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Stochastic empirical loading and dilution model (SELDM) version 1.0.0

The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) is designed to transform complex scientific data into meaningful information about the risk of adverse effects of runoff on receiving waters, the potential need for mitigation measures, and the potential effectiveness of such management measures for reducing these risks. The U.S. Geological Survey developed SELDM in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration to help develop planning-level estimates of event mean concentrations, flows, and loads in stormwater from a site of interest and from an upstream basin. Planning-level estimates are defined as the results of analyses used to evaluate alternative management measures; planning-level estimates are recognized to include substantial uncertainties (commonly orders of magnitude). SELDM uses information about a highway site, the associated receiving-water basin, precipitation events, stormflow, water quality, and the performance of mitigation measures to produce a stochastic population of runoff-quality variables. SELDM provides input statistics for precipitation, prestorm flow, runoff coefficients, and concentrations of selected water-quality constituents from National datasets. Input statistics may be selected on the basis of the latitude, longitude, and physical characteristics of the site of interest and the upstream basin. The user also may derive and input statistics for each variable that are specific to a given site of interest or a given area. SELDM is a stochastic model because it uses Monte Carlo methods to produce the random combinations of input variable values needed to generate the stochastic population of values for each component variable. SELDM calculates the dilution of runoff in the receiving waters and the resulting downstream event mean concentrations and annual average lake concentrations. Results are ranked, and plotting positions are calculated, to indicate the level of risk of adverse effects caused by runoff concentrations, flows, and loads on receiving waters by storm and by year. Unlike deterministic hydrologic models, SELDM is not calibrated by changing values of input variables to match a historical record of values. Instead, input values for SELDM are based on site characteristics and representative statistics for each hydrologic variable. Thus, SELDM is an empirical model based on data and statistics rather than theoretical physiochemical equations. SELDM is a lumped parameter model because the highway site, the upstream basin, and the lake basin each are represented as a single homogeneous unit. Each of these source areas is represented by average basin properties, and results from SELDM are calculated as point estimates for the site of interest. Use of the lumped parameter approach facilitates rapid specification of model parameters to develop planning-level estimates with available data. The approach allows for parsimony in the required inputs to and outputs from the model and flexibility in the use of the model. For example, SELDM can be used to model runoff from various land covers or land uses by using the highway-site definition as long as representative water quality and impervious-fraction data are available.

Techniques and Methods↗

Estimating salinity intrusion effects due to climate change along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina coast

The ability of water-resource managers to adapt to future climatic change is especially challenging in coastal regions of the world. The East Coast of the United States falls into this category given the high number of people living along the Atlantic seaboard and the added strain on resources as populations continue to increase, particularly in the Southeast. Increased temperatures, changes in regional precipitation regimes, and potential increased sea level would have a great impact on existing hydrological systems in the region. Six reservoirs in North Carolina discharge into the Pee Dee River, which flows 160 miles through South Carolina to the coastal communities near Myrtle Beach, SC. During the Southeast’s record-breaking drought from 1998 to 2002, salinity intrusions inundated a coastal municipal freshwater intake, limiting water supplies. Salinity intrusion results from the interaction of three principal forces - streamflow, mean tidal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze, model, and simulate hydrodynamic behaviors at critical coastal streamgages along the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) near Myrtle Beach, SC, data-mining techniques were applied to over 20 years of hourly streamflow, coastal water-quality, and water-level data. Artificial neural network (ANN) models were trained to learn the variable interactions that cause salinity intrusions. Streamflow from the 12,700 square-mile Pee Dee River Basin that flows into the AIW are input to the model as time-delayed variables and accumulated tributary inflows. Tidal inputs to the models were obtained by decomposing tidal water-level data into a “periodic” signal of tidal range and a “chaotic” signal of mean water levels. The ANN models were able to convincingly reproduce historical behaviors and generate alternative scenarios of interest. To evaluate the impact of climate change on salinity intrusion, inputs of streamflows and mean tidal water levels were modified to incorporate estimated changes in precipitation patterns and sea-level rise appropriate for the Southeastern United States. Changes in mean tidal water levels were changed parametrically for various sea-level rise conditions. Preliminary model results at the U.S. Geological Survey Pawleys Island streamgage (station 02110125) near a municipal freshwater intake indicate that a sea-level rise of 1 foot (ft, 30.5 centimeters [cm]) would double the frequency of water with a specific conductance value of 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter close to 4 percent. A 2 ft (61 cm) sea-level rise would quadruple the frequency to 9 percent.

