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Methods for estimating monthly and annual streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Utah

The monthly 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows were calculated for 266 streamflow-gaging stations in Utah and the surrounding states. Using geographic information systems software, 24 physiographic and climatic basin characteristics were computed for each gaging station location. Using these data, regional regression equations were created to predict monthly 80-, 50-, and 20-percent streamflow and annual mean streamflow at ungaged sites in Utah. The state of Utah was divided into seven distinct geohydrologic regions on the basis of a variety of physiographic, climatic, and hydrologic characteristics. Separate regression equations were developed for each region except region 3, which was combined with region 5 because of the small number of gaging stations in region 3. Root mean square error percent for the equations ranged from 34 to 379 percent. The equations are more reliable for predicting high-streamflow statistics (20-percent exceedance) than for predicting the low-streamflow statistics (80-percent exceedance). In general, the mean annual streamflow equations had smaller errors than the monthly predicting equations. The developed equations documented in this report will be implemented in StreamStats, a USGS Web-based tool that allows users to obtain a variety of streamflow statistics and basin characteristics by selecting a location on a map interface.

Utah↗

Simulations of Groundwater Flow and Particle Tracking Analysis in the Area Contributing Recharge to a Public-Supply Well near Tampa, Florida, 2002-05

Shallow ground water in the north-central Tampa Bay region, Florida, is affected by elevated nitrate concentrations, the presence of volatile organic compounds, and pesticides as a result of groundwater development and intensive urban land use. The region relies primarily on groundwater for drinking-water supplies. Sustainability of groundwater quality for public supply requires monitoring and understanding of the mechanisms controlling the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination. A single public-supply well was selected for intensive study based on the need to evaluate the dominant processes affecting the vulnerability of public-supply wells in the Upper Floridan aquifer in the City of Temple Terrace near Tampa, Florida, and the presence of a variety of chemical constituents in water from the well. A network of 29 monitoring wells was installed, and water and sediment samples were collected within the area contributing recharge to the selected public-supply well to support a detailed analysis of physical and chemical conditions and processes affecting the water chemistry in the well. A three-dimensional, steady-state groundwater flow model was developed to evaluate the age of groundwater reaching the well and to test hypotheses on the vulnerability of the well to nonpoint source input of nitrate. Particle tracking data were used to calculate environmental tracer concentrations of tritium and sulfur hexafluoride and to calibrate traveltimes and compute flow paths and advective travel times in the model area. The traveltime of particles reaching the selected public-supply well ranged from less than 1 day to 127.0 years, with a median of 13.1 years; nearly 45 percent of the simulated particle ages were less than about 10 years. Nitrate concentrations, derived primarily from residential/commercial fertilizer use and atmospheric deposition, were highest (2.4 and 6.11 milligrams per liter as nitrogen, median and maximum, respectively) in shallow groundwater from the surficial aquifer system and lowest (less than the detection level of 0.06 milligram per liter) in the deeper Upper Floridan aquifer. Denitrification occurred near the interface of the surficial aquifer system and the underlying intermediate confining unit, within the intermediate confining unit, and within the Upper Floridan aquifer because of reducing conditions in this part of the flow system. However, simulations indicate that the rapid movement of water from the surficial aquifer system to the selected public-supply well through karst features (sinkholes) and conduit layers that bypass the denitrifying zones (short-circuits), coupled with high pumping rates, allow nitrate to reach the selected public-supply well in concentrations that resemble those of the overlying surficial aquifer system. Water from the surficial aquifer system with elevated concentrations of nitrate and low concentrations of some volatile organic compounds and pesticides is expected to continue moving into the selected public-supply well, because calculated flux-weighted concentrations indicate the proportion of young affected water contributing to the well is likely to remain relatively stable over time. The calculated nitrate concentration in the selected public-supply well indicates a lag of 1 to 10 years between peak concentrations of nonpoint source contaminants in recharge and appearance in the well.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrologic and Water-Quality Conditions During Restoration of the Wood River Wetland, Upper Klamath River Basin, Oregon, 2003-05

Restoring previously drained wetlands is a strategy currently being used to improve water quality and decrease nutrient loading into Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. In this 2003-05 study, ground- and surface-water quality and hydrologic conditions were characterized in the Wood River Wetland. Nitrogen and phosphorus levels, primarily as dissolved organic nitrogen and ammonium (NH4) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), were high in surface waters. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations also were elevated in surface water, with median concentrations of 44 and 99 milligrams of carbon per liter (mg-C/L) in the North and South Units of the Wood River Wetland, respectively, reaching a maximum of 270 mg-C/L in the South Unit in late autumn. Artesian well water produced NH4 and SRP concentrations of about 6,000 micrograms per liter (ug/L), and concentrations of 36,500 ug-N/L NH4 and 4,110 ug-P/L SRP in one 26-28 ft deep piezometer well. Despite the high ammonium concentrations, the nitrate levels were moderate to low in wetland surface and ground waters. The surface-water concentrations of NH4 and SRP increased in spring and summer, outpacing those for chloride (a conservative tracer), indicative of evapoconcentration. In-situ chamber experiments conducted in June and August 2005 indicated a positive flux of NH4 and SRP from the wetland sediments. Potential sources of NH4 and SRP include diffusion of nutrients from decomposed peat, decomposing aquatic vegetation, or upwelling ground water. In addition to these inputs, evapoconcentration raised surface-water solute concentrations to exceedingly high values by the end of summer. The increase was most pronounced in the South Unit, where specific conductance reached 2,500 uS/cm and median concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus reached 18,000-36,500 ug-N/L and about 18,000-26,000 ug-P/L, respectively. Water-column SRP and total phosphorus levels decreased during autumn and winter following inputs of irrigation water and precipitation, which have lower nutrient concentrations. The SRP concentrations, however, decreased faster than the dilution rate alone, possibly due to precipitation of phosphorus with iron, manganese, or calcium. The high concentrations of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus during the growing season give rise to a rich plant community in the wetland consisting of emergent and submergent macrophytes and algae including phytoplankton and benthic and epiphytic algae that have pronounced effects on dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH. Midday readings of surface-water DO during summer often were supersaturated (as much as 310 percent saturation) with elevated pH (as much as 9.2 units), indicative of high rates of photosynthesis. Minimum DO concentrations in the shallow ground-water piezometer wells were 0.4 mg/L in the North Unit and 0.8 mg/L in the South Unit during summer, which is probably low enough to support microbial denitrification. Denitrification was confirmed during in-situ experiments conducted at the sediment-water interface, but rates were low due to low background nitrate (NO3). Nevertheless, denitrification (and plant uptake) likely contribute to low nitrate levels. Another possible cause of low nitrate levels is dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonia (DNRA), a microbial process that converts and decreases nitrate to ammonia. DNRA explains the excess ammonia production measured in the chambers treated with nitrate. Surface-water levels and standing surface-water volume in the Wood River Wetland reached a maximum in early spring, inundating 80-90 percent of the wetland. Surface-water levels and standing volume then declined reaching a minimum in August through November, when the South Unit was only 10 percent inundated and the North Unit was nearly dry. The shallow ground-water levels followed a trend similar to surface-water levels and indicated a strong upward gradient. A monthly water budget was developed individually for the North

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington

A set of watershed models for four basins (Crab Creek, Rocky Ford Creek, Rocky Coulee, and Lind Coulee), draining into Potholes Reservoir in east-central Washington, was developed as part of a decision support system to aid the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, in managing water resources in east-central Washington State. The project is part of the U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Reclamation collaborative Watershed and River Systems Management Program. A conceptual model of hydrology is outlined for the study area that highlights the significant processes that are important to accurately simulate discharge under a wide range of conditions. The conceptual model identified the following factors as significant for accurate discharge simulations: (1) influence of frozen ground on peak discharge, (2) evaporation and ground-water flow as major pathways in the system, (3) channel losses, and (4) influence of irrigation practices on reducing or increasing discharge. The Modular Modeling System was used to create a watershed model for the four study basins by combining standard Precipitation Runoff Modeling System modules with modified modules from a previous study and newly modified modules. The model proved unreliable in simulating peak-flow discharge because the index used to track frozen ground conditions was not reliable. Mean monthly and mean annual discharges were more reliable when simulated. Data from seven USGS streamflow-gaging stations were used to compare with simulated discharge for model calibration and evaluation. Mean annual differences between simulated and observed discharge varied from 1.2 to 13.8 percent for all stations used in the comparisons except one station on a regional ground-water discharge stream. Two thirds of the mean monthly percent differences between the simulated mean and the observed mean discharge for these six stations were between -20 and 240 percent, or in absolute terms, between -0.8 and 11 cubic feet per second. A graphical user interface was developed for the user to easily run the model, make runoff forecasts, and evaluate the results. The models; however, are not reliable for managing short-term operations because of their demonstrated inability to match individual storm peaks and individual monthly discharge values. Short-term forecasting may be improved with real-time monitoring of the extent of frozen ground and the snow-water equivalent in the basin. Despite the models unreliability for short-term runoff forecasts, they are useful in providing long-term, time-series discharge data where no observed data exist.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Design and Performance of an Enhanced Bioremediation Pilot Test in a Tidal Wetland Seep, West Branch Canal Creek, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

Because of a lack of available in situ remediation methods for sensitive wetland environments where contaminated groundwater discharges, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Garrison, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, conceived, designed, and pilot tested a permeable reactive mat that can be placed horizontally at the groundwater/surface-water interface. Development of the reactive mat was part of an enhanced bioremediation study in a tidal wetland area along West Branch Canal Creek at Aberdeen Proving Ground, where localized areas of preferential discharge (seeps) transport groundwater contaminated with carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, tetrachloroethene, trichloroethene, and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane from the Canal Creek aquifer to land surface. The reactive mat consisted of a mixture of commercially available organic- and nutrient-rich peat and compost that was bioaugmented with a dechlorinating microbial consortium, WBC-2, developed for this study. Due to elevated chlorinated methane concentrations in the pilot test site, a layer of zero-valent iron mixed with the peat and compost was added at the base of the reactive mat to promote simultaneous abiotic and biotic degradation. The reactive mat for the pilot test area was designed to optimize chlorinated volatile organic compound degradation efficiency without altering the geotechnical and hydraulic characteristics, or creating undesirable water quality in the surrounding wetland area, which is referred to in this report as achieving geotechnical, hydraulic, and water-quality compatibility. Optimization of degradation efficiency was achieved through the selection of a sustainable organic reactive matrix, electron donor, and bioaugmentation method. Consideration of geotechnical compatibility through design calculations of bearing capacity, settlement, and geotextile selection showed that a 2- to 3-feet tolerable thickness of the mat was possible, with 0.17 feet settlement predicted for unconsolidated sediments between 1.5 and 6 years following installation of the reactive mat. To ensure hydraulic compatibility in the mat design, mat materials that had a hydraulic conductivity greater than the surrounding wetland sediments were selected, and the mixture was optimized to consist of 1.5 parts compost, 1.5 parts peat and 1 part sand as a safeguard against fluidization. Sediment and matrix properties also indicated that a nonwoven geotextile with a cross-plane flow greater than that of the native sediments was suitable as the base of the reactive mat. Another nonwoven geotextile was selected for installation between the iron mix and organic zones of the mat to create more laminar flow conditions within the mat. Total metals and sequential extraction procedure analyses of mat materials, which were conducted to evaluate water-quality compatibility of the mat materials, showed that concentrations of metals in the compost ranged from one-half to one order of magnitude below consensus-based probable effect concentrations in sediment. A 22-inch-thick reactive mat, containing 0.5 percent WBC-2 by volume, was constructed at seep area 3-4W and monitored from October 2004 through October 2005 for the pilot test. No local, immediate failure of the mat or of wetland sediments was observed during mat installation, indicating that design estimates of bearing capacity and geotextile textile selection ensured the integrity of the mat and wetland sediments during and following installation. Measurements of surface elevation of the mat showed an average settlement of the mat surface of approximately 0.25 feet after 10 months, which was near the predicted settlement for unconsolidated sediment. Monitoring showed rapid establishment and sustainment throughout the year of methanogenic conditions conducive to anaerobic biodegradation and efficient dechlorination activity by WBC-2. The median mass removal of chloromethanes and total chloroethenes and ethane during the

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Description and evaluation of numerical groundwater flow models for the Edwards Aquifer, south-central Texas

A substantial number of public water system wells in south-central Texas withdraw groundwater from the karstic, highly productive Edwards aquifer. However, the use of numerical groundwater flow models to aid in the delineation of contributing areas for public water system wells in the Edwards aquifer is problematic because of the complex hydrogeologic framework and the presence of conduit-dominated flow paths in the aquifer. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, evaluated six published numerical groundwater flow models (all deterministic) that have been developed for the Edwards aquifer San Antonio segment or Barton Springs segment, or both. This report describes the models developed and evaluates each with respect to accessibility and ease of use, range of conditions simulated, accuracy of simulations, agreement with dye-tracer tests, and limitations of the models. These models are (1) GWSIM model of the San Antonio segment, a FORTRAN computer-model code that pre-dates the development of MODFLOW; (2) MODFLOW conduit-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (3) MODFLOW diffuse-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (4) MODFLOW Groundwater Availability Modeling [GAM] model of the Barton Springs segment; (5) MODFLOW recalibrated GAM model of the Barton Springs segment; and (6) MODFLOW–DCM (dual conductivity model) conduit model of the Barton Springs segment. The GWSIM model code is not commercially available, is limited in its application to the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer, and lacks the ability of MODFLOW to easily incorporate newly developed processes and packages to better simulate hydrologic processes. MODFLOW is a widely used and tested code for numerical modeling of groundwater flow, is well documented, and is in the public domain. These attributes make MODFLOW a preferred code with regard to accessibility and ease of use. The MODFLOW conduit-flow model incorporates improvements over previous models by using (1) a user-friendly interface, (2) updated computer codes (MODFLOW–96 and MODFLOW–2000), (3) a finer grid resolution, (4) less-restrictive boundary conditions, (5) an improved discretization of hydraulic conductivity, (6) more accurate estimates of pumping stresses, (7) a long transient simulation period (54 years, 1947–2000), and (8) a refined representation of high-permeability zones or conduits. All of the models except the MODFLOW–DCM conduit model have limitations resulting from the use of Darcy’s law to simulate groundwater flow in a karst aquifer system where non-Darcian, turbulent flow might actually dominate. The MODFLOW–DCM conduit model is an improvement in the ability to simulate karst-like flow conditions in conjunction with porous-media-type matrix flow. However, the MODFLOW–DCM conduit model has had limited application and testing and currently (2008) lacks commercially available pre- and post-processors. The MODFLOW conduit-flow and diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer models are limited by the lack of calibration for the northern part of the Barton Springs segment (Travis County) and their reliance on the use of the calibrated hydraulic conductivity and storativity values from the calibrated Barton Springs segment GAM model. The major limitation of the Barton Springs segment GAM and recalibrated GAM models is that they were calibrated to match measured water levels and springflows for a restrictive range of hydrologic conditions, with each model having different hydraulic conductivity and storativity values appropriate to the hydrologic conditions that were simulated. The need for two different sets of hydraulic conductivity and storativity values increases the uncertainty associated with the accuracy of either set of values, illustrates the non-uniqueness of the model solution, and probably most importantly demonstrates the limitations of using a one-layer model to represent the heterogeneous hydrostratigraphic units composing the Edwards aquifer. In general, the best matches or agreement between groundwater flow directions inferred by numerical model simulation, and by dye-tracer tests, are observed where model outputs accurately reproduce the configuration of the potentiometric surface with regard to the positions of major and minor groundwater troughs and divides. None of the models, with the possible exception of the MODFLOW–DCM conduit model, has a documented capability to accurately simulate travel times for conduit-dominated velocities in the Edwards aquifer. Public water system assessments of wells in the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards aquifer, and elsewhere where conduit-flow conditions are thought to dominate aquifer hydraulic behavior, might be enhanced by use of either the MODFLOW–DCM model or the newly developed U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW Conduit-Flow Process module for MODFLOW–2005, because each incorporates a type of dual or triple hydraulic conductivity approach and has the capability to explicitly simulate turbulent flow and conduit hydraulic characteristics.

Texas↗

Sources of groundwater based on Helium analyses in and near the freshwater/saline-water transition zone of the San Antonio segment of the Edwards Aquifer, South-Central Texas, 2002-03

This report evaluates dissolved noble gas data, specifically helium-3 and helium-4, collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, during 2002-03. Helium analyses are used to provide insight into the sources of groundwater in the freshwater/saline-water transition zone of the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer. Sixty-nine dissolved gas samples were collected from 19 monitoring wells (categorized as fresh, transitional, or saline on the basis of dissolved solids concentration in samples from the wells or from fluid-profile logging of the boreholes) arranged in five transects, with one exception, across the freshwater/saline-water interface (the 1,000-milligrams-per-liter dissolved solids concentration threshold) of the Edwards aquifer. The concentration of helium-4 (the dominant isotope in atmospheric and terrigenic helium) in samples ranged from 63 microcubic centimeters per kilogram at standard temperature (20 degrees Celsius) and pressure (1 atmosphere) in a well in the East Uvalde transect to 160,587 microcubic centimeters per kilogram at standard temperature and pressure in a well in the Kyle transect. Helium-4 concentrations in the 10 saline wells generally increase from the western transects to the eastern transects. Increasing helium-4 concentrations from southwest to northeast in the transition zone, indicating increasing residence time of groundwater from southwest to northeast, is consistent with the longstanding conceptualization of the Edwards aquifer in which water recharges in the southwest, flows generally northeasterly (including in the transition zone, although more slowly than in the fresh-water zone), and discharges at major springs in the northeast. Excess helium-4 was greater than 1,000 percent for 60 of the 69 samples, indicating that terrigenic helium is largely present and that most of the excess helium-4 comes from sources other than the atmosphere. The helium data of this report cannot be used to identify sources of groundwater in and near the transition zone of the Edwards aquifer in terms of specific geologic (stratigraphic) units or hydrogeologic units (aquifers or confining units). However, the data indicate that the source or sources of the helium, and thus the water in which the helium is dissolved, in the transition zone are mostly terrigenic in origin rather than atmospheric. Whether most helium in and near the transition zone of the Edwards aquifer originated either in rocks outside the transition zone and at depth or in the adjacent Trinity aquifer is uncertain; but most of the helium in the transition zone had to enter the transition zone from the Trinity aquifer because the Trinity aquifer is the hydrogeologic unit immediately beneath and laterally adjacent to the transition zone of the Edwards aquifer. Thus the helium data support a hypothesis of sufficient hydraulic connection between the Trinity and Edwards aquifers to allow movement of water from the Trinity aquifer to the transition zone of the Edwards aquifer.

Texas↗

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion-A guide to using PEST for groundwater-model calibration

Highly parameterized groundwater models can create calibration difficulties. Regularized inversion-the combined use of large numbers of parameters with mathematical approaches for stable parameter estimation-is becoming a common approach to address these difficulties and enhance the transfer of information contained in field measurements to parameters used to model that system. Though commonly used in other industries, regularized inversion is somewhat imperfectly understood in the groundwater field. There is concern that this unfamiliarity can lead to underuse, and misuse, of the methodology. This document is constructed to facilitate the appropriate use of regularized inversion for calibrating highly parameterized groundwater models. The presentation is directed at an intermediate- to advanced-level modeler, and it focuses on the PEST software suite-a frequently used tool for highly parameterized model calibration and one that is widely supported by commercial graphical user interfaces. A brief overview of the regularized inversion approach is provided, and techniques for mathematical regularization offered by PEST are outlined, including Tikhonov, subspace, and hybrid schemes. Guidelines for applying regularized inversion techniques are presented after a logical progression of steps for building suitable PEST input. The discussion starts with use of pilot points as a parameterization device and processing/grouping observations to form multicomponent objective functions. A description of potential parameter solution methodologies and resources available through the PEST software and its supporting utility programs follows. Directing the parameter-estimation process through PEST control variables is then discussed, including guidance for monitoring and optimizing the performance of PEST. Comprehensive listings of PEST control variables, and of the roles performed by PEST utility support programs, are presented in the appendixes.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulation of specific conductance and chloride concentration in Abercorn Creek, Georgia, 2000-2009

The City of Savannah operates an industrial and domestic water-supply intake on Abercorn Creek approximately 2 miles from the confluence with the Savannah River upstream from the Interstate 95 bridge. Chloride concentrations are a major concern for the city because industrial customers require water with low chloride concentrations, and elevated chloride concentrations require additional water treatment in order to meet those needs. The proposed deepening of Savannah Harbor could increase chloride concentrations (the major ion in seawater) in the upper reaches of the lower Savannah River estuary, including Abercorn Creek. To address this concern, mechanistic and empirical modeling approaches were used to simulate chloride concentrations at the city's intake to evaluate potential effects from deepening the Savannah Harbor. The first approach modified the mechanistic Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model developed by Tetra Tech and used for evaluating proposed harbor deepening effects for the Environmental Impact Statement. Chloride concentrations were modeled directly with the EFDC model as a conservative tracer. This effort was done by Tetra Tech under a separate funding agreement with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and documented in a separate report. The second approach, described in this report, was to simulate chloride concentrations by developing empirical models from the available data using artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression models. The empirical models used daily streamflow, specific conductance (field measurement for salinity), water temperature, and water color time series for inputs. Because there are only a few data points that describe the relation between high specific conductance values at the Savannah River at Interstate 95 and the water plant intake, there was a concern that these few data points would determine the extrapolation of the empirical model and potentially underestimate the effect of deepening the harbor on chloride concentrations at the intake. To accommodate these concerns, two ANN chloride models were developed for the intake. The first model (ANN M1e) used all the data. The second model (ANN M2e) only used data when specific conductance at Interstate 95 was less than 175 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius. Deleting the conductivity data greater than 175 microsiemens per centimeter removed the "plateau" effect observed in the data. The chloride simulations with the ANN M1 model have a low sensitivity to specific conductance (salinity) at Interstate 95, whereas the chloride simulations with the ANN M2 model have a high sensitivity to salinity at Interstate 95. The two modeling approaches (Tetra Tech's EFDC model and the one described in this report) were integrated into a decision support system (DSS) that combines the historical database, output from EFDC, ANN models, ANN model simulation controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The DSS was developed as a Microsoft ExcelTM/Visual Basic for Applications program, which allowed the DSS to be prototyped, easily modified, and distributed in a familiar spreadsheet format. The EFDC and ANN models were used to simulate various harbor deepening scenarios. To accommodate the geometry changes in the harbor, the ANN models used the EFDC model-simulated salinity changes for a historical condition as input. The DSS uses a graphical user interface and allows the user to interrogate the ANN models and EFDC output. Two scenarios were simulated using the Savannah Chloride Model DSS to demonstrate different input options. One scenario decreased winter streamflows to a constant streamflow for 45 days. Streamflows during the period January 1 to February 15 were set to a constant 3,600 cubic feet per second for the simulation period of October 1, 2006, to October 1, 2009. The decreased winter streamflow resulted in predictions of increased specific conductance by as much as 50 microsiemens per centimeter and chlorid

Georgia↗

Phase II modification of the W ater A vailability T ool for E nvironmental R esources (WATER) for Kentucky: The sinkhole-drainage process, point-and-click basin delineation, and results of karst test-basin simulations

This report describes Phase II modifications made to the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER), which applies the process-based TOPMODEL approach to simulate or predict stream discharge in surface basins in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. The previous (Phase I) version of WATER did not provide a means of identifying sinkhole catchments or accounting for the effects of karst (internal) drainage in a TOPMODEL-simulated basin. In the Phase II version of WATER, sinkhole catchments are automatically identified and delineated as internally drained subbasins, and a modified TOPMODEL approach (called the sinkhole drainage process, or SDP-TOPMODEL) is applied that calculates mean daily discharges for the basin based on summed area-weighted contributions from sinkhole drain-age (SD) areas and non-karstic topographically drained (TD) areas. Results obtained using the SDP-TOPMODEL approach were evaluated for 12 karst test basins located in each of the major karst terrains in Kentucky. Visual comparison of simulated hydrographs and flow-duration curves, along with statistical measures applied to the simulated discharge data (bias, correlation, root mean square error, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients), indicate that the SDPOPMODEL approach provides acceptably accurate estimates of discharge for most flow conditions and typically provides more accurate simulation of stream discharge in karstic basins compared to the standard TOPMODEL approach. Additional programming modifications made to the Phase II version of WATER included implementation of a point-and-click graphical user interface (GUI), which fully automates the delineation of simulation-basin boundaries and improves the speed of input-data processing. The Phase II version of WATER enables the user to select a pour point anywhere on a stream reach of interest, and the program will automatically delineate all upstream areas that contribute drainage to that point. This capability enables automatic delineation of a simulation basin of any size (area) and having any level of stream-network complexity. WATER then automatically identifies the presence of sinkholes catchments within the simulation basin boundaries; extracts and compiles the necessary climatic, topographic, and basin characteristics datasets; and runs the SDP-TOPMODEL approach to estimate daily mean discharges (streamflow).

Kentucky↗

Evaluation of effects of changes in canal management and precipitation patterns on salinity in Biscayne Bay, Florida, using an integrated surface-water/groundwater model

Biscayne National Park, located in Biscayne Bay in southeast Florida, is one of the largest marine parks in the country and sustains a large natural marine fishery where numerous threatened and endangered species reproduce. In recent years, the bay has experienced hypersaline conditions (salinity greater than 35 practical salinity units) of increasing magnitude and duration. Hypersalinity events were particularly pronounced during April to August 2004 in nearshore areas along the southern and middle parts of the bay. Prolonged hypersaline conditions can cause degradation of water quality and permanent damage to, or loss of, brackish nursery habitats for multiple species of fish and crustaceans as well as damage to certain types of seagrasses that are not tolerant of extreme changes in salinity. To evaluate the factors that contribute to hypersalinity events and to test the effects of possible changes in precipitation patterns and canal flows into Biscayne Bay on salinity in the bay, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a coupled surface-water/groundwater numerical flow model. The model is designed to account for freshwater flows into Biscayne Bay through the canal system, leakage of salty bay water into the underlying Biscayne aquifer, discharge of fresh and salty groundwater from the Biscayne aquifer into the bay, direct effects of precipitation on bay salinity, indirect effects of precipitation on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, direct effects of evapotranspiration (ET) on bay salinity, indirect effects of ET on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, and maintenance of mass balance of both water and solute. The model was constructed using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator, version 3.3, which couples the two-dimensional, surface-water flow and solute-transport simulator SWIFT2D with the density-dependent, groundwater flow an solute-transport simulator SEAWAT. The model was calibrated by a trial-and-error method to fit observed groundwater heads, estimated base flow, and measured bay salinity and temperatures from 1996 to 2004, as well as the location of the freshwater-saltwater interface in the aquifer, by adjusting ET rate limiters, canal vertical hydraulic conductance, leakage rate coefficients (transition-layer thickness and hydraulic conductivity), Manning's n value, and delineation of rainfall zones. Although flow budget calculations indicate that precipitation, ET, and groundwater flux into the bay represent a small portion of the overall budget, these factors may be important in controlling salinity in some parts of the bay, for example the southern parts of the bay where the canal system is not extensively developed or controlled. The balance of precipitation and ET during the wet season generally results in a reduction of bay salinity, whereas the balance of precipitation and ET during the dry season generally results in an increase in bay salinity. During years when wet season precipitation is lower than average, for example less than 70 percent total precipitation for an average year, ET could outweigh precipitation over the bay for essentially the entire year. Hypersaline conditions are prone to occur near the end of the dry season because precipitation rates are generally lower, canal discharge rates (which are strongly correlated to precipitation rates) are also generally lower, and ET rates are higher than during the rest of the year. The hypersalinity event of 2004 followed several years of relatively low precipitation and correspondingly reduced canal structure releases and was unusually extensive, continuing into July. Thus, hypersalinity is ultimately the result of a cumulative deficit of precipitation. The model was used to test the effects of possible changes in canal flux and precipitation. Simulation results showed that by increasing, reducing, or modifying canal discharge rates, the effects on salinity in the bay were more pronounced in the northern part of the bay where there are more canals and canal-control structures. By doubling and halving precipitation, the effects on bay salinity were more pronounced in the southern part of the bay than in the northern part of the bay where there are fewer canals and canal-control structures. The model is designed to quantify factors that contribute to hypersaline conditions in Biscayne Bay and may be less appropriate for addressing other issues or examining conditions substantially different from those described in this report. Model results must be interpreted in light of model limitations, which include representation of the system and conceptual model, uncertainty in physical properties used to describe the system or processes, the scale and discretization of the system, and representation of the boundary conditions.

Florida↗

The development and application of a decision support system for land management in the Lake Tahoe Basin—The Land Use Simulation Model

This report describes and applies the Land Use Simulation Model (LUSM), the final modeling product for the long-term decision support project funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center for the Lake Tahoe Basin. Within the context of the natural-resource management and anthropogenic issues of the basin and in an effort to advance land-use and land-cover change science, this report addresses the problem of developing the LUSM as a decision support system. It includes consideration of land-use modeling theory, fire modeling and disturbance in the wildland-urban interface, historical land-use change and its relation to active land management, hydrologic modeling and the impact of urbanization as related to the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board’s recently developed Total Maximum Daily Load report for the basin, and biodiversity in urbanizing areas. The LUSM strives to inform land-management decisions in a complex regulatory environment by simulating parcel-based, land-use transitions with a stochastic, spatially constrained, agent-based model. The tool is intended to be useful for multiple purposes, including the multiagency Pathway 2007 regional planning effort, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) Regional Plan Update, and complementary research endeavors and natural-resource-management efforts. The LUSM is an Internet-based, scenario-generation decision support tool for allocating retired and developed parcels over the next 20 years. Because USGS staff worked closely with TRPA staff and their “Code of Ordinances” and analyzed datasets of historical management and land-use practices, this report accomplishes the task of providing reasonable default values for a baseline scenario that can be used in the LUSM. One result from the baseline scenario for the model suggests that all vacant parcels could be allocated within 12 years. Results also include: assessment of model functionality, brief descriptions of the 7 basic output tables, assessment of the rate of change in land-use allocation pools over time, locations and amounts of the spatially explicit probabilities of land-use transitions by real estate commodity, and analysis of the state change from today’s existing land cover to potential land uses in the future. Assumptions and limitations of the model are presented. This report concludes with suggested next steps to support the continued utility of the LUSM and additional research avenues.

Nevada↗

Two-dimensional simulation of the June 11, 2010, flood of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreational Area, Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas

In the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, substantial flooding occurred at Albert Pike Recreation Area in the Ouachita National Forest of west-central Arkansas, killing 20 campers. The U.S. Forest Service needed information concerning the extent and depth of flood inundation, the water velocity, and flow paths throughout Albert Pike Recreation Area for the flood and for streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The two-dimensional flow model Fst2DH, part of the Federal Highway Administration’s Finite Element Surface-water Modeling System, and the graphical user interface Surface-water Modeling System (SMS) were used to perform a steady-state simulation of the flood in a 1.5-mile reach of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreation Area. Peak streamflows of the Little Missouri River and tributary Brier Creek served as inputs to the simulation, which was calibrated to the surveyed elevations of high-water marks left by the flood and then used to predict flooding that would result from streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The simulated extent of the June 11, 2010, flood matched the observed extent of flooding at Albert Pike Recreation Area. The mean depth of inundation in the camp areas was 8.5 feet in Area D, 7.4 feet in Area C, 3.8 feet in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 12.5 feet in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. The mean water velocity was 7.2 feet per second in Area D, 7.6 feet per second in Area C, 7.2 feet per second in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 7.6 feet per second in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. A sensitivity analysis indicated that varying the streamflow of the Little Missouri River had the greatest effect on simulated water-surface elevation, while varying the streamflow of tributary Brier Creek had the least effect. Simulated water-surface elevations were lower than those modeled by the U.S. Forest Service using the standard-step method, but the comparison between the two was favorable with a mean absolute difference of 0.58 feet in Area C and 0.32 feet in Area D. Results of a HEC-RAS model of the Little Missouri River watershed upstream from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station near Langley showed no difference in mean depth in the areas in common between the models, and a difference in mean velocity of only 0.5 foot per second. Predictions of flooding that would result from streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent indicated that the extent of inundation of the June 11, 2010, flood exceeded that of the 1 percent flood, and that for both the 1 and 2 percent floods, all of Areas C and D, and parts of Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area were inundated. Predicted water-surface elevations for the 1 and 2 percent floods were approximately 1 foot lower than those predicted by the U.S. Forest Service using a standard-step model.

Arkansas↗

Simulation of salinity intrusion along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts using climate-change scenarios

Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. Changes in streamflow patterns in conjunction with sea-level rise may change the salinity-intrusion dynamics of coastal rivers. Several municipal water-supply intakes are located along the Georgia and South Carolina coast that are proximal to the present day saltwater-freshwater interface of tidal rivers. Increases in the extent of salinity intrusion resulting from climate change could threaten the availability of freshwater supplies in the vicinity of these intakes. To effectively manage these supplies, water-resource managers need estimates of potential changes in the frequency, duration, and magnitude of salinity intrusion near their water-supply intakes that may occur as a result of climate change. This study examines potential effects of climate change, including altered streamflow and sea-level rise, on the dynamics of saltwater intrusion near municipal water-supply intakes in two coastal areas. One area consists of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) and the Waccamaw River near Myrtle Beach along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina Coast, and the second area is on or near the lower Savannah River near Savannah, Georgia. The study evaluated how future sea-level rise and a reduction in streamflows can potentially affect salinity intrusion and threaten municipal water supplies and the biodiversity of freshwater tidal marshes in these two areas. Salinity intrusion occurs as a result of the interaction between three principal forces—streamflow, mean coastal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze and simulate salinity dynamics at critical coastal gaging stations near four municipal water-supply intakes, various data-mining techniques, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were used to evaluate hourly streamflow, salinity, and coastal water-level data collected over a period exceeding 10 years. The ANN models were trained (calibrated) to learn the specific interactions that cause salinity intrusions, and resulting models were able to accurately simulate historical salinity dynamics in both study areas. Changes in sea level and streamflow quantity and timing can be simulated by the salinity intrusion models to evaluate various climate-change scenarios. The salinity intrusion models for the study areas are deployed in a decision support system to facilitate the use of the models for management decisions by coastal water-resource managers. The report describes the use of the salinity-intrusion models decision support system to evaluate salinity-intrusion dynamics for various climate-change scenarios, including incremental increases in sea level in combination with incremental decreases in streamflow. Operation of municipal water-treatment plants is problematic when the specific-conductance values for source water are greater than 1,000 to 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter (µS/cm). High specific-conductance values contribute to taste problems that require treatment. Data from a gage downstream from a municipal water intake indicate specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm about 5.4 percent of the time over the 14-year period from August 1995 to August 2008. Simulations of specific conductance at this gaging station that incorporates sea-level rises resulted in a doubling of the exceedances to 11.0 percent for a 1-foot increase and 17.6 percent for a 2-foot increase. The frequency of intrusion of water with specific conductance values of 1,000 µS/cm was less sensitive to incremental reductions in streamflow than to incremental increases in sea level. Simulations of conditions associated with a 10-percent reduction in streamflow, in combination with a 1-foot rise in sea level, increased the percentage of time specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm at this site from 11.0 to 13.3 percent, and a 20-percent reduction in streamflow increased the percentage of time to 16.6 percent. Precipitation and temperature data from a global circulation model were used, after scale adjustments, as input to a watershed model of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River basin, which flows into the Waccamaw River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway study area in South Carolina. The simulated streamflow for historical conditions and projected climate change in the future was used as input for the ANN model in decision support system. Results of simulations incorporating climate-change projections for alterations in streamflow indicate an increase in the frequency of salinity-intrusion events and a shift in the seasonal occurrence of the intrusion events from the summer to the fall.

South Carolina↗

Plankton communities and summertime declines in algal abundance associated with low dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon

Phytoplankton populations in the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon are an important component of the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget of the river and are critical for maintaining DO levels in summer. During the low-flow summer period, sufficient nutrients and a long residence time typically combine with ample sunshine and warm water to fuel blooms of cryptophyte algae, diatoms, green and blue-green algae in the low-gradient, slow-moving reservoir reach of the lower river. Algae in the Tualatin River generally drift with the water rather than attach to the river bottom as a result of moderate water depths, slightly elevated turbidity caused by suspended colloidal material, and dominance of silty substrates. Growth of algae occurs as if on a “conveyor belt” of streamflow, a dynamic system that is continually refreshed with inflowing water. Transit through the system can take as long as 2 weeks during the summer low-flow period. Photosynthetic production of DO during algal blooms is important in offsetting oxygen consumption at the sediment-water interface caused by the decomposition of organic matter from primarily terrestrial sources, and the absence of photosynthesis can lead to low DO concentrations that can harm aquatic life. The periods with the lowest DO concentrations in recent years (since 2003) typically occur in August following a decline in algal abundance and activity, when DO concentrations often decrease to less than State standards for extended periods (nearly 80 days). Since 2003, algal populations have tended to be smaller and algal blooms have terminated earlier compared to conditions in the 1990s, leading to more frequent declines in DO to levels that do not meet State standards. This study was developed to document the current abundance and species composition of phytoplankton in the Tualatin River, identify the possible causes of the general decline in algae, and evaluate hypotheses to explain why algal blooms diminish in midsummer. Plankton and water-quality sample data from 2006 to 2008 were combined with parts of a larger discrete-sample and continuous water-quality monitoring dataset and examined to identify patterns in water-quality and algal conditions since 1991, with a particular emphasis on 2003–08. Longitudinal plankton surveys were conducted in 2006–08 at six sites between river miles (RM) 24.5 and 3.4 at 2- to 3-week intervals, or 5–6 per season, and in-situ bioassay experiments were conducted in 2008 to examine the potential effects of wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) effluent and phosphorus additions on phytoplankton biomass and algal photosynthesis. Phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition, streamflow, and water-quality data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques to gain insights into plankton dynamics to determine what factors might be most tied to the abundance and characteristics of the phytoplankton assemblages, and identify possible causes of their declines. The connection between low-DO events and algal declines was clearly evident, as bloom crashes were nearly always followed by periods of low DO. Algal blooms occurred each year during 2006–08, producing maximum chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) values in June or July generally in the range of 50–80 micrograms per liter (µg/L). Bloom crashes and absence of sufficient algal photosynthesis in mid- to late-summer contributed to minimum DO concentrations that were less than the State standard of 6.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) based on the 30-day mean daily concentration, for 62–74 days each year. At times, the absolute minimum State standard (4 mg/L DO) also was not met. To learn more about why low-DO events occurred, specific algal declines during 2003–08 were scrutinized to determine their likely causal factors. From this information, a series of hypotheses were formulated and evaluated in terms of their ability to explain recent declines in algal populations in the river in late summer. Meteorological, streamflow, turbidity, water temperature, and conductance conditions in the Tualatin River during the 2006–08 summer seasons were not atypical. Natural flow comprised the majority (70–80 percent) of flow each year during spring, but then reduced to 38–40 percent during midsummer when WWTF effluent—which contributed as much as 36 percent—and flow augmentation releases comprised a greater fraction of the flow. Summer 2008 was unusual, however, in the prolonged influence from the Wapato Lake agricultural area near Gaston in the upper part of the basin. The previous winter flooding and levee breach at Wapato Lake caused a much greater area of inundation. As a result, drainage from this area continued into July, much later than normal. A subsequent algal bloom in Wapato Lake then seeded the upper Tualatin River, and this drainage had a profound effect on the downstream plankton community. A large blue-green algae bloom developed—the largest in recent memory—prompting a public health advisory for recreational contact for about two weeks. Algal growths and surface blooms are a common feature of the Tualatin River. Most of the dominant algae have growth forms and morphologies that are well suited for planktonic life, employing spines and gas vacuoles to resist settling, forming colonies, and producing mucilage (or toxins) to resist zooplankton grazing. In 2006–08, 143 algal taxa were identified in 117 main-stem samples; diatoms and green algae were more diverse than blue-green, golden, and cryptophyte algae, although these later groups sometimes dominated the overall volumetric abundance (biovolume). The most frequently occurring taxa, occurring in 97–99 percent of samples, were flagellated cryptophytes Cryptomonas erosa and Rhodomonas minuta. Other important algal taxa included centric diatoms Stephanodiscus, Cyclotella, and Melosira species and colonial green algae Scenedesmus and Actinastrum. These taxa comprised the majority of the algal biovolume during much of the growing season. A general seasonal trend in the phytoplankton assemblages was observed, with dominance by filamentous centric diatoms Stephanodiscus and Melosira in spring and early summer, and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae, particularly Chlamydomonas sp., in late-summer; or, in 2008, dominance by blue-green algae Anabaena flos-aquae and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae during the Wapato Lake bloom event. There were 99 zooplankton taxa identified from the Tualatin River in 2006–08, composed primarily of cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers. A seasonal increase in zooplankton abundance was observed in early summer just as or shortly after the phytoplankton population began to increase, with populations growing to 15,000−120,000 organisms per cubic meter in the lower river. Zooplankton abundance showed a predictable and distinct longitudinal downstream increase, particularly downstream of Highway 99W (RM 11.6). Although grazing rates were not measured, the data suggest that, at times, zooplankton grazing may affect algal abundance and species composition in the Tualatin River, with diatoms becoming relatively less abundant and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae relatively more abundant during periods when zooplankton densities were highest. Multivariate statistical analyses identified soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), natural flow, flow augmentation, and WWTF effluent as important factors influencing Tualatin River phytoplankton populations, with zooplankton density (particularly rotifers and copepods), specific conductance, chloride, and water temperature also having an important influence. Although SRP was highly correlated with the plankton communities, that correlation was likely the result of high or low algal activity (uptake) as SRP concentrations were often reduced to low levels during blooms. While previous studies have already established that phosphorus, among other factors such as flow, places a theoretical cap on the size of the phytoplankton population in the river, sometimes algal declines occur when SRP concentrations are apparently sufficient. To identify alternative causal factors, additional analyses were performed without SRP to focus on other water-quality parameters, zooplankton density, and flow factors. Considering data for all 3 years and including just those samples from the lower Tualatin River not affected by the 2008 Wapato Lake drainage event, three factors (percentage of reservoir flow augmentation, total natural flow, and rotifer density) best explained variations in the phytoplankton assemblages. Analyses focusing on the possible causes of algal declines included the above multivariate analyses, scrutiny of 10 specific instances of declines in algal populations during 2003–08 including several bloom–crash sequences, and analyses of historic routine watershed monitoring data from Clean Water Services. Six factors were hypothesized to be important in causing bloom crashes or impeding blooms from rebounding in August: (1) light limitation from cloudy weather, (2) a reduction in the plankton inocula or “seed” entering the lower river from upstream sources, (3) increased summer streamflows, (4) changes in the dominant sources of flow as the percentage of flow augmentation and WWTF discharges have increased, (5) zooplankton grazing, and (6) low concentrations of bioavailable phosphorus (<0.015 milligram per liter). All of these hypotheses are supported in some fashion by the available data and statistical analyses. Zooplankton grazing, short-term declines in photosynthesis from cloudy weather, total flow as it affects residence time, and the dominant source of flow are primary factors responsible for the low-DO events caused by declines in algae in the lower Tualatin River during late summer. Cloudy weather and increased turbidity are known to inhibit algal growth in the Tualatin River, and slight increases in turbidity in recent years may be a problem. Upstream sources of algae are critical in determining the characteristics and size of downstream populations, as illustrated by the Wapato Lake bloom in 2008, but more data are needed from upstream to fully define the importance of this connection. The sources of flow, through their differential contribution of plankton inocula (quality and amount), were, at times, important factors affecting phytoplankton populations. While SRP concentrations were often most highly correlated with phytoplankton species community, the bioavailability of phosphorus is still somewhat unknown and there are several sources to consider. Preliminary bioassay tests suggested that while treated wastewater effluent may stimulate algae at 30 percent concentrations, negative effects (or decreased stimulation) on Chl-a and DO production may occur at concentrations of 50 percent. Targeted data collection and future research will be needed to further understand the importance of these factors on Tualatin River phytoplankton. While the data and analysis completed for this report provide insights into future research and monitoring that would be useful to continue, additional monitoring of turbidity, Chl-a, and plankton abundance and species composition in the upper part of the basin would enhance our understanding of plankton dynamics and factors affecting phytoplankton abundance in the lower river. Assessment of the key upstream sources of algal inocula via surveys of the major flow sources as well as tributaries and wetlands would provide useful information for the management of river water quality. Other studies that could prove useful for developing management strategies include targeted experiments to evaluate the bioavailability of phosphorus from a variety of sources. New research on phytoplankton–zooplankton interactions, and studies of planktivorous fish, might also provide insight about food web dynamics and potential “top-down” effects of fish predation on the plankton communities. In addition, further development of neural-network or other water-quality models would help to evaluate management strategies and provide forecasts of water-quality conditions. Finally, periodic future reassessments of the available data with the multivariate statistical tools used in this study would be helpful to assess whether and how plankton communities are changing, and to continue to shed light on the importance of factors shaping the plankton. Although certain types and sizes of algal blooms are undesirable, minimum phytoplankton populations are an important part of aquatic food webs and are needed to maintain healthy levels of DO in the river. By understanding the sources, characteristics, causal factors, and responses of the plankton communities, management strategies can be developed to improve DO conditions in the lower Tualatin River during the important summer low-flow period.

Oregon↗

Hydrogeology, groundwater seepage, nitrate distribution, and flux at the Raleigh hydrologic research station, Wake County, North Carolina, 2005-2007

rom 2005 to 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey and the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Water Quality, conducted a study to describe the geologic framework, measure groundwater quality, characterize the groundwater-flow system, and describe the groundwater/surface-water interaction at the 60-acre Raleigh hydrogeologic research station (RHRS) located at the Neuse River Waste Water Treatment Plant in eastern Wake County, North Carolina. Previous studies have shown that the local groundwater quality of the surficial and bedrock aquifers at the RHRS had been affected by high levels of nutrients. Geologic, hydrologic, and water-quality data were collected from 3 coreholes, 12 wells, and 4 piezometers at 3 well clusters, as well as from 2 surface-water sites, 2 multiport piezometers, and 80 discrete locations in the streambed of the Neuse River. Data collected were used to evaluate the three primary zones of the Piedmont aquifer (regolith, transition zone, and fractured bedrock) and characterize the interaction of groundwater and surface water as a mechanism of nutrient transport to the Neuse River. A conceptual hydrogeologic cross section across the RHRS was constructed using new and existing data. Two previously unmapped north striking, nearly vertical diabase dikes intrude the granite beneath the site. Groundwater within the diabase dike appeared to be hydraulically isolated from the surrounding granite bedrock and regolith. A correlation exists between foliation and fracture orientation, with most fractures striking parallel to foliation. Flowmeter logging in two of the bedrock wells indicated that not all of the water-bearing fractures labeled as water bearing were hydraulically active, even when stressed by pumping. Groundwater levels measured in wells at the RHRS displayed climatic and seasonal trends, with elevated groundwater levels occurring during the late spring and declining to a low in the late fall. Vertical gradients in the groundwater discharge area near the Neuse River were complex and were affected by fluctuations in river stage, with the exception of a well completed in a diabase dike. Water-quality data from the wells and surface-water sites at the RHRS were collected continuously as well as during periodic sampling events. Surface-water samples collected from a tributary were most similar in chemical composition to groundwater found in the regolith and transition zone. Nitrate (measured as nitrite plus nitrate, as nitrogen) concentrations in the sampled wells and tributary ranged from about 5 to more than 120 milligrams per liter as nitrogen. Waterborne continuous resistivity profiling conducted on the Neuse River in the area of the RHRS measured areas of low apparent resistivity that likely represent groundwater contaminated by high concentrations of nitrate. These areas were located on either side of a diabase dike and at the outfall of two unnamed tributaries. The diabase dike preferentially directed the discharge of groundwater to the Neuse River and may isolate groundwater movement laterally. Discrete temperature measurements made within the pore water beneath the Neuse River revealed seeps of colder groundwater discharging into warmer surface water near a diabase dike. Water-quality samples collected from the pore water beneath the Neuse River indicated that nitrate was present at concentrations as high as 80 milligrams per liter as nitrogen on the RHRS side of the river. The highest concentrations of nitrate were located within pore water collected from an area near a diabase dike that was identified as a suspected seepage area. Hydraulic head was measured and pore water samples were collected from two 140-centimeter-deep (55.1-inch-deep) multiport piezometers that were installed in bed sediments on opposite sides of a diabase dike. The concentration of nitrate in pore water at a suspected seepage area ranged from 42 to 82 milligrams per liter as nitrogen with a median concentration of 79 milligrams per liter as nitrogen. On the opposite side of the dike, concentrations of nitrate in pore water samples ranged from 3 to 91 milligrams per liter as nitrogen with a median concentration of 52 milligrams per liter. At one of the multiport piezometers the vertical gradient of hydraulic head between the Neuse River and the groundwater was too small to measure. At the multiport piezometer located in the suspected seepage area, an upward gradient of about 0.1 was present and explains the occurrence of higher concentrations of nitrate near the sediment/water interface. Horizontal seepage flux from the surficial aquifer to the edge of the Neuse River was estimated for 2006. Along a 130-foot flow path, the estimated seepage flux ranged from –0.52 to 0.2 foot per day with a median of 0.09 foot per day. The estimated advective horizontal mass flux of nitrate along a 300-foot reach of the Neuse River ranged from –10.9 to 5 pounds per day with a median of 2.2 pounds per day. The total horizontal mass flux of nitrate from the surficial aquifer to the Neuse River along the 130-foot flow path was estimated to be about 750 pounds for all of 2006. Seepage meters were deployed on the bed of the Neuse River in the areas of the multiport piezometers on either side of the diabase dike to estimate rates of vertical groundwater discharge and flux of nitrate. The average estimated daily seepage flux differed by two orders of magnitude between seepage areas. The potential vertical flux of nitrate from groundwater to the Neuse River was estimated at an average of 2.5 grams per day near one of the multiport piezometers and an average of 784 grams per day at the other. These approximations suggest that under some hydrologic conditions there is the potential for substantial quantities of nitrate to discharge from the groundwater to the Neuse River.

