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USGS2000

The importance of ground water in the Great Lakes Region

Ground water is a major natural resource in the Great Lakes Region because it indirectly contributes more than 50 percent of the stream discharge to the Great Lakes. In addition, ground water is the source of drinking water for millions of people in the region, is an important source of supply for agriculture and many industries, and provides a relatively uniform supply of water in some ecologically sensitive areas to sustain plant and animal species. Therefore, to improve our understanding of water-resources issues in the Great Lakes Region, it is important to have a better understanding of the role that ground water plays in the overall hydrologic system of the lakes. The main ground-water resources issues in the Great Lakes Region are related to the amount of ground water, the interaction of ground water and surface water, changes in ground-water quality as development expands, and ecosystem health related to quantity and quality of water. Issues related to the amount of ground water Although the amount of water in the Great Lakes Region is vast, issues related to relatively small quantities of water are being raised more and more often. For example, even though the amount of ground water pumped in the region is small compared to the total amount of water present, ground water is an important source of public-water supply as well as an important source of supply for industrial, agricultural, and domestic needs. Less clearly understood, however, is the relation between the amount of streamflow discharging to the Great Lakes and the large portion of that flow that originates as ground water. The implications of this understanding for water- and land-use practices and, in turn, their effects on water quantity and quality, have not been fully incorporated into a policy framework. To help include information about the implications of the role that ground water plays in addressing regional water issues, a comprehensive analysis of indirect ground-water discharge to the Great Lakes is needed. Direct ground-water discharge to the Great Lakes is not a large factor in water-budget analyses for the Great Lakes. Locally, however, direct ground-water discharge to the Great Lakes may be important, even though the rates and places of discharge are not well known. A long-term evaluation of direct ground-water discharge to the Great Lakes would help place this hydrologic process in proper perspective. Near-shore areas with high rates of direct ground-water discharge may provide valuable habitat for aquatic organisms. Issues related to the interaction of ground water and surface water Withdrawal of ground water removes that water from the watershed when it is consumptively used or when the return flow is discharged to another drainage basin. Under these circumstances, pumping ground water constitutes a diversion of Great Lakes water. Alternatively, ground-water withdrawal could have the opposite effect of diverting ground-water flow into the watershed by altering the ground-water divides. In particular, as withdrawals associated with urban expansion increase, more accurate data on the amount and effects of ground-water use need to be collected. Data on the amounts of ground water pumped both within the watershed and outside, but near the watershed boundaries needs to be collected and evaluated for potential diversion of water to or from the Great Lakes. It is currently thought that both irrigation and ground-water withdrawals near the watershed boundaries constitute relatively small amounts of water; however, both rapidly changing farming practices and rapidly expanding urban communities could alter these amounts in a relatively short timeframe, especially during drought periods. At present, the effects of ground-water withdrawals have been quantified in detail at only a few urban locations. In addition to quantifying the amount of water pumped out of aquifers, it is also important to improve our knowledge of the amount of water that is recharging them. Ground-water recharge rates estimated in earlier studies cover only a small part of the Great Lakes Region. A comprehensive study of ground-water recharge rates for the entire watershed is needed to more completely determine the role of ground water in the hydrologic budget of the Great Lakes. Issues related to changes in ground-water quality as development expands Ground-water quality is as important as quantity for most water uses. As ground-water development proceeds, the possibility of altering the quality of ground water increases. The quality of ground water can be altered when water levels are drawn below the layer that confines the aquifer or by inducing water of lesser quality into an aquifer. Many local studies of these problems have been conducted, but few regional-scale analyses of changes in ground-water quality as a result of ground-water development have been done. Issues related to ecosystem health and quantity and quality of ground water Ground water is essential to maintain wetlands and to provide healthy habitat for other aquatic systems. Wetland hydrology is widely recognized as the primary influence on wetland ecology, development, and persistence, and information about hydrology is essential to understanding and quantifying wetland functions and processes. Studies of the role of ground water in selected wetlands in a range of physiographic settings throughout the Great Lakes watershed are needed to more fully understand the role of wetlands in the Great Lakes Region.

