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USGS2024

Identifying the forage base and critical forage taxa for Chesapeake waterbirds

To effectively maximize the conservation value of management plans intended to capture ecosystem-wide health, it is essential to obtain an understanding of emergent patterns in dietary dynamics spanning many species. Chesapeake Bay, USA, is a critical ecosystem used annually by a diverse assortment of waterbird species, including several of conservation concern. However, the ecosystem is threatened by many ecological pressures driven largely by the dense human population of the surrounding region. These issues necessitate proactive monitoring and management efforts to track the health of ecosystems like the Chesapeake Bay. Such monitoring efforts of population dynamics require adequate data on the connections between trophic levels to understand how changes to the forage base might influence higher trophic levels, such as these diverse avian predators. However, we have historically lacked standardized quantitative data drawing these connections at the community level, as well as the relative importance of these taxa in the diet of such predators. We collated existing quantitative data on avian dietary composition to construct a database on the diets of 58 waterbird species that make use of the Chesapeake Bay. From this database, we quantified the relative importance of forage taxa to the diet of each waterbird species. Such data can enable managers to develop a comprehensive suite of forage taxa indicators whose abundance and distributions can be monitored as a proxy for ecosystem health. It is our goal that this database be harnessed as a tool to enable conservation practitioners to prioritize indicator taxa for monitoring purposes, contributing towards conservation plans that best address the health of the ecosystem at large.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2014

Brood surveys and hunter observations used to predict gobbling activity wild turkeys in Mississippi

The Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks utilize data from turkey hunter observations and brood surveys from across the state to manage wild turkey Meleagris gallopavo populations. Since 1995, hunters have collected gobbling and jake observation data, while the Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks' personnel and cooperating wildlife managers of several natural resource agencies throughout the state have collected brood survey data. Both sources of data serve to forecast poult recruitment and gobbling activity. The objective of this study was to evaluate if these data can serve as a viable predictor of gobbling activity. We used three mixed models to investigate the relationship between the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior and the total number of poults per hens 2 y prior (model 1), number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting and the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior (model 2), the number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting and the total number poults per total hens observed 2 y prior (model 3) using data from 1995 to 2008 among five wild turkey management regions encompassing the state. We incorporated region as a random effect to account for spatial variation. We found the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior correlated with the total number of poults per total hens observed 2 y prior. We also found the number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting correlated with the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior. Additionally, we found that the total poults per total hens observed 2 y prior was correlated to the number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting. Our results show promise for using indices of gobbling activity, jake observations, and brood surveys to estimate gobbling activity.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2017

Lizard activity and abundance greater in burned habitat of a xeric montane forest

Restoring the natural or historical state of ecosystems is a common objective among resource managers, but determining whether desired system responses to management actions are occurring is often protracted and challenging. For wildlife, the integration of mechanistic habitat modeling with population monitoring may provide expedited measures of management effectiveness and improve understanding of how management actions succeed or fail to recover populations. Southern Appalachia is a region of high biodiversity that has undergone dramatic change as a result of human activities such as historic logging, exotic invasions, and alteration of disturbance regimes—including reduction in application of fire. Contemporary efforts to restore fire-maintained ecosystems within southern Appalachian forests require tools to assess the effects of fire management practices on individual animal fitness and relate them to corresponding influences on species abundance. Using automated sensing equipment, we investigated the effects of burned forests on reptile habitat suitability within the western portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. Specifically, we used microclimate measurements to model northern fence lizard Sceloporus undulatus hyacinthinus diurnal activity budgets in unburned and variable burn age (3–27-y) forest stands. We estimated northern fence lizard occurrence and abundance along transects through burned and unburned forests. Burned forest stands had microclimates that resulted in longer modeled daily activity periods under most conditions during summer. S. undulatus abundance was 4.75 times greater on burned stands compared to paired unburned stands, although the relationship between burn age and abundance was not well determined. Results suggest the more open habitat structure of burned areas within these xeric pine–oak forests may benefit S. undulatus .

Tennesee↗
USGS2018

Accounting for surveyor effort in large-scale monitoring programs

Accounting for errors in wildlife surveys is necessary for reliable status assessments and quantification of uncertainty in estimates of population size. We apply a hierarchical log-linear Poisson regression model that accounts for multiple sources of variability in count data collected for the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring Program during 2010–2014. In some large-scale monitoring programs (e.g., Christmas Bird Count) there are diminishing returns in numbers counted as survey effort increases; therefore, we also explore the need to account for variable survey duration as a proxy for effort. In general, we found a high degree of concordance between counts and effort-adjusted estimates of relative abundance from the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring Program ( x̄ difference = 0.02%; 0.25% SD). We suggest that the model-based adjustments were small because there is only a weak asymptotic relationship with effort and count. Whereas effort adjustments are reasonable and effective when applied to count data from plots of standardized area, such adjustments may not be necessary when the area of sample units is not standardized and surveyor effort increases with number of birds present. That is, large units require more effort only when there are many birds present. The general framework we implemented to evaluate effects of varying survey effort applies to a wide variety of wildlife monitoring efforts.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2014

Long-term monitoring of endangered Laysan ducks: Index validation and population estimates 1998–2012

Monitoring endangered wildlife is essential to assessing management or recovery objectives and learning about population status. We tested assumptions of a population index for endangered Laysan duck (or teal; Anas laysanensis ) monitored using mark–resight methods on Laysan Island, Hawai’i. We marked 723 Laysan ducks between 1998 and 2009 and identified seasonal surveys through 2012 that met accuracy and precision criteria for estimating population abundance. Our results provide a 15-y time series of seasonal population estimates at Laysan Island. We found differences in detection among seasons and how observed counts related to population estimates. The highest counts and the strongest relationship between count and population estimates occurred in autumn (September–November). The best autumn surveys yielded population abundance estimates that ranged from 674 (95% CI = 619–730) in 2003 to 339 (95% CI = 265–413) in 2012. A population decline of 42% was observed between 2010 and 2012 after consecutive storms and Japan’s To¯hoku earthquake-generated tsunami in 2011. Our results show positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates from the same date, and support the use of standardized bimonthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Laysan Island.

Hawai’i↗
USGS2011

Quantile equivalence to evaluate compliance with habitat management objectives

Equivalence estimated with linear quantile regression was used to evaluate compliance with habitat management objectives at Arapaho National Wildlife Refuge based on monitoring data collected in upland (5,781 ha; n = 511 transects) and riparian and meadow (2,856 ha, n = 389 transects) habitats from 2005 to 2008. Quantiles were used because the management objectives specified proportions of the habitat area that needed to comply with vegetation criteria. The linear model was used to obtain estimates that were averaged across 4 y. The equivalence testing framework allowed us to interpret confidence intervals for estimated proportions with respect to intervals of vegetative criteria (equivalence regions) in either a liberal, benefit-of-doubt or conservative, fail-safe approach associated with minimizing alternative risks. Simple Boolean conditional arguments were used to combine the quantile equivalence results for individual vegetation components into a joint statement for the multivariable management objectives. For example, management objective 2A required at least 809 ha of upland habitat with a shrub composition ≥0.70 sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), 20–30% canopy cover of sagebrush ≥25 cm in height, ≥20% canopy cover of grasses, and ≥10% canopy cover of forbs on average over 4 y. Shrub composition and canopy cover of grass each were readily met on >3,000 ha under either conservative or liberal interpretations of sampling variability. However, there were only 809–1,214 ha (conservative to liberal) with ≥10% forb canopy cover and 405–1,098 ha with 20–30% canopy cover of sagebrush ≥25 cm in height. Only 91–180 ha of uplands simultaneously met criteria for all four components, primarily because canopy cover of sagebrush and forbs was inversely related when considered at the spatial scale (30 m) of a sample transect. We demonstrate how the quantile equivalence analyses also can help refine the numerical specification of habitat objectives and explore specification of spatial scales for objectives with respect to sampling scales used to evaluate those objectives.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

Indicator-driven conservation planning across terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine ecosystems of the south Atlantic, USA

Systematic conservation planning, a widely used approach to identify priority lands and waters, uses efficient, defensible, and transparent methods aimed at conserving biodiversity and ecological systems. Limited financial resources and competing land uses can be major impediments to conservation; therefore, participation of diverse stakeholders in the planning process is advantageous to help address broad-scale threats and challenges of the 21st century. Although a broad extent is needed to identify core areas and corridors for fish and wildlife populations, a fine-scale resolution is needed to manage for multiple, interconnected ecosystems. Here, we developed a conservation plan using a systematic approach to promote landscape-level conservation within the extent of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Our objective was to identify the highest-ranked 30% of lands and waters within the South Atlantic deemed necessary to conserve ecological and cultural integrity for the 10 primary ecosystems of the southeastern United States. These environments varied from terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine. The planning process was driven by indicators of ecosystem integrity at a 4-ha resolution. We used the program Zonation and 28 indicators to optimize the identification of lands and waters to meet the stated objective. A novel part of our study was the prioritization of multiple ecosystems, and we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this approach. The evaluation of indicator representation within prioritizations was a useful method to show where improvements could be made; some indicators dictated hotspots, some had a limited extent and were well represented, and others had a limited effect. Overall, we demonstrate that a broad-scale (408,276 km 2 of terrestrial and 411,239 km 2 of marine environments) conservation plan can be realized at a fine-scale resolution, which will allow implementation of the regional plan at a local level relevant to decision making.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2021

How many Ciscoes are needed for stocking in the Laurentian Great Lakes?

Historically, Cisco Coregonus artedi and deepwater ciscoes Coregonus spp. were the most abundant and ecologically important fish species in the Laurentian Great Lakes, but anthropogenic influences caused nearly all populations to collapse by the 1970s. Fishery managers have begun exploring the feasibility of restoring populations throughout the basin, but questions regarding hatchery propagation and stocking remain. We used historical and contemporary stock-recruit parameters previously estimated for Ciscoes in Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior, with estimates of age-1 Cisco rearing habitat (broadly defined as total ha ≤ 80 m depth) and natural mortality, to estimate how many fry (5.5 months post-hatch), fall fingerling (7.5 months post-hatch), and age-1 (at least 12 months post-hatch) hatchery-reared Ciscoes are needed for stocking in the Great Lakes to mimic recruitment rates in Lake Superior, a lake that has undergone some recovery. Estimated stocking densities suggested that basin-wide stocking would require at least 0.641-billion fry, 0.469-billion fall fingerlings, or 0.343-billion age-1 fish for a simultaneous restoration effort targeting historically important Cisco spawning and rearing areas in Lakes Huron, Michigan, Erie, Ontario, and Saint Clair. Numbers required for basin-wide stocking were considerably greater than current or planned coregonine production capacity, thus simultaneous stocking in the Great Lakes is likely not feasible. Provided current habitat conditions do not preclude Cisco restoration, managers could maximize the effectiveness of available production capacity by concentrating stocking efforts in historically important spawning and rearing areas, similar to the current stocking effort in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. Other historically important Cisco spawning and rearing areas within each lake (listed in no particular order) include: (1) Thunder Bay in Lake Huron, (2) Green Bay in Lake Michigan, (3) the islands near Sandusky, Ohio, in western Lake Erie, and (4) the area near Hamilton, Ontario, and Bay of Quinte in Lake Ontario. Our study focused entirely on Ciscoes but may provide a framework for describing future stocking needs for deepwater ciscoes.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2014

Surveillance and monitoring of white-tailed deer for chronic wasting disease in the northeastern United States

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease that affects both wild and captive cervid populations. In the past 45 y, CWD has spread from northern Colorado to all bordering states, as well as the midwestern United States (Midwest) and northeastern United States (Northeast), Canada, and South Korea. Because CWD is a relatively new issue for wildlife management agencies in the Northeast, we surveyed a representative (e.g., cervid biologist, wildlife veterinarian) from 14 states to gain a better understanding of state-specific surveillance measures. Between 2002 and 2012, New York (37,093) and Pennsylvania (35,324) tested the greatest number of harvested white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in the Northeast. Additionally, the 14 states surveyed have tested 121,730 harvested deer, or approximately 15,216/y, since CWD was first detected in 2005. The most common tissues used by agencies in the Northeast for testing were retropharyngeal lymph nodes, which have been determined to be the most reliable in detecting CWD in cervids. Understanding CWD surveillance efforts at a regional scale can help to provide guidance for the development of new surveillance plans or the improvement of existing ones. Furthermore, collaborations among state and regional agencies in the Northeast may attempt to identify deficiencies in surveillance by state or subregion.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗
USGS2021

Conservation of northwestern and southwestern pond turtles: Threats, population size estimates, and population viability analysis

Accurate status assessments of long-lived, widely distributed taxa depend on the availability of long-term monitoring data from multiple populations. However, monitoring populations across large temporal and spatial scales is often beyond the scope of any one researcher or research group. Consequently, wildlife managers may be tasked with utilizing limited information from different sources to detect range-wide evidence of population declines and their causes. When assessments need to be made under such constraints, the research and management communities must determine how to extrapolate from variable population data to species-level inferences. Here, using three different approaches, we integrate and analyze data from the peer-reviewed literature and government agency reports to inform conservation for northwestern pond turtles (NPT) Actinemys marmorata and southwestern pond turtles (SPT) Actinemys pallida . Both NPT and SPT are long-lived freshwater turtles distributed along the west coast of the United States and Mexico. Conservation concerns exist for both species; however, SPT may face more severe threats and are thought to exist at lower densities throughout their range than NPT. For each species, we ranked the impacts of 13 potential threats, estimated population sizes, and modeled population viability with and without long-term droughts. Our results suggest that predation of hatchlings by invasive predators, such as American bullfrogs Lithobates catesbeianus and Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, is a high-ranking threat for NPT and SPT. Southwestern pond turtles may also face more severe impacts associated with natural disasters (droughts, wildfires, and floods) than do NPT. Population size estimates from trapping surveys indicate that SPT have smaller population sizes on average than do NPT ( P = 0.0003), suggesting they may be at greater risk of local extirpation. Population viability analysis models revealed that long-term droughts are a key environmental parameter; as the frequency of severe droughts increases with climate change, the likelihood of population recovery decreases, especially when census sizes are low. Given current population trends and vulnerability to natural disasters throughout their range, we suggest that conservation and recovery actions first focus on SPT to prevent further population declines.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2010

Woodpecker densities in the big woods of Arkansas

Sightings of the now-feared-extinct ivory-billed woodpecker Campephilus principalis in 2004 in the Big Woods of Arkansas initiated a series of studies on how to best manage habitat for this endangered species as well as all woodpeckers in the area. Previous work suggested that densities of other woodpeckers, particularly pileated Dryocopus pileatus and red-bellied Melanerpes carolinus woodpeckers, might be useful in characterizing habitat use by the ivory-billed woodpecker. We estimated densities of six woodpecker species in the Big Woods during the breeding seasons of 2006 and 2007 and also during the winter season of 2007. Our estimated densities were as high as or higher than previously published woodpecker density estimates for the Southeastern United States. Density estimates ranged from 9.1 to 161.3 individuals/km 2 across six woodpecker species. Our data suggest that the Big Woods of Arkansas is attractive to all woodpeckers using the region, including ivory-billed woodpeckers.

Arkansas↗
USGS2021

American Woodcock singing-ground survey: Comparison of four models for trend in population size

Wildlife biologists monitor the status and trends of American woodcock Scolopax minor populations in the eastern and central United States and Canada via a singing-ground survey, conducted just after sunset along roadsides in spring. Annual analyses of the survey produce estimates of trend and annual indexes of abundance for 25 states and provinces, management regions, and survey-wide. In recent years, researchers have used a log-linear hierarchical model that defines year effects as random effects in the context of a slope parameter (the S model) to model population change. Recently, researchers have proposed alternative models suitable for analysis of singing-ground survey data. Analysis of a similar roadside survey, the North American Breeding Bird Survey, has indicated that alternative models are preferable for almost all species analyzed in the Breeding Bird Survey. Here, we use leave-one-out cross-validation to compare model fit for the present singing-ground survey model to fits of three alternative models, including a model that describes population change as the difference in expected counts between successive years (the D model) and two models that include t -distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion effects (H models) as opposed to normally distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion. Leave-one-out cross-validation results indicate that the Bayesian predictive information criterion favored the D model, but a pairwise t -test indicated that the D model was not significantly better-fitting to singing-ground survey data than the S model. The H models are not preferable to the alternatives with normally distributed overdispersion. All models provided generally similar estimates of trend and annual indexes suggesting that, within this model set, choice of model will not lead to alternative conclusions regarding population change. However, as in Breeding Bird Survey analyses, we note a tendency for S model results to provide slightly more extreme estimates of trend relative to D models. We recommend use of the D model for future singing-ground survey analyses.

Eastern and Central United States and Canada↗
USGS2017

Behavioral responses of Pacific lamprey to alarm cues

Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ), an anadromous ectoparasite, faces several challenges during adult migration to spawning grounds. Developing methods to address these challenges is critical to the success of ongoing conservation efforts. The challenges are diverse, and include anthropogenic alterations to the ecosystem resulting in loss of habitat, impassable barriers such as dams, climate change impacts, and altered predator fields. We conducted a behavioral study to understand how adult migrating Pacific lamprey respond to potential alarm cues: White Sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ), human saliva, decayed Pacific lamprey, and river otter ( Lontra canadensis ). Research has shown that some species of lamprey can be guided to a location using odors and similar cues may be useful as a management tool for Pacific lamprey. Experiments were conducted over 2 nights and measured the number of entries (count) and duration of time spent (occupancy) by adult lamprey in each arm of a two-choice maze. During the first night, no odor was added to test for selection bias between arms. During the second night odor was added to one arm of the maze. Contrary to expectations, lamprey were significantly attracted to the river otter odor in both count and occupancy. No significant differences were found in the response of lamprey to the other three odors. Results from this study indicate that Pacific lamprey do respond to some odors; however, additional tests are necessary to better identify the types of odors and concentrations that elicit a repeatable response.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of flooded seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands in San Joaquin and Tulare Basins during fall-winter. The main objective of this research is to provide decision-support for achieving waterbird conservation goals in the valley and to inform CVJV's regional conservation planning.

California↗
USGS2018

Variation in age ratio of midcontinent greater white-fronted geese during fall migration

Annual productivity is an important parameter for the management of waterfowl populations. Fall age ratio (juveniles:total birds) is an index of productivity of the preceding breeding season. However, differences in the timing of migration between family groups and nonbreeding birds may bias age-ratio estimates. We examined temporal variation in age ratios of midcontinent greater white-fronted geese Anser albifrons frontalis from interior and northwestern Alaska at a northern autumn staging area near Delta Junction, Alaska. Photographic sampling conducted near Delta Junction resulted in an annual age ratio of 0.388 ± 0.004 (mean ± SE) in 2010 and 0.390 ± 0.001 in 2011. Our study demonstrated temporal variation in age ratios over the duration of the migration period during August and September. We recommend that sampling be conducted for 3-d periods at the beginning, middle, and end of the migration period to account for temporal variation in migration of family groups.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2018

Is barotrauma an important factor in the discard mortality of Yellow Perch?

In physoclistous fishes, barotrauma caused by rapid decompression during capture may be an important source of fishing mortality that is unquantified for some fisheries. We developed a predictive logistic model for barotrauma incidence in Yellow Perch Perca flavescens and applied this model to Ohio's recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie where fisheries managers implicitly consider discard mortality to be negligible in current stock assessment. As expected, capture depth explained most of the variation in incidence, with comparatively small effects of season, sex, and size categories. Measurements of whole body and gonad density provided limited explanation for the categorical effects. Both fisheries spanned a range of depths (7.6 to 16.8 m) that corresponded to a broad range of barotrauma incidence (13 to 74%). Using a recent example, we estimated that additional fishing mortality due to barotrauma in discards was approximately six-fold higher in the commercial than recreational fishery. Overall, this additional mortality was <1% of lake-wide population size estimates. Thus, the assumption that all discarded Yellow Perch survive is unlikely to result in a detectable bias in population estimates. One caveat is that we still do not understand how strong year-classes might influence discard mortality via increased discard rate and barotrauma incidence for small fish.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2019

Activity patterns of bats during the fall and spring along ridgelines in the central Appalachians

Many central Appalachian ridges offer high wind potential, making them attractive to future wind-energy development. Understanding seasonal and hourly activity patterns of migratory bat species may help to reduce fatalities at wind-energy facilities and provide guidance for the development of best management practices for bats. To examine hourly migratory bat activity patterns in the fall and spring in Virginia in an exploratory fashion with a suite of general temporal, environmental, and weather variables, we acoustically monitored bat activity on five ridgelines and side slopes from early September through mid-November 2015 and 2016 and from early March through late April 2016 and 2017. On ridges, bat activity decreased through the autumn sample period, but was more variable through the spring sample period. In autumn, migratory bat activity had largely ceased by mid-November. Activity patterns were species specific in both autumn and spring sample periods. Generally, migratory bat activity was negatively associated with hourly wind speeds but positively associated with ambient temperatures. These data provide further evidence that operational mitigation strategies at wind-energy facilities could help protect migratory bat species in the Appalachians; substantially slowing or locking wind turbine blade spin during periods of low wind speeds, often below where electricity is generated, and warm ambient temperatures may minimize mortality during periods of high bat activity.

Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2022

Comparison of indices to infer population dynamics of black brant

To aid managers in assessing status of Pacific black brant Branta bernicla nigricans (hereafter brant), I examined pre-existing long-term data series from summer, fall staging, and wintering areas to infer overall population processes and assessed the utility of the various data sources. Variation in demographic parameters measured in subarctic and Arctic locations suggests some form of metapopulation structure likely exists for brant. I used serial autocorrelation coefficients to assess the ability of various indices to track population processes. Based on this approach, the Lincoln–Petersen estimator and the fall aerial survey estimate partitioned using age ratios of staging brant at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, appear to be the best indicators. However, these two indexes show different trends for the overall brant population. The Lincoln–Petersen estimates showed biologically implausible changes in size among sequential years, whereas the fall Izembek index did not. Annual estimates of survival and productivity fit the patterns of annual variation in the fall Izembek index better than the Lincoln–Petersen estimates. I conclude that the fall age–partitioned Izembek Lagoon index appears to be the best for tracking population processes in brant.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