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At least 1,459 records · Page 81Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Linkage of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Texas Water Availability Model to simulate the effects of brush management on monthly storage of Canyon Lake, south-central Texas, 1995-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, developed and applied an approach to create a linkage between the published upper Guadalupe River Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) brush-management (ashe juniper [ Juniperus ashei ]) model and the full authorization version Guadalupe River Water Availability Model (WAM). The SWAT model was published by the USGS, and the Guadalupe River WAM is available from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The upper Guadalupe River watershed is a substantial component of the Guadalupe River WAM. This report serves in part as documentation of a proof of concept on the feasibility of linking these two water-resources planning models for the purpose of simulating possible increases in water storage in Canyon Lake as a result of different brush-management scenarios. The SWAT-WAM linkage for the upper Guadalupe River is documented with a principal objective to evaluate the distributional characteristics of the monthly water storage of Canyon Lake during selected drought conditions. Focus is on the relative evaluation of select scenarios of large-scale or “extensive” brush management within the upper Guadalupe River watershed. There are six SWAT simulations for the upper Guadalupe River watershed that include a baseline (0-percent management of treatable ashe juniper, the baseline scenario from a previous study in which no percentage of ashe juniper is numerically replaced with grassland) along with five scenarios (extensions of SWAT simulations from a previous study) of 20-, 40-, 60-, 80-, and 100-percent random (numerical) replacement of treatable ashe juniper with grasslands throughout the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas. SWAT is a process-based, semidistributed, water-balance model designed to predict the effects of landscape management decisions on water yields. A watershed is subdivided into subbasins, and each subbasin is associated with a single reach on the stream network. In general a WAM, such as the Guadalupe River WAM, provides analysis of generalized water rights in a river and reservoir framework. A WAM accommodates hydrology and water usage through several input files containing water rights, watershed parameters, and naturalized streamflow time series. A WAM is generalized for application to rivers and reservoir systems, and input datasets are uniquely developed for a river basin of concern. The extractions of SWAT output for the five extensive brush-management and baseline scenarios were offset by –21 years and, in general, the results were then mapped to the WAM input-flow file. The offset of –21 years was chosen arbitrarily for technical reasons and means that the period of monthly record 1995–2010 of the upper Guadalupe River SWAT became the synthetic period of monthly record 1974–89, hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period, of the Guadalupe River WAM. The relative (between scenario to baseline) effects of extensive brush-management scenarios by using the SWAT-WAM linkage were evaluated, and two critical intermediate results were total inflow to Canyon Lake from 1995 to 2010 and the monthly storage of Canyon Lake from 1974 to 1989 (synthetic). The first quartile or lower 25th percentile of monthly storage of Canyon Lake for the baseline scenario is 381,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) for the hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period. This lower quartile was chosen for analysis for two critical purposes. First, Canyon Lake is managed with a conservation pool of about 386,200 acre-ft capacity (as recognized by the WAM) and is at or near conservation capacity about 50 percent or more of the time; further, there is intrinsic data censoring that occurs for the monthly storage distribution because Canyon Lake is at or near conservation pool elevation the majority of the time. This intrinsic censoring has the effect of creating a bounded distribution with a left or low-volume tail. Statistical assessment of the brush-management scenarios beginning with the 381,000 acre-ft censoring threshold provides readily interpretable results. Second, the quantification of brush management during periods lacking abundant rainfall, which were defined in this study as months for which Canyon Lake storage was below the 25th percentile for the simulation period, are of substantial interest to water-resource managers and stakeholders in the context of water-supply enhancement. A statistical assessment of the SWAT-WAM linkage for the low-volume tail of the distribution of monthly storage of Canyon Lake is the focus of analysis and interpretation. Drought periods for the analysis are defined as the months (consecutive or not) during which Canyon Lake is below the 25th percentile of storage (381,000 acre-ft) for the baseline scenario. Such months are referred to as being within the “Drought Quartile.” The Drought Quartile is a conceptual and heuristically determined waypoint for the analysis and is not related to any administrative definition of drought by stakeholders or policy makers. The five scenarios and the baseline scenario simulated in the upper Guadalupe River SWAT were all passed through the Guadalupe River WAM by the SWAT-WAM linkage described in this report. A comparison of the mean increase per month in reservoir storage for Canyon Lake conditioned for the Drought Quartile was made. For each of the five brush-management and baseline scenarios, the months with storage below 381,000 acre-ft were extracted. The mean monthly storages during the Drought Quartile were computed for each of the five scenarios and the baseline scenario. The mean of the baseline scenario was 376,458 acre-ft and subsequently was subtracted from the mean monthly storage during the Drought Quartile for each of the five scenarios. The mean monthly offset storages of Canyon Lake during the Drought Quartile were 110 acre-ft (20 percent); 448 acre-ft (40 percent); 754 acre-ft (60 percent); 1,080 acre-ft (80 percent); and 1,090 acre-ft (100 percent). A particular mean was interpreted as follows: the value of 754 acre-ft for the 60-percent brush-management scenario implies that, on average, this scenario indicates an additional 754 acre-ft per month of storage in Canyon Lake relative to the baseline during the Drought Quartile. All of the five scenarios resulted in an increase on average to water supply relative to the baseline scenario during the Drought Quartile through the SWAT-WAM linkage.

