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Aerial counts for surface-nesting seabirds at Lehua Island and Moku Manu Islet and Ulupaʻu Crater, Oʻahu, in 2019

Among important seabird breeding sites in the main Hawaiian Islands, Lehua Island offshore Niʻihau and Moku Manu Islets offshore Oʻahu support diverse and abundant seabird breeding populations. Both offshore islands provide excellent nesting habitat for surface-nesting boobies ( Sula spp .) and terns but, of the two, only Moku Manu supports relatively large breeding populations of Sooty Tern ( Onychoprion fuscatus ) and Brown Noddy ( Anous stolidus ). Additionally, Ulupaʻu Crater, near Moku Manu on Oʻahu, is one of only a few sites within the eight main Hawaiian islands and the only site on the main island of Oʻahu that supports a nesting population of Red-footed Boobies ( Sula sula ). Despite their importance for informing renewable offshore energy planning off Hawaiʻi, robust and accurate seabird population survey data exist and are available for some locations (Lehua; Raine and others, 2021), but at Moku Manu and Ulupa‘u Crater, recent information are not yet available (E. VanderWerf, written commun. 2021). In this study, we completed comprehensive aerial photographic counts at these three sites for six surface-nesting seabird species present during the 2019 breeding season: Brown Booby ( Sula leucogaster ), Red-footed Booby, Masked Booby ( S. dactylatra ), Great Frigatebird ( Fregata minor ), Sooty Tern, and Brown Noddy. We estimated 5,782, 102, and 1,446 nesting pairs of Red-footed Boobies at Lehua, Ulupaʻu Crater, and Moku Manu, respectively. At Lehua and Moku Manu, we estimated 692 and 65 nesting pairs of Brown Boobies, respectively. At Moku Manu, we estimated 95 nesting pairs of Masked Boobies, one of only three nesting locales for this species in the main Hawaiian Islands. Based on digital photograph counts of sampled areas and area-based extrapolation, we estimated 17,938 terns (mostly Sooty Tern with fewer Brown Noddy) on Moku Manu. We observed Great Frigatebirds roosting at the two island sites, but we did not detect any sign of nesting for this species. We found that inter-observer counts for behavioral classifications (nesting, roosting, unknown) ranged in precision (D=0.13–0.31), but generally, counts among photographs accounting for all seabird targets (D=0.10–0.22) and for boobies classified as nesting (D=0.13–0.18) were more precise than for roosting and unknown categories (D=0.13–0.31), indicating that at least some of the variation in count precision relates to differences in how independent counters identified behavioral classifications. The nesting population sizes (and number of terns present on Moku Manu) present during aerial counts likely are minimum estimates because individuals among these species can exhibit asynchronous nesting phenologies, and not all members of the nesting populations would be expected to be attending the sites when we surveyed. The results of these counts provide current and accurate abundance estimates for these species that can serve as benchmarks for future management and monitoring and as important components of population-level assessments aimed at quantifying seabird vulnerability to potential offshore wind energy development in the main Hawaiian Islands.

Hawaii↗

Hydrology of the dunes area north of Coos Bay, Oregon

Hydrology of a 20-square-mile area of dunes along the central Oregon coast was studied. The area is underlain by 80 to 150 feet of Quaternary dune and marine sand which overlies Tertiary marine clay and shale. Ground water for industrial and municipal use is being withdrawn at a rate of 4 million gallons per day. Original plans to withdraw as much as 30 million gallons per day are evidently limited by the prospect of excessive lowering of levels in shallow lakes near the wells, and possibly sea-water intrusion, if water-level gradients are reversed. At the present stage of development there are 18 production wells, each capable of producing 200-300 gallons per minute from the lower part of the sand deposits. Except for thin layers of silt, clay, and organic matter, the deposits of sand are clean and uniform; horizontal permeability is two orders of magnitude times the vertical permeability. Because of the low vertical permeability, drawdown cones are not evident in the upper part of the aquifer adjacent to the wells. However, present pumping lowers general water levels in the lakes and the shallow ground-water zone as much as several feet. A two-layer electric analog model was built to analyze effects of present and projected development as well as any alternate plans. Model results were used to develop curves for short-term prediction of water levels.

