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At least 1,495 records · Page 83Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Geohydrology, geochemistry, and groundwater simulation (1992-2011) and analysis of potential water-supply management options, 2010-60, of the Langford Basin, California

Groundwater withdrawals began in 1992 from the Langford Basin within the Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), California. From April 1992 to December 2010, approximately 12,300 acre-feet of water (averaging about 650 acre-feet per year) has been withdrawn from the basin and transported to the adjacent Irwin Basin. Since withdrawals began, water levels in the basin have declined by as much as 40 feet, and the quality of the groundwater withdrawn from the basin has deteriorated. The U.S. Geological Survey collected geohydrologic data from Langford Basin during 1992–2011 to determine the quantity and quality of groundwater available in the basin. Geophysical surveys, including gravity, seismic refraction, and time-domain electromagnetic induction surveys, were conducted to determine the depth and shape of the basin, to delineate depths to the Quaternary-Tertiary interface, and to map the depth to the water table and changes in water quality. Data were collected from existing wells and test holes, as well as 11 monitor wells that were installed at 5 sites as part of this study. Water-quality samples collected from wells in the basin were used to determine the groundwater chemistry within the basin and to delineate potential sources of poor-quality groundwater. Analysis of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in groundwater indicates that present-day precipitation is not a major source of recharge to the basin. Tritium and carbon-14 data indicate that most of the basin was recharged prior to 1952, and the groundwater in the basin has an apparent age of 12,500 to 30,000 years. Recharge to the basin, estimated to be less than 50 acre-feet per year, has not been sufficient to replenish the water that is being withdrawn from the basin. A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed for the Langford Basin to better understand the aquifer system used by the Fort Irwin NTC as part of its water supply, and to provide a tool to help manage groundwater resources at the NTC. Measured groundwater-level declines since the initiation of withdrawals (1992–2011) were used to calibrate the groundwater-flow model. The simulated recharge was about 46 acre-feet per year, including approximately 6 acre-feet per year of natural recharge derived from precipitation runoff and as much as 40 acre-feet per year of underflow from the Irwin Basin. Between April 1992 and December 2010, an average of about 650 acre-feet per year of water was withdrawn from the Langford Basin. Groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge resulted in a net loss of 11,670 acre-feet of groundwater storage within the basin for the simulation period. The Fort Irwin NTC is considering various groundwater-management options to address the limited water resources in the Langford Basin. The calibrated Langford Basin groundwater-flow model was used to evaluate the hydrologic effects of four groundwater-withdrawal scenarios being considered by the Fort Irwin NTC over the next 50 years (January 2011 through December 2060). Continuation of the 2010 withdrawal rate in the three existing production wells will result in 70 feet of additional drawdown in the central part of the basin. Redistributing the 2010 withdrawal rate equally to the three existing wells and two proposed new wells in the northern and southern parts of the basin would result in about 10 feet less drawdown in the central part of the basin but about 100 feet of additional drawdown in the new well in the northern part of the basin and about 50 feet of additional drawdown in the new well in the southern part of the basin. Reducing the withdrawals from the three existing production wells in the central part of the basin from about 45,000 acre-feet to about 32,720 acre-feet would result in about 40 feet of additional drawdown in the central basin near the pumping wells, about 25 feet less than if withdrawals were not reduced. The combination of reducing and redistributing the cumulative withdrawals to the three existing and two proposed new wells results in about 40 feet of additional drawdown in the central and southern parts of the basin and about 70 feet in the northern part of the basin. These results show that reducing and redistributing the groundwater withdrawals would maintain the upper aquifer at greater than 50 percent of its predevelopment saturated thickness throughout the groundwater basin. The scenarios simulated for this study demonstrate how the calibrated model can be utilized to evaluate the hydrologic effects of different water-management strategies.

California↗
USGS2014

Simulation of groundwater flow in the "1,500-foot" sand and "2,000-foot" sand, with scenarios to mitigate saltwater migration in the "2,000-foot" sand of the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana

Groundwater withdrawals have caused saltwater to encroach into freshwater-bearing aquifers beneath Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Groundwater investigations in the 1960s identified a freshwater-saltwater interface located at the Baton Rouge Fault, across which abrupt changes in water levels occur. Aquifers south of the fault generally contain saltwater, and aquifers north of the fault contain freshwater, though limited saltwater encroachment has been detected within 7 of the 10 aquifers north of the fault. The 10 aquifers beneath the Baton Rouge area, which includes East and West Baton Rouge Parishes, Pointe Coupee Parish, and East and West Feliciana Parishes, provided about 167 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for public supply and industrial use in 2010. Groundwater withdrawals from the “2,000-foot” sand in East Baton Rouge Parish have caused water-level drawdown as great as 356 feet (ft) and induced saltwater movement northward across the fault. Saltwater encroachment threatens industrial wells that are located about 3 miles north of the fault. Constant and variable-density groundwater models were developed with the MODFLOW and SEAWAT groundwater modeling codes to evaluate strategies to control saltwater migration, including changes in the distribution of groundwater withdrawals and installation of “scavenger” wells to intercept saltwater before it reaches existing production wells. Six hypothetical scenarios simulated the effects of different groundwater withdrawal options on groundwater levels within the “1,500-foot” sand and the “2,000-foot” sand and the transport of saltwater within the “2,000-foot” sand during 2008–47. Scenario 1 is considered a base case for comparison to the other five scenarios and simulates continuation of 2007 reported groundwater withdrawals. Scenario 2 simulates discontinuation of withdrawals from seven selected industrial wells located in the northwest corner of East Baton Rouge Parish and predicts that water levels within the “1,500-foot” sand will be about 10 to 12 ft higher with this withdrawal reduction than under scenario 1. Scenario 3 simulates the effects of a scavenger well on water levels and chloride concentrations within the “2,000-foot” sand. The scavenger well, which withdraws water from the base of the “2,000-foot” sand at a rate of 2.0 Mgal/d, is simulated at two possible locations. In comparison to the concentrations simulated in scenario 1, operation of the scavenger well at the locations specified in scenario 3 reduces the chloride concentrations at all existing chloride-observation well locations. Scenario 4 simulates a 3.6 Mgal/d reduction in total groundwater withdrawals from selected wells screened in the “2,000-foot” sand that are located in the Baton Rouge industrial district. Under scenario 4, chloride concentrations decrease in the leading portion of the plume south of the industrial district but increase in areas farther east. Scenario 5 simulates the effects of total cessation of withdrawals from the “2,000-foot” sand in the industrial district, which causes a change in the groundwater-flow direction toward municipal supply wells and increased chloride concentrations in the area where municipal supply wells are located. Scenario 6 simulates the combined effect of withdrawal reductions from the “2,000-foot” sand and operation of a scavenger well and was most effective at decreasing the size of the plume area and median and mean chloride concentrations within the “2000-foot” sand in the Baton Rouge area.