South Carolina↗

Geohydrology of the Aucilla-Suwannee-Ochlockonee River Basin, south-central Georgia and adjacent parts of Florida

Major streams and tributaries located in the Aucilla-Suwannee-Ochlockonee (ASO) River Basin of south-central Georgia and adjacent parts of Florida drain about 8,000 square miles of a layered sequence of clastic and carbonate sediments and carbonate Coastal Plain sediments consisting of the surficial aquifer system, upper semiconfining unit, Upper Floridan aquifer, and lower confining unit. Streams either flow directly on late-middle Eocene to Oligocene karst limestone or carve a dendritic drainage pattern into overlying Miocene to Holocene sand, silt, and clay, facilitating water exchange and hydraulic connection with geohydrologic units. Geologic structures operating in the ASO River Basin through time control sedimentation and influence geohydrology and water exchange between geohydrologic units and surface water. More than 300 feet (ft) of clastic sediments overlie the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Gulf Trough-Apalachicola Embayment, a broad area extending from the southwest to the northeast through the center of the basin. These clastic sediments limit hydraulic connection and water exchange between the Upper Floridan aquifer, the surficial aquifer system, and surface water. Accumulation of more than 350 ft of low-permeability sediments in the Southeast Georgia Embayment and Suwannee Strait hydraulically isolates the Upper Floridan aquifer from land-surface hydrologic processes in the Okefenokee Basin physiographic district. Burial of limestone beneath thick clastic overburden in these areas virtually eliminates karst processes, resulting in low aquifer hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficient despite an aquifer thickness of more than 900 ft. Conversely, uplift and faulting associated with regional tectonics and the northern extension of the Peninsular Arch caused thinning and erosion of clastic sediments overlying the Upper Floridan aquifer southeast of the Gulf Trough-Apalachicola Embayment near the Florida-Georgia State line. Limestone dissolution in Brooks and Lowndes Counties, Ga., create karst features that enhance water-transmitting and storage properties of the Upper Floridan aquifer, promoting groundwater recharge and water exchange between the aquifer, land surface, and surface water. Structural control of groundwater flow and hydraulic properties combine with climatic effects and increased hydrologic stress from agricultural pumpage to yield unprecedented groundwater-level decline in the northwestern and central parts of the ASO River Basin. Hydrographs from continuous-record observation wells in these regions document declining groundwater levels, indicating diminished water-resource potential of the Upper Floridan aquifer through time. More than 24 ft of groundwater-level decline occurred along the basin's northwestern boundary with the lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, lowering hydraulic gradients that provide the potential for groundwater flow into the ASO River Basin and southeastward across the Gulf Trough-Apalachicola Embayment region. Slow-moving groundwater across the trough-embayment region coupled with downward-vertical flow from upper to lower limestone units composing the Upper Floridan aquifer resulted in 40-50 ft of groundwater-level decline since 1969 in southeastern Colquitt County. Multi-year episodes of dry climatic conditions during the 1980s through the early 2000s contributed to seasonal and long-term groundwater-level decline by reducing recharge to the Upper Floridan aquifer and increasing hydrologic stress by agricultural pumpage. Unprecedented and continued groundwater-level decline since 1969 caused 40-50 ft of aquifer dewatering in southeastern Colquitt County that reduced aquifer transmissivity and the ability to supply groundwater to wells, resulting in depletion of the groundwater resource.

Florida, Georgia↗

Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1)for the Conterminous United States: Contact Time, 2002

