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Proceedings of a workshop on American Eel passage technologies

Recent concerns regarding a decline in recruitment of American eels ( Anguilla rostrata ) have prompted efforts to restore this species to historic habitats by providing passage for both upstream migrant juveniles and downstream migrant adults at riverine barriers, including low-head and hydroelectric dams (Castonguay et al. 1994, Haro et al. 2000). These efforts include development of management plans and stock assessment reviews in both the US and Canada (COSEWIC 2006, Canadian Eel Working Group 2009, DFO 2010, MacGregor et al. 2010, ASMFC 2000, ASMFC 2006, ASMFC 2008, Williams and Threader 2007), which target improvement of upstream and downstream passage for eels, as well as identification and prioritization of research needs for development of new and more effective passage technologies for American eels. Traditional upstream fish passage structures, such as fishways and fish lifts, are often ineffective passing juvenile eels, and specialized passage structures for this species are needed. Although designs for such passage structures are available and diverse (Knights and White 1998, Porcher 2002, FAO/DVWK 2002, Solomon and Beach 2004a,b, Environment Agency UK 2011), many biologists, managers, and engineers are unfamiliar with eel pass design and operation, or unaware of the technical options available for upstream eel passage, Better coordination is needed to account for eel passage requirements during restoration efforts for other diadromous fish species. Also, appropriately siting eel passes at hydropower projects is critical, and siting can be difficult and complex due to physical restrictions in access to points of natural concentrations of eels, dynamic hydraulics of tailrace areas, and presence of significant competing flows from turbine outfalls or spill. As a result, some constructed eel passes are sited poorly and may pass only a fraction of the number of eels attempting to pass the barrier. When sited and constructed appropriately, however, eel passes can effectively pass thousands of individuals in a season (Appendix D). technologies for preventing impingement and entrainment mortality and injury of downstream migrant eels at hydropower projects are not well developed. Traditional downstream fish passage mitigative techniques originally developed for salmonids and other species are frequently ineffective passing eels (Richkus and Dixon 2003, EPRI 2001, Bruijs and Durif 2009). Large hydropower projects, with high project flows or intake openings that cannot be fitted with racks or screens with openings small enough to exclude eels, pose significant passage problems for this species, and turbine impingement and entrainment mortality of eels can be as high as 100%. Spill mortality and injury may also be significant for eels, given their tendency to move during high flow events when projects typically spill large amounts of flow. Delays in migration of eels that have difficulty locating and utilizing bypass entrances can also be significant. Therefore, downstream passage technologies are at a much more nebulous state of development than upstream passage technologies, and require further evaluation and improvement before rigorous design guidelines can be established. There have been few studies conducted to evaluate effectiveness of current mitigative measures for both upstream and downstream passage of eels. Research is needed to determine eel migratory timing, behavior, and appropriate mitigation technologies for specific sites and eel life history stages. Both upstream and downstream eel passage structures can be difficult to evaluate in terms of performance, and examples of how evaluation and monitoring can be accomplished were reviewed at the workshop.

Report↗

Prehistoric Alaska: The land

Many Alaskans know the dynamic nature of Alaska’s landscape firsthand. The 1964 earthquake, the 1989 eruption of Mount Redoubt volcano, the frequent earthquakes in the Aleutians and the ever-shifting meanders of the Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers remind them of constant changes to the land. These changes are part of the continuing story of the geologic growth and development of Alaska during hundreds of millions of years. By geologic time, Alaska has only recently come into existence and the dynamic processes that formed it continue to affect it. The landscape we see today has been shaped by glacier and stream erosion or their indirect effects, and to a lesser extent by volcanoes. Most prominently, if less obviously, Alaska has been built by slow movements of the Earth’s crust we call tectonic or mountain-building. During 5 billion years of geologic time, the Earth’s crust has repeatedly broken apart into plates. These plates have recombined, and have shifted positions relative to each other, to the Earth’s rotational axis and to the equator. Large parts of the Earth’s crust, including Alaska, have been built and destroyed by tectonic forces. Alaska is a collage of transported and locally formed fragments of crusts As erosion and deposition reshape the land surface, climatic changes, brought on partly by changing ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, alter the location and extent of tropical, temperate and arctic environments. We need to understand the results of these processes as they acted upon Alaska to understand the formation of Alaska. Rocks can provide hints of previous environments because they contain traces of ocean floor and lost lands, bits and pieces of ancient history.

Alaska↗

Quantifying the demographic cost of human-related mortality to a raptor population

Raptors are exposed to a wide variety of human-related mortality agents, and yet population-level effects are rarely quantified. Doing so requires modeling vital rates in the context of species life-history, behavior, and population dynamics theory. In this paper, we explore the details of such an analysis by focusing on the demography of a resident, tree-nesting population of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) in the vicinity of an extensive (142 km 2 ) windfarm in California. During 1994–2000, we tracked the fates of >250 radio-marked individuals of four life-stages and conducted five annual surveys of territory occupancy and reproduction. Collisions with wind turbines accounted for 41% of 88 uncensored fatalities, most of which were subadults and nonbreeding adults (floaters). A consistent overall male preponderance in the population meant that females were the limiting sex in this territorial, monogamous species. Estimates of potential population growth rate and associated variance indicated a stable breeding population, but one for which any further decrease in vital rates would require immigrant floaters to fill territory vacancies. Occupancy surveys 5 and 13 years later (2005 and 2013) showed that the nesting population remained intact, and no upward trend was apparent in the proportion of subadult eagles as pair members, a condition that would have suggested a deficit of adult replacements. However, the number of golden eagle pairs required to support windfarm mortality was large. We estimated that the entire annual reproductive output of 216–255 breeding pairs would have been necessary to support published estimates of 55–65 turbine blade-strike fatalities per year. Although the vital rates forming the basis for these calculations may have changed since the data were collected, our approach should be useful for gaining a clearer understanding of how anthropogenic mortality affects the health of raptor populations, particularly those species with delayed maturity and naturally low reproductive rates.

