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Monitoring for conservation

Human-mediated environmental changes have resulted in appropriate concern for the conservation of ecological systems and have led to the development of many ecological monitoring programs worldwide. Many programs that are identified with the purpose of `surveillance? represent an inefficient use of conservation funds and effort. Here, we revisit the 1964 paper by Platt and argue that his recommendations about the conduct of science are equally relevant to the conduct of ecological monitoring programs. In particular, we argue that monitoring should not be viewed as a stand-alone activity, but instead as a component of a larger process of either conservation-oriented science or management. Corresponding changes in monitoring focus and design would lead to substantial increases in the efficiency and usefulness of monitoring results in conservation.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

Loading capacity and chromatographic behavior of a porous graphitic carbon column for polychlorinated biphenyls

A porous graphitic carbon column (Hypercarb) was used for the fractionation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) into classes of 2-4 ortho chlorines, 1 ortho chlorine and 0 ortho chlorine congeners. A method was developed that combined the fractionation of PCBs, polychlorinated dibenzo- p -dioxins and dibenzofurans in a variety of biotic environmental samples. Many of these samples have high concentrations of PCBs which cause fractionation problems as adsorption sites on the graphitic surface are occupied. The loading capacity of the column for PCBs was determined by injecting up to 1 mg of total PCBs and monitoring changes in chromatographic behavior of tetra-/di- ortho , mono- ortho and non- ortho substituted PCBs. Effective loading capacities were 1 mg for tetra-/di- ortho PCBs, but only 3–5 μg for non- ortho PCBs and about 2 μg for mono- ortho PCBs. Loading capacity of the PGC column for environmental fish and avian egg samples was determined to depend on the mono- ortho and non- ortho PCB levels found in these samples.

Journal of Chromatography A↗

Constraining controls on carbonate sequences with high-resolution chronostratigraphy: Upper Miocene, Cabo de Gata region, SE Spain

A high-resolution chronostratigraphy has been developed for Miocene shallow-water carbonate strata in the Cabo de Gata region of SE Spain for evaluation of local, regional and global factors that controlled platform architecture prior to and during the Messinian salinity crisis. Paleomagnetic data were collected from strata at three localities. Mean natural remanent magnetization (NRM) ranges between 1.53 ?? 10-8 and 5.2 ?? 10-3 Am2/kg. Incremental thermal and alternating field demagnetization isolated the characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM). Rock magnetic studies show that the dominant magnetic mineral is magnetite, but mixtures of magnetite and hematite occur. A composite chronostratigraphy was derived from five stratigraphic sections. Regional stratigraphic data, biostratigraphic data, and an 40Ar/39Ar date of 8.5 ?? 0.1 Ma, for an interbedded volcanic flow, place the strata in geomagnetic polarity Chrons C4r to C3r. Sequence-stratigraphic and diagenetic evidence indicate a major unconformity at the base of depositional sequence (DS)3 that contains a prograding reef complex, suggesting that approximately 250 000 yr of record (Subchrons C3Br.2r to 3Br.1r) are missing near the Messinian-Tortonian boundary. Correlation to the GPTS shows that the studied strata represent five third- to fourth-order DSs. Basal units are temperate to subtropical ramps (DS1A, DS1B, DS2); these are overlain by subtropical to tropical reefal platforms (DS3), which are capped by subtropical to tropical cyclic carbonates (Terminal Carbonate Complex, TCC). Correlation of the Cabo de Gata record to the Melilla area of Morocco, and the Sorbas basin of Spain indicate that early - Late Tortonian ramp strata from these areas are partially time-equivalent. Similar strata are extensively developed in the Western Mediterranean and likely were influenced by a cool climate or influx of nutrients during an overall rise in global sea-level. After ramp deposition, a sequence boundary (SB3) in Cabo de Gata correlates with a sequence boundary in Morocco and a published third-order eustatic fall suggesting at least a partial eustatic control for the sequence boundary. Coral reefs began to develop earlier in Cabo de Gata than at Melilla or Sorbas, arguing for local factors affecting this major environmental transition. Later Messinian reefs (DS3) from all areas are time-equivalent, suggesting a regional or global control on their formation. Some Halimeda-rich horizons in the Western Mediterranean are not time-equivalent event strata as hypothesized by others. Correlation of the relative sea-level curve for the fringing reef complex (DS3) with a published eustatic curve suggests at least a partial third-order global eustatic control for the highstand part of the sequence. Downstepping DS3 reefs and initial subaerial exposure of earlier DS3 reef strata approximately correlate with initiation of a series of subaerial unconformities in the South Pacific. The longer-term relative fall in sea-level during DS3 downstepping reef progradation does not correlate with a published third-order eustatic fall. Eustatic sea-level fluctuations may have been associated with initiation of the Mediterranean Messinian salinity crisis, but the longer-term fall may have been linked to tectonic uplift in the Mediterranean region. Widespread distribution of 'TCC-style' cycles of approximately the same age suggests a regional (Western Mediterranean) or global control on sea-level change responsible for TCC cycles. In addition, four subaerial exposure-capped TCC cycles may correlate with similar subaerial unconformities in the South Pacific, suggesting at least a partial eustatic control on TCC cyclicity. The high rates of relative sea-level change needed to generate a minimum of 25-30 m sea-level changes associated with each cycle are consistent with glacio-eustacy along with rapid evaporitic drawdown in the Mediterranean. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

