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At least 1,513 records · Page 84Linked to original sources
USGS2002

Structure and earthquake offsets on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood, California paleoseismic site

Thirty-eight trenches and natural exposures across the San Andreas fault zone, four km northwest of Wrightwood, California, reveal the structure and stratigraphy of this paleoseismic site. A 25-m-thick stratigraphic section of late Holocene peat, debris flows, and fluvial sediments have accumulated syntectonically and are deformed in a complicated flower, or flake, structure within the fault zone. Whereas slip is everywhere parallel to the trend of the San Andreas fault, layering within the fan-shaped section guides the surface faulting, and transtensive portions of the structure are connected to transpressive portions by bedding-parallel detachment faults. The structure has grown through time, widely distributing the evidence for individual earthquakes. The broad zone of deformation and rapid sedimentation permit the characterization of an unusually large number of prehistoric earthquakes. The presence of at least four geomorphically similar sites within 10 km along the fault zone suggests that this kind of site is common and other sites should be exploited.

California↗
USGS2002

Primary surface rupture associated with the Mw 7.1 16 October 1999 Hector Mine earthquake, San Bernardino County, California

The Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake occurred within the Mojave Desert portion of the eastern California shear zone and was accompanied by 48 km of dextral surface rupture. Complex northward rupture began on two branches of the Lavic Lake fault in the northern Bullion Mountains and also propagated southward onto the Bullion fault. Lesser amounts of rupture occurred across two right steps to the south. Surface rupture was mapped using postearthquake, 1:10,000-scale aerial photography. Field mapping provided additional detail and more than 400 fault-rupture observations; of these, approximately 300 measurements were used to characterize the slip distribution. En echelon surface rupture predominated in areas of thick alluvium, whereas in the bedrock areas, rupture was more continuous and focused within a narrower zone. Measured dextral offsets were relatively symmetrical about the epicentral region, with a maximum displacement of 5.25 ?? 0.85 m. Vertical slip was a secondary component and was variable, with minor west-side-down displacements predominat.ing in the Bullion Mountains. Field and aerial photographic evidence indicates that most of the faults that ruptured in 1999 had had prior late-Quaternary displacement, although only limited sections of the rupture show evidence for prior Holocene displacement.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2002

The earthquake potential of the New Madrid seismic zone

The fault system responsible for New Madrid seismicity has generated temporally clustered very large earthquakes in A.D. 900 ± 100 years and A.D. 1450 ± 150 years as well as in 1811–1812. Given the uncertainties in dating liquefaction features, the time between the past three New Madrid events may be as short as 200 years and as long as 800 years, with an average of 500 years. This advance in understanding the Late Holocene history of the New Madrid seismic zone and thus, the contemporary tectonic behavior of the associated fault system was made through studies of hundreds of earthquake-induced liquefaction features at more than 250 sites across the New Madrid region. We have found evidence that prehistoric sand blows, like those that formed during the 1811–1812 earthquakes, are probably compound structures resulting from multiple earthquakes closely clustered in time or earthquake sequences. From the spatial distribution and size of sand blows and their sedimentary units, we infer the source zones and estimate the magnitudes of earthquakes within each sequence and thereby characterize the detailed behavior of the fault system. It appears that fault rupture was complex and that the central branch of the seismic zone produced very large earthquakes during the A.D. 900 and A.D. 1450 events as well as in 1811–1812. On the basis of a minimum recurrence rate of 200 years, we are now entering the period during which the next 1811–1812-type event could occur.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee↗
USGS2002

Subsurface geometry and evolution of the Seattle fault zone and the Seattle Basin, Washington

The Seattle fault, a large, seismically active, east-west-striking fault zone under Seattle, is the best-studied fault within the tectonically active Puget Lowland in western Washington, yet its subsurface geometry and evolution are not well constrained. We combine several analysis and modeling approaches to study the fault geometry and evolution, including depth-converted, deep-seismic-reflection images, P-wave-velocity field, gravity data, elastic modeling of shoreline uplift from a late Holocene earthquake, and kinematic fault restoration. We propose that the Seattle thrust or reverse fault is accompanied by a shallow, antithetic reverse fault that emerges south of the main fault. The wedge enclosed by the two faults is subject to an enhanced uplift, as indicated by the boxcar shape of the shoreline uplift from the last major earthquake on the fault zone. The Seattle Basin is interpreted as a flexural basin at the footwall of the Seattle fault zone. Basin stratigraphy and the regional tectonic history lead us to suggest that the Seattle fault zone initiated as a reverse fault during the middle Miocene, concurrently with changes in the regional stress field, to absorb some of the north-south shortening of the Cascadia forearc. Kingston Arch, 30 km north of the Seattle fault zone, is interpreted as a more recent disruption arising within the basin, probably due to the development of a blind reverse fault.