Texas↗
USGS2007

Population influences on tornado reports in the United States

The number of tornadoes reported in the United States is believed to be less than the actual incidence of tornadoes, especially prior to the 1990s, because tornadoes may be undetectable by human witnesses in sparsely populated areas and areas in which obstructions limit the line of sight. A hierarchical Bayesian model is used to simultaneously correct for population-based sampling bias and estimate tornado density using historical tornado report data. The expected result is that F2-F5 compared with F0-F1 tornado reports would vary less with population density. The results agree with this hypothesis for the following population centers: Atlanta, Georgia; Champaign, Illinois; and Des Moines, Iowa. However, the results indicated just the opposite in Oklahoma. It is hypothesized that the result is explained by the misclassification of tornadoes that were worthy of F2-F5 rating but were classified as F0-F1 tornadoes, thereby artificially decreasing the number of F2-F5 and increasing the number of F0-F1 reports in rural Oklahoma.

Weather and Forecasting↗
USGS1996

Habitat selection and productivity of least terns on the lower Platte River, Nebraska

Least terns ( Sterna antillarum ) were studied on the lower Platte River, Nebraska, where this endangered population nests on natural sandbar habitat and on sandpit sites created by gravel dredging adjacent to the river. Theoretically terns should select habitats according to habitat suitability. However, the introduction of sandpits and conversion of tallgrass prairies along the river banks to agriculture, residential, and wooded areas may have affected terns' abilities to distinguish suitable habitat or the suitability of nesting habitats in general. I examined habitat selection and productivity of least terns to determine if terns selected habitat according to suitability (as indicated by productivity), what factors affected habitat selection and productivity, and if estimated productivity could support this population. Available habitats of both types were characterized and quantified using aerial videography (1989-90), and habitat use was assessed from census data (1987-90). Productivity of adults and causes and correlates of egg and chick mortality were estimated (1987-90). Population trend was assessed with a deterministic model using my estimates of productivity and a range of survival estimates for Laridae reported in the literature. Terns tended to use river sites with large midstream sandbars and a wide channel, and large sandpit sites with large surface areas of water relative to unused sites on both habitats. Number of sites and area of sand available were estimated using discriminant function analysis of variables quantified from video scenes of both habitats. Terns apparently did not use all potentially available sandbar and sandpit sites because discriminant function factor scores for used and unused sites overlapped broadly for both habitats. Terns did not prefer 1 habitat over the other. Although proportions of available sites used were greater on sandpits than on the river, proportions of available sand used did not differ between habitats. Proportion of terns using each habitat was similar to proportion of available sand on each habitat. The distribution of nest initiation dates and rates of colony-site turnover also were similar on both habitats. Productivity did not differ between habitats but varied significantly among sites. Nest success, fledging success, and fledglings per pair averaged 0.54, 0.28, and 0.47, respectively. Key factor analysis revealed that chick survival had a greater influence on production of fledglings (on both sandbars and sandpits) than did failure to produce a maximum clutch size or egg mortality. Most egg mortality was caused by predation on sandpits and by flooding on sandbars. Predation was suspected as the major cause of loss for chicks on both habitats. Path analysis revealed no strong or consistent correlations among mortality, numbers of nests and chicks, track trails of intruders into colonies, and habitat variables at colonies on either habitat. Theoretically, terns should not prefer a habitat when habitats are equally suitable if terns have had time to respond to habitat changes. Although sandbars and sandpits appeared equally suitable and terns did not prefer either habitat, local productivity will not support this population unless annual postfledging survival is higher than current estimates for the species. Population trend estimated with fledglings per pair = 0.50 was negative for all but the highest (ca 0.90) rates of annual postfledging survival. Furthermore, deterministic models like the one used in this study overstimate trend. Productivity insufficient to support the local population, in spite of habitat use that reflects habitat suitability, could be due to increased predation caused by habitat alteration adjacent to the river that may have changed the predator community. Alternatively, terns in this area could persist in spite of prevailing low productivity because they are relatively long-lived birds, if highly productive years occasionally occur or if this population is augmented by immigrants from elsewhere.

