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USGS2012

Emerging prion disease drives host selection in a wildlife population

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2015

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays ( Aphelocoma insularis ), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Ecology↗

USGS1994

Habitat use by an endangered riverine fish and implications for species protection

We investigated habitat specificity of the amber darter (Percina antesella Williams & Etnier 1977), an imperiled fish from restricted portions of 2 rivers in the southeastern United States. Foraging amber darters occupied a narrow range of riffle habitat, consistently avoiding areas < 20 cm deep and with velocity < 10 cm. s-1 near the substrate, occupying areas with cobble or gravel substrate and average water-column velocity of 30 to 70 cm. s-1. During low to moderate flows, approximately 20% or more of the study areas contained suitable habitat for the species. Amber darters appeared rare, and the numbers of individuals were uncorrelated with the concurrent availability of suitable habitat. Protecting the amber darter may require more than maintaining adequate depths and velocities over gravel-cobble substrates. Until we understand the potential importance of migration and dispersal for maintaining small populations, suitable habitat should be maintained over the longest contiguous stream segments possible.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

USGS2022

Occurrence of a reproducing wild population of Channa aurolineata (Pisces: Channidae) in the Manatee River drainage, Florida

We report on the discovery of a wild, reproducing population of Channa aurolineata (Pisces: Channidae) in west-central Florida (USA), and first documented occurrence of snakeheads in the Gulf Coast region. Channa aurolineata is a large, predatory fish of the bullseye snakehead “Marulius group” species complex from Asia. Adult and juvenile specimens were captured in June 2020 in a 1.8-hectare pond that connects during high water to a small stream within the Manatee River-Tampa Bay Basin. The pond site is 250-km from the only other wild C. aurolineata population in the USA (present in southeast Florida since ca. 2000) and is considered a separate introduction and not the result of natural dispersal. Morphological and molecular comparisons revealed high overlap between the two Florida populations, evidence humans may have transported fish between sites. To verify identification, we compared Florida samples to C. aurolineata from Thailand and found mtDNA-COI barcode sequences to be identical or to differ by only a single base pair. Life body coloration of Florida samples matched their Asian counterparts, but Florida specimens averaged fewer dorsal fin rays (53.6 vs. 56.0), anal fin rays (34.2 vs 36.1), lateral line scales (65.3 vs. 67.4), and vertebrae (62.1 vs. 64.3), differences implying possible founder effect or sampling bias. Existence of this invasive predator is a concern because of the risk of spread and negative ecological effects, including an observation of terrestrial hunting behavior. In 2020–2021, several hundred C. aurolineata were removed from the pond by nets and electrofishing, and surveys suggested the population had not spread to nearby waters. In May 2021 the pond was treated with rotenone and 48 more specimens were recovered. No additional snakeheads have been sighted since the piscicide operation, although verification of eradication will require monitoring of the watershed.

Florida↗

USGS2001

Conservation endocrinology: A noninvasive tool to understand relationships between carnivore colonization and ecological carrying capacity

Reproductive technology, especially the diagnosis of pregnancy by radioimmunoassay of fecal steroid metabolites, is an important component of captive propagation, but its role in our understanding of ecological interactions and in situ biological restoration has been more limited. Where large herbivores have been 'released' from predation by the extirpation of carnivores, controversy often exists about possible detrimental effects at the ecosystem level A related concern is that the reestablishment of large carnivores may decrease the availability of prey populations for human subsistence. We suggest that pregnancy assays can be a valuable tool to help distinguish between the roles of predation versus food-imposed limitations on population size and their effects on juvenile recruitment in wild species. We explored this issue through analyses of fecal progestagen concentration (FPC) levels to document pregnancy in moose (Alces alces) in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, a site where wolves (Canis lupus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) are recolonizing former habitats after an absence of more than 60 years. Pregnancy was clearly discernible (mean FPC for pregnant and nonpregnant females, respectively: 10.60 vs. 2.57 ??g/g; p < 0.0001). Among the potential confounding variables that need to be considered if FPC is applied to ecological and demographic questions are whether baseline values are affected by handling, whether neonate survival has been assessed, and whether sampling efforts are directed at both pregnant and nonpregnant animals. With these issues accounted for, the local moose population experienced juvenile survival rates among the highest in North America. Pregnancy rates, however, dropped from 90% in 1966 to about 75% today, rendering them in the lowest fifteenth percentile among moose populations in North America. Our findings suggest that a relatively low frequency of juvenile moose is not the likely result of predation, and they illustrate how endocrinology can be applied to issues involving reproductive events within an ecological context. They also affirm that noninvasive and generally inexpensive endocrinological procedures will be applicable to understanding interactions between recolonizing predators and prey, an issue that will continue to arise because of global restoration efforts, and to the study of rare ungulates in remote systems where data on reproductive events are difficult to obtain.

Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Long-term monitoring in transition: Resolving spatial mismatch and integrating multistate occupancy data

The success of long-term wildlife monitoring programs can be influenced by many factors and study designs often represent compromises between spatial scales and costs. Adaptive monitoring programs can iteratively manage this tension by adopting new cost-efficient technologies, which can provide projects the opportunity to reallocate costs to address new hypotheses, adapt to changing ecological conditions, or adjust sampling scale or resolution. If there is interest in longer time series of monitoring data, methodological transitions may necessitate integrated models to link newer data with historical data. However, data integration can be difficult if spatial or temporal scales are mismatched. Here, we develop an integrated multistate site-occupancy model and resolve sample unit spatial mismatch to link datasets from two northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) monitoring schemes that broadly overlapped during a methodological transition. The first dataset was obtained from a decades-long spotted owl monitoring program using call-playback and mark-resight surveys on historical territories of varying size and shape. This monitoring program has recently transitioned to passive acoustic monitoring of randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons over larger spatial extents. Both monitoring datasets overlapped with areas in which barred owl ( Strix varia ), an invasive competitor that has played an important role in northern spotted owl declines, were being removed experimentally. Reconciling spatial mismatch substantially increased the representation of the call-playback dataset and integrating the two datasets increased precision of spotted owl use and paired occupancy estimates relative to single dataset estimates. Estimates of spotted owl pair occupancy across the study area were lower than previous territory-based estimates based on call-playback surveys. Our integrated model further showed that a concurrent barred owl removal experiment increased landscape use and site occupancy by pairs of spotted owls. Our empirical application of an integrated modelling approach demonstrates a useful analytical framework for long-term monitoring efforts undergoing methodological transitions (e.g. mark-recapture to non-invasive population monitoring). This framework allows monitoring programs to maintain continuity of monitoring objectives across methodological transitions, rigorously incorporate previous findings, and adaptively respond to changing ecological conditions.

Oregon↗

USGS2026

Biome-scale spatial patterns of avian abundance reveal proactive conservation opportunities in North American grasslands

North American grassland birds have experienced steeper population declines than any other avian guild, yet conservation efforts remain largely reactive and fragmented. We used nearly four decades of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to identify biome-scale spatial patterns (clustering) of grassland bird abundance for the Great Plains. Our results reveal an ecological core in the north-central Plains where community-level abundance is either increasing by >100% or remains high and stable, providing a strategic roadmap for a “Defend the Core” conservation approach. This approach flips the script from reactive triage centered on isolated population fragments to a proactive strategy of maintaining large-scale ecosystem integrity. Conversely, we found that population losses are more spatially clustered than wins, reflecting the relentless, one-way movement of woody encroachment and agricultural conversion. This asymmetry supports prioritizing intact landscapes, as current restoration rates are often outpaced by the scale of habitat loss. Notably, we found that community-level spatial clustering is a more robust indicator of biome condition than trends of individual flagship species, suggesting that managing for ecosystem integrity provides a more effective multi-species umbrella. Given our results, there is an opportunity for operationalizing a Great Plains Conservation Design that is ecosystem-centric and rooted in the sustainability of the private-land cattle production that maintains these open spaces. By leveraging avian abundance as a biological sensor, managers and producers can deploy a shared vision that matches the spatial scale of the threats, moving from reactive triage to proactive defense of core working grasslands in North America.