Louisiana↗
USGS2014

Origins and delineation of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer and changes in the distribution of saltwater in Miami-Dade County, Florida

Intrusion of saltwater into parts of the shallow karst Biscayne aquifer is a major concern for the 2.5 million residents of Miami-Dade County that rely on this aquifer as their primary drinking water supply. Saltwater intrusion of this aquifer began when the Everglades were drained to provide dry land for urban development and agriculture. The reduction in water levels caused by this drainage, combined with periodic droughts, allowed saltwater to flow inland along the base of the aquifer and to seep directly into the aquifer from the canals. The approximate inland extent of saltwater was last mapped in 1995. An examination of the inland extent of saltwater and the sources of saltwater in the aquifer was completed during 2008–2011 by using (1) all available salinity information, (2) time-series electromagnetic induction log datasets from 35 wells, (3) time-domain electromagnetic soundings collected at 79 locations, (4) a helicopter electromagnetic survey done during 2001 that was processed, calibrated, and published during the study, (5) cores and geophysical logs collected from 8 sites for stratigraphic analysis, (6) 8 new water-quality monitoring wells, and (7) analyses of 69 geochemical samples. The results of the study indicate that as of 2011 approximately 1,200 square kilometers (km 2 ) of the mainland part of the Biscayne aquifer were intruded by saltwater. The saltwater front was mapped farther inland than it was in 1995 in eight areas totaling about 24.1 km 2 . In many of these areas, analyses indicated that saltwater had encroached along the base of the aquifer. The saltwater front was mapped closer to the coast than it was in 1995 in four areas totaling approximately 6.2 km 2 . The changes in the mapped extent of saltwater resulted from improved spatial information, actual movement of the saltwater front, or a combination of both. Salinity monitoring in some of the canals in Miami-Dade County between 1988 and 2010 indicated influxes of saltwater, with maximum salinities ranging from 1.4 to 32 practical salinity units (PSU) upstream of the salinity control structures. Time-series electromagnetic induction log data from monitoring wells G–3601, G–3608, and G–3701, located adjacent to the Biscayne, Snapper Creek, and Black Creek Canals, respectively, and upstream of the salinity control structures, indicated shallow influxes of conductive water in the aquifer that likely resulted from leakage of brackish water or saltwater from these canals. The determination that saltwater influxes were recent is supported by the similarity in the oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope composition in samples from the Snapper Creek Canal, 1.6 kilometers (km) inland of a salinity control structure, and in samples from well G–3608, which is adjacent to the canal, as well as by the relative ages of the water sampled from well G–3608 and other wells open to the aquifer below the saltwater interface. Historical and recent salinity information from the Card Sound Road Canal, monitoring well FKS8 located adjacent to the canal, and the 2001 helicopter electromagnetic survey indicated that saltwater may occasionally leak from this canal as far inland as 15 km. This leakage may be prevented or reduced by a salinity control structure that was installed in May 2010. Saltwater also may have leaked from the Princeton Canal. Results of geochemical sampling and analysis indicate a close correspondence between droughts and saltwater intrusion. Tritium/helium-3 apparent (piston-flow) ages determined from samples of saltwater with chloride concentrations of about 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L) or greater generally corresponded to a period during which droughts were frequent. Comparison of average daily air temperatures in Miami, Florida, with estimates of recharge temperatures determined from the dissolved gas composition in water samples indicated that saltwater likely entered the aquifer in April or early May when water levels are typically at their lowest during the year. Conversely, most of the samples of freshwater with chloride concentrations less than about 1,000 mg/L indicate recharge temperatures corresponding to air temperatures in mid to late May when rainfall and water levels in the aquifer increase, and the piston-flow ages of these samples correspond to wet years. The piston-flow ages of freshwater samples generally were younger than ages of samples of saltwater. Saltwater samples that were depleted in boron, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and sulfate, and enriched in calcium relative to the concentrations theoretically produced by freshwater/seawater mixing, generally were found to be associated with areas where saltwater had recently intruded. The calcium to (bicarbonate + sulfate) molar ratios (Ca/(HCO 3 +SO 4 )) of these samples generally were greater than 1. Saltwater samples from some of the monitoring wells, however, indicated little or no enrichment or depletion of these ions relative to the theoretical freshwater/seawater mixing line, and the Ca/(HCO 3 +SO 4 ) molar ratios of these samples generally were less than 1. Results indicated that aquifer materials are approaching equilibrium with seawater at these well locations.

Florida↗
USGS2014

Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773 Mgal/d in 2000. The change in groundwater-use trend in the early 1980s and the following period of relatively slight trend is attributable to the concomitant effects of increasing public-supply withdrawals and decreasing use of water by the phosphate industry and agriculture. On the basis of available historical data and exploratory analyses, empirical lake water-level, groundwater-level, and spring-flow models were developed for 22 lakes, 23 wells, and 6 springs. Input time series consisting of various frequencies and frequency-band components of daily rainfall (1942 to 2008) and monthly total groundwater use (1957 to 2008) resulted in hybrid signal-decomposition artificial neural network models. The final models explained much of the variability in observed hydrologic data, with 43 of the 51 sites having coefficients of determination exceeding 0.6, and the models matched the magnitude of the observed data reasonably well, such that models for 32 of the 51 sites had root-mean-square errors less than 10 percent of the measured range of the data. The Central Florida Artificial Neural Network Decision Support System was developed to integrate historical databases and the 102 site-specific artificial neural network models, model controls, and model output into a spreadsheet application with a graphical user interface that allows the user to simulate scenarios of interest. Overall, the data-mining analyses indicate that the Floridan aquifer system in central Florida is a highly conductive, dynamic, open system that is strongly influenced by external forcing. The most important external forcing appears to be rainfall, which explains much of the multiyear cyclic variability and long-term downward trends observed in lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows. For most sites, groundwater use explains less of the observed variability in water levels and flows than rainfall. Relative groundwater-use impacts are greater during droughts, however, and long-term trends in water levels and flows were identified that are consistent with historical groundwater-use patterns. The sensitivity of the hydrologic system to rainfall is expected, owing to the well-drained karst terrain and relatively thin confinement of the Floridan aquifer system in much of central Florida. These characteristics facilitate the relatively rapid transmission of infiltrating water from rainfall to the water table and contribute to downward leakage of water to the Floridan aquifer system. The areally distributed nature of rainfall, as opposed to the site-specific nature of groundwater use, and the generally high transmissivity and low storativity properties of the semiconfined Floridan aquifer system contribute to the prevalence of water-level and flow patterns that mimic rainfall patterns. In general, the data-mining analyses demonstrate that the hydrologic system in central Florida is affected by groundwater use differently during wet periods, when little or no system storage is available (high water levels), compared to dry periods, when there is excess system storage (low water levels). Thus, by driving the overall behavior of the system, rainfall indirectly influences the degree to which groundwater use will effect persistent trends in water levels and flows, with groundwater-use impacts more prevalent during periods of low water levels and spring flows caused by low rainfall and less prevalent during periods of high water levels and spring flows caused by high rainfall. Differences in the magnitudes of rainfall and groundwater use during wet and dry periods also are important determinants of hydrologic response. An important implication of the data-mining analyses is that rainfall variability at subannual to multidecadal timescales must be considered in combination with groundwater use to provide robust system-response predictions that enhance sustainable resource management in an open karst aquifer system. The data-driven approach was limited, however, by the confounding effects of correlation between rainfall and groundwater use, the quality and completeness of the historical databases, and the spatial variations in groundwater use. The data-mining analyses indicate that available historical data when used alone do not contain sufficient information to definitively quantify the related individual effects of rainfall and groundwater use on hydrologic response. The knowledge gained from data-driven modeling and the results from physics-based modeling, when compared and used in combination, can yield a more comprehensive assessment and a more robust understanding of the hydrologic system than either of the approaches used separately.

Florida↗
USGS2015

Estimation of unaltered daily mean streamflow at ungaged streams of New York, excluding Long Island, water years 1961-2010

The lakes, rivers, and streams of New York State provide an essential water resource for the State. The information provided by time series hydrologic data is essential to understanding ways to promote healthy instream ecology and to strengthen the scientific basis for sound water management decision making in New York. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, has developed the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool to estimate a daily mean hydrograph for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2010, at ungaged locations across the State. The New York Streamflow Estimation Tool produces a complete estimated daily mean time series from which daily flow statistics can be estimated. In addition, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool provides a means for quantitative flow assessments at ungaged locations that can be used to address the objectives of the Clean Water Act—to restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the Nation’s waters. The New York Streamflow Estimation Tool uses data from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow network for selected streamgages in New York (excluding Long Island) and surrounding States with shared hydrologic boundaries, and physical and climate basin characteristics to estimate the natural unaltered streamflow at ungaged stream locations. The unaltered streamflow is representative of flows that are minimally altered by regulation, diversion, or mining, and other anthropogenic activities. With the streamflow network data, flow-duration exceedance probability equations were developed to estimate unaltered streamflow exceedance probabilities at an ungaged location using a methodology that equates streamflow as a percentile from a flow-duration curve for a particular day at a hydrologically similar reference streamgage with streamflow as a percentile from the flow-duration curve for the same day at an ungaged location. The reference streamgage is selected using map correlation, a geostatistical method in which variogram models are developed that correlate streamflow at one streamgage with streamflows at all other locations in the study area. Regression equations used to predict 17 flow-duration exceedance probabilities were developed to estimate the flow-duration curves at ungaged locations for New York using geographic information system-derived basin characteristics. A graphical user interface, with an integrated spreadsheet summary report, has been developed to estimate and display the daily mean streamflows and statistics and to evaluate different water management or water withdrawal scenarios with the estimated monthly data. This package of regression equations, U.S. Geological Survey streamgage data, and spreadsheet application produces an interactive tool to estimate an unaltered daily streamflow hydrograph and streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in New York. Among other uses, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool can assist water managers with permitting water withdrawals, implementing habitat protection, estimating contaminant loads, or determining the potential affect from chemical spills.

