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Safari Science: Assessing the reliability of citizen science data for wildlife surveys

Protected areas are the cornerstone of global conservation, yet financial support for basic monitoring infrastructure is lacking in 60% of them. Citizen science holds potential to address these shortcomings in wildlife monitoring, particularly for resource-limited conservation initiatives in developing countries – if we can account for the reliability of data produced by volunteer citizen scientists (VCS). This study tests the reliability of VCS data vs. data produced by trained ecologists, presenting a hierarchical framework for integrating diverse datasets to assess extra variability from VCS data. Our results show that while VCS data are likely to be overdispersed for our system, the overdispersion varies widely by species. We contend that citizen science methods, within the context of East African drylands, may be more appropriate for species with large body sizes, which are relatively rare, or those that form small herds. VCS perceptions of the charisma of a species may also influence their enthusiasm for recording it. Tailored programme design (such as incentives for VCS) may mitigate the biases in citizen science data and improve overall participation. However, the cost of designing and implementing high-quality citizen science programmes may be prohibitive for the small protected areas that would most benefit from these approaches. Synthesis and applications . As citizen science methods continue to gain momentum, it is critical that managers remain cautious in their implementation of these programmes while working to ensure methods match data purpose. Context-specific tests of citizen science data quality can improve programme implementation, and separate data models should be used when volunteer citizen scientists' variability differs from trained ecologists' data. Partnerships across protected areas and between protected areas and other conservation institutions could help to cover the costs of citizen science programme design and implementation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Limited hybridisation and introgression despite stocking among endemic Interior Highlands black basses (Centrarchidae: Micropterus)

Aim: Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ; SMB) are globally popular among anglers and have been widely introduced (i.e. stocked) for population management and sportfishing. Importantly, stocking was prevalent before cryptic diversity within the SMB complex was known, which now includes three newly elevated species: Neosho Bass ( M. velox ; NB), Little River Bass ( M. sp. cf. dolomieu Little River; LRB) and Ouachita Bass ( M. sp. cf. dolomieu Ouachita River; OB). We sought to quantify population structure and hybridisation and introgression in these three recently described species. Location: Species-level diversity, particularly in the basin-restricted LRB and OB in the Ouachita Mountains within the Central Interior Highlands (CIH), North America, suggests the presence of distinct genetic variation that could be eroded by introgression. Methods: We estimated interspecific introgression and intraspecific population differentiation in the Smallmouth Bass species complex (SMB-C) using 472 specimens comprising SMB, NB, LRB and OB, including the naturally sympatric Spotted Bass ( M. punctulatus ; SPB). Genomic samples were genotyped on a SNP panel of 192 loci designed to detect allele-sharing on multiple hierarchical levels. Results: We found low range-wide hybridisation between species in the SMB-C and SPB (mostly SMB-C backcrosses), and interspecific heterozygosity varied, indicating differential introgression. Range-wide hybridisation between species in the CIH and SMB was similar overall (but mostly F 2 and CIH backcrosses) and was observed in streams with known SMB stocking in connected reservoirs. Interspecific heterozygosity in SMB hybrids was also generally lower, indicating later-generation backcrosses. We found strong population structure in the Ouachita Mountains (LRB and OB). Main conclusions: Despite isolated incidences of natural (SPB) and human-mediated (SMB) introgression, genomic identity appears intact in endemic LRB and OB, suggesting potential ecological or behavioural isolating mechanisms preventing cross-species reproduction. Our findings reveal that genetic variation remains in cryptic, basin-restricted species in the Ouachita Mountains ecoregion that may be managed for long-term conservation.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

Spatiotemporal patterns and habitat associations of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) invading salmon-rearing habitat

1. Smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) have been widely introduced to fresh waters throughout the world to promote recreational fishing opportunities. In the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.), upstream range expansions of predatory bass, especially into subyearling salmon-rearing grounds, are of increasing conservation concern, yet have received little scientific inquiry. Understanding the habitat characteristics that influence bass distribution and the timing and extent of bass and salmon overlap will facilitate the development of management strategies that mitigate potential ecological impacts of bass. 2. We employed a spatially continuous sampling design to determine the extent of bass and subyearling Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) sympatry in the North Fork John Day River (NFJDR), a free-flowing river system in the Columbia River Basin that contains an upstream expanding population of non-native bass. Extensive (i.e. 53 km) surveys were conducted over 2 years and during an early and late summer period of each year, because these seasons provide a strong contrast in the river’s water temperature and flow condition. Classification and regression trees were applied to determine the primary habitat correlates of bass abundance at reach and channel-unit scales. 3. Our study revealed that bass seasonally occupy up to 22% of the length of the mainstem NFJDR where subyearling Chinook salmon occur, and the primary period of sympatry between these species was in the early summer and not during peak water temperatures in late summer. Where these species co-occurred, bass occupied 60–76% of channel units used by subyearling Chinook salmon in the early summer and 28–46% of the channel units they occupied in the late summer. Because these rearing salmon were well below the gape limitation of bass, this overlap could result in either direct predation or sublethal effects of bass on subyearling Chinook salmon. The upstream extent of bass increased 10–23 km (2009 and 2010, respectively) as stream temperatures seasonally warmed, but subyearling Chinook salmon were also found farther upstream during this time. 4. Our multiscale analysis suggests that bass were selecting habitat based on antecedent thermal history at a broad scale, and if satisfactory temperature conditions were met, mesoscale habitat features (i.e. channel-unit type and depth) played an additional role in determining bass abundance. The upstream extent of bass in the late summer corresponded to a high-gradient geomorphic discontinuity in the NFJDR, which probably hindered further upstream movements of bass. The habitat determinants and upstream extent of bass were largely consistent across years, despite marked differences in the magnitude and timing of spring peak flows prior to bass spawning. 5. The overriding influence of water temperature on smallmouth bass distribution suggests that managers may be able limit future upstream range expansions of bass into salmon-rearing habitat by concentrating on restoration activities that mitigate climate- or land-use-related stream warming. These management activities could be prioritised to capitalise on survival bottlenecks in the life history of bass and spatially focused on landscape knick points such as high-gradient discontinuities to discourage further upstream movements of bass.

Pacific Northwest↗

Distribution and population genetics of walleye and sauger

Conserving genetic diversity and local adaptations are management priorities for wild populations of exploited species, which increasingly are subject to climate change, habitat loss, and pollution. These constitute growing concerns for the walleye Sander vitreus, an ecologically and economically valuable North American temperate fish with large Laurentian Great Lakes' fisheries. This study compares genetic diversity and divergence patterns across its widespread native range using mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region sequences and nine nuclear DNA microsatellite (μsat) loci, examining historic and contemporary influences. We analyze the genetic and morphological characters of a putative endemic variant– “blue pike” S. v. “glaucus” –described from Lakes Erie and Ontario, which became extinct. Walleye with turquoise-colored mucus also are evaluated, since some have questioned whether these are related to the “blue pike”.

BMC Evolutionary Biology↗

Mapping migratory flyways in Asia using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models