Adaptable plasmonic membrane sensors for fast and reliable detection of trace low micrometer microplastics in lake water

In freshwater environments, low-micrometer microplastics (LMMPs) have captured significant attention due to their prevalence and toxicity. Yet, rapid detection of LMMPs (1–10 μm) at the single-particle level within complex freshwater matrices remains a hurdle. We developed an adaptable plasmonic membrane sensor for fast detection of individual LMMPs in eutrophic lake waters. The plasmonic membrane sensor functions both as a membrane filter and as a sensor for LMMP collection and analysis. Among the four types of membrane sensors, polycarbonate track-etch (PCTE) membrane sensors exhibit superior imaging quality for LMMPs due to their flat and homogeneous surfaces. Besides the significantly improved imaging contrast and reduced background interferences, the Raman intensity of LMMPs is enhanced by 48% ± 25% on PCTE membrane sensors compared to unmodified membranes. The increased Raman intensities of a chemical probe with an increasing gold layer thickness and a decreasing membrane pore size suggest a surface-enhanced Raman scattering effect from the membrane sensors. The membrane sensors achieve a detection limit of 1 μg/L and an ultrafast scanning time of 0.01 s for individual LMMPs across natural eutrophic lake water. The developed membrane sensors offer an adaptable tool for the swift and reliable detection of individual LMMPs in complex environmental matrices.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

Assessing the feasibility of satellite-based thresholds for hydrologically driven landsliding

Elevated soil moisture and heavy precipitation contribute to landslides worldwide. These environmental variables are now being resolved with satellites at spatiotemporal scales that could offer new perspectives on the development of landslide warning systems. However, the application of these data to hydro-meteorological thresholds (which account for antecedent soil moisture and rainfall) first need to be evaluated with respect to proven, direct measurement-based thresholds that use rain gauges and in situ soil moisture sensors. Here, we compare ground-based hydrologic data to overlapping satellite-based data before, during, and after a recent season of widespread shallow landsliding in the San Francisco Bay Area (California, USA). We then explore how the remotely sensed information could be used to empirically define hypothetical thresholds for shallow landsliding. We find that the ground-based thresholds developed with a single monitoring station show superior performance because the in situ soil saturation data better reflect the gravity-dominated subsurface flow conditions that are characteristic of hillslopes during the rainy season. Although the satellite-based thresholds can identify most of the landslide days, they include a greater number of false alarms due to overestimates of soil moisture between major storm events. To avoid the type of false alarms that are characteristic of our satellite-based thresholds, further post-processing of the near-surface hydrologic response data to better reflect gravity-dominated drainage should be integrated into satellite-based model outputs. Our results encourage further deployment of ground stations in landslide-prone terrain and cautious exploration of satellite-based hydro-meteorological thresholds where in situ networks are nonexistent.

California↗

Diversity, composition, and geographical distribution of microbial communities in California salt marsh sediments

The Pacific Estuarine Ecosystem Indicators Research Consortium seeks to develop bioindicators of toxicant-induced stress and bioavailability for wetland biota. Within this framework, the effects of environmental and pollutant variables on microbial communities were studied at different spatial scales over a 2-year period. Six salt marshes along the California coastline were characterized using phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP) analysis. Additionally, 27 metals, six currently used pesticides, total polychlorinated biphenyls and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, chlordanes, nonachlors, dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane, and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene were analyzed. Sampling was performed over large (between salt marshes), medium (stations within a marsh), and small (different channel depths) spatial scales. Regression and ordination analysis suggested that the spatial variation in microbial communities exceeded the variation attributable to pollutants. PLFA analysis and TRFLP canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) explained 74 and 43% of the variation, respectively, and both methods attributed 34% of the variation to tidal cycles, marsh, year, and latitude. After accounting for spatial variation using partial CCA, we found that metals had a greater effect on microbial community composition than organic pollutants had. Organic carbon and nitrogen contents were positively correlated with PLFA biomass, whereas total metal concentrations were positively correlated with biomass and diversity. Higher concentrations of heavy metals were negatively correlated with branched PLFAs and positively correlated with methyl- and cyclo-substituted PLFAs. The strong relationships observed between pollutant concentrations and some of the microbial indicators indicated the potential for using microbial community analyses in assessments of the ecosystem health of salt marshes. Copyright ?? 2006, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗

Development of a soil conservation standard and guidelines for OHV recreation management in California

In 2004, the California State Parks (CSP) agency contracted with the California Geological Survey (CGS) to update the 1991 Soil Conservation Guide-lines/Standards for Off-Highway Vehicle (OHV) Recreation Management. Per state legislation, the 1991 standards were updated to establish a generic and measurable standard at least sufficient to allow restoration of OHV areas and trails. Given the rapid increase in OHV use in California, the updated Soil Conservation Standard and Guidelines for OHV Recreation Management also allowed for sustainability of trail systems and recreation opportunities. A key part of the update was interaction with stakeholders, agencies, and other interest groups through public workshops and a Consulting Agency Review Committee composed of representatives from the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Geological Survey, California Department of Conservation, and CSP. CGS also assessed proposed revisions in three representative OHV areas to ensure that the updated Standard and Guidelines provided sufficient flexibility to allow their application to all sites state-wide, ecosystems with multiple geology and soils types, and a variety of vehicle uses. While geology was not the only basis for the guideline revisions, it was a major factor. CGS staff also had the breadth of knowledge and experience in engineering geology, hydrogeology, road and trail construction, erosion control, and OHV riding necessary to coordinate and develop the multidisciplinary and multi-stakeholder effort.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗

Catalog of US GeoData

The development of geographic information systems (GIS) is a rapidly growing industry that supports natural resources, studies, land management, environmental analysis, and urban and transporation planning. The increasing use of computers for storing and analyzing earth science information has greatly expanded the demand for digital cartographic and geographic data. Digital cartography involves the collection, storage, processing, analysis, and display of map data with the aid of computers. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Nation's largest earth science research agency, through its National Mapping Program, has expanded digital cartography operations to include the collection of elevation, planimetric, land use and land cover, and geographic names information in digital form. This digital information is available on 9-track magnetic tapes and, in the case of 1:2,000,000-scale planimetric digital line graph data, in Compact Disc Read Only Memory (CD-ROM) format. Digital information can be used with all types of geographic and land information systems.

General Information Product↗

The importance of U.S. Geological Survey water-quality super gages

Super gages are an important tool providing real-time, continuous water-quality data at streamgages or groundwater wells. They are designed to address specific water-resource threats such as water-related human health issues including harmful algal blooms, floods, droughts, and hazardous substance spills. In addition, super gages improve our understanding of the effects land-use practices have on critical water resources. Super gage data allow the development of surrogates, a continuous in-stream sensor measurement used to estimate something of greater interest to environmental managers, to be modeled and reported in near real-time concentrations and loads. This fact sheet presents some of the ways water-quality data from a USGS super gage network benefits all of us.

