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Mapping out a future for ungulate migrations

Migration of ungulates (hooved mammals) is a fundamental ecological process that promotes abundant herds, whose effects cascade up and down terrestrial food webs. Migratory ungulates provide the prey base that maintains large carnivore and scavenger populations and underpins terrestrial biodiversity (fig. S1). When ungulates move in large aggregations, their hooves, feces, and urine create conditions that facilitate distinct biotic communities. The migrations of ungulates have sustained humans for thousands of years, forming tight cultural links among Indigenous people and local communities. Yet ungulate migrations are disappearing at an alarming rate ( 1 ). Efforts by wildlife managers and conservationists are thwarted by a singular challenge: Most ungulate migrations have never been mapped in sufficient detail to guide effective conservation. Without a strategic and collaborative effort, many of the world's great migrations will continue to be truncated, severed, or lost in the coming decades. Fortunately, a combination of animal tracking datasets, historical records, and local and Indigenous knowledge can form the basis for a global atlas of migrations, designed to support conservation action and policy at local, national, and international levels.

Science↗

Lessons learned from 20 y of monitoring suburban development with distributed stormwater management in Clarksburg, Maryland, USA

Urban development is a well-known stressor for stream ecosystems, presenting a challenge to managers tasked with mitigating its effects. For the past 20 y, streamflow, water quality, geomorphology, and benthic communities were monitored in 5 watersheds in Montgomery County, Maryland, USA. This study presents a synthesis of multiple studies of monitoring efforts in the study area and new analysis of more recent monitoring data to document the primary lessons learned from monitoring. The monitored watersheds include a forested control, an urban control with centralized stormwater management, and 3 suburban treatment watersheds featuring low-impact development and a high density of infiltration-focused stormwater facilities distributed across the watershed. Treatment watersheds were monitored before development, during construction, and after development. Monitoring was initiated to inform adaptive management of stormwater and impervious cover limits within the study area, with a focus on the impacts of distributed stormwater management. Results from our synthesis indicate that distributed stormwater management is advantageous compared with centralized stormwater management in numerous ways. Hydrologic benefits were greater with distributed stormwater infrastructure, demonstrating the ability to mitigate runoff volumes and peak flows and, for small storms, replicate predevelopment conditions. Baseflow temporarily increased during the construction phase in the treatment watersheds. Water-quality benefits were mixed, with declines in baseflow nitrate concentrations but limited changes to nitrate export and increases in specific conductance after development. Substantial topographic changes occurred during construction in the treatment watersheds, including changes within the riparian zone, despite riparian buffer protections. Ecological monitoring indicated that even though index of biotic integrity scores rebounded in some cases, sensitive benthic macroinvertebrate families did not fully recover in the treatment watersheds. Lessons learned from this synthesis highlight the importance of tracking multiple indicators of stream health and considering past land use and that more stormwater facilities distributed across the watershed is beneficial but cannot mitigate the effects of all urban stressors on aquatic ecosystems.

Maryland↗

Contrasting Common Era climate and hydrology sensitivities from paired lake sediment dinosterol hydrogen isotope records in the South Pacific Convergence Zone

Hydroclimate on ‘Uvea (Wallis et Futuna) is controlled by rainfall associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the southern hemisphere's largest precipitation feature. To extend the short observational precipitation record, the hydrogen isotopic composition of the algal lipid biomarker dinosterol (δ 2 H dinosterol ) was measured in sediment cores from two volcanic crater lakes on ‘Uvea. The modern lakes differ morphologically and chemically but both contain freshwater within the photic zone, support phytoplankton communities inclusive of dinosterol-producing dinoflagellates, and experience identical climate conditions. δ 2 H dinosterol values track lake water isotope ratios, ultimately controlled in the tropics by precipitation amount and evaporative enrichment. However, in 88-m-deep Lac Lalolalo a steadily decreasing trend in sedimentary δ 2 H dinosterol values from −227‰ around year 988 CE to modern values as low as −303‰, suggests this lake's evolution from an active volcanic setting to the present system strongly influenced δ 2 H dinosterol values. Although current hydrology and water isotope systematics may now reflect precipitation and evaporation in this lake, the interaction between these processes and large changes in basin morphology, geochemistry, and hydrology obstruct the recovery of a climate signal from Lac Lalolalo's sedimentary δ 2 H dinosterol records. This work emphasizes the importance of site replication and the use of complementary climate reconstruction tools, especially when using molecular proxies that may be sensitive to more than one environmental parameter. Contrary to its neighbor, duplicate δ 2 H dinosterol records from 23-m-deep Lac Lanutavake varied between −277‰ and −297‰ and indicate slightly drier conditions during the time-period known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 950–1250 CE). The δ 2 H dinosterol signal in Lac Lanutavake was muted compared to published records from ‘Upolu (Samoa) and Efate (Vanuatu) indicating that ‘Uvea's location is not as sensitive to precipitation variability at sites farther from the SPCZ central axis. Lithogenic runoff proxies combined with δ 2 H dinosterol support the interpretation of a relatively dry MCA on ‘Uvea, ‘Upolu, and Efate, potentially due to less intense precipitation, a contracted, or a more zonally oriented SPCZ.

