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USGS2021

Historic population estimates for bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Aragua, Venezuela indicate monitoring need

This study reports historic capture-mark-recapture survival and abundance estimates of common bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) based on photo-identification surveys of coastal Venezuela (along the Aragua coast between Turiamo Bay and Puerto Colombia). We used the most recent data available: dolphins identified by unique dorsal fin marks during wet and dry season surveys conducted from 2004 to 2008. Dolphin encounter histories were analyzed in the Closed Capture Robust Design framework, with the top model including random movement, constant survival, and capture-recapture probabilities that varied by secondary periods. Survival of marked adults was estimated at 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97 to 1.00). Population estimates for all adults (marked and unmarked) averaged 31 animals (SD = 13.8), and for all dolphins (all adults and calves), 41 animals (SD = 17.2). Coastal bottlenose dolphins face numerous threats, including ship strikes, oil spills, conflict with recreational and industrial fisheries, other negative human interactions, biotoxins, chemicals, noise, freshwater discharge, and coastal development. Further, small populations are, in general, at increased risk due to reduced resiliency and recovery potential when exposed to such threats and to expected environmental and demographic stochasticity. These historic estimates of abundance and survival are critical for establishing a reference state and indicate a need for ongoing monitoring of the small dolphin population while the Aragua coast is still, as of yet, relatively little impacted by humans. Should coastal development increase (as is the global trend) and/or environmental catastrophes (e.g., harmful algal blooms, hurricanes, and oil spills) occur, these historic estimates will be essential for assessing impacts and guiding management and conservation interventions. Our results show year-round dolphin presence and highlight the Venezuelan coastal–oceanic landscape as an area of both future research and conservation importance.

Aragua↗

USGS2010

Initial Results from a Study of Climatic Changes and the Effect on Wild Sheep Habitat in Selected Study Areas of Alaska

Climate change theorists have projected striking changes in local weather on earth due to increases in temperature. These predicted changes may cause melting glaciers and ice caps, rising sea levels, increasing desertification and other environmental changes which seem likely to affect presumed indicator species as harbingers of more significant changes. Wild sheep, even though they are one of the more successful mammalian taxa since Pleistocene times, exhibit a suite of adaptations to glacier driven environments which may be presumed to render them sensitive to environmental changes. The authors began investigation with these assumptions by comparing changes, as determined by satellite imagery, in glacier extent in our study areas in Denali National Park, Alaska, during the last 30 years. Our findings showed the extent of glacial retreat in Alaska during this time period was approximately 40-50 percent as measured by ablation zone and retreat of terminal moraines. During the first half of this 30-year period, Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) populations were stable at historically recorded highs. In the early to mid-1990s, Dall sheep populations in Alaska declined from an historical estimated high of 75,000 sheep to the presently estimated 40-50,000. The declines seemed to be weather related, on the basis of the presumption that lamb survival rates are primarily weather-mediated in Alaska. Changes in local weather appear, at this point, to be correlated with oscillation in the Pacific Current in the Northern Pacific ocean. Of course, changes in local weather affect forage abundance and quality seasonally. In investigating a possible linkage of weather to seasonal forage abundance and quality, we also investigated changes in snow and ice extent and distribution, as well as increased water runoff associated with permafrost and depleted glaciers. Databases were assembled from a wide variety of remotely sensed satellite data, ground-based observations, and historical data bases relating to Dall sheep habitats in selected study areas. Alaska's sheep habitats are typified by long, narrow bands of mountainous uplifts generally arrayed west-to-east, and perpendicular to prevailing south-to-north weather-front movements. Classic Dall sheep habitat occurs on snow-shadowed slopes within these narrow mountainous habitats. On the basis of these data, we offer an explanatory hypothesis relating Dall sheep welfare to weather and climate-influenced nutrition and a monitoring scheme, which should produce data sufficient to test the robustness of this hypothesis. If correlated with population changes, the methods used in our comparative observations may provide long-term monitoring tools for wildlife managers and be applicable in other widely-dispersed wild sheep habitats. If no significant correlations emerge from our modeling exercises, the notion that wild sheep are a sufficiently sensitive species to be seen as an indicator species will have to be reexamined.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Assessment of channel morphology, hydraulics, and bedload transport along the Siletz River, western Oregon