Nebraska↗
USGS2002

Evaluation of spatial models to predict vulnerability of forest birds to brood parasitism by cowbirds

We constructed alternative spatial models at two scales to predict Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) parasitism rates from land cover maps. The local-scale models tested competing hypotheses about the relationship between cowbird parasitism and distance of host nests from a forest edge (forest-nonforest boundary). The landscape models tested competing hypotheses about how landscape features (e.g., forests, agricultural fields) interact to determine rates of cowbird parasitism. The models incorporate spatial neighborhoods with a radius of 2.5 km in their formulation, reflecting the scale of the majority of cowbird commuting activity. Field data on parasitism by cowbirds (parasitism rate and number of cowbird eggs per nest) were collected at 28 sites in the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa and were compared to the predictions of the alternative models. At the local scale, there was a significant positive relationship between cowbird parasitism and mean distance of nest sites from the forest edge. At the landscape scale, the best fitting models were the forest-dependent and forest-fragmentation-dependent models, in which more heavily forested and less fragmented landscapes had higher parasitism rates. However, much of the explanatory power of these models results from the inclusion of the local-scale relationship in these models. We found lower rates of cowbird parasitism than did most Midwestern studies, and we identified landscape patterns of cowbird parasitism that are opposite to those reported in several other studies of Midwestern songbirds. We caution that cowbird parasitism patterns can be unpredictable, depending upon ecoregional location and the spatial extent, and that our models should be tested in other ecoregions before they are applied there. Our study confirms that cowbird biology has a strong spatial component, and that improved spatial models applied at multiple spatial scales will be required to predict the effects of landscape and forest management on cowbird parasitism of forest birds.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2008

Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Labor market exposure and sensitivity analysis to a magnitude 7.8 earthquake

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business establishments, or 44 percent of all establishments, would experience Instrumental Intensities between VII (7) and X (10). This represents more than 4 million employees earning over $45 billion in quarterly payroll. Over 57,000 of these establishments, employing over 1 million employees earning over $10 billion in quarterly payroll, would experience Instrumental Intensities of IX (9) or X (10). Based upon absolute counts and percentages, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Super Sector and the Manufacturing Super Sector are estimated to have the greatest exposure and sensitivity respectively. The Information and the Natural Resources and Mining Super Sectors are estimated to be the least impacted. Areas estimated to experience an Instrumental Intensity of X (10) account for approximately 3 percent of the region's labor market.

California↗
USGS2011

Monitoring the Earthquake source process in North America

With the implementation of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response system (PAGER), rapid determination of earthquake moment magnitude is essential, especially for earthquakes that are felt within the contiguous United States. We report an implementation of moment tensor processing for application to broad, seismically active areas of North America. This effort focuses on the selection of regional crustal velocity models, codification of data quality tests, and the development of procedures for rapid computation of the seismic moment tensor. We systematically apply these techniques to earthquakes with reported magnitude greater than 3.5 in continental North America that are not associated with a tectonic plate boundary. Using the 0.02-0.10 Hz passband, we can usually determine, with few exceptions, moment tensor solutions for earthquakes with M w as small as 3.7. The threshold is significantly influenced by the density of stations, the location of the earthquake relative to the seismic stations and, of course, the signal-to-noise ratio. With the existing permanent broadband stations in North America operated for rapid earthquake response, the seismic moment tensor of most earthquakes that are M w 4 or larger can be routinely computed. As expected the nonuniform spatial pattern of these solutions reflects the seismicity pattern. However, the orientation of the direction of maximum compressive stress and the predominant style of faulting is spatially coherent across large regions of the continent.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2004