Great Plains biome↗

USGS2005

Inducible defenses in food webs: Chapter 3.4

This chapter reviews the predicted effects of induced defenses on trophic structure and two aspects of stability, “local” stability and persistence, as well as presenting novel results on a third, resilience. Food webs are structures of populations in a given location organized according to their predator–prey interactions. Interaction strengths and, therefore, prey defenses are generally recognized as important ecological factors affecting food webs. Despite this, surprisingly, little light has been shed on the food web-level consequences of inducible defenses. Inducible defenses occur in many taxa in both terrestrial and aquatic food webs. They include refuge use, reduced activity, adaptive life history changes, the production of toxins, synomones and extrafloral nectar, and the formation of colonies, helmets, thorns, or spines. In the chapter, theoretical results for the effects of inducible defenses on trophic structure and the three aspects of stability are reviewed. This is done, in part, using bifurcation analysis—a type of analysis that is applied to nonlinear dynamic systems described by a set of ordinary differential or difference equations. The work presented in the chapter suggests that heterogeneity, as caused by induced defenses in prey species, has major effects on the functioning of food webs. Inducible defenses occur in many species in both aquatic and terrestrial systems, and theoretical work indicates they have major effects on important food web properties such as trophic structure, local stability, persistence, and resilience.

Book chapter↗

USGS2026

Fostering landscape resilience and species conservation in frequent fire landscapes

Restoration of dry forest landscapes of the Pacific Northwest often involves the removal of some closed-canopy forest that has expanded due to fire exclusion, but this can conflict with species conservation when species require closed-canopy forest as part of their habitat. Fire refugia—areas within fire perimeters that burn less severely or frequently—might provide a solution to this conflict. We used a species-specific approach to understanding fire refugia for northern spotted owls to model the post-fire persistence of nesting and roosting (NR) forest in the frequent fire landscapes of the eastern Washington Cascades and the Klamath province and parts of the southern Cascades. Persistent NR forest occurred in topographically sheltered locations and lower slope positions whereas less persistent NR forest occurred in topographically exposed locations. These patterns of persistence reflect historical vegetation patterns when complex interactions among topography, vegetation and weather maintained resilient landscapes. These vegetation patterns may also resemble higher quality heterogenous habitat for spotted owls. Our models can help managers achieve the dual objectives of maintaining viable populations of native species, including those that rely on closed-canopy forests, while also restoring resilient landscapes. In an era of rapid ecological change, we suggest that northern spotted owl conservation and fire-adapted landscape restoration are not opposing goals. By identifying the biophysical settings that promote persistent NR forest and acknowledging the role of heterogeneous landscapes for maintaining resilient ecosystems and high quality spotted owl habitat, the dual objectives of supporting long-term resilience for native species and ecosystems can be achieved.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS1994

Ecological comparisons of Lake Erie tributaries with elevated incidence of fish tumors

Ecological comparisons were made between two Lake Erie tributaries (Black and Cuyahoga rivers) with contaminated sediments and elevated rates of tumors in fish populations and a third, relatively unpolluted, reference tributary, the Huron River. Fish populations, benthic invertebrates, and sediments were evaluated in all three Ohio rivers. Community structure analyses indicated similar total densities but lower species diversity for fish and benthic invertebrates in the contaminated rivers when compared with the reference river. Growth rates in fish from the contaminated areas were either similar to or higher than those offish from the reference site. Brown bullhead ( Ameiurus nebulosus ) from the two contaminated tributaries exhibited 51% (Black River) and 45% (Cuyahoga River) incidence of liver lesions (neoplastic and preneoplastic) as compared with a 4% incidence of liver lesions in brown bullhead from the reference river (Huron River). Incidence of external abnormalities on brown bullhead was 54% (Black River) and 73% (Cuyahoga River) as compared with a 14% incidence on fish from the Huron River. On a regional basis, incidence of external abnormalities on particular benthic fish species may be an effective method to quickly indicate areas for more intensive contaminant studies.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2013

Using diets to reveal overlap and egg predation among benthivorous fishes in Lake Michigan

Ecological stability in the Laurentian Great Lakes has been altered by nonindigenous species, such as the Round Goby Neogobius melanostomus and dreissenid mussels, and by declines in native amphipods Diporeia spp. We evaluated whether these changes could influence diet overlap between three benthivorous fishes (Slimy Sculpin Cottus cognatus, Deepwater Sculpin Myoxocephalus thompsonii, and Round Goby) and whether predation on eggs of native species was occurring. We examined diets of fish collected at depths of 69–128 m in Lake Michigan offshore of Frankfort and Muskegon, Michigan, and Two Rivers and Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin, during January–May 2009 and 2010. Important prey (by dry weight proportion and by percent frequency of occurrence) for Slimy Sculpin were Mysis (0.34; 45%), Diporeia (0.16; 34%), and Limnocalanus macrurus (0.22; 68%); important prey for Deepwater Sculpin were Mysis (0.74; 92%) and Diporeia (0.16; 54%). Round Goby consumed mainly bivalves (i.e., dreissenids: 0.68; 95%) and Mysis (0.15; 37%). The two sculpin species consumed the eggs of Bloaters Coregonus hoyi (Slimy Sculpin: 0.04, 11%; Deepwater Sculpin: 0.02, 7%) and the eggs of Deepwater Sculpin (Slimy Sculpin: 0.03, 13%; Deepwater Sculpin: 0.05, 16%) during February–May at all sites. Round Goby also consumed eggs of these species but at lower levels (≤0.01; <1%). Diet overlap was identified between sculpin species at Frankfort and Sturgeon Bay, suggesting possible interspecific competition, but their diets did not overlap at Two Rivers; diet overlap was never observed between Round Goby and either sculpin species. Given that (1) diet overlap varied by site and (2) diet proportions varied spatially more than temporally, benthivores appear to be exhibiting localized responses to recent ecological changes. Overall, these results reveal that egg predation and interspecific competition could be important interactions to consider in future examinations of the population dynamics of these species or in ecosystem models that forecast how fisheries will respond to possible perturbations or management scenarios.

Michigan↗

USGS1998

Dietary protein and chlorogenic acid effect on baculoviral disease of noctuid (Lepidoptera: noctuidae) larvae

Insecticidal pathogens such as baculoviruses are currently under intensive development as biorational agents for the control of lepidopteran pests. However, because the efficacy of these orally infective viruses is influenced by host diet, our ability to use baculoviruses effectively in an integrated pest management program requires understanding the influence of dietary components on the disease process. Nutritional stress caused by differences in the quality (casein or soy) or quantity (0–8%) of dietary protein altered the postinfectional course of disease caused by Autographa californica M nucelopolyhedrovirus in 2 species of noctuids, Heliothis virescens (F.) and Trichoplusia ni (Hübner). Lethal times of larvae infected with either the wild-type virus or a recombinant expressing a scorpion toxin (AaIT) derived from this parent virus were similarly affected by dietary protein. In general, the higher the level of dietary protein the shorter the lethal times. However, the influence of protein quality on lethal times depended on the insect species tested. The effect of chlorogenic acid on disease depended on dietary protein levels. At high protein concentrations, chlorogenic acid decreased speed of kill; whereas, at low protein levels, the phenolic had the opposite effect. The common factor among all treatments was that the faster larvae grew, the faster they died from viral infection. We suggest that insects that grow faster may support faster rates of viral replication in infected hosts. From an ecological perspective, it is possible that plants of higher protein content may increase the potential for the development of baculoviral epizootics in insect populations.

Environmental Entomology↗

USGS2013

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2017

Status of White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus Richardson, 1863) throughout the species range, threats to survival, and prognosis for the future

White Sturgeon, Acipenser transmontanus (WS), are distributed throughout three major river basins on the West Coast of North America: the Sacramento-San Joaquin, Columbia, and Fraser River drainages. Considered the largest North American freshwater fish, some WS use estuarine habitat and make limited marine movements between river basins. Some populations are listed by the United States or Canada as threatened or endangered (upper Columbia River above Grand Coulee Dam; Kootenai River; lower, middle and, upper Fraser River and Nechako River), while others do not warrant federal listing at this time (Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers; Columbia River below Grand Coulee Dam; Snake River). Threats that impact WS throughout the species’ range include fishing effects and habitat alteration and degradation. Several populations suffer from recruitment limitations or collapse due to high early life mortality associated with these threats. Efforts to preserve WS populations include annual monitoring, harvest restrictions, habitat restoration, and conservation aquaculture. This paper provides a review of current knowledge on WS life history, ecology, physiology, behavior, and genetics and presents the status of WS in each drainage. Ongoing management and conservation efforts and additional research needs are identified to address present and future risks to the species.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology↗

USGS2003

Long-term ecosystem repsonse to the Exxon Valdez oil spill

The ecosystem response to the 1989 spill of oil from the Exxon Valdez into Prince William Sound, Alaska, shows that current practices for assessing ecological risks of oil in the oceans and, by extension, other toxic sources should be changed. Previously, it was assumed that impacts to populations derive almost exclusively from acute mortality. However, in the Alaskan coastal ecosystem, unexpected persistence of toxic subsurface oil and chronic exposures, even at sublethal levels, have continued to affect wildlife. Delayed population reductions and cascades of indirect effects postponed recovery. Development of ecosystem-based toxicology is required to understand and ultimately predict chronic, delayed, and indirect long-term risks and impacts.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) as restoration bioindicators in the Florida Everglades