Open-File Report↗

Hydrogeologic characterization, groundwater chemistry, and vulnerability assessment, Ute Mountain Ute Reservation, Colorado and Utah

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe (UMUT), initiated a study in 2016 to increase understanding of the hydrogeology and chemistry of groundwater within select areas of the Ute Mountain Ute Reservation (UMUR) in Colorado and Utah, identify vulnerabilities to the system and other natural resources, and outline information needs to aid in the understanding and protection of groundwater resources. The results presented for this study can be used to support the UMUT’s goal of protecting their vital groundwater resources on the UMUR. Hydrogeologic conditions were characterized for the surficial aquifer contained in Quaternary-age unconsolidated surficial deposits and the Dakota aquifer contained in the Cretaceous-age Dakota Sandstone. In the surficial aquifer, median depth to water ranges from about 5.4 to 17.2 feet below land surface in the Farm and Ranch Enterprise area and 11 to 34 feet below land surface in the Towaoc area, and the water table slopes generally southwest or south. A map of depth to the top of the Dakota Sandstone was constructed from existing well data. Depths range from zero in outcrop areas to more than 3,000 feet below land surface on mesas in the southeastern part of the UMUR. Groundwater-chemistry data were collected by the UMUT from 13 springs and 31 wells from 1996 through 2017. Specific conductance was much lower for samples from springs than from wells; median values were 512 and 6,024 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius, respectively. Spring samples were well oxygenated. A few well samples were anoxic (dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 0.5 milligrams per liter [mg/L]), indicating reducing conditions in the aquifer. About 75 percent of spring samples had fresh water (total dissolved solids concentrations less than 1,000 mg/L), and about 85 percent of well samples had brackish or highly saline water (total dissolved solids concentrations greater than 1,000 mg/L). Water type for springs on the Ute Mountains was calcium bicarbonate. Lower-altitude springs had a calcium-sulfate water type. Most well samples had sodium as the dominant cation, and sulfate, bicarbonate, and chloride as the dominant anions. Fluoride concentrations in about 45 percent of well samples were greater than an agricultural-use standard of 2 mg/L. Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations in most spring and well samples were less than about 1.6 mg/L per liter. Concentrations in samples from wells in the irrigated agricultural area were elevated; the maximum concentration was 78.5 mg/L. About one-half of the trace-element samples had concentrations that were less than laboratory reporting limits. Only aluminum, arsenic, and selenium in spring samples, and boron and selenium in well samples, were detected at concentrations greater than surface-water standards or water-quality standards for agricultural use of groundwater. Only three organic compounds, the pesticides alachlor and atrazine and the volatile organic compound di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, were detected in well samples. The Escherichia coli bacteria was detected in 47 and 23 percent of samples from wells and springs, respectively. The E. coli detections included samples from three culturally significant springs, which did not meet the UMUT cultural-use standard of total absence of E. coli. Tritium and carbon-14 were the primary environmental tracers used for interpreting groundwater ages for Lopez 2 Spring and five wells (AP–1, 5000 Block, Cottonwood Spring, Goodknight, and SE Toe). Water from the AP–1 well contained a mixture of pre- and post-1950s recharge. Tritium and carbon-14 recharge ages for Lopez 2 Spring (post-1950s in age), Goodknight and SE Toe wells (pre-1950s in age), and Cottonwood Spring well (primarily pre-1950s in age) are supported by helium-4 data. The helium-4 data for the 5000 Block well are inconsistent with the tritium and carbon-14 age of pre-1950s recharge because of interference caused by high methane concentrations in the water. Springs and surficial deposits are more vulnerable to contamination from anthropogenic chemicals than deeper bedrock wells. Bedrock aquifers are vulnerable in areas where the geologic formations containing the aquifers are exposed at the land surface. Groundwater in deep bedrock aquifers is likely thousands of years old and is not currently affected by present-day land uses. Both shallow and deep groundwater are vulnerable to naturally occurring salts and minerals, such as of total dissolved solids, major ions, nitrate, and trace elements. Effects of a changing climate on water resources and other ecological characteristics of the UMUR could include changes in evapotranspiration, a decrease in snowpack, decreased aquifer recharge and flow of springs, a decrease in soil moisture, and increased occurrence of wildfires and forest mortality. Of particular interest for the UMUT are possible effects of a changing climate on medicinal and culturally important plants and springs Several information needs were identified during this study that would aid in the understanding and protection of groundwater resources on the UMUR. These include well-completion information for bedrock wells, the collection of environmental tracer data at additional wells, the addition of methane and hydrocarbon analysis to well sampling plans, and the resampling of springs and wells that were last sampled in 2002 or earlier.