Linking selenium sources to ecosystems: San Francisco Bay-Delta Model

Marine sedimentary rocks of the Coast Ranges contribute selenium to soil, surface water, and ground water in the western San Joaquin Valley, California. Irrigation funnels selenium into a network of subsurface drains and canals. Proposals to build a master drain (i.e., San Luis Drain) to discharge into the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary remain as controversial today as they were in the 1950s, when drainage outside the San Joaquin Valley was first considered. An existing 85-mile portion of the San Luis Drain was closed in 1986 after fish mortality and deformities in ducks, grebes and coots were discovered at Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge, the temporary terminus of the drain. A 28-mile portion of the drain now conveys drainage from 100,000 acres into the San Joaquin River and eventually into the Bay-Delta. If the San Luis Drain is extended directly to the Bay-Delta, as is now being proposed as an alternative to sustain agriculture, it could receive drainage from an estimated one-million acres of farmland affected by rising water tables and increasing salinity. In addition to agricultural sources, oil refineries also discharge selenium to the Bay-Delta, although those discharges have declined in recent years. To understand the effects of changing selenium inputs, scientists have developed the Bay-Delta Selenium Model.

California↗
USGS2005

Role of rock/fluid characteristics in carbon (CO 2 ) storage and modeling

The presentation ? Role of Rock/Fluid Characteristics in Carbon (CO2) Storage and Modeling ? was prepared for the meeting of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in Houston, Tex., on April 6?7, 2005. It provides an overview of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, and a summary of their effects on the Earth?s atmosphere. It presents methods of mitigating the effects of greenhouse gases, and the role of rock and fluid properties on CO2 storage mechanisms. It also lists factors that must be considered to adequately model CO2 storage.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Burial and thermal history of the central Appalachian basin, based on three 2-D models of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia

Introduction: Three regional-scale, cross sectional (2-D) burial and thermal history models are presented for the central Appalachian basin based on the detailed geologic cross sections of Ryder and others (2004), Crangle and others (2005), and Ryder, R.T., written communication. The models integrate the available thermal and geologic information to constrain the burial, uplift, and erosion history of the region. The models are restricted to the relatively undeformed part of the basin and extend from the Rome trough in West Virginia and Pennsylvania northwestward to the Findlay arch in Ohio. This study expands the scope of previous work by Rowan and others (2004) which presented a preliminary burial/thermal history model for a cross section (E-E') through West Virginia and Ohio. In the current study, the burial/thermal history model for E-E' is revised, and integrated with results of two additional cross sectional models (D-D' and C-C'). The burial/thermal history models provide calculated thermal maturity (Ro%) values for the entire stratigraphic sequence, including hydrocarbon source rocks, along each of the three cross sections. In contrast, the Ro and conodont CAI data available in the literature are sparse and limited to specific stratigraphic intervals. The burial/thermal history models also provide the regional temperature and pressure framework that is needed to model hydrocarbon migration.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1983

Evaluation of water-quality characteristics of part of the Spokane Aquifer, Washington and Idaho, using a solute-transport digital model

The principal dissolved constituents in water in the Spokane aquifer are calcium and bicarbonate. These constituents (as well as dissolved solids, hardness, and magnesium) each correlate well with specific conductance, whereas chloride, sodium, and nitrate each do not. Specific conductance ranges from 73 to 820 micromhos per centimeter throughout the study area. Short-term variations in water quality in the Spokane aquifer are generally greater than long-term variations. Vertical variations in concentration of chemical constituents occurred in four of 15 wells used to sample the upper 50 feet of the aquifer along several cross sections. Changes in water quality from one cross section to another could not be directly related to land-use activities. A digital model was developed and used to simulate solute transport of conservative ions in the Spokane aquifer. Specifically, the model was used to estimate the impact of the chloride ion from recharge through septic tanks and from irrigation on the water quality of the aquifer. Analysis shows that the estimated impact on the aquifer from these two source loadings was less than a 1-milligram-per-liter increase throughout approximately 80 percent of the aquifer, but increases averaging about 3 milligrams per liter occurred in some peripheral areas. Various water-quality-management schemes based on manmade or natural stresses can be tested with the model.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1982