Fact Sheet↗

A probabilistic assessment methodology for the evaluation of geologic carbon dioxide storage

In 2007, the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110-140) authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy. The first year of that activity was specified for development of a methodology to estimate storage potential that could be applied uniformly to geologic formations across the United States. After its release, the methodology was to receive public comment and external expert review. An initial methodology was developed and published in March 2009 (Burruss and others, 2009), and public comments were received. The report was then sent to a panel of experts for external review. The external review report was received by the USGS in December 2009. This report is in response to those external comments and reviews and describes how the previous assessment methodology (Burruss and others, 2009) was revised. The resource that is assessed is the technically accessible storage resource, which is defined as the mass of CO 2 that can be stored in the pore volume of a storage formation. The methodology that is presented in this report is intended to be used for assessments at scales ranging from regional to subbasinal in which storage assessment units are defined on the basis of common geologic and hydrologic characteristics. The methodology does not apply to site-specific evaluation of storage resources or capacity.

Open-File Report↗

USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change. There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy (2007). When science strategies that cover these other components are developed, coordinated implementation will be necessary to achieve Bureau-level synergies and optimize capabilities and expertise. In October 2010, USGS realigned its management and budget structure to implement its 2007 Science Strategy. The new organizational structure, in which “Global Change” is one of seven key mission areas, lends itself to the advancement of the established six strategic goals. USGS global change science is formally represented by the “Climate and Land-Use Change” Mission Area in the FY 2012 budget (USGS, 2011). This plan was developed by the USGS Global Change Science Strategy Planning Team (SSPT) appointed by the USGS Director on March 4, 2010 and charged with developing a Global Change Science Strategy for the coming decade (McNutt, 2010). USGS managers and science staff are the main audience for this science strategy. This document is also intended to serve as the foundation for consistent USGS collaboration and communication with partners and stakeholders.

Open-File Report↗

Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California

Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast; scenario-specific, tsunami evacuation “playbook” maps and guidance in-harbor hazard maps and offshore safety zones for potential boat evacuation during future distant source events; “probability-based” products for land-use planning under the California Seismic Hazard Mapping Act; and an expansion of real-time and post-tsunami field reconnaissance teams and information sharing through a state-wide clearinghouse. The state tsunami program has benefitted greatly from participation in the SAFRR tsunami scenario process, and hopes to continue this relationship with the U.S. Geological Survey to help improve tsunami preparedness in California.

California↗

Geographic information system programs for use in the water-supply-allocation permitting process

Computer programs designed for use in a geographic information system as an aid in the water-supply- allocation permitting process are described. These programs were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey during a project conducted in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. The programs enable a user to display proposed water-supply-allocation sites in a defined area together with present sites and important hydrologic and geographic features on a computer screen or on hardcopy plots. The programs are menu-driven and do not require familiarity with geographic information systems. Source codes for the programs are included in appendixes.

Open-File Report↗

Simulation of conservative-constituent transport in the Red River of the North Basin, North Dakota and Minnesota, 2003-04

