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At least 1,477 records · Page 82Linked to original sources

Soil geochemical survey of abandoned mining sites in the Eastern-Central Peloritani Mountains, Sicily, Italy

This investigation focused on topsoils ( n = 122) and vertical profiles ( n = 6) distributed over an area of 250 km 2 in the eastern-central Peloritani Mountains, northeastern Sicily. Georeferenced concentration of 53 elements (including potentially harmful ones), determined by ICP-MS after an aqua regia leach, were used to produce geochemical maps by means of a GIS-aided spatial interpolation process. Results show that there are two distinct areas: the larger, located between the Fiumendinisi, Budali and Ali villages, and the other between C. Postlioni and Femmina Morta, which contain anomalous As (up to 727 mg/kg), Sb (up to 60 mg/kg), Ag (up to 1 mg/kg) and Au (up to 0.1 mg/kg) concentrations. Most of the investigated areas have high contamination levels for As, Zn, Sb, and Pb that exceed the threshold values (As = 20 mg/kg, Zn = 150 mg/kg, Sb = 10 mg/kg and Pb = 100 mg/kg) established for soils by the Italian Environmental Law ( Decreto Legislativo 2006 , number 152). The isotopic ratios of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb and 208 Pb/ 207 Pb have been measured in selected soils on both leaches [using 1M HNO 3 –1.75M HCl (50:50)] and residues thereof. Soil leach reflects possible anthropogenic contamination, whereas soil residues indicate geogenic contributions. Results suggest that most of contamination in the soils is related to the presence of sulphide and sulphosalt rock-forming minerals in the surveyed area. The soil fraction contains a Pb value >1600 mg/kg and has ratios of 1.1695 for 206 Pb/ 207 Pb and 2.4606 for 208 Pb/ 207 Pb. Only one soil leach isotopic composition could reflect possible anthropogenic contamination. The correlation among As, Zn, Pb contents v. Pb isotopic signatures of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb indicates that surface and deep soils collected from profiles are dominated by geogenic compositions.

Peloritani Mountains, Sicily↗

Magnetostratigraphy susceptibility for the Guadalupian Series GSSPs (Middle Permian) in Guadalupe Mountains National Park and adjacent areas in West Texas

Here we establish a magnetostratigraphy susceptibility zonation for the three Middle Permian Global boundary Stratotype Sections and Points (GSSPs) that have recently been defined, located in Guadalupe Mountains National Park, West Texas, USA. These GSSPs, all within the Middle Permian Guadalupian Series, define (1) the base of the Roadian Stage (base of the Guadalupian Series), (2) the base of the Wordian Stage and (3) the base of the Capitanian Stage. Data from two additional stratigraphic successions in the region, equivalent in age to the Kungurian–Roadian and Wordian–Capitanian boundary intervals, are also reported. Based on low-field, mass specific magnetic susceptibility (χ) measurements of 706 closely spaced samples from these stratigraphic sections and time-series analysis of one of these sections, we (1) define the magnetostratigraphy susceptibility zonation for the three Guadalupian Series Global boundary Stratotype Sections and Points; (2) demonstrate that χ datasets provide a proxy for climate cyclicity; (3) give quantitative estimates of the time it took for some of these sediments to accumulate; (4) give the rates at which sediments were accumulated; (5) allow more precise correlation to equivalent sections in the region; (6) identify anomalous stratigraphic horizons; and (7) give estimates for timing and duration of geological events within sections.

Texas↗

Three new Psammothidium species from lakes of Olympic and Cascade Mountains in Washington State, USA

Populations of several Psammothidium species were found in core sediments from nine remote, high elevation, ultraoligotrophic and oligotrophic, Olympic and Cascade Mountain lakes. Three of these species, P. lacustre, P. alpinum , and P. nivale , are described here as new. The morphology of the silica frustules of these species was documented using light and scanning electron microscopy. We discuss the similarities and differences with previously described Psammothidium species.