Significant Findings Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) are native, anadromous fish species in the Siletz River Basin, western Oregon, that face many threats to their survival in freshwater and the ocean. The Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians of Oregon seek to mitigate freshwater threats to Chinook salmon and Pacific lamprey, where possible, with habitat conservation and restoration efforts. This study was conducted to assist the Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians of Oregon in documenting and understanding the hydrogeomorphic processes shaping present-day habitat conditions and assessing future habitat implications for Chinook salmon and Pacific lamprey along the main-stem Siletz River. As such, this study focused on understanding geomorphic processes and patterns of channel change, including lateral and vertical adjustments in channel position and changes in bed-material sediment (sands, gravels, and cobbles that mantle the channel bed), which collectively determine overall patterns of channel morphology and fluvial habitats. Objective One was to evaluate lateral changes in channel position, vertical changes in bed elevation, and longitudinal patterns in bed-material particle size along the Siletz River using detailed channel maps developed from aerial photographs collected from 1939 to 2016, long-term records of stage and discharge collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) near the City of Siletz, and sediment particle size data. Objective Two was to assess hydraulic conditions using one- and two-dimensional hydraulic models and transport capacity of bed-material sediment using bedload transport models and sediment particle size data for a range of discharge conditions. Objective Three was to identify potential burrowing habitat for lamprey larvae (PBH) along the Siletz River network and provide insights in local factors influencing PBH along the main-stem Siletz River. The overall findings are synthesized to describe habitat implications for Chinook salmon and Pacific lamprey under present-day and future conditions. Results of Objective One, an evaluation of changes in channel position and bed elevations and longitudinal patterns in bed-material particle size along the Siletz River, include the following From 1939 to 2016, channel planform and the mapped area of gravel bars did not change considerably along the 97.2-kilometers (km) of Siletz River between Elk Creek and Millport Slough, except for in short sections generally less than 1 km long. This inherent lateral channel stability results from the resistant bedrock and terraces that bound most of the channel and limit lateral changes in channel position. Intermittent sections along the study reach where the active channel widened at channel bends displayed noticeable planform changes and increases in mapped bar area. From water year (WY; a 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and named for the year in which it ends) 1906 to 2021, changes in the stage-discharge relation interpreted as rising and lowering channel bed levels were observed at the USGS streamgage 14305500 (Siletz River at Siletz, OR) in response to floods (such as high flows in February 1996 and January 2002 that exceeded 0.1 and 0.667 annual exceedance probabilities [AEP] events, respectively). However, the rating curve representing the stage-discharge relation did not change in response to high-magnitude floods between 2007 and 2021. Along the approximately 54-km of the Siletz River between Moonshine Park and the Bulls Bag area, surficial particle distributions varied considerably between sampling sites in response to changes in channel width and gradient, sediment inputs from tributaries, and basin geology. Despite this variability, median particle sizes tended to decrease in size in the downstream direction over the 54 km. Results of Objective Two, an evaluation of hydraulic and bedload transport conditions along the Siletz River, include the following The most substantial increases in maximum and mean water velocity and bedload sediment transport capacity occurred at events between the 0.995 and 0.50 AEPs. Events of these magnitudes occur approximately every 1–2 years. Smaller events (0.995 AEP) are generally contained by the banks of the main channel, whereas larger events (0.50 AEP) generally spill over the banks and inundate high-elevation bar and low-elevation floodplain surfaces. Multiple smaller floods within a WY that exceed the 0.995 and 0.50 AEPs (such as in WY 1996) can transport as much or more bed-material sediment than a single, higher magnitude event (such as the maximum event recorded in WY 2000 with an estimated AEP of around 0.002). Bedload transport capacity generally exceeds sediment supply (greater than 2 millimeters [mm]) for most of the study area from Wildcat Creek to the City of Siletz as evidenced by substantial in-channel bedrock. Despite overall conditions of limited sediment supply, transport capacity still varies considerably within and between years with discharge magnitude and spatially in relation to local hydraulics imposed by bedrock, channel morphology, and human infrastructure (such as bridges). Results of Objective Three, an analysis of PBH for lamprey larvae, include the following About 28 percent of the Siletz River network meets the mean annual suspended sediment loads and channel slope criteria for PBH. Along the main-stem Siletz River, in-channel bedrock outcrops and high transport capacity are expected to further constrain PBH. Together, these results suggest that most of the Siletz River between Wildcat Creek and the City of Siletz has had only modest vertical and lateral change between the 1930s and 2010s because of the bedrock in and along the main channel and the river’s relatively high transport capacity relative to bed-material sediment supply. However, localized sections of the Siletz River where the active channel widens, particularly at channel bends, exhibited some change in channel planform and the locations and area of gravel bars. In the future, moderate increases in autumn-winter discharge may not result in substantial changes in coarse gravel bars along the Siletz River but may result in selective transport of finer bed-material sediment (gravel, sands, and silts) that provide spawning habitats for Chinook salmon and Pacific lamprey and burrowing habitats for lamprey larvae. Assuming no substantial changes in bed-material sediment supply, increased bedload transport capacity may cause frequent entrainment of lamprey larvae that are burrowed in coarse sand deposits, suspension and downstream transport of salmon eggs incubating in gravels, and reductions in the areas of spawning gravels for Chinook salmon and Pacific lamprey. Exact implications of current and future discharge conditions for these species along the Siletz River depends on many factors, including sediment supply, local hydraulics, and the timing of flood events relative to fish life stages.

Oregon↗

USGS1993

Allostratigraphy of the U.S. middle Atlantic continental margin; characteristics, distribution, and depositional history of principal unconformity-bounded upper Cretaceous and Cenozoic sedimentary units

Publication of Volumes 93 and 95 ('The New Jersey Transect') of the Deep Sea Drilling Project's Initial Reports completed a major phase of geological and geophysical research along the middle segment of the U. S. Atlantic continental margin. Relying heavily on data from these and related published records, we have integrated outcrop, borehole, and seismic-reflection data from this large area (500,000 km^2 ) to define the regional allostratigraphic framework for Upper Cretaceous and Cenozoic sedimentary rocks. The framework consists of 12 alloformations, which record the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic depositional history of the contiguous Baltimore Canyon trough (including its onshore margin) and Hatteras basin (northern part). We propose stratotype sections for each alloformation and present a regional allostratigraphic reference section, which crosses these basins from the inner edge of the coastal plain to the inner edge of the abyssal plain. Selected supplementary reference sections on the coastal plain allow observation of the alloformations and their bounding unconformities in outcrop. Our analyses show that sediment supply and its initial dispersal on the middle segment of the U. S. Atlantic margin have been governed, in large part, by hinterland tectonism and subsequently have been modified by paleoclimate, sea-level changes, and oceanic current systems. Notable events in the Late Cretaceous to Holocene sedimentary evolution of this margin include (1) development of continental-rise depocenters in the northern part of the Hatteras basin during the Late Cretaceous; (2) the appear ance of a dual shelf-edge system, a marked decline in siliciclastic sediment accumulation rates, and widespread acceleration of carbonate production during high sea levels of the Paleogene; (3) rapid deposition and progradation of thick terrigenous delta complexes and development of abyssal depocenters during the middle Miocene to Quaternary interval; and (4) deep incision of the shelf edge by submarine canyons, especially during the Pleistocene. Massive downslope gravity flows have dominated both the depositional and erosional history of the middle segment of the U. S. Atlantic Continental Slope and Rise during most of the last 84 million years. The importance of periodic widespread erosion is recorded by well-documented unconformities, many of which can be traced from coastal-plain outcrops to coreholes on the continental slope and lower continental rise. These unconformities form the boundaries of the 12 allostratigraphic units we formally propose herein. Seven of the unconformities correlate with supercycle boundaries (sequence boundaries) that characterize the Exxon sequence-stratigraphy model.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2024

Large eddy simulation of cross-shore hydrodynamics under random waves in the inner surf and swash zones

A 3D large eddy simulation coupled with a free surface tracking scheme was used to simulate cross-shore hydrodynamics as observed in a large wave flume experiment. The primary objective was to enhance the understanding of wave-backwash interactions and the implications for observed morphodynamics. Two simulation cases were carried out to elucidate key processes of wave-backwash interactions across two distinct stages: berm erosion and sandbar formation, during the early portion of a modeled storm. The major difference between the two cases was the bathymetry: one featuring a berm without a sandbar (Case I), and the other, featuring a sandbar without a berm (Case II) at similar water depth. Good agreement (overall Willmott's index of agreement greater than 0.8) between simulations and measured data in free surface elevation, wave spectrum, and flow velocities validated the model skill. The findings indicated that the bottom shear stress, represented by the Shields parameter, was significant in both cases, potentially contributing substantial sediment transport. Notably, the occurrence of intense wave-backwash interactions were more frequent in the absence of a sandbar. These intense wave-backwash interactions resulted in a pronounced horizontal pressure gradient, quantified by high Sleath parameters, exceeding the criteria for momentary bed failure. Additionally, a more vigorous turbulence-bed interaction, characterized by near-bed turbulent kinetic energy, was observed in the case lacking a sandbar, potentially augmenting sediment suspension. These insights are pivotal in understanding the mechanisms underlying berm erosion and how sandbar formation serves to protect further beach erosion.

JGR Oceans↗

USGS2011

The dynamics of fine-grain sediment dredged from Santa Cruz Harbor

In the fall and early winter of 2009, a demonstration project was done at Santa Cruz Harbor, California, to determine if 450 m 3 /day of predominantly (71 percent) mud-sized sediment could be dredged from the inner portion of the harbor and discharged to the coastal ocean without significant impacts to the beach and inner shelf. During the project, more than 7600 m 3 of sediment (~5400 m 3 of fine-grain material) was dredged during 17 days and discharged approximately 60 m offshore of the harbor at a depth of 2 m on the inner shelf. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center was funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Santa Cruz Port District to do an integrated mapping and process study to investigate the fate of the mud-sized sediment dredged from the inner portion of Santa Cruz Harbor and to determine if any of the fine-grain material settled out on the shoreline and/or inner shelf during the fall and early winter of 2009. This was done by collecting high resolution oceanographic and sediment geochemical measurements along the shoreline and on the continental shelf of northern Monterey Bay to monitor the fine-grain sediment dredged from Santa Cruz Harbor and discharged onto the inner shelf. These in place measurements, in conjunction with beach, water column, and seabed surveys, were used as boundary and calibration information for a three-dimensional numerical circulation and sediment dynamics model to better understand the fate of the fine-grain sediment dredged from Santa Cruz Harbor and the potential consequences of disposing this type of material on the beach and on the northern Monterey Bay continental shelf.

California↗

USGS2009

Offshore double-planed shallow seismic zone in the NE Japan forearc region revealed by sP depth phases recorded by regional networks

We detected the sP depth phase at small epicentral distances of about 150 km or more in the seismograms of shallow earthquakes in the NE Japan forearc region. The focal depths of 1078 M > 3 earthquakes that occurred from 2000 to 2006 were precisely determined using the time delay of the sP phase from the initial P-wave arrival. The distribution of relocated hypocentres clearly shows the configuration of a double-planed shallow seismic zone beneath the Pacific Ocean. The upper plane has a low dip angle near the Japan Trench, increasing gradually to ???30?? at approximately 100 km landward of the Japan Trench. The lower plane is approximately parallel to the upper plane, and appears to be the near-trench counterpart of the lower plane of the double-planed deep seismic zone beneath the land area. The distance between the upper and lower planes is 28-32 km, which is approximately the same as or slightly smaller than that of the double-planed deep seismic zone beneath the land area. Focal mechanism solutions of the relocated earthquakes are determined from P-wave initial motion data. Although P-wave initial motion data for these offshore events are not ideally distributed on the focal sphere, we found that the upper-plane events that occur near the Japan Trench are characterized by normal faulting, whereas lower-plane events are characterized by thrust faulting. This focal mechanism distribution is the opposite to that of the double-planed deep seismic zone beneath the land area. The characteristics of these focal mechanisms for the shallow and deep doubled-planed seismic zones can be explained by a bending-unbending model of the subducting Pacific plate. Some of relocated earthquakes took place in the source area of the 1933 Mw8.4 Sanriku earthquake at depths of 10-23 km. The available focal mechanisms for these events are characterized by normal faulting. Given that the 1933 event was a large normal-fault event that occurred along a fault plane dipping landward, the earthquakes that currently occur just beneath or oceanwards of the Japan Trench are probably its aftershocks, suggesting that aftershock activity continues to the present day, 70 years after the main shock. ?? 2009 The Authors, Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2006

Foraging destinations and marine habitat use of short-tailed albatrosses: A multi-scale approach using first-passage time analysis

We used satellite telemetry, remotely sensed data (bathymetry, chlorophyll a (chl a), sea-surface temperature (SST), wind speed) and first-passage time (FPT) analysis to determine the distribution, movement patterns, and habitat associations of short-tailed albatrosses (Phoebastria albatrus) during the non-breeding season, 2002 and 2003. Satellite transmitters were deployed on birds immediately prior to their departure from a breeding colony at Torishima, Japan (n = 11), or at-sea in the Aleutian Islands (n = 3). Tracking durations ranged from 51 to 138 days for a total of 6709 locations after filtering (131 - 808 per bird). FPT (time required to transit a circle of given radius) revealed the location and spatial scale of area-restricted search (ARS) patterns along flight paths. On average, ARS occurred within 70 km radii. Consequently, the fit of the habitat use models increased at spatial scales beyond a 40 km FPT radius (R2 = 0.31) and stabilized for scales of 70 km and larger (R2=0.40- 0.51). At all scales, wind speed, depth or depth gradient, and chl a or chl a gradient had a significant effect on FPT (i.e., residence time). FPT increased within regions of higher gradients of depth and chl a. In contrast, FPT decreased within regions of greater depth and wind speed, with a significant interaction of wind speed and depth at some scales. Sea-surface temperature or its interactions were only significant at large spatial scales (???160 km FPT radius). Albatrosses engaged in ARS activities primarily over the shelf break and slope, including Kuroshio and Oyashio regions off the western subarctic gyre. Occasionally, birds transited the northern boundary of the Kuroshio Extension while in-route to the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea, but overall spent little time in the western gyre. In the Aleutian Islands, ARS occurred within straits, particularly along the central and western part of the archipelago. In the Bering Sea, ARS occurred along the northern continental shelf break, the Kamchatka Current region, and east of the Commander Islands. Non-breeding short-tailed albatross concentrate foraging in oceanic areas characterized by gradients in topography and water column productivity. This study provides an understanding of the foraging ecology for a highly migratory, imperiled seabird, and confirms the importance of shelf break and slope regions as hot spots for a variety of top marine predators in the North Pacific.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗

USGS2010

Nitrogen Loads in Groundwater Entering Back Bays and Ocean from Fire Island National Seashore, Long Island, New York