Efate Island, Lac Lalolalo, Lac Lanoto'o, Lac Lanu↗

Experimental warming changes phenology and shortens growing season of the dominant invasive plant Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass)

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum ’s phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments’ legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

Utah↗

The biogeography of relative abundance of soil fungi versus bacteria in surface topsoil

Fungi and bacteria are the two dominant groups of soil microbial communities worldwide. By controlling the turnover of soil organic matter, these organisms directly regulate the exchange of carbon between the soil and the atmosphere. Fundamental differences in the physiology and life history of bacteria and fungi suggest that variation in the biogeography of soil fungal and bacterial relative abundance could drive striking differences in carbon decomposition and soil organic matter formation across different biomes. However, a lack of global and predictive information on the distribution of these organisms in terrestrial 45 ecosystems has prevented the inclusion of soil fungal and bacterial relative abundance and the associated processes into global biogeochemical models. Here, we used a global scale dataset in the top soil surface (>3000 distinct observations of soil fungal and bacterial abundance) to generate the first quantitative and spatially high resolution (1km) explicit map of soil fungal proportion, defined as fungi/fungi + bacteria, across terrestrial ecosystems. We reveal striking latitudinal trends where fungal dominance increases in cold and high latitude environments with large soil carbon stocks. There was strong non-linear response of fungal 50 dominance to environmental gradient, i.e., mean annual temperature (MAT) and net primary productivity (NPP). Fungi and bacteria dominated in regions with low and high MAT and NPP, respectively, thus representing slow vs. fast soil energy channels, a concept with a long history in soil ecology. These high-resolution models provide the first steps towards representing the major soil microbial groups and their functional differences in global biogeochemical models to improve predictions of soil organic matter turnover under current and future climate scenarios

Earth System Science Data↗

Improving ecosystem health in highly altered river basins: A generalized framework and its application to the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin

Continued large-scale public investment in declining ecosystems depends on demonstrations of “success”. While the public conception of “success” often focuses on restoration to a pre-disturbance condition, the scientific community is more likely to measure success in terms of improved ecosystem health. Using a combination of literature review, workshops and expert solicitation we propose a generalized framework to improve ecosystem health in highly altered river basins by reducing ecosystem stressors, enhancing ecosystem processes and increasing ecosystem resilience. We illustrate the use of this framework in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) of the central United States (U.S.), by (i) identifying key stressors related to human activities, and (ii) creating a conceptual ecosystem model relating those stressors to effects on ecosystem structure and processes. As a result of our analysis, we identify a set of landscape-level indicators of ecosystem health, emphasizing leading indicators of stressor removal (e.g., reduced anthropogenic nutrient inputs), increased ecosystem function (e.g., increased water storage in the landscape) and increased resilience (e.g., changes in the percentage of perennial vegetative cover). We suggest that by including these indicators, along with lagging indicators such as direct measurements of water quality, stakeholders will be better able to assess the effectiveness of management actions. For example, if both leading and lagging indicators show improvement over time, then management actions are on track to attain desired ecosystem condition. If, however, leading indicators are not improving or even declining, then fundamental challenges to ecosystem health remain to be addressed and failure to address these will ultimately lead to declines in lagging indicators such as water quality. Although our model and indicators are specific to the MARB, we believe that the generalized framework and the process of model and indicator development will be valuable in an array of altered river basins.

Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin↗

A brief history and summary of the effects of river engineering and dams on the Mississippi River system and delta

The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong project is providing technical assistance and information to aid management decisions and build science capacity of institutions in the Mekong River Basin. A component of this effort is to produce a synthesis of the effects of dams and other engineering structures on large-river hydrology, sediment transport, geomorphology, ecology, water quality, and deltaic systems. The Mississippi River Basin (MRB) of the United States was used as the backdrop and context for this synthesis because it is a continental scale river system with a total annual water discharge proportional to the Mekong River, has been highly engineered over the past two centuries, and the effects of engineering have been widely studied and documented by scientists and engineers. The MRB is controlled and regulated by dams and river-engineering structures. These modifications have resulted in multiple benefits including navigation, flood control, hydropower, bank stabilization, and recreation. Dams and other river-engineering structures in the MRB have afforded the United States substantial socioeconomic benefits; however, these benefits also have transformed the hydrologic, sediment transport, geomorphic, water-quality, and ecologic characteristics of the river and its delta. Large dams on the middle Missouri River have substantially reduced the magnitude of peak floods, increased base discharges, and reduced the overall variability of intraannual discharges. The extensive system of levees and wing dikes throughout the MRB, although providing protection from intermediate magnitude floods, have reduced overall channel capacity and increased flood stage by up to 4 meters for higher magnitude floods. Prior to major river engineering, the estimated average annual sediment yield of the Mississippi River Basin was approximately 400 million metric tons. The construction of large main-channel reservoirs on the Missouri and Arkansas Rivers, sedimentation in dike fields, and protection of channel banks by revetments throughout the basin, have reduced the overall sediment yield of the MRB by more than 60 percent. The primary alterations to channel morphology by dams and other engineering projects have been (1) channel simplification and reduced dynamism; (2) lowering of channel-bed elevation; and (3) disconnection of the river channel from the flood plain, except during extreme flood events. Freshwater discharge from the Mississippi River and its associated sediment and nutrient loads strongly influence the physical and biological components in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ninety percent of the nitrogen load reaching the Gulf of Mexico is from nonpoint sources with about 60 percent coming from fertilizer and mineralized soil nitrogen. Much of the phosphorus is from animal manure from pasture and rangelands followed by fertilizer applied to corn and soybeans. Increased nutrient enrichment in the northern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in the degradation of water quality as more phytoplankton grow, which increases turbidity and depletes oxygen in the lower depths creating what is known as the "dead zone." In 2002, the dead zone was 22,000 square kilometers (km2), an area similar to the size of the State of Massachusetts. Changes in the flow regime from engineered structures have had direct and indirect effects on the fish communities. The navigation pools in the upper Mississippi River have aged, and these overwintering habitats, which were created when the pools filled, have declined as sedimentation reduces water depth. Reproduction of paddlefish may have been adversely affected by dams, which impede access to suitable spawning habitats. Fishes that inhabit swift-current habitats in the unimpounded lower Mississippi River have not declined as much as in the upper Mississippi River. The decline of the pallid sturgeon may be attributable to channelization of the Missouri River above St. Louis, Missouri. The Missouri River supports a rich fish community and remains relatively intact. Nevertheless, the widespread and long history of human intervention in river discharge has contributed to the declines of about 25 percent of the species. The Mississippi River Delta Plain is built from six delta complexes composed of a massive area of coastal wetlands that support the largest commercial fishery in the conterminous United States. Since the early 20th century, approximately 4,900 km2 of coastal lands have been lost in Louisiana. One of the primary mechanisms of wetland loss on the Plaquemines-Balize complex is believed to be the disconnection of the river distributary network from the delta plain by the massive system of levees on the delta top, which prevent overbank flooding and replenishment of the delta top by sediment and nutrient deliveries. Efforts by Federal and State agencies to conserve and restore the Mississippi River Delta Plain began over three decades ago and have accelerated over the past decade. Regardless of these efforts, however, land losses are expected to continue because the reduced upstream sediment supplies are not sufficient to keep up with the projected depositional space being created by the combined forces of delta plain subsidence and global sea-level rise.

Alabama;Alberta;Arkansas;Colorado;Georgia;Illinois↗

Impacts of a non-indigenous ecosystem engineer, the American beaver (Castor canadensis), in a biodiversity hotspot

Non-native species having high per capita impacts in invaded communities are those that modulate resource availability and alter disturbance regimes in ways that are biologically incompatible with the native biota. In areas where it has been introduced by humans, American beaver ( Castor canadensis ) is an iconic example of such species due to its capacity to alter trophic dynamics of entire ecosystems and create new invasional pathways for other non-native species. The species is problematic in several watersheds within the Southern California-Northern Baja California Coast Ecoregion, a recognized hotspot of biodiversity, due to its ability to modify habitat in ways that favor invasive predators and competitors over the region's native species and habitat. Beaver was deliberately introduced across California in the mid-1900s and generally accepted as non-native to the region up to the early 2000s; however, articles promoting the idea that beaver may be a natural resident have gained traction in recent years, due in large part to the species' charismatic nature rather than by presentation of sound evidence. Here, we discuss the problems associated with beaver disturbance and its effects on conserving the region's native fauna and flora. We refute arguments underlying the claim that beaver is native to the region, and review paleontological, zooarchaeological, and historical survey data from renowned field biologists and naturalists over the past ~160 years to show that no evidence exists that beaver arrived by any means other than deliberate human introduction. Managing this ecosystem engineer has potential to reduce the richness and abundance of other non-native species because the novel, engineered habitat now supporting these species would diminish in beaver-occupied watersheds. At the same time, hydrologic functionality would shift toward more natural, ephemeral conditions that favor the regions' native species while suppressing the dominance of the most insidious invaders.

