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At least 1,477 records · Page 82Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Effects of telemetry collars on two free-roaming feral equid species

There are two species of free-roaming feral equids in North America: horses ( Equus caballus ) and donkeys or “burros” ( E . asinus ). Both species were introduced as domestic animals to North America in the early 1500s and currently inhabit rangelands across the western United States, Canada, and all continents except Antarctica. Despite their global distribution, little is known about their fine scale spatial ecology. Contemporary research tools to assess space use include global positioning system (GPS) tracking collars, but older models were problematic due to stiff collar belting causing poor fit. We tested modern designs of GPS collars on n = 105 horses and n = 60 burros for 4 years in five populations (3 horse, 2 burro) across the western United States, to assess whether collars posed welfare risks to horses or burros. We found no difference in survival of collared versus uncollared mares and jennies, and no difference in survival of their foals. In 4036 of 4307 observations for horses (93.7%) and 2115 of 2258 observations for burros (93.6%), collars were observed symmetrical, maintaining proper fit on the neck. Fur effects from collars (sweaty neck, indented fur, broken fur) were seen in 3% of horse observations and 25% of burro observations. Superficial effects (chafes and marks on skin surface) were seen in 2% of horse observations and 11% of burro observations; no severe effects from collars were seen. Body condition was not affected by collars; mean body condition of collared horses was 4.70 ± 0.54 (mean ± s.d) and 4.71 ± 0.65 for collared burros. Behavior results indicated minimal effects; collared horses stood slightly more than uncollared, and collared burros stood and foraged more in one population, but not in the other. For 6.3% of observations of horses and 6.4% of observations of burros, we found an effect of time wearing a collar on the cumulative sum of fur effects which increased over time (burros: r s = 0.87, P = <0.0001; horses: r s = 0.31, P = 0.002). Burros also showed an increase over time in the number of superficial effects, but horses did not. Collars occasionally moved into the wrong position, shifting forward over the ears; we observed this on 19 horses and 1 burro. Of those, most collars went over the ears in summer ( n = 12). All collars were equipped with a remote release mechanism as well as a timed-release mechanism for redundancy, thus removed when observed in wrong position to avoid rubbing or discomfort. Our finding of no consequential physical effects in 98% of horse observations, and 89% of burro observations suggests the consequences of collars on free-roaming equid welfare and survival is biologically insignificant, although collars should be monitored regularly and continue to be equipped with a remote release mechanism to remove a collar if needed. With frequent welfare-driven, visual monitoring, collaring of free-roaming equids can be a safe and useful tool to increase our understanding of their spatial ecology, demography, habitat use, behavior, and interactions with other wildlife.

Arizona, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2015

An updated conceptual model of Delta Smelt biology: Our evolving understanding of an estuarine fish