Fire Island is a barrier island that lies south of central Long Island, N.Y. It is about 60 km (37 mi) long and 0.5 km (1/4 mi) wide and is bounded by the Great South Bay, Narrow Bay, and Moriches Bay estuaries to the north; by the Atlantic Ocean to the south; by Fire Island Inlet to the west; and by Moriches Inlet to the east (fig. 1). Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS) encompasses a 42-km (26-mi) length of Fire Island that is bordered by Robert Moses State Park to the west and Smith Point County Park to the east (fig. 2). Interspersed throughout FIIS are 17 residential beach communities that together contain about 4,100 homes. The barrier island's summer population increases 50-fold through the arrival of summer residents and vacationers. The National Park Service (NPS) has established several facilities on the island to accommodate visitors to FIIS. About 2.2 million people visit at least one of the 17 communities and (or) Smith Point County Park, the waterways surrounding Fire Island, or a FIIS facility annually (National Park Service, 2007). Combined visitation on a peak-season weekend day can be as high as 100,000 (National Park Service, 2002). Most homes and businesses in the 17 barrier-island communities discharge untreated wastewater directly to the shallow (water-table) aquifer through private septic systems and cesspools; the NPS facilities discharge wastewater to this aquifer through leach fields and cesspools. (The community of Ocean Beach (fig. 2) has a treatment plant that discharges to tidewater.) Contaminants in sewage entering the shallow groundwater move through the flow system and are ultimately discharged to adjacent marine surface waters, where they can pose a threat to coastal habitats. A contaminant of major concern is nitrogen, which is derived from fertilizers and human waste. The continuous inflow of nitrogen to surface-water bodies can lead to increased production of phytoplankton and macroalgae, which in turn can cause oxygen depletion, decreases in size of estuarine fish and shellfish communities, and loss of submerged seagrass habitat through light limitation (Valiela and others, 1992). The FIIS boundary extends roughly 1.2 km (0.8 mi) into the back-barrier estuaries of Great South Bay, Narrow Bay, and Moriches Bay (fig. 1). Within this estuarine zone are extensive areas of seagrass, shellfish, and finfish habitat, as well as intense recreational activity (Bokuniewicz and others, 1993). Management strategies for protection of these habitats require data on (1) concentrations and movement of nutrients and other human-derived contaminants that enter the groundwater system from on-site septic systems, and (2) aquifer characteristics and groundwater flow patterns. These data can then be used in three-dimensional flow models of the shallow aquifer system to predict the rates of groundwater discharge to the marine surface waters that bound Fire Island and the concentrations of nitrogen entering these water bodies from the aquifer's discharge zones. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the NPS, began a 3-year investigation to (1) measure groundwater levels within four local study areas at FIIS, (2) collect groundwater samples from these areas for nutrient (nitrogen) analysis, (3) develop a three-dimensional model of the hydrologic system and adjacent saltwater bodies for groundwater-flow delineation and particle tracking, and (4) apply the results of groundwater-discharge simulations to calculate the annual nitrogen loads in these discharges, particularly those entering Great South Bay, which together with the other back bays receives an estimated 80 percent of the total groundwater discharge from Fire Island. The four areas on which the investigation focused were the communities of Kismet and Robbins Rest, the NPS Visitor Center at Watch Hill, and the undeveloped Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness (shown in panels A, B, C, and D in fig. 2); these were

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Snow and ice

Temperature and precipitation are key determinants of snowpack levels. Therefore, climate change is likely to affect the role of snow and ice in the landscapes and hydrology of the Chugach National Forest region. Downscaled climate projections developed by Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) are useful for examining projected changes in snow at relatively fine resolution using a variable called “snowday fraction (SDF),” the percentage of days with precipitation falling as snow. We summarized SNAP monthly SDF from five different global climate models for the Chugach region by 500 m elevation bands, and compared historical (1971–2000) and future (2030–2059) SDF. We found that: Snow-day fraction and snow-water equivalent (SWE) are projected to decline most in late autumn (October to November) and at lower elevations. Snow-day fraction is projected to decrease 23 percent (averaged across five climate models) from October to March, between sea level and 500 m. Between sea level and 1000 m, SDF is projected to decrease by 17 percent between October and March. Snow-water equivalent is projected to decrease most in autumn (October and November) and at lower elevations (below 1500 m), an average of -26 percent for the 2030–2059 period compared to 1971– 2000. Averaged across the cool season and the entire domain, SWE is projected to decrease at elevations below 1000 m because of increased temperature, but increase at higher elevations because of increased precipitation. Compared to 1971–2000, the percentage of the landscape that is snowdominant in 2030–2059 is projected to decrease, and the percentage in which rain and snow are co-dominant (transient hydrology) is projected to increase from 27 to 37 percent. Most of this change is at lower elevations. Glaciers on the Chugach National Forest are currently losing about 6 km3 of ice per year; half of this loss comes from Columbia Glacier (Berthier et al. 2010). Over the past decade, almost all glaciers surveyed within the Chugach have lost mass (with one exception), including glaciers that have advancing termini (Larsen et al. 2015). Glaciers that are not calving into the ocean are typically thinning by 3 m/year at their termini (Larsen et al. 2015). In the future, glaciers not calving into the ocean will retreat and shrink at rates equivalent to or higher than current rates of ice loss (Larsen et al. 2015). Columbia Glacier will likely retreat another 15 km and break into multiple tributaries over the next 20 years before stabilizing. Other tidewater glaciers have uncertain futures, but likely will not advance significantly in coming decades. These impacts will likely affect recreation and tourism through changes in reliable snowpack and access to recreation and viewsheds.