Colorado↗

Environmental impacts of petroleum production--Initial results from the Osage-Skiatook Petroleum Environmental Research Sites, Osage County, Oklahoma

Exploration for and production of petroleum have caused major detrimental impacts to soils, surface and ground waters, and the local ecosystems in the United States. These impacts arise primarily from the improper disposal of large volumes of saline water produced with oil and gas, from accidental hydrocarbon and produced water releases, and from abandoned oil wells that were not correctly sealed. It is important to understand the long-term and short-term effects of produced water and hydrocarbon releases from these sites in order to develop risk-based remediation plans. Remediation is particularly needed in aging and depleted fields where land use is changing from petroleum production to residential, agricultural or recreational uses. About 20 scientists from the USGS and other governmental agencies and academia are involved in a multidisciplinary investigation to study the transport, fate, and natural attenuation of inorganic salts, trace metals, organic compounds and radionuclides present in produced water, and their impacts at the Osage-Skiatook Petroleum Environmental Research (OSPER) 'A' and 'B' sites, located on the Osage Reservation in Osage County, Oklahoma. Stakeholders in the project include the Osage Nation, which holds the mineral rights, the Bureau of Indian Affairs with trust responsibility, and the Army Corps of Engineers, which owns the surface rights at these sites and manages adjacent Skiatook Lake. The 4250-hectare Skiatook Lake provides drinking water to local Tulsa suburban communities and a rural water district, and offers recreational fishing and boating opportunities to tens of thousands of visitors each year. Approximately 1.5 and 1.0 hectare of land at the OSPER 'A' (depleted Lester lease) and 'B' (active Branstetter lease) sites, respectively, are affected by salt scarring, tree kills, soil salinization and brine and petroleum contamination due to the leakage of produced water and associated hydrocarbons from brine pits and accidental releases from active and inactive pipes and tank batteries. The leases are typical of many depleted and aging petroleum fields in Osage County, which ranks among the top oil and gas producing counties in Oklahoma with about 39,000 wells. Oil and gas production has occurred in Osage county for over one hundred years, but current production is mainly from stripper wells (averaging ~2.8 bbl/d oil and >30 bbl/d brine) that are shallow, mostly 300-700 m in depth, and produce from several sandstones of Pennsylvanian age. Results to date show that the produced water source is a Na-Ca-Cl brine (~150,000 mg/L total dissolved solids), with relatively high concentrations of Mg, Sr, and NH4, but low SO4 and H2S. With the exception of Fe and Mn, the concentrations of trace metals are low. Results also show that some and, eventually, the bulk, of inorganic salts and some dissolved organic species in the released brine from both sites will reach Skiatook Lake. Results at the 'A' site show that the salts have essentially been removed from the sandy soil which formed in a surficial layer of eolian sand, but degraded and weathered oil persists on the surface of old oil and brine pits, close to sites of old tanks, on old channels that carried oil from tanks to the oil pits and other impacted areas. Results also show a plume of high salinity water (5,000-30,600 mg/L TDS) is present at intermediate depths that extend from below the old oil and brine pits to Skiatook Lake. No liquid petroleum was found in the contaminated groundwater, but soluble petroleum byproducts, including organic acid anions and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are present. Results to date clearly show that significant amounts of salts from produced-water releases and petroleum hydrocarbons still remain in the soils and rocks of the impacted area after more than 60 years of natural attenuation.