The main purpose of this report is to provide an up-to-date assessment and conceptual model of factors affecting Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) throughout its primarily annual life cycle and to demonstrate how this conceptual model can be used for scientific and management purposes. The Delta Smelt is a small estuarine fish that only occurs in the San Francisco Estuary. Once abundant, it is now rare and has been protected under the federal and California Endangered Species Acts since 1993. The Delta Smelt listing was related to a step decline in the early 1980s; however, population abundance decreased even further with the onset of the “pelagic organism decline” (POD) around 2002. A substantial, albeit short-lived, increase in abundance of all life stages in 2011 showed that the Delta Smelt population can still rebound when conditions are favorable for spawning, growth, and survival. In this report, we update previous conceptual models for Delta Smelt to reflect new data and information since the release of the last synthesis report about the POD by the Interagency Ecological Program for the San Francisco Estuary (IEP) in 2010. Specific objectives include: 1. Provide decision makers with a practical tool for evaluating difficult trade-offs associated with management and policy decisions. 2. Provide scientists with a framework from which they can formulate and evaluate hypotheses using qualitative or quantitative models. 3. Provide the general public with a new way of learning about Delta Smelt and their habitat. Our updated conceptual model describes the habitat conditions and ecosystem drivers affecting each Delta Smelt life stage, across seasons and how the seasonal effects contribute to the annual success of the species. The conceptual model consists of two nested and linked levels of increasing specificity. The general life cycle conceptual model for four Delta Smelt life stages (adults, eggs and larvae, juveniles, and subadults) includes stationary ecosystem components and dynamic environmental drivers, habitat attributes, and Delta Smelt responses. The more detailed life stage transition conceptual models for each of the four Delta Smelt life stages describe relationships between environmental drivers, key habitat attributes, and the responses of Delta Smelt to habitat attributes as they transition from one life stage to the next. Our analyses and conceptual model show that good larval recruitment is essential for setting the stage for a strong year class; however, increased growth and survival through subsequent life stages are also needed to achieve and sustain higher population abundance. We used our conceptual model to generate 16 hypotheses about the factors that may have contributed to the 2011 increase in Delta Smelt relative abundance. We then evaluated these hypotheses by comparing habitat conditions and Delta Smelt responses in the wet year 2011 to those in the prior wet year 2006 and in the drier years 2005 and 2010. Larval recruitment was similarly high in both wet years and lower in the drier antecedent years, but juvenile and adult abundance increased only in 2011. In 2005 and 2006, the population was limited by very poor survival from the larval to the juvenile life stage. We found that in 2011, Delta Smelt may have benefitted from a combination of favorable habitat conditions throughout the year, including: 1. Adults and larvae benefitted from prolonged cool spring water temperatures, high 2011 winter and spring outflows which reduced entrainment risk and possibly improved other habitat conditions, and possibly enhanced food availability in late spring. 2. Juveniles benefitted from cool water temperatures in late spring and early summer as well as from improved food availability and low levels of harmful Microcystis. 3. Subadults also benefitted from improved food availability and from favorable habitat conditions in the large, low salinity zone (salinity 1-6) located more toward Suisun Bay,

California↗
USGS2010

Modeling seasonal dynamics of small fish cohorts in fluctuating freshwater marsh landscapes

Small-bodied fishes constitute an important assemblage in many wetlands. In wetlands that dry periodically except for small permanent waterbodies, these fishes are quick to respond to change and can undergo large fluctuations in numbers and biomasses. An important aspect of landscapes that are mixtures of marsh and permanent waterbodies is that high rates of biomass production occur in the marshes during flooding phases, while the permanent waterbodies serve as refuges for many biotic components during the dry phases. The temporal and spatial dynamics of the small fishes are ecologically important, as these fishes provide a crucial food base for higher trophic levels, such as wading birds. We develop a simple model that is analytically tractable, describing the main processes of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a population of small-bodied fish in a seasonal wetland environment, consisting of marsh and permanent waterbodies. The population expands into newly flooded areas during the wet season and contracts during declining water levels in the dry season. If the marsh dries completely during these times (a drydown), the fish need refuge in permanent waterbodies. At least three new and general conclusions arise from the model: (1) there is an optimal rate at which fish should expand into a newly flooding area to maximize population production; (2) there is also a fluctuation amplitude of water level that maximizes fish production, and (3) there is an upper limit on the number of fish that can reach a permanent waterbody during a drydown, no matter how large the marsh surface area is that drains into the waterbody. Because water levels can be manipulated in many wetlands, it is useful to have an understanding of the role of these fluctuations.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2017

The future of fish passage science, engineering, and practice

Much effort has been devoted to developing, constructing and refining fish passage facilities to enable target species to pass barriers on fluvial systems, and yet, fishway science, engineering and practice remain imperfect. In this review, 17 experts from different fish passage research fields (i.e., biology, ecology, physiology, ecohydraulics, engineering) and from different continents (i.e., North and South America, Europe, Africa, Australia) identified knowledge gaps and provided a roadmap for research priorities and technical developments. Once dominated by an engineering‐focused approach, fishway science today involves a wide range of disciplines from fish behaviour to socioeconomics to complex modelling of passage prioritization options in river networks. River barrier impacts on fish migration and dispersal are currently better understood than historically, but basic ecological knowledge underpinning the need for effective fish passage in many regions of the world, including in biodiversity hotspots (e.g., equatorial Africa, South‐East Asia), remains largely unknown. Designing efficient fishways, with minimal passage delay and post‐passage impacts, requires adaptive management and continued innovation. While the use of fishways in river restoration demands a transition towards fish passage at the community scale, advances in selective fishways are also needed to manage invasive fish colonization. Because of the erroneous view in some literature and communities of practice that fish passage is largely a proven technology, improved international collaboration, information sharing, method standardization and multidisciplinary training are needed. Further development of regional expertise is needed in South America, Asia and Africa where hydropower dams are currently being planned and constructed.