Lake Erie, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Ontario↗

USGS2009

Trend estimation in populations with imperfect detection

1. Trends of animal populations are of great interest in ecology but cannot be directly observed owing to imperfect detection. Binomial mixture models use replicated counts to estimate abundance, corrected for detection, in demographically closed populations. Here, we extend these models to open populations and illustrate them using sand lizard Lacerta agilis counts from the national Dutch reptile monitoring scheme. 2. Our model requires replicated counts from multiple sites in each of several periods, within which population closure is assumed. Counts are described by a hierarchical generalized linear model, where the state model deals with spatio-temporal patterns in true abundance and the observation model with imperfect counts, given that true state. We used WinBUGS to fit the model to lizard counts from 208 transects with 1–10 (mean 3) replicate surveys during each spring 1994–2005. 3. Our state model for abundance contained two independent log-linear Poisson regressions on year for coastal and inland sites, and random site effects to account for unexplained heterogeneity. The observation model for detection of an individual lizard contained effects of region, survey date, temperature, observer experience and random survey effects. 4. Lizard populations increased in both regions but more steeply on the coast. Detectability increased over the first few years of the study, was greater on the coast and for the most experienced observers, and highest around 1 June. Interestingly, the population increase inland was not detectable when the observed counts were analysed without account of detectability. The proportional increase between 1994 and 2005 in total lizard abundance across all sites was estimated at 86% (95% CRI 35–151). 5. Synthesis and applications . Open-population binomial mixture models are attractive for studying true population dynamics while explicitly accounting for the observation process, i.e. imperfect detection. We emphasize the important conceptual benefit provided by temporal replicate observations in terms of the interpretability of animal counts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2021

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina↗

USGS2013

The simulated effects of wastewater-management actions on the hydrologic system and nitrogen-loading rates to wells and ecological receptors, Popponesset Bay Watershed, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

