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Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

A new Web-based application, titled “Application of Flood Regressions and Climate Change Scenarios To Explore Estimates of Future Peak Flows”, has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, that allows a user to apply a set of regression equations to estimate the magnitude of future floods for any stream or river in New York State (exclusive of Long Island) and the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. The regression equations that are the basis of the current application were developed in previous investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are described at the USGS StreamStats Web sites for New York ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/new_york.html ) and Vermont ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/Vermont.html ). These regression equations include several fixed landscape metrics that quantify aspects of watershed geomorphology, basin size, and land cover as well as a climate variable—either annual precipitation or annual runoff. The application uses predictions of future annual precipitation from five climate models and two future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and provides results that are averaged over three future periods—2025 to 2049, 2050 to 2074, and 2075 to 2099. Results are presented in ensemble form as the mean, median, maximum, and minimum values among the five climate models for each greenhouse gas emissions scenario and period. These predictions of future annual precipitation are substituted into either the precipitation variable or a water balance equation for runoff to calculate potential future peak flows. This application is intended to be used only as an exploratory tool because (1) the regression equations on which the application is based have not been adequately tested outside the range of the current climate and (2) forecasting future precipitation with climate models and downscaling these results to a fine spatial resolution have a high degree of uncertainty. This report includes a discussion of the assumptions, uncertainties, and appropriate use of this exploratory application.

Open-File Report↗

Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

Conservation and management of sea otters can benefit from managing the magnitude and sex composition of human related mortality, including harvesting within sustainable levels. Using age and sex-specific reproduction and survival rates from field studies, we created matrix population models representing sea otter populations with growth rates of 1.005, 1.072, and 1.145, corresponding to stable, moderate, and rapid rates of change. In each modeled population, we incrementally imposed additional annual mortality over a 20-year period and calculated average annual rates of change (lambda). Additional mortality was applied to (1) males only, (2) at a 1:1 ratio of male to female, and (3) at a 3:1 ratio of male to female. Dependent pups (age 0-0.5) were excluded from the mortality. Maintaining a stable or slightly increasing population was largely dependent on (1) the magnitude of additional mortality, (2) the underlying rate of change in the population during the period of additional mortality, and (3) the extent that females were included in the additional mortality (due to a polygnous reproductive system where one male may breed with more than one female). In stable populations, additional mortality as high as 2.4 percent was sustainable if limited to males only, but was reduced to 1.2 percent when males and females were removed at ratios of 3:1 or 0.5 percent at ratios of 1:1. In moderate growth populations, additional mortality of 9.8 percent (male-only) and 15.0 percent (3:1 male to female) maximized the sustainable mortality about 3-10 ten-fold over the stable population levels. However, if additional mortality consists of males and females at equal proportions, the sustainable rate is 7.7 percent. In rapid growth populations, maximum sustainable levels of mortality as high as 27.3 percent were achieved when the ratio of additional mortality was 3:1 male to female. Although male-only mortality maximized annual harvest in stable populations, high male biased mortality in all simulations eventually led to low proportions of males, leading to instability in projected populations over time. Our findings identify the critical need to understand underlying rates of change that can be acquired only through frequent monitoring of managed populations. Models could be improved through better understanding of the effects of density and demographic and environmental stochasticity on sea otter vital rates. Although our primary objective was to provide information useful in managing harvests of sea otters, our findings have implications for the conservation and management of sea otter populations subjected to other sources of mortality that can be quantified, such as incidental, accidental, or illegal.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrologic assessment of three drainage basins in the Pinelands of southern New Jersey, 2004-06