The evaluation of selected one-dimensional stream water quality models with field data

The U.S. Geological Survey One-Dimensional Stream Water-Quality Model, QUAL II Stream Water-Quality Routing Model, the U.S. Army corps of Engineers Water Quality for River Reservoir Systems Model, and the M.I.T. Transient Water Quality Network were evaluated and compared using actual water-quality data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey. The field data were taken from steady-state studies of the Chattahoochee River in Georgia, the Willamette River in Oregon, and the Arkansas River in Colorado. The data used to evaluate the models covered a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological conditions. The Willamette River is a large sluggish stream, whereas the Arkansas River is a small dynamic stream. The Chattahoochee River is of moderate size. Each stream has unique water-quality characteristics that test a wide range of model options. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Groundwater availability of the Denver Basin aquifer system, Colorado

The Denver Basin aquifer system is a critical water resource for growing municipal, industrial, and domestic uses along the semiarid Front Range urban corridor of Colorado. The confined bedrock aquifer system is located along the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountain Front Range where the mountains meet the Great Plains physiographic province. Continued population growth and the resulting need for additional water supplies in the Denver Basin and throughout the western United States emphasize the need to continually monitor and reassess the availability of groundwater resources. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated large-scale regional studies to provide updated groundwater-availability assessments of important principal aquifers across the United States, including the Denver Basin. This study of the Denver Basin aquifer system evaluates the hydrologic effects of continued pumping and documents an updated groundwater flow model useful for appraisal of hydrologic conditions.

Colorado↗
USGS2013

The use of process models to inform and improve statistical models of nitrate occurrence, Great Miami River Basin, southwestern Ohio

Statistical models of nitrate occurrence in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, use observed relations between nitrate concentrations and sets of explanatory variables—representing well-construction, environmental, and source characteristics— to predict the probability that nitrate, as nitrogen, will exceed a threshold concentration. However, the models do not explicitly account for the processes that control the transport of nitrogen from surface sources to a pumped well and use area-weighted mean spatial variables computed from within a circular buffer around the well as a simplified source-area conceptualization. The use of models that explicitly represent physical-transport processes can inform and, potentially, improve these statistical models. Specifically, groundwater-flow models simulate advective transport—predominant in many surficial aquifers— and can contribute to the refinement of the statistical models by (1) providing for improved, physically based representations of a source area to a well, and (2) allowing for more detailed estimates of environmental variables. A source area to a well, known as a contributing recharge area, represents the area at the water table that contributes recharge to a pumped well; a well pumped at a volumetric rate equal to the amount of recharge through a circular buffer will result in a contributing recharge area that is the same size as the buffer but has a shape that is a function of the hydrologic setting. These volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas will approximate circular buffers in areas of relatively flat hydraulic gradients, such as near groundwater divides, but in areas with steep hydraulic gradients will be elongated in the upgradient direction and agree less with the corresponding circular buffers. The degree to which process-model-estimated contributing recharge areas, which simulate advective transport and therefore account for local hydrologic settings, would inform and improve the development of statistical models can be implicitly estimated by evaluating the differences between explanatory variables estimated from the contributing recharge areas and the circular buffers used to develop existing statistical models. The larger the difference in estimated variables, the more likely that statistical models would be changed, and presumably improved, if explanatory variables estimated from contributing recharge areas were used in model development. Comparing model predictions from the two sets of estimated variables would further quantify—albeit implicitly—how an improved, physically based estimate of explanatory variables would be reflected in model predictions. Differences between the two sets of estimated explanatory variables and resultant model predictions vary spatially; greater differences are associated with areas of steep hydraulic gradients. A direct comparison, however, would require the development of a separate set of statistical models using explanatory variables from contributing recharge areas. Area-weighted means of three environmental variables—silt content, alfisol content, and depth to water from the U.S. Department of Agriculture State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data—and one nitrