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At least 1,495 records · Page 83Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations. A statistical change-factor approach was used to construct future climate time series that were used in the precipitation-runoff model to compute time series of future streamflows and reservoir water levels. Monthly change factors were computed by determining differences or fractional changes between baseline historical climate time series and future climate time series consisting of outputs from selected global climate models that were included in the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Eight sets of change factors were determined on the basis of outputs from four global climate models, each of which was run under two greenhouse-gas scenarios (the “A1b” and “A2” scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th assessment). The 4 global climate models whose data were used in this study were selected to represent a wide range of potential climate outcomes as compared to the entire range of potential climate outcomes associated with the 16 global climate models represented in the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Future land-cover and water-use data were estimated for use in the level-2 precipitation-runoff simulations to account for development-driven changes in land cover and water use. Future land-cover characteristics were estimated for selected future years based on population projections and zoning plans for communities in the basin. Future water-use data for major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were estimated from current per capita water use, population projections for 2035, and population projections for 2090 assuming full build-out. A statistical change-factor-based approach was used to estimate future water-use characteristics by major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities on the basis of reference-period historical water uses. Annual change factors that were determined for future years other than 2035 and 2090 (when the change factors could be explicitly computed) were estimated by interpolating or extrapolating linearly in time. Water uses by entities other than major water suppliers and wastewater-treatment facilities were assumed to remain unchanged because of uncertainty about if and (or) how they might change. Results from the level-1 simulations were analyzed primarily to facilitate evaluation of climate-driven temporal changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow and water-level characteristics, as well as in maximum and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflow and reservoir water levels. Results from the level-2 simulations were analyzed to help evaluate and contrast (relative to level-1 results) the effects of the added development-related factors on maximums and minimum 7-, 30-, and 180-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels and duration characteristics of 7- and 30-day average streamflows and reservoir water levels. Results for 12 stream locations and 5 reservoirs in the Upper Scioto River Basin are presented primarily as a series of plots. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Ohio↗
USGS1989

Ground-water levels, water quality, and potential effects of toxic-substance spills or cessation of quarry dewatering near a municipal ground-water supply, southern Franklin County, Ohio

A newly completed municipal ground-water supply that produces from a sand and gravel aquifer in southern Franklin County, Ohio, may be susceptible to potential sources of pollution. Among these are spills of toxic substances that could enter recharge areas of the aquifer or be carried by surface drainage and subsequently enter the aquifer by induced infiltration. Ground water of degraded quality also is present in the vicinity of several landfills located upstream from the municipal supply. Local dewatering by quarrying operations has created a ground-water divide which, at present, prevents direct movement of the degraded ground water to the municipal supply. In addition, the dewatering has held water levels at the largest landfills below the base of the landfill. Should the dewatering cease, concern would be raised regarding the rise of water levels at this landfills and transport of contaminants through the aquifer to the Scioto River and subsequently by the river to the well field. From June 1984 through July 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Columbus, Ohio, investigated the relations among the ground-water supply and potential sources of contamination by means of an observation-well network and a program of measuring water levels and sampling for water quality. Sample collections included those made to determine the baseline levels of organic chemicals and metals, as well as periodic sampling and analysis for common constituents to evaluate any changes taking place in the system. Finally, a steady-state, three-dimensional numerical model was used to determine ground-water flow directions and average ground-water velocities to asses potential effects of toxic-substance spills. The model also was used to simulate changes in the ground-water flow system that could result if part or all of the quarry dewatering ceased. Few of the organic-chemical and metal constituents analyzed for were present at detectable levels. With respect to chemical analysis of water and soil materials reported in earlier studies, no new problem areas were discovered as a result of either the baseline or periodic samplings. Model simulations suggest that, under March 1986 conditions, a toxic-substance spill along the major highways in the northern two-thirds of the study area eventually could discharge into one of the two quarries being dewatered or into the Scioto River. A toxic-substance spill in the southern one-third of the study area ultimately may discharge into the Scioto River, Big Walnut Creek, or possibly into the municipal ground-water supply. Model simulations also indicate that concentrated landfill leachate probably would not reach the municipal ground-water supply under current or well-field pumping conditions if dewatering ceased at either or both of the quarries.