Background Identifying movement routes and stopover sites is necessary for developing effective management and conservation strategies for migratory animals. In the case of migratory birds, a collection of migration routes, known as a flyway, is often hundreds to thousands of kilometers long and can extend across political boundaries. Flyways encompass the entire geographic range between the breeding and non-breeding areas of a population, species, or a group of species, and they provide spatial frameworks for management and conservation across international borders. Existing flyway maps are largely qualitative accounts based on band returns and survey data rather than observed movement routes. In this study, we use satellite and GPS telemetry data and dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to build upon existing maps and describe waterfowl space use probabilistically in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. Results Our approach provided new information on migratory routes that was not easily attainable with existing methods to describe flyways. Utilization distributions from dynamic Brownian bridge movement models identified key staging and stopover sites, migration corridors and general flyway outlines in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. A map of space use from ruddy shelducks depicted two separate movement corridors within the Central Asian Flyway, likely representing two distinct populations that show relatively strong connectivity between breeding and wintering areas. Bar-headed geese marked at seven locations in the Central Asian Flyway showed heaviest use at several stopover sites in the same general region of high-elevation lakes along the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our analysis of data from multiple Anatidae species marked at sites throughout Asia highlighted major movement corridors across species and confirmed that the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways were spatially distinct. Conclusions The dynamic Brownian bridge movement model improves our understanding of flyways by estimating relative use of regions in the flyway while providing detailed, quantitative information on migration timing and population connectivity including uncertainty between locations. This model effectively quantifies the relative importance of different migration corridors and stopover sites and may help prioritize specific areas in flyways for conservation of waterbird populations.

Movement Ecology↗

Metapopulation viability of an endangered shorebird depends on dispersal and human-created habitats: Piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) and prairie rivers

Background Many species are distributed as metapopulations in dynamic landscapes, where habitats change through space and time. Individuals locate habitat through dispersal, and the relationship between a species and landscape characteristics can have profound effects on population persistence. Despite the importance of connectivity in dynamic environments, few empirical studies have examined temporal variability in dispersal or its effect on metapopulation dynamics. In response to this knowledge gap, we studied the dispersal, demography, and viability of a metapopulation of an endangered, disturbance-dependent shorebird. We examined three subpopulations of piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) on the lower Platte and Missouri rivers from 2008–2013. High flow events from an upstream dam on the Missouri River in 2010 and 2011 allowed us to assess the effect of total habitat loss and the subsequent creation of new habitat associated with a large disturbance at one ‘natural’ study location. The other two sites within the metapopulation, which were maintained by anthropogenic activities (e.g., mining, development, habitat restoration), were largely unaffected by this disturbance, resulting in a controlled natural experiment. Results High flow events were associated with increased emigration, decreased immigration, and decreased survival in the subpopulation that experienced high flows. Following the high flow event, immigration into that subpopulation increased. Dispersal rates among subpopulations were negatively correlated with distance. The metapopulation had a low probability of extinction over 100 years (0%) under the current disturbance interval and associated dispersal and survival rates. However, persistence depended on relatively stable, human-created habitats, not the dynamic, natural habitat (47.7 % extinction probability for this subpopulation). Conclusions We found that functional connectivity, as measured by the rate of dispersal among subpopulations, increased as a result of the high flow event in our study metapopulation. Plovers also increased reproductive output following this event. Although the study metapopulation had a low overall probability of extinction, metapopulation persistence depended on anthropogenically created habitats that provided a small but stable source of nesting habitat and dispersers through time. However, all subpopulations remained small, even if persistent, making them individually vulnerable to extinction through stochastic events. Given the highly dynamic nature of habitat availability in this system, maintaining several subpopulations within the metapopulation and stable sources of habitat will be critical, and this species will likely remain conservation-reliant.

Nebraska↗

Quantitative and qualitative approaches to identifying migration chronology in a continental migrant