California↗

Mercury in western North America: A synthesis of environmental contamination, fluxes, bioaccumulation, and risk to fish and wildlife

Western North America is a region defined by extreme gradients in geomorphology and climate, which support a diverse array of ecological communities and natural resources. The region also has extreme gradients in mercury (Hg) contamination due to a broad distribution of inorganic Hg sources. These diverse Hg sources and a varied landscape create a unique and complex mosaic of ecological risk from Hg impairment associated with differential methylmercury (MeHg) production and bioaccumulation. Understanding the landscape-scale variation in the magnitude and relative importance of processes associated with Hg transport, methylation, and MeHg bioaccumulation requires a multidisciplinary synthesis that transcends small-scale variability. The Western North America Mercury Synthesis compiled, analyzed, and interpreted spatial and temporal patterns and drivers of Hg and MeHg in air, soil, vegetation, sediments, fish, and wildlife across western North America. This collaboration evaluated the potential risk from Hg to fish, and wildlife health, human exposure, and examined resource management activities that influenced the risk of Hg contamination. This paper integrates the key information presented across the individual papers that comprise the synthesis. The compiled information indicates that Hg contamination is widespread, but heterogeneous, across western North America. The storage and transport of inorganic Hg across landscape gradients are largely regulated by climate and land-cover factors such as plant productivity and precipitation. Importantly, there was a striking lack of concordance between pools and sources of inorganic Hg, and MeHg in aquatic food webs. Additionally, water management had a widespread influence on MeHg bioaccumulation in aquatic ecosystems, whereas mining impacts where relatively localized. These results highlight the decoupling of inorganic Hg sources with MeHg production and bioaccumulation. Together the findings indicate that developing efforts to control MeHg production in the West may be particularly beneficial for reducing food web exposure instead of efforts to simply control inorganic Hg sources.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Contribution of arsenic and uranium in private wells and community water systems to urinary biomarkers in US adults: The Strong Heart Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (As) and uranium (U) in the United States (US) occurs from unregulated private wells and federally regulated community water systems (CWSs). The contribution of water to total exposure is assumed to be low when water As and U concentrations are low. Objective We examined the contribution of water As and U to urinary biomarkers in the Strong Heart Family Study (SHFS), a prospective study of American Indian communities, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective study of racially/ethnically diverse urban U.S. communities. Methods We assigned residential zip code-level estimates in CWSs (µg/L) and private wells (90th percentile probability of As >10 µg/L) to up to 1485 and 6722 participants with dietary information and urinary biomarkers in the SHFS (2001–2003) and MESA (2000–2002; 2010–2011), respectively. Urine As was estimated as the sum of inorganic and methylated species, and urine U was total uranium. We used linear mixed-effects models to account for participant clustering and removed the effect of dietary sources via regression adjustment. Results The median (interquartile range) urine As was 5.32 (3.29, 8.53) and 6.32 (3.34, 12.48) µg/L for SHFS and MESA, respectively, and urine U was 0.037 (0.014, 0.071) and 0.007 (0.003, 0.018) µg/L. In a meta-analysis across both studies, urine As was 11% (95% CI: 3, 20%) higher and urine U was 35% (5, 73%) higher per twofold higher CWS As and U, respectively. In the SHFS, zip-code level factors such as private well and CWS As contributed 46% of variation in urine As, while in MESA, zip-code level factors, e.g., CWS As and U, contribute 30 and 49% of variation in urine As and U, respectively. Impact statement We found that water from unregulated private wells and regulated CWSs is a major contributor to urinary As and U (an estimated measure of internal dose) in both rural, American Indian populations and urban, racially/ethnically diverse populations nationwide, even at levels below the current regulatory standard. Our findings indicate that additional drinking water interventions, regulations, and policies can have a major impact on reducing total exposures to As and U, which are linked to adverse health effects even at low levels.

Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epid↗

Evaluation of EPT macroinvertebrate metrics in small streams located within the non-connected stormwater management region of Kansas City, Missouri, USA

During 2012-2014, we evaluated macroinvertebrate communities in streams draining the non-connected stormwater management region (Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System, or MS4) within the Kansas City metropolitan area utilizing the Missouri bioassessment protocols. Trends in aquatic life impairment status based on Missouri's Macroinvertebrate Stream Condition Index (MSCI), as well as richness and abundance of EPT indicator metrics (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera), were compared between rural control sites and both transitional and urban stream sites representing varying stages of land use conversion. As compared to non-urban control sites, EPT taxa richness was significantly lower at MS4 urban sites during all three years (p = 0.007 – 0.013) and MS4 transitional sites during one of three years (p=0.48). EPT abundance (%) was significantly lower at MS4 urban sites during all years (p = 0.008 – 0.013) and MS4 transitional sites during one of three years (p=0.34). Mean EPT abundances ranged between 0.6% - 10.3% at urban MS4 sites, and always exceeded 18% at control sites. Both EPT richness and abundance were lower at the MS4 control site but means for EPT and other core metrics at this site were most often similar to non-urban control sites based on analysis of variance (ANOVA). MS4 transitional sites with active development in their watersheds were partially-supporting in their impairment status, and EPT metrics had lower means and generally more variability than control sites. Temporal trends indicate non-urban control and MS4 control sites consistently meet fully-supporting impairment status based on overall MSCI scores, but no study sites currently meet regional expectations (as defined by state reference streams) for either of the EPT metrics. Results indicate that Missouri and Kansas biocriteria for both EPT metrics are not consistently being met at any stream sites in the Kansas City metro area, including fully-supporting control sites and MS4 streams that receive stormwater runoff in watersheds with urban development that is well-established or currently transitioning to urban or suburban land uses.

Missouri↗

Accurate bathymetric maps from underwater digital imagery without ground control

Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry can be used with digital underwater photographs to generate high-resolution bathymetry and orthomosaics with millimeter-to-centimeter scale resolution at relatively low cost. Although these products are useful for assessing species diversity and health, they have additional utility for quantifying benthic community structure, such as coral growth and fine-scale elevation change over time, if accurate length scales and georeferencing are included. This georeferencing is commonly provided with “ground control,” such as pre-installed seafloor benchmarks or identifiable “static” features, which can be difficult and time consuming to install, survey, and maintain. To address these challenges, we developed the SfM Quantitative Underwater Imaging Device with Five Cameras (SQUID-5), a towed surface vehicle with an onboard survey-grade Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and five rigidly mounted downward-looking cameras with overlapping views of the seafloor. The cameras are tightly synchronized with both the GNSS and each other to collect quintet photo sets and record the precise location of every collection event. The system was field tested in July 2019 in the U.S. Florida Keys, in water depths ranging from 3 to 9 m over a variety of bottom types. Surveying accuracy was assessed using pre-installed stations with known coordinates, machined scale bars, and two independent surveys of a site to evaluate repeatability. Under a range of sea conditions, ambient lighting, and water clarity, we were able to map living and senile coral reef habitats and sand waves at mm-scale resolution. Data were processed using best practice SfM techniques without ground control and local measurement errors of horizontal and vertical scales were consistently sub-millimeter, equivalent to 0.013% RMSE relative to water depth. Survey-to-survey repeatability RMSE was on the order of 3 cm without georeferencing but could be improved to several millimeters with the incorporation of one or more non-surveyed marker points. We demonstrate that the SQUID-5 platform can map complex coral reef and other seafloor habitats and measure mm-to-cm scale changes in the morphology and location of seafloor features over time without pre-existing ground control.

Florida↗

Improved wetland soil organic carbon stocks of the conterminous U.S. through data harmonization