Ohio↗
USGS2011

Analysis of the transport of sediment by the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown, New Hampshire, after the May 2006 flood

During May 13-16, 2006, rainfall in excess of 8.8 inches flooded central and southern New Hampshire. On May 15, 2006, a breach in a bank of the Suncook River in Epsom, New Hampshire, caused the river to follow a new path. In order to assess and predict the effect of the sediment in, and the subsequent flooding on, the river and flood plain, a study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) characterizing sediment transport in the Suncook River was undertaken in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (NHDES). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model was used to simulate flow and the transport of noncohesive sediments in the Suncook River from the upstream corporate limit of Epsom to the river's confluence with the Merrimack River in the Village of Suncook (Allenstown and Pembroke, N.H.), a distance of approximately 16 miles. In addition to determining total sediment loads, analyses in this study reflect flooding potentials for selected recurrence intervals that are based on the Suncook River streamgage flow data (streamgage 01089500) and on streambed elevations predicted by HEC-RAS for the end of water year 2010 (September 30, 2010) in the communities of Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown. This report presents changes in streambed and water-surface elevations predicted by the HEC-RAS model using data through the end of water year 2010 for the 50-, 10-, 2-, 1-, 0.2-percent annual exceedence probabilities (2-, 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval floods, respectively), calculated daily and annual total sediment loads, and a determination of aggrading and degrading stream reaches. The model was calibrated and evaluated for a 400-day span from May 8, 2008 through June 11, 2009; these two dates coincided with field collection of stream cross-sectional elevation data. Seven sediment-transport functions were evaluated in the model with the Laursen (Copeland) sediment-transport function best describing the sediment load, transport behavior, and changes in streambed elevation for the specified spatial and temporal conditions of the 400-day calibration period. Simulation results from the model and field-collected sediment data indicate that, downstream of the avulsion channel, for the average daily mean flow during the study period, approximately 100 to 400 tons per day of sediment (varying with daily mean flow) was moving past the Short Falls Road Bridge over the Suncook River in Epsom, while approximately 0.05 to 0.5 tons per day of sediment was moving past the Route 28 bridge in Pembroke and Allenstown, and approximately 1 to 10 tons per day was moving past the Route 3 bridge in Pembroke and Allenstown. Changes in water-surface elevation that the model predicted for the end of water year 2010 to be a result of changes in streambed elevation ranged from a mean increase of 0.20 feet (ft) for the 50-percent annual exceedence-probability flood (2-year recurrence-interval flood) due to an average thalweg increase of 0.88 ft between the Short Falls Road Bridge and the Buck Street Dams in Pembroke and Allenstown to a mean decrease of 0.41 ft for the 50-percent annual exceedence-probability flood due to an average thalweg decrease of 0.49 ft above the avulsion in Epsom. An analysis of shear stress (force created by a fluid acting on sediment particles) was undertaken to determine potential areas of erosion and deposition. Based on the median grain size (d50) and shear stress analysis, the study found that in general, for floods greater than the 50-percent annual exceedence probability flood, the shear stress in the streambed is greater than the critical shear stress in much of the river study reach. The result is an expectation of streambed-sediment movement and erosion even at high exceedence-probability events, pending although the stream ultimately attains equilibrium through stream-stabilization measures or the adjustment of the river over time. The potential for aggradation in the Suncook River is greatest in the reach downstream of the avulsion. Specifically, these reaches are (1) downstream of the former sand pit from adjacent to Round Pond to downstream of the flood chute at the large meander bends, and (2) downstream of the Short Falls Road Bridge to approximately 3,800 ft upstream of the Route 28 bridge. The potential for degradation-net lowering of the streambed-is greatest for the reach upstream of the avulsion to the Route 4 bridge.

New Hampshire↗
USGS1999

Converting contour-line data into data sets for a multilayered aquifer using a geographic information system

Data sets that define the altitude of the base of basin-fill units in the west Salt River Valley were developed for the National Water-Quality Assessment program using a geographic information system. Data that define the land surface and the base of each basin-fill unit within a multilayered aquifer were compiled into a series of raster-data lattices. The lattice of each basin-fill layer was constructed using contour lines from a published hydrogeologic report. The land-surface lattice was constructed from a:250,000-scale digital elevation models of the area. The resulting raster-data set was queried to define the altitude of the base of each basin-fill unit at specified locations. Using a computer script to be run within a geographic information system, a table was produced that provided information that related the altitude of the bottom of the wells to the altitudes of the bases of the basin-fill units. A comparison of the altitude at the bottom of wells with the range in altitude between each basin-fill unit base made it possible to begin to determine the basin-fill unit in which wells were completed.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