New York↗
USGS2016

Regional chloride distribution in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

The aquifers of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain are the principal source of water supply for the region’s nearly 20 million residents. Water quality and water levels in the aquifers, and maintenance of streamflow, are of concern because of the use of this natural resource for water supply and because of the possible effects of climate change and changes in land use on groundwater. The long-term sustainability of this natural resource is a concern at the local community scale, as well as at a regional scale, across state boundaries. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a regional assessment of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifers. An important part of this assessment is a regional interpretation of the extent of saltwater and the proximity of saltwater to fresh-groundwater resources and includes samples and published interpretations of chloride concentrations newly available since the last regional chloride assessment in 1989. This updated assessment also includes consideration of chloride samples and refined interpretations that stem from the 1994 discovery of the buried 35 million year old Chesapeake Bay impact structure that has substantially altered the understanding of the hydrogeologic framework and saltwater distribution in eastern Virginia. In this study, the regional area of concern for the chloride samples and interpretations extends from the Fall Line in the west to the outer edge of the Continental Shelf in the east and from the eastern tip of Long Island in the north to about halfway down the North Carolina coast in the south. Discussions of chloride distribution are presented for each of the 10 regional aquifer layers of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, including the offshore extents. Maps of interpreted lines of equal concentration or isochlors were manually prepared for nine of the regional aquifers; a map was not prepared for the surficial regional aquifer. The isochlor interpretations include the offshore extent of the nine regional aquifers and are presented on a 1:2,000,000 scale base map. Vertically, the chloride samples and interpretations range from deepest (oldest) to shallowest (youngest)—Potomac-Patuxent, Potomac-Patapsco, Magothy, Matawan, Monmouth-Mount Laurel, Aquia, Piney Point, Lower Chesapeake, and Upper Chesapeake regional aquifers. The approach of this study maximizes the overall density of chloride information and data by assessing relevant published interpretations, all USGS chloride samples, and all relevant offshore samples in one comprehensive interpretation. Published isochlors, where they were interpreted by regional aquifer, were used as much as possible for this regional isochlor assessment. Publication dates for the isochlors used range from 1982 to 2015, and the scales for the isochlors range from local (county or municipality) to state (sub-regional) to regional. The USGS National Water Information System database provided well sample data for the parts of aquifers that are mainly beneath the land areas and yielded 37,517 water-quality records for 1903 through 2011. Published data reports from four phases of research-related offshore coring (1976, 1993, 1997, 2009) were the main source of water-quality data for the parts of aquifers from the shoreline to the outer edge of the Continental Shelf and yielded samples from multiple depths of each of 13 cores. This study also used interpretations and offshore core data from the last regional chloride assessment (1989) which, in addition to 7 offshore cores, included water-quality data from about 500 wells, and borehole geophysics interpretations from a subset of 11 wells. All published information and data that were used in this study were considered time independent and did not assess the published interpretations or data for temporal trends. The approach used here examined only published interpretations and available chloride data, and did not directly use supplemental techniques that can provide insight into the distribution of saltwater, such as geochemical characterization, borehole geophysical information, and geochronology. Isochlor maps for this study are limited to manual interpretations of the 250-milligram per liter (mg/L) and 10,000-mg/L boundaries developed for 9 of the 10 regional aquifers that constitute the regional hydrogeologic framework of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain. For a given aquifer, the approach was to initially consider published isochlor interpretations, where available, then to modify the published interpretations, if necessary, to the extent indicated by the well and core samples. The final step was to interpolate isochlors to the full extent of each aquifer layer in areas with sufficient samples or cited interpretations, or to extrapolate isochlors in areas with no samples or where samples were sparse. The principal limitation of this study is that, because of its regional extent, data and information density can vary greatly, and thus confidence in interpretations can vary widely for onshore and offshore areas across the study area. In areas of sparse data, some samples of elevated chloride could be misinterpreted as being part of a regional elevated chloride trend, and in other cases, an elevated concentration could be misinterpreted as being of only local importance. The interpretive work of this study was applied to a 1:2,000,000 scale base map. Locations of isochlors, wells, cores, political boundaries, and shorelines are meant to be considered approximate. The isochlors presented in this study were manually interpreted for each aquifer unit as a conceptual representation of an equal concentration line approximately in the middle of an aquifer’s thickness. Differences in chloride concentration lines between the top and bottom of an aquifer could be substantial, especially for the thick parts of aquifers, but that information is not presented in this regional assessment. Although additional offshore chloride data are available compared to 27 years ago (1989), the offshore information remains sparse, resulting in less confidence in the offshore interpretations than in the onshore interpretations. Regionally, the 250- and 10,000-mg/L isochlors tend to map progressively eastward from the deepest to the shallowest aquifers across the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system but with some exceptions. The additional data, conceptual understanding, and interpretations in the vicinity of the buried Chesapeake Bay impact structure in eastern Virginia resulted in substantial refinement of isochlors in that area. Overall, the interpretations in this study are updates of the previous regional study from 1989 but do not comprise major differences in interpretation and do not indicate regional movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface since then.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗
USGS2018

UFINCH: A method for simulating unit and daily flows in networks of channels described by NHDPlus using continuous flow data at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages

The UFINCH (Unit Flows In Networks of Channels) computer application can be used to simulate daily and unit flows in networks of streams based on geospatial data in the National Hydrography Dataset NHDPlus (with value added attributes), and U.S. Geoogical Survey daily streamflow data from a downstream (or base) streamgage. Among streamflow augmentation methods, UFINCH has the unique capability to estimate time series of flows from a single base (downstream) streamgage to many upstream reaches, while conserving flows within the basin. UFINCH also provides a simple statistical model to adjust simulated flows to better match continuous flows from data at an upstream streamgage. Parameters of the statistical model are estimated using overlapping periods of record at the two streamgages, but the adjustment can be applied to all years of record available at the base streamgage. This report describes the main features of UFINCH and presents results from a sample application. Interactive graphical user interfaces and automated geographical information processing facilitate flow-data retrievals provide an intuitive environment for efficient and effective generation of flow information in a network. UFINCH is coded in the Matlab programming language and can be run in the Matlab programming environment, with supporting statistical, optimization, and mapping toolboxes, or from compiled code on a Microsoft Windows computer.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats. A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The reservoir simulation tool was used to simulate 35 single- and multiple-reservoir systems in Massachusetts over a 44-year period (water years 1961 to 2004) under two water-use scenarios. The no-pumping scenario assumes no water withdrawal pumping, and the pumping scenario incorporates average annual pumping rates from 2000 to 2004. By comparing the results of the two scenarios, the total streamflow alteration can be parsed into the portion of streamflow alteration caused by the presence of a reservoir and the additional streamflow alteration caused by the level of water use of the system. For each reservoir system, the following metrics were computed to characterize the frequency, duration, and magnitude of reservoir outflow volumes compared with unaltered streamflow conditions: (1) the median number of days per year in which the reservoir did not spill, (2) the median duration of the longest consecutive period of no-spill days per year, and (3) the lowest annual flow duration exceedance probability at which the outflows are significantly different from estimated unaltered streamflow at the 95-percent confidence level. Most reservoirs in the study do not spill during the summer months even under no-pumping conditions. The median number of days during which there was no spillage was less than 365 for all reservoirs in the study, indicating that, even under reported pumping conditions, the reservoirs refill to full volume and spill at least once during nondrought years, typically in the spring. Thirteen multiple-reservoir systems consisting of two or three hydrologically connected reservoirs were included in the study. Because operating rules used to manage multiple-reservoir systems are not available, these systems were simulated under two pumping scenarios, one in which water transfers between reservoirs are minimal and one in which reservoirs continually transferred water to intermediate or terminal reservoirs. These two scenarios provided upper and lower estimates of spillage under average pumping conditions from 2000 to 2004. For sites with insufficient data to simulate daily water balances, a proxy method to estimate the three spillage metrics was developed. A series of 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the reservoir water balance were run. In each simulation, streamflow, physical reservoir characteristics, and daily climate inputs were randomly varied. Tobit regression equations that quantify the relation between streamflow alteration and physical and operational characteristics of reservoirs were developed from the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and can be used to estimate each of the three spillage metrics using only the withdrawal ratio and the ratio of the surface area to the drainage area, which are available statewide for all reservoirs. A graphical user-interface for the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool was developed in a Microsoft Access environment. The simulation tool contains information for 70 reservoirs in Massachusetts and allows for simulation of additional scenarios than the ones considered in this report, including controlled releases, dam seepage and leakage, demand management plans, and alternative water withdrawal and transfer rules.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2017

Procedure for calculating estimated ultimate recoveries of wells in the Mississippian Barnett Shale, Bend Arch–Fort Worth Basin Province of north-central Texas

In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey published an assessment of technically recoverable continuous oil and gas resources of the Mississippian Barnett Shale in the Bend Arch–Fort Worth Basin Province of north-central Texas. Of the two assessment units involved in the overall assessment, one included a roughly equal number of oil wells and gas wells as classified by the U.S. Geological Survey’s standard of gas wells having production greater than or equal to 20,000 cubic feet of gas per barrel of oil and oil wells having production less than 20,000 cubic feet of gas per barrel of oil. As a result, estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) were calculated for both oil wells and gas wells in one of the assessment units. Generally, only gas EURs or only oil EURs are calculated for an assessment unit. These EURs were calculated with data from IHS Markit TM using DeclinePlus software in the Harmony interface and were a major component of the quantitative resource assessment. The calculated mean EURs ranged from 235 to 2,078 million cubic feet of gas and 21 to 39 thousand barrels of oil for various subsets of wells.

Texas↗
USGS2017

Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS. The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft 3/s ) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft 3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm), which is a statistically common (high probability) storm. The Big Cottonwood Creek site is downstream from the Hayden Pass Fire burn area, which dramatically altered the hydrology of the watershed and caused this statistically rare (low probability) flood from a statistically common (high probability) storm. The peak flood stage at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 50 culvert was 6,438.32 feet (ft) above the North American Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site had an estimated annual exceedance probability of 0.5505 (return period equal to the 1.8-year flood). The August 29, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm). The peak stage during this flood at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 24 bridge was 5,832.89 ft (NAVD 88). Slope-area indirect discharge measurements were carried out at the Big Cottonwood Creek and Fountain Creek sites to estimate peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood and August 29, 2016, flood, respectively. The USGS computer program Slope-Area Computation Graphical User Interface was used to compute the peak discharge by adding the surveyed cross sections with Manning roughness coefficient assignments to the high-water marks. The Manning roughness coefficients for each cross section were estimated in the field using the Cowan method.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

The U.S. Geological Survey Peak-Flow File Data Verification Project, 2008–16

Annual peak streamflow (peak flow) at a streamgage is defined as the maximum instantaneous flow in a water year. A water year begins on October 1 and continues through September 30 of the following year; for example, water year 2015 extends from October 1, 2014, through September 30, 2015. The accuracy, characterization, and completeness of the peak streamflow data are critical in determining flood-frequency estimates that are used daily to design water and transportation infrastructure, delineate flood-plain boundaries, and regulate development and utilization of lands throughout the United States and are essential to understanding the implications of climate and land-use change on flooding and high-flow conditions. As of November 14, 2016, peak-flow data existed for 27,240 unique streamgages in the United States and its territories. The data, collectively referred to as the “peak-flow file,” are available as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) public web interface, the National Water Information System, at https://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/peak . Although the data have been routinely subjected to periodic review by the USGS Office of Surface Water and screening at the USGS Water Science Center level, these data were not reviewed in a national, systematic manner until 2008 when automated scripts were developed and applied to detect potential errors in peak-flow values and their associated dates, gage heights, and peak-flow qualification codes, as well as qualification codes associated with the gage heights. USGS scientists and hydrographers studied the resulting output, accessed basic records and field notes, and corrected observed errors or, more commonly, confirmed existing data as correct. This report summarizes the changes in peak-flow file data at a national level, illustrates their nature and causation, and identifies the streamgages affected by these changes. Specifically, the peak-flow data were compared for streamgages with peak flow measured as of November 19, 2008 (before the automated scripts were widely applied) and on November 14, 2016 (after several rounds of corrections). There were 659,332 peak-flow values in the 2008 dataset and 731,965 peak-flow values in the 2016 dataset. When compared to the 2016 dataset, 5,179 (0.79 percent) peak-flow values had changed; 36,506 (5.54 percent) of the peak-flow qualification codes had changed; 1,938 (0.29 percent) peak-flow dates had changed; 18,599 (2.82 percent) of the peak-flow gage heights had changed; and 20,683 (3.14 percent) of the gage-height qualification codes had changed—most as a direct result of the peak-flow file data verification effort led by USGS personnel. The various types of changes are summarized and mapped in this report. In addition to this report, a corresponding USGS data release is provided to identify changes in peak flows at individual streamgages. The data release and the procedures to access the data release are described in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

Evaluating the potential for near-shore bathymetry on the Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, using Landsat 8 and WorldView-3 imagery

Satellite-derived near-shore bathymetry (SDB) is becoming an increasingly important method for assessing vulnerability to climate change and natural hazards in low-lying atolls of the northern tropical Pacific Ocean. Satellite imagery has become a cost-effective means for mapping near-shore bathymetry because ships cannot collect soundings safely while operating close to the shore. Also, green laser light detection and ranging (lidar) acquisitions are expensive in remote locations. Previous research has demonstrated that spectral band ratio-based techniques, commonly called the natural logarithm approach, may lead to more precise measurements and modeling of bathymetry because of the phenomenon that different substrates at the same depth have approximately equal ratio values. The goal of this research was to apply the band ratio technique to Landsat 8 at-sensor radiance imagery and WorldView-3 atmospherically corrected imagery in the coastal waters surrounding the Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, to derive near-shore bathymetry that could be incorporated into a seamless topobathymetric digital elevation model of Majuro. Attenuation of light within the water column was characterized by measuring at-sensor radiance and reflectance at different depths and calculating an attenuation coefficient. Bathymetric lidar data, collected by the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office in 2006, were used to calibrate the SDB results. The bathymetric lidar yielded a strong linear relation with water depths. The Landsat 8-derived SDB estimates derived from the blue/green band ratio exhibited a water attenuation extinction depth of 6 meters with a coefficient of determination R 2 =0.9324. Estimates derived from the coastal/red band ratio had an R 2 =0.9597. At the same extinction depth, SDB estimates derived from WorldView-3 imagery exhibited an R 2 =0.9574. Because highly dynamic coastal shorelines can be affected by erosion, wetland loss, hurricanes, sea-level rise, urban development, and population growth, consistent bathymetric data are needed to better understand sensitive coastal land/water interfaces in areas subject to coastal disasters.

Majuro Atoll↗
USGS2018

Geohydrology, geochemistry, and numerical simulation of groundwater flow and land subsidence in the Bicycle Basin, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California

Groundwater pumping from Bicycle Groundwater Basin (referred to as Bicycle Basin) in the Fort Irwin National Training Center, California, began in 1967. From 1967 to December 2010, about 46,000 acre-feet of water had been pumped from the basin and transported to the Irwin Basin. During this time, not only did water levels in the basin decline by as much as 100 feet, the quality of the groundwater pumped from the basin also deteriorated in some wells. The U.S. Geological Survey collected geohydrologic data from existing wells, test holes, and 16 additional monitoring wells installed at 6 sites in Bicycle Basin during 1992–2011 to determine the quantity and quality of groundwater available in the basin. Geophysical surveys, including electrical, gravity, and seismic refraction surveys, were completed to help determine the geometry of the structural basin, delineate depths to the interface between Quaternary and Tertiary rocks, map the depth to the water table, and used to develop a geohydrologic framework and groundwater-flow model for Bicycle Basin. Water samples were used to determine the groundwater quality in the basin and to delineate potential sources of poor-quality groundwater. Analysis of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in groundwater indicated that presentday precipitation is not a major source of recharge to the basin. Tritium and carbon-14 data indicated that most of the groundwater in the basin was recharged prior to 1952 and had an apparent age of 15,625–39,350 years. Natural recharge to the basin was not sufficient to replenish the groundwater pumped from the basin. Interferograms from synthetic aperture radar data (InSAR), analyzed to evaluate land-surface subsidence between 1993 and 2010, showed 0.23 to 1.1 feet of subsidence during this period near one production well north of Bicycle Lake (dry) playa. A groundwater-flow model of Bicycle Basin was developed and calibrated using groundwater levels for 1964– 2010, and a subsidence model using land-surface deformation data for 1993–2010. Between January 1967 and December 2010, the simulated total recharge from precipitation runoff and underflow from adjacent basins was about 5,100 acre-feet and pumpage from the Bicycle Basin was about 47,000 acrefeet of water. Total outflows exceeded natural recharge during this period, resulting in a net loss of about 42,100 acre-feet of groundwater storage in the basin. The Fort Irwin National Training Center is considering various groundwater-management options in the Bicycle Basin. The groundwater-flow model was used to (1) evaluate changes in groundwater levels and subsidence with the addition of capture and recharge of simulated runoff in retention basins (scenario 1) for predevelopment through 2010; (2) simulate a base case (scenario 2) for reference; and (3) compare projections of alternative future pumping strategies for 2011–60 (scenarios 3–5). Model results from the runoff-capture simulation (scenario 1) indicated that total recharge, including runoff captured using retention basins, locally increased water levels, which partially offset, but did not mitigate, groundwater depletion associated with pumping. Groundwater-storage depletion in scenario 1 was about 14 percent less than without runoff capture. Simulated-drawdown results in model layer 1 in the eastern part of the basin indicated that, because of the captured runoff, simulated heads were as much as 100 feet higher in December 2010 than prior to the onset of development in 1967. In contrast, simulated drawdown for model without runoff capture indicated that, without captured runoff, simulated heads for December 2010 in this area were 80–90 feet lower than during the predevelopment period. Subsidence was mitigated slightly in scenario 1 compared to without runoff capture; the largest decrease in subsidence at observation sites was about 0.07 feet.