Wetland soil stocks are important global repositories of carbon (C) but are difficult to quantify and model due to varying sampling protocols, and geomorphic/spatio-temporal discontinuity. Merging scales of soil-survey spatial extents with wetland-specific point-based data offers an explicit, empirical and updatable improvement for regional and continental scale soil C stock assessments. Agency-collected (U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) and community-contributed soil datasets were compared for representativeness and bias, with the goal of producing a harmonized national map of wetland soil C stocks with error quantification for wetland areas of the conterminous United States (CONUS) identified by the USGS National Landcover Change Dataset (NLCD). This allowed application of an empirical predictive model of SOC density to be applied across the entire CONUS using relational %OC distribution alone. A broken-stick quantile-regression model identified %OC with its relatively high analytical confidence as a key predictor of SOC density in soil segments; soils less than 6%OC (hereafter, mineral wetland soils, 85% of the dataset) had a strong linear relationship of %OC to SOC density (RMSE = 0.0059, ~4% mean RMSE) and soils greater than 6%OC (organic wetland soils, 15% of the dataset) had virtually no predictive relationship of %OC to SOC density (RMSE = 0.0348 g C cm-3, ~56% mean RMSE). Disaggregation by vegetation type (woody v. emergent herbaceous), or region did not alter the breakpoint significantly (6% OC) nor improve model accuracies for inland and tidal wetlands. Similarly, SOC stocks in tidal wetlands were related to %OC, but without a mappable product for disaggregation to improve accuracy by soil class, region or depth. Our layered, harmonized CONUS wetland soil maps have now revised wetland SOC stock estimates downward by 24% (9.5 vs. 12.5Pg C) with the overestimation being entirely an issue of inland, organic wetland soils, (35% lower than SSURGO-derived SOC stocks). Further, SSURGO underestimated soil carbon stocks at depth, as modeled wetland SOC stocks for organic-rich soils showed significant preservation downcore in the NWCA dataset (<3% loss between 0-30 cm and 30-100 cm depths) in contrast to mineral-rich soils (37% downcore stock loss). Future CONUS wetland soil C assessments will benefit from focused attention on improved organic wetland soil measurements, land history, and spatial representativeness.

Frontiers in Soil Science↗

Simulated estuary-wide response of seagrass (Zostera marina) to future scenarios of temperature and sea level

Seagrass communities are a vital component of estuarine ecosystems, but are threatened by projected sea level rise (SLR) and temperature increases with climate change. To understand these potential effects, we developed a spatially explicit model that represents seagrass ( Zostera marina ) habitat and estuary-wide productivity for Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor (BB-LEH) in New Jersey, United States. Our modeling approach included an offline coupling of a numerical seagrass biomass model with the spatially variable environmental conditions from a hydrodynamic model to calculate above and belowground biomass at each grid cell of the hydrodynamic model domain. Once calibrated to represent present day seagrass habitat and estuary-wide annual productivity, we applied combinations of increasing air temperature and sea level following regionally specific climate change projections, enabling analysis of the individual and combined impacts of these variables on seagrass biomass and spatial coverage. Under the SLR scenarios, the current model domain boundaries were maintained, as the land surrounding BB-LEH is unlikely to shift significantly in the future. SLR caused habitat extent to decrease dramatically, pushing seagrass beds toward the coastline with increasing depth, with a 100% loss of habitat by the maximum SLR scenario. The dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under SLR was in part due to the assumption that surrounding land would not be inundated, as the model did not allow for habitat expansion outside the current boundaries of the bay. Temperature increases slightly elevated the rate of summer die-off and decreased habitat area only under the highest temperature increase scenarios. In combined scenarios, the effects of SLR far outweighed the effects of temperature increase. Sensitivity analysis of the model revealed the greatest sensitivity to changes in parameters affecting light limitation and seagrass mortality, but no sensitivity to changes in nutrient limitation constants. The high vulnerability of seagrass in the bay to SLR exceeded that demonstrated for other systems, highlighting the importance of site- and region-specific assessments of estuaries under climate change.

New Jersey↗

Metagenomic analysis of planktonic microbial consortia from a non-tidal urban-impacted segment of James River

Knowledge of the diversity and ecological function of the microbial consortia of James River in Virginia, USA, is essential to developing a more complete understanding of the ecology of this model river system. Metagenomic analysis of James River's planktonic microbial community was performed for the first time using an unamplified genomic library and a 16S rDNA amplicon library prepared and sequenced by Ion PGM and MiSeq, respectively. From the 0.46-Gb WGS library (GenBank:SRR1146621; MG-RAST:4532156.3), 4 × 10 6 reads revealed >3 × 10 6 genes, 240 families of prokaryotes, and 155 families of eukaryotes. From the 0.68-Gb 16S library (GenBank:SRR2124995; MG-RAST:4631271.3; EMB:2184), 4 × 10 6 reads revealed 259 families of eubacteria. Results of the WGS and 16S analyses were highly consistent and indicated that more than half of the bacterial sequences were Proteobacteria , predominantly Comamonadaceae . The most numerous genera in this group were Acidovorax (including iron oxidizers, nitrotolulene degraders, and plant pathogens), which accounted for 10 % of assigned bacterial reads. Polaromonas were another 6 % of all bacterial reads, with many assignments to groups capable of degrading polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Albidiferax (iron reducers) and Variovorax (biodegraders of a variety of natural biogenic compounds as well as anthropogenic contaminants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and endocrine disruptors) each accounted for an additional 3 % of bacterial reads. Comparison of these data to other publically-available aquatic metagenomes revealed that this stretch of James River is highly similar to the upper Mississippi River, and that these river systems are more similar to aquaculture and sludge ecosystems than they are to lakes or to a pristine section of the upper Amazon River. Taken together, these analyses exposed previously unknown aspects of microbial biodiversity, documented the ecological responses of microbes to urban effects, and revealed the noteworthy presence of 22 human-pathogenic bacterial genera (e.g., Enterobacteriaceae , pathogenic Pseudomonadaceae , and ‘ Vibrionales' ) and 6 pathogenic eukaryotic genera (e.g., Trypanosomatidae and Vahlkampfiidae). This information about pathogen diversity may be used to promote human epidemiological studies, enhance existing water quality monitoring efforts, and increase awareness of the possible health risks associated with recreational use of James River.