Population growth along with possible future droughts in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin will create an increasing need for reliable water supplies. Therefore, as a result of the Dakota Water Resources Act of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation identified eight water-supply alternatives (including a no-action alternative) to meet future water needs in the basin. Because of concerns about the possible effects of the alternatives on water quality in the Red River and the Sheyenne River and in Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba, the Bureau of Reclamation needs to prepare an environmental impact statement that describes the specific environmental effects of each alternative. To provide information for the environmental impact statement, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, conducted a study to develop and apply a water-quality model, hereinafter referred to as the Red River water-quality model, to part of the Red River and the Sheyenne River to simulate conservative-constituent transport in the Red River Basin. The Red River water-quality model is a one-dimensional, steady-state flow and transport model for selected constituents in the Red River and the Sheyenne River. The model simulates the flow and transport of total dissolved solids, sulfate, and chloride during steady-state conditions. The physical model domain includes the Red River from the confluence of the Bois de Sioux and Otter Tail Rivers to the Red River at Emerson, Manitoba, and the Sheyenne River from above Harvey, N. Dak., to the confluence with the Red River. The Red River water-quality model was calibrated and tested using data collected at 34 sites from September 15 through 16, 2003, and from May 10 through 13, 2004. Water-quality samples were collected during low, steady-flow conditions from September 15 through 16, 2003, and during medium, unsteady-flow conditions from May 10 through 13, 2004. The simulated total dissolved-solids, sulfate, and chloride concentrations generally were within 5 percent of the measured concentrations. The Red River water-quality model was used to simulate conservative-constituent transport in the Red River and the Sheyenne River for the eight water-supply alternatives identified by the Bureau of Reclamation. For the first set of eight simulations, September 2003 streamflows were used with projected 2050 return flows and withdrawals. For the second set of eight simulations, the September 2003 streamflows were reduced by 25 percent. The simulated concentrations for three of the alternatives generally were lower than for the no-action alternative. Of those alternatives, one would result in a decrease in concentrations for two constituents, one would result in a decrease in concentrations for all three constituents, and one would result in a decrease in concentrations for one constituent and an increase in concentrations for another constituent. For four of the alternatives, the differences between the mean simulated concentrations were less than calibration errors, indicating the effects of those alternatives on water quality in the rivers is uncertain. The effects of reduced streamflow on simulated total dissolved-solids, sulfate, and chloride concentrations were greatest for alternative 2. Reduced streamflow probably has an effect on simulated total dissolved-solids concentrations for alternatives 2, 3, 5, and 7 and on simulated sulfate concentrations for alternatives 2 and 5. Except for alternative 2, reduced streamflow had little effect on simulated chloride concentrations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Monitoring and modeling to predict Escherichia coli at Presque Isle Beach 2, City of Erie, Erie County, Pennsylvania

The Lake Erie shoreline in Pennsylvania spans nearly 40 miles and is a valuable recreational resource for Erie County. Nearly 7 miles of the Lake Erie shoreline lies within Presque Isle State Park in Erie, Pa. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria at permitted Presque Isle beaches occasionally exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard, resulting in unsafe swimming conditions and closure of the beaches. E. coli concentrations and other water-quality and environmental data collected at Presque Isle Beach 2 during the 2004 and 2005 recreational seasons were used to develop models using tobit regression analyses to predict E. coli concentrations. All variables statistically related to E. coli concentrations were included in the initial regression analyses, and after several iterations, only those explanatory variables that made the models significantly better at predicting E. coli concentrations were included in the final models. Regression models were developed using data from 2004, 2005, and the combined 2-year dataset. Variables in the 2004 model and the combined 2004-2005 model were log10 turbidity, rain weight, wave height (calculated), and wind direction. Variables in the 2005 model were log10 turbidity and wind direction. Explanatory variables not included in the final models were water temperature, streamflow, wind speed, and current speed; model results indicated these variables did not meet significance criteria at the 95-percent confidence level (probabilities were greater than 0.05). The predicted E. coli concentrations produced by the models were used to develop probabilities that concentrations would exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters. Analysis of the exceedence probabilities helped determine a threshold probability for each model, chosen such that the correct number of exceedences and nonexceedences was maximized and the number of false positives and false negatives was minimized. Future samples with computed exceedence probabilities higher than the selected threshold probability, as determined by the model, will likely exceed the E. coli standard and a beach advisory or closing may need to be issued; computed exceedence probabilities lower than the threshold probability will likely indicate the standard will not be exceeded. Additional data collected each year can be used to test and possibly improve the model. This study will aid beach managers in more rapidly determining when waters are not safe for recreational use and, subsequently, when to issue beach advisories or closings.