Washington↗
USGS2004

Interpretation of the Seattle Uplift, Washington, as a passive-roof duplex

We interpret seismic lines and a wide variety of other geological and geophysical data to suggest that the Seattle uplift is a passive-roof duplex. A passive-roof duplex is bounded top and bottom by thrust faults with opposite senses of vergence that form a triangle zone at the leading edge of the advancing thrust sheet. In passive-roof duplexes the roof thrust slips only when the floor thrust ruptures. The Seattle fault is a south-dipping reverse fault forming the leading edge of the Seattle uplift, a 40-km-wide fold-and-thrust belt. The recently discovered, north-dipping Tacoma reverse fault is interpreted as a back thrust on the trailing edge of the belt, making the belt doubly vergent. Floor thrusts in the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones, imaged as discontinuous reflections, are interpreted as blind faults that flatten updip into bedding plane thrusts. Shallow monoclines in both the Seattle and Tacoma basins are interpreted to overlie the leading edges of thrust-bounded wedge tips advancing into the basins. Across the Seattle uplift, seismic lines image several shallow, short-wavelength folds exhibiting Quaternary or late Quaternary growth. From reflector truncation, several north-dipping thrust faults (splay thrusts) are inferred to core these shallow folds and to splay upward from a shallow roof thrust. Some of these shallow splay thrusts ruptured to the surface in the late Holocene. Ages from offset soils in trenches across the fault scarps and from abruptly raised shorelines indicate that the splay, roof, and floor thrusts of the Seattle and Tacoma faults ruptured about 1100 years ago.

Washington↗
USGS2007

Seismic amplification within the Seattle Basin, Washington State: Insights from SHIPS seismic tomography experiments

Recent observations indicate that the Seattle sedimentary basin, underlying Seattle and other urban centers in the Puget Lowland, Washington, amplifies long-period (1-5 sec) weak ground motions by factors of 10 or more. We computed east-trending P- and S-wave velocity models across the Seattle basin from Seismic Hazard Investigations of Puget Sound (SHIPS) experiments to better characterize the seismic hazard the basin poses. The 3D tomographic models, which resolve features to a depth of 10 km, for the first time define the P- and S-wave velocity structure of the eastern end of the basin. The basin, which contains sedimentary rocks of Eocene to Holocene, is broadly symmetric in east-west section and reaches a maximum thickness of 6 km along our profile beneath north Seattle. A comparison of our velocity model with coincident amplification curves for weak ground motions produced by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake suggests that the distribution of Quaternary deposits and reduced velocity gradients in the upper part of the basement east of Seattle have significance in forecasting variations in seismic-wave amplification across the basin. Specifically, eastward increases in the amplification of 0.2- to 5-Hz energy correlate with locally thicker unconsolidated deposits and a change from Crescent Formation basement to pre-Tertiary Cascadia basement. These models define the extent of the Seattle basin, the Seattle fault, and the geometry of the basement contact, giving insight into the tectonic evolution of the Seattle basin and its influence on ground shaking.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2008

High-resolution seismic images and seismic velocities of the San Andreas fault zone at Burro Flats, Southern California

To better understand the structure of the San Andreas fault (SAF) at Burro Flats in southern California, we acquired a three-dimensional combined set of seismic reflection and refraction profiles centered on the main active trace at Burro Flats. In this article, we discuss the variation in shallow-depth velocities along each seismic profile, with special emphasis on the 1500 m/sec P -wave velocity contour, which can be an indicator of shallow-depth water-saturated unconsolidated sediments. Along the four seismic profiles, minimum depths of the groundwater table, as inferred from 1500 m/sec velocity contour, range from 10 to about 20 m. The largest variations in depth to the top of the groundwater table occur in areas near mapped faults, suggesting that the groundwater flow in Burro Flats is strongly affected by the locations of fault traces. We also used the seismic data to develop seismic reflection images that show multiple strands of the SAF in the upper 60 m. Reflectors above the 10 m depth probably correspond to Holocene alluvial deposits; reflectors below the 15 m depth probably arise from velocity or density variations within the Precambrian gneiss complex, likely due to weathering. Apparent vertical offsets of reflectors are observed along profiles (lines 1 and 2) that are normal to the SAF, indicating minor apparent vertical offsets on the SAF at shallow depths. Along line 2, the apparently vertically offset reflectors correlate with zones of relatively low P -wave velocity. Along the central part of lines 1 and 2, the faults form a flower structure, which is typical of strike-slip faults such as the SAF.