Virginia↗

Forecasting explosions at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia, based on SO2 emission rates

Dome-building volcanic eruptions are often associated with frequent Vulcanian explosions, which constitute a substantial threat to proximal communities. One proposed mechanism driving such explosions is the sealing of the shallow volcanic system followed by pressurization due to gas accumulation beneath the seal. We investigate this hypothesis at Sinabung Volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia), which has been in a state of eruption since August 2010. In 2013, the volcano began erupting a lava dome and lava flow, and frequent explosions produced eruptive columns that rose many kilometers into the atmosphere and at times sent pyroclastic density currents down the southeast flanks. A network of scanning Differential Optical Absorption Spectrometers (DOAS) was installed on the volcano’s eastern flank in 2016 to continuously monitor SO 2 emission rates during daytime hours. Analysis of the DOAS data from October 2016 to September 2017 revealed that passive SO 2 emissions were generally lower in the 5 days leading up to explosive events (∼100 t/d) than was common in 5-day periods leading up to days on which no explosions occurred (∼200 t/d). The variability of passive SO 2 emissions, expressed as the standard deviation, also took on a slightly wider range of values before days with explosions (0–103 t/d at 1-sigma) than before days without explosions (43–117 t/d). These observations are consistent with the aforementioned seal-failure model, where the sealing of the volcanic conduit blocks gas emissions and leads to pressurization and potential Vulcanian explosions. We develop a forecasting methodology that allows calculation of a relative daily explosion probability based solely on measurements of the SO 2 emission rate in the preceding days. We then calculate forecast explosion probabilities for the remaining SO 2 emissions dataset (October 2017—September 2021). While the absolute accuracy of forecast explosion probabilities is variable, the method can inform the probability of an explosion occurring relative to that on other days in each test period. This information can be used operationally by volcano observatories to assess relative risk. The SO 2 emissions-based forecasting method is likely applicable to other open vent volcanoes experiencing dome-forming eruptions.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

Global review reveals how disparate study motivations, analytical designs, and focal ions limit understanding of salinization effects on freshwater animals

Global salinization of freshwaters is adversely affecting biotic communities and ecosystem processes. We reviewed six decades (1960–2020) of literature published on animal responses to increased salinities across different taxonomic and ecological contexts and identified knowledge gaps. From 585 journal articles, we characterized 5924 responses of mollusks, crustaceans, zooplankton, non-arthropod invertebrates (NAI), insects, fishes, and amphibians to salinization. Insects and fishes were the most studied taxa; Na + and Cl − were the most studied ions − . Collectively, concentrations of the ions examined typically spanned five orders of magnitude. Species' invasiveness was a key motivation for studying mollusks, crustaceans, and fishes; threats of urbanization and road salts were key motivations for studying NAI, zooplankton, and amphibians. Laboratory studies were more common than field studies for most taxa. Focal life stages in laboratory studies varied widely but juveniles and adults were represented similarly in field studies. Studies of mollusks, NAI, and crustacean focused on adults; studies of zooplankton, insects, fishes, and amphibians focused on juveniles. Organismal- and population-level responses measuring solute uptake, internal chemistry, body condition, or ion concentrations predominated laboratory studies; population- and assemblage-level responses measuring abundance, spatial distribution, or assemblage composition predominated field studies. Negative responses to salinization predominated but positive and unimodal responses were apparent across all taxa and organizational levels. Key topics for further research include a) salinity responses by more taxa, b) responses to especially toxic ions (i.e., potassium, bicarbonate, sulfate, magnesium), c) mechanisms causing positive and unimodal responses, d) traits underpinning responses, e) effects transcending organizational levels, f) ion-specific response thresholds, and g) interactions between salinity and other stressors. Our review suggests inter-taxa variation in sensitivity to salinization reflects occurrence of certain biological traits, including gill-breathing, semi-permeable skin, multiple life stages, and limited mobility. We propose a traits-based framework to predict salinization sensitivity from shared traits. This evolutionary approach could inform management aimed at preventing or reducing adverse impacts of freshwater salinization.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Book review: Proceedings of the First International Snakehead Symposium