California↗
USGS2018

Real-time streambed scour monitoring at two bridges over the Gunnison River in western Colorado, 2016–17

The Colorado Department of Transportation maintains roadways crossing over large streams and rivers where sediment transport and channel alignment changes can affect the structural stability of bridges. Structural stability during and immediately after peak streamflow can be assessed by measuring streambed scour; however, placing personnel or boats in the water during high-streamflow events using traditional methods can be difficult, hazardous, and time consuming. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Department of Transportation, installed instrumentation at two bridges in western Colorado to measure streambed elevations in real-time during snowmelt-runoff periods (May through June) in 2016 and 2017. The bridges include U.S. Highway 50 eastbound over the Gunnison River at milepost 70.0 (bridge I–04–K) and Colorado Highway 141 over the Gunnison River at milepost 153.7 (bridge I–03–A). Bridge I–04–K was outfitted with two echosounders, each mounted on the north side of pier 3. Data collected during the 2016 snowmelt runoff did not indicate scour had occurred. Data collected during 2017 snowmelt runoff indicated minor scour and fill occurred under the downstream echosounder. Bridge I–03–A was outfitted with two echosounders, each mounted on opposite sides of pier 4, at the transition of the upstream nose to the straight section of the pier wall. Data recorded during 2016 did not indicate any scour under the echosounders. Debris accumulation around the nose of the pier and under the echosounders resulted in inconsistent streambed elevation data. Data recorded during 2017 did not indicate any scour under the echosounders. Probing of the pier wall and streambed interface and underwater photographs obtained in 2016 revealed undermining along the length of the pier wall. The undermining extended side-to-side to a depth of about 2 feet. Underwater photographs were obtained again in 2017; no changes from the previous year were observed. Cross-section surveys were completed at each bridge to measure and document changes in channel geometry during the study. Surveys were performed in spring 2016 before snowmelt runoff, spring 2017 before snowmelt runoff, and fall 2017. Streambed elevations from cross-section surveys at both bridges were evaluated using two-tailed, paired t-tests and Wilcoxon rank sum tests to identify significant changes between the surveys. Both tests indicated significant changes in mean streambed elevations for the cross-sections and around the monitored piers at bridges I–04–K and I–03–A during the 2-year study.

Colorado↗
USGS2018

Flood-inundation maps for the Salamonie River at Portland, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.5-mile reach of the Salamonie River at Portland, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Salamonie River at Portland, Ind. (station 03324200). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System web interface at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (site PORI3) at https:/water.weather.gov/ahps/ . Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the current (2018) stage-discharge relation at the Salamonie River at Portland, Ind., streamgage. The hydraulic model then was used to compute nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 10.7 ft or near bankfull to 18.7 ft, which equals the highest point on the streamgage rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles then were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.49-ft root mean square error and 4.9-ft horizontal resolution resampled to a 10-ft grid to delineate the area flooded at each stage. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗
USGS2018

Methods used to estimate daily streamflow and water availability in the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator is a decision support tool that provides estimates of daily unaltered streamflow, water-use-adjusted streamflow, and water availability for ungaged, user-defined basins in Massachusetts. Daily streamflow at the ungaged site is estimated for unaltered (no water use) and water-use scenarios. The procedure for estimating streamflow was developed previously and has been implemented with minor changes and updated water-use data in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. Unaltered streamflow at selected exceedance probabilities is estimated by previously published regression equations. Streamflow is interpolated between the regressed quantiles to produce a continuous flow duration curve. A daily streamflow time series is produced for the ungaged site by relating the estimated flow duration curve at the ungaged site to a flow duration curve at a gaged reference site and then transferring the dates from the reference site to the ungaged site. Minor refinements were made to the previously published methods to estimate unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflow, including a procedure to enforce the monotonic structure of the regression-based unaltered flow quantiles, improvements to the interpolation method used for computing the estimated flow duration curve, and updates to the methods used to compute time-lagged stream alterations from groundwater pumping or discharges. Additionally, a procedure was developed to estimate prediction intervals for daily and monthly unregulated streamflow time series at an ungaged site. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using water-use data provided by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. Available water-use data included monthly withdrawal and wastewater discharge volumes from 2010 to 2014 for surface-water and groundwater sources. Water-use-adjusted streamflow represents the potential effect of current water use on natural streamflow in the basin over the range of historical hydrologic conditions. Georeferenced water withdrawal and discharge volumes were incorporated into the Massachusetts StreamStats web application for use in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. To compute water-use-adjusted streamflow, mean daily withdrawals and discharges within a user-defined basin are subtracted and added to the unaltered time series, respectively. Surface-water volumes are applied directly to the equation. Time-lagged streamflow alterations from groundwater withdrawal or wastewater discharge sources are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models in Massachusetts. The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator was updated to version 2.0 to improve software stability and usability. The version 2.0 software application was developed in Microsoft Access with a graphical user interface. All geoprocessing steps, including basin delineation and compilation of basin characteristics and water use within the basin, were completed in the Massachusetts StreamStats web application and exported for use by the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2019