This data set represents the average contact time, in units of days, compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the conterminous United States. Contact time, as described in Wolock and others (1989), is the baseflow residence time in the subsurface. The source data set was the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) 1-kilometer grid for the conterminous United States (D.M. Wolock, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 2008). The grid was created using a method described by Wolock and others (1997a; see equation 3). In the source data set, the contact time was estimated from 1-kilometer resolution elevation data (Verdin and Greenlee, 1996 ) and STATSGO soil characteristics (Wolock, 1997b). The NHDPlus Version 1.1 is an integrated suite of application-ready geospatial datasets that incorporates many of the best features of the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and the National Elevation Dataset (NED). The NHDPlus includes a stream network (based on the 1:100,00-scale NHD), improved networking, naming, and value-added attributes (VAAs). NHDPlus also includes elevation-derived catchments (drainage areas) produced using a drainage enforcement technique first widely used in New England, and thus referred to as "the New England Method." This technique involves "burning in" the 1:100,000-scale NHD and when available building "walls" using the National Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD). The resulting modified digital elevation model (HydroDEM) is used to produce hydrologic derivatives that agree with the NHD and WBD. Over the past two years, an interdisciplinary team from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and contractors, found that this method produces the best quality NHD catchments using an automated process (USEPA, 2007). The NHDPlus dataset is organized by 18 Production Units that cover the conterminous United States. The NHDPlus version 1.1 data are grouped by the U.S. Geologic Survey's Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). MRB1, covering the New England and Mid-Atlantic River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 1 and 2. MRB2, covering the South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 3 and 6. MRB3, covering the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 4, 5, 7 and 9. MRB4, covering the Missouri River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 10-lower and 10-upper. MRB5, covering the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 8, 11 and 12. MRB6, covering the Rio Grande, Colorado and Great Basin River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 13, 14, 15 and 16. MRB7, covering the Pacific Northwest River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Unit 17. MRB8, covering California River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Unit 18.

Data Series↗

Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: Normalized Atmospheric Deposition for 2002, Ammonium (NH4)

This data set represents the average normalized atmospheric (wet) deposition, in kilograms, of Ammonium (NH4) for the year 2002 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the conterminous United States. Estimates of NH4 deposition are based on National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) measurements (B. Larsen, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 2007). De-trending methods applied to the year 2002 are described in Alexander and others, 2001. NADP site selection met the following criteria: stations must have records from 1995 to 2002 and have a minimum of 30 observations. The NHDPlus Version 1.1 is an integrated suite of application-ready geospatial datasets that incorporates many of the best features of the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and the National Elevation Dataset (NED). The NHDPlus includes a stream network (based on the 1:100,00-scale NHD), improved networking, naming, and value-added attributes (VAAs). NHDPlus also includes elevation-derived catchments (drainage areas) produced using a drainage enforcement technique first widely used in New England, and thus referred to as "the New England Method." This technique involves "burning in" the 1:100,000-scale NHD and when available building "walls" using the National Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD). The resulting modified digital elevation model (HydroDEM) is used to produce hydrologic derivatives that agree with the NHD and WBD. Over the past two years, an interdisciplinary team from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and contractors, found that this method produces the best quality NHD catchments using an automated process (USEPA, 2007). The NHDPlus dataset is organized by 18 Production Units that cover the conterminous United States. The NHDPlus version 1.1 data are grouped by the U.S. Geologic Survey's Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). MRB1, covering the New England and Mid-Atlantic River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 1 and 2. MRB2, covering the South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 3 and 6. MRB3, covering the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 4, 5, 7 and 9. MRB4, covering the Missouri River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 10-lower and 10-upper. MRB5, covering the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 8, 11 and 12. MRB6, covering the Rio Grande, Colorado and Great Basin River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 13, 14, 15 and 16. MRB7, covering the Pacific Northwest River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Unit 17. MRB8, covering California River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Unit 18.

Data Series↗

Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: Normalized Atmospheric Deposition for 2002, Nitrate (NO3)