The New Jersey Pinelands is an ecologically diverse area in the southern New Jersey Coastal Plain, most of which overlies the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system. The demand for groundwater from this aquifer system is increasing as local development increases. Because any increase in groundwater withdrawals has the potential to affect streamflows and wetland water levels, and ultimately threaten the ecological health and diversity of the Pinelands ecosystem, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Pinelands Commission, began a multi-phase hydrologic investigation in 2004 to characterize the hydrologic system supporting the aquatic and wetland communities of the New Jersey Pinelands area (Pinelands). The current investigation of the hydrology of three representative drainage basins in the Pinelands (Albertson Brook, McDonalds Branch, and Morses Mill Stream basins) included a compilation of existing data; collection of water-level and streamflow data; mapping of the water-table altitude and depth to the water table; and analyses of water-level and streamflow variability, subsurface gradients and flow patterns, and water budgets. During 2004-06, a hydrologic database of existing and new data from wells and stream sites was compiled. Methods of data collection and analysis were defined, and data networks consisting of 471 wells and 106 surface-water sites were established. Hydrographs from 26 water-level-monitoring wells and four streamflow-gaging stations were analyzed to show the response of water levels and streamflow to precipitation and recharge with respect to the locations of these wells and streams within each basin. Water-level hydrographs show varying hydraulic gradients and flow potentials, and indicate that responses to recharge events vary with well depth and proximity to recharge and discharge areas. Results of the investigation provide a detailed characterization of hydrologic conditions, processes, and relations among the components of the hydrologic cycle in the Pinelands. In the Pinelands, recharge replenishes the aquifer system and contributes to groundwater flow, most of which moves to wetlands and surface water where natural discharge occurs. Some groundwater flow is intercepted by supply wells. Recharge rates generally are highest during the non-growing season and are inversely related to evapotranspiration. Analysis of subsurface hydraulic gradients, water-table fluctuations, and streamflow variability indicates a strong linkage between groundwater and wetlands, lakes and streams. Gradient analysis indicates that most wetlands are in groundwater discharge areas, but some wetlands are in groundwater recharge areas. The depth to the water table ranges from zero at surface-water features up to about 10 meters in topographically high areas. Depth to water fluctuates seasonally, and the magnitude of these fluctuations generally increases with distance from surface water. Variations in the permeability of the soils and sediments of the aquifer system strongly affect patterns of water movement through the subsurface and the interaction of groundwater with wetlands, lakes and streams. Mean annual streamflow during 2004-06 ranged from 83 to 106 percent of the long-term mean annual discharge, indicating that the data-collection period can be considered representative of average conditions. Measurements of groundwater levels, stream stage, and stream discharge and locations of start-of-flow are illustrated in basin-wide maps of water-table altitude, depth to the water table, and stream base flow during the period. Water-level data collected along 15 hydrologic transects that span the range of environments from uplands through wetlands to surface water were used to determine hydraulic gradients, potential flow directions, and areas of recharge and discharge. These data provide information about the localized interactions of groundwater with wetlands and surface water. Wetlands were categorized with r

New Jersey↗

Flood-inundation maps for the Meramec River at Valley Park and at Fenton, Missouri, 2017

Two sets of digital flood-inundation map libraries that spanned a combined 16.7-mile reach of the Meramec River that extends upstream from Valley Park, Missouri, to downstream from Fenton, Mo., were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, St. Louis Metropolitan Sewer District, Missouri Department of Transportation, Missouri American Water, and Federal Emergency Management Agency Region 7. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the cooperative USGS streamgages on the Meramec River at Valley Park, Mo., (USGS station number 07019130) and the Meramec River at Fenton, Mo. (USGS station number 07019210). Near-real-time stage data at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at these sites (listed as NWS sites vllm7 and fnnm7, respectively). Flood profiles were computed for the stream reaches by means of a calibrated one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model. The model was calibrated using a stage-discharge relation at the Meramec River near Eureka streamgage (USGS station number 07019000) and documented high-water marks from the flood of December 2015 through January 2016. The calibrated hydraulic model was used to compute two sets of water-surface profiles: one set for the streamgage at Valley Park, Mo. (USGS station number 07019130), and one set for the USGS streamgage on the Meramec River at Fenton, Mo. (USGS station number 07019210). The water-surface profiles were produced for stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the datum from each streamgage and ranging from the NWS action stage, or near bankfull discharge, to the stage corresponding to the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (500-year recurrence interval) flood, as determined at the Eureka streamgage (USGS station number 07019000). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.28-ft vertical accuracy and 3.28-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each flood stage (water level). The availability of these maps, along with internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures and for postflood recovery efforts.

Missouri↗

Water budget of the upper Chehalis River Basin, southwestern Washington

Groundwater and surface water collectively supply the domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs of the 895-square mile upper Chehalis River Basin upstream of Grand Mound, Washington, while providing streamflow for fish and other aquatic species in the Chehalis River and its tributaries. To support sustainable water management decision-making, a water budget (including precipitation, interception, groundwater recharge, surface runoff, and groundwater pumping) was developed for the upper Chehalis River Basin during October 2001–September 2015. Water-budget components were estimated from the U.S. Geological Survey Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model except for groundwater pumping, which was estimated from public water purveyor records, annual system data from the Washington State Department of Health, census population data, and water-use estimates. Groundwater recharge estimated from the SWB model was compared to base flow, a proxy for groundwater recharge, independently estimated from separation of the hydrograph recorded by the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage at the outlet of the basin. Mean annual precipitation for the basin was estimated at 72.6 inches, of which 35 percent was lost to evapotranspiration, 30 percent was recharged to groundwater, 30 percent was surface runoff, and 5 percent was lost to interception. SWB model estimates of groundwater recharge were 17 percent less than estimates of base flow from hydrograph separation. Groundwater pumpage in the basin was estimated at 1 percent of groundwater recharge estimated by SWB and 0.8 percent of base flow estimated by hydrograph separation. These estimates form a baseline for understanding future changes to components of water use and may be used to inform numerical groundwater models to support sustainable management of water resources in the upper Chehalis River Basin.

Washington↗

Transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Cedar River Basin, Iowa and Minnesota, 2000–15

Nitrate concentrations in the Cedar River in Iowa and Minnesota have increased from an average of less than 1.0 milligram per liter in the early 1900s to more than 5.0 milligrams per liter in the 2000s and have resulted in periodic water-quality impairment of the river. Spatial differences and temporal changes in nitrogen and phosphorus transport in the Cedar River Basin are described for the period from 2000 to 2015. Data used to estimate nitrogen and phosphorus transport were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of six base-flow synoptic studies and by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the Iowa Department of Natural Resources as part of their long-term stream and river monitoring programs. The Cedar River transported an annual average of 53,100 tons of total nitrogen and 2,510 tons of total phosphorus during 2000–15. Three subbasins yielded an annual average of more than 30 pounds per acre (lb/acre) of nitrogen to the Cedar River, whereas two subbasins yielded an annual average of less than 20 lb/acre of nitrogen. The average annual total phosphorus yield from the Little Cedar River subbasin (0.35 lb/acre) was only about 16 percent of the yield from the greatest total phosphorus yielding Lower Cedar River subbasin (more than 1.0 lb/acre). The annual total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads did not change significantly during the study. The relation between annual stream runoff and annual total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields was not spatially uniform across the Cedar River Basin. The Beaver Creek, Black Hawk Creek, and Wolf Creek subbasins yielded the most, and the Main Stem Middle Cedar River, the Lower Cedar River, and the Little Cedar River subbasins yielded the least amount of nitrogen for a given amount of runoff. The Lower Cedar River and Wolf Creek subbasins yielded the most and the West Fork Cedar River and the Little Cedar River subbasins yielded the least phosphorus for a given amount of runoff. The results of this study describe nutrient transport during 2000–15 that can be used to evaluate future progress of nutrient reduction strategies in the Cedar River Basin.

Iowa, Minnesota↗

Atmospheric deposition of nutrients, pesticides, and mercury in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, 2002

Nutrients, current-use pesticides, and mercury were measured in atmospheric deposition during summer in Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado to improve understanding of the type and magnitude of atmospheric contaminants being deposited in the park. Two deposition sites were established on the east side of the park: one at an elevation of 2,902 meters near Bear Lake for nutrients and pesticides, and one at an elevation of 3,159 meters in the Loch Vale watershed for mercury. Concentrations of nutrients in summer precipitation at Bear Lake ranged from less than 0.007 to 1.29 mg N/L (milligrams of nitrogen per liter) for ammonium and 0.17 to 4.59 mg N/L for nitrate and were similar to those measured at the Loch Vale National Atmospheric Deposition Network station, where nitrogen concentrations in precipitation are among the highest in the Rocky Mountains. Atrazine, dacthal, and carbaryl were the most frequently detected pesticides at Bear Lake, with carbaryl present at the highest concentrations (0.0079 to 0.0952 ?g/L (micrograms per liter), followed by atrazine (less than 0.0070 to 0.0604 ?g/L), and dacthal (0.0030 to 0.0093 ?g/L). Mercury was detected in weekly bulk deposition samples from Loch Vale in concentrations ranging from 2.6 to 36.2 ng/L (nanograms per liter). Concentrations in summer precipitation were combined with snowpack data from a separate study to estimate annual deposition rates of these contaminants in 2002. Annual bulk nitrogen deposition in 2002 was 2.28 kg N/ha (kilograms of nitrogen per hectare) at Bear Lake and 3.35 kg N/ha at Loch Vale. Comparison of wet and bulk deposition indicated that dry deposition may account for as much as 28 percent of annual nitrogen deposition, most of which was deposited during the summer months. Annual deposition rates for three pesticides were estimated as 45.8 mg/ha (milligrams per hectare) of atrazine, 14.2 mg/ha of dacthal, and 54.8 mg/ha of carbaryl. Because of much higher pesticide concentrations in summer precipitation than in winter snow, between 80 to 90 percent of the annual pesticide deposition occurs during summer. Mercury deposition to Loch Vale was estimated at 7.1 ?g/m2 (micrograms per square meter) of which nearly 70 percent of the annual mercury deposition occurred during summer. Despite the fact that most precipitation at high-elevations falls during winter, these results emphasize the importance of monitoring precipitation chemistry during summer to improve estimates of contaminant deposition to high-elevation ecosystems in Rocky Mountain National Park. Air-parcel back trajectories were calculated using an atmospheric transport model to identify potential source regions for contaminants reaching the park. The results indicate that during the winter, the most likely source of contami-nants is from areas northwest of the park, but during summer, contaminants are most likely coming from sources to the southwest and east.

Colorado↗

Conceptual hydrologic model of flow in the unsaturated zone, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The unsaturated volcanic tuffs beneath Yucca Mountain, Nevada, are being evaluated as a host rock for a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. A conceptual hydrologic model is proposed to describe the flow of fluids through these rocks. Thickness of the unsaturated zone is about 500 to 750 meters and consists of three welded units interlayered with two nonwelded units. Compared to nonwelded units, welded units have low matrix porosities and permeabilities, high fracture densities, and high bulk hydraulic conductivities. The principal repository area is bounded by normal fault zones. Of the average annual precipitation of 150 millimeters per year, 0.5 to 4.5 millimeters per year becomes net infiltration. Percolation through the matrix of the welded units is principally vertical and is less than 1 millimeter per year. Percolation through nonwelded units occurs both vertically and laterally and has variable rates (0.1 to 100 millimeters per year). Fracture flow is predominant in the uppermost welded unit during intense pulses of infiltration, but is insignificant in the welded unit that forms the potential host rock. Lateral flow in the upper nonwelded unit, enhanced by existence of a capillary barrier, probably is the factor controlling the low fluxes in the host rock and relatively high fluxes in the structural features. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Effects of land-management practices on sediment yields in northeastern Guilford County, North Carolina

Streamflow, precipitation, and suspended-sediment data were collected from two small agricultural basins in the Piedmont province of North Carolina. The data were used to determine the effects of land-management practices on sediment yield. One basin of 7.4 acres represents best land-management practices with strip cropping, crop rotation, contour farming, and grassed waterways. The other basin of 4.8 acres represents standard land-management practices with down-slope row orientation, unmaintained grassed waterways, and without crop rotation. Data collected during the 1985-87 water years were used to develop regression equations to describe the relation between suspended-sediment discharge and water discharge. Data sets consisting of suspended-sediment concentrations and corresponding instantaneous water-discharge data were developed. There were two data sets from each basin, one representing data collected during the growing season, May through September, and the other representing data collected during the nongrowing season, October through April. Four regression equations were developed, one for each data set, and were tested for goodness-of-fit by use of graphical analysis, influence diagnostics, significance tests, and residuals analysis. Following acceptance of the four equations, the slope of each individual line was tested to determine if season was a significant variable. Seasonally, the average sediment yields (2.7 tons per acre) from the basin having best land-management practices were only about one-seventh of those (20 tons per acre) from the basin having standard land-management practices. Comparison of annual sediment yields in the agricultural basins against the yield from a nearby forested basin, which represents a nearly undisturbed basin, indicates a 10- to 100-fold increase in sediment yields from the study basins. The forested basin sediment yield was 0.1 ton per acre in the 1987 water year. Sheet erosion, which represents soil moving from high areas to low areas in a basin but not necessarily reaching a stream, is also influenced by land-management practices. This type of erosion was estimated to be 3.6 tons per acre per year for the basin with best land-management practices and 45 tons per acre per year for the basin with standard land-management practices.

North Carolina↗

Surface-water-quality assessment of the lower Kansas River Basin, Kansas and Nebraska: Suspended-sediment conditions, May 1987 through April 1990, and trends, 1963 through April 1990

Median suspended-sediment concentrations ranged from 100 to 110 milligrams per liter for 3 stations on the Kansas River and from 4 to 110 milligrams per liter for 10 stations on tributary streams during May 1987 through April 1990. For tributary stream stations upstream from large reservoirs, concen- trations in the 90th percentile ranged from 240 to 3,200 milligrams per liter. The larger median and 90th-percentile concentrations were associated with high-density irrigated cropland with gradual slopes and nonirrigated cropland with steeper slopes. Smaller median and 90th-percentile concentrations upstream from reservoirs were from areas of little or no row-crop cultivation or areas of substantially less-than-normal precipitation and streamflow. Suspended-sediment concentrations followed a con- sistent seasonal pattern; after accounting for the effect of flow, concentrations were typically smallest during January-February and largest during July-August. Mean annual suspended-sediment transport in the Kansas River from May 1987 through April 1990 increased in the downstream direction from 1,700,000 to 4,100,000 tons per year. Suspended-sediment yields for tributary streams ranged from 17 to 260 tons per square mile per year. Because of abnormal climatic conditions and other factors, no conclusions could be reached con- cerning relations of suspended-sediment transport or yield to natural or human factors. Only one upward and one downward trend in flow-adjusted, suspended-sediment concentrations were statistically significant. The trend-test results could not be explained by data on cropland removed from production or the effect of detention structures.

Kansas, Nebraska↗

Hydrologic data for urban studies in the San Antonio, Texas, metropolitan area, 1975

Hydrologic investigations of urban watersheds in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. These studies are now in progress in Austin, Dallas and Dallas County, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio. The Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, expanded the existing streamflow network in the San Antonio metropolitan area in May 1968 to begin urban hydrology studies in this area. In September 1968, the program was further expanded to include the collection of water-quality data. The objectives of the Sari Antonio urban hydrology study are: To provide data showing the effects of various stages of urbanization on flood discharge and runoff. To provide water-quality data on surface-water runoff from floods of various magnitudes, during all seasons of the year from areas with different types of utilization. Annual publication of the San Antonio urban studies was initiated in 1969.

Texas↗

Geology, Water, and Wind in the Lower Helmand Basin, Southern Afghanistan

This report presents an overview of the geology, hydrology, and climate of the lower Helmand Basin, a large, closed, arid basin in southern Afghanistan. The basin is drained by the Helmand River, the only perennial desert stream between the Indus and Tigris-Euphrates Rivers. The Helmand River is the lifeblood of southern Afghanistan and has supported desert civilizations in the Sistan depression for over 6,000 years. The Helmand Basin is a structurally closed basin that began to form during the middle Tertiary as a consequence of the collision of several Gondwanaland fragments. Aeromagnetic studies indicate the basin is 3-5 kilometers deep over basement rocks. Continued subsidence along basin-bounding faults in Iran and Pakistan throughout the Neogene has formed the Sistan depression in the southwest corner of the basin. Lacustrine, eolian, and fluvial deposits are commonly exposed in the basin and were intruded by latest Miocene-middle Quaternary volcanoes, which indicates that depositional environments in the lower Helmand Basin have not substantially changed for nearly 10 million years. Lakes expanded in the Sistan depression during the Quaternary; however, the size and extent of these pluvial lakes are unknown. Climate conditions in the lower Helmand Basin likely mirrored climate changes in the Rajasthan Desert to the east and in Middle Eastern deserts to the west: greater aridity during global episodes of colder temperatures and increased available moisture during episodes of warmer temperatures. Eolian processes are unusually dominant in shaping the landscape in the basin. A strong wind blows for 120 days each summer, scouring dry lakebeds and creating dune fields from annual flood deposits. Nearly one-third of the basin is mantled with active or stabilized dunes. Blowing winds combined with summer temperatures over 50? Celsius and voluminous insect populations hatched from the deltaic wetlands create an environment referred to as the 'most odious place on earth' by 19th century visitors. During dry years, large plumes of dust originating from Sistan are recorded by weather satellites. The Helmand River drains about 40 percent of Afghanistan and receives most of its moisture from melting snow and spring storms. Similar to many desert streams, the Helmand and its main tributary, the Arghandab River, are characterized by large fluctuations in monthly and annual discharges. Water from the Helmand accumulates in several hamuns (shallow lakes) in the Sistan depression. The wetlands surrounding these hamuns are the largest in western Asia and are directly affected by droughts and floods on the Helmand. Average annual discharge on the Helmand is about 6.12 million megaliters (million cubic meters), and the annual discharge varies by a factor of five. In 2005, the region was just beginning to recover from the longest drought (1998-2005) of record back to 1830. Annual peak discharges range from less than 80 cubic meters per second in 1971 to nearly 19,000 cubic meters per second in 1885. Large floods fill each hamun to overflowing to create one large lake that overflows into the normally dry Gaud-i Zirreh basin. The interaction of flooding, active subsidence, and wind erosion causes frequent channel changes on the Helmand delta. A major development effort on the Helmand River was initiated after World War II with substantial aid from the United States. Two dams and several major canals were completed in the 1950s; however, poor drainage conditions on the newly prepared agricultural fields caused extensive waterlogging and salinization. New drains were installed and improved agricultural methods were implemented in the 1970s, and some lands became more productive. Since 1980, Afghanistan has endured almost constant war and civil and political strife. In 2005, the country was on a path to rebuild much of its technical infrastructure. Revitalization of agricultural lands in the lower Helmand Basin and improved managem

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Oklahoma developed by using streamflow data through 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Oklahoma Department of Transportation, updated peak-streamflow regression equations for estimating flows with annual exceedance probabilities from 50 to 0.2 percent for the State of Oklahoma. These regression equations incorporate basin characteristics to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency throughout the State by use of a generalized least-squares regression analysis. The most statistically significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, mean-annual precipitation, and main-channel slope. The regression equations are applicable for stream basins with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation. The standard model error ranged from 31.28 to 49.32 percent for the different annual exceedance probabilities that were computed. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at 212 USGS streamgages through water year 2017 were used for the regression analysis, excluding the Oklahoma Panhandle region. The USGS StreamStats web application was used to obtain the independent variables required for the peak-streamflow regression equations. Limitations on the use of the regression equations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are described. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climate characteristics, and the peak-streamflow frequency estimates for the 212 streamgages in and near Oklahoma are provided in this report. This report contains descriptions of the methods that can be used to estimate peak streamflows at ungaged sites by using estimates from streamgages on unregulated streams. For ungaged sites on urban streams and streams regulated by small floodwater-retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas↗

A trend analysis and model comparison of total phosphorus concentrations and loads in the Boise River near Parma, southwestern Idaho, water years 2003–21

Total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and loads in the Boise River near Parma, Idaho, were examined to identify changes by month over a 19-year period from water year 2003 through water year 2021 and to evaluate the performance of three common water-quality models. Mean annual TP concentrations and loads were estimated to have reduced by approximately 60 percent over the study period. Mean annual TP concentrations were reduced from 0.42 milligrams per liter in 2003 to 0.18 milligrams per liter in 2021. Mean annual TP loads were reduced from 816 kilograms per day in 2003 to 302 kilograms per day in 2021. Mean annual concentrations and loads reduced by approximately 3 percent per year with the largest changes occurring in the non-irrigation season of October through April. The TP load remained highest in May across the model period while peak concentration shifted from January to March. High-frequency TP data collected with an automated sampler every 49 hours enabled detailed model performance evaluation of the Load Estimator (LOADEST), Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), and WRTDS method with Kalman filtering (WRTDS_K) water-quality models generated with near-monthly data. All three models were generally able to reproduce the observed concentrations, with the largest errors occurring in the spring when observed concentrations were most variable. Annual TP loads varied by up to 27 percent, or approximately 128,000 kilograms, between the three models calibrated on monthly data. In this system with highly variable concentrations, we note that performance metrics for WRTDS_K based on monthly calibration data masked serious errors that were only revealed by comparing results against higher frequency (49-hour) autosampler data. This emphasizes the value of high frequency validation data to quantify uncertainty in water-quality models when applied to systems where concentrations change rapidly. Lastly, we identify that hydraulic routing may be a valuable addition to discharge, season, and time in water-quality modeling for systems with significant human intervention in natural hydro-biogeochemical processes.

Idaho↗

Estimated ground-water discharge by evapotranspiration from Death Valley, California, 1997-2001

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service and Inyo County, Calif., collected field data from 1997 through 2001 to accurately estimate the amount of annual ground-water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) from the floor of Death Valley, California. Multispectral satellite-imagery and National Wetlands Inventory data are used to delineate evaporative ground-water discharge areas on the Death Valley floor. These areas are divided into five general units where ground-water discharge from ET is considered to be significant. Based upon similarities in soil type, soil moisture, vegetation type, and vegetation density; the ET units are salt-encrusted playa (21,287 acres), bare-soil playa (75,922 acres), low-density vegetation (6,625 acres), moderate-density vegetation (5,019 acres), and high-density vegetation (1,522 acres). Annual ET was computed for ET units with micrometeorological data which were continuously measured at six instrumented sites. Total ET was determined at sites that were chosen for their soil- and vegetated-surface conditions, which include salt-encrusted playa (extensive salt encrustation) 0.17 feet per year, bare-soil playa (silt and salt encrustation) 0.21 feet per year, pickleweed (pickleweed plants, low-density vegetation) 0.60 feet per year, Eagle Borax (arrowweed plants and salt grass, moderate-density vegetation) 1.99 feet per year, Mesquite Flat (mesquite trees, high-density vegetation) 2.86 feet per year, and Mesquite Flat mixed grasses (mixed meadow grasses, high-density vegetation) 3.90 feet per year. Precipitation, flooding, and ground-water discharge satisfy ET demand in Death Valley. Ground-water discharge is estimated by deducting local precipitation and flooding from cumulative ET estimates. Discharge rates from ET units were not estimated directly because the range of vegetation units far exceeded the five specific vegetation units that were measured. The rate of annual ground-water discharge by ET for each ET unit was determined by fitting the annual ground-water ET for each site with the variability in vegetation density in each ET unit. The ET rate representing the midpoint of each ET unit was used as the representative value. The rate of annual ground-water ET for the playa sites did not require scaling in this manner. Annual ground-water discharge by ET was determined for all five ET units: salt-encrusted playa (0.13 foot), bare-soil playa (0.15 foot), low-density vegetation (1.0 foot), moderate-density vegetation (2.0 feet), and high-density vegetation (3.0 feet), and an area of vegetation or bare soil not contributing to ground-water discharge unclassified (0.0 foot). The total ground-water discharge from ET for the Death Valley floor is about 35,000 acre-feet and was computed by summing the products of the area of each ET unit multiplied by a corresponding ET rate for each unit.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Water-quality and fluvial-sediment characteristics of selected streams in northeast Kansas

In cooperation with the U.S. Soil Conservation Service, an investigation was made of the water-quality and fluvial-sediment characteristics of selected streams in northeast Kansas for which the construction of floodwater-retarding and grade-stabilization structures to control soil erosion is being considered. The predominent chemical type of water in streams draining the study area is calcium bicarbonate. In-stream concentrations of chemical constituents generally decrease with increasing streamflow. Exceptions to this are nitrate and phosphorus, which enter the streams as components of surface runoff. Computed mean annual discharges of dissolved solids ranged from 512 tons for Pony CratkSabetha, Kansas, to 23,900 tons for the Wolf River near Sparks, Kansas. Sediment yields in the study area, predominently silt and clay, are among the largest in the State. Drainage basins in the northern part of the study area yielded the most suspended sediment, with Pony Creek at Sabetha and near Reserve, Kansas, yielding 5,100 tons per square mile per year. Drainage basins in the southern part of the study area yielded less suspended sediment, with Little Grasshopper Creek near Effingham, Kansas, yielding 493 tons per square mile per year and Little Delaware River near Horton, Kansas, yielding 557 tons per square mile per year. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

The geography and geology of Alaska; a summary of existing knowledge, with a section on climate, and a topographic map and description thereof

Alaska, the largest outlying possession of the United States, is that great land mass forming the northwestern extremity of the North American continent, whose western point is within 60 miles of the Asiatic coast (PI. II). About one-quarter of this area lies within the Arctic Circle, and from the standpoint of geographic position must be regarded as an arctic province; but the southern seaboard, exposed to the warm winds and waters of the Pacific, gives to the entire southern portion of the territory" a comparatively warm climate. It is not generally realized that the range of climate in Alaska is greater than that between Florida and Maine. At the southernmost point of the Pacific coast the mean annual temperature is not far from that of the city of Washington, the winters being warmer and characterized by less snowfall; the Yukon Valley on the other hand has a winter climate similar to that of northern Montana and Dakota; while in the extreme northern part of the territory the meteorologic conditions are invariably arctic. Though as yet only sparsely settled, Alaska's vast area and great resources make it one of the most important possessions of the United States and promise its rapid development. During the years 1890 to 1900 the population increased from 32,052* to 63,592. The mineral output, which in 1890 was valued at less than $800,000, exceeded $9,000,000 in 1904, and the fisheries show a corresponding growth. This rapid development has attracted public attention and led to urgent demand for explorations, surveys, and other investigations. So actively has this work been pushed, both by public and private enterprise, that exact knowledge of the geography, geology, and mineral resources of the interior has made greater strides within the last eight years than during the preceding thirty-one years since the acquisition of Alaska. The facts regarding the geography and geology, scattered as they are through the many books and reports of this period, are not always readily accessible, and the time seems ripe to present them in a summarized form. The topography of Alaska is varied and complex (see PI. I), and it is not easy to present briefly even the salient features. The limited number of pages here devoted to the subject precludes the possibility of detailed treatment, even if the facts were available. Much of the description has been taken from the results attained by other investigators, the writer being personally familiar with only a part of this large province. A list of the publications consulted is appended. The larger geographic features of Alaska are now fairly well known, though the detailed surveys which are demanded by the development of many localities have hardly been begun. Preliminary surveys have been completed of all but three 8 of the larger rivers. The most important mountain ranges have been at least outlined (fig. 3). Only three large areas remain almost entirely unmapped: One in southwestern Alaska, between Cook Inlet and the lower Kuskokwim, and the others in northern Alaska, embracing the Arctic watershed east and west of the Colville River. Nearly all the surveys of the interior, however, have been of a preliminary and exploratory character, and to meet the requirements of exact geography must be followed by more detailed mensuration. Though the coast line has been fairly well known for more than half a century, knowledge of the interior has been gained chiefly within the last two decades. This has not yet found its way into text-books and has too often been entirely ignored by cartographers. If facts are presented which may seem elementary, it is because even well-informed people have been known to harbor misconceptions in regard to the orographic features, climate, and general character of Alaska. Those who read of the perils and privations of winter travel and explorations are apt to picture a region of ice and snow; others, again, who have personal knowledge of the tourist route of southeastern Alaska, regard the whole district as one of rugged mountains and glaciers. In point of fact, glaciers are now nearly limited to the ranges bordering the Pacific and to the two slopes of the Alaska range; and even during the greatest development of glaciers but a small portion of Alaska was under ice (see map, PI. XXII). As a treatise on geography would hardly be complete without some discussion of the climate, meteorologic data have been compiled by Mr. Cleveland Abbe, jr., but the discussion of this does not pretend to be more than a cursory treatment of the subject. The scope of the paper seems to require also a brief summary of the development of geographic knowledge of Alaska. This subject, with its many ramifications, is of fascinating interest and offers a magnificent field for the trained historian. If the accompanying sketch of discovery and exploration awakens any measure of popular interest the writer will feel amply rewarded for having attacked a theme which hardly falls within the scope of his investigations. When this compilation was begun it was intended to be chiefly a description of the topography of Alaska, as illustrated by the accompanying map (PI. XXXIV, in pocket), which was compiled under the direction of the late R. U. Goode. In the course of the work there accumulated much geologic as well as geographic material which seemed worthy of inclusion in the report. As no comprehensive statement of the geology of Alaska has been made since the modern epoch of investigation was begun, an attempt will be made to give a summary of all results achieved. Since the writer has obtained much of his knowledge of the facts from the work of others, he disclaims any pretense of making an entirely original contribution to geologic science. He feels, however, that a personal familiarity with a considerable part of the province, gained during seven consecutive seasons of field work, will justify Mm in presenting conclusions which may in some cases be at variance with those in the reports on which he must draw for his facts. Throughout this report attempt will be made to credit borrowed material to the source from which it is drawn. Where such matter has been obtained entirely from published reports there is no difficulty in so doing; but as regards investigators of the Geological Survey, with whom the writer has collaborated both in field and in office, the case is somewhat different, for it is not always possible to know whether this or that theory originated with the writer or with one of his colleagues. It will, then, perhaps suffice to state that this report could not have been prepared without the explorations and researches of the geologists, F. C. Schrader, Walter C. Mendenhall, Arthur J. Collier, J. E. Spurr, and Arthur C. Spencer; and the surveys of the topographers, T. G. Gerdine, D. C. Witherspoon, D. L. Reaburn, W. J. Peters, and E. C. Barnard. Each of these men, in the course of from two to six years of field work, has made important contributions to the knowledge of the geography and geology of Alaska, and not all of these results have yet been put in print. In the last season (1903) L. M. Prindle, C. W. Wright, Arthur Hollick, G. C. Martin, F. L. Hess, and Fred H. Moffit have carried on geologic work in Alaska, and the writer has made use of their work now in course of publication. He has also been fortunate in having access to the manuscript reports of Walter C. Mendenhall and F. C. Schrader on the Copper River basin, to which references will be made. The matter here presented should be credited in a measure to all of these investigators, but for many of the theories advanced the writer alone is responsible. As this manuscript goes to press there has been opportunity to incorporate some of the results of the field work of 1904. As far as possible these have been embodied in the text, but in some instances it has been found advisable to add them only as footnotes. During the past summer F. E. and C. W. Wright extended the geologic reconnaissance in southeastern Alaska. In southwestern Alaska G. C. Martin and T. W. Stanton have determined the general Mesozoic section, while F. H. Moffit has made a reconnaissance of the northern part of the Kenai Peninsula. A. J. Collier has mapped the geology of the Cape Lisburne region, and L. M. Prindle and F. L. Hess have made contributions to the knowledge of the metamorphic terranes of the Yukon-Tanana district. It is the writer's purpose to describe in nontechnical language the larger geographic features and discuss their relation as far as the data available will permit. In the treatment of the geology, however, less effort will be made to make the matter acceptable to the lay reader. It is hoped, however, that a brief summary of the salient features of the geologic history' may be not without interest to the general public. If this paper serves in some measure to dispel the popular fallacies regarding Alaska and to disseminate more accurate knowledge of its geographic and geologic features, the purpose of its publication will be accomplished.

Alaska↗

Cost-effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in Iowa

This report documents the results of a study of the cost-effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in Iowa. Data uses and funding sources were identified for the 122 surface-water stations (including reservoir, lake, stage only, and miscellaneous stations) operated by the U. S. Geological Survey in Iowa. There are 110 continuous streamflow stations currently being operated in Iowa with an annual budget of $592,000. The average standard error of estimation in continuous streamflow records is 11.4 percent. It was shown that this overall degree of accuracy at the 110 continuous streamflow stations could be improved to 10.5 percent if the gaging schedule was optimized. A minimum budget of $543,000 is required to operate the present streamgaging program in Iowa. With this budget, routine visits to gages would be decreased to five during the open-water season and three during the winter. A budget less than this does not permit proper maintenance of the gages and recorders. At the minimum budget, the average standard error would be 12.5 percent. The maximum budget analyzed was $1,235,000, which resulted in an average standard error of 4.2 percent. A 10 percent increase in the current budget to $656,000 would result in a standard error of 8.4 percent. There are still a few basins with drainage areas greater than 200 square miles that have no continuous streamflow data. Continuous streamflow gages need to be established in these basins as funds become available. All stations in the current program need to be maintained for the forseeable future. Data simulated by using the flow-routing and regression methods for stations in 6 river basins do not meet the accuracy required for their data use. Other basins will be studied later to determine if alternative methods to meet accuracy standards are feasible.

Iowa↗