The discharge of excess nitrogen into Popponesset Bay, an estuarine system on western Cape Cod, has resulted in eutrophication and the loss of eel grass habitat within the estuaries. Septic-system return flow in residential areas within the watershed is the primary source of nitrogen. Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nitrogen have been assigned to the six estuaries that compose the system, and local communities are in the process of implementing the TMDLs by the partial sewering, treatment, and disposal of treated wastewater at wastewater-treatment facilities (WTFs). Loads of waste-derived nitrogen from both current (1997–2001) and future sources can be estimated implicitly from parcel-scale water-use data and recharge areas delineated by a groundwater-flow model. These loads are referred to as “instantaneous” loads because it is assumed that the nitrogen from surface sources is delivered to receptors instantaneously and that there is no traveltime through the aquifer. The use of a solute-transport model to explicitly simulate the transport of mass through the aquifer from sources to receptors can improve implementation of TMDLs by (1) accounting for traveltime through the aquifer, (2) avoiding limitations associated with the estimation of loads from static recharge areas, (3) accounting more accurately for the effect of surface waters on nitrogen loads, and (4) determining the response of waste-derived nitrogen loads to potential wastewater-management actions. The load of nitrogen to Popponesset Bay on western Cape Cod, which was estimated by using current sources as input to a solute-transport model based on a steady-state flow model, is about 50 percent of the instantaneous load after about 7 years of transport (loads to estuary are equal to loads discharged from sources); this estimate is consistent with simulated advective traveltimes in the aquifer, which have a median of 5 years. Model-calculated loads originating from recharge areas reach 80 percent of the instantaneous load within 30 years; this result indicates that loads estimated from recharge areas likely are reasonable for estimating current instantaneous loads. However, recharge areas are assumed to remain static as stresses and hydrologic conditions change in response to wastewater-management actions. Sewering of the Popponesset Bay watershed would not change hydraulic gradients and recharge areas to receptors substantially; however, disposal of wastewater from treatment facilities can change hydraulic gradients and recharge areas to nearby receptors, particularly if the facilities are near the boundary of the recharge area. In these cases, nitrogen loads implicitly estimated by using current recharge areas that do not accurately represent future hydraulic stresses can differ significantly from loads estimated with recharge areas that do represent those stresses. Nitrogen loads to two estuaries in the Popponesset Bay system estimated by using recharge areas delineated for future hydrologic conditions and nitrogen sources were about 3 and 9 times higher than loads estimated by using current recharge areas; for this reason, reliance on static recharge areas can present limitations for effective TMDL implementation by means of a hypothetical, but realistic, wastewater-management action. A solute-transport model explicitly represents nitrogen transport from surface sources and does not rely on the use of recharge areas; because changes in gradients resulting from wastewater-management actions are accounted for in transport simulations, they provide more reliable predictions of future nitrogen loads. Explicitly representing the mass transport of nitrogen can better account for the mechanisms by which nitrogen enters the estuary and improve estimates of the attenuation of nitrogen concentrations in fresh surface waters. Water and associated nitrogen can enter an estuary as either direct groundwater discharge or as surface-water inflow. Two estuaries in the Popponesset Bay watershed receive surface-water inflows: Shoestring Bay receives water from the Santuit River, and the tidal reach of the Mashpee River receives water (and associated nitrogen) from the nontidal reach of the Mashpee River. Much of the water discharging into these streams passes through ponds prior to discharge. The additional attenuation of nitrogen in groundwater that has passed through a pond and discharged into a stream prior to entering an estuary is about 3 kilograms per day. Advective-transport times in the aquifer generally are small—median traveltimes are about 4.5 years—and nitrogen loads at receptors respond quickly to wastewater-management actions. The simulated decreases in nitrogen loads were 50 and 80 percent of the total decreases within 5 and 15 years, respectively, after full sewering of the watershed and within 3 and 10 years, for sequential phases of partial sewering and disposal at WTFs. The results show that solute-transport models can be used to assess the responses of nitrogen loads to wastewater-management actions, and that loads at ecological receptors (receiving waters—ponds, streams or coastal waters—that support ecosystems) will respond within a few years to those actions. The responses vary for individual receptors as functions of hydrologic setting, traveltimes in the aquifer, and the unique set of nitrogen sources representing current and future wastewater-disposal actions within recharge areas. Changes in nitrogen loads from groundwater discharge to individual estuaries range from a decrease of 90 percent to an increase of 80 percent following sequential phases of hypothetical but realistic wastewater-management actions. The ability to explicitly represent the transport of mass through the aquifer allows for the evaluation of complex responses that include the effects of surface waters, traveltimes, and complex changes in sources. Most of the simulated decreases in nitrogen loads to Shoestring Bay and the tidal portion of the Mashpee River, 79 and 69 percent, respectively, were caused by decreases in the nitrogen loads from surface-water inflow.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2016