Fish and Fisheries↗
USGS2026

Leveraging local species data, a global database, and an occupancy model to explore bee–plant interactions

Global declines in bee populations are threatening the ecosystem services they provide, including pollination. Many bee–plant interactions are understudied, producing an incomplete understanding of resulting ecosystem-level vulnerabilities. The last decade has generated a wealth of opportunistic data originating from natural history collection records, published ecological datasets, and citizen/community science initiatives in online databases such as Global Biotic Interactions (GloBI). Here, we explore hypotheses related to bee–plant interactions and detection processes using the GloBI database, curated checklists of bee and flowering plant species, and an occupancy model. We hypothesized that larger, social bees would visit a larger number of plant species, while smaller, solitary bees would visit fewer. We also predicted that flowers with open, bowl-like shapes would attract a greater diversity of bee visitors compared to closed shapes. Further, we hypothesized that both floral and bee traits, such as bright colors and conspicuous patterns, would increase detectability, and that different data collection methods would vary in their ability to capture bee–plant interactions. Lastly, we hypothesized that the interaction network generated by the output of the occupancy model, which accounted for imperfect bee–plant detection, would yield more interactions, thereby increasing measures of evenness and decreasing nestedness and specialization, as compared to the network generated from recorded interaction data. We found that smaller bees exhibited higher probabilities of plant interactions than larger bees, but we did not find evidence that bee sociality influenced the probability of interacting with plants. We found that blue flowers and closed (not-bowl-shaped) flowers had higher probabilities of bee-plant interaction than other flower colors or bowl-shaped flowers, respectively. We also found that larger bee size, blue flowers, bowl shapes, and community science sources were associated with higher detection probabilities of bee–plant interactions. Lastly, the interaction network generated by the occupancy model output showed higher levels of evenness, nestedness, and connectance than the network generated by the GloBI data. Our study is among the first to utilize occupancy modeling to directly model species' interactions, leverage aggregated, open-source databases and expert checklists, and highlight the influence of detection and collection biases on our understanding of ecological interactions.

California↗
USGS2013

The simulated effects of wastewater-management actions on the hydrologic system and nitrogen-loading rates to wells and ecological receptors, Popponesset Bay Watershed, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

