Concentrations, Loads, and Yields in Streams of Johnson County, Northeast Kansas, Using Continuous Water-Quality Monitoring and Regression Models, October 2002 through December 2006

Johnson County is one of the most rapidly developing counties in Kansas. Population growth and expanding urban land use affect the quality of county streams, which are important for human and environmental health, water supply, recreation, and aesthetic value. This report describes estimates of streamflow and constituent concentrations, loads, and yields in relation to watershed characteristics in five Johnson County streams using continuous in-stream sensor measurements. Specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen were monitored in five watersheds from October 2002 through December 2006. These continuous data were used in conjunction with discrete water samples to develop regression models for continuously estimating concentrations of other constituents. Continuous regression-based concentrations were estimated for suspended sediment, total suspended solids, dissolved solids and selected major ions, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus species), and fecal-indicator bacteria. Continuous daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual loads were calculated from concentration estimates and streamflow. The data are used to describe differences in concentrations, loads, and yields and to explain these differences relative to watershed characteristics. Water quality at the five monitoring sites varied according to hydrologic conditions; contributing drainage area; land use (including degree of urbanization); relative contributions from point and nonpoint constituent sources; and human activity within each watershed. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations were less than the Kansas aquatic-life-support criterion of 5.0 mg/L less than 10 percent of the time at all sites except Indian Creek, which had DO concentrations less than the criterion about 15 percent of the time. Concentrations of suspended sediment, chloride (winter only), indicator bacteria, and pesticides were substantially larger during periods of increased streamflow. Suspended-sediment concentration was nearly always largest at the Mill Creek site. The Mill Creek watershed is undergoing rapid development that likely contributed to larger sustained sediment concentrations. During most of the time, the smallest sediment concentrations occurred at the Indian Creek site, the most urban of the monitored sites, likely because most of the streamflow originates from wastewater-treatment facilities located just upstream from the monitoring site. However, estimated annual suspended-sediment load and yield were largest annually at the Indian Creek site because of substantial contributions during storm runoff. At least 90 percent of the total annual sediment load in 2005?06 at all five monitoring sites occurred in less than 2 percent of the time, generally associated with large storm runoff. About 50 percent of the 2005 sediment load at the Blue River site occurred during a single 3-day storm, the equivalent of less than 1 percent of the time. Suspended-sediment concentration is statistically related to other water-quality constituents, and these relations have potential implications for implementation of best management practices because, if sediment concentrations are decreased, concentrations of sediment-associated constituents such as suspended solids, some nutrients, and bacteria will also likely decrease. Chloride concentrations were largest at the Indian and Mill Creek sites, the two most urban stream sites which also are most affected by road-salt runoff and wastewater-treatment-facility discharges. Two chloride runoff occurrences in January?February 2005 accounted for 19 percent of the total chloride load in Indian Creek in 2005. Escherichia coli density at the Indian Creek site was nearly always largest of the five sites with a median density more than double that of any other site and 15 times the density at the Blue River site which is primarily nonurban. More than 97 percent of the fecal coliform bacteria load at the Indian Creek site and near the B

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Characterization of Suspended-Sediment Loading to and from John Redmond Reservoir, East-Central Kansas, 2007-2008

Storage capacity in John Redmond Reservoir is being lost to sedimentation more rapidly than in other federal impoundments in Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, initiated a study to characterize suspended-sediment loading to and from John Redmond Reservoir from February 21, 2007, through February 21, 2008. Turbidity sensors were installed at two U.S. Geological Survey stream gages upstream (Neosho River near Americus and the Cottonwood River near Plymouth) and one stream gage downstream (Neosho River at Burlington) from the reservoir to compute continuous, real-time (15-minute) measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and loading. About 1,120,000 tons of suspended-sediment were transported to, and 100,700 tons were transported from John Redmond Reservoir during the study period. Dependent on the bulk density of sediment stored in the reservoir, 5.0 to 1.4 percent of the storage in the John Redmond conservation pool was lost during the study period, with an average deposition of 3.4 to 1.0 inches. Nearly all (98-99 percent) of the incoming sediment load was transported during 9 storms which occurred 25 to 27 percent of the time. The largest storm during the study period (peak-flow recurrence interval of about 4.6-4.9 years) transported about 37 percent of the sediment load to the reservoir. Suspended-sediment yield from the unregulated drainage area upstream from the Neosho River near Americus was 530 tons per square mile, compared to 400 tons per square mile upstream from the Cottonwood River near Plymouth. Comparison of historical (1964-78) to current (2007) sediment loading estimates indicate statistically insignificant (<90 percent confidence) differences at the Neosho River near Americus and the Cottonwood River near Plymouth, but a significant (>99 percent) decrease in sediment loading at the Neosho River at Burlington. Ninety-percent confidence intervals of streamflow-derived estimates of total sediment load were 7 to 21 times larger than turbidity-derived estimates. Results from this study can be used by natural resource managers to calibrate sediment models and estimate the ability of John Redmond Reservoir to support designated uses into the future.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Atmospheric Deposition and Surface-Water Chemistry in Mount Rainier and North Cascades National Parks, U.S.A., Water Years 2000 and 2005-2006

High-elevation aquatic ecosystems in Mount Rainier and North Cascades National Parks are highly sensitive to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur. Thin, rocky soils promote fast hydrologic flushing rates during snowmelt and rain events, limiting the ability of basins to neutralize acidity and assimilate nitrogen deposited from the atmosphere. Potential effects of nitrogen and sulfur deposition include episodic or chronic acidification of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In addition, nitrogen deposition can cause eutrophication of water bodies and changes in species composition in lakes and streams. This report documents results of a study performed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, of the effects of atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur on surface-water chemistry in Mount Rainier and North Cascades National Parks. Inorganic nitrogen in wet deposition was highest in the vicinity of North Cascades National Park, perhaps due to emissions from human sources and activities in the Puget Sound area. Sulfur in wet deposition was highest near the Pacific coast, reflecting the influence of marine aerosols. Dry deposition generally accounted for less than 30 percent of wet plus dry inorganic nitrogen and sulfur deposition, but occult deposition (primarily fog) represents a potentially substantial unmeasured component of total deposition. Trend analyses indicate inorganic nitrogen in wet deposition was relatively stable during 1986-2005, but sulfur in wet deposition declined substantially during that time, particularly after 2001, when emissions controls were added to a large powerplant in western Washington. Surface-water sulfate concentrations at the study site nearest the powerplant showed a statistically significant decrease between 2000 and 2005-06, but there was no statistically significant change in alkalinity, indicating a delayed response in surface-water alkalinity. Seasonal patterns in surface-water chemistry and streamflow are strongly influenced by melting of seasonal snowpacks, which release large amounts of dilute, slightly acidic water to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems during spring snowmelt. Concentrations of sulfate, alkalinity, and base cations in surface water declined rapidly during snowmelt, then gradually recovered during summer and fall. Preferential elution of acidic solutes from the snowpack at the beginning of snowmelt may cause episodic acidification in small alpine streams; evidence is provided by a stream sample collected at one of the sites during spring 2006 that was acidic (pH = 4.8, alkalinity = -18 microequivalents per liter) and had high concentrations of nitrate and sulfate and low concentrations of weathering products. Rain-on-snow events caused sharp declines in specific conductance, which was measured continuously using an in-stream sensor. A strong correlation was observed between measured specific conductance and measured alkalinity (r2 = 0.76), permitting estimation of alkalinity from specific-conductance data using a regression equation. Estimated alkalinity declined by an order of magnitude during the rain-on-snow events, in one case to 8 microequivalents per liter. Actual declines in alkalinity might be greater because the regression equation accounts only for dilution effects; at low concentrations, the relation between specific conductance and alkalinity is likely to be nonlinear and have a negative intercept (negative alkalinity). Thus, episodic acidification is possible during rain-on-snow events. The scale of episodic acidification is unknown, but if it occurs, it could have detrimental effects on aquatic life and amphibians. Historical lake-survey data indicate that most lakes are oligotrophic and have low nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations. Nitrogen limitation is more common in lakes in Mount Rainier National Park than in North Cascades National Park due to higher nitrate concentrations at North Cascades. T

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Continuous Turbidity Monitoring in the Indian Creek Watershed, Tazewell County, Virginia, 2006-08

Thousands of miles of natural gas pipelines are installed annually in the United States. These pipelines commonly cross streams, rivers, and other water bodies during pipeline construction. A major concern associated with pipelines crossing water bodies is increased sediment loading and the subsequent impact to the ecology of the aquatic system. Several studies have investigated the techniques used to install pipelines across surface-water bodies and their effect on downstream suspended-sediment concentrations. These studies frequently employ the evaluation of suspended-sediment or turbidity data that were collected using discrete sample-collection methods. No studies, however, have evaluated the utility of continuous turbidity monitoring for identifying real-time sediment input and providing a robust dataset for the evaluation of long-term changes in suspended-sediment concentration as it relates to a pipeline crossing. In 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with East Tennessee Natural Gas and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, began a study to monitor the effects of construction of the Jewell Ridge Lateral natural gas pipeline on turbidity conditions below pipeline crossings of Indian Creek and an unnamed tributary to Indian Creek, in Tazewell County, Virginia. The potential for increased sediment loading to Indian Creek is of major concern for watershed managers because Indian Creek is listed as one of Virginia's Threatened and Endangered Species Waters and contains critical habitat for two freshwater mussel species, purple bean (Villosa perpurpurea) and rough rabbitsfoot (Quadrula cylindrical strigillata). Additionally, Indian Creek contains the last known reproducing population of the tan riffleshell (Epioblasma florentina walkeri). Therefore, the objectives of the U.S. Geological Survey monitoring effort were to (1) develop a continuous turbidity monitoring network that attempted to measure real-time changes in suspended sediment (using turbidity as a surrogate) downstream from the pipeline crossings, and (2) provide continuous turbidity data that enable the development of a real-time turbidity-input warning system and assessment of long-term changes in turbidity conditions. Water-quality conditions were assessed using continuous water-quality monitors deployed upstream and downstream from the pipeline crossings in Indian Creek and the unnamed tributary. These paired upstream and downstream monitors were outfitted with turbidity, pH (for Indian Creek only), specific-conductance, and water-temperature sensors. Water-quality data were collected continuously (every 15 minutes) during three phases of the pipeline construction: pre-construction, during construction, and post-construction. Continuous turbidity data were evaluated at various time steps to determine whether the construction of the pipeline crossings had an effect on downstream suspended-sediment conditions in Indian Creek and the unnamed tributary. These continuous turbidity data were analyzed in real time with the aid of a turbidity-input warning system. A warning occurred when turbidity values downstream from the pipeline were 6 Formazin Nephelometric Units or 15 percent (depending on the observed range) greater than turbidity upstream from the pipeline crossing. Statistical analyses also were performed on monthly and phase-of-construction turbidity data to determine if the pipeline crossing served as a long-term source of sediment. Results of this intensive water-quality monitoring effort indicate that values of turbidity in Indian Creek increased significantly between the upstream and downstream water-quality monitors during the construction of the Jewell Ridge pipeline. The magnitude of the significant turbidity increase, however, was small (less than 2 Formazin Nephelometric Units). Patterns in the continuous turbidity data indicate that the actual pipeline crossing of Indian Creek had little influence of downstream water quality; co

Scientific Investigations Report↗