Quantifying resilience

The biosphere is under unprecedented pressure, reflected in rapid changes in our global ecological, social, technological and economic systems. In many cases, ecological and social systems can adapt to these changes over time, but when a critical threshold is surpassed, a system under stress can undergo catastrophic change and reorganize into a different state. The concept of resilience, introduced more than 40 years ago in the ecological sciences, captures the behaviour of systems that can occur in alternative states. The original definition of resilience forwarded by Holling ( 1973 ) is still the most useful. It defines resilience as the amount of disturbance that a system can withstand before it shifts into an alternative stable state. The idea of alternative stable states has clear and profound implications for ecological management. Coral reefs, for example, are high-diversity systems that provide key ecosystem services such as fisheries and coastal protection. Human impacts are causing significant, ongoing reef degradation, and many reefs have shifted from coral- to algal-dominated states in response to anthropogenic pressures such as elevated water temperatures and overfishing. Understanding and differentiating between the factors that help maintain reefs in coral-dominated states vs. those that facilitate a shift to an undesired algal-dominated state is a critical step towards sound management and conservation of these, and other, important social–ecological systems. Resilience has gained popularity among both academicians and laypeople, as a term meant to describe a systems’ ability to withstand disturbance. Resilience has become a buzzword in the last decade, as shown by its increasing appearance in calls for research proposals and scientific citation data bases. The term resilience has in many cases lost the clarity of the original definition and in fact is frequently used in a manner in direct opposition to the original definition. Many current uses of the concept are loose and incorrect. The term is becoming increasingly used in a normative sense (Brand & Jax 2007 ), as if resilience were a desirable quality of systems. However, even systems in highly undesirable states, such as macro-algae dominated reefs, or city cores in poverty traps, may be highly resilient, which is to say they withstand attempts to transform them into different (desirable) states. Operationalizing the concept of resilience for application and management has been difficult. Misuse of the term can have significant negative impacts, because resilience is being used to help guide responses to natural disasters and to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and urban systems and has been driving international research priorities. Resilience has been argued to be a basic emergent property of systems, a process or a rate. We focus on the original concept as described by Holling, which is that of an emergent system property; when a system is in a desirable state and managers wish to enhance resilience, or when the system is in an undesirable state and managers wish to erode resilience and foster a transformation to an alternative state. Fostering or eroding resilience is a process. When a system is perturbed but resilience is not exceeded, then the recovery can be measured as a rate. Several frameworks to operationalize resilience have been proposed. A decade ago, a special feature focused on quantifying resilience was published in the journal Ecosystems (Carpenter, Westley & Turner 2005 ). The approach there was towards identifying surrogates of resilience, but few of the papers proposed quantifiable metrics. Consequently, many ecological resilience frameworks remain vague and difficult to quantify, a problem that this special feature aims to address. However, considerable progress has been made during the last decade (e.g. Pope, Allen & Angeler 2014 ). Although some argue that resilience is best kept as an unquantifiable, vague concept (Quinlan et al . 2016 ), to be useful for managers, there must be concrete guidance regarding how and what to manage and how to measure success (Garmestani, Allen & Benson 2013 ; Spears et al . 2015 ). Ideas such as ‘resilience thinking’ have utility in helping stakeholders conceptualize their systems, but provide little guidance on how to make resilience useful for ecosystem management, other than suggesting an ambiguous, Goldilocks approach of being just right (e.g. diverse, but not too diverse; connected, but not too connected). Here, we clarify some prominent resilience terms and concepts, introduce and synthesize the papers in this special feature on quantifying resilience and identify core unanswered questions related to resilience.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2011

A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2017

What determines water temperature dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

Water temperature is an important factor determining estuarine species habitat conditions. Water temperature is mainly governed by advection (e.g., from rivers) and atmospheric exchange processes varying strongly over time (day-night, seasonally) and the spatial domain. On a long time scale, climate change will impact water temperature in estuarine systems due to changes in river flow regimes, air temperature, and sea level rise. To determine which factors govern estuarine water temperature and its sensitivity to changes in its forcing, we developed a process-based numerical model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh) and applied it to a well-monitored estuarine system (the San Francisco Estuary) for validation. The process-based approach allows for detailed process description and a physics-based analysis of governing processes. The model was calibrated for water year 2011 and incorporated 3-D hydrodynamics, salinity intrusion, water temperature dynamics, and atmospheric coupling. Results show significant skill in reproducing temperature observations on daily, seasonal, and yearly time scales. In North San Francisco Bay, thermal stratification is present, enhanced by salinity stratification. The temperature of the upstream, fresh water Delta area is captured well in 2-D mode, although locally—on a small scale—vertical processes (e.g., stratification) may be important. The impact of upstream river temperature and discharge and atmospheric forcing on water temperatures differs throughout the Delta, possibly depending on dispersion and residence times. Our modeling effort provides a sound basis for future modeling studies including climate change impact on water temperature and associated ecological modeling, e.g., clam and fish habitat and phytoplankton dynamics.

California↗

USGS2005

Geomorphic change and vegetation development on the Muddy River Mudflow Deposit

Geomorphic disturbances are widely recognized as important processes that influence plant-community development and landscape-scale vegetation patterns [e.g., Veblen and Ashton (1978), Garwood et al. (1979), Swanson et al. (1988), and Malanson (1993)]. In volcanically active areas such as the Pacific Northwest, mudflows are locally important geomorphic disturbance events governing short- and long-term ecological conditions. Volcanic mudflows can scour and inundate river valleys with large volumes of debris (Janda et al. 1981; Pierson 1985; Vallance and Scott 1997; Scott 1988; Vallance 2000; Kovanen et al. 2001) and influence plant succession tens of kilometers downstream from their points of origin (Halpern and Harmon 1983; Adams and Dale 1987;Wood and del Moral 1987; Frenzen et al. 1988). In addition to altering plant succession, large volcanic mudflows can initiate a cascading chain of secondary disturbances that further modify the landscape and affect subsequent ecological responses (see Swanson and Major, Chapter 3, this volume).

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

Paired air-water annual temperature patterns reveal hydrogeological controls on stream thermal regimes at watershed to continental scales

Despite decades of research into air and stream temperature dynamics, paired air-water annual temperature signals have been underutilized to characterize watershed processes. Annual stream temperature dynamics are useful in classifying fundamental thermal regimes and can enhance process-based interpretation of stream temperature controls, including deep and shallow groundwater discharge, when paired with air signals. In this study, we investigated multi-scale variability in annual paired air-water temperature patterns using sine-wave linear regressions of multi-year daily temperature data from streams of various sizes. A total of 311 sites from two spatially intensive regional datasets (Shenandoah National Park and Olympic Experimental State Forest) and a spatially extensive national dataset spanning the contiguous United States (U.S. Geological Survey gages) were evaluated. We calculated three annual air-water thermal metrics (mean ratio, phase lag, and amplitude ratio) to deduce the influence of groundwater and other watershed processes on stream thermal regimes at multiple spatial scales. Site-specific values of the three annual air-water thermal metrics ranged from 0.69 to 5.29 (mean ratio), −9 to 40 days (phase lag), and 0.29 to 1.12 (amplitude ratio). Regional patterns in the annual thermal metrics revealed persistent yet spatially variable influences of shallow groundwater discharge and high levels of thermal variability within watersheds, indicating the importance of local hydrogeological controls on stream temperature. Furthermore, annual thermal metric patterns from the regional datasets were generally concordant with the national dataset suggesting the utility of these annual thermal metrics for analysis at multiple scales. Analysis of the national dataset showed that previously defined thermal regimes based on water temperature alone could be further refined using air-water metrics and these metrics were related to physiographic watershed characteristics such as contributing area, elevation, and slope. This research demonstrates the importance of spatial scale and heterogeneity for inferring hydrological process in streams and provides guidance for the interpretation of annual air-water temperature metrics that can be efficiently applied to the growing database of multi-year temperature records. Results from this research can aid in the prediction of future thermal habitat suitability for coldwater-adapted species at ecologically and management-relevant spatial scales with readily available data.