PLoS ONE↗

Are wolves saving Yellowstone's aspen? A landscape-level test of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade

Behaviorally mediated trophic cascades (BMTCs) occur when the fear of predation among herbivores enhances plant productivity. Based primarily on systems involving small-bodied predators, BMTCs have been proposed as both strong and ubiquitous in natural ecosystems. Recently, however, synthetic work has suggested that the existence of BMTCs may be mediated by predator hunting mode, whereby passive (sit-and-wait) predators have much stronger effects than active (coursing) predators. One BMTC that has been proposed for a wide-ranging active predator system involves the reintroduction of wolves ( Canis lupus ) to Yellowstone National Park, USA, which is thought to be leading to a recovery of trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) by causing elk ( Cervus elaphus ) to avoid foraging in risky areas. Although this BMTC has been generally accepted and highly popularized, it has never been adequately tested. We assessed whether wolves influence aspen by obtaining detailed demographic data on aspen stands using tree rings and by monitoring browsing levels in experimental elk exclosures arrayed across a gradient of predation risk for three years. Our study demonstrates that the historical failure of aspen to regenerate varied widely among stands (last recruitment year ranged from 1892 to 1956), and our data do not indicate an abrupt cessation of recruitment. This pattern of recruitment failure appears more consistent with a gradual increase in elk numbers rather than a rapid behavioral shift in elk foraging following wolf extirpation. In addition, our estimates of relative survivorship of young browsable aspen indicate that aspen are not currently recovering in Yellowstone, even in the presence of a large wolf population. Finally, in an experimental test of the BMTC hypothesis we found that the impacts of elk browsing on aspen demography are not diminished in sites where elk are at higher risk of predation by wolves. These findings suggest the need to further evaluate how trophic cascades are mediated by predator–prey life history and ecological context.

Yellowstone↗

Water resources of the Lake Traverse Reservation, South and North Dakota, and Roberts County, South Dakota

In 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sisseton-Wahpeton Sioux Tribe; Roberts County; and the South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Geological Survey Program, began a 6-year investigation to describe and quantify the water resources of the area within the 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Reservation and adjacent parts of Roberts County. Roberts County is located in extreme northeastern South Dakota, and the 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Reservation encompasses much of Roberts County and parts of Marshall, Day, Codington, and Grant Counties in South Dakota and parts of Richland and Sargent Counties in southeast North Dakota. This report includes descriptions of the quantity, quality, and availability of surface and ground water, the extent of the major glacial and bedrock aquifers and named outwash groups, and surface- and ground-water uses within the 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Reservation and adjacent parts of Roberts County. The surface-water resources within the 1867 boundary of the Lake Traverse Reservation and adjacent parts of Roberts County include rivers, streams, lakes, and wetlands. The Wild Rice and Bois de Sioux Rivers are tributaries of the Red River within the Souris-Red-Rainy River Basin; the Little Minnesota, Jorgenson, and North Fork Whetstone Rivers are tributaries of the Minnesota River within the Upper Mississippi River Basin, and the James and Big Sioux Rivers are tributaries within the Missouri River Basin. Several of the larger lakes within the study area have been developed for recreation, while many of the smaller lakes and wetlands are used for livestock watering or as wildlife production areas. Statistical summaries are presented for the water-quality data of six selected streams within the study area, and the dominant chemical species are listed for 17 selected lakes within the study area. The glacial history of the study area has led to a rather complex system of glacial aquifers. The boundaries of 11 aquifers and 6 named outwash groups were delineated based on hydrogeologic cross sections, water levels, and water-quality similarities/dissimilarities. The glacial aquifers include Coteau Lakes system, Big Sioux, Alta-mont, Revillo, James, Veblen system, Spiritwood, Hankinson, Rosholt, Milnor Channel, and Fairmount; the bedrock aquifer included in this report is the Dakota. Named outwash groups include the Prairie Coteau, Lonesome Lake, Marday, Eden, Roslyn, and Wilmot. A summary of the character-istics of each of the major aquifers and outwash groups and a summary of selected chemical analyses for each aquifer and outwash group are presented. All aquifers and outwash groups in the study area have either moderately hard or very hard water and are considered fresh to slightly saline. One or more water samples from some of the aquifers and outwash groups have a constituent that was above the recommended or mandatory limit for drinking water. Most aquifers and outwash groups have dissolved solids and sulfate contents above the recommended levels of 500 and 250 mg/L (milligrams per liter), respectively. The Dakota aquifer was the only one to have a mean chloride concentration above the recommended level of 250 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations greater than the mandatory limit of 10 mg/L were found in the Big Sioux aquifer and the Coteau Lakes and Veblen aquifer systems. Concentrations of arsenic greater than 10 ?g/L (micrograms per liter) were found in the Coteau Lakes and Veblen aquifer systems, and in the Rosholt and Fairmount aquifers. Municipalities and rural water systems currently provide most of the water used in the study area-nearly all of it from ground-water sources. Surface-water use is limited to livestock watering. About 55 percent of the total water used in Roberts County is for domestic purposes, with most domestic users served by a public supply system. Irrigation accounts for about 10 percent of the total water used. All

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Applying radar technology to migratory bird conservation and management: Strengthening and expanding a collaborative

Executive Summary Understanding the factors affecting migratory bird and bat populations during all three phases of their life cycle—breeding, nonbreeding, and migration—is critical to species conservation planning. This includes the need for information about these species’ responses to natural challenges, as well as information about the effects of human activities and structures. Habitats and other resources critical to migrants during passage and stopover are being destroyed, degraded, and threatened by human activities. Birds and bats are also uniquely susceptible to human use of the airspace. Wind turbines, communication and power transmission towers, and other tall structures, known to cause bird and bat mortality, are being erected or proposed in increasing numbers across the country. In addition, the potential for bird/aircraft collisions poses human safety threats. Management and regulatory agencies, conservation organizations, and industry currently lack the information they need to meet their missions and statutory responsibilities. The biological data available from various radar technologies offer a unique opportunity to learn more about the spatiotemporal distribution patterns, flight characteristics, and habitat use of “aero-fauna.” Recognizing the opportunities presented by radar technologies, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and university partners collaborated first on individual projects and then in a broader, informal “collaborative” to coordinate their radar-related research and work together to develop the suite of products needed for conservation of birds and bats. Having produced two summary documents (Sojda and others, 2005; Ruth and others, 2005), the next objective was to convene a workshop for researchers, management and regulatory agencies, and other interested parties. The focus of this initial workshop was on strengthening the existing USGS-USFWS-university partnership and expanding the “collaborative” to include new Federal agency partners. The subject matter was centered on discussing available technologies, appropriate applications, management-related needs, and ways to strengthen collaborative research and conservation efforts. The workshop opened with presentations about the history of the “radar collaborative,” a description of the workshop objectives and focuses, and a summary of resource management and regulatory needs. Scientific presentations describing current research projects or subjects followed, given by USGS scientists, as well as scientists from other Federal agencies, academia, conservation and ornithological organizations, and a private contracting firm. Presenters addressed a wide variety of management issues including siting of wind-power facilities, bird/aircraft collisions, effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita on bird migration, bird use of Conservation Reserve Program land, defining bird migration patterns at a broad regional scale, and associating migrant birds with their stopover habitats. Presentations described a variety of radar technologies including NEXRAD weather surveillance radar, modified mobile marine radar, military tracking radar, pencil beam radar, and dual polarization radar, as well as complementary techniques and analysis methods such as acoustic monitoring, thermal imaging, artificial intelligence, and individual-based modeling. Key issues, themes, and questions identified during the open discussions that followed fell into five main categories: (1) agency needs and challenges; (2) radar technology and applications—technical questions and issues; (3) tools and resources for managers and researchers; (4) standardization of protocols; and (5) collaborative opportunities. Participants identified the following management, regulatory, or business issues facing them which may be addressed with radar technologies: tall structures; wind turbines; identification and protection of key habitats; assessment of management activities; and bird/aircraft strikes. Participants frequently expressed the need for specific information about which radar technologies are best used for answering particular questions. User groups emphasized the importance of clear, defensible scientific information on which they can base their activities. In turn, researchers emphasized their need for clearly defined, specific questions from managers so that they can design and conduct the required research. Discussions about technical issues requiring further research and collaboration included target identity, ground-truthing, linking migrants to habitat, and standardized protocols for applied research. Workshop participants identified and endorsed a series of seven action items that would promote collaboration and begin to address key issues identified at the workshop: Action Item #1 : Establish a working subgroup to address large-scale surveillance radar standardization issues. Action Item #2 : Establish a working subgroup to address small-scale radar standardization issues. Action Item #3 : Bring management and regulatory agencies together to identify the three most important information needs for each key management issue relating to radar technologies. Action Item #4 : Develop Fact Sheet(s) to provide information about radar technology applications to migratory bird and bat conservation issues. Action Item #5 : Create a “radar collaborative” Website to provide information about radar biology applications, contacts, publications, and so forth. Action Item #6 : Formalize and expand the USGS-USFWS “radar collaborative.” Action Item #7 : Advance basic research, such as target identity and validation, which will support and improve our abilities to apply radar technologies to conservation objectives. There was considerable interest in expanding the “radar collaborative” to include those agencies, organizations, and industries represented at the workshop. It was felt that the publication of the workshop proceedings, implementation of action items, and additional future meetings or workshops will be crucial in strengthening the “radar collaborative” effort and promoting the use of these valuable technologies for conserving migratory species.

Open-File Report↗

Baseline water quality of an area undergoing shale-gas development in the Muskingum River watershed, Ohio, 2015–16

In 2015–16, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District, led a study to assess baseline (2015–16) surface-water quality in six lake drainage basins within the Muskingum River watershed that are in the early years of shale-gas development. In 2015, 9 of the 10 most active counties in Ohio for oil and gas development were wholly or partially within the Muskingum River watershed. In addition to shale gas development, the area has a history of conventional oil and gas development and coal mining. In all, 30 surface-water sites were sampled: 20 in tributaries flowing to the lakes, 4 in lakes themselves, and 6 downstream of the lakes. At each of the 30 sites, 6 samples were collected to characterize surface-water chemistry throughout a range of hydrologic conditions. The sampling generally occurred during low flows (periods of greater groundwater contribution) rather than during runoff events (periods of high stream stage). Trilinear diagrams of major ion chemistry revealed three main types of water in the study area―sulfate-dominated waters, bicarbonate-dominated waters, and waters with mixed bicarbonate and chloride anions. Most sites produced samples of bicarbonate-dominated water, and 11 sites produced samples with sulfate-type waters. Mixed bicarbonate and chloride waters were found in samples from two of the six lake drainage basins studied. The baseline (2015–16) assessment of surface-water quality in the study area indicated that few water-chemistry constituents and properties occurred at concentrations or levels that would adversely affect aquatic organisms. Chemical-specific, aquatic life use criteria were not met in only three instances: two were for total dissolved solids at sites likely impacted by coal mining in their drainage basins (hereafter referred to as “mine-impacted sites”), and one was for dissolved oxygen. Mine drainage from historical coal mining in the region likely affected the quality of about one-third of the streams sampled. To simplify interpretation of water-chemistry results, 11 sites with sulfate-type water were identified as mine-impacted sites based on water-quality criteria established by Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Division of Mineral Resources Management, and separated out for subsequent statistical analysis. Concentrations or levels of bicarbonate, boron, calcium, carbonate, total dissolved solids, fluoride, magnesium, lithium, pH, potassium, sodium, specific conductance, strontium, sulfate, and suspended sediment in water were higher (significance level of 0.05) at mine-impacted stream sites than at non-mine-impacted stream sites. An accidental release of oil- and gas-related brines could increase salinity (sodium and chloride), the concentration of total dissolved solids in shallow groundwater and streams, and specific conductance. For this study, chloride concentrations in the study area ranged from 2.12 to 76.1 milligrams per liter. Sources of chloride in water samples were evaluated using binary mixing curves and ratios of chloride to bromide. These ratios indicated that 13 samples from 3 sites in the drainage basin that contained the highest density of conventional oil and gas wells in the study, as well as 4 samples collected from other drainage basins, likely contained a component of brine. Concentrations or levels of barium, bromide, chloride, iron, lithium, manganese, and sodium were significantly higher (alpha = 0.05) in samples with a component of brine than in samples without a component of brine. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX), compounds that occur naturally in crude oil, made up 24 of the 45 detections (53 percent) of volatile organic compounds in the study area. The BTEX detections were not associated with sites containing a component of brine. The only volatile organic compound detected in any of the 17 samples that contained a component of brine was acetone, detected in 3 (18 percent) of these samples and in 11 percent of samples not containing a component of brine. Considering that BTEX are gasoline hydrocarbons and that most of the detections occurred during warmer months in and around the lakes, the BTEX detections likely are associated with increases in outdoor activities such as automobile and boating traffic. Radium-226 and radium-228 were included in the list of analytes for this study because production water from shale-gas drilling can contain these naturally occurring radioactive materials. Concentrations of radium-226 exceeded background levels in only two surface-water samples. Concentrations of radium-228 exceeded background levels in one surface-water sample. A brine signature potentially indicative of oil and gas contamination was detected in samples collected at two sites that contained active or plugged waste injection wells, or both. Results from the study indicated significant differences in the median concentrations of bromide, chloride, lithium, manganese, sodium, and total dissolved nitrogen between sites with and without injection wells in their drainage areas. Median concentrations of bromide, chloride, lithium, and sodium, which are common oil- and gas-related contaminants, were higher at sites with injection wells in their drainage areas compared to sites without injection wells. Historical (1960s, 1970s, and 1980s) chloride concentrations and streamflow data at or near five of the six sampling sites downstream from each lake dam were compared to current (2015–16) values. An analysis of covariance was done to test the effects of streamflow, time (decade), and the combined effects (cross product) of streamflow and time on chloride concentrations. Those analyses indicated that streamflow was not significant in explaining the variation in chloride concentration, likely because streamflow in those locations is controlled by dam operations; therefore, association between runoff-generating events and streamflow is less direct than in unregulated streams. From the 1980s to the study period (2015–16), data for three of the five lakes indicated an increase in chloride concentrations. The comparison of historical and current (2015–16) study data from samples collected at another lake indicated that chloride concentrations increased from the 1960s to the 1970s, but concentrations in the 1970s and 2015–16 were similar even though 13 samples from this lake drainage basin were classified as having a component of brine. Median chloride concentrations for the fifth lake, however, seemed to decrease from the 1980s to 2015–16.

Ohio↗

Punctuated sediment discharge during early Pliocene birth of the Colorado River: Evidence from regional stratigraphy, sedimentology, and paleontology

The Colorado River in the southwestern U.S. provides an excellent natural laboratory for studying the origins of a continent-scale river system, because deposits that formed prior to and during river initiation are well exposed in the lower river valley and nearby basinal sink. This paper presents a synthesis of regional stratigraphy, sedimentology, and micropaleontology from the southern Bouse Formation and similar-age deposits in the western Salton Trough, which we use to interpret processes that controlled the birth and early evolution of the Colorado River. The southern Bouse Formation is divided into three laterally persistent members: basal carbonate, siliciclastic, and upper bioclastic members. Basal carbonate accumulated in a tide-dominated marine embayment during a rise of relative sea level between ~ 6.3 and 5.4 Ma, prior to arrival of the Colorado River. The transition to green claystone records initial rapid influx of river water and its distal clay wash load into the subtidal marine embayment at ~ 5.4–5.3 Ma. This was followed by rapid southward progradation of the Colorado River delta, establishment of the earliest through-flowing river, and deposition of river-derived turbidites in the western Salton Trough (Wind Caves paleocanyon) between ~ 5.3 and 5.1 Ma. Early delta progradation was followed by regional shut-down of river sand output between ~ 5.1 and 4.8 Ma that resulted in deposition of marine clay in the Salton Trough, retreat of the delta, and re-flooding of the lower river valley by shallow marine water that deposited the Bouse upper bioclastic member. Resumption of sediment discharge at ~ 4.8 Ma drove massive progradation of fluvial-deltaic deposits back down the river valley into the northern Gulf and Salton Trough. These results provide evidence for a discontinuous, start-stop-start history of sand output during initiation of the Colorado River that is not predicted by existing models for this system. The underlying controls on punctuated sediment discharge are assessed by comparing the depositional chronology to the record of global sea-level change. The lower Colorado River Valley and Salton Trough experienced marine transgression during a gradual fall in global sea level between ~ 6.3 and 5.5 Ma, implicating tectonic subsidence as the main driver of latest Miocene relative sea-level rise. A major fall of global sea level at 5.3 Ma outpaced subsidence and drove regional delta progradation, earliest flushing of Colorado River sand into the northern Gulf of California, and erosion of Bouse basal carbonate and siliciclastic members. The lower Colorado River valley was re-flooded by shallow marine waters during smaller changes in global sea level ~ 5.1–4.8 Ma, after the river first ran through it, which requires a mechanism to stop delivery of sand to the lower river valley. We propose that tectonically controlled subsidence along the lower Colorado River, upstream of the southern Bouse study area, temporarily trapped sediment and stopped delivery of sand to the lower river valley and northern Gulf of California for ~ 200–300 kyr. Massive progradation of the fluvial-deltaic system back down the river valley into the Salton Trough starting ~ 4.8–4.5 Ma apparently was driven by a huge increase in sediment discharge that overwhelmed the sediment-storage capacity of sub-basins along the lower river corridor and established the fully integrated river channel network.

Colorado River↗

Stratification based on reproductive state reveals contrasting patterns of age-related variation in demographic parameters in the kittiwake

Heterogeneity in individual quality can be a major obstacle when interpreting age-specific variation in life-history traits. Heterogeneity is likely to lead to within-generation selection, and patterns observed at the population level may result from the combination of hidden patterns specific to subpopulations. Population-level patterns are not relevant to hypotheses concerning the evolution of age-specific reproductive strategies if they differ from patterns at the individual level. We addressed the influence of age and a variable used as a surrogate of quality (yearly reproductive state) on survival and breeding probability in the kittiwake. We found evidence of an effect of age and quality on both demographic parameters. Patterns observed in breeders are consistent with the selection hypothesis, which predicts age-related increases in survival and traits positively correlated with survival. Our results also reveal unexpected age effects specific to subgroups: the influence of age on survival and future breeding probability is not the same in nonbreeders and breeders. These patterns are observed in higher-quality breeding habitats, where the influence of extrinsic factors on breeding state is the weakest. Moreover, there is slight evidence of an influence of sex on breeding probability (not on survival), but the same overall pattern is observed in both sexes. Our results support the hypothesis that age-related variation in demographic parameters observed at the population level is partly shaped by heterogeneity among individuals. They also suggest processes specific to subpopulations. Recent theoreticaI developments lay emphasis on integration of sources of heterogeneity in optimization models to account for apparently 'sub-optimal' empirical patterns. Incorporation of sources of heterogeneity is also the key to investigation of age-related reproductive strategies in heterogeneous populations. Thwarting 'heterogeneity's ruses' has become a major challenge: for detecting and understanding natural processes, and a constructive confrontation between empirical and theoretical studies.

Brittany↗

Reconciliation of stress and structural histories of the Tharsis region of Mars

We present a new compilation of the structural and stratigraphic evolution of the Tharsis region of Mars that incorporates recent advances in understanding its stratigraphy, and we introduce a lithospheric deformation model that can account for the observations. The first period in the formation of Tharsis occurred in Late Noachian/Early Hesperian time with the deposition of volcanic plains materials throughout the surrounding highlands (e.g., Lunae Planum) and on the Tharsis rise (which includes the giant volcanoes and surrounding, elevated lava fields). Extensive radial normal faulting occurred on the rise, locally extending outward at Valles Marineris and Tempe Terra, and concentric wrinkle ridges formed along the edge of the rise. This regional deformation appears to have been modulated by a global compressional stress field due to rapid planetary cooling and contraction. The second period occurred during the Late Hesperian/Amazonian with Tharsis volcanism centered on the rise and radial extensional deformation that extended from the center of the rise for thousands of kilometers. We propose a model in which the lithosphere beneath Tharsis consists of a thin elastic crustal cap on the rise that is mechanically detached from the strong upper mantle by a volcanically thickened, hot, weak lower crust. These layers merge into a single cooler, strong lithospheric layer around the edges of the rise. This model is capable of generating large extensional hoop stresses throughout much of the western hemisphere, in agreement with observations. The tectonic interpretation of the stresses predicted by this model requires the reconciliation of extensional strain within narrow grabens and compressional strain within wrinkle ridges with (1) processes in the deeper lithosphere, (2) the sparsity of strike-slip faults, and (3) other global or locally important stress fields. Stresses predicted by global models affect the entire thickness of the lithosphere, and they can be reconciled with narrow, closely spaced grabens that accommodate large amounts of extensional strain in the upper few kilometers of the lithosphere if the grabens are underlain and kinematically linked with dikes or other tension cracks, such as hydrofractures. Deeper levels of the lithosphere can accommodate this strain by elastic expansion if grabens are spaced far apart (many tens to hundreds of kilometers). Mechanical considerations suggest that deformation on faults beneath wrinkle ridges could extend through a significant thickness of the brittle crust. A number of factors, including stresses generated by the addition of overburden, intrusion of dikes, weakness of geologic materials under extension, and the laterally constrained nature of a single lithospheric plate, may have inhibited the formation of strike-slip faults on Mars. Stresses generated from the removal of overburden could have augmented planetwide wrinkle ridge formation during the Late Noachian/Early Hesperian and in Kasei Valles and western Chryse Planitia during the Early Amazonian. The nonuniform distribution of tectonic features around Tharsis can be understood in terms of the concentration of regional stresses and strain near weaker volcanotectonic centers.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Lake sturgeon response to a spawning reef constructed in the Detroit river

Prior to the First World War, the bi-national Detroit River provided vast areas of functional fish spawning and nursery habitat. However, ongoing conflicting human uses of these waters for activities such as waste disposal, water withdrawals, shoreline development, shipping, recreation, and fishing have altered many of the chemical, physical, and biological processes of the Detroit River. Of particular interest and concern to resource managers and stakeholders is the significant loss and impairment of fish spawning and nursery habitat that led to the decline in abundance of most fish species using this ecosystem. Lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) populations for example, were nearly extirpated by the middle of the 20th century, leaving only a small fraction of their former population. Fisheries managers recognized that the loss of suitable fish spawning habitat is a limiting factor in lake sturgeon population rehabilitation in the Detroit River. In efforts to remediate this beneficial water use impairment, a reef consisting of a mixture of natural rock and limestone was constructed at the upstream end of Fighting Island in 2008. This paper focuses on the response by lake sturgeon to the different replicates of suitable natural materials used to construct the fish spawning habitat at Fighting Island in the Detroit River. Pre-construction fisheries assessment during 2006–2008 showed that along with the presence of adult lake sturgeon, spawning conditions were favorable. However, no eggs were found in assessments conducted prior to reef construction. The 3300 m 2 Fighting Island reef was placed at the upstream end of the island in October of 2008. The construction design included 12 spawning beds of three replicates each consisting of either round rock, small or large (shot-rock) diameter limestone or a mixture thereof. An observed response by spawning lake sturgeon occurred the following year when spawning-ready adults (ripe), viable eggs, and larvae were collected during May and June 2009. Additional eggs and spawning-ready adults were found in 2010 (no larval sampling occurred in 2010) as well as collection of three age-0 juvenile lake sturgeon in bottom trawls fished downstream of the reef during July 2010. Spawning lake sturgeon showed no repeatable preference for any of the four particular substrate types but showed a high degree of preference for the island side of the channel, where faster water current velocities occurred. In 2009, overall lake sturgeon egg densities across all replicates averaged 102 m -2 and seven larvae were found in night drift-net samples. In 2010, average lake sturgeon egg density was 12 m -2 and three age-0 lake sturgeon averaging 120 mm TL were collected in bottom trawls in deepwater (∼8 m depth) downstream from the constructed reef. These results demonstrated successful reproduction by lake sturgeon on a man-made reef and suggested that additions and improvements to fish spawning habitat could enhance reproduction and early life history survival of lake sturgeon in the Detroit River.

Michigan;Ontario↗

Factors limiting the recovery of boreal toads ( Bufo b. boreas )

Boreal toads ( Bufo b. boreas ) are widely distributed over much of the mountainous western United States. Populations in the Southern Rocky Mountains suffered extensive declines in the late 1970s through early 1980s (Carey, 1993). At the time, these mass mortalities were thought to be associated with a bacterial infection (Carey, 1993). Although the few populations that survived the mass die-offs were not systematically monitored until at least 1993, no mass mortalities had been observed until 1996 when die-offs were observed. A mycotic skin infection associated with a chytrid fungus is now causing mortality of toads in at least two of the populations (M.S. Jones and D.E. Green, unpublished data; Muths et al., 2003). Boreal toads are now absent throughout large areas of their former distribution in Colorado and southern Wyoming and may be extinct in New Mexico (Corn et al., 1989; Carey, 1993; Stuart and Painter, 1994). These toads are classified as “endangered” by Colorado and New Mexico and are designated as a protected non-game species in Wyoming. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has categorized the Southern Rocky Mountain populations for federal listing and is currently reviewing their designation as a “warranted but precluded” species for possible listing in the next few years. For the management of boreal toads and their habitats, a Boreal Toad Recovery Team was formed by the Colorado Division of Wildlife in 1995 as part of a collaborative effort with federal agencies within the United States’ departments of the Interior and Agriculture and with agencies in two adjoining states. To date, conservation agreements have been signed by eight state and federal agencies and by the Colorado Natural Heritage Program. Although boreal toads were considered common throughout their range in Colorado, no comprehensive surveys of the numbers and sizes of their populations were conducted prior to mass die-offs in the 1970s. Surveys completed in the late 1980s to early 1990s, however, indicated that the toads were still present in only one of 377 historical sites in parts of western Colorado (Hammerson, 1992) and in about 17% of previously known sites in the Colorado Front Range (Corn et al., 1989). Once common in Rocky Mountain National Park, boreal toads are now found at only seven localities, with just two or three of these populations likely to be reproducing successfully each year (Corn et al., 1997). Intensive surveys by the Boreal Toad Recovery Team since 1995 have found about 50 breeding sites comprising 25 distinct populations within Colorado (Loeffler, unpublished data). Of these populations, most are small (fewer than five egg clutches laid per year) and may not survive over the long term. Efforts to restore population sizes and expand the geographical distribution of boreal toads in the southern Rocky Mountains have involved considerable person-hours and financial commitments. Special care has been taken to protect habitats and, when feasible, to improve sites where breeding populations currently exist. However, initial attempts to repatriate these toads in historic habitats in which boreal toads were present before 1975 have generally proven unsuccessful (Carey, unpublished data; Muths et al., 2003). It is too early to determine if recent repatriations will establish breeding populations (Scherff-Norris, 1999), but these efforts will likely continue. Despite the best human intentions and efforts, the recovery of former population sizes and the historical distribution of boreal toads will greatly depend on its own life history characteristics. However, as we will review in this paper, environmental factors affect many life history attributes in a manner that poses serious obstacles for recovery.

Colorado↗

The evolution of the southern California uplift, 1955 through 1976

The southern California uplift culminated in 1974 as a 150- km-wide crustal swell that extended about 600 km eastward and east-southeastward from Point Arguello to the Colorado River and Salton Sea, respectively; it was characterized by remarkably uniform height changes between 1959 and 1974 of 0.30-0.35 m over at least half of its 60,000-70,000 km 2 area. At its zenith, the uplift included virtually the entire Transverse Ranges geologic province and parts of the Coast Ranges, San Joaquin Valley, Sierra Nevada, Basin and Range, Mojave Desert, Peninsular Ranges, and Salton Trough provinces. The alinement of the western part of the uplift closely paralleled the east-trending Transverse Ranges, whereas the southern flank of the eastern lobe roughly coincided with the west-northwest-trending San Andreas fault. The position and configuration of the uplift associate it with a singularly complex section of the boundary between the North American and Pacific plates that has certainly sustained major modification during the past 5 million years and probably during the past 1 million years. Surface deformation can be categorized as tectonic or nontectonic. Nontectonic vertical displacements associated with the activities of man have overwhelmed natural compaction and areally significant soil expansion in the southern California area. Because tectonic displacements are implicitly defined as those that cannot be otherwise explained, those vertical movements that can be reasonably attributed to artificial processes have been subtracted from our reconstructed configurations of the uplift. Hence this reconstruction has necessarily included the assembly and evaluation of an enormous volume of data on oil-field operations, changes in ground-water levels, and measured subsidence (or rebound) associated with changes in the underground fluid regimen. Measured changes in height at various stages in the evolution of the uplift have been based chiefly on first-order levelings carried out between 1953 and 1976. Exceptions to this generalization consist largely of the results of pre-1953 surveys through the western Transverse Ranges and the eastern Mojave Desert. Errors in measured height differences derive from blunders, systematic survey errors, random survey errors, improperly formulated orthometric corrections, and intrasurvey movement; the last of these has created the most serious problems encountered in our reconstruction of the basic data. A variety of independent tests indicate that survey error associated with the utilized levelings was generally small and fell largely within the predicted random-error range. Moreover, the redundancy and coherence displayed by the entire data set provide convincing evidence of survey accuracy and the virtual absence of height- and slope-dependent error in particular. Our reconstructions of the changing configuration of the uplift derive chiefly from comparisons among sequentially developed observed elevations along the same route. Most of the observed elevations from which the vertical displacements were computed have been reconstructed with respect to bench mark Tidal 8, San Pedro, as invariant in height. Because the San Pedro tide station has been characterized by a history of modest relative uplift, vertical displacements referred to this station are biased slightly toward the appearance of subsidence. Where the observed elevations cannot be conveniently tied to Tidal 8, they have been referred to secondary control points whose history with respect to Tidal 8 can be independently established. Each of the lines of observed elevation changes provides, accordingly, a section athwart or along the axis of the uplift from which the changes in the configuration of the uplift can be roughly generalized. Because relatively few surveys were run in 1955, which we choose as a representative temporal datum, we have commonly incorporated the results of earlier or of somewhat later levelings as the equivalents of 1955 surveys. Although this procedure introduces a certain subjectivity, the probable equivalence between the results of these earlier or later surveys with those that would have been obtained had this leveling been carried out in 1955, usually can be independently tested. Wherever the calculated vertical displacements are based on comparisons between the results of levelings over different routes, the observed elevations have been orthometrically corrected to agree with those that would have been produced had each of these surveys been along the same route. The growth of the southern California uplift consisted of two well-defined spasms of positive movement, the second of which was closely followed by partial collapse. Our reconstruction, although it clearly errs in detail, indicates that the uplift, together with marginal and apparently ephemeral tectonic subsidence, nucleated in the west-central Transverse Ranges near Ozena, sometime between the spring of 1959 and the spring of 1960. The uplift expanded rapidly eastward (and probably westward as well), and by the fall of 1961 much of the Transverse Ranges and the Mojave Desert at least as far east as Twentynine Palms had risen by as much as 0.25 m. Between 1962 and 1972 the area included by the initially developed (1959-61) uplift sustained additional but clearly decelerating uplift accompanied locally by oscillatory displacements. Between 1972/ 73 and 1974 a second crustal spasm extended the uplift eastward to the Colorado River and elevated much of the eastern Mojave Desert by values that equaled or exceeded those developed within the western lobe. Between 1974 and 1976, at least the central part of the uplift sustained partial collapse that nowhere amounted to less than 50 percent of the cumulative uplift since 1959. Whether this collapse affected the entire uplift is conjectural, but we now recognize well-defined evidence of major down-to-the-north tilting that must have occurred within the eastern part of the uplift at some time between 1974 and 1976. Accumulating evidence indicates that nearly all the area included with the southern California uplift underwent similar uplift and partial collapse during the early part of the 20th century. Thus we infer that the recent uplift represents but a single event in an ongoing, more or less cyclic deformational process characterized by a period of about 50 years. Even though less than two full cycles are expressed in the geodetic record, the cumulative rate of uplift near the center of the recent uplift probably has averaged about 5 mm/yr, a value that is roughly consistent with the uplift rates that have been deduced for the late Quaternary emergent marine terraces along the south flank of the Transverse Ranges. Although the evolution of the recent uplift is relatively well defined, its correlation with the regional seismicity is poorly defined. A comparison between the occurrence of southern California earthquakes of magnitude ≥4 during the period 1932 to 1976 with the 1974 configuration of the uplift demonstrates the existence of (1) relatively aseismic areas within the western lobe of the uplift (in the western Transverse Ranges), in the central part of the uplift (in the western Mojave Desert), and along an east-trending zone that extends into the eastern Mojave athwart the south flank of the uplift (north of the Salton Sea) and (2) localized concentrations of seismic activity along the flanks of the uplift. Moreover, 9 of the 10 largest earthquakes recorded within or around the area of the southern California uplift during the period 1932 to 1976 (the 1933 Long Beach, the 1941 Santa Barbara, the 1946 Walker Pass, the 1947 Manix, the 1948 Desert Hot Springs, and the four major 1952 Kern County shocks) occurred before the inception of the uplift in 1959 or 1960. The area embraced by the southern California uplift has been identified with geodetically defined horizontal strain, part of which may have accumulated as a major north-south contractional event that roughly coincided with the first spasm of uplift. Nonetheless, continuing contractional strain associated with regionally developed partial collapse argues that the uplift cannot be fully explained simply as the vertical expression of continuing north-south compression. Consideration of the two well-defined historical episodes of uplift and partial collapse indicate that the southern California uplift may be the product of decoupling and viscous flow beneath the seismogenic zone, presumably driven by continuing motion between the irregularly margined plates south of the great bend of the San Andreas fault. Because the magnitude of the maximum uplift associated with each episode was approximately the same, there may be some threshold value above which collapse (viscous flow) may ensue; the absence of total collapse may be a function of precollapse strain hardening within the postulated subseismogenic viscoelastic layer.

California↗

Genomic identity of white oak species in an eastern North American syngameon

The eastern North American white oaks, a complex of approximately 16 potentially interbreeding species, have become a classic model for studying the genetic nature of species in a syngameon. Genetic work over the past two decades has demonstrated the reality of oak species, but gene flow between sympatric oaks raises the question of whether there are conserved regions of the genome that define oak species. Does gene flow homogenize the entire genome? Do the regions of the genome that distinguish a species in one part of its range differ from the regions that distinguish it in other parts of its range, where it grows in sympatry with different species? Or are there regions of the genome that are relatively conserved across species ranges? In this study, we revisit seven species of the eastern North American white oak syngameon using a set of 80 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected in a previous study because they show differences among, and consistency within, the species. We test the hypothesis that there exist segments of the genome that do not become homogenized by repeated introgression, but retain distinct alleles characteristic of each species. We undertake a range-wide sampling to investigate whether SNPs that appeared to be fixed based on a relatively small sample in our previous work are fixed or nearly fixed across the range of the species. Each of the seven species remains genetically distinct across its range, given our diagnostic set of markers, with relatively few individuals exhibiting admixture of multiple species. SNPs map back to all 12 Quercus linkage groups (chromosomes) and are separated from each other by an average of 7.47 million bp (± 8.74 million bp, SD), but are significantly clustered relative to a random null distribution, suggesting that our SNP toolkit reflects genome-wide patterns of divergence while potentially being concentrated in regions of the genome that reflect a higher-than-average history of among-species divergence. This application of a DNA toolkit designed for the simple problem of identifying species in the field has two important implications. First, the eastern North American white oak syngameon is composed of entities that most taxonomists would consider “good species.” Second, and more fundamentally, species in the syngameon are genetically coherent because characteristic portions of the genome remain divergent despite a history of introgression. Understanding the conditions under which some loci diverge while others introgress is key to understanding the origins and maintenance of global tree diversity.

Estern United States↗

Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer experiment: Investigation description and surface science results