Alaska↗

USGS1999

Stabilization of volcanic flanks by dike intrusion: An example from Kilauea

Dike propagation and dilation increases the compression of adjacent rocks. On volcanoes, especially oceanic shields, dikes are accordingly thought to be structurally destabilizing. As compression is incremented, volcanic flanks are driven outward or downslope and thus increase their susceptibility to destructive earthquakes and giant landslides. We show, however, that the 2-m-thick dike emplaced along the east rift zone of Kilauea in 1983 actually stabilized that volcano's flank. Specifically, production of flank earthquakes dropped more than twofold after 1983 as maximum downslope motion slowed to 6 cm ?? year-1 from approximately 40 cm ?? year-1 during 1980-1982. As much as 65 cm of deflationary subsidence above Kilauea's summit and upper rift zones accompanied the dike intrusion. According to recent estimates, this deflation corresponds to a reduction in magma-reservoir pressure of approximately 4 MPa, probably about as much as the driving pressure of the 1983 dike. The volume of the dike, approximately 0.10-0.15 km3, is orders of magnitude less than the estimated 200- to 250-km3 volume of Kilauea's reservoir of magma and nearby hot, mushy rock. Thus, deflation of that reservoir reduces the compressional load on the flank over a much larger area than intrusion of the dike adds to it, particularly at the dominant depth of seismicity, 8-9 km. A Coulomb block model for flank motion during intervals between major earthquakes requires the low-angle fault beneath Kilauea's flank to exhibit slip weakening, conducive to earthquake instability. Accordingly, the triggering mechanism of destructive earthquakes, several of which have struck Hawaii during the past 150 years, need not require stresses accumulated by dike intrusions.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2026

Metal induced chitinozoan malformations link the Mid-Ludfordian OAE to the venting of metalliferous hydrothermal basin brines into the Silurian Ocean

The mechanisms driving Silurian Ocean Anoxic Events (OAEs) and their impact on marine biota remain poorly understood. Previous studies linked chitinozoan (fossil zooplankton) malformations to heavy metal toxicity under expanding reducing oceanic conditions during the onset of some of these events. Importantly, these malformations represent in vivo reactions to changing paleoenvironmental stress and may serve as a sensitive indicator of marine metal loading and the geochemical processes driving Silurian extinction events. In the current study this hypothesis is tested for the prominent Mid- Ludfordian (upper Silurian) OAE. The onset of the event is examined using the thick and well preserved stratigraphic records in outcrop at Bodudd 1 (Gotland, Sweden). A bed-by-bed collection of 101 samples were analyzed for their whole rock geochemistry with chitinozoan malformations quantified in 66 samples. A total of 587.241 specimens were counted with 133 confirmed malformations and 87 potentially malformed, occurring in two intervals that correlate with Mn enrichments. Notably, malformations appear in the lowermost sample in the section, below the carbon isotope excursion, indicating that biotic stress preceded perturbations to the global carbon cycle. In addition to Mn, anomalies in Zn and Pb are present, alongside minor enrichments in Hg, Co, and Sb. The stratigraphic position of metal anomalies corresponds with an extraordinarily rapid rise in marine Sr isotope compositions. The pulsed nature of trace metal enrichments, the distinct elemental suite, and diagnostic spikes in radiogenic 87 Sr/ 86 Sr support the emerging model that episodic venting of metalliferous hydrothermal brines was the primary trigger for this and other Silurian OAEs.

Gotland↗

USGS2012

Seasat synthetic aperture radar ( SAR) response to lowland vegetation types in eastern Maryland and Virginia

Examination of SEASAT SAR images of eastern Maryland and Virginia reveals botanical distinctions between vegetated lowland areas and adjacent upland areas. Radar returns from the lowland areas can be either brighter or darker than returns from the upland forests. Scattering models and scatterometer measurements predict an increase of 6 dB in backscatter from vegetation over standing water. This agrees with the SCWigital number (DN) increase observed in the digital SEASAT data. The brightest areas in the Chickahominy, Virginia, drainage, containing P. virginica about 0.4 m high, contrast with the brightest areas in the Blackwater, Maryland, marshes, which contain mature loblolly pine in standing water. The darkest vegetated area in the Chickahominy drainage contains a forest of Nyssa aquatica (water tupelo) about 18 m high, while the darkest vegetated area in the Blackwater marshes contains the marsh plant Spartina alterniflora, 0.3 m high. The density, morphology, and relative geometry of the lowland vegetation with respect to standing water can all affect the strength of the return L band signal.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans↗

USGS2008

Application of Wind Fetch and Wave Models for Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects

Models based upon coastal engineering equations have been developed to quantify wind fetch length and several physical wave characteristics including significant height, length, peak period, maximum orbital velocity, and shear stress. These models, developed using Environmental Systems Research Institute's ArcGIS 9.2 Geographic Information System platform, were used to quantify differences in proposed island construction designs for three Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects (HREPs) in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers St. Paul District (Capoli Slough and Harpers Slough) and St. Louis District (Swan Lake). Weighted wind fetch was calculated using land cover data supplied by the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) for each island design scenario for all three HREPs. Figures and graphs were created to depict the results of this analysis. The difference in weighted wind fetch from existing conditions to each potential future island design was calculated for Capoli and Harpers Slough HREPs. A simplistic method for calculating sediment suspension probability was also applied to the HREPs in the St. Paul District. This analysis involved determining the percentage of days that maximum orbital wave velocity calculated over the growing seasons of 2002-2007 exceeded a threshold value taken from the literature where fine unconsolidated sediments may become suspended. This analysis also evaluated the difference in sediment suspension probability from existing conditions to the potential island designs. Bathymetric data used in the analysis were collected from the LTRMP and wind direction and magnitude data were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Oregon OCS seafloor mapping: Selected lease blocks relevant to renewable energy