Continental United States↗

USGS2007

Soil nutrients influence spatial distributions of tropical trees species

The importance of niche vs. neutral assembly mechanisms in structuring tropical tree communities remains an important unsettled question in community ecology [Bell G (2005) Ecology 86:1757-1770]. There is ample evidence that species distributions are determined by soils and habitat factors at landscape (<104 km2) and regional scales. At local scales (<1 km2), however, habitat factors and species distributions show comparable spatial aggregation, making it difficult to disentangle the importance of niche and dispersal processes. In this article, we test soil resource-based niche assembly at a local scale, using species and soil nutrient distributions obtained at high spatial resolution in three diverse neotropical forest plots in Colombia (La Planada), Ecuador (Yasuni), and Panama (Barro Colorado Island). Using spatial distribution maps of >0.5 million individual trees of 1,400 species and 10 essential plant nutrients, we used Monte Carlo simulations of species distributions to test plant-soil associations against null expectations based on dispersal assembly. We found that the spatial distributions of 36-51% of tree species at these sites show strong associations to soil nutrient distributions. Neutral dispersal assembly cannot account for these plant-soil associations or the observed niche breadths of these species. These results indicate that belowground resource availability plays an important role in the assembly of tropical tree communities at local scales and provide the basis for future investigations on the mechanisms of resource competition among tropical tree species. ?? 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2021

Projected changes of regional lake hydrologic characteristics in response to 21st century climate change

Inland lakes are socially and ecologically important components of many regional landscapes. Exploring lake responses to plausible future climate scenarios can provide important information needed to inform stakeholders of likely effects of hydrologic changes on these waterbodies in coming decades. To assess potential climate effects on lake hydrology, we combined a previously published spatially explicit, processed-based hydrologic modeling framework implemented over the lake-rich landscape of the Northern Highlands Lake District within the United States with an ensemble of climate change scenarios for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). Model results quantify the effects of climate change on water budgets and lake stage elevations for 3692 lakes and highlight the importance of landscape and hydrologic setting for the response of specific lake types to climate change. All future climate projections resulted in loss of ice cover and snowpack as well as increased evaporation, but variability in climate projections (warmer conditions, wet winters combined with wet or dry summers) interacted with lake characteristics and landscape position to produce variable lake hydrologic changes. Water levels for drainage lakes (lakes with substantial surface water inflows and outflows) showed nearly no change, whereas minimum water levels for seepage lakes (minimal surface water fluxes) decreased by an average of up to 2.64 m by the end of the 21st century. Our physically based modeling approach is parsimonious and computationally efficient and can be applied to other lake-rich regions to investigate interregional variability in lake hydrologic response to future climate scenarios.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2022

Mapping first to final uses for rare earth elements, globally and in the United States

Estimating the material flows of rare earth elements (REEs) is essential to understanding which industries are most vulnerable to potential REE supply disruptions which, in turn, may inform policy recommendations aimed at reducing the supply risk. However, the REEs are a group of mineral commodities characterized by highly uncertain estimates of supply and demand due to the REE market's complexity, opacity, and small size. In this study, a streamlined methodology was applied to map mineral commodity first-use to final-use applications and to estimate total requirements at the national level based on available industrial data for final-use finished goods. This analysis examines REEs both as a group and individually, showing that total US requirements are between 15% and 16.5% of world requirements for the year 2015, the latest year with the most complete information available. The findings shed light on US industrial capabilities by revealing the discrepancy between the types of REEs that go into US raw material consumption and those that are contained in embedded consumption. For instance, given the United States’ large oil refining industry, US raw material consumption of lanthanum is quite high. In contrast, US raw material consumption of neodymium is relatively low, whereas embedded demand is comparatively high. This reflects the lack of industrial capacity to process REE concentrates into magnet material combined with the US's high imports of products that contain rare earth permanent magnets.

Journal of Industrial Ecology↗

USGS2005

Soil biota can change after exotic plant invasion: Does this affect ecosystem processes?

Invasion of the exotic annual grass Bromus tectorum into stands of the native perennial grass Hilaria jamesii significantly reduced the abundance of soil biota, especially microarthropods and nematodes. Effects of invasion on active and total bacterial and fungal biomass were variable, although populations generally increased after 50+ years of invasion. The invasion of Bromus also resulted in a decrease in richness and a species shift in plants, microarthropods, fungi, and nematodes. However, despite the depauperate soil fauna at the invaded sites, no effects were seen on cellulose decomposition rates, nitrogen mineralization rates, or vascular plant growth. When Hilaria was planted into soils from not-invaded, recently invaded, and historically invaded sites (all currently or once dominated by Hilaria), germination and survivorship were not affected. In contrast, aboveground Hilaria biomass was significantly greater in recently invaded soils than in the other two soils. We attributed the Hilaria response to differences in soil nutrients present before the invasion, especially soil nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, as these nutrients were elevated in the soils that produced the greatest Hilaria biomass. Our data suggest that it is not soil biotic richness per se that determines soil process rates or plant productivity, but instead that either (1) the presence of a few critical soil food web taxa can keep ecosystem function high, (2) nutrient loss is very slow in this ecosystem, and/or (3) these processes are microbially driven. However, the presence of Bromus may reduce key soil nutrients over time and thus may eventually suppress native plant success.

Utah↗

USGS2007

Seabirds as indicators of marine ecosystems: Introduction: A modern role for seabirds as indicators

A key requirement for implementing ecosystem-based management is to obtain timely information on significant fluctuations in the ecosystem (Botsford et al. 1997). However, obtaining all necessary information about physical and biological changes at appropriate temporal and spatial scales is a daunting task. Intuitively, one might assume that physical data are more important for the interpretation of ecosystem changes than biological data, but analyses of time series data suggest otherwise: physical data are more erratic and often confusing over the short term compared to biological data, which tend to fluctuate less on annual time scales (Hare & Mantua 2000). Even so, biological time-series may also be confusing when coexisting marine species respond differently to ecosystem variability. For example, while warming temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska following the 1976 to 1977 regime shift favored an increase in gadoids and flatfish, a variety of forage fish and pandalid shrimp species virtually disappeared (Anderson & Piatt 1999). Zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Alaska also demonstrated similar patterns of response (Francis et al. 1998). At the basin scale, favorable conditions for salmon in Alaska following the regime shift were matched inversely by poor conditions in the California Current (Francis et al. 1998). In marine birds, subtropical species increased, while subarctic ones decreased during a warming phase in the southern California Bight. Clearly, no single index can tell the whole story accurately. Multi-species, multi-region, and multi-trophic level approaches are needed to quantify fluctuations in marine ecosystem processes and in the distribution and abundance of its inhabitants, to determine critical parameter thresholds and to use this information in management and marine conservation.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2023

Climate change and maple syrup: Producer observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies

Introduction: Climate change is impacting forest-based agricultural systems with implications for producer decision-making and livelihoods. This article presents a case study on the observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies of maple syrup producers in the United States to climate change. Methods: We carried out two semi-structured surveys with maple producers on: (1) climate change and its impacts on the maple system ( n = 106 participants); and (2) responses to climate adaptation scenarios ( n = 98 participants). Additionally, we carried out two focus groups and key informant interviews ( n = 70+) to understand barriers and opportunities for climate adaptation. One of these focus groups and follow up key informant interviews was with tribally affiliated community members with the intention to acknowledge Indigenous Peoples’ voices, history, and relationships to the land. Results: Findings highlight that most of the surveyed producers (89%) have experienced the negative impacts of climate on maple syrup production. While 40% of participants feel concerned regarding the future of the maple system, 39% feel hopeful, with significant differences based on the age of the surveyed producers. The majority of producers have adapted their harvesting practices to climate effects. Producers shared knowledge of multiple adaptation strategies in response to climate scenarios comprised of: (1) stand management practices such as diversification of sap species tapped; (2) harvesting practices such as changing the type and number of taps; (3) sap processing practices focused on the integration of technology such as the use of an evaporator and reverse osmosis; and (4) marketing practices such as innovation of products and marketing different maple syrup characteristics. Responses shared by tribally affiliated producers highlight knowledge of multiple adaptation strategies that focus on long-term ecological management of forests rather than technological solutions. Discussion: Overall, findings emphasize the importance of cooperation and diversification at every level and dimension of the maple system for its long-term resilience.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗

USGS2019

Estimating connectivity of hard clam (Mercenaria mercenaria) and eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) larvae in Barnegat Bay

