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Assessing cormorant populations and association with fish stocking in Texas

—Double-Crested Cormorants ( Nannopterum auritum ) and Neotropic Cormorants ( Nannopterum brasilianum ) are thought to be expanding their populations across Texas. This expansion is cause for a concern for both fish stocking and fisheries management in public waters. To examine the historic and current populations and distributions of cormorants, we first evaluated the temporal and spatial patterns of cormorants in Texas. Also, because cormorants are thought to depredate public fisheries, we conducted a small observational field study to assess cormorant presence and behavior at lakes relative to fish stocking. We compiled Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data for both species over a period of fifty years (1970 to 2019). We assessed changes in detection rates at CBCs among years as evidence of population trends during the winter, and changes in distance from the Gulf Coast of CBCs reporting cormorants for evidence of changes in distribution. Our results suggest that winter populations of Double-Crested Cormorants are relatively stable, with no meaningful change in distribution. In contrast, Neotropic Cormorants appear to be both increasing in number and expanding their range. Our assessment of cormorant abundance and behavior at stocked and unstocked lakes from December through February revealed a significant difference in detections among the stocked lakes during pre- and post-stocking but no significant difference among the control lakes.

Texas↗

Burrowing owl nesting productivity: A comparison between artificial and natural burrows on and off golf courses

Burrowing owl ( Athene cunicularia ) populations are declining in many portions of their range, and lack of suitable nesting burrows is thought to be one reason for observed declines. Burrowing owls are attracted to golf courses because the birds generally nest and forage in short-grass, open areas, yet golf courses seldom have suitable nesting burrows. We examined the efficacy of installing artificial nesting burrows on golf courses as a way to help restore local burrowing owl populations. From 2001–2004 we monitored over 175 natural burrows off golf courses, 14 natural burrows on golf courses, 86 artificial burrows off golf courses, and 130 artificial burrows on golf courses. Owls located and used 8 of the 130 artificial burrows installed on golf courses (4 were used as nests). Owls selected burrows that were closer to existing natural burrows, farther from maintained areas (areas receiving turf maintenance by golf course staff), and farther from sprinkler heads. All 4 of the artificial burrows used as nests successfully fledged young, and annual site fidelity for owls nesting on golf courses was higher than for owls nesting off golf courses. However, annual fecundity of owls nesting on golf courses was lower than that of owls nesting off golf courses. If golf courses have sufficiently large nonmaintained areas and there are nesting owls nearby, course managers potentially can help in restoring local burrowing owl populations by installing artificial nesting burrows on the periphery of the course. However, the low fecundity on golf courses reported here should be more thoroughly examined before artificial burrows are used to attract owls to golf courses.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heat waves, are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the coming years, and understanding their impacts on demographic rates is of increasing interest to both evolutionary ecologists and conservation practitioners. An individual's breeding probability can be a sensitive indicator of the decision to initiate reproductive behavior under varying environmental conditions, has strong fitness consequences, and can be considered the first step in a life history trade-off between allocating resources for breeding activities or self-survival. Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite ( Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus ). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (>1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly <1 for all 13 estimable years considered. Our results suggest that experience is an important factor determining whether or not individuals attempt to breed during harsh environmental conditions and that reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

Florida↗

Incidental catch of marine birds in the north pacific high seas driftnet fisheries in 1990

The incidental take of marine birds was estimated for the following North Pacific driftnet fisheries in 1990: Japanese squid, Japanese large-mesh, Korean squid, and Taiwanese squid and large-mesh combined. The take was estimated by assuming that the data represented a random sample from an unstratified population of all driftnet fisheries in the North Pacific. Estimates for 13 species or species groups are presented, along with some discussion of inadequacies of the design. About 416,000 marine birds were estimated to be taken incidentally during the 1990 season; 80% of these were in the Japanese squid fishery. Sooty Shearwaters, Short-tailed Shearwaters, and Laysan Albatrosses were the most common species in the bycatch.Regression models were also developed to explore the relations between bycatch rate of three groups--Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, and 'dark' shearwaters--and various explanatory variables, such as latitude, longitude, month, vessel, sea surface temperature, and net soak time (length of time nets were in the water). This was done for only the Japanese squid fishery, for which the most complete information was available. For modelling purposes, fishing operations for each vessel were grouped into 5-degree blocks of latitude and longitude.Results of model building indicated that vessel had a significant influence on bycatch rates of all three groups. This finding emphasizes the importance of the sample of vessels being representative of the entire fleet. In addition, bycatch rates of all three groups varied spatially and temporally. Bycatch rates for Laysan Albatrosses tended to decline during the fishing season, whereas those for Black-footed Albatrosses and dark shearwaters tended to increase as the season progressed. Bycatch rates were positively related to net soak time for Laysan Albatrosses and dark shearwaters. Bycatch rates of dark shearwaters were lower for higher sea surface temperatures.

International North Pacific Fisheries Commission B↗

Geese migrating over the Pacific Ocean select altitudes coinciding with offshore wind turbine blades

Renewable energy facilities are a key part of mitigating climate change, but can pose threats to wild birds and bats, most often through collisions with infrastructure. Understanding collision risk and the factors affecting it can help minimize impacts on wild populations. For wind turbines, flight altitude is a major factor influencing collision risk, and altitude-selection analyses can evaluate when and why animals fly at certain altitudes under certain conditions. We used GPS tags to track Pacific Flyway geese (Pacific greater white-fronted goose, tule greater white-fronted goose and lesser snow goose) on transoceanic migrations between Alaska and the Pacific Coast of the contiguous United States, an area where offshore windfarm development is beginning. We evaluated how geographic and environmental covariates affected (1) whether birds were at rest on the water versus in flight (binomial model) and (2) altitude selection when in flight (similar to a step-selection framework). We then used a Monte Carlo simulation to predict the probability of flying at each altitude under various conditions, considering both the fly/rest decision and altitude selection. In both spring and fall, geese showed strong selection for altitudes within the expected rotor-swept zone (20–200 m asl), with 56% of locations expected to be within the rotor-swept zone under mean daylight conditions and 28% at night. This indicates a high possibility that migrating geese may be at risk of collision when passing through windfarms. Although there was some variation across subspecies, geese were most likely to be within the rotor-swept zone with little wind or light tailwinds, low clouds, little to no precipitation and moderate to cool air temperatures. Geese were unlikely to be in the rotor-swept zone at night, when most individuals were at rest on the water. Synthesis and applications . These results could be used to inform windfarm management, including decisions to shut down turbines when collision risk is high. The altitude-selection framework we demonstrate could facilitate further study of other bird species to develop a holistic view of how windfarms in this area could affect the migratory bird community as a whole.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Bird response to silviculture induced change in forest structure within bottomland hardwood forests

Silvicultural treatments prescribed to encourage development of desired stand structure (i.e., wildlife-forestry) should result in increased abundance of many bird species of management concern, especially species using dense understory habitat. Desired forest conditions within bottomland vary among sites, but average 60-70% overstory canopy that is heterogeneously distributed with >5 dominant trees/ha retained, and a basal area of 14-16 m2/ha. Desired mid-story and understory cover are between 25-40%. Cavity trees (small and large) as well as dead and/or stressed trees should be retained, ultimately providing >14 m3/ha coarse woody debris, and shade-intolerant tree regeneration should be present on 30-40% of the area. We assessed avian response to prescribed wildlife-forestry silviculture treatments via distance-adjusted point counts and constant effort mist-netting within forest stands on Tensas River National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Louisiana. More species and individuals were detected within stands 1-13 years post-treatment than within untreated stands. Most species, especially species benefiting from disturbance, increased in density after treatment. A few species decreased in density, yet remained fairly relatively abundant post-treatment. Captures from netting suggested three generalized responses to wildlife-forestry silviculture: (1) species with rapid, short-duration positive response, (2) species with slower but more prolonged positive response, and (3) species which initially declined but had long-term positive population response. We recommend increased use of prescribed wildlife-forestry silvicultural prescriptions to enhance bottomland forest habitat for priority bird species.

Book chapter↗

Population ecology of breeding Pacific common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska declined by 50–90% from 1957 to 1992 and then stabilized at reduced numbers from the early 1990s to the present. We investigated the underlying processes affecting their population dynamics by collection and analysis of demographic data from Pacific common eiders at 3 sites on the YKD (1991–2004) for 29 site-years. We examined variation in components of reproduction, tested hypotheses about the influence of specific ecological factors on life-history variables, and investigated their relative contributions to local population dynamics. Reproductive output was low and variable, both within and among individuals, whereas apparent survival of adult females was high and relatively invariant (0.89 ± 0.005). All reproductive parameters varied across study sites and years. Clutch initiation dates ranged from 4 May to 28 June, with peak (modal) initiation occurring on 26 May. Females at an island study site consistently initiated clutches 3–5 days earlier in each year than those on 2 mainland sites. Population variance in nest initiation date was negatively related to the peak, suggesting increased synchrony in years of delayed initiation. On average, total clutch size (laid) ranged from 4.8 to 6.6 eggs, and declined with date of nest initiation. After accounting for partial predation and non-viability of eggs, average clutch size at hatch ranged from 2.0 to 5.8 eggs. Within seasons, daily survival probability (DSP) of nests was lowest during egg-laying and late-initiation dates. Estimated nest survival varied considerably across sites and years (mean = 0.55, range: 0.06–0.92), but process variance in nest survival was relatively low (0.02, CI: 0.01–0.05), indicating that most variance was likely attributed to sampling error. We found evidence that observer effects may have reduced overall nest survival by 0.0–0.36 across site-years. Study sites with lower sample sizes and more frequent visitations appeared to experience greater observer effects. In general, Pacific common eiders exhibited high spatio-temporal variance in reproductive components. Larger clutch sizes and high nest survival at early initiation dates suggested directional selection favoring early nesting. However, stochastic environmental effects may have precluded response to this apparent selection pressure. Our results suggest that females breeding early in the season have the greatest reproductive value, as these birds lay the largest clutches and have the highest probability of successfully hatching. We developed stochastic, stage-based, matrix population models that incorporated observed spatio-temporal (process) variance and co-variation in vital rates, and projected the stable stage distribution () and population growth rate (λ). We used perturbation analyses to examine the relative influence of changes in vital rates on λ and variance decomposition to assess the proportion of variation in λ explained by process variation in each vital rate. In addition to matrix-based λ, we estimated λ using capture–recapture approaches, and log-linear regression. We found the stable age distribution for Pacific common eiders was weighted heavily towards experienced adult females (≥4 yr of age), and all calculations of λ indicated that the YKD population was stable to slightly increasing (λmatrix = 1.02, CI: 1.00–1.04); λreverse-capture–recapture = 1.05, CI: 0.99–1.11; λlog-linear = 1.04, CI: 0.98–1.10). Perturbation analyses suggested the population would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival (relative influence of adult survival was 1.5 times that of fecundity), whereas retrospective variation in λ was primarily explained by fecundity parameters (60%), particularly duckling survival (42%). Among components of fecundity, sensitivities were highest for duckling survival, suggesti

Alaska↗

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Modelling↗

Occupancy in continuous habitat

The probability that a site has at least one individual of a species ('occupancy') has come to be widely used as a state variable for animal population monitoring. The available statistical theory for estimation when detection is imperfect applies particularly to habitat patches or islands, although it is also used for arbitrary plots in continuous habitat. The probability that such a plot is occupied depends on plot size and home-range characteristics (size, shape and dispersion) as well as population density. Plot size is critical to the definition of occupancy as a state variable, but clear advice on plot size is missing from the literature on the design of occupancy studies. We describe models for the effects of varying plot size and home-range size on expected occupancy. Temporal, spatial, and species variation in average home-range size is to be expected, but information on home ranges is difficult to retrieve from species presence/absence data collected in occupancy studies. The effect of variable home-range size is negligible when plots are very large (>100 x area of home range), but large plots pose practical problems. At the other extreme, sampling of 'point' plots with cameras or other passive detectors allows the true 'proportion of area occupied' to be estimated. However, this measure equally reflects home-range size and density, and is of doubtful value for population monitoring or cross-species comparisons. Plot size is ill-defined and variable in occupancy studies that detect animals at unknown distances, the commonest example being unlimited-radius point counts of song birds. We also find that plot size is ill-defined in recent treatments of "multi-scale" occupancy; the respective scales are better interpreted as temporal (instantaneous and asymptotic) rather than spatial. Occupancy is an inadequate metric for population monitoring when it is confounded with home-range size or detection distance.

Ecosphere↗

Simulating mechanisms for dispersal, production and stranding of small forage fish in temporary wetland habitats

Movement strategies of small forage fish (<8 cm total length) between temporary and permanent wetland habitats affect their overall population growth and biomass concentrations, i.e., availability to predators. These fish are often the key energy link between primary producers and top predators, such as wading birds, which require high concentrations of stranded fish in accessible depths. Expansion and contraction of seasonal wetlands induce a sequential alternation between rapid biomass growth and concentration, creating the conditions for local stranding of small fish as they move in response to varying water levels. To better understand how landscape topography, hydrology, and fish behavior interact to create high densities of stranded fish, we first simulated population dynamics of small fish, within a dynamic food web, with different traits for movement strategy and growth rate, across an artificial, spatially explicit, heterogeneous, two-dimensional marsh slough landscape, using hydrologic variability as the driver for movement. Model output showed that fish with the highest tendency to invade newly flooded marsh areas built up the largest populations over long time periods with stable hydrologic patterns. A higher probability to become stranded had negative effects on long-term population size, and offset the contribution of that species to stranded biomass. The model was next applied to the topography of a 10 km × 10 km area of Everglades landscape. The details of the topography were highly important in channeling fish movements and creating spatiotemporal patterns of fish movement and stranding. This output provides data that can be compared in the future with observed locations of fish biomass concentrations, or such surrogates as phosphorus ‘hotspots’ in the marsh.

Ecological Modelling↗

Balancing model generality and specificity in management-focused habitat selection models for Gunnison sage-grouse

Identifying, protecting, and restoring habitats for declining wildlife populations is foundational to conservation and recovery planning for any species at risk of decline. Resource selection analysis is a key tool to assess habitat and prescribe management actions. Yet, it can be challenging to map suitable resource conditions across a wide range of ecological contexts and use the resulting models to identify effective and universal habitat improvement actions. We developed a management-centric modeling approach that sought to balance the need to evaluate the consistency of key habitat conditions and improvement actions across multiple, distinct populations, while allowing context-specific environmental variables and spatial scales to nuance selection responses that form the basis of location-specific management prescriptions. To demonstrate this approach, we developed a set of habitat selection models for Gunnison sage-grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ), a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conservation, species recovery, and habitat management efforts are needed in six isolated satellite populations (San Miguel, Crawford, Piñon Mesa, Dove Creek, Cerro Summit-Cimarron-Sims, and Poncha Pass) where environmental conditions differ, and the already small number of birds are declining. We used multi-scale and seasonal resource selection analyses to quantify relationships between environmental conditions and sites used by animals. All models included key habitat variables often altered through management actions to assess their differential influences across models. We found important similarities and differences among satellites, indicating that, although some rules of thumb are generally well-grounded, the consideration of population-specific environmental differences could increase the efficiency of local habitat improvement actions. Sage-grouse also had diverse responses to resource conditions at different scales, indicating that regional spatial (e.g., landscape) and local patch scale can differentially influence expected habitat improvements associated with where such management actions are implemented. Although context variables such as topography cannot be manipulated, sage-grouse associations revealed information that could guide the siting of improvement actions. This approach to balancing management objectives associated with habitat assessment may benefit spatially-structured populations with different environmental contexts and species with complex habitat needs and associations.

Colorado↗

Sea otter studies in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve: annual report 2002

Since 1995, the number of sea otters in Glacier Bay proper has increased from around 5 to more than 1200. Sea otter distribution is mostly limited to the Lower Bay, south of Sandy Cove, and is not continuous within that area. Concentrations occur in the vicinity of Sita Reef and Boulder Island and between Pt. Carolus and Rush Pt. on the west side of the Bay, although there have been occasional sightings north of Sandy Cove (Figure 1). Large portions of the Bay remain unoccupied by sea otters, but recolonization is occurring rapidly. Most prey recovered by sea otters in Glacier Bay are ecologically, commercially, or socially important species. In 2002 sea otter diet consisted of 35% clam, 26% mussel, 3% crab, 3.0% snail, 2% starfish, 11% urchins, 2% other, and 20% unidentified. Dominant clam species include the butter clam, Saxidomus gigantea , the Greenland cockle, Serripes groenlandicus , and the littleneck clam, Protothaca staminea . Urchins are primarily green urchins, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis , and the mussel is Modiolus modiolus . Crabs observed in 2002 include the Dungeness, Cancer magister , the kelp crab Pugettia gracilis , and the helmet crab, Telmessus cherigonus . Although we characterize diet at broad geographic scales, we have previously found diet to vary between sites separated by as little as several hundred meters. Dietary variation among and within sites can reflect differences in prey availability as well as individual specialization. We estimated species composition, density, biomass, and sizes of subtidal clams, urchins, and mussels at 13 sites in Glacier Bay and 5 sites in nearby Port Althorp, where sea otters have been present for at least 20 years. All sites were selected based on the presence of abundant clam siphons and the absence of sea otters (Glacier Bay) or abundant shell litter and the presence of sea otters (Port Althorp). Glacier Bay sites were selected to achieve a broad geographic sample of dense subtidal clam beds within Glacier Bay prior to occupation and foraging by sea otters. Port Althorp sites were chosen to achieve a representative sample of subtidal clam beds already under prolonged foraging pressure by sea otters. There was no direct evidence of otter foraging at any of our Glacier Bay sampling sites. In Glacier Bay, we sampled 15,338 bivalves (average of 1,180/site) representing 14 species of clam, 2 species of mussel, and a single scallop and we sampled 6,917 urchins (average of 513/site). In Port Althorp, we sampled 1,034 bivalves (average of 207/site) representing 14 species of clam. We found only 5 urchins, all S. droebachiensis . Mean densities and biomass of all subtidal clams were significantly greater in Glacier Bay (59.2 and 99/0.25m 2 compared to Port Althorp (10.3 and 5.8/0.25m 2 (p<0.002 for both). Our contrasts of subtidal clam populations between Glacier Bay and Port Althorp suggest that clam densities will likely decline by about a factor of six and that clam biomass estimates will decline by more than a factor of ten. Numerically dominant species of clams, P. staminea , S. gigantea , Macoma sp. and Mya sp. were all significantly greater in density and biomass in Glacier Bay, while C. nutalli density was low but significantly higher in Port Althorp. Subtidal clam species diversity was significantly greater in Port Althorp compared to Glacier Bay, although this may simply reflect habitat differences. Sea urchin densities were high in Glacier Bay, while in Port Althorp urchins were virtually absent. Sea otters are now well established in limited areas of the lower portions of Glacier Bay. It is likely that distribution and numbers of sea otters will continue to increase in Glacier Bay in the near future. Glacier Bay supports large and diverse populations of clams that are largely unexploited by sea otters at present. It is predictable that the density and sizes of clam populations will decline in response to otter predation. This will result in fewer opportunities for human harvest, but will also trigger ecosystem level changes, as prey for other predators, such as octopus, sea stars, fishes, birds and mammals are modified. Sea otters will also modify benthic habitats through excavation of sediments required to extract burrowing infauna such as clams. Effects of sediment disturbance by foraging sea otters are not understood. Glacier Bay also supports large populations of other preferred sea otter prey, such as king ( Paralithodes sp. ), tanner ( Chionoecetes sp. ) and dungeness ( Cancer magister ) crabs and green sea urchins ( S. droebachiensis ). As the colonization of Park waters by sea otters continues, it is also likely that dramatic changes will occur in the species composition, abundance, and size class distribution of many components of the nearshore marine ecosystem. Many of the changes will occur as a direct result of predation by sea otters. Others will result from indirect or cascading effects of sea otter foraging, such as increased kelp production and modified prey availability for other nearshore predators. Without recognizing and quantifying the extent of change initiated by the colonization of Glacier Bay by sea otters, management of nearshore resources will be severely constrained for many decades.

Alaska↗

Ecology and conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chickens in sand shinnery oak prairies

Sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) prairies are unique ecosystems endemic to sandy soils of eastern New Mexico, northwestern Texas, and western Oklahoma; the historic and current distribution of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) overlaps these prairie systems. Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations in sand shinnery oak prairies of the Southern Great Plains have declined substantially since the late 1980s, most likely due to conversion of nesting and brood-rearing habitat to row-crop agriculture and extended periods of drought. In addition to threats universal throughout the species distribution, this population is susceptible to a changing climate in an area that is already representative of an extreme environment for ground-nesting birds. Recent studies of Lesser Prairie-Chicken ecology in sand shinnery oak prairies have expanded our knowledge on the ecology and management of the species, but a thorough review of the historic and current literature is lacking. In addition, current management guidelines exist for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in mixed grass and sand sagebrush prairies, but there are no comprehensive management guidelines for the species in sand shinnery oak prairies. This information is paramount given unique aspects of the vegetation community, relative ecosystem drivers, and environmental variation in sand shinnery oak prairie and the species’ current status as a proposed threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. Herein, we provide a thorough synthesis of literature pertaining to the life history, habitat requirements, habitat management, and population management for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in sand shinnery oak prairie, provide management guidelines and recommendations for the species in this ecoregion, and highlight current and future research needs. Within our objectives, we place emphasis on two recently completed long-term investigations into Lesser Prairie-Chicken ecology in sand shinnery oak prairie - a 10-year vegetation data set collected in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, 2001–2011 and a 6-year Lesser Prairie-Chicken data set collected in Roosevelt County, New Mexico and Cochran, Hockley, Terry, and Yoakum counties, Texas, 2006–2012.

Book chapter↗

Model-based evaluation of highly and low pathogenic avian influenza dynamics in wild birds

There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.

PLoS ONE↗

Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts

As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Two tickets to paradise: multiple dispersal events in the founding of hoary bat populations in Hawai'i

The Hawaiian islands are an extremely isolated oceanic archipelago, and their fauna has long served as models of dispersal in island biogeography. While molecular data have recently been applied to investigate the timing and origin of dispersal events for several animal groups including birds, insects, and snails, these questions have been largely unaddressed in Hawai'i's only native terrestrial mammal, the Hawaiian hoary bat, Lasiurus cinereus semotus . Here, we use molecular data to test the hypotheses that (1) Hawaiian L . c . semotus originated via dispersal from North American populations of L . c . cinereus rather than from South American L . c . villosissimus , and (2) modern Hawaiian populations were founded from a single dispersal event. Contrary to the latter hypothesis, our mitochondrial data support a biogeographic history of multiple, relatively recent dispersals of hoary bats from North America to the Hawaiian islands. Coalescent demographic analyses of multilocus data suggest that modern populations of Hawaiian hoary bats were founded no more than 10 kya. Our finding of multiple evolutionarily significant units in Hawai'i highlights information that should be useful for re-evaluation of the conservation status of hoary bats in Hawai'i.

PLoS ONE↗

Interseasonal movements of greater sage-grouse, migratory behavior, and an assessment of the core regions concept in Wyoming

Animals can require different habitat types throughout their annual cycles. When considering habitat prioritization, we need to explicitly consider habitat requirements throughout the annual cycle, particularly for species of conservation concern. Understanding annual habitat requirements begins with quantifying how far individuals move across landscapes between key life stages to access required habitats. We quantified individual interseasonal movements for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) using radio-telemetry spanning the majority of the species distribution in Wyoming. Sage-grouse are currently a candidate for listing under the United States Endangered Species Act and Wyoming is predicted to remain a stronghold for the species. Sage-grouse use distinct seasonal habitats throughout their annual cycle for breeding, brood rearing, and wintering. Average movement distances in Wyoming from nest sites to summer-late brood-rearing locations were 8.1 km (SE = 0.3 km; n = 828 individuals) and the average subsequent distances moved from summer sites to winter locations were 17.3 km (SE = 0.5 km; n = 607 individuals). Average nest-to-winter movements were 14.4 km (SE = 0.6 km; n = 434 individuals). We documented remarkable variation in the extent of movement distances both within and among sites across Wyoming, with some individuals remaining year-round in the same vicinity and others moving over 50 km between life stages. Our results suggest defining any of our populations as migratory or non-migratory is innappropriate as individual strategies vary widely. We compared movement distances of birds marked using Global Positioning System (GPS) and very high frequency (VHF) radio marking techniques and found no evidence that the heavier GPS radios limited movement. Furthermore, we examined the capacity of the sage-grouse core regions concept to capture seasonal locations. As expected, we found the core regions approach, which was developed based on lek data, was generally better at capturing the nesting locations than summer or winter locations. However, across Wyoming the sage-grouse breeding core regions still contained a relatively high percentage of summer and winter locations and seem to be a reasonable surrogate for non-breeding habitat when no other information exists. We suggest that conservation efforts for greater sage-grouse implicitly incorporate seasonal habitat needs because of high variation in the amount of overlap among breeding core regions and non-breeding habitat.

Wyoming↗

Genomically diverse carbapenem resistant Enterobacteriaceae from wild birds provide insight into global patterns of spatiotemporal dissemination

Carbapenem resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are a threat to public health globally, yet the role of the environment in the epidemiology of CRE remains elusive. Given that wild birds can acquire CRE, likely from foraging in anthropogenically impacted areas, and may aid in the maintenance and dissemination of CRE in the environment, a spatiotemporal comparison of isolates from different regions and timepoints may be useful for elucidating epidemiological information. Thus, we characterized the genomic diversity of CRE from fecal samples opportunistically collected from gulls ( Larus spp.) inhabiting Alaska (USA), Chile, Spain, Turkey, and Ukraine and from black kites ( Milvus migrans ) sampled in Pakistan and assessed evidence for spatiotemporal patterns of dissemination. Within and among sampling locations, a high diversity of carbapenemases was found, including Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC), New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase (NDM), oxacillinase (OXA), and Verona integron Metallo beta-lactamase (VIM). Although the majority of genomic comparisons among samples did not provide evidence for spatial dissemination, we did find strong evidence for dissemination among Alaska, Spain, and Turkey. We also found strong evidence for temporal dissemination among samples collected in Alaska and Pakistan, though the majority of CRE clones were transitory and were not repeatedly detected among locations where samples were collected longitudinally. Carbapenemase-producing hypervirulent K. pneumoniae was isolated from gulls in Spain and Ukraine and some isolates harbored antimicrobial resistance genes conferring resistance to up to 10 different antibiotic classes, including colistin. Our results are consistent with local acquisition of CRE by wild birds with spatial dissemination influenced by intermediary transmission routes, likely involving humans. Furthermore, our results support the premise that anthropogenically-associated wild birds may be good sentinels for understanding the burden of clinically-relevant antimicrobial resistance in the local human population.

Science of the Total Environment↗