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At least 1,495 records · Page 83Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Using remote sensing products to predict recovery of vegetation across space and time following energy development

Using localized studies to understand how ecosystems recover can create uncertainty in recovery predictions across landscapes. Large archives of remote sensing data offer opportunities for quantifying the spatial and temporal factors influencing recovery at broad scales and predicting recovery. For example, energy production is a widespread and expanding land use among many semi-arid ecosystems of the Western United States dominated by sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), a keystone species providing a variety of ecological services. With remotely-sensed (Landsat) estimates of vegetation cover collected every 2–5 years from southwestern Wyoming, USA, over nearly three decades (1985–2015), we modeled changes in sagebrush cover on 375 former oil and gas well pads in response to weather and site-level conditions. We then used modeled relationships to predict recovery time across the landscape as an indicator of resilience for vegetation after well pad disturbances, where faster recovery indicates a greater capacity to recover when similarly disturbed. We found the rate of change in sagebrush cover generally increased with moisture and temperature, particularly at higher elevations. Rate of change in sagebrush cover also increased and decreased with greater percent sand and larger well pads, respectively. We predicted 21% of the landscape would recover to pre-disturbance conditions within 60 years, whereas other areas may require >100 years for recovery. These predictions and maps could inform future restoration efforts as they reflect resilience. This approach also is applicable to other disturbance types (e.g., fires and vegetation removal treatments) across landscapes, which can further improve conservation efforts by characterizing past conditions and monitoring trends in subsequent years.

Wyoming↗
USGS2006

Coastal wetlands of the northern Gulf of California: Inventory and conservation status

1. Above 28°N, the coastline of the northern Gulf of California is indented at frequent intervals by negative or inverse estuaries that are saltier at their backs than at their mouths due to the lack of freshwater inflow. These ‘esteros’ total over 215 000 ha in area and encompass mangrove marshes below 29°N and saltgrass ( Distichlis palmeri ) marshes north of 29°N. An additional 6000 ha of freshwater and brackish wetlands are found in the Colorado River delta where fresh water enters the intertidal zone. 2. The mangrove marshes in the Gulf of California have been afforded some degree of protected status in Mexico, but the northern saltgrass esteros do not have priority conservation status and are increasingly becoming development targets for resorts, vacation homes and aquaculture sites. 3. We conducted an inventory of the marshes using aerial photography and satellite images, and evaluated the extent and type of development on each marsh. We reviewed the available literature on the marshes to document their vegetation types and ecological functions in the adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. 4. Over 95% of the mangrove marshes have been developed for shrimp farming. However, the farms are built adjacent to, rather than in, the marshes, and the mangrove stands are still mostly intact. 5. The majority of saltgrass marshes above the mangrove line are still relatively unspoiled. However, resort and vacation home development is taking place on land surrounding them. 6. We recommend a system of protected reserves incorporating the pristine wetlands, along with water quality management and buffer zones for the more developed esteros. The saltgrass marshes should be considered for conservation protection, similar to the protection given to the southern mangrove marshes whose value has already been recognized.

Gulf of California↗
USGS2004

Rapid assessment indicator of wetland integrity as an unintended predictor of avian diversity

Rapid assessment of aquatic ecosystems has been widely implemented, sometimes without thorough evaluation of the robustness of rapid assessment metrics as indicators of ecological integrity. Here, we evaluate whether the Ohio Rapid Assessment Method (ORAM) for Wetlands Version 5.0 is a useful indicator of ecological integrity beyond its intended purpose. ORAM was developed to categorize natural wetlands for regulatory purposes and to contribute to the development of indicators of biotic integrity. It was never intended for use as an index of the quality of habitat for wetland birds. Nonetheless, it is conceivable that ORAM scores could serve as adequate predictors of avian diversity. We evaluated whether avian species richness in wetlands could be reliably predicted from each of the following variables: (1) total ORAM score, (2) total score minus the score for one metric that did not apply to all wetlands, and (3) sum of scores for the four ORAM components (of 16 scored) with the highest potential point total. These four components corresponded to aquatic vegetation communities, microtopography, modifications to natural hydrologic regime, and sources of water. All three variables were significant predictors of both total species richness and mean species richness of birds of conservation concern. Variable (3) was a significant predictor of mean species richness of wetland-dependent birds. Variable (2) was a weak predictor of both total and mean species richness of all birds combined. These results extend the robustness of ORAM as an indicator of the ecological integrity of wetlands.