This data set represents the average normalized atmospheric (wet) deposition, in kilograms, of Nitrate (NO3) for the year 2002 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the conterminous United States. Estimates of NO3 deposition are based on National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) measurements (B. Larsen, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 2007). De-trending methods applied to the year 2002 are described in Alexander and others, 2001. NADP site selection met the following criteria: stations must have records from 1995 to 2002 and have a minimum of 30 observations. The NHDPlus Version 1.1 is an integrated suite of application-ready geospatial datasets that incorporates many of the best features of the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and the National Elevation Dataset (NED). The NHDPlus includes a stream network (based on the 1:100,00-scale NHD), improved networking, naming, and value-added attributes (VAAs). NHDPlus also includes elevation-derived catchments (drainage areas) produced using a drainage enforcement technique first widely used in New England, and thus referred to as "the New England Method." This technique involves "burning in" the 1:100,000-scale NHD and when available building "walls" using the National Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD). The resulting modified digital elevation model (HydroDEM) is used to produce hydrologic derivatives that agree with the NHD and WBD. Over the past two years, an interdisciplinary team from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and contractors, found that this method produces the best quality NHD catchments using an automated process (USEPA, 2007). The NHDPlus dataset is organized by 18 Production Units that cover the conterminous United States. The NHDPlus version 1.1 data are grouped by the U.S. Geologic Survey's Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). MRB1, covering the New England and Mid-Atlantic River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 1 and 2. MRB2, covering the South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 3 and 6. MRB3, covering the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 4, 5, 7 and 9. MRB4, covering the Missouri River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 10-lower and 10-upper. MRB5, covering the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 8, 11 and 12. MRB6, covering the Rio Grande, Colorado and Great Basin River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 13, 14, 15 and 16. MRB7, covering the Pacific Northwest River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Unit 17. MRB8, covering California River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Unit 18.

Data Series↗

Attributes for NHDPlus catchments (version 1.1) for the conterminous United States: normalized atmospheric deposition for 2002, Total Inorganic Nitrogen

This data set represents the average normalized atmospheric (wet) deposition, in kilograms, of Total Inorganic Nitrogen for the year 2002 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the conterminous United States. Estimates of Total Inorganic Nitrogen deposition are based on National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) measurements (B. Larsen, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 2007). De-trending methods applied to the year 2002 are described in Alexander and others, 2001. NADP site selection met the following criteria: stations must have records from 1995 to 2002 and have a minimum of 30 observations. The NHDPlus Version 1.1 is an integrated suite of application-ready geospatial datasets that incorporates many of the best features of the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and the National Elevation Dataset (NED). The NHDPlus includes a stream network (based on the 1:100,00-scale NHD), improved networking, naming, and value-added attributes (VAAs). NHDPlus also includes elevation-derived catchments (drainage areas) produced using a drainage enforcement technique first widely used in New England, and thus referred to as "the New England Method." This technique involves "burning in" the 1:100,000-scale NHD and when available building "walls" using the National Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD). The resulting modified digital elevation model (HydroDEM) is used to produce hydrologic derivatives that agree with the NHD and WBD. Over the past two years, an interdisciplinary team from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and contractors, found that this method produces the best quality NHD catchments using an automated process (USEPA, 2007). The NHDPlus dataset is organized by 18 Production Units that cover the conterminous United States. The NHDPlus version 1.1 data are grouped by the U.S. Geologic Survey's Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). MRB1, covering the New England and Mid-Atlantic River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 1 and 2. MRB2, covering the South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 3 and 6. MRB3, covering the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 4, 5, 7 and 9. MRB4, covering the Missouri River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 10-lower and 10-upper. MRB5, covering the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 8, 11 and 12. MRB6, covering the Rio Grande, Colorado and Great Basin River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 13, 14, 15 and 16. MRB7, covering the Pacific Northwest River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Unit 17. MRB8, covering California River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Unit 18.

Data Series↗

Determination of the components of stormflow using water chemistry and environmental isotopes, Mattole River basin, California

The chemical and isotopic composition of rainfall and stream water was monitored during a storm in the Mattole River basin of northwestern California. About 250 mm of rain fell during 6 days (∼80% within a 42 h period) in late January, 1972, following 24 days of little or no precipitation. River discharge near Petrolia increased from 22 m 3 s −1 to a maximum of 1300 m 3 s −1 while chloride and silica concentrations decreased only from 3.2 to 2.1 and 11.5 to 8.6 mgl −1 , respectively. Meanwhile, the isotopic composition of the river changed from δD = -42%, δ 18 O = -6.8% and 40 tritium units (T.U.) to extreme values at highest flow of δD = -35%, δ 18 O = -5.9% and 25 T.U. in response to volume-weighted rainfall averaging δD = -19.5%, δ 18 O = -3.1% and 18 T.U. Despite much rainfall of a composition quite different from that of the prestorm river water, “buffering” processes in the watershed greatly restricted changes in the chemical and isotopic content of the river during storm runoff. Because of the physical and hydrologic characteristics of the watershed, major contributions of groundwater to stormflow are very unlikely. The large increase in dissolved chemical load observed at maximum river discharge required that extensive interaction with, and presumably penetration of, soils occurred within a few hours time. Such a large increase in chemical load also required subsurface stormflow throughout a high proportion of the watershed. Chemical and isotopic stabilization of stormflow is believed to be due mainly to displacement of prestorm soil water, with some effects on river chemistry due to rapid rain-soil interactions. The isotopic and chemical composition of prestorm soil moisture cannot readily be predicted a priori because of possible variability in rainfall composition, evaporation, and exchange with atmospheric moisture, nor can it be assumed that baseflow has a predictable relation to the chemical or isotopic composition of water displaced from soils during storms. Therefore, it seems inappropriate to draw conclusions as to the relative proportions of groundwater and rainfall in runoff from a particular storm based only on the average compositions of rainfall, stormflow, and prestorm river water, as has been done in most previous isotope hydrograph studies. Given the great variation in hydrology, topography, soil characteristics, rainfall intensity and quantity, etc. from place to place, the relative amount of overland flow, subsurface flow from the unsaturated zone and of groundwater in stormflow can vary greatly in time and space.