California↗
USGS2009

Scenario liquefaction hazard maps of Santa Clara Valley, Northern California

Maps showing the probability of surface manifestations of liquefaction in the northern Santa Clara Valley were prepared with liquefaction probability curves. These curves were based on complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) for surficial geologic units in the study area. LPI values were computed with extensive cone penetration test soundings. Maps were developed for three earthquake scenarios, an M 7.8 event on the San Andreas fault comparable to the 1906 event, an M 6.7 event on the Hayward fault comparable to the 1868 event, and an M 6.9 event on the Calaveras fault. Ground motions were estimated with the Boore and Atkinson (2008) attenuation relation. Liquefaction is predicted for all three events in young Holocene levee deposits along the major creeks. Liquefaction probabilities are highest for the M 7.8 earthquake, ranging from 0.33 to 0.37 if a 1.5 m deep water table is assumed, and from 0.10 to 0.14, if a 5 m deep water table is assumed. Liquefaction probabilities of the other surficial geologic units are less than 0.05. Probabilities for the scenario earthquakes are generally consistent with observations during historical earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2009

Major earthquakes recorded by Speleothems in Midwestern U.S. caves

Historic earthquakes generated by the New Madrid seismic zone represent some of the largest recorded in the United States, yet prehistoric events are recognized only through deformation in late-Wisconsin to Holocene-age, near surface sediments (liquefaction, monoclinal folding, and changes in river meanders). In this article, we show that speleothems in caves of southwestern Illinois and southeastern Missouri may constitute a previously unrecognized recorder of large earthquakes in the U.S. midcontinent region. The timing of the initiation and regrowth of stalagmites in southwestern Illinois and southeastern Missouri caves is consistent with the historic and prehistoric record of several known seismic events in the U.S. midcontinent region. We conclude that dating the initiation of original stalagmite growth and later postearthquake rejuvenation constitutes a new paleoseismic method that has the potential for being applied to any region around the world in the vicinity of major seismic zones where caves exist. Use of this technique could expand the geographical distribution of paleoseimic data, document prehistoric earthquakes, and help improve interpretations of paleoearthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Neotectonics and paleoseismology of the Limón and pedro miguel faults in Panamá: earthquake hazard to the Panamá canal

We present new geologic, tectonic geomorphic, and geochronologic data on the slip rate, timing, and size of past surface ruptures for the right-lateral Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults in central Panam??. These faults are part of a system of conjugate faults that accommodate the internal deformation of Panam?? resulting from the ongoing collision of Central and South America. There have been at least three surface ruptures on the Lim??n fault in the past 950-1400 years, with the most recent during the past 365 years. Displacement in this young event is at least 1.2 m (based on trenching) and may be 1.6-2 m (based on small channel offsets). Awell-preserved 4.2 m offset suggests that the penultimate event also sustained significant displacement. The Holocene slip rate has averaged about 6 mm=yr, based on a 30-m offset terrace riser incised into a 5-ka abandoned channel. The Pedro Miguel fault has sustained three surface ruptures in the past 1600 years, the most recent being the 2 May 1621 earthquake that partially destroyed Panam?? Viejo. At least 2.1 m of slip occurred in this event near the Canal, with geomorphic offsets suggesting 2.5-3 m. The historic Camino de Cruces is offset 2.8 m, indicating multimeter displacement over at least 20 km of fault length. Channel offsets of 100-400 m, together with a climate-induced incision model, suggest a Late Quaternary slip rate of about 5 mm=yr, which is consistent with the paleoseismic results. Comparison of the timing of surface ruptures between the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults suggests that large earthquakes may rupture both faults with 2-3 m of displacement for over 40 km, such as is likely in earthquakes in the M 7 range. Altogether, our observations indicate that the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults represent a significant seismic hazard to central Panam?? and, specifically, to the Canal and Panam?? City.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2012