The discharge of excess nitrogen into Popponesset Bay, an estuarine system on western Cape Cod, has resulted in eutrophication and the loss of eel grass habitat within the estuaries. Septic-system return flow in residential areas within the watershed is the primary source of nitrogen. Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nitrogen have been assigned to the six estuaries that compose the system, and local communities are in the process of implementing the TMDLs by the partial sewering, treatment, and disposal of treated wastewater at wastewater-treatment facilities (WTFs). Loads of waste-derived nitrogen from both current (1997–2001) and future sources can be estimated implicitly from parcel-scale water-use data and recharge areas delineated by a groundwater-flow model. These loads are referred to as “instantaneous” loads because it is assumed that the nitrogen from surface sources is delivered to receptors instantaneously and that there is no traveltime through the aquifer. The use of a solute-transport model to explicitly simulate the transport of mass through the aquifer from sources to receptors can improve implementation of TMDLs by (1) accounting for traveltime through the aquifer, (2) avoiding limitations associated with the estimation of loads from static recharge areas, (3) accounting more accurately for the effect of surface waters on nitrogen loads, and (4) determining the response of waste-derived nitrogen loads to potential wastewater-management actions. The load of nitrogen to Popponesset Bay on western Cape Cod, which was estimated by using current sources as input to a solute-transport model based on a steady-state flow model, is about 50 percent of the instantaneous load after about 7 years of transport (loads to estuary are equal to loads discharged from sources); this estimate is consistent with simulated advective traveltimes in the aquifer, which have a median of 5 years. Model-calculated loads originating from recharge areas reach 80 percent of the instantaneous load within 30 years; this result indicates that loads estimated from recharge areas likely are reasonable for estimating current instantaneous loads. However, recharge areas are assumed to remain static as stresses and hydrologic conditions change in response to wastewater-management actions. Sewering of the Popponesset Bay watershed would not change hydraulic gradients and recharge areas to receptors substantially; however, disposal of wastewater from treatment facilities can change hydraulic gradients and recharge areas to nearby receptors, particularly if the facilities are near the boundary of the recharge area. In these cases, nitrogen loads implicitly estimated by using current recharge areas that do not accurately represent future hydraulic stresses can differ significantly from loads estimated with recharge areas that do represent those stresses. Nitrogen loads to two estuaries in the Popponesset Bay system estimated by using recharge areas delineated for future hydrologic conditions and nitrogen sources were about 3 and 9 times higher than loads estimated by using current recharge areas; for this reason, reliance on static recharge areas can present limitations for effective TMDL implementation by means of a hypothetical, but realistic, wastewater-management action. A solute-transport model explicitly represents nitrogen transport from surface sources and does not rely on the use of recharge areas; because changes in gradients resulting from wastewater-management actions are accounted for in transport simulations, they provide more reliable predictions of future nitrogen loads. Explicitly representing the mass transport of nitrogen can better account for the mechanisms by which nitrogen enters the estuary and improve estimates of the attenuation of nitrogen concentrations in fresh surface waters. Water and associated nitrogen can enter an estuary as either direct groundwater discharge or as surface-water inflow. Two estuaries in the Popponesset Bay watershed receive surface-water inflows: Shoestring Bay receives water from the Santuit River, and the tidal reach of the Mashpee River receives water (and associated nitrogen) from the nontidal reach of the Mashpee River. Much of the water discharging into these streams passes through ponds prior to discharge. The additional attenuation of nitrogen in groundwater that has passed through a pond and discharged into a stream prior to entering an estuary is about 3 kilograms per day. Advective-transport times in the aquifer generally are small—median traveltimes are about 4.5 years—and nitrogen loads at receptors respond quickly to wastewater-management actions. The simulated decreases in nitrogen loads were 50 and 80 percent of the total decreases within 5 and 15 years, respectively, after full sewering of the watershed and within 3 and 10 years, for sequential phases of partial sewering and disposal at WTFs. The results show that solute-transport models can be used to assess the responses of nitrogen loads to wastewater-management actions, and that loads at ecological receptors (receiving waters—ponds, streams or coastal waters—that support ecosystems) will respond within a few years to those actions. The responses vary for individual receptors as functions of hydrologic setting, traveltimes in the aquifer, and the unique set of nitrogen sources representing current and future wastewater-disposal actions within recharge areas. Changes in nitrogen loads from groundwater discharge to individual estuaries range from a decrease of 90 percent to an increase of 80 percent following sequential phases of hypothetical but realistic wastewater-management actions. The ability to explicitly represent the transport of mass through the aquifer allows for the evaluation of complex responses that include the effects of surface waters, traveltimes, and complex changes in sources. Most of the simulated decreases in nitrogen loads to Shoestring Bay and the tidal portion of the Mashpee River, 79 and 69 percent, respectively, were caused by decreases in the nitrogen loads from surface-water inflow.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2023

A community convention for ecological forecasting: Output files and metadata version 1.0

This paper summarizes the open community conventions developed by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) for the common formatting and archiving of ecological forecasts and the metadata associated with these forecasts. Such open standards are intended to promote interoperability and facilitate forecast communication, distribution, validation, and synthesis. For output files, we first describe the convention conceptually in terms of global attributes, forecast dimensions, forecasted variables, and ancillary indicator variables. We then illustrate the application of this convention to the two file formats that are currently preferred by the EFI, netCDF (network common data form), and comma-separated values (CSV), but note that the convention is extensible to future formats. For metadata, EFI's convention identifies a subset of conventional metadata variables that are required (e.g., temporal resolution and output variables) but focuses on developing a framework for storing information about forecast uncertainty propagation, data assimilation, and model complexity, which aims to facilitate cross-forecast synthesis. The initial application of this convention expands upon the Ecological Metadata Language (EML), a commonly used metadata standard in ecology. To facilitate community adoption, we also provide a Github repository containing a metadata validator tool and several vignettes in R and Python on how to both write and read in the EFI standard. Lastly, we provide guidance on forecast archiving, making an important distinction between short-term dissemination and long-term forecast archiving, while also touching on the archiving of code and workflows. Overall, the EFI convention is a living document that can continue to evolve over time through an open community process.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2024

Vegetation, fuels, and fire-behavior responses to linear fuel-break treatments in and around burned sagebrush steppe: Are we breaking the grass-fire cycle?

Background Linear fuel breaks are being implemented to moderate fire behavior and improve wildfire containment in semiarid landscapes such as the sagebrush steppe of North America, where extensive losses in perennial vegetation and ecosystem functioning are resulting from invasion by exotic annual grasses (EAGs) that foster large and recurrent wildfires. However, fuel-break construction can also pose EAG invasion risks, which must be weighed against the intended fire-moderation benefits of the treatments. We investigated how shrub reductions (mowing, cutting), pre-emergent EAG-herbicides, and/or drill seedings of fire-resistant perennial bunchgrasses (PBGs) recently applied to create a large fuel-break system affected native and exotic plant abundances and their associated fuel loading and predicted fire behavior. Results In heavily EAG-invaded areas, herbicides reduced EAG and total herbaceous cover without affecting PBGs for 2–3 years and reduced predicted fire behavior for 1 year (from the Fuel Characteristic Classification System). However, surviving post-herbicide EAG cover was still > 30%, which was sufficient fuel to exceed the conventional 1.2-m-flame length (FL) threshold for attempting wildfire suppression with hand tools. In less invaded shrubland, shrub reduction treatments largely reduced shrub cover and height by ~ half without increasing EAGs, but then redistributed the wood to ground level and increased total herbaceous cover. Herbicides and/or drill seeding after shrub reductions did not affect EAG cover, although drill seedings increased PBG cover and exotic forbs (e.g., Russian thistle). Fire behavior was predicted to be moderated in only one of the many yearly observations of the various shrub-reduction treatment combinations. Over all treatments and years, FLs were predicted to exceed 1.2 m in 13% of simulations under average (11 km h −1 ) or high (47 km h −1 ) wind speed conditions and exceed the 3.4-m threshold for uncontrollable fire in 11% of simulations under high-wind speeds only. Conclusions Predicted fire-moderation benefits over the first 4 years of fuel break implementation were modest and variable, but, generally, increases in EAGs and their associated fire risks were not observed. Nonetheless, ancillary evidence from shrublands would suggest that treatment-induced shifts from shrub to herbaceous fuel dominance are expected to improve conditions for active fire suppression in ways not readily represented in available fire models.

Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2004

Estimation of sex-specific survival from capture-recapture data when sex is not always known

Many animals lack obvious sexual dimorphism, making assignment of sex difficult even for observed or captured animals. For many such species it is possible to assign sex with certainty only at some occasions; for example, when they exhibit certain types of behavior. A common approach to handling this situation in capture-recapture studies has been to group capture histories into those of animals eventually identified as male and female and those for which sex was never known. Because group membership is dependent on the number of occasions at which an animal was caught or observed (known sex animals, on average, will have been observed at more occasions than unknown-sex animals), survival estimates for known-sex animals will be positively biased, and those for unknown animals will be negatively biased. In this paper, we develop capture-recapture models that incorporate sex ratio and sex assignment parameters that permit unbiased estimation in the face of this sampling problem. We demonstrate the magnitude of bias in the traditional capture-recapture approach to this sampling problem, and we explore properties of estimators from other ad hoc approaches. The model is then applied to capture-recapture data for adult Roseate Terns ( Sterna dougallii ) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, 1993-2002. Sex ratio among adults in this population favors females, and we tested the hypothesis that this population showed sex-specific differences in adult survival. Evidence was provided for higher survival of adult females than males, as predicted. We recommend use of this modeling approach for future capture-recapture studies in which sex cannot always be assigned to captured or observed animals. We also place this problem in the more general context of uncertainty in state classification in multistate capture-recapture models.

Connecticut↗
USGS2008

Efficient implementation of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, with application to the Cormack?Jolly?Seber model

Judicious choice of candidate generating distributions improves efficiency of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. In Bayesian applications, it is sometimes possible to identify an approximation to the target posterior distribution; this approximate posterior distribution is a good choice for candidate generation. These observations are applied to analysis of the Cormack?Jolly?Seber model and its extensions.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics↗
USGS2016

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state&rsquo;s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska&rsquo;s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii ) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040&ndash;2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Upper Mississippi River System hydrogeomorphic change conceptual model and hierarchical classification

Understanding the geomorphic processes and causes for long-term hydrogeomorphic changes along the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) is necessary for scientific studies ranging from habitat needs assessments, sediment transport, and nutrient processing, and making sound management decisions and prioritizing ecological restoration activities. From 2018 through 2020 the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers led a series of calls and meetings, and a workshop to develop a draft UMRS hydrogeomorphic change conceptual model and hierarchical classification scheme. This project was funded through an Upper Mississippi River Restoration 2018 science in support of restoration proposal entitled, “Conceptual Model and Hierarchical Classification of Hydrogeomorphic Settings in the Upper Mississippi River System.” This report documents the background leading up to and the major findings from the workshop. The resulting conceptual model focuses on the drivers and boundary conditions that affect the major hydrogeomorphic processes along the valley corridor using a continuum of spatial and temporal scales and resolutions. The draft hierarchical classification was based on three existing and three new nested geospatial datasets that ultimately can be used to characterize hydrogeomorphic settings that span the UMRS valley corridor. The conceptual model and hierarchical classification will help characterize recent (mid-1990s through mid-2010s) decadal-scale processes and sources for potential hydrogeomorphic change that span a range of spatial scales from watershed hydrology and sediment sources to channel hydraulics and sediment transport.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Sout↗
USGS2017

Basis function models for animal movement

Advances in satellite-based data collection techniques have served as a catalyst for new statistical methodology to analyze these data. In wildlife ecological studies, satellite-based data and methodology have provided a wealth of information about animal space use and the investigation of individual-based animal–environment relationships. With the technology for data collection improving dramatically over time, we are left with massive archives of historical animal telemetry data of varying quality. While many contemporary statistical approaches for inferring movement behavior are specified in discrete time, we develop a flexible continuous-time stochastic integral equation framework that is amenable to reduced-rank second-order covariance parameterizations. We demonstrate how the associated first-order basis functions can be constructed to mimic behavioral characteristics in realistic trajectory processes using telemetry data from mule deer and mountain lion individuals in western North America. Our approach is parallelizable and provides inference for heterogenous trajectories using nonstationary spatial modeling techniques that are feasible for large telemetry datasets. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Journal of the American Statistical Association↗
USGS2021

Habitat suitability index model improvement recommendations

As part of the model improvement effort for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan, the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models used during previous master plans were reevaluated to assess how the model relationships could be improved, and to determine what species should be included in the master plan analyses. This process considered the technical reviews, comments, and suggested improvements provided by model developers, advisory groups, and other experts during previous master plans. Reviews were then conducted to determine the availability of data and information that could be used to make model improvements. As a result of this effort, a recommended list of relevant species to model is provided, and HSI model improvements are recommended that are categorized by whether the suitability index (SI) relationship to be improved is statistical-based or literature-based. The species recommended to be included in the 2023 Coastal Master Plan analyses are: eastern oyster, brown shrimp, white shrimp, blue crab, crayfish, gulf menhaden, spotted seatrout, largemouth bass, American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, brown pelican, seaside sparrow, and bald eagle. These species were selected because they represent a range of taxonomies, life histories, trophic levels, and habitats, and most are commercially- or recreationally-important in coastal Louisiana. Most of these species were also included in the 2017 Coastal Master Plan analyses, and the models used during that effort should be further improved. Seaside sparrow and bald eagle are new for the master plan, and new models should be developed for the analyses. The 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models included a water quality SI that was based on statistical analyses of species catch and environmental data collected by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. As suggested during the 2017 Coastal Master Plan, the modeling approach used to develop the water quality SI was revisited and alternate modeling approaches were explored. Using literature and an evaluation of the general steps of model development, three components for HSI model improvement were identified, including 1) selecting alternative modeling approach(es); 2) detecting and resolving statistical issues; and 3) improving model fit and evaluation. Multiple options for each component were explored, which resulted in a proposed multi-step phased approach for model improvement. This proposed approach entails improving the generalized linear models used for the 2017 water quality SIs and then, if desired, comparing them to alternative model approaches (e.g., generalized additive models) to explore model performance and select the best approach to use for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan HSI models. All of the existing master plan HSI models include literature-based SIs, which use information from published studies of species-habitat associations to derive suitability relationships. Similar to previous master plans, these literature-based SIs should be updated and improved for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan using recent literature and new ecological knowledge. Preliminary reviews were conducted and recent information was found that could be used to improve the eastern oyster, crayfish, and potentially brown pelican HSI models; but no appropriate recent literature was located for improvement of the American alligator, gadwall, and mottled duck HSI models. However, it is recommended that the literature reviews and information searches be continued. In addition to the statistical-based water quality SI, the 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models also included a structural habitat SI that was based on literature showing high densities of these species in fragmented marsh. The relationship used for this SI, however, did not account for the effects of other estuarine habitats, such as submerged aquatic vegetation and oyster reefs, which are also important to these species. Therefore, a meta-analysis approach is proposed that would estimate the relative importance of these habitats for each species, and the results of this analysis could be used to calculate a new structural habitat SI for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan.