Washington↗

Precipitation estimation in mountainous terrain using multivariate geostatistics. Part I: structural analysis

Values of average annual precipitation (AAP) are desired for hydrologic studies within a watershed containing Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high-level nuclear-waste repository. Reliable values of AAP are not yet available for most areas within this watershed because of a sparsity of precipitation measurements and the need to obtain measurements over a sufficient length of time. To estimate AAP over the entire watershed, historical precipitation data and station elevations were obtained from a network of 62 stations in southern Nevada and southeastern California. Multivariate geostatistics (cokriging) was selected as an estimation method because of a significant (p = 0.05) correlation of r = .75 between the natural log of AAP and station elevation. A sample direct variogram for the transformed variable, TAAP = ln [(AAP) 1000], was fitted with an isotropic, spherical model defined by a small nugget value of 5000, a range of 190 000 ft, and a sill value equal to the sample variance of 163 151. Elevations for 1531 additional locations were obtained from topographic maps to improve the accuracy of cokriged estimates. A sample direct variogram for elevation was fitted with an isotropic model consisting of a nugget value of 5500 and three nested transition structures: a Gaussian structure with a range of 61 000 ft, a spherical structure with a range of 70 000 ft, and a quasi-stationary, linear structure. The use of an isotropic, stationary model for elevation was considered valid within a sliding-neighborhood radius of 120 000 ft. The problem of fitting a positive-definite, nonlinear model of coregionalization to an inconsistent sample cross variogram for TAAP and elevation was solved by a modified use of the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. A selected cross-variogram model consisted of two nested structures: a Gaussian structure with a range of 61 000 ft and a spherical structure with a range of 190 000 ft. Cross validation was used for model selection and for comparing the geostatistical model with six alternate estimation methods. Multivariate geostatistics provided the best cross-validation results.

Nevada↗

Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous Western United States

Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-twentieth century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and midelevations, and a shift toward earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the centroid (center of mass) of streamflows. To project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, a rigorous detection and attribution analysis is performed to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western United States. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0??C (a simple proxy for temperature driven snowmelt). These observed changes are also inconsistent with the model-predicted responses to variability in solar irradiance and volcanic activity. The observations are consistent with climite simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. It is found that, for each temperature variable considered, an anthropogenic signal is identifiable in observational fields. The results are robust to uncertainties in model-estimated fingerprints and natural variability noise, to the choice of statistical down-scaling method, and to various processing options in the detection and attribution method. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗

Mountain plant communities: Uncertain sentinels?

Mountain plant communities are thought to be sensitive to climate change and thus able to reveal its effects sooner than others. Two plant communities examined here, alpine treeline ecotones and alpine tundra, have been observed to respond to climate change in recent decades. Treeline has moved upslope and alpine tundra communities have had some species increase and others decrease. The response for both, however, has been inconsistent if taken as a whole. Problematic factors for this response are outlined for both: abiotic and biotic interactions partially decouple the plant communities from climate. Differences across spatial and temporal scales complicate interpretation. Partial decoupling leads to nonlinear responses and difficulties for prediction and for planning mitigation.

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environm↗

Linking modern pollen accumulation rates to biomass: Quantitative vegetation reconstruction in the western Klamath Mountains, NW California, USA

Quantitative reconstructions of vegetation abundance from sediment-derived pollen systems provide unique insights into past ecological conditions. Recently, the use of pollen accumulation rates (PAR, grains cm −2 year −1 ) has shown promise as a bioproxy for plant abundance. However, successfully reconstructing region-specific vegetation dynamics using PAR requires that accurate assessments of pollen deposition processes be quantitatively linked to spatially-explicit measures of plant abundance. Our study addressed these methodological challenges. Modern PAR and vegetation data were obtained from seven lakes in the western Klamath Mountains, California. To determine how to best calibrate our PAR-biomass model, we first calculated the spatial area of vegetation where vegetation composition and patterning is recorded by changes in the pollen signal using two metrics. These metrics were an assemblage-level relevant source area of pollen (aRSAP) derived from extended R-value analysis ( sensu Sugita, 1993) and a taxon-specific relevant source area of pollen (tRSAP) derived from PAR regression ( sensu Jackson, 1990). To the best of our knowledge, aRSAP and tRSAP have not been directly compared. We found that the tRSAP estimated a smaller area for some taxa (e.g. a circular area with a 225 m radius for Pinus ) than the aRSAP (a circular area with a 625 m radius). We fit linear models to relate PAR values from modern lake sediments with empirical, distance-weighted estimates of aboveground live biomass (AGL dw ) for both the aRSAP and tRSAP distances. In both cases, we found that the PARs of major tree taxa – Pseudotsuga, Pinus, Notholithocarpus , and TCT (Taxodiaceae, Cupressaceae, and Taxaceae families) – were statistically significant and reasonably precise estimators of contemporary AGL dw . However, predictions weighted by the distance defined by aRSAP tended to be more precise. The relative root-mean squared error for the aRSAP biomass estimates was 9% compared to 12% for tRSAP. Our results demonstrate that calibrated PAR-biomass relationships provide a robust method to infer changes in past plant biomass.

California, Oregon↗

Tracking magmatic processes through Zr/Hf ratios in rocks and Hf and Ti zoning in zircons: An example from the Spirit Mountain batholith, Nevada

Zirconium and Hf are nearly identical geochemically, and therefore most of the crust maintains near-chondritic Zr/Hf ratios of ???35-40. By contrast, many high-silica rhyolites and granites have anomalously low Zr/Hf (15-30). As zircon is the primary reservoir for both Zr and Hf and preferentially incorporates Zr, crystallization of zircon controls Zr/ Hf, imprinting low Zr/Hf on coexisting melt. Thus, low Zr/Hf is a unique fingerprint of effective magmatic fractionation in the crust. Age and compositional zonation in zircons themselves provide a record of the thermal and compositional histories of magmatic systems. High Hf (low Zr/ Hf) in zircon zones demonstrates growth from fractionated melt, and Ti provides an estimate of temperature of crystallization (TTiZ) (Watson and Harrison, 2005). Whole-rock Zr/Hf and zircon zonation in the Spirit Mountain batholith, Nevada, document repeated fractionation and thermal fluctuations. Ratios of Zr/Hf are ???30-40 for cumulates and 18-30 for high-SiO2 granites. In zircons, Hf (and U) are inversely correlated with Ti, and concentrations indicate large fluctuations in melt composition and TTiZ (>100??C) for individual zircons. Such variations are consistent with field relations and ion-probe zircon geochronology that indicate a >1 million year history of repeated replenishment, fractionation, and extraction of melt from crystal mush to form the low Zr/Hf high-SiO2 zone. ?? 2006 The Mineralogical Society.

Mineralogical Magazine↗

Uranoan thorite in lithophysal rhyolite - Topaz Mountain, Utah, U.S.A.

Uranoan thorite crystals have been found occurring as a sparse constituent in lithophysae in 6.1 to 6.8 Ma alkali rhyolite flows at Thomas Mountain, Utah, USA. The crystals are associated with sandidine, quartz, topaz, hematite, magnetite, and calcite; they are leek to dark grass green, transparent, well-formed, euhedral prisms, showing development of forms {100}, {101}, and {111}. The mineral is both optically isotropic, with a refractive index of 1.86(1), and X-ray amorphous, indicating its metamict state. Electron microprobe analysis yields: SiO 2 17.3, ThO 2 56.8, UO 2 25.4, total 99.5%, and a structural formula of (Th 0.72 U 0.31 ) Σ1.03 Si 0.97 O 4 . This appears to be the first reported occurrence of thorite in volcanic rocks of rhyolitic composition, and may account for part or all of the Th reported in alkali rhyolites and so-called ‘topaz-rhyolites’ of the western USA.

Utah↗

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Introduction Climate change is expected to impose significant tension on the geographic distribution of tree species. Yet, tree species range shifts may be delayed by their long life spans, capacity to withstand long periods of physiological stress, and dispersal limitations. Wildfire could theoretically break this biological inertia by killing forest canopies and facilitating species redistribution under changing climate. We investigated the capacity of wildfire to modulate climate-induced tree redistribution across a montane landscape in the central Rocky Mountains under three climate scenarios (contemporary and two warmer future climates) and three wildfire scenarios (representing historical, suppressed, and future fire regimes). Methods Distributions of four common tree species were projected over 90 years by pairing a climate niche model with a forest landscape simulation model that simulates species dispersal, establishment, and mortality under alternative disturbance regimes and climate scenarios. Results Three species (Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, subalpine fir) declined in abundance over time, due to climate-driven contraction in area suitable for establishment, while one species (ponderosa pine) was unable to exploit climate-driven expansion of area suitable for establishment. Increased fire frequency accelerated declines in area occupied by Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir, and it maintained local abundance but not range expansion of ponderosa pine. Conclusions Wildfire may play a larger role in eliminating these conifer species along trailing edges of their distributions than facilitating establishment along leading edges, in part due to dispersal limitations and interspecific competition, and future populations may increasingly depend on persistence in locations unfavorable for their establishment.

Idaho↗

Predicting wildfire impacts on the prehistoric archaeological record of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, USA

Wildfires of uncharacteristic severity, a consequence of climate changes and accumulated fuels, can cause amplified or novel impacts to archaeological resources. The archaeological record includes physical features associated with human activity; these exist within ecological landscapes and provide a unique long-term perspective on human–environment interactions. The potential for fire-caused damage to archaeological materials is of major concern because these resources are irreplaceable and non-renewable, have social or religious significance for living peoples, and are protected by an extensive body of legislation. Although previous studies have modeled ecological burn severity as a function of environmental setting and climate, the fidelity of these variables as predictors of archaeological fire effects has not been evaluated. This study, focused on prehistoric archaeological sites in a fire-prone and archaeologically rich landscape in the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico, USA, identified the environmental and climate variables that best predict observed fire severity and fire effects to archaeological features and artifacts.

New Mexico↗

Modeled interactions of mountain pine beetle and wildland fire under future climate and management scenarios for three western US landscapes

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) is a native disturbance agent across most pine forests in the western US. Climate changes will directly and indirectly impact frequencies and severities of MPB outbreaks, which can then alter fuel characteristics and wildland fire dynamics via changes in stand structure and composition. To investigate the importance of MPB to past and future landscape dynamics, we used the mechanistic, spatially explicit ecosystem process model FireBGCv2 to quantify interactions among climate, MPB, wildfire, fire suppression, and fuel management under historical and projected future climates for three western US landscapes. We compared simulated FireBGCv2 output from three MPB modules (none, simple empirical, and complex mechanistic) using three focus variables and six exploratory variables to evaluate the importance of MPB to landscape dynamics.

Fire Ecology↗

Relationship of satellite-derived fire severity to archaeological fire severity and fire effects in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, USA

Background Archaeological attributes important for determining cultural affiliation, site age, or artifact origin can be damaged or destroyed by wildfires. Satellite-derived fire severity products are used in post-fire rapid response to prioritize and guide stabilization and preservation activities, but their ability to predict archaeological fire impacts has not yet been tested. We compared the severity of fire from Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps with ground-based observations of fire severity (“archaeological fire severity”) and archaeological impacts for 904 prehistoric or historic sites within three wildfires in the Jemez Mountains of north-central New Mexico, U.S. Results from this unique study inform archaeological preservation in the context of wildfires and fire management. Results We found a statistically significant, moderately strong association between BARC and archaeological fire severity and a high likelihood that sites with a low BARC fire severity also had a low archaeological fire severity designation. Sites of moderate or high BARC severity were less likely to have a matching severity classification in post-fire assessments, and BARC maps tended to identify as unburned areas where archaeologists determined that sites were burned at low severity. Wildfire of any severity resulted in measurable impacts to archaeological architecture, features, or artifacts at some sites, with increasing proportion of sites impacted at moderate versus low BARC severity, but fire impacts were also observed at sites classified by BARC as unburned. Conclusions Generally, BARC maps provide good assessment of the severity of fire and its effects on archaeological resources, particularly for areas burned at low severity. In areas of moderate or high fire severity, BARC maps may not consistently identify sites with a high need for assessment, and archaeological fire effects can also be present at sites classified by BARC as unburned. Adoption of standardized post-fire archaeological assessments across wildfires and regions, exploration of alternative fire mapping products, and continued research on the fire environments that produce archaeological fire effects can enhance archaeological preservation and post-fire response.

New Mexico↗

Near‐surface evaluation of Ball Mountain Dam, Vermont, using multi‐channel analysis of surface waves (MASW) and refraction tomography seismic methods on land‐streamer data

A limited seismic investigation of Ball Mountain Dam, an earthen dam near Jamaica, Vermont, was conducted using multiple seismic methods including multi‐channel analysis of surface waves (MASW), refraction tomography, and vertical seismic profiling (VSP). The refraction and MASW data were efficiently collected in one survey using a towed land streamer containing vertical‐displacement geophones and two seismic sources, a 9‐kg hammer at the beginning of the spread and a 40‐kg accelerated weight drop one spread length from the geophones, to obtain near‐ and far‐offset data sets. The quality of the seismic data for the purposes of both refraction and MASW analyses was good for near offsets, decreasing in quality at farther offsets, thus limiting the depth of investigation to about 12 m. Refraction tomography and MASW analyses provided 2D compressional (Vp) and shear‐wave (Vs) velocity sections along the dam crest and access road, which are consistent with the corresponding VSP seismic velocity estimates from nearby wells. The velocity sections helped identify zonal variations in both Vp and Vs (rigidity) properties, indicative of material heterogeneity or dynamic processes (e.g. differential settlement) at specific areas of the dam. The results indicate that refraction tomography and MASW methods are tools with significant potential for economical, non‐invasive characterization of construction materials at earthen dam sites.

Vermont↗

Geophysical interpretation of U, Th, and rare earth element mineralization of the Bokan Mountain peralkaline granite complex, Prince of Wales Island, southeast Alaska

A prospectivity map for rare earth element (REE) mineralization at the Bokan Mountain peralkaline granite complex, Prince of Wales Island, southeastern Alaska, was calculated from high-resolution airborne gamma-ray data. The map displays areas with similar radioelement concentrations as those over the Dotson REE-vein-dike system, which is characterized by moderately high %K, eU, and eTh (%K, percent potassium; eU, equivalent parts per million uranium; and eTh, equivalent parts per million thorium). Gamma-ray concentrations of rocks that share a similar range as those over the Dotson zone are inferred to locate high concentrations of REE-bearing minerals. An approximately 1300-m-long prospective tract corresponds to shallowly exposed locations of the Dotson zone. Prospective areas of REE mineralization also occur in continuous swaths along the outer edge of the pluton, over known but undeveloped REE occurrences, and within discrete regions in the older Paleozoic country rocks. Detailed mineralogical examinations of samples from the Dotson zone provide a means to understand the possible causes of the airborne Th and U anomalies and their relation to REE minerals. Thorium is sited primarily in thorite. Uranium also occurs in thorite and in a complex suite of ± Ti ± Nb ± Y oxide minerals, which include fergusonite, polycrase, and aeschynite. These oxides, along with Y-silicates, are the chief heavy REE (HREE)-bearing minerals. Hence, the eU anomalies, in particular, may indicate other occurrences of similar HREE-enrichment. Uranium and Th chemistry along the Dotson zone showed elevated U and total REEs east of the Camp Creek fault, which suggested the potential for increased HREEs based on their association with U-oxide minerals. A uranium prospectivity map, based on signatures present over the Ross-Adams mine area, was characterized by extremely high radioelement values. Known uranium deposits were identified in the U-prospectivity map, but the largest tract occurs over a radioelement-rich granite phase within the pluton that is likely not related to mineralization. Neither mineralization type displays a well-defined airborne magnetic signature.

Alaska↗

Digital outcrop model of stratigraphy and breccias of the southern Franklin Mountains, El Paso, Texas

This chapter reviews and synthesizes the lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, chronostratigraphy, and breccia types of the southwestern part of the great American carbonate bank in the southern Franklin Mountains (SFM), El Paso, Texas. Primary stratigraphic units of focus are the Lower Ordovician El Paso and Upper Ordovician Montoya Groups. These groups preserve breccias formed by collapse of a paleocave system. Precambrian and Silurian units are discussed in the context of breccia clast composition and relative timing of breccia emplacement. Specific attention is paid to the juxtaposition of the top-Sauk second-order supersequence unconformity between the El Paso and Montoya Groups and its relationship to breccias above and below it. The unconformity represents a 10-m.y. exposure event that separates Upper and Lower Ordovician carbonates. The top-Sauk exposure has been previously documented as a significant karst horizon across much of North America. The breccias of the SFM were previously described as the result of collapsed paleocaves that formed during subaerial exposure related to the Sauk-Tippecanoe unconformity. A new approach in this work uses traditional field mapping combined with high-resolution ( 1-m [ 3.3-ft] point spacing) airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data over 24 km 2 (9 mi 2 ) to map breccia and relevant stratal surfaces. Airborne LIDAR data were used to create a digital outcrop model of the SFM from which a detailed (1:2000 scale) geologic map was created. The geologic map includes formation, fault, and breccia contacts. The digital outcrop model was used to interpret three-dimensional spatial relationships of breccia bodies with respect to the current understanding of the tectonic and stratigraphic evolution of the SFM. The data presented here are used to discuss potential stratigraphic, temporal, and tectonic controls on the formation of caves within the study area that eventually collapsed to form the breccias currently exposed in outcrop.

Texas↗

Minturn and Sangre de Cristo formations of Southern Colorado: A prograding fan delta and alluvial fan sequence shed from the ancestral Rocky Mountains

The Middle Pennsylvania!) Minturn Formation and the Pennsylvanian-Permian Sangre de Cristo Formation of the northern Sangre de Cristo Range form a thick progradational sequence of coarse clastic sediments. These sediments were deposited along the western margin of the central Colorado trough during uplift of the late Paleozoic Uncompahgre highland, a major structural and topographic feature of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains. The Minturn is composed mostly of sandstone and shale deposited by fan deltas that prograded into the central Colorado trough. The Minturn of the northern Sangre de Cristo Range is divisible into a turbidite-bearing facies, a limestone-bearing facies, and a redbed facies. The turbidite-bearing facies is interpreted as deposits of fan deltas that prograded onto the sea bottom below wave base. The limestone-bearing facies is interpreted as deposits of fan deltas that prograded onto a shallow sea bottom above wave base. In this facies, sandstones containing deltaic foresets overlie thin shallow marine limestones and are considered diagnostic of that facies. Both facies contain thick intervals of sandstone and shale interpreted as deltaic and alluvial deposits. Where it onlaps the Uncompahgre highland, the lower part of the Minturn Formation contains quartzose and arkosic redbeds of probable alluvial origin. The continental Sangre de Cristo Formation conformably overlies the Minturn Formation basinward, but it unconformably overlies the Minturn and Precambrian basement near the Uncompahgre highland. The Sangre de Cristo contains two facies. A sandstone facies consists of fining-upward cycles of red conglomeratic sandstone and siltstone interpreted as braided stream deposits on distal parts of alluvial fans. A conglomerate facies (Crestone Conglomerate Member) consists of poorly sorted conglomerates interpreted as debris flow and mudflow deposits and sorted conglomerate and sandstone interpreted as streamflow and sheetflow deposits on proximal parts of alluvial fans. The fan deltas and alluvial fans that deposited the Minturn and Sangre de Cristo formations probably developed in response to faulting and uplift of the Uncompahgre highland. The highland rose at least three times from Middle Pennsylvanian to Early Permian time. Later, during the Laramide orogeny, the faulted boundary between the highland and the central Colorado trough was destroyed by thrusting. The boundary faults were not strike-slip, as shown by the distribution of clasts in conglomerates directly downstream from identical Precambrian rocks that represent part of the highland.

Colorado↗

An integrated model of environmental effects on growth, carbohydrate balance, and mortality of Pinus ponderosa forests in the southern Rocky Mountains

Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ). Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities.

Jemez Mountains, Rocky Mountains↗