Oklahoma↗

Responses of Raptorial Birds to Low Level Military Jets and Sonic Booms: Results of the 1980-1981 Joint U.S. Air Force-U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Study

Summary: For this study, we gathered several kinds of data to determine the likely effects of low level jets and sonic booms on nesting Peregrine Falcons and other raptors. We directly observed responses to worst case stimulus loads: responses to extremely frequent and extremely nearby jet aircraft were often minimal, seldom significant and never associated with reproductive failure. Likewise, responses to real and simulated sonic booms were often minimal and never productivity limiting. In addition to directly observing behavioral responses, in 1981 we invited jet passes at four Prairie Falcon eyries during courtship and incubation when the adults were most likely to abandon, on an ad libitum basis. All four eyries fledged young. Nesting success and site reoccupancy rates were high for all eyries. In tests of two relatively naive captive Peregrine Falcons, we failed to detect significantly negative responses. Typically the birds either quickly resumed feeding or other activities within a few seconds following a pass or boom. The female falcon repeatedly made hunting forays as jets swept overhead. From heart rate (HR) data taken via a telemetering egg during incubation at a wild Prairie Falcon eyrie, we determined that stimulus induced HR alterations were comparable to rate changes of the birds settling to incubate following flight. No significant long term responses were identified. The falcons successfully fledged two young even with the more disruptive activities associated with entering the eyrie three times to position and recover the telemetering eggs. Significantly, birds ofprey of several genera commonly nest in the supersonic military operations areas in southern Arizona. In addition, raptor eyries are frequently found at locations where low level jet traffic naturally concentrates. For example, Prairie Falcon Site 11 is directly on the approach path to strafing and bombing targets. Prairie Falcon Site 1 is in a narrow canyon through which A-10 aircraft naturally funnel while flying low altitude tactical navigation (LATN) missions. Both sites successfully fledged young both years of the study. In summary, while the birds observed for this study were often noticeably alarmed by the subject stimuli, the negative responses were brief and never productivity limiting. In general, the birds were incredibly tolerant of stimulus loads which would likely be unacceptable to humans. It is significant that the endangered species recovery plan for the Peregrine Falcon in the southwest (USFWS 1977) fails to mention military jet operations as a likely factor in the falcon's decrease or that military jet operations should be taken into account in the species recovery.

Book↗

Vegetation model technical report

The vegetation model (LAVegMod) described in this appendix is the next generation of a similar model (habitat switching module) initially developed as part of the Louisiana Coastal Area study. LAVegMod divides the original 5-habitat model for the Louisiana coast into 19 vegetation types. LAVegMod provides longer estimates of interannual variation in aboveground biomass; however, biomass varies with vegetation type. The model is intended as a tool for protection and restoration planning that provides repeatable estimates of the changes in species composition based on changes in hydrology and wetland area. This tool is dependent on other models that forecast changes in hydrology and wetland area.

Louisiana↗

Susitna Hydroelectric Project: terrestrial environmental workshop and preliminary simulation model

The technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impacts of a hydroelectric development project in the Susitna River Basin are being studied by Acres American, Inc. on behalf of the Alaska Power Authority. As part of these studies, Acres American recently contracted LGL Alaska Research Associates, Inc. to coordinate the terrestrial environmental studies being performed by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and, as subcontractors to LGL, several University of Alaska research groups. LGL is responsible for further quantifying the potential impacts of the project on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for developing a plan to mitigate adverse impacts on the terrestrial environment. The impact assessment and mitigation plan will be included as part of a license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) scheduled for the first quarter of 1983. The quantification of impacts, mitigation planning, and design of future research is being organized using a computer simulation modelling approach. Through a series of workshops attended by researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers, a computer model is being developed and refined for use in the quantification of impacts on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for evaluating different mitigation measures such as habitat enhancement and the designation of replacement lands to be managed by wildlife habitat. This report describes the preliminary model developed at the first workshop held August 23 -27, 1982 in Anchorage.

Report↗

Simulating hydrologic response to climate change scenarios in four selected watersheds of New Hampshire