The degree to which extrinsic factors influence migration chronology in North American waterfowl has not been quantified, particularly for dabbling ducks. Previous studies have examined waterfowl migration using various methods, however, quantitative approaches to define avian migration chronology over broad spatio-temporal scales are limited, and the implications for using different approaches have not been assessed. We used movement data from 19 female adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) equipped with solar-powered global positioning system satellite transmitters to evaluate two individual level approaches for quantifying migration chronology. The first approach defined migration based on individual movements among geopolitical boundaries (state, provincial, international), whereas the second method modeled net displacement as a function of time using nonlinear models. Differences in migration chronologies identified by each of the approaches were examined with analysis of variance. The geopolitical method identified mean autumn migration midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 13 November 2011, whereas the net displacement method identified midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 14 November 2011. The mean midpoints for spring migration were 3 April 2011 and 20 March 2012 using the geopolitical method and 31 March 2011 and 22 March 2012 using the net displacement method. The duration, initiation date, midpoint, and termination date for both autumn and spring migration did not differ between the two individual level approaches. Although we did not detect differences in migration parameters between the different approaches, the net displacement metric offers broad potential to address questions in movement ecology for migrating species. Ultimately, an objective definition of migration chronology will allow researchers to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the extrinsic factors that drive migration at the individual and population levels. As a result, targeted conservation plans can be developed to support planning for habitat management and evaluation of long-term climate effects.

PLoS ONE↗

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

Mapping vegetation communities in Ozark National Scenic Riverways: final technical report to the National Park Service

Vegetation communities were mapped at two levels in Ozark National Scenic Riverways (ONSR) usign a hybrid combination of statistical methods and photointerpretation. The primary map includes 49 cover classes, including 24 cleasses that relate to vegetation associations currenly described by the United States National Vegetation Classification Standard (USNVC: The Nature Conservancy, 1994a). The remaining types include cultural features, ruderal communities on abandoned agricultural lands, and non-vegetated classes. Overall map classification accuarcy is 63 percent. The secondary mapping level aggregates communities with similar appearance and ecologically related associations into Community Types. The resultant 33-class Community Type map has an overall classification accuracy of 77 percent and identified groups of communities based on resource management goals within the park. Important additional products include 1) a general probability map for all vegetation associations, which can be used to assess final classification certainty, and 2) individual probability maps for each association, which can be used to identify areas that have a high likelihood of supporting a given type, beyond where that type was identified in the final map products. Other secondary map products include data layers derived from primary color-infrared imagery, secondary imagery data and digital elevation models. A field key and photo guide to associations and complete community descriptions were produced, along with a photo guide of fuel conditions. Wildland fuels data were used to generate a fuels map based upon Anderson's fuels models (1982).

Missouri↗

Should heterogeneity be the basis for conservation? Grassland bird response to fire and grazing

In tallgrass prairie, disturbances such as grazing and fire can generate patchiness across the landscape, contributing to a shifting mosaic that presumably enhances biodiversity. Grassland birds evolved within the context of this shifting mosaic, with some species restricted to one or two patch types created under spatially and temporally distinct disturbance regimes. Thus, management-driven reductions in heterogeneity may be partly responsible for declines in numbers of grassland birds. We experimentally altered spatial heterogeneity of vegetation structure within a tallgrass prairie by varying the spatial and temporal extent of fire and by allowing grazing animals to move freely among burned and unburned patches (patch treatment). We contrasted this disturbance regime with traditional agricultural management of the region that promotes homogeneity (traditional treatment). We monitored grassland bird abundance during the breeding seasons of 2001-2003 to determine the influence of altered spatial heterogeneity on the grassland bird community. Focal disturbances of patch burning and grazing that shifted through the landscape over several years resulted in a more heterogeneous pattern of vegetation than uniform application of fire and grazing. Greater spatial heterogeneity in vegetation provided greater variability in the grassland bird community. Some bird species occurred in greatest abundance within focally disturbed patches, while others occurred in relatively undisturbed patches in our patch treatment. Henslow's Sparrow, a declining species, occurred only within the patch treatment. Upland Sandpiper and some other species were more abundant on recently disturbed patches within the same treatment. The patch burn treatment created the entire gradient of vegetation structure required to maintain a suite of grassland bird species that differ in habitat preferences. Our study demonstrated that increasing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of disturbance in grasslands increases variability in vegetation structure that results in greater variability at higher trophic levels. Thus, management that creates a shifting mosaic using spatially and temporally discrete disturbances in grasslands can be a useful tool in conservation. In the case of North American tallgrass prairie, discrete fires that capitalize on preferential grazing behavior of large ungulates promote a shifting mosaic of habitat types that maintain biodiversity and agricultural productivity. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

Multispecies approaches to status assessments in support of endangered species classifications

Multispecies risk assessments have developed within many international conservation programs, reflecting a widespread need for efficiency. Under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA), multispecies assessments ultimately lead to species-level listing decisions. Although this approach provides opportunities for improved efficiency, it also risks overwhelming or biasing the assessment process and would benefit from clear guidance for practitioners. We reviewed multispecies assessments conducted between 1993 and 2019 for ESA listing decisions to identify the ecological basis for combining species, the assessment approach used, and the policy factors influencing their efficacy. We identified 42 cases covering 359 species. Most assessments (81%) included two to five species, although the maximum was 82. A common theme involved grouping narrow endemics or habitat specialists based on taxonomic relatedness, similar distributions, and common threats to persistence. All assessments included a combined threats analysis, but few employed a common species' response model or expert elicitation process. Although ESA risk assessments are distinct from policy decisions, most assessments (50%) supported decisions that all species warranted endangered status. Available guidance has generally emphasized ecological similarity as the key attribute leading to successful multispecies assessments. The challenge with consistently selecting species based on qualitative proxies such as common distributions or threats to persistence is that ecological patterns and processes are scale dependent. Focusing instead on the assessment methods and their potential for bias and increased efficiency may provide a stronger basis for developing consistent and transparent guidance.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

Conservation of greater sage-grouse- a synthesis of current trends and future management

Recent analyses of Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations indicate substantial declines in many areas but relatively stable populations in other portions of the species? range. Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats neces-sary to support sage-grouse are being burned by large wildfires, invaded by nonnative plants, and developed for energy resources (gas, oil, and wind). Management on public lands, which con-tain 70% of sagebrush habitats, has changed over the last 30 years from large sagebrush control projects directed at enhancing livestock grazing to a greater emphasis on projects that often attempt to improve or restore ecological integrity. Never-theless, the mandate to manage public lands to provide traditional consumptive uses as well as recreation and wilderness values is not likely to change in the near future. Consequently, demand and use of resources contained in sagebrush land-scapes plus the associated infrastructure to sup-port increasing human populations in the western United States will continue to challenge efforts to conserve Greater Sage-Grouse. The continued widespread distribution of sage-grouse, albeit at very low densities in some areas, coupled with large areas of important sagebrush habitat that are relatively unaffected by the human footprint, sug-gest that Greater Sage-Grouse populations may be able to persist into the future. We summarize the status of sage-grouse populations and habitats, provide a synthesis of major threats and chal-lenges to conservation of sage-grouse, and suggest a roadmap to attaining conservation goals.

Book chapter↗

Exploring management options for moose at their southern range limits considering growing disease risk

1. Populations of cold-adapted species are increasingly vulnerable along their low-latitude range limits due to shifting environmental conditions, biotic interactions, and anthropogenic pressures. Managing these populations is particularly challenging because of complex ecological dynamics, conflicting stakeholder interests, and decision-making under uncertainty. 2. We explored population growth (λ) of moose ( Alces alces ) under different hypothetical management scenarios, simulating combinations of five hypothetical harvest levels with three levels of disease impact. 3. Facing current disease, the population could support multiple levels of conservative harvest. Under elevated levels of disease-caused mortality, projections indicated declines for all harvest scenarios. We projected increases across all harvest scenarios when overlap with white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) was hypothetically reduced and disease mortality in moose minimized. We investigated whether uncertainty in moose demographic parameters altered population trajectory, and found changes in adult fecundity and calf survival could alter harvest decisions when λ<1. 4. Practical implication . While moose population trajectories may remain stable under current conditions, management of white-tailed deer that reduces moose exposure to lethal parasites may provide the greatest utility in sustaining moose in New York given the potential for increased disease. Continued monitoring of population size, growth, and disease prevalence would inform sustainable moose harvest levels that balance social and ecological management considerations.

New York↗

Protection of mammal diversity in Central America

Central America is exceptionally rich in biodiversity, but varies widely in the attention its countries devote to conservation. Protected areas, widely considered the cornerstone of conservation, were not always created with the intent of conserving that biodiversity. We assessed how well the protected-area system of Central America includes the region's mammal diversity. This first required a refinement of existing range maps to reduce their extensive errors of commission (i.e., predicted presences in places where species do not occur). For this refinement, we used the ecological limits of each species to identify and remove unsuitable areas from the range. We then compared these maps with the locations of protected areas to measure the habitat protected for each of the region's 250 endemic mammals. The species most vulnerable to extinction—those with small ranges—were largely outside protected areas. Nevertheless, the most strictly protected areas tended toward areas with many small-ranged species. To improve the protection coverage of mammal diversity in the region, we identified a set of priority sites that would best complement the existing protected areas. Protecting these new sites would require a relatively small increase in the total area protected, but could greatly enhance mammal conservation.

Conservation Biology↗

Trends in Rocky Mountain amphibians and the role of beaver as a keystone species

Despite prevalent awareness of global amphibian declines, there is still little information on trends for many widespread species. To inform land managers of trends on protected landscapes and identify potential conservation strategies, we collected occurrence data for five wetland-breeding amphibian species in four national parks in the U.S. Rocky Mountains during 2002&ndash;2011. We used explicit dynamics models to estimate variation in annual occupancy, extinction, and colonization of wetlands according to summer drought and several biophysical characteristics (e.g., wetland size, elevation), including the influence of North American beaver ( Castor canadensis ). We found more declines in occupancy than increases, especially in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks (NP), where three of four species declined since 2002. However, most species in Rocky Mountain NP were too rare to include in our analysis, which likely reflects significant historical declines. Although beaver were uncommon, their creation or modification of wetlands was associated with higher colonization rates for 4 of 5 amphibian species, producing a 34% increase in occupancy in beaver-influenced wetlands compared to wetlands without beaver influence. Also, colonization rates and occupancy of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) and Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) were ⩾2 times higher in beaver-influenced wetlands. These strong relationships suggest management for beaver that fosters amphibian recovery could counter declines in some areas. Our data reinforce reports of widespread declines of formerly and currently common species, even in areas assumed to be protected from most forms of human disturbance, and demonstrate the close ecological association between beaver and wetland-dependent species.

Biological Conservation↗

Scenario planning and multispecies occupancy models reveal positive avian responses to restoration of afforested woodlands

Scenario planning is a powerful approach for assessing restoration outcomes under alternative futures. However, developing plausible scenarios remains daunting in complex systems like ecological communities. Here, we used Bayesian multispecies occupancy modeling to develop scenarios to assess woodland restoration outcomes in afforested communities in seven wildlife management areas in Arkansas, U.S.A. Our objectives were (1) to define plausible woodland restoration and afforestation scenarios by quantifying historic ranges of variation in mean tree cover and tree cover heterogeneity from 1986 to 2021 and (2) to predict changes in bird species richness and occupancy patterns for six species of greatest conservation need under two future scenarios: complete afforestation (100% tree cover) and woodland restoration (based on remotely sensed historic tree cover). Using 35 years of remotely sensed tree cover data and 6 years of bird monitoring data, we developed multispecies occupancy models to predict future bird species richness and occupancy under the complete afforestation and woodland restoration scenarios. Between 1986 and 2021, tree cover increased in all study areas—with one increasing 70%. Under the woodland restoration scenario, avian species richness increased up to 20%, and four of six species of greatest conservation need exhibited gains in occupancy probability. The complete afforestation scenario had negligible effects on richness and occupancy. Overall, we found decreasing tree cover to historic levels prior to widespread afforestation would provide community-level benefits and would do little harm even to forest-dependent species of conservation concern. Applying multispecies occupancy modeling within a scenario planning framework allows for comparing multiscale trade-offs between plausible futures.