In 2014 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) entered into Intra-agency agreement M13PG00037 to map an area of the Oregon Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) off of Coos Bay, Oregon, under consideration for development of a floating wind energy farm. The BOEM requires seafloor mapping and site characterization studies in order to evaluate the impact of seafloor and sub-seafloor conditions on the installation, operation, and structural integrity of proposed renewable energy projects, as well as to assess the potential effects of construction and operations on archaeological resources. The mission of the USGS is to provide geologic, topographic, and hydrologic information that contributes to the wise management of the Nation's natural resources and that promotes the health, safety, and well being of the people. This information consists of maps, databases, and descriptions and analyses of the water, energy, and mineral resources, land surface, underlying geologic structure, and dynamic processes of the earth. For the Oregon OCS study, the USGS acquired multibeam echo sounder and seafloor video data surrounding the proposed development site, which is 95 km2 in area and 15 miles offshore from Coos Bay. The development site had been surveyed by Solmar Hydro Inc. in 2013 under a contract with WindFloat Pacific. The USGS subsequently produced a bathymetry digital elevation model and a backscatter intensity grid that were merged with existing data collected by the contractor. The merged grids were published along with visual observations of benthic geo-habitat from the video data in an associated USGS data release (Cochrane and others, 2015). This report includes the results of analysis of the video data conducted by Oregon State University and the geo-habitat interpretation of the multibeam echo sounder (MBES) data conducted by the USGS. MBES data was published in Cochrane and others (2015). Interpretive data associated with this publication is published in Cochrane (2017). All the data is provided as geographic information system (GIS) files that contain both Esri ArcGIS geotiffs or shapefiles. For those who do not own the full suite of Esri GIS and mapping software, the data can be read using Esri ArcReader, a free viewer that is available at http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcreader/index.html (last accessed August 29, 2016). Web services, which consist of standard implementations of ArcGIS representational state transfer (REST) Service and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) GIS web map service (WMS), also are available for all published GIS data. Web services were created using an ArcGIS service definition file, resulting in data layers that are symbolized as shown on the associated report figures. Both the ArcGIS REST Service and OGC WMS Service include all the individual GIS layers. Data layers are bundled together in a map-area web service; however, each layer can be symbolized and accessed individually after the web service is ingested into a desktop application or web map. Web services enable users to download and view data, as well as to easily add data to their own workflows, using any browser-enabled, standalone or mobile device. Though the surficial substrate is dominated by combinations of mud and sand substrate, a diverse assortment of geomorphologic features are related to geologic processes—one anticlinal ridge where bedrock is exposed, a slump and associated scarps, and pockmarks. Pockmarks are seen in the form of fields of small pockmarks, a lineation of large pockmarks with methanogenic carbonates, and areas of large pockmarks that have merged into larger variously shaped depressions. The slump appears to have originated at the pockmark lineation. Video-supervised numerical analysis of the MBES backscatter intensity data and vector ruggedness derived from the MBES bathymetry data was used to produce a substrate model called a seafloor character raster for the study area. The seafloor character raster consists of three substrate classes: soft-flat areas, hard-flat areas, and hard-rugged areas. A Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) geoform and substrate map was also produced using depth, slope, and benthic position index classes to delineate geoform boundaries. Seven geoforms were identified in this process, including ridges, slump scars, slump deposits, basins, and pockmarks. Statistical analysis of the video data for correlations between substrate, depth, and invertebrate assemblages resulted in the identification of seven biomes: three hard-bottom biomes and four softbottom biomes. A similar analysis of vertebrate observations produces a similar set of biomes. The biome between-group dissimilarity was very high or high. Invertebrates alone represent most of the structure of the whole benthic community into different assemblages. A biotope map was generated using the seafloor character raster and the substrate and depth values of the biomes. Hard substrate biotopes were small in size and were located primarily on the ridge and in pockmarks along the pockmark lineation. The soft-bottom bitopes consisted of large contiguous areas delimited by isobaths.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1997