The State of New Hampshire has initiated a coordinated effort to proactively prepare for the effects of climate change on the natural and human resources of New Hampshire. An important aspect of this effort is to develop a vulnerability assessment of hydrologic response to climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, is developing tools to predict how projected changes in temperature and precipitation will affect change in the hydrology of watersheds in the State. This study is a test case to assemble the information and create the tools to assess the hydrologic vulnerabilities in four specific watersheds. The study uses output from general circulation models to drive hydrologic simulations of streamflow, groundwater base flow (hereafter referred to as base flow), and snowfall in four representative watersheds in New Hampshire during the 21st century, including the watersheds of the Ashuelot, Oyster, Pemigewasset, and Souhegan Rivers. Simulations show that on average, relative to current conditions, streamflow is likely to increase and base flow is likely to decrease, although this change is highly variable by geographic location and season. Streamflow variability will likely increase, with more high streamflows and more low streamflows. The largest increases in streamflow are in the winter, with small decreases in summer. Change in base flow varies across the State with the largest change in the northern Pemigewasset River watershed. Changes in snowfall are consistently decreasing for all watersheds on average, with the largest change also in the Pemigewasset. However, monthly snowfall totals during any given winter could be higher in the future than expected under current conditions. Increasing frequency of floods (the largest seven floods expected to occur in 20 years) could be more significant than the size of the floods, except in the northern high altitude watersheds. In other words, the projections indicate a pattern of multiple floods that might not breach the riverbanks, yet the increased frequency could put additional strain on the existing river banks, infrastructure, and nearby human settlements. There is also likely to be an increase in high flows during the winter and spring months, which could result in more uncertainty in planning for the design, operation, and maintenance of infrastructure, including roads and utilities. Similarly, it is expected that, on average, there will be less base flow available and a wider range of seasonal fluctuation in base flow than experienced historically. These issues could necessitate more attention to planning and management of the resource. Based on past experience, the most important effects of climate change could be less certain planning options and a greater need for planning that accounts for the effects of larger streamflows than are currently available. The effects of hydrologic change on human health and well-being could be most readily apparent with respect to changes in streamflow and the subsequent increase in the frequency of minor flooding and the frequency of summer and fall low streamflows. These changes could require the development of plans to adapt, protect, and upgrade infrastructure, such as bridges, culverts, roads, and other structures. The precipitation runoff modeling shows that rivers and watersheds in New Hampshire will likely change in response to climate change, and that this response varies with season and latitude. Although four representative areas were simulated in this study, additional models could be used to predict the response over the entire State.

New Hampshire↗

Predicting future grizzly bear habitat use in the Bitterroot Ecosystem under recolonization and reintroduction scenarios

Many conservation actions must be implemented with limited data. This is especially true when planning recovery efforts for extirpated populations, such as grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) within the Bitterroot Ecosystem (BE), where strategies for reestablishing a resident population are being evaluated. Here, we applied individual-based movement models developed for a nearby grizzly bear population to predict habitat use in and near the BE, under scenarios of natural recolonization, reintroduction, and a combination. All simulations predicted that habitat use by grizzly bears would be higher in the northern half of the study area. Under the natural recolonization scenario, use was concentrated in Montana, but became more uniform across the northern BE in Idaho over time. Use was more concentrated in east-central Idaho under the reintroduction scenario. Assuming that natural recolonization continues even if bears are reintroduced, use remained widespread across the northern half of the BE and surrounding areas. Predicted habitat maps for the natural recolonization scenario aligned well with outlier and GPS collar data available for grizzly bears in the study area, with Spearman rank correlations of ≥0.93 and mean class values of ≥9.1 (where class 10 was the highest relative predicted use; each class 1–10 represented 10% of the landscape). In total, 52.4% of outlier locations and 79% of GPS collar locations were in class 10 in our predicted habitat maps for natural recolonization. Simulated grizzly bears selected habitats over a much larger landscape than the BE itself under all scenarios, including multiple-use and private lands, similar to existing populations that have expanded beyond recovery zones. This highlights the importance of recognizing and planning for the role of private lands in recovery efforts, including understanding resources needed to prevent and respond to human-grizzly bear conflict and maintain public acceptance of grizzly bears over a large landscape.

Idaho, Montana↗

A genetic assessment of the recovery units for the mojave population of the desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii

In the 1994 Recovery Plan for the Mojave population of the desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii, the US Fish and Wildlife Service established 6 recovery units by using the best available data on habitat use, behavior, morphology, and genetics. To further assess the validity of the recovery units, we analyzed genetic data by using mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid (mtDNA) sequences and nuclear DNA microsatellites. In total, 125 desert tortoises were sampled for mtDNA and 628 for microsatellites from 31 study sites, representing all recovery units and desert regions throughout the Mojave Desert in California and Utah, and the Colorado Desert of California. The mtDNA revealed a great divergence between the Mojave populations west of the Colorado River and those occurring east of the river in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. Some divergence also occurred between northern and southern populations within the Mojave population. The microsatellites indicated a low frequency of private alleles and a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distance among 31 sample sites, which was consistent with an isolation-by-distance population structure. Regional genetic differentiation was complementary to the recovery units in the Recovery Plan. Most allelic frequencies in the recovery units differed. An assignment test correctly placed most individuals to their recovery unit of origin. Of the 6 recovery units, the Northeastern and the Upper Virgin River units showed the greatest differentiation; these units may have been relatively more isolated than other areas and should be managed accordingly. The Western Mojave Recovery Unit, by using the new genetic data, was redefined along regional boundaries into the Western Mojave, Central Mojave, and Southern Mojave recovery units. Large-scale translocations of tortoises and habitat disturbance throughout the 20th century may have contributed to the observed patterns of regional similarity. ?? 2007 Chelonian Research Foundation.

California↗

New global hydrography derived from spaceborne elevation data

To study the Earth system and to better understand the implications of global environmental change, there is a growing need for large-scale hydrographic data sets that serve as prerequisites in a variety of analyses and applications, ranging from regional watershed and freshwater conservation planning to global hydrological, climate, biogeochemical, and land surface modeling. Yet while countless hydrographic maps exist for well-known river basins and individual nations, there is a lack of seamless high-quality data on large scales such as continents or the entire globe. Data for many large international basins are patchy, and remote areas are often poorly mapped. In response to these limitations, a team of scientists has developed data and created maps of the world's rivers that provide the research community with more reliable information about where streams and watersheds occur on the Earth's surface and how water drains the landscape. The new product, known as HydroSHEDS (Hydrological Data and Maps Based on Shuttle Elevation Derivatives at Multiple Scales), provides this information at a resolution and quality unachieved by previous global data sets, such as HYDRO1k [ U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) , 2000].

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

An integrated framework for examining groundwater vulnerability in the Mekong River Delta region

The Mekong River provides water, food security, and many other valuable benefits to the more than 60 million Southeast Asian residents living within its basin. However, the Mekong River Basin is increasingly stressed by changes in climate, land cover, and infrastructure. These changes can affect water quantity and quality and exacerbate related hazards such as land subsidence and saltwater intrusion, resulting in multiple compounding risks for neighboring communities. In this study, we demonstrate the connection between climate change, groundwater availability, and social vulnerability by linking the results of a numerical groundwater model to land cover and socioeconomic data at the Cambodia-Vietnam border in the Mekong River Delta region. We simulated changes in groundwater availability across 20 years and identified areas of potential water stress based on domestic and agriculture-related freshwater demands. We then assessed adaptive capacity to understand how communities may be able to respond to this stress to better understand the growing risk of groundwater scarcity driven by climate change and overextraction. This study offers a novel approach for assessing risk of groundwater scarcity by linking the effects of climate change to the socioeconomic context in which they occur. Increasing our understanding of how changes in groundwater availability may affect local populations can help water managers better plan for the future, leading to more resilient communities.

PLoS ONE↗

Trends in the sediment yield of the Sacramento River, California, 1957-2001

Human activities within a watershed, such as agriculture, urbanization, and dam building, may affect the sediment yield from the watershed. Because the equilibrium geomorphic form of an estuary is dependent in part on the sediment supply from the watershed, anthropogenic activities within the watershed have the potential to affect estuary geomorphology. The Sacramento River drains the northern half of California’s Central Valley and is the primary source of sediment to San Francisco Bay. In this paper, it is shown that the delivery of suspended-sediment from the Sacramento River to San Francisco Bay has decreased by about one-half during the period 1957 to 2001. Many factors may be contributing to the trend in sediment yield, including the depletion of erodible sediment from hydraulic mining in the late 1800s, trapping of sediment in reservoirs, riverbank protection, altered land-uses (such as agriculture, grazing, urbanization, and logging), and levees. This finding has implications for planned tidal wetland restoration activities around San Francisco Bay, where an adequate sediment supply will be needed to build subsided areas to elevations typical of tidal wetlands as well as to keep pace with projected sea-level rise. In a broader context, the study underscores the need to address anthropogenic impacts on watershed sediment yield when considering actions such as restoration within downstream depositional areas.

California↗

Historic and forecasted population and land-cover change in eastern North Carolina, 1992-2030

The Southeast Regional Partnership for Planning and Sustainability (SERPPAS) was formed in 2005 as a partnership between the Department of Defense (DOD) and State and Federal agencies to promote better collaboration in making resource-use decisions. In support of this goal, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a study to evaluate historic population growth and land-cover change, and to model future change, for the 13-county SERPPAS study area in southeastern North Carolina (fig. 1). Improved understanding of trends in land-cover change and the ability to forecast land-cover change that is consistent with these trends will be a key component of efforts to accommodate local military-mission imperatives while also promoting sustainable economic growth throughout the 13-county study area. The study had three principal objectives: 1. Evaluate historic changes in population and land cover for the period 1992–2006 using both previously existing as well as newly generated land-cover data. 2. Develop models to forecast future change in land cover using the data gathered in objective 1 in conjunction with ancillary data on the suitability of the various sub-areas within the study area for low- and high-intensity urban development. 3. Deliver these results—including an executive-level briefing and a USGS technical report—to DOD, other project cooperators, and local counties in hard-copy and digital formats and via the Web through a map-based data viewer. This report provides a general overview of the study and is intended for general distribution to non-technical audiences.

North Carolina↗

Concentration, flux, and trend estimates with uncertainty for nutrients, chloride, and total suspended solids in tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990–2014

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission and the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, estimated daily and 9-month concentrations and fluxes of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids from 1990 (or first available date) through 2014 for 18 tributaries of Lake Champlain. Estimates of concentration and flux, provided separately in Medalie (2016), were made by using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) regression model and update previously published WRTDS model results with recent data. Assessment of progress towards meeting phosphorus-reduction goals outlined in the Lake Champlain management plan relies on annual estimates of phosphorus flux. The percent change in annual concentration and flux is provided for two time periods. The R package EGRETci was used to estimate the uncertainty of the trend estimate. Differences in model specification and function between this study and previous studies that used WRTDS to estimate concentration and flux using data from Lake Champlain tributaries are described. Winter data were too sparse and nonrepresentative to use for estimates of concentration and flux but were sufficient for estimating the percentage of total annual flux over the period of record. Median winter-to-annual fractions ranged between 21 percent for total suspended solids and 27 percent for dissolved phosphorus. The winter contribution was largest for all constituents from the Mettawee River and smallest from the Ausable River. For the full record (1991 through 2014 for total and dissolved phosphorus and chloride and 1993 through 2014 for nitrogen and total suspended solids), 6 tributaries had decreasing trends in concentrations of total phosphorus, and 12 had increasing trends; concentrations of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 6 and increased in 8 tributaries; fluxes of total phosphorus decreased in 5 and increased in 10 tributaries; and fluxes of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 4 and increased in 10 tributaries (where the number of increasing and decreasing trends does not add up to 18, the remainder of tributaries had no trends). Concentrations and fluxes of nitrogen decreased in 10 and increased in 4 tributaries and of chloride decreased in 2 and increased in 15 tributaries. Concentrations of total suspended solids decreased in 4 and increased in 8 tributaries, and fluxes of total suspended solids decreased in 3 and increased in 11 tributaries. Although time intervals for the percent changes from this report are not completely synchronous with those from previous studies, the numbers of and specific tributaries with overall negative percent changes in concentration and flux are similar. Concentration estimates of total phosphorus in the Winooski River were used to trace whether changes in trends between a previous study and the current study were due generally to differences in model specifications or differences from 4 years of additional data. The Winooski River analysis illustrates several things: that keeping all model specifications equal, concentration estimates increased from 2010 to 2014; the effects of a smoothing algorithm used in the current study that was not available previously; that narrowing model half-window widths increased year-to-year variations; and that the change from an annual to a 9-month basis by omitting winter estimates changed a few individual points but not the overall shape of the flow-normalized curve. Similar tests for other tributaries showed that the primary effect of differences in model specifications between the previous and current studies was perhaps to increase scatter over time but that changes in trends generally were the result of 4 years of additional data rather than artifacts of model differences.