Timing of large earthquakes during the past 500 years along the Santa Cruz Mountains segment of the San Andreas fault at Mill Canyon, near Watsonville, California

A paleoseismic investigation across the Santa Cruz Mountains section of the San Andreas fault at Mill Canyon indicates that four surface‐rupturing earthquakes have occurred there during the past ~500 years. At this site, right‐lateral fault slip has moved a low shutter ridge across the mouth of the canyon, ponding latest Holocene sediments. These alluvial deposits are deformed along a narrow zone of faulting. There is excellent evidence for a 1906 (M 7.8) and three earlier earthquakes consisting of well‐developed fissures, scarps, and colluvial wedges. Deformation resulting from the earlier earthquakes is comparable to that from 1906, suggesting they also were large‐magnitude events. The earthquake prior to 1906 occurred either about A.D. 1750 (1711–1770) or A.D. 1855 (1789–1904), depending on assumptions incorporated into two alternative OxCal models. If the later age range is correct, then the earthquake may have been a historical early‐to‐mid‐nineteenth‐century earthquake, possibly the A.D. 1838 earthquake. Both models are viable, and there is no way to select one over the other with the available data. Two earlier earthquakes occurred about A.D. 1690 (1660–1720) and A.D. 1522 (1454–1605). Using OxCal, recalculation of the age of the reported penultimate earthquake reported from the Grizzly Flat site, located about 10 km northwest of Mill Canyon, indicates it occurred about A.D. 1105–1545, earlier than any of the past three earthquakes, and possibly correlates to the fourth earthquake at Mill Canyon.

California↗
USGS2013

Late quaternary slip-rate variations along the Warm Springs Valley fault system, northern Walker Lane, California-Nevada border

The extent to which faults exhibit temporally varying slip rates has important consequences for models of fault mechanics and probabilistic seismic hazard. Here, we explore the temporal behavior of the dextral‐slip Warm Springs Valley fault system, which is part of a network of closely spaced (10–20 km) faults in the northern Walker Lane (California–Nevada border). We develop a late Quaternary slip record for the fault using Quaternary mapping and high‐resolution topographic data from airborne Light Distance and Ranging (LiDAR). The faulted Fort Sage alluvial fan (40.06° N, 119.99° W) is dextrally displaced 98+42/-43 m, and we estimate the age of the alluvial fan to be 41.4+10.0/-4.8 to 55.7±9.2 ka, based on a terrestrial cosmogenic 10 Be depth profile and 36 Cl analyses on basalt boulders, respectively. The displacement and age constraints for the fan yield a slip rate of 1.8 +0.8/-0.8 mm/yr to 2.4 +1.2/-1.1 mm/yr (2σ) along the northern Warm Springs Valley fault system for the past 41.4–55.7 ka. In contrast to this longer‐term slip rate, shorelines associated with the Sehoo highstand of Lake Lahontan (~15.8 ka) adjacent to the Fort Sage fan are dextrally faulted at most 3 m, which limits a maximum post‐15.8 ka slip rate to 0.2 mm/yr. These relations indicate that the post‐Lahontan slip rate on the fault is only about one‐tenth the longer‐term (41–56 ka) average slip rate. This apparent slip‐rate variation may be related to co‐dependent interaction with the nearby Honey Lake fault system, which shows evidence of an accelerated period of mid‐Holocene earthquakes.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2013

The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential

Once assumed locked, we show that the northern third of the Greenville fault (GF) creeps at 2 mm/yr, based on 47 yr of trilateration net data. This northern GF creep rate equals its 11-ka slip rate, suggesting a low strain accumulation rate. In 1980, the GF, easternmost strand of the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, produced a M w 5.8 earthquake with a 6-km surface rupture and dextral slip growing to ≥2 cm on cracks over a few weeks. Trilateration shows a 10-cm post-1980 transient slip ending in 1984. Analysis of 2000-2012 crustal velocities on continuous global positioning system stations, allows creep rates of ~2 mm/yr on the northern GF, 0-1 mm/yr on the central GF, and ~0 mm/yr on its southern third. Modeled depth ranges of creep along the GF allow 5-25% aseismic release. Greater locking in the southern two thirds of the GF is consistent with paleoseismic evidence there for large late Holocene ruptures. Because the GF lacks large (>1 km) discontinuities likely to arrest higher (~1 m) slip ruptures, we expect full-length (54-km) ruptures to occur that include the northern creeping zone. We estimate sufficient strain accumulation on the entire GF to produce M w 6.9 earthquakes with a mean recurrence of ~575 yr. While the creeping 16-km northern part has the potential to produce a M w 6.2 event in 240 yr, it may rupture in both moderate (1980) and large events. These two-dimensional-model estimates of creep rate along the southern GF need verification with small aperture surveys.

California↗
USGS2014

Structure and seismic hazard of the Ventura Avenue anticline and Ventura fault, California: Prospect for large, multisegment ruptures in the Western Transverse Ranges

The Ventura Avenue anticline is one of the fastest uplifting structures in southern California, rising at ∼5 mm/yr. We use well data and seismic reflection profiles to show that the anticline is underlain by the Ventura fault, which extends to seismogenic depth. Fault offset increases with depth, implying that the Ventura Avenue anticline is a fault‐propagation fold. A decrease in the uplift rate since ∼30±10 ka is consistent with the Ventura fault breaking through to the surface at that time and implies that the fault has a recent dip‐slip rate of ∼4.4–6.9 mm/yr. To the west, the Ventura fault and fold trend continues offshore as the Pitas Point fault and its associated hanging wall anticline. The Ventura–Pitas Point fault appears to flatten at about 7.5 km depth to a detachment, called the Sisar decollement, then step down on a blind thrust fault to the north. Other regional faults, including the San Cayetano and Red Mountain faults, link with this system at depth. We suggest that below 7.5 km, these faults may form a nearly continuous surface, posing the threat of large, multisegment earthquakes. Holocene marine terraces on the Ventura Avenue anticline suggest that it grows in discrete events with 5–10 m of uplift, with the latest event having occurred ∼800 years ago ( Rockwell, 2011 ). Uplift this large would require large earthquakes ( M w 7.7–8.1) involving the entire Ventura/Pitas Point system and possibly more structures along strike, such as the San Cayetano fault. Because of the local geography and geology, such events would be associated with significant ground shaking amplification and regional tsunamis.

California↗
USGS2015

Earthquake geology of the Bulnay Fault (Mongolia)

The Bulnay earthquake of July 23, 1905 (M w 8.3-8.5), in north-central Mongolia, is one of the world's largest recorded intracontinental earthquakes and one of four great earthquakes that occurred in the region during the 20th century. The 375-km-long surface rupture of the left-lateral, strike-slip, N095°E trending Bulnay Fault associated with this earthquake is remarkable for its pronounced expression across the landscape and for the size of features produced by previous earthquakes. Our field observations suggest that in many areas the width and geometry of the rupture zone is the result of repeated earthquakes; however, in those areas where it is possible to determine that the geomorphic features are the result of the 1905 surface rupture alone, the size of the features produced by this single earthquake are singular in comparison to most other historical strike-slip surface ruptures worldwide. Along the 80 km stretch, between 97.18°E and 98.33°E, the fault zone is characterized by several meters width and the mean left-lateral 1905 offset is 8.9 ± 0.6 m with two measured cumulative offsets that are twice the 1905 slip. These observations suggest that the displacement produced during the penultimate event was similar to the 1905 slip. Morphotectonic analyses carried out at three sites along the eastern part of the Bulnay fault, allow us to estimate a mean horizontal slip rate of 3.1 ± 1.7 mm/yr over the Late Pleistocene-Holocene period. In parallel, paleoseismological investigations show evidence for two earthquakes prior to the 1905 event with recurrence intervals of ~2700-4000 years.