A comparison of hydrocarbon-related landscape disturbance patterns along the New York-Pennsylvania border, 2004–2013

Executive Summary The New York-Pennsylvania area has a long history of hydrocarbon extraction, and the addition of shale gas extraction methods contributes to landscape disturbance borne by previously developed oil and non-shale gas resources. The main unconventional extraction method used to extract shale gas from the Marcellus Shale located in New York and Pennsylvania is hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” although other conventional methods are used extensively. All forms of hydrocarbon extraction disturb the surrounding landscape to some extent, primarily in the form of land clearance and degradation, road construction, and pipeline development, although the effects of these disturbances are not fully understood. In this study, landscape-change metrics and indicators are used to analyze change in a 10-county region along the New York-Pennsylvania border—the New York counties of Allegany, Steuben, Chemung, Tioga, and Broome, and the Pennsylvania counties of McKean, Potter, Tioga, Bradford, and Susquehanna. This 10-county region was selected due to the differences in policies between the States of New York and Pennsylvania. While fracking occurred extensively in Pennsylvania over the past 10 years or more, the State of New York issued a temporary moratorium against hydraulic fracturing in 2010—citing repercussions that might affect air quality, water quality, and public health—and officially banned hydraulic fracturing in June 2015. The quantification of landscape disturbance due to hydrocarbon extraction activities is presented in this report as land-use and land-cover (LULC) change between 2004 and 2013 and defined using specific disturbance categories (including well sites, roads, and pipelines) to compare the disturbances and changes, by county, on both sides of the New York-Pennsylvania border. The quantification was accomplished by gathering the signatures of disturbance from high-resolution aerial images, comparing the derived totals of disturbance, and then computing landscape metrics in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The collected data represent a summation of landscape disturbance from oil and gas development, as some of the data represented were established decades earlier. The Analytical Tools Interface for Landscape Assessments (ATtILA) software was used to calculate land-cover area and landscape metrics for each shale gas, non-shale gas, oil, and other infrastructure types associated with hydrocarbons across each county and both five-county regions in the study area. The three primary metrics used to describe changes in forest structure were (1)forest area, (2) interior forest area, and (3) forest edge area. The changes in metrics were subsequently evaluated using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Overall, the disturbed-area footprint in the Pennsylvania region is considerably larger than the disturbed-area footprint in the New York region (13,687.9 hectares [ha] in Pennsylvania; 3,840.5 ha in New York). Disturbance per site is similar, with 1.2 disturbed ha per site in New York and 1.6 disturbed ha per site in Pennsylvania. In the New York-Pennsylvania 10-county region, hydrocarbon-development and extraction disturbance strongly correlate with a reduction in the percentage of forest for the entire region. This observation also appears to be true in the New York five-county region for forest area. This form of disturbance in the New York five-county region shows significantly correlated changes in forest metrics (–0.4 percent total forest area), particularly in the percentage of interior forest (–1.2 percent total area) and forest edge (+0.7 percent total area). On the other hand, gas and hydrocarbon-development and extraction disturbance (1.0 percent total area) in the Pennsylvania five-county region strongly correlates with a total decline in forest area and agricultural land area (–0.8 percent combined total area) but not with either land-cover class separately.

New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2020

Numerical simulation of groundwater availability in central Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i

Since the 1990s, increased chloride concentrations of water pumped from wells (much of which is used for drinking water) and the effects of withdrawals on groundwater-dependent ecosystems have led to concerns over groundwater availability on the island of Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi. An improved understanding of the hydrologic effects of proposed groundwater withdrawals is needed to ensure effective management of the groundwater resources of Molokaʻi, plan for possible growth, and accommodate cultural, social, and economic concerns. To address the information needs of managers and community stakeholders on Molokaʻi, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical groundwater model capable of simulating salinity change and reduction in groundwater discharge in coastal areas of central and southern Molokaʻi. Estimates of groundwater recharge needed as input to the numerical groundwater model were made using a daily water budget for each decade during 1940−2012 (the period 2000−12 spanned 13 years) and the most current available data, including the distributions of monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Total island recharge during the decadal periods ranged from a low of about 189 Mgal/d during the 1970s to a high of 278 Mgal/d during the 1960s. These recharge estimates were used to develop an island-wide numerical groundwater model with simplifying assumptions (sharp interface between freshwater and saltwater; two-dimensional flow). The island-wide model provided estimates of groundwater inflows to the main area of interest simulated with a three-dimensional numerical groundwater model. Simulated withdrawal scenarios were selected in consultation with water managers and stakeholders and consisted of: (1) a baseline scenario using average recharge (1978−2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and average 2016−17 withdrawals; (2) a scenario using average recharge and withdrawals from existing wells at pending (as of January 2019) water-use permit rates; (3) six scenarios using average recharge and selected withdrawals from existing and proposed wells; and (4) a scenario using reduced recharge and selected withdrawals from existing and proposed wells. Results of the simulated withdrawal scenarios indicate that wells may be capable of producing groundwater with chloride concentrations below 250 mg/L at withdrawal rates exceeding average 2016−17 rates. However, the quality of water withdrawn from production wells is dependent on the rate and distribution of the withdrawals. For all nonbaseline scenarios, simulated groundwater discharge to the nearshore environment is reduced relative to the baseline scenario. Areas of discharge reduction may correspond to areas used for cultural or subsistence purposes. The three-dimensional numerical groundwater model developed for this study utilizes the latest available hydrologic and geologic information and is a useful tool for understanding the hydrologic effects of additional groundwater withdrawals in central Molokaʻi. The model has several limitations, including its nonuniqueness and inability to account for local-scale heterogeneities.

Hawaii↗