Restoration Ecology↗

Ecological influence and pathways of land use in sagebrush

Land use in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) landscapes influences all sage-grouse (Centrocer-cus spp.) populations in western North America. Croplands and the network of irrigation canals cover 230,000 km2 and indirectly influence up to 77% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 73% of sagebrush land cover by subsidizing synanthropic predators on sage-grouse. Urbanization and the demands of human population growth have created an extensive network of con-necting infrastructure that is expanding its influence on sagebrush landscapes. Over 2,500 km 2 are now covered by interstate highways and paved roads; when secondary roads are included, 15% of the Sage-Grouse Conservation Area and 5% of existing sagebrush habitats are 2.5 km from roads. Density of secondary roads often exceeds 5 km/km 2 , resulting in widespread motorized access for recreation, creating extensive travel corridors for management actions and resource development, subsidizing predators adapted to human presence, and facilitating spread of exotic or invasive plants. Sagebrush lands also are being used for their wilderness and recreation values, including off highway vehicle use. Approximately 12,000,000 animal use months (AUM amount of forage to support one livestock unit per month) are permitted for grazing livestock on public lands in the western states. Direct effects of grazing on sage-grouse populations or sagebrush landscapes are not possible to assess from current data. However, management of lands grazed by livestock has influenced sagebrush ecosystems by vegetation treatments to increase forage and reduce sagebrush and other plant species unpalatable to livestock. Fences (2 km/km 2 in some regions), roads, and water developments to manage livestock movements further modify the landscape. Oil and gas development influences 8% of the sagebrush habitats with the highest intensities occurring in the eastern range of sage-grouse; 20% of the sagebrush distribution is indirectly influenced in the Great Plains, Wyoming Basin, and Colorado Plateau SMZs. Energy development physically removes habitat to construct well pads, roads, power lines, and pipelines; indirect effects include habitat fragmentation, soil disturbance, and facilitation of exotic plant and animal spread. More recent development of alternative energy, such as wind and geothermal, creates infrastructure in new regions of the sage-grouse distribution. Land use will continue to be a dominant stressor on sage-brush systems; its individual and cumulative effects will challenge long-term conservation of sage-grouse populations.

Book chapter↗

The tortoise and the antilocaprid: Adapting GPS tracking and terrain data to model wildlife walking functions

Context The relationship between slope and terrestrial animal locomotion is key to landscape ecology but underexplored across species. This is partly due to a lack of scalable methodology that applies to a diversity of wildlife. Objectives This study investigates the slope-speed relationship for two species, Texas tortoise ( Gopherus berlandieri ) and pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ), through the combined application of remote sensing, GPS tracking, behavior models, and parametric distribution. While using readily available Digital Elevation Models (DEM) for pronghorn, we explore the use of very high-resolution lidar Digital Terrain Models (DTM) from Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) to characterize tortoise movements at micro-scales. Methods After classifying animal behavior with GPS tracking data and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), we analyzed the relationship between the speed of the animals and the slope of the terrain using a 30-m DEM for pronghorn, and a fine-scale UAS DTM for Texas tortoise, and three nonlinear models: Laplace, Gauss, and Lorentz. Results High-resolution DTM, coupled with GPS tracking, accurately models the relationship of speed and slope at a micro-scale, while a DEM is suitable for a larger scale. Laplace models best predicted the speed of both the Texas tortoise and pronghorn. Models showed tortoises, which are not known for rapid and agile movement like the pronghorn, have a broader tolerance for varying slopes at a fine scale. Conclusions These findings enhance understanding of species-specific movement offering valuable insights for habitat management and conservation tailored to species’ behaviors and capabilities.

Colorado, Texas, Wyoming↗