Pennsylvania↗

Lakes and reservoirs—Guidelines for study design and sampling

The “National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data” (NFM) is an online report with separately published chapters that provides the protocols and guidelines by which U.S. Geological Survey personnel obtain the data used to assess the quality of the Nation’s surface-water and groundwater resources. Chapter A10 reviews limnological principles, describes the characteristics that distinguish lakes from reservoirs, and provides guidance for developing temporal and spatial sampling strategies and data-collection approaches to be used in lake and reservoir environmental investigations. Within this chapter are references to other chapters of the NFM that provide more detailed guidelines related to specific topics and more detailed protocols for the quality assurance and assessment of the lake and reservoir data. Protocols and procedures to address and document the quality of lake and reservoir investigations are adapted from, or referenced to, the protocols and standard operating procedures contained in related chapters of this NFM. Before 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data” (NFM) chapters were released in the USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations series. Effective in 2018, new and revised NFM chapters are being released in the USGS Techniques and Methods series; this series change does not affect the content and format of the NFM. More information is in the general introduction to the NFM (USGS Techniques and Methods, book 9, chapter A0, 2018) at https://doi.org/10.3133/tm9A0 . The authoritative current versions of NFM chapters are available in the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov . Comments, questions, and suggestions related to the NFM can be addressed to nfm-owq@usgs.gov .

Techniques and Methods↗

A geomorphic-process-based cellular automata model of colluvial wedge morphology and stratigraphy

The development of colluvial wedges at the base of fault scarps following normal-faulting earthquakes serves as a sedimentary record of paleoearthquakes and is thus crucial in assessing seismic hazard. Although there is a large body of observations of colluvial wedge development, connecting this knowledge to the physics of sediment transport can open new frontiers in our understanding. To explore theoretical colluvial wedge evolution, we develop a cellular automata model driven by the production and disturbance (e.g., bioturbative reworking) of mobile regolith and fault-scarp collapse. We consider both 90 and 60 ∘ dipping faults and allow the colluvial wedges to develop over 2000 model years. By tracking sediment transport time, velocity, and provenance, we classify cells into analogs for the debris and wash sedimentary facies commonly described in paleoseismic studies. High values of mobile regolith production and disturbance rates produce relatively larger and more wash-facies-dominated wedges, whereas lower values produced relatively smaller, debris-facies-dominated wedges. Higher lateral collapse rates lead to more debris facies relative to wash facies. Many of the modeled colluvial wedges fully developed within 2000 model years after the earthquake, with many being much faster when process rates are high. Finally, for scenarios with the same amount of vertical displacement, differently sized colluvial wedges developed depending on the rates of geomorphic processes and fault dip. A change in these variables, say by environmental change such as precipitation rates, could theoretically result in different colluvial wedge facies assemblages for the same characteristic earthquake rupture scenario. Finally, the stochastic nature of collapse events, when coupled with high disturbance, illustrates that multiple phases of colluvial deposition are theoretically possible for a single earthquake event.

Earth Surface Dynamics↗

A review and synthesis of recreation ecology research supporting carrying capacity and visitor use management decisionmaking

Resource and experiential impacts associated with visitation to wilderness and other similar backcountry settings have long been addressed by land managers under the context of “carrying capacity” decisionmaking. Determining a maximum level of allowable use, below which high-quality resource and experiential conditions would be sustained, was an early focus in the 1960s and 1970s. However, decades of recreation ecology research have shown that the severity and areal extent of visitor impact problems are influenced by an interrelated array of use-related, environmental, and managerial factors. This complexity, with similar findings from social science research, prompted scientists and managers to develop more comprehensive carrying capacity frameworks, including a new Visitor Use Management framework. These frameworks rely on a diverse array of management strategies and actions, often termed a “management toolbox,” for resolving visitor impact problems. This article reviews the most recent and relevant recreation ecology studies that have been applied in wildland settings to avoid or minimize resource impacts. The key findings and their management implications are highlighted to support the professional management of common trail, recreation site, and wildlife impact problems. These studies illustrate the need to select from a more diverse array of impact management strategies and actions based on an evaluation of problems to identify the most influential factors that can be manipulated.

Journal of Forestry↗