Spatial modeling of wild bird risk factors to investigate highly pathogenic A(H5N1) avian influenza virus transmission

One of the longest-persisting avian influenza viruses in history, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A(H5N1), continues to evolve after 18 years, advancing the threat of a global pandemic. Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae), are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV, and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using GIS and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 and 30 km resolutions and for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance across species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on prevalence values then totaled across species. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR. We also explored the effect of resampling waterfowl layers from 1 km to 30 km resolution for multi-scale risk modeling. Results indicated low average difference (less than 0.16 and 0.01 standard deviations for WAB and WPR, respectively), with greatest differences in the north for the breeding season and southeast for the wintering season. This work provides the first geospatial models of waterfowl abundance available for China. The indices provide important inputs for modeling disease transmission risk at the interface of poultry and wild birds. These models are easily adaptable, have broad utility to both disease and conservation needs, and will be available to the scientific community for advanced modeling applications.

Avian Diseases↗
USGS2012

Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining appropriate sample sizes, by management unit, to estimate harvest rate parameters each year may be too expensive, assumptions of constant annual harvest rates may be necessary. However, if changes in harvest regulations or hunter behavior influence subadult male harvest rates, the PASAK model could provide an unreliable index to population changes.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2025

Summary of selenium in the lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado—Information and data gaps

The Cretaceous Mancos Shale is a geologic source of selenium in the lower Gunnison River Basin. Natural weathering processes and human activity mobilize selenium from the Mancos Shale and derived materials, and surface water, groundwater, and sediment all affect the transport of selenium from source areas to receiving streams and biota. Selenium accumulates through the aquatic food chain, and its toxic effects can result in invertebrate mortality and mortality, decreased reproduction, and deformities to fish and birds. The Bureau of Reclamation, in cooperation with the State of Colorado and Gunnison River Basin water users, is implementing a Selenium Management Program to reduce selenium concentrations in the lower Gunnison River Basin of Colorado. Goals of the Selenium Management Program are to (1) achieve compliance with the State of Colorado chronic aquatic-life standard for dissolved selenium (4.6 micrograms per liter) in the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colorado; (2) sufficiently improve water-quality conditions to assist in the recovery of endangered species in the Gunnison and Colorado Rivers by reducing selenium concentrations; and (3) support continued water uses in the basin. Many previous studies have contributed to the understanding of selenium in the environment; however, monitoring and research data gaps exist in the lower Gunnison River Basin. The purpose of this report is to summarize information regarding selenium in the lower Gunnison River Basin and describe strategies for scientific research and monitoring to potentially improve understanding of selenium sources; processes affecting the mobilization, transport, and fate of selenium; and the effects of selenium-mitigation projects in the lower Gunnison River Basin. Monitoring and research data gaps discussed in this report include geologic mapping and geochemical source characterization, long-term and ongoing monitoring of the surface-water and groundwater networks, developing and refining statistical models, characterizing selenium on suspended sediment, modeling selenium in the food web, evaluating best management practices, and more.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Herring Disease Program II 19120111-E - 2019 Annual Report

We will investigate fish health factors that may be contributing to the failed recovery of Pacific herring populations in Prince William Sound. Field samples will provide infection and disease prevalence data from Prince William Sound and Sitka Sound that will inform the ASA model, serological data that will indicate the prior exposure history and future susceptibility of herring to VHS, and diet information that will provide insights into the unusually high prevalence of Ichthyophonus that occurs in juvenile herring from Cordova Harbor. Laboratory studies will validate the newly-developed plaque neutralization assay as a quantifiable measure of herd immunity against VHS, provide further understanding of disease cofactors including temperature and salinity, investigate the possibility of an invertebrate host for Ichthyophonus, and assess the virulence of other endemic pathogens to Pacific herring. Information from the field and laboratory studies will be integrated into the current ASA model, a novel ASA-type model that is based on the immune status of herring age cohorts.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Continuous and high-resolution longitudinal profiles of the water surface and riverbed elevation for 282 miles of the Colorado River from Lees Ferry to Pearce Ferry, Arizona, 2021