Hydrobiologia↗
USGS2020

Environmental contamination and unusual snake mortality in an urban national wildlife refuge

The National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) System protects ~150 million acres of land and water in the United States and provides habitat for >2,000 native vertebrates species. Although legally protected, wildlife populations within these refuges can be threatened by anthropogenic activities. The lack of knowledge about such threats has the potential to undermine biodiversity conservation. We investigated patterns of wildlife mortality among three NWRs in the northern U.S. Gulf Coast. Visual surveys (958 total search-hours) were conducted for live or dead amphibians and reptiles at Big Branch, Bogue Chitto, and Bayou Sauvage NWRs. An exceptionally high incidence of snake mortality (>800% above background, P < 0.001) was observed at one site (Haul Road, Bayou Sauvage NWR). Mortality affected seven species and recurred for 29 months. Intact carcasses were subject to histopathological examination and diagnostic testing. Cause of death was undetermined (n = 9) or attributed to various pathogens (n = 5). To investigate possible underlying causes of this unusual mortality, water exposure challenges and soil toxicological analyses (n = 6 and 11 sites, respectively) were conducted on samples from Bayou Sauvage NWR, given the known potential for anthropogenic contamination in the refuge. In a controlled experiment, survival of Anaxyrus fowlerii embryos exposed to water from Recovery Road (i.e., 250m from a landfill) and Haul Road was reduced 92% and 48%, respectively, compared to four reference sites in the refuge. Sediment analyses suggested at least seven distinct sources of contaminants in Bayou Sauvage NWR. Potential sources included a landfill, illegal dumping, vehicle emissions, pesticide migration, and an active hydrocarbon pipeline leak discovered 600 m from Haul Road. Synthesis and applications: Although further research is needed to determine whether the observed mortality and contamination are related, these collective findings suggest that anthropogenic factors may threaten the ecological integrity of one of the United States largest urban wildlife refuges. More broadly, our study highlights the critical need for species inventories, baseline data, and systematic monitoring in NWRs. Such information is essential to detecting and mitigating anthropogenic threats to biodiversity conservation in protected areas.

Louisiana↗
USGS2019

Identification of conservation and restoration priority areas in the Danube River based on the multi-functionality of river-floodplain systems

Large river-floodplain systems are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services but are also used for multiple human activities, making them one of the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. There is wide evidence that reconnecting river channels with their floodplains is an effective measure to increase their multi-functionality, i.e., ecological integrity, habitats for multiple species and the multiple functions and services of river-floodplain systems, although, the selection of promising sites for restoration projects can be a demanding task. In the case of the Danube River in Europe, planning and implementation of restoration projects is substantially hampered by the complexity and heterogeneity of the environmental problems, lack of data and strong differences in socio-economic conditions as well as inconsistencies in legislation related to river management. We take a quantitative approach based on best-available data to assess biodiversity using selected species and three ecosystem services (flood regulation, crop pollination , and recreation), focused on the navigable main stem of the Danube River and its floodplains. We spatially prioritize river-floodplain segments for conservation and restoration based on (1) multi-functionality related to biodiversity and ecosystem services, (2) availability of remaining semi-natural areas and (3) reversibility as it relates to multiple human activities (e.g. flood protection, hydropowerand navigation). Our approach can thus serve as a strategic planning tool for the Danube and provide a method for similar analyses in other large river-floodplain systems.

Danube River↗
USGS2023

Aquatic vegetation types identified during early and late phases of vegetation recovery in the Upper Mississippi River

Assemblage patterns and processes of aquatic vegetation in most large floodplain rivers are not well understood, particularly after plant recovery. Identifying vegetation types, which are recurring plant groupings based on species composition, diversity, and abundances, can describe plant assembly patterns and environmental drivers that aid conservation planning and management. We used a 22-year dataset ( n = 18,000 sampling plots) to identify aquatic vegetation types during an “early phase” and “late phase” of plant recovery at multiple spatial scales nested within a 500-km river reach of the Upper Mississippi River, USA. We hypothesized that vegetation types varied according to scale because of the stark environmental differences among riverine habitats and differing regional species pools along the river's latitudinal gradient, and that the late phase of recovery had developed several new vegetation types. We first used cluster analyses at multiple spatiotemporal scales to identify the number of vegetation types and their characteristics, such as indicator species, species compositions and abundances, and diversity index. Then we applied a multivariate regression to pinpoint environmental factors (such as hydrodynamics, system productivity, local habitat, and water quality) that structured those vegetation types. Clustering revealed that ~90% of plots irrespective of recovery phase were not classified into vegetation types, which indicated that most aquatic sampling plots are unique in species composition and unpredictable. However, impounded areas upriver from dams had matured five vegetation types: lotus ( Nelumbo lutea Willd.), submersed (a mix of 11 common submersed species), watercelery ( Vallisneria americana Michx.), arrowheads ( Sagittaria rigida Pursh and Sagittaria latifolia Willd.), and a diverse community (with high diversity indices and multiple life forms). The vegetation types were associated with three environmental gradients related to inundation depth and duration, system productivity, and water clarity. These five vegetation types are known to be of high ecological value to fish and wildlife and thus targets for restoration, for example, the watercelery community is principal forage for migrating canvasback ducks ( Aythya valisineria ) along the Mississippi River flyway. Our results provide insights on vegetation assembly during recovery and aid habitat conservation by providing quantitative, environmental targets for restoration.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2021

Resistance and resilience of pelagic and littoral fishes to drought in the San Francisco Estuary

Many estuarine ecosystems and the fish communities that inhabit them have undergone substantial changes in the past several decades, largely due to multiple interacting stressors that are often of anthropogenic origin. Few are more impactful than droughts, which are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity with climate change. In this study, we examined over five decades of fish monitoring data from the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, to evaluate the resistance and resilience of fish communities to disturbance from prolonged drought events. High resistance was defined by the lack of decline in species occurrence from a wet to a subsequent drought period, while high resilience was defined by the increase in species occurrence from a drought to a subsequent wet period. We found some unifying themes connecting the multiple drought events over the 50‐yr period. Pelagic fishes consistently declined during droughts (low resistance), but exhibit a considerable amount of resiliency and often rebound in the subsequent wet years. However, full recovery does not occur in all wet years following droughts, leading to permanently lower baseline numbers for some pelagic fishes over time. In contrast, littoral fishes seem to be more resistant to drought and may even increase in occurrence during dry years. Based on the consistent detrimental effects of drought on pelagic fishes within the San Francisco Estuary and the inability of these fish populations to recover in some years, we conclude that freshwater flow remains a crucial but not sufficient management tool for the conservation of estuarine biodiversity.

California↗
USGS2023

Factors influencing autumn–winter movements of midcontinent Mallards and consequences for harvest and habitat management

Annual phenology and distributions of migratory wildlife have been noticeably influenced by climate change, leading to concerns about sustainable populations. Recent studies exploring conditions influencing autumn migration departure have provided conflicting insights regarding factors influencing the movements of Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), a popular game species. We determined factors affecting timing and magnitude of long-distance movements of 97 juvenile Mallards during autumn-winter across the midcontinent of North America marked with implanted transmitters in North and South Dakota, 2018–2019. Factors influencing variation in movement timing, along with direction and magnitudes, depended on type of movement (i.e., regional [25–310 km], initial migration, or subsequent migration movements [>310 km]). Photoperiod influenced probability of initiating all movements, although the effect was most influential for regional movements. Minimum temperature most influenced initial migration events (probability of movement increased 29% for each 1°C decrease); favorable winds also increased likelihood of initial migration events. Probability of subsequent migration events increased 80% for each 1 cm increase in depth of snow. Subsequent migration movements also were 2.0 times more likely to occur on weekend days, indicating disturbance from humans may influence movements. Migration distances increased 166 km for each 1°C reduction in minimum temperature. We also observed markedly different autumn-winter distributions of marked birds between years. Median locations during autumn-winter 2018–2019 were ~250 km farther north and ~300 km farther west during mid-December–January compared to the same time in 2019–2020. Concurrently, harvest rates for marked females and males were 10% and 26% during autumn-winter 2018–2019 and 26% and 31% during autumn-winter 2019–2020. Climate-related changes may result in increasingly variable autumn-winter distributions, with implications for wildlife recreationalists, conservation planners, and harvest managers.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Using a multi-model ensemble approach to determine biodiversity hotspots with limited occurrence data in understudied areas: An example using freshwater mussels in México

Species distribution models (SDMs) are an increasingly important tool for conservation particularly for difficult-to-study locations and with understudied fauna. Our aims were to (1) use SDMs and ensemble SDMs to predict the distribution of freshwater mussels in the Pánuco River Basin in Central México; (2) determine habitat factors shaping freshwater mussel occurrence; and (3) use predicted occupancy across a range of taxa to identify freshwater mussel biodiversity hotspots to guide conservation and management. In the Pánuco River Basin, we modeled the distributions of 11 freshwater mussel species using an ensemble approach, wherein multiple SDM methodologies were combined to create a single ensemble map of predicted occupancy. A total of 621 species-specific observations at 87 sites were used to create species-specific ensembles. These predictive species ensembles were then combined to create local diversity hotspot maps. Precipitation during the warmest quarter, elevation, and mean temperature were consistently the most important discriminatory environmental variables among species, whereas land use had limited influence across all taxa. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first freshwater mussel-focused research to use an ensemble approach to determine species distribution and predict biodiversity hotspots. Our study can be used to guide not only current conservation efforts but also prioritize areas for future conservation and study.

Pánuco↗
USGS2022

Genomic divergence, local adaptation, and complex demographic history may inform management of a popular sportfish species complex

The Neosho Bass ( Micropterus velox ), a former subspecies of the keystone top-predator and globally popular Smallmouth Bass ( M. dolomieu ), is endemic and narrowly restricted to small, clear streams of the Arkansas River Basin in the Central Interior Highlands (CIH) ecoregion, USA. Previous studies have detected some morphological, genetic, and genomic differentiation between the Neosho and Smallmouth Basses; however, the extent of neutral and adaptive divergence and patterns of intraspecific diversity are poorly understood. Furthermore, lineage diversification has likely been impacted by gene flow in some Neosho populations, which may be due to a combination of natural biogeographic processes and anthropogenic introductions. We assessed: (1) lineage divergence, (2) local directional selection (adaptive divergence), and (3) demographic history among Smallmouth Bass populations in the CIH using population genomic analyses of 50,828 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained through ddRAD-seq. Neosho and Smallmouth Bass formed monophyletic clades with 100% bootstrap support. We identified two major lineages within each species. We discovered six Neosho Bass populations (two nonadmixed and four admixed) and three nonadmixed Smallmouth Bass populations. We detected 29 SNPs putatively under directional selection in the Neosho range, suggesting populations may be locally adapted. Two populations were admixed via recent asymmetric secondary contact, perhaps after anthropogenic introduction. Two other populations were likely admixed via combinations of ancient and recent processes. These species comprise independently evolving lineages, some having experienced historical and natural admixture. These results may be critical for management of Neosho Bass as a distinct species and may aid in the conservation of other species with complex biogeographic histories.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Optimal sampling design for spatial capture‐recapture

Spatial capture‐recapture (SCR) has emerged as the industry standard for estimating population density by leveraging information from spatial locations of repeat encounters of individuals. The precision of density estimates depends fundamentally on the number and spatial configuration of traps. Despite this knowledge, existing sampling design recommendations are heuristic and their performance remains untested for most practical applications. To address this issue, we propose a genetic algorithm that minimizes any sensible, criteria‐based objective function to produce near‐optimal sampling designs. To motivate the idea of optimality, we compare the performance of designs optimized using three model‐based criteria related to the probability of capture. We use simulation to show that these designs out‐perform those based on existing recommendations in terms of bias, precision, and accuracy in the estimation of population size. Our approach, available as a function in the R package oSCR, allows conservation practitioners and researchers to generate customized and improved sampling designs for wildlife monitoring.

Ecology↗
USGS2016

A global review of freshwater crayfish temperature tolerance, preference, and optimal growth

Conservation efforts, environmental planning, and management must account for ongoing ecosystem alteration due to a changing climate, introduced species, and shifting land use. This type of management can be facilitated by an understanding of the thermal ecology of aquatic organisms. However, information on thermal ecology for entire taxonomic groups is rarely compiled or summarized, and reviews of the science can facilitate its advancement. Crayfish are one of the most globally threatened taxa, and ongoing declines and extirpation could have serious consequences on aquatic ecosystem function due to their significant biomass and ecosystem roles. Our goal was to review the literature on thermal ecology for freshwater crayfish worldwide, with emphasis on studies that estimated temperature tolerance, temperature preference, or optimal growth. We also explored relationships between temperature metrics and species distributions. We located 56 studies containing information for at least one of those three metrics, which covered approximately 6 % of extant crayfish species worldwide. Information on one or more metrics existed for all 3 genera of Astacidae, 4 of the 12 genera of Cambaridae, and 3 of the 15 genera of Parastacidae. Investigations employed numerous methodological approaches for estimating these parameters, which restricts comparisons among and within species. The only statistically significant relationship we observed between a temperature metric and species range was a negative linear relationship between absolute latitude and optimal growth temperature. We recommend expansion of studies examining the thermal ecology of freshwater crayfish and identify and discuss methodological approaches that can improve standardization and comparability among studies.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗
USGS2023

Invasive Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans minimally alters the trophic ecology of four native fishes in Wyoming, USA

Invasive species introductions are a primary threat facing populations of native freshwater fishes. There are multiple mechanisms by which an invader can affect native species, with competition for food resources being one mechanism that can lead to declines in the distribution and abundance of native species. Invaders that are trophic generalists may cause shifts in the trophic ecology of native species and may be better suited for long-term persistence amid environmental stochasticity. Therefore, trophic studies can provide valuable information on the risk an invader poses to native species. Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans is an invasive fish species in Wyoming whose effect on native fish assemblages is poorly understood. Our goal was to understand the potential for competitive interactions between Brook Stickleback and native fishes. We used stable isotopes of carbon (ẟ 13 C) and nitrogen (ẟ 15 N) to evaluate the feeding ecology of Brook Stickleback relative to four native fishes, and to explore whether native fish isotopic niches changed in sympatry with Brook Stickleback. We hypothesized that the isotopic niche of Brook Stickleback would be larger than that of native fishes, suggesting broader resource use. Additionally, we hypothesized that the isotopic niche of native fish populations sympatric with Brook Stickleback would contract. We did not find support for our hypotheses as the isotopic niche of Brook Stickleback was not substantially different from that of native fishes. Further, the isotopic niche of native fishes was not substantially affected by Brook Stickleback presence. As a result, we do not currently see evidence of Brook Stickleback altering the trophic ecology of native fish species. Our results provide insight to the effects of a small-bodied invasive fish species on native fishes in a previously unstudied region, and can help managers prioritize management actions to conserve native fishes.

Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Importance of scale, land cover, and weather on the abundance of bird species in a managed forest

Climate change and habitat loss are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. While public lands have the potential to increase regional resilience of bird populations to these threats, long-term data are necessary to document species responses to changes in climate and habitat to better understand population vulnerabilities. We used generalized linear mixed models to determine the importance of stand-level characteristics, multi-scale land cover, and annual weather factors to the abundance of 61 bird species over a 20-year time frame in Chippewa National Forest, Minnesota, USA. Of the 61 species modeled, we were able to build final models with R-squared values that ranged from 26% to 69% for 37 species; the remaining 24 species models had issues with convergence or low explanatory power (R-squared < 20%). Models for the 37 species show that stand-level characteristics, land cover factors, and annual weather effects on species abundance were species-specific and varied within guilds. Forty-one percent of the final species models included stand-level characteristics, 92% included land cover variables at the 200 m scale, 51% included land cover variables at the 500 m scale, 46% included land cover variables at the 1000 m scale, and 38% included weather variables in best models. Three species models (8%) included significant weather and land cover interaction terms. Overall, models indicated that aboveground tree biomass and land cover variables drove changes in the majority of species. Of those species models including weather variables, more included annual variation in precipitation or drought than temperature. Annual weather variability was significantly more likely to impact abundance of species associated with deciduous forests and bird species that are considered climate sensitive. The long-term data and models we developed are particularly suited to informing science-based adaptive forest management plans that incorporate climate sensitivity, aim to conserve large areas of forest habitat, and maintain an historical mosaic of cover types for conserving a diverse and abundant avian assemblage.

Minnesota↗
USGS2026

Ecological transformations of coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States in response to contemporaneous sea-level rise

Coastal wetlands are among the most important ecosystems on the planet but are increasingly imperiled by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). In the past, biogeomorphic feedbacks have allowed coastal wetlands to adjust vertically and persist through periods of accelerated SLR. Recent rates of SLR are faster than any in recent geologic history, making the fate of coastal wetlands highly uncertain. Here, we synthesize surface elevation table marker-horizon data from 442 stations in coastal wetlands across the conterminous United States to evaluate if they are largely persisting in the face of accelerated SLR, or if they are undergoing ecological transformations of submergence and/or migration. Across the conterminous United States, 11% of coastal wetlands in this sample are on a trajectory of submergence whereas 73% of sites are lagging SLR, but may be able to migrate upslope, and 16% of sites are gaining elevation at rates which exceed SLR indicating persistence and an ability to migrate seaward. Vulnerability of these systems to ecological transformation varies across the three coasts of the conterminous United States which, span large biogeomorphic gradients. These results serve as one of the first national syntheses of coastal wetland elevation trends and may help focus conservation and restoration efforts in a rapidly changing future.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Two hundred years of historical spawning and nursery data for coregonine fishes in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Historical data can provide critical ecological information for species across the globe, many of which are facing unprecedented rates of ecosystem change. Yet, historical information related to freshwater species, especially fishes, remains scattered, often in original formats, and underutilized for informing conservation and restoration activities. Here, we present a Data Descriptor called Coregonine Spawning History (CORHIST), a database designed to house diverse data related to past spawning and nursery areas for fishes in the family Salmonidae, subfamily Coregoninae (ciscoes and whitefishes), in the Laurentian Great Lakes and their tributaries. Data for 11 species of coregonines historically occurring in the Great Lakes are included in CORHIST. Over 3,400 occurrence records at the coordinate scale have been entered, over 2,200 of which are for Cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) and Lake Whitefish ( C. clupeaformis )—two focal species for which there is either multinational conservation interest or restoration efforts underway in the Laurentian Great Lakes. CORHIST is already proving useful for several studies developing habitat suitability models and delineating spatial units for conservation or restoration planning.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗
USGS2021

A science agenda to inform natural resource management decisions in an era of ecological transformation

Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet.

BioScience↗
USGS2013

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g −1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

California↗