California↗

Web based visualization of large climate data sets

We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hydrologic variables we simulated using a simple water-balance model. Our application summarizes very large, complex data sets at scales relevant to resource managers and citizens and makes climate-change projection information accessible to users of varying skill levels. Tens of terabytes of high-resolution climate and water-balance data are distilled to compact binary format summary files that are used in the application. To alleviate slow response times under high loads, we developed a map caching technique that reduces the time it takes to generate maps by several orders of magnitude. The reduced access time scales to >500 concurrent users. We provide code examples that demonstrate key aspects of data processing, data exporting/importing and the caching technique used in the NCCV.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

Variations in river flow to the Gulf of Mexico: implications for paleoenvironmental studies of Gulf of Mexico marine sediments

Analyses of selected gaging station records from the Mississippi River and Rio Grande show that variations in discharge of these rivers into the Gulf of Mexico reflect major flood events and regional-scale drought intervals known from the historical record. Variations in Rio Grande discharge show good correlation with El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and short-term variability. Mississippi River discharge does not show correlation with ENSO events or short-term variability. However, Mississippi River discharge does appear to respond to long-term changes in ENSO variability and mean climate state. The link between historical hydrologic extremes and discharge of the Rio Grande and Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico indicates that shelf and slope sediments of the Gulf of Mexico contain a long-term record of flood and drought intervals of the Southwestern and Central United States.

Bulletin↗

Ground-water data collected in the Missouri River basin units in Kansas during 1948

Ground-water studies in the Missouri River Basin were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey during the fall of 1945 as a part of the program for development of the resources of the basin by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and other Federal agencies. The studies of the ground-water resources in the part of Kansas that lies within the basin have been coordinated with the cooperative program of ground-water studies already being carried on in Kansas by the Federal Geological Survey and the Kansas State Geological Survey with the cooperation of the Division of Sanitation of the Kansas State Board of health and the Division of Water Resources of the Kansas State Board of Agriculture. Areas in which ground-water data have been collected under the Missouri Basin program include the Almena Unit in Norton and Phillips Counties; the Bostwick Unit in Jewell, Republic, and Cloud Counties; the Cedar Bluff Unit in Ellis and Trego Counties; the Glen Elder Unit in Mitchell County; the Kanopolis Unit in McPherson and Saline Counties; the Kirwin Unit in Phillips, Smith, and Osborne Counties; the St. Francis Unit in Cheyenne County; the Webster Unit in Osborne County; and the Wilson Unit in Lincoln County. Most of the ground-water data presented in this report were collected during 1948. Most of the data collected in these areas prior to the end of 1947 were presented in a report mimeographed in September 1948. This report and the previous report are the first two of a series of annual reports on ground-water studies in the Missouri Basin units in Kansas. These reports are a means of more promptly releasing for administrative use the data collected each year. Data for a given area that are included in the annual reports will be assembled later in a report on the geology and hydrology of that area.

Kansas↗

Design and testing of a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system for predicting concentrations of agrichemicals in groundwater across the United States

Efforts to assess the likelihood of groundwater contamination from surface-derived compounds have spanned more than three decades. Relatively few of these assessments, however, have involved the use of process-based simulations of contaminant transport and fate in the subsurface, or compared the predictions from such models with measured data—especially over regional to national scales. To address this need, a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system was constructed to use transport-and-fate simulations to predict the concentration of any surface-derived compound at a specified depth in the vadose zone anywhere in the conterminous United States. The system was then used to simulate the concentrations of selected agrichemicals in the vadose zone beneath agricultural areas in multiple locations across the conterminous United States. The simulated concentrations were compared with measured concentrations of the compounds detected in shallow groundwater (that is, groundwater drawn from within a depth of 6.3 ± 0.5 meters [mean ± 95 percent confidence interval] below the water table) in more than 1,400 locations across the United States. The results from these comparisons were used to select the simulation approaches that led to the closest agreement between the simulated and the measured concentrations. The P-GWAVA system uses computer simulations that account for a broader range of the hydrologic, physical, biological and chemical phenomena known to control the transport and fate of solutes in the subsurface than has been accounted for by any other vulnerability assessment over regional to national scales. Such phenomena include preferential transport and the influences of temperature, soil properties, and depth on the partitioning, transport, and transformation of pesticides in the subsurface. Published methods and detailed soil property data are used to estimate a wide range of model input parameters for each site, including surface albedo, surface crust permeability, soil water content, Brooks-Corey parameters, saturated hydraulic conductivity, macroporosity and sizes of microbial populations, as well as solute partition coefficients, reaction rates, and meso-micropore diffusion rates. To ensure geographic consistency among the predictions, the only site-specific input data that are used are those that are available for all of the 48 conterminous states.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Mapping irrigated lands at 250-m scale by merging MODIS data and National Agricultural Statistics

Accurate geospatial information on the extent of irrigated land improves our understanding of agricultural water use, local land surface processes, conservation or depletion of water resources, and components of the hydrologic budget. We have developed a method in a geospatial modeling framework that assimilates irrigation statistics with remotely sensed parameters describing vegetation growth conditions in areas with agricultural land cover to spatially identify irrigated lands at 250-m cell size across the conterminous United States for 2002. The geospatial model result, known as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Irrigated Agriculture Dataset (MIrAD-US), identified irrigated lands with reasonable accuracy in California and semiarid Great Plains states with overall accuracies of 92% and 75% and kappa statistics of 0.75 and 0.51, respectively. A quantitative accuracy assessment of MIrAD-US for the eastern region has not yet been conducted, and qualitative assessment shows that model improvements are needed for the humid eastern regions where the distinction in annual peak NDVI between irrigated and non-irrigated crops is minimal and county sizes are relatively small. This modeling approach enables consistent mapping of irrigated lands based upon USDA irrigation statistics and should lead to better understanding of spatial trends in irrigated lands across the conterminous United States. An improved version of the model with revised datasets is planned and will employ 2007 USDA irrigation statistics.

Remote Sensing↗

Summary of West Virginia Water-Resource Data through September 2008

The West Virginia Water Science Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with State and Federal agencies, obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the water resources of West Virginia each water year. A water year is the 12-month period beginning October 1 and ending September 30. These data, accumulated during many years, constitute a valuable database for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the State. These data are maintained in the National Water Information System (NWIS) and are available through its World-Wide Web interface, NWISWeb, at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/wv/nwis. Data can be retrieved in a variety of common formats, and a tutorial is available at http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/tutorial. Location information for all continuous-record gaging stations operated in West Virginia through September 2008 is provided in this report, as well as statistical summaries of the available daily records. This report can serve as an index to the daily records data available on the World-Wide Web. Hydrologic data for nearly all of the gaging stations identified in this report are also available in the annual publication series titled Water-Resources Data - West Virginia. This series of annual reports for West Virginia began with the 1961 water year with a report that contained only data relating to quantities of surface water. For the 1964 water year, a similar report was introduced that contained only data relating to water quality. Beginning with the 1975 water year, the report format was changed to include data on quantities of surface water, quality of surface water and groundwater, and groundwater levels. Prior to the introduction of the Water-Resources Data - West Virginia series and for several water years concurrent with it, water-resources data for West Virginia were published in U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Papers. Data on stream discharge and stage and on lake or reservoir contents and stage through September 1960 were published annually under the title Surface-Water Supply of the United States, Parts 6A and 6B. For the 1961 through 1970 water years, the data were published in two 5-year reports. Data on chemical quality, temperature, and suspended sediment for the 1941 through 1970 water years were published annually under the title Quality of Surface Water of the United States, and water levels for the 1935 through 1974 water years were published under the title Ground-Water Levels in the United States. Many of the above mentioned Water-Supply Papers are available at the USGS Publications Warehouse (http://pubs.er.usgs.gov), and most of the others may be found in the collections of large libraries or may be purchased from the U.S. Geological Survey, Books and Open-File Reports, Federal Center, Box 25425, Denver, Colorado 80225. Annual reports on hydrologic data are published by the Geological Survey for all states, and each has an identification number consisting of the two-letter state abbreviation, the last two digits of the water year, and the volume number. For example, the 2005 water year report for West Virginia is identified as U.S. Geological Survey Water-Data Report WV-05-01. Water-Data Reports for West Virginia for 2001-2005 are available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/wdr/#WV. Water-Data Reports for water years prior to 2006 are for sale in paper copy or microfiche by the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Since the 2006 water year, the report is published online only and is available at http://wdr.water.usgs.gov/. When substantial errors in published records are discovered, the records are revised. Such revisions are routine and are made to records regardless of the age of the original records. Revisions have been made for many stations for which data are published in this report. The USGS National Water Information System always contains the most recent data revisions. For critical a