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) investigation on Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) is aimed at determining (1) the composition of surface minerals, rocks, and ices; (2) the temperature and dynamics of the atmosphere; (3) the properties of the atmospheric aerosols and clouds; (4) the nature of the polar regions; and (5) the thermophysical properties of the surface materials. These objectives are met using an infrared (5.8- to 50-μm) interferometric spectrometer, along with broadband thermal (5.1- to 150-μm) and visible/near-IR (0.3- to 2.9-μm) radiometers. The MGS TES instrument weighs 14.47 kg, consumes 10.6 W when operating, and is 23.6×35.5×40.0 cm in size. The TES data are calibrated to a 1-σ precision of 2.5 −6 ×10 −8 W cm −2 sr −1 /cm −1 , 1.6×10 −6 W cm −2 sr −1 , and ∼0.5 K in the spectrometer, visible/near-IR bolometer, and IR bolometer, respectively. These instrument subsections are calibrated to an absolute accuracy of ∼4×10 −8 W cm −2 sr −1 /cm −1 (0.5 K at 280 K), 1–2%, and ∼1–2 K, respectively. Global mapping of surface mineralogy at a spatial resolution of 3 km has shown the following: (1) The mineralogic composition of dark regions varies from basaltic, primarily plagioclase feldspar and clinopyroxene, in the ancient, southern highlands to andesitic, dominated by plagioclase feldspar and volcanic glass, in the younger northern plains. (2) Aqueous mineralization has produced gray, crystalline hematite in limited regions under ambient or hydrothermal conditions; these deposits are interpreted to be in-place sedimentary rock formations and indicate that liquid water was stable near the surface for a long period of time. (3) There is no evidence for large-scale (tens of kilometers) occurrences of moderate-grained (>50-μm) carbonates exposed at the surface at a detection limit of ∼10%. (4) Unweathered volcanic minerals dominate the spectral properties of dark regions, and weathering products, such as clays, have not been observed anywhere above a detection limit of ∼10%; this lack of evidence for chemical weathering indicates a geologic history dominated by a cold, dry climate in which mechanical, rather than chemical, weathering was the significant form of erosion and sediment production. (5) There is no conclusive evidence for sulfate minerals at a detection limit of ∼15%. The polar region has been studied with the following major conclusions: (1) Condensed CO 2 has three distinct end-members, from fine-grained crystals to slab ice. (2) The growth and retreat of the polar caps observed by MGS is virtually the same as observed by Viking 12 Martian years ago. (3) Unique regions have been identified that appear to differ primarily in the grain size of CO 2 ; one south polar region appears to remain as black slab CO 2 ice throughout its sublimation. (4) Regional atmospheric dust is common in localized and regional dust storms around the margin and interior of the southern cap. Analysis of the thermophysical properties of the surface shows that (1) the spatial pattern of albedo has changed since Viking observations, (2) a unique cluster of surface materials with intermediate inertia and albedo occurs that is distinct from the previously identified low-inertia/bright and high-inertia/dark surfaces, and (3) localized patches of high-inertia material have been found in topographic lows and may have been formed by a unique set of aeolian, fluvial, or erosional processes or may be exposed bedrock.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Displaying seismic deaggregation: The importance of the various sources

Seismic hazard deaggregation has become a standard part of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The first product of PSHA is calculation of the likely severity of ground motion at a given range of annual probability levels, and this is extremely important for seismic design of structures to be built at the site under examination. However, for full analysis of proposed structural designs, engineers also need to examine scenario events to produce detailed time histories. To select such scenarios, a deaggregation of the hazard is performed, whereby the details of sources that contribute to the annual frequency of exceeding specified levels of ground motion, or P exc , are identified. A common format for such a deaggregation is shown in Figure 1 . This relates to the 475-year peak ground acceleration (pga) at Wellington, New Zealand (41.28°S 174.77°E), and shows the distribution in magnitude and distance of sources that contribute to P exc . Return period is approximately the reciprocal of P exc . Stiff soil site conditions ( Standards New Zealand 2004 ) were assumed. The analysis in Figure 1 used the interim version of the updated seismic hazard model for New Zealand ( Stirling et al. 2007 ), with the attenuation function developed by McVerry et al. (2007). Based on a Poisson time dependence model, a return period of 475 years corresponds to a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. From Figure 1 , it is apparent that for this site the main contribution to ground motion of this severity is from earthquakes of magnitude about 7.6 less than 10 km from the site (blue), and there is another strong contribution from larger events in the distance range 10 to 20 km (red). These correspond to the Wellington and Wairarapa faults, respectively (see Table 1 ). There are other events less than 10 km from the site and small contributions from other sources. At this site the major contributions are from specific faults nearby, which are readily identified. At sites where there is significant background seismicity, however, the plot will be much more complicated and not so easy to interpret. Figure 1 deaggregates probabilistic pga at the site; other parameters are also commonly deaggregated in the same way, in particular response spectral acceleration at a variety of natural periods. But the figure has a major shortcoming in that it represents only one return period; to obtain a full appreciation of the various contributing sources it is necessary to perform a succession of analyses to cover the full range of return periods.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Contaminants in tropical island streams and their biota

Environmental contamination is problematic for tropical islands due to their typically dense human populations and competing land and water uses. The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico (USA) has a long history of anthropogenic chemical use, and its human population density is among the highest globally, providing a model environment to study contaminant impacts on tropical island stream ecosystems. Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, historic-use chlorinated pesticides, current-use pesticides, Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs), and metals (mercury, cadmium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, and selenium) were quantified in the habitat and biota of Puerto Rico streams and assessed in relation to land-use patterns and toxicological thresholds. Water, sediment, and native fish and shrimp species were sampled in 13 rivers spanning broad watershed land-use characteristics during 2009–2010. Contrary to expectations, freshwater stream ecosystems in Puerto Rico were not severely polluted, likely due to frequent flushing flows and reduced deposition associated with recurring flood events. Notable exceptions of contamination were nickel in sediment within three agricultural watersheds (range 123–336 ppm dry weight) and organic contaminants (PCBs, organochlorine pesticides) and mercury in urban landscapes. At an urban site, PCBs i n several fish species (Mountain Mullet Agonostomus monticola [range 0.019–0.030 ppm wet weight] and American Eel Anguilla rostrata [0.019–0.031 ppm wet weight]) may pose human health hazards, with concentrations exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) consumption limit for 1 meal/month. American Eel at the urban site also contained dieldrin (range < detection-0.024 ppm wet weight) that exceeded the EPA maximum allowable consumption limit. The Bigmouth Sleeper Gobiomorous dormitor , an important piscivorus sport fish, accumulated low levels of organic contaminants in edible muscle tissue (due to its low lipid c ontent) and may be most suitable for human consumption island-wide; only mercury at one site (an urban location) exceeded EPA's consumption limit of 3 meals/month for this species. These results comprise the first comprehensive island-wide contaminant assessment of Puerto Rico streams and biota and provide natural resource and public health agencies here and in similar tropical islands elsewhere with information needed to guide ecosystem and fisheries conservation and management and human health risk assessment.

Environmental Research↗

Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Nature Communications↗