Longitudinal profiles of water surface and riverbed elevations capture key geomorphic characteristics that can be affected by water infrastructure and natural processes. Continuous water surface profiles of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, a river influenced by two of the largest dams in the United States, have been measured infrequently. The water surface profile was first measured in 1923, 13 years before the completion of Hoover Dam, which impounded water into western Grand Canyon, and 40 years before the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, which affected streamflow and sediment supply for all of Grand Canyon. The water surface profile was next measured in 2000, 37 years after the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, although this profile did not include the segment affected by Hoover Dam. A continuous profile of riverbed elevations has never been published. Here, we present the first complete, coupled water surface and riverbed elevation profiles, collected in 2021 during a period of steady releases from Glen Canyon Dam. The profiles were constructed from positions and elevations measured by boat-based global navigation satellite systems and from bathymetry collected by multibeam sonar. Data collected by boat were supplemented by data from a photogrammetry-derived digital surface model that was created from concurrently collected aerial images. Independent measurements made by conventional total stations referenced to a common geodetic control network were used to evaluate accuracy of all measurements. The final water surface and riverbed elevation profiles improved the accuracy and precision reported for previous profiles. In this study, the mean absolute vertical accuracy of water surface elevations was 0.07 meter for 85 percent of river miles and 0.19 meter for 11 percent of river miles. For the remaining 4 percent of river miles, water surface elevations were interpolated between measured values. The profiles reported herein can be used for current assessment of Colorado River geomorphic conditions, quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.quantification of changes in the river over time, and predictive modeling of river resources for potential future management scenarios.

Arizona↗
USGS2008

Estimated Flood-Inundation Mapping for the Upper Blue River, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch in Kansas City, Missouri, 2006-08

In the interest of improved public safety during flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Kansas City, Missouri, completed a flood-inundation study of the Blue River in Kansas City, Missouri, from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at Kenneth Road to 63rd Street, of Indian Creek from the Kansas-Missouri border to its mouth, and of Dyke Branch from the Kansas-Missouri border to its mouth, to determine the estimated extent of flood inundation at selected flood stages on the Blue River, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch. The results of this study spatially interpolate information provided by U.S. Geological Survey gages, Kansas City Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time gages, and the National Weather Service flood-peak prediction service that comprise the Blue River flood-alert system and are a valuable tool for public officials and residents to minimize flood deaths and damage in Kansas City. To provide public access to the information presented in this report, a World Wide Web site (http://mo.water.usgs.gov/indep/kelly/blueriver) was created that displays the results of two-dimensional modeling between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street, estimated flood-inundation maps for 13 flood stages, the latest gage heights, and National Weather Service stage forecasts for each forecast location within the study area. The results of a previous study of flood inundation on the Blue River from 63rd Street to the mouth also are available. In addition the full text of this report, all tables and maps are available for download (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2008/5068). Thirteen flood-inundation maps were produced at 2-foot intervals for water-surface elevations from 763.8 to 787.8 feet referenced to the Blue River at the 63rd Street Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time stream gage operated by the city of Kansas City, Missouri. Each map is associated with gages at Kenneth Road, Blue Ridge Boulevard, Kansas City (at Bannister Road), U.S. Highway 71, and 63rd Street on the Blue River, and at 103rd Street on Indian Creek. The National Weather Service issues peak stage forecasts for Blue Ridge Boulevard, Kansas City (at Bannister Road), U.S. Highway 71, and 63rd Street during floods. A two-dimensional depth-averaged flow model simulated flooding within a hydraulically complex, 5.6-mile study reach of the Blue River between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street. Hydraulic simulation of the study reach provided information for the estimated flood-inundation maps and water-velocity magnitude and direction maps. Flood profiles of the upper Blue River between the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at Kenneth Road and Hickman Mills Drive were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency discharges and 2006 stage-discharge ratings at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. Flood profiles between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street were developed from two-dimensional hydraulic modeling conducted for this study. Flood profiles of Indian Creek between the Kansas-Missouri border and the mouth were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using current stage-discharge ratings at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at 103rd Street, and water-surface slopes derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations. Mapped flood water-surface elevations at the mouth of Dyke Branch were set equal to the flood water-surface elevations of Indian Creek at the Dyke Branch mouth for all Indian Creek water-surface elevations; water-surface elevation slopes were derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2014

Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) ‐ New functionality for predicting changes in distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation in response to sea level rise

Introduction Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) is an ecologically important habitat world‐wide. In Pacific Northwest (PNW) estuaries, SAV in the lower intertidal and shallow subtidal habitats are dominated by the native seagrass, Zostera marina Linnaeus, 1753. Within this report, SAV and seagrass refer to Z. marina seagrass beds in PNW estuaries. Z. marina provides important habitat for juvenile salmon, dungeness crabs, migratory shore birds, and benthic assemblages (e.g., Philips, 1984; Williamson, 2006; Ferraro and Cole, 2007; Shaughnessy et al., 2012). Z. marina typically occurs in a narrow depth range. For example, in Oregon estuaries Zostera marina primarily occurs within the depth range of ‐1 to +1 m relative to Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) (Young et al. 2012). Because of their narrow depth range, the distribution of these seagrass beds are potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) through increased water depths and associated reductions in underwater light levels, alterations in tidal variations, altered water movement and wave action, and increased seawater intrusion (Short and Neckles, 1999). The “Sea‐Level Affecting Marshes Model” (SLAMM) is a moderate resolution model used to predict the effects of sea level rise on marsh habitats (Craft et al. 2009). SLAMM has been used extensively on both the west coast (e.g., Glick et al., 2007) and east coast (e.g., Geselbracht et al., 2011) of the United States to evaluate potential changes in the distribution and extent of tidal marsh habitats. However, a limitation of the current version of SLAMM, (Version 6.2) is that it lacks the ability to model distribution changes in seagrass habitat resulting from sea level rise. Because of the ecological importance of SAV habitats, U.S. EPA, USGS, and USDA partnered with Warren Pinnacle Consulting to enhance the SLAMM modeling software to include new functionality in order to predict changes in Zostera marina distribution within Pacific Northwest estuaries in response to sea level rise. Specifically, the objective was to develop a SAV model that used generally available GIS data and parameters that were predictive and that could be customized for other estuaries that have GIS layers of existing SAV distribution. This report describes the procedure used to develop the SAV model for the Yaquina Bay Estuary, Oregon, appends a statistical script based on the open source R software to generate a similar SAV model for other estuaries that have data layers of existing SAV, and describes how to incorporate the model coefficients from the site‐specific SAV model into SLAMM to predict the effects of sea level rise on Zostera marina distributions. To demonstrate the applicability of the R tools, we utilize them to develop model coefficients for Willapa Bay, Washington using site‐specific SAV data.

Oregon↗
USGS2014

Source and progression of a submarine landslide and tsunami: The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake at Valdez

Like many subduction zone earthquakes, the deadliest aspects of the 1964 M = 9.2 Alaska earthquake were the tsunamis it caused. The worst of these were generated by local submarine landslides induced by the earthquake. These caused high runups, engulfing several coastal towns in Prince William Sound. In this paper, we study one of these cases in detail, the Port Valdez submarine landslide and tsunami. We combine eyewitness reports, preserved film, and careful posttsunami surveys with new geophysical data to inform numerical models for landslide tsunami generation. We review the series of events as recorded at Valdez old town and then determine the corresponding subsurface events that led to the tsunami. We build digital elevation models of part of the pretsunami and posttsunami fjord‐head delta. Comparing them reveals a ~1500 m long region that receded 150 m to the east, which we interpret as the primary delta landslide source. Multibeam imagery and high‐resolution seismic reflection data identify a ~400 m wide chute with hummocky deposits at its terminus, which may define the primary slide path. Using these elements we run hydrodynamic models of the landslide‐driven tsunamis that match observations of current direction, maximum inundation, and wave height at Valdez old town. We speculate that failure conditions at the delta front may have been influenced by manmade changes in drainage patterns as well as the fast retreat of Valdez and other glaciers during the past century.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

A geographic information system tool for aquatic resource conservation in the Red and Sabine River Watersheds of the southeast United States