Open-File Report↗

Detectability of the effects of a hypothetical temperature increase on the Thornthwaite moisture index

Climatic changes that result from increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide may affect the availability of water for vegetation, groundwater recharge, runoff, and human consumption. Most studies of the effects of climatic change on water resources focus on changes in mean characteristics of hydrologic variables and do not consider the effects of these changes amid natural climatic variability. In this study, the Thornthwaite moisture index, an index of the supply of water in an area (precipitation) relative to the climatic demand for water (potential evapotranspiration), was used to examine the effects of a hypothetical increase in air temperature on moisture conditions in the United States. The effects of a gradual increase in air temperature at the rate of 4°C per 100 years, with no accompanying change in precipitation, was used to induce a change in Thornthwaite moisture index values for the United States in order to: (i) determine the relation between natural variability in climate and the time needed for significant trends in the moisture index to occur in response to hypothetical warming; (ii) identify the characteristics of areas (e.g. wet/cool, hot/dry etc.) that are most likely to be the first to experience significant changes in the moisture index given the hypothetical temperature increase. The increased temperature resulted in increased potential evapotranspiration and a decrease in the moisture index across the United States. Decreases in the moisture index were greatest in cool/wet regions and least in hot/dry regions. The time required to detect significant trends in the moisture index was a function of both the magnitude of change in the moisture index and the natural year-to-year variability of the moisture index. In general, when the ratio of the magnitude of change in the moisture index to the magnitude of variability was large, the time required to detect significant trends was short. This ratio was largest in cool/wet regions resulting in the shortest detection times.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Preliminary hydrogeologic assessment of boreholes UE-25c #1, UE-25c #2, and UE-25c #3, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