Snakehead fishes (family Channidae) are among the most maligned aquatic invasive species in the USA and some other countries where they have been introduced outside of their native range in Asia and Africa. Nevertheless, snakeheads continue to be widely exploited in the live‐food trade in aquaculture and wild‐capture fisheries, are highly sought by anglers, and are also popular in the aquarium trade (Courtenay and Williams 2004). The Northern Snakehead Channa argus is the most widespread of the three channid species that are currently naturalized in the USA. This species has generated much concern and controversy, a situation that is partly fueled by sensational media coverage and B‐grade science fiction horror films, such as “Frankenfish,” “Snakehead Terror,” and “Snakehead Swamp.” Media reports of snakehead introductions are often replete with provocative terms, such as “vicious,” “villain,” “voracious,” “monster,” “diabolical,” and even “ecological Armageddon.” When snakeheads first appeared in natural waters of the USA, fisheries professionals became increasingly interested in their status. Established populations rapidly expanded in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas, with scattered reports of introduced snakeheads from isolated locations in Hawaii, California, North Carolina, Florida, the Upper Midwest, and New England. In 2002, snakeheads were added to the list of injurious fishes under the Lacey Act, thereby prohibiting their importation or transport across state lines without a permit. This symposium was conceived by the editors and other concerned fisheries professionals of the Mississippi River Basin Panel on Aquatic Invasive Species. The mission of the symposium, held in Alexandria, Virginia, in July 2018, was to bring together experts on snakehead biology and ecology and to synthesize existing information into summary papers. In this book, 35 authors contributed to 15 peer‐reviewed articles that detail the current state of knowledge about snakehead introductions in the USA. Additionally, 16 abstracts are included from meeting presentations that were not accompanied by full‐length manuscripts. Also included is a summary of a facilitated symposium panel discussion featuring eight experts representing state and federal natural resource agencies and private fishing organizations. The book is organized into six sections. In the first section (Distribution), three papers provide an overview of the Channa species introduced into the USA and historical accounts of occurrence and dispersal of the Northern Snakehead in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas. The second section (Biology/Ecology) consists of two articles that examine growth and energetics of Northern Snakehead populations and two papers that investigate diet, diel feeding activity, and movement of this species in the Potomac River drainage. The third section (Monitoring/Response) includes a paper that models range expansion of the Northern Snakehead in the southeastern USA based on occurrence data and environmental conditions. Also included in this section is a paper summarizing an environmental DNA study to assess the status and range of the Bullseye Snakehead C. marulius in southern Florida. The fourth section (Management/Control) is comprised of four papers that address harvest, age and growth, and development of a stock–recruitment model to inform management decisions regarding control and mitigation for Northern Snakehead populations in the greater Chesapeake Bay area. The fifth section (Perspectives) includes a paper on the history of snakehead introductions in Japan and a thought‐provoking social commentary on the human dimensions of Northern Snakehead management. Abstracts in the final section provide brief summaries of a diversity of snakehead studies, including aspects of distribution, ecology, behavior, control and monitoring efforts, public outreach, and pathology. The summary of the panel discussion is an engaging dialogue about the challenges of snakehead management in the context of conflicts regarding snakeheads as injurious versus their value as game and food species. Most of this book is focused on the Northern Snakehead. Much has been done to document snakehead distributions and certain aspects of snakehead biology, such as diets, age, and growth. Less research has been devoted to understanding the ecological impacts of snakeheads to native aquatic communities and ecosystems. This book would have benefited from a chapter summarizing the current systematics and diversity of the Channidae to inform fisheries biologists about the morphological characteristics of the family, approximate numbers of genera and species, and taxonomic instability. Exemplifying the latter, recent molecular and morphological evidence indicates uncertainty regarding identification of the feral snakehead population in Florida (Adamson and Britz 2019). Those authors suggest that this population may have originated from western Thailand, a possibility that could have implications for understanding historical pathways of snakehead introductions into the USA. In comparison with many published AFS symposia, this volume is relatively narrow in scope and lacks cohesive integration. It will primarily be of interest to those fisheries professionals engaged in the study of snakeheads as well as other nonnative species for which there are contrasting social values regarding their management: whether to monitor and attempt control or eradication efforts or to maintain populations for harvest as game or food species. The book should serve to identify information gaps and guide future research.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