Bulnay Fault↗
USGS2016

Continuity of the Reelfoot fault across the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults of the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Previous investigators have argued that the northwest-striking Reelfoot fault of northwest Tennessee and southeastern Missouri is segmented. One segment boundary is at the intersection of the northeast-striking Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely strike-slip faults with the Reelfoot fault. We use seismic reflection and geologic mapping to locate and determine the history of the Reelfoot South fault across this boundary zone. One reflection profile revealed a southwest-dipping (81°) Reelfoot South reverse fault that displaces the top of the Paleozoic 65 m, Cretaceous 40 m, Paleocene 31 m, Eocene Wilcox Group 20 m, and Eocene Memphis Sand 16 m. A second reflection profile reveals a north-dipping (84°) reverse fault 4.3 km south of the Reelfoot South fault, which defines the southwest margin of the Tiptonville dome. A geologic profile of the base of the ∼3:1 Ma Upland complex (Mississippi River terrace alluvium) within theMississippi River bluffs reveals ∼6 m of displacement across the Reelfoot South fault. Similarly, Quaternary stream terrace distribution suggests ∼6 m of Reelfoot South hanging-wall (Tiptonville dome) uplift that is probably Holocene. Fault strike trends show the Reelfoot fault and its hanging-wall Tiptonville dome are not laterally offset across the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults. The Reelfoot South fault northwest and southeast of the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults has very similar vertical displacement on common stratigraphic marker horizons in the upper 900 m. These data indicate the Reelfoot fault/Tiptonville dome has acted as one continuous fault zone across the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults since Late Cretaceous.

Missouri, Tennessee↗
USGS2018

Combining conflicting Bayesian models to develop paleoseismic records—An example from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah

Bayesian statistical analyses of paleoseismic data result in the probabilistic determination of earthquake times using geochronological data evaluated in the context of a stratigraphic model. However, a fundamental problem in paleoseismology is how to use the Bayesian approach to model sparse and/or conflicting geochronological datasets, such as those derived from sites exhibiting episodic sedimentary and pedogenic processes in moderate‐ to high‐energy environments (e.g., a normal‐faulted alluvial fan). Using paleoseismic data for the Corner Canyon site on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone (Utah), we develop an approach by which multiple Bayesian models are combined to generate an earthquake history at a site. This approach accommodates mutually exclusive interpretations of the geochronological data and thereby limits the influence of sparse data, stratigraphically inconsistent ages, or a single, subjective model interpretation. For the Corner Canyon site, we integrate four OxCal Bayesian models to generate a chronology of six events between ∼ 4.8 "> ∼ 4.8 and ∼ 0.5    ka "> ∼ 0.5 ka ⁠ . Late Holocene (post‐5 ka) mean recurrence and vertical slip‐rate estimates are ∼ 0.9    ky "> ∼ 0.9 ky (0.7–1.0 ky; 95% confidence) and 1.1    mm / yr "> 1.1 mm / yr ( ⁠ 0.8 – 1.7    mm / yr "> 0.8 – 1.7 mm / yr range), respectively. Although our method increases the uncertainty in the timing of individual earthquakes, it more objectively accounts for potential geochronological errors and different interpretations of stratigraphic age control. By relaxing the need to select a single age model, our approach yields more accurate earthquake‐timing results that will better facilitate evaluations of along‐fault event correlation and earthquake rupture length.

Utah↗
USGS2019

Relaxing segmentation on the Wasatch Fault Zone: Impact on seismic hazard

The multisegment Wasatch fault zone is a well-studied normal fault in the western United States that has paleoseismic evidence of recurrent Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes. Along the 270-km-long central part of the fault, four primary structural complexities provide possible along-strike limits to these ruptures and form the basis for models of fault segmentation. Here, we assess the impact that the Wasatch fault segmentation model has on seismic hazard by evaluating the time-independent long-term rate of ruptures on the fault that satisfy fault slip rates and paleoseismic event rates, adapting standard inverse theory used in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3), and implementing a segmentation constraint where ruptures across primary structural complexities are penalized. We define three models with varying degrees of rupture penalization: (1) segmented (ruptures confined to individual segments), (2) penalized (multi-segment ruptures allowed, but penalized), and (3) unsegmented (all ruptures allowed). Seismic-hazard results show that on average, hazard is highest for the segmented model, where seismic moment is accommodated by frequent moderate (moment magnitude, M w 6.2–6.8) earthquakes. The unsegmented model yields the lowest average seismic hazard because part of the seismic moment is accommodated by large (M w 6.9–7.9), but infrequent ruptures. We compare these results to model differences derived from other inputs such as slip rate and magnitude scaling relationships and conclude that segmentation exerts a primary control on seismic hazard. This study demonstrates the need for additional geologic constraints on rupture extent and methods by which these observations can be included in hazard-modeling efforts.

Utah↗