Boreholes UE-25c #1, UE-25c #2, and UE-25c #3 (collectively called the C-holes) each were drilled to a depth of 914.4 meters at Yucca Mountain, on the Nevada Test Site, in 1983 and 1984 for the purpose of conducting aquifer and tracer tests. Each of the boreholes penetrated the Paintbrush Tuff and the tuffs and lavas of Calico Hills and bottomed in the Crater Flat Tuff. The geologic units penetrated consist of devitrified to vitrophyric, nonwelded to densely welded, ash-flow tuff, tuff breccia, ash-fall tuff, and bedded tuff. Below the water table, which is at an average depth of 401.6 meters below land surface, the rocks are argillic and zeolitic. The geologic units at the C-hole complex strike N. 2° W. and dip 15° to 21° NE. They are cut by several faults, including the Paintbrush Canyon Fault, a prominent normal fault oriented S. 9° W., 52.2° NW. The rocks at the C-hole complex are fractured extensively, with most fractures oriented approximately perpendicular to the direction of regional least horizontal principal stress. In the Crater Flat Tuff and the tuffs and lavas of Calico Hills, fractures strike predominantly between S. 20° E. and S. 20° W. and secondarily between S. 20° E. and S. 60° E. In the Topopah Spring Member of the Paintbrush Tuff, however, southeasterly striking fractures predominate. Most fractures are steeply dipping, although shallowly dipping fractures occur in nonwelded and reworked tuff intervals of the Crater Flat Tuff. Mineral-filled fractures are common in the tuff breccia zone of the Tram Member of the Crater Flat Tuff, and, also, in the welded tuff zone of the Bullfrog Member of the Crater Flat Tuff. The fracture density of geologic units in the C-holes was estimated to range from 1.3 to 7.6 fractures per cubic meter. Most of these estimates appear to be the correct order of magnitude when compared to transect measurements and core data from other boreholes 1.3 orders of magnitude too low. Geophysical data and laboratory analyses were used to determine matrix hydrologic properties of the tuffs and lavas of Calico Hills and the Crater Flat Tuff in the C-holes. The porosity ranged from 12 to 43 percent and, on the average, was larger in nonwelded to partially welded, ash-flow tuff, ashfall tuff, and reworked tuff than in moderately to densely welded ash-flow tuff. The pore-scale horizontal permeability of nine samples ranged from 5.7x10 -3 to 2.9 millidarcies, and the pore-scale vertical permeability of these samples ranged from 3.7x10 -3 to 1.5 millidarcies. Ratios of pore-scale horizontal to vertical permeability generally ranged from 0.7 to 2. Although the number of samples was small, values of pore-scale permeability determined were consistent with samples from other boreholes at Yucca Mountain. The specific storage of nonwelded to partially welded ash-flow tuff, ash-fall tuff, and reworked tuff was estimated from porosity and elasticity to be 2x10 -6 per meter, twice the specific storage of moderately to densely welded ash-flow tuff and tuff breccia. The storativity of geologic units, based on their average thickness (corrected for bedding dip) and specific storage, was estimated to range from 1x10 -5 to 2x10 -4 .

Nevada↗

Preliminary analysis of regional-precipitation periodicity

Precipitation variability plays a major role in nearly every aspect of the hydrologic cycle. Precipitation is not a random event, but it occurs after a sequence of prerequi-sites has been fulfilled. Recent investigations have shown that activity of the sun can affect atmospheric vorticity, an important factor in precipitation formation. Solar activity is known to be periodic; therefore, through a complex series of physical processes, precipitation variance is solar forced to a certain degree. A preliminary analysis of precipitation periodicity was made for eight regions scattered across the central United States. Each region contained 5 to 10 stations with long-term precipitation records that were averaged to obtain yearly regional-precipitation values. Graphic analysis shows 11-year and 22-year cycles that are nearly in phase with the solar cycles. An example of the effect of cyclic precipitation is presented for the Powder River basin in Wyoming and Montana. A cycle of 22 years exhibits fluctuations of approximately 22 to 27 percent for precipitation and 38 to 50 percent for runoff. A more detailed study that investigates solar-forced precipitation cycles and their relationship to hydrologic processes is needed.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Implications of the minor element content of some major streams of the world

Of 15 or more minor elements in the world's principal river waters only aluminum, iron, manganese, barium and strontium range much over 100 μg l "> 100 μgl . (parts per billion). Most minor elements range at or below 100 μg 1 "> 100 μg1 . and have median (or middle) values of 10 micrograms per liter or less. Significant areal differences in minor element content are found in the river waters. For example, Atlantic Coastal river waters in the aggregate are slightly more enriched in concentrations of silver, chromium, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, strontium and titanium, and slightly deficient in barium and lithium when compared with median values for North America. Median values of ratios Ba Sr "> BaSr , Ni Cr "> NiCr and Ni Cu "> NiCu are reasonably consistent (within a factor of two) in principal drainage from North America. Noteworthy are consistent median ratios of Ni Cu "> NiCu for large rivers of United States, but the ratio tends to be slightly greater in global northern latitudes than in southern latitudes. Median values for aluminum, barium, copper, lead, molybdenum and silver in North American runoff are of the same order as published world averages for ocean water. Hydrologic and geochemical aspects of continental runoff are strongly implied in observations of minor element content of large rivers. Evidence to date is that median values of Ba Sr ratios "> BaSr ratios are relatively uniform in global river waters. There is real danger in oversimplifying chemical systems in broad assessments of lower reaches of large drainage basins because individual hydrologic and chemical events upstream are largely obscured.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