Many marine organisms have a well-known adult sessile stage. Unfortunately, our lack of knowledge regarding their larval transient stage hinders our understanding of their basic ecology and connectivity. Larvae can have swimming behavior that influences their transport within the marine environment. Understanding the larval stage provides insight into population connectivity that can help strategically identify areas for restoration. Current techniques for understanding the larval stage include modeling that combines particle attributes (e.g., larval behavior) with physical processes of water movement to contribute to our understanding of connectivity trends. This study builds on those methods by using a previously developed retention clock matrix (RCM) to illustrate time dependent connectivity of two species of shellfish between areas and over a range of larval durations. The RCM was previously used on physical parameters but we expand the concept by applying it to biology. A new metric, difference RCM (DRCM), is introduced to quantify changes in connectivity under different scenarios. Broad spatial trends were similar for all behavior types with a general south to north progression of particles. The DRCMs illustrate differences between neutral particles and those with behavior in northern regions where stratification was higher, indicating that larval behavior influenced transport. Based on these findings, particle behavior led to small differences (north to south movement) in transport patterns in areas with higher salinity gradients (the northern part of the system) compared to neutral particles. Overall, the dominant direction for particle movement was from south to north, which at times was enhanced by winds from the south. Clam and oyster restoration in the southern portion of Barnegat Bay could serve as a larval supply for populations in the north. These model results show that coupled hydrodynamic and particle tracking models have implications for fisheries management and restoration activities.

New Jersey↗

USGS2003

The history and development of FETAX (ASTM standard guide, E-1439 on conducting the frog embryo teratogenesis Assay-Xenopus)

The energy crisis of the 1970's and 1980's prompted the search for alternative sources of fuel. With development of alternate sources of energy, concerns for biological resources potentially adversely impacted by these alternative technologies also heightened. For example, few biological tests were available at the time to study toxic effects of effluents on surface waters likely to serve as receiving streams for energy-production facilities; hence, we began to use Xenopus laevis embryos as test organisms to examine potential toxic effects associated with these effluents upon entering aquatic systems. As studies focused on potential adverse effects on aquatic systems continued, a test procedure was developed that led to the initial standardization of FETAX. Other .than a limited number of aquatic toxicity tests that used fathead minnows and cold-water fishes such as rainbow trout, X. laevis represented the only other aquatic vertebrate test system readily available to evaluate complex effluents. With numerous laboratories collaborating, the test with X. laevis was refined, improved, and developed as ASTM E-1439, Standard Guide for the Conducting Frog Embryo Teratogenesis Assay-Xenopus (FETAX). Collabrative work in the 1990s yielded procedural enhancements, for example, development of standard test solutions and exposure methods to handle volatile organics and hydrophobic compounds. As part of the ASTM process, a collaborative interlaboratory study was performed to determine the repeatability and reliability of FETAX. Parallel to these efforts, methods were also developed to test sediments and soils, and in situ test methods were developed to address "lab-to-field extrapolation errors" that could influence the method's use in ecological risk assessments. Additionally, a metabolic activation system composed of rat liver microsomes was developed which made FETAX more relevant to mammalian studies.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2025

Bridging social and ecological science to create spatially-explicit models of human-caused mortality of carnivores

Research indicates that human-caused mortality (HCM) is a key factor limiting numerous large carnivore populations. However, efforts to represent HCM in spatially explicit models have generally been limited in scope—often relying on proxies, such as road or human density. Yet such efforts fail to distinguish different sources of HCM, which can arise from different antecedent processes. We offer a systems-based conceptual framework for understanding the antecedents of HCMs that is grounded in theory from the social and behavioral sciences. Specifically, we first explain how HCMs are usefully distinguished into four types (e.g., accidental, harvest, illicit, control actions), then discuss how these different types tend to be driven by different sets of psychological and sociopolitical processes. We contend that improvements in understanding the spatial variation in HCMs would rise from more explicit attention to the various antecedent processes that precede each mortality type.

Ambio↗