Organic carbon balance and net ecosystem metabolism in Chesapeake Bay

The major fluxes of organic carbon associated with physical transport and biological metabolism were compiled, analyzed and compared for the mainstem portion of Chesapeake Bay (USA). In addition, 5 independent methods were used to calculate the annual mean net ecosystem metabolism (NEM = production - respiration) for the integrated Bay. These methods, which employed biogeochemical models, nutrient mass-balances anti summation of individual organic carbon fluxes, yielded remarkably similar estimates, with a mean NEM of +50 g C m-2 yr-1 (?? SE = 751, which is approximately 8% of the estimated annual average gross primary production. These calculations suggest a strong cross-sectional pattern in NEM throughout the Bay, wherein net heterotrophic metabolism prevails in the pelagic zones of the main channel, while net autotrophy occurs in the littoral zones which flank the deeper central area. For computational purposes, the estuary was separated into 3 regions along the land-sea gradient: (1) the oligohaline Upper Bay (11% of total area); (2) the mesohaline Mid Bay (36% of area); and (3) the polyhaline Lower Bay (53% of area). A distinct regional trend in NEM was observed along this salinity gradient, with net here(atrophy (NEM = 87 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Upper Bay, balanced metabolism in the Mid Bay and net autotrophy (NEM = +92 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Lower Bay. As a consequence of overall net autotrophy, the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to total organic nitrogen (TON) changed from DIN:TON = 5.1 for riverine inputs to DIN:TON = 0.04 for water exported to the ocean. A striking feature of this organic C mass-balance was the relative dominance of biologically mediated metabolic fluxes compared to physical transport fluxes. The overall ratio of physical TOC inputs (1) to biotic primary production (P) was 0.08 for the whole estuary, but varied dramatically from 2.3 in the Upper Bay to 0.03 in the Mid and Lower Bay regions. Similarly, ecosystem respiration was some 6-fold higher than the sum of all physical carbon sinks. This general negative correspondence between I:P ratio and NEM, which occurred among Bay regions, was also evident in data available for organic C fluxes in other coastal ecosystems. An inverse relationship between NEM and P, postulated in a previous study, did not apply to Chesapeake Bay, and closer examination of available data revealed the importance of the loading ratio of DIN:TOC as a key control on coastal NEM. It is proposed here that the general global trend of coastal eutrophication will lead to increasing values of NEM in estuaries worldwide. The management implications of this trend are complex, involving both increased potential fisheries harvest and decreased demersal habitat.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS1991

A comparison of Sr-Nd-Pb isotopes in young and old continental lithospheric mantle: Patagonia and eastern China

It is commonly accepted that beneath the continental crust lies a keel of lithospheric mantle, which extends 50–200 kilometres downward to a transition zone into the asthenosphere. The chemical and physical properties of this reservoir are best known through studies of the basalts and xenoliths that provide samples of the subcrustal mantle. Although sharing many characteristics with oceanic island basalts, some continental basalts become increasingly distinct isotopically as crustal age increases, strongly supporting a permanent association between crust and mantle. Consequently, the distinctive trace element and isotope composition of the lithospheric mantle is able to give important clues to its origin and evolution. The mantle under newly‐created crust is typified by a radiogenic isotope variability that emphasizes the materials from which the continental lithosphere is assembled. Old lithospheric mantle, on the other hand, exhibits more evolved isotopic patterns that attest to the existence of long‐lived, chemically complex systems. A comparison of the Pb, Sr and Nd isotopes in alkalic to sub‐alkalic basalt derived from Phanerozoic (Patagonia) and Middle Archaean to Early Proterozoic (eastern China) subcrustal mantle is useful for identifying ‘end‐member’ components of the lithosphere. One component, having an isotopic composition close to PREMA, either continues to evolve virtually unchanged after incorporation into the lithosphere or is, itself, a relatively new addition even to old lithosphere. Another component, beginning with the isotopic composition of BSE, undergoes significant reduction in U/Pb and Sm/Nd (but not Rb/Sr) upon incorporation into the lithosphere and, with time, shows an increasingly retarded evolution of 206 Pb/ 204 Pb and negative ε Nd‐values approaching the isotopic composition of EMI. Five models are discussed that relate the isotopic composition of the continental lithospheric mantle to that of other parts of the terrestrial system, which may be involved in its origin and evolution. The potential locations of the contributing components and the mechanisms and timing of their assembly into lithosphere are considered. Current knowledge, however, does not allow us to distinguish unequivocally among the various scenarios for the creation and evolution of this reservoir.

Australian Journal of Earth Sciences↗

USGS2017

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel longterm “continuous” projections of climate evolution based on the output from GCMs, via the use of a statistical emulator. The emulator is calibrated using ensembles of GCM simulations, which have varying orbital configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enables a variety of investigations of long-term climate change to be conducted, which would not be possible with other modelling techniques on the same temporal and spatial scales. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the emulator to the late Pliocene (by modelling surface air temperature – SAT), comparing its results with palaeo-proxy data for a number of global sites, and to the next 200 kyr (thousand years) (by modelling SAT and precipitation). A range of CO2 scenarios are prescribed for each period. During the late Pliocene, we find that emulated SAT varies on an approximately precessional timescale, with evidence of increased obliquity response at times. A comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration for this period, estimated using the proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data from different sites and emulator results, finds that relatively similar CO2 concentrations are estimated based on sites at lower latitudes, whereas higher-latitude sites show larger discrepancies. In our second illustrative application, spanning the next 200 kyr into the future, we find that SAT oscillations appear to be primarily influenced by obliquity for the first ∼ 120 kyr, whilst eccentricity is relatively low, after which precession plays a more dominant role. Conversely, variations in precipitation over the entire period demonstrate a strong precessional signal. Overall, we find that the emulator provides a useful and powerful tool for rapidly simulating the long-term evolution of climate, both past and future, due to its relatively high spatial resolution and relatively low computational cost. However, there are uncertainties associated with the approach used, including the inability of the emulator to capture deviations from a quasi-stationary response to the forcing, such as transient adjustments of the deep-ocean temperature and circulation, in addition to its limited range of fixed ice sheet configurations and its requirement for prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Climate of the Past↗