The federally threatened American crocodile ( Crocodylus acutus ) is a flagship species and ecological indicator of hydrologic restoration in the Florida Everglades. We conducted a long-term capture-recapture study on the South Florida population of American crocodiles from 1978 to 2015 to evaluate the effects of restoration efforts to more historic hydrologic conditions. The study produced 10,040 crocodile capture events of 9,865 individuals and more than 90% of captures were of hatchlings. Body condition and growth rates of crocodiles were highly age-structured with younger crocodiles presenting with the poorest body condition and highest growth rates. Mean crocodile body condition in this study was 2.14±0.35 SD across the South Florida population. Crocodiles exposed to hypersaline conditions (> 40 psu) during the dry season maintained lower body condition scores and reduced growth rate by 13% after one year, by 24% after five years, and by 29% after ten years. Estimated hatchling survival for the South Florida population was 25% increasing with ontogeny and reaching near 90% survival at year six. Hatchling survival was 34% in NE Florida Bay relative to a 69% hatchling survival at Crocodile Lake National Wildlife Refuge and 53% in Flamingo area of Everglades National Park. Hypersaline conditions negatively affected survival, growth and body condition and was most pronounced in NE Florida Bay, where the hydrologic conditions have been most disturbed. The American crocodile, a long-lived animal, with relatively slow growth rate provides an excellent model system to measure the effects of altered hydropatterns in the Everglades landscape. These results illustrate the need for continued long-term monitoring to assess system-wide restoration outcomes and inform resource managers.

Florida↗

USGS2018

Advancing dendrochronological studies of fire in the United States

Dendroecology is the science that dates tree rings to their exact calendar year of formation to study processes that influence forest ecology (e.g., Speer 2010 , Amoroso et al., 2017 ). Reconstruction of past fire regimes is a core application of dendroecology, linking fire history to population dynamics and climate effects on tree growth and survivorship. Since the early 20th century when dendrochronologists recognized that tree rings retained fire scars (e.g., Figure 1) , and hence a record of past fires, they have conducted studies worldwide to reconstruct the historical range and variability of fire regimes (e.g., frequency, severity, seasonality, spatial extent), the influence of fire regimes on forest structure and ecosystem dynamics, and the top-down (e.g., climate) and bottom-up (e.g., fuels, topography) drivers of fire that operate at a range of temporal and spatial scales. As in other scientific fields, continued application of dendrochronological techniques to study fires has shaped new trajectories for the science. Here we highlight some important current directions in the United States (US) and call on our international colleagues to continue the conversation with perspectives from other countries.

Fire↗

USGS2019

Estimating connectivity of hard clam (Mercenaria mercenaria) and eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) larvae in Barnegat Bay

Many marine organisms have a well-known adult sessile stage. Unfortunately, our lack of knowledge regarding their larval transient stage hinders our understanding of their basic ecology and connectivity. Larvae can have swimming behavior that influences their transport within the marine environment. Understanding the larval stage provides insight into population connectivity that can help strategically identify areas for restoration. Current techniques for understanding the larval stage include modeling that combines particle attributes (e.g., larval behavior) with physical processes of water movement to contribute to our understanding of connectivity trends. This study builds on those methods by using a previously developed retention clock matrix (RCM) to illustrate time dependent connectivity of two species of shellfish between areas and over a range of larval durations. The RCM was previously used on physical parameters but we expand the concept by applying it to biology. A new metric, difference RCM (DRCM), is introduced to quantify changes in connectivity under different scenarios. Broad spatial trends were similar for all behavior types with a general south to north progression of particles. The DRCMs illustrate differences between neutral particles and those with behavior in northern regions where stratification was higher, indicating that larval behavior influenced transport. Based on these findings, particle behavior led to small differences (north to south movement) in transport patterns in areas with higher salinity gradients (the northern part of the system) compared to neutral particles. Overall, the dominant direction for particle movement was from south to north, which at times was enhanced by winds from the south. Clam and oyster restoration in the southern portion of Barnegat Bay could serve as a larval supply for populations in the north. These model results show that coupled hydrodynamic and particle tracking models have implications for fisheries management and restoration activities.

New Jersey↗