Report↗
USGS2020

The use of Bayesian priors in Ecology: The good, the bad and the not great

Bayesian data analysis (BDA) is a powerful tool for making inference from ecological data, but its full potential has yet to be realized. Despite a generally positive trajectory in research surrounding model development and assessment, far too little attention has been given to prior specification. Default priors, a sub‐class of non‐informative prior distributions that are often chosen without critical thought or evaluation, are commonly used in practice. We believe the fear of being too ‘subjective’ has prevented many researchers from using any prior information in their analyses despite the fact that defending prior choice (informative or not) promotes good statistical practice. In this commentary, we provide an overview of how BDA is currently being used in a random sample of articles, discuss implications for inference if current bad practices continue, and highlight sub‐fields where knowledge about the system has improved inference and promoted good statistical practices through the careful and justified use of informative priors. We hope to inspire a renewed discussion about the use of Bayesian priors in Ecology with particular attention paid to specification and justification. We also emphasize that all priors are the result of a subjective choice, and should be discussed in that way.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2018

Modeling the compensatory response of an invasive tree to specialist insect herbivory

The severity of the effects of herbivory on plant fitness can be moderated by the ability of plants to compensate for biomass loss. Compensation is an important component of the ecological fitness in many plants, and has been shown to reduce the effects of pests on agricultural plant yields. It can also reduce the effectiveness of biocontrol through introduced herbivores in controlling weedy invasive plants. This study used a modeling approach to predict the effect of different levels of foliage herbivory by biological control agents introduced to control the invasive tree Melaleuca quinquennervia (melaleuca) in Florida. It is assumed in the model that melaleuca can optimally change its carbon and nitrogen allocation strategies in order to compensate for the effects of herbivory. The model includes reallocation of more resources to production and maintenance of photosynthetic tissues at the expense of roots. This compensation is shown to buffer the severity of the defoliation effect, but the model predicts a limit on the maximum herbivory that melaleuca can tolerate and survive. The model also shows that the level of available limiting nutrient (e.g., soil nitrogen) may play an important role in a melaleuca’s ability to compensate for herbivory. This study has management implications for the best ways to maximize the level of damage using biological control or other means of defoliation.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Overview of emerging amphibian pathogens and modeling advances for conservation-related decisions

One of the leading causes of global amphibian decline is emerging infectious disease. We summarize the disease ecology of four major emerging amphibian infectious agents: chytrids, ranaviruses, trematodes, and Perkinsea. We focus on recently developed quantitative advances that build on well-established ecological theories and aid in studying epizootic and enzootic disease dynamics. For example, we identify ecological and evolutionary selective forces that determine disease outcomes and transmission pathways by borrowing ideas from population and community ecology theory. We outline three topics of general interest in disease ecology: (i) the relationship between biodiversity and disease risk, (ii) individual, species, or environmental transmission heterogeneity, and (iii) pathogen coinfections. Finally, we identify specific knowledge gaps impeding the success of conservation-related decisions for disease mitigation and the future of amphibian conservation success.

Biological Conservation↗