North Carolina↗

An evaluation of seepage gains and losses in Indian Creek Reservoir, Ada County, Idaho, April 2010–November 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, conducted an investigation on Indian Creek Reservoir, a small impoundment in east Ada County, Idaho, to quantify groundwater seepage into and out of the reservoir. Data from the study will assist the Idaho Water Resources Department’s Comprehensive Aquifer Management Planning effort to estimate available water resources in Ada County. Three independent methods were utilized to estimate groundwater seepage: (1) the water-budget method; (2) the seepage-meter method; and (3) the segmented Darcy method. Reservoir seepage was quantified during the periods of April through August 2010 and February through November 2011. With the water-budget method, all measureable sources of inflow to and outflow from the reservoir were quantified, with the exception of groundwater; the water-budget equation was solved for groundwater inflow to or outflow from the reservoir. The seepage-meter method relies on the placement of seepage meters into the bottom sediments of the reservoir for the direct measurement of water flux across the sediment-water interface. The segmented-Darcy method utilizes a combination of water-level measurements in the reservoir and in adjacent near-shore wells to calculate water-table gradients between the wells and the reservoir within defined segments of the reservoir shoreline. The Darcy equation was used to calculate groundwater inflow to and outflow from the reservoir. Water-budget results provided continuous, daily estimates of seepage over the full period of data collection, while the seepage-meter and segmented Darcy methods provided instantaneous estimates of seepage. As a result of these and other difference in methodologies, comparisons of seepage estimates provided by the three methods are considered semi-quantitative. The results of the water-budget derived estimates of seepage indicate seepage to be seasonally variable in terms of the direction and magnitude of flow. The reservoir tended to gain water from seepage of groundwater in the early spring months (March–May), while seepage losses to groundwater from the reservoir occurred in the drier months (June–October). Net monthly seepage rates, as computed by the water-budget method, varied greatly. Reservoir gains from seepage ranged from 0.2 to 59.4 acre-feet per month, while reservoir losses to seepage ranged from 1.6 and 26.8 acre-feet per month. An analysis of seepage meter estimates and segmented-Darcy estimates qualitatively supports the seasonal patterns in seepage provided by the water-budget calculations, except that they tended to be much smaller in magnitude. This suggests that actual seepage might be smaller than those estimates made by the water-budget method. Although the results of all three methods indicate that there is some water loss from the reservoir to groundwater, the seepage losses may be due to rewetting of unsaturated near-shore soils, possible replenishment of a perched aquifer, or both, rather than through percolation to the local aquifer that lies 130 feet below the reservoir. A lithologic log from an adjacent well indicates the existence of a clay lithology that is well correlated to the original reservoir’s base elevation. If the clay lithologic unit extends beneath the reservoir basin underlying the fine-grain reservoir bed sediments, the clay layer should act as an effective barrier to reservoir seepage to the local aquifer, which would explain the low seepage loss estimates calculated in this study.

Idaho↗

Settlement of the USS Arizona, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii

The U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service Submerged Resources Center, undertook investigations at the USS Arizona Memorial at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, in 2002, 2003, and 2005 to characterize geological factors affecting the deterioration and movement of the hull of the USS Arizona. Since sinking on the morning of December 7, 1941, the hull of the USS Arizona has been slowly but steadily disappearing below the surface of Pearl Harbor. Continuous sediment coring at three of four locations around the hull of the Arizona was only partially successful, but it was sufficient to identify a varied sedimentary substrate beneath the hull. A boring near the stern reveals a thick, continuous sequence of soft, gray clay to the bottom of the boring. In contrast, borings near the bow and starboard side, below about 5 meters subbottom depth, indicate the presence of very stiff, brown clay and coral debris and an absence of soft clay. Multisensor core logger scanning of the recovered cores distinguishes the lower density of the soft, gray clay at the stern from the higher density of the stiff, brown clays and coral debris at the bow and starboard side. Uniaxial consolidation testing of the soft gray clay indicates a normally consolidated sequence, whereas the stiff, brown clay and coral debris are overconsolidated. Profiles of shear wave velocity vs. depth obtained through spectral analysis of interface wave testing around the perimeter of the hull in 2005 identified areas of higher velocity, stiffer sediment at the bow and starboard side, which correspond to the dense, stiff clay recovered near the bow and starboard borings. Low shear-wave velocities at the port midship and quarter of the hull correlate with the lower density, softer sediment recovered from the boring at the stern. Cross sections of the subbottom of the Memorial combine results from the sediment borings and geophysical surveys and depict a wedge of soft clay unconformably overlying the stiff clays and coral debris beneath the aft half of the USS Arizona and thickening toward the stern. The 2008 position of the hull has been documented using both tide-based and differential Global Positioning System (GPS) measuring systems. Analysis of historical and recent photographs was done to create a record of settlement from the time of sinking in 1941 to the present. By examining shadows in suitable photos, the sun azimuth, local time of day, and tide levels were determined to derive tide-adjusted and sea-level-rise-corrected elevations for structures on the hull and from these elevations to obtain settlement and tilt trends. The settlement trends, most complete for barbette 3, have two components. An early, nonlinear component ends on December 9, 1941, and represents the initial penetration and displacement of the bottom sediment by the hull. A linear, long-term trend of normal consolidation continues to the present day. Long-term settlement rates are greatest at the stern and decrease linearly to the midship, showing that the aft half of the hull is moving as an intact, rigid body. The recent rate of settlement at the stern is about 3.5 mm/year; rates at the starboard midship and forward part of the hull are less than one-third of the stern rate. The aft half of the USS Arizona hull presently tilts about 2 degrees to port, an increase of at least 1.5 degrees since the initial sinking of the ship. The results of this study identify differential settlement of the Arizona hull, due to the wedge of soft clay underlying the aft half of the hull, as the cause of the movement of the hull beneath the surface of Pearl Harbor. Calculation of sediment consolidation using lab-determined properties of the soft clay demonstrates that the observed settlements can be reproduced by projecting appropriate clay thicknesses beneath the hull. Several of the high-quality photographs analyzed for the historical settlement analysis highlight some of the limitations of this retrospective technique for determining tide-based elevations. In these cases, calculated structure elevations do not conform to the settlement trend, indicating that there can be complicating factors affecting the interpretation of the photos. Conflicting dates for events during the salvage operations were also encountered.

Hawai'i↗