New York, Vermont↗

Distribution and abundance of Aquila chrysaetos (golden eagles) in East Contra Costa County Habitat Conservation Plan/Natural Community Conservation Plan area, California

The East Contra Costa County Habitat Conservation Plan/Natural Community Conservation Plan (HCP/NCCP) Preserve System was designed to protect and enhance ecological diversity and function in eastern Contra Costa County, California. Aquila chrysaetos (golden eagle) is a special-status species expected to benefit from biological goals of the HCP/NCCP. As part of a broader study, we estimated site-occupancy, abundance, and reproduction of golden eagles in the HCP/NCCP inventory area in 2019. We completed 99 surveys and recorded a total of 50 detections of territorial pairs of eagles at 20 (67 percent) of 30 sites (13.9-square-kilometer [km 2 ] plots). Detection probability of territorial pairs was highest in January and February (≥0.75) and lowest in mid-June to late July (<0.50). After correcting for imperfect detection, the expected probability of site-occupancy was 0.69 (standard error [SE] = 0.09), and mean expected abundance was 0.76 pairs per site (SE = 0.16), or 27.4 pairs per 500 km 2 . We found evidence of successful nesting (≥1 young fledged) for 3 (14 percent) of 22 pairs of eagles monitored in 2019. Our study design and baseline results should be useful for future monitoring and conservation of golden eagles in the HCP/NCCP area.

California↗

A summary of water-quality and salt marsh monitoring, Humboldt Bay, California

This report summarizes data-collection activities associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Humboldt Bay Water-Quality and Salt Marsh Monitoring Project. This work was undertaken to gain a comprehensive understanding of water-quality conditions, salt marsh accretion processes, marsh-edge erosion, and soil-carbon storage in Humboldt Bay, California. Multiparameter sondes recorded water temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity at a 15-minute timestep at two U.S. Geological Survey water-quality stations: (1) Mad River Slough near Arcata, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 405219124085601) and (2) Hookton Slough near Loleta, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 404038124131801). At each station, discrete water samples were collected to develop surrogate regression models that were used to compute a continuous time series of suspended-sediment concentration from continuously measured turbidity. Data loggers recorded water depth at a 6-minute timestep in the primary tidal channels (Mad River Slough and Hookton Slough) in two adjacent marshes (Mad River marsh and Hookton marsh). The marsh monitoring network included five study marshes. Three marshes (Mad River, Manila, and Jacoby) are in the northern embayment of Humboldt Bay and two marshes (White and Hookton) are in the southern embayment. Surface deposition and elevation change were measured using deep rod surface elevation tables and feldspar marker horizons. Sediment characteristics and soil-carbon storage were measured using a total of 10 shallow cores, distributed across 5 study marshes, collected using an Eijkelkamp peat sampler. Rates of marsh edge erosion (2010–19) were quantified in four marshes (Mad River, Manila, Jacoby, and White) by estimating changes in the areal extent of the vegetated marsh plain using repeat aerial imagery and light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived elevation data. During the monitoring period (2016–19), the mean suspended-sediment concentration computed for Hookton Slough (50±20 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) was higher than Mad River Slough (18±7 mg/L). Uncertainty in mean suspended-sediment concentration values is reported using a 90-percent confidence interval. Across the five study marshes, elevation change (+1.8±0.6 millimeters per year [mm/yr]) and surface deposition (+2.5±0.5 mm/yr) were lower than published values of local sea-level rise (4.9±0.8 mm/yr), and mean carbon density was 0.029±0.005 grams of carbon per cubic centimeter. From 2010 to 2019, marsh edge erosion and soil carbon loss were greatest in low-elevation marshes with the marsh edge characterized by a gentle transition from mudflat to vegetated marsh (herein, ramped edge morphology) and larger wind-wave exposure. Jacoby Creek marsh experienced the greatest edge erosion. In total, marsh edge erosion was responsible for 62.3 metric tons of estuarine soil carbon storage loss across four study marshes. Salt marshes are an important component of coastal carbon, which is frequently referred to as “blue carbon.” The monitoring data presented in this report provide fundamental information needed to manage blue carbon stocks, assess marsh vulnerability, inform sea-level rise adaptation planning, and build coastal resiliency to climate change.

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Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

Scientific Investigations Report↗