Our goal was to build a geographic information system (GIS) tool to enhance modeling and hypothesis testing relevant to watersheds and fish fauna of the Red and Sabine Rivers in the southeastern United States. Species of concern were identified from wildlife action plans and Web sites. Spatial distributions of fish species and mercury in fillets were delineated using data from states. Public georeferenced data were obtained on land cover, soil type, forest canopy, impervious surfaces, wastewater facilities and 303(d) impaired waters. Overlay maps highlighted patterns across 8-digit hydrologic unit codes (HUCs). Bossier City, Louisiana and Beaumont, Texas areas displayed impervious surfaces over 10% and 303(d) waters per HUC were 20% and 8%, respectively. Because bowfin (Amia calva) (n=299) and bass (Micropterus spp.) (n=1493) occurred in up to 44% of HUCs and fillets contained elemental mercury concentrations across ranges monitored, they were appropriate indicators of bioavailable mercury. Of the total fish number showing >0.5ppm, 81% of records were derived from bowfin and bass, and stepwise multiple linear regressions indicated fish with mercury at these concentrations correlated with environmental variables. Detrended correspondence analysis showed total species occurrence and environmental relationships significant, where 81.6% of the variability in fish occurrence was explained by impervious surface, land cover other than canopy or impervious surface (such as wetlands and agricultural area) and canopy (forest type). Two-way indicator species analysis delineated species co-occurrence in HUCs (14 groups) and similarity of species composition (nine groups). Results identified three HUC groupings as potential targets for managerial interest. Quality control concerns for GIS development included site name data and priority rankings of critical fish species. This tool can be used to support modeling and trend analyses for several purposes, such as those relevant for developing and reporting on water quality standards and critical habitat assessments.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2014

210Pb dating

Roughly fifty years ago, a small group of scientists from Belgium and the United States, trying to better constrain ice sheet accumulation rates, attempted to apply what was then know about environmental lead as a potential geochronometer. Thus Goldberg (1963) developed the first principles of the 210 Pb dating method, which was soon followed by a paper by Crozaz et al. (1964), who examined accumulation history of Antarctic snow using 210 Pb. Shortly thereafter, Koide et al. (1972, 1973) adapted this technique to unravel sediment deposition and accumulation records in deep-sea environments. Serendipitously, they chose to work in a deep basin off California, where an independent and robust age model had already been developed. Krishanswami et al. (1971) extended the use of this technique to lacustrine deposits to reconstruct depositional histories of lake sediment, and maybe more importantly, contaminant inputs and burial. Thus, the powerful tool for dating recent (up to about one century old) sediment deposits was established and soon widely adopted. Today almost all oceanographic or limnologic studies that address recent depositional reconstructions employ 210 Pb as one of several possible geochronometers (Andrews et al., 2009; Gale, 2009; Baskaran, 2011; Persson and Helms, 2011). This paper presents a short overview of the principles of 210 Pb dating and provides a few examples that illustrate the utility of this tracer in contrasting depositional systems. Potential caveats and uncertainties (Appleby et al., 1986; Binford, 1990; Binford et al., 1993; Smith, 2001; Hancock et al., 2002) inherent to the use and interpretation of 210 Pb-derived age-models are also introduced. Recommendations as to best practices for most reliable uses and reporting are presented in the summary.

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Comparing seasonal dynamics of the Lake Huron zooplankton community between 1983-1984 and 2007 and revisiting the impact of Bythotrephes planktivory

Zooplankton community composition can be influenced by lake productivity as well as planktivory by fish or invertebrates. Previous analyses based on long-term Lake Huron zooplankton data from August reported a shift in community composition between the 1980s and 2000s: proportional biomass of calanoid copepods increased while that of cyclopoid copepods and herbivorous cladocerans decreased. Herein, we used seasonally collected data from Lake Huron in 1983–1984 and 2007 and reported similar shifts in proportional biomass. We also used a series of generalized additive models to explore differences in seasonal abundance by species and found that all three cyclopoid copepod species ( Diacyclops thomasi, Mesocylops edax, Tropocyclops prasinus mexicanus ) exhibited higher abundance in 1983–1984 than in 2007. Surprisingly, only one ( Epischura lacustris ) of seven calanoid species exhibited higher abundance in 2007. The results for cladocerans were also mixed with Bosmina spp. exhibiting higher abundance in 1983–1984, while Daphnia galeata mendotae reached a higher level of abundance in 2007. We used a subset of the 2007 data to estimate not only the vertical distribution of Bythotrephes longimanus and their prey, but also the consumption by Bythotrephes in the top 20 m of water. This epilimnetic layer was dominated by copepod copepodites and nauplii, and consumption either exceeded (Hammond Bay site) or equaled 65% (Detour site) of epilimnetic zooplankton production. The lack of spatial overlap between Bythotrephes and herbivorous cladocerans and cyclopoid copepod prey casts doubt on the hypothesis that Bythotrephes planktivory was the primary driver underlying the community composition changes in the 2000s.

Lake Huron↗
USGS2025

An exploration of open-system uranium-series history of marine terrace corals, Perachora Peninsula, Greece and San Nicolas Island, California, USA

Emergent marine terraces record past periods of relatively high sea level and are common on uplifting coasts worldwide. Such landforms are extensive around the Gulf of Corinth area of Greece and along the coast of California, USA. In the Gulf of Corinth region, marine terraces record Quaternary uplift due to ongoing basin extension on the northern side of the Africa-Eurasia-Aegean Sea plate boundary. Although dating of terrace fossils has been extensive in the Perachora Peninsula part of this region, some apparent ages are much older (∼190 ka to ∼150 ka) and some are much younger (∼91 ka to ∼69 ka) than expected for a marine terrace that has long been hypothesized to be of last-interglacial (∼120 ka) age. New uranium-series analyses of terrace corals from two previously studied localities are reported here. As with previous work, the new results show that these corals have behaved as open systems, with back-calculated, initial 234 U/ 238 U values higher than those found in modern seawater. New and previously published U-series analyses of last-interglacial corals from San Nicolas Island, California (USA) illustrate the possible mechanisms of open-system behavior, which include both “early” alpha-recoil-derived additions of 230 Th and 234 U, and “continuing” alpha-recoil-derived additions of these nuclides. Many corals from the Perachora Peninsula appear to have experienced the “continuing” alpha-recoil-derived open-system history, which explains the apparent older ages, and permits an interpretation that all analyzed corals likely date to the last interglacial period, ∼120 ka. If the estimated age of ∼120 ka reported here is correct, this age, along with considerations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modeling of past sea level, indicates that the southern side of the Perachora Peninsula has experienced uplift rates ranging from ∼0.23 m/kyr to ∼0.57 m/kyr, increasing to the southeast, in agreement with previous work. Interpretation of the geomorphology of the northern side of the peninsula has been controversial for more than four decades. The “stepped” topography has been interpreted as either a series of successively higher and older marine terraces, as on the southern side, or a marine terrace of one age that has been displaced by a series of shore-parallel, northward-dipping normal faults. In the second interpretation, topographic steps in the landscape are interpreted to be fault scarps, not ancient sea cliffs. Interpretation of the open-system U-series ages indicates that marine deposits at elevations of ∼22 m and ∼44 m are both likely ∼120 ka, supporting the scenario that steps in the landscape are likely fault scarps, not sea cliffs. Using the new U-series ages of ∼120 ka, along with GIA-modeled paleo-sea level confirms another previous study that uplift rates on the northern side of the peninsula are at least as high as 0.39–0.46 m/kyr.

California↗
USGS1997

Analysis of environmental data with censored observations

The potential threats to humans and to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems from environmental contamination could depend on the sum of the concentrations of different chemicals. However, direct summation of environmental data is not generally feasible because it is common for some chemical concentrations to be recorded as being below the analytical reporting limit. This creates special problems in the analysis of the data. A new model selection procedure, named forward censored regression, is introduced for selecting an appropriate model for environmental data with censored observations. The procedure is demonstrated using concentrations of atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino- s -triazine), deethylatrazine (DEA, 2-amino-4-chloro-6-isopropylamino- s -triazine), and deisopropylatrazine (DIA, 2-amino-4-chloro-6-ethylamino- s -triazine) in groundwater in the midwestern United States by using the data derived from a previous study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. More than 80% of the observations for each compound for this study were left censored at 0.05 μg/L. The values for censored observations of atrazine, DEA, and DIA are imputed with the selected models. The summation of atrazine residue (atrazine + DEA + DIA) can then be calculated using the combination of observed and imputed values to generate a pseudo-complete data set. The all-subsets regression procedure is applied to the pseudo-complete data to select the final model for atrazine residue. The methodology presented can be used to analyze similar cases of environmental contamination involving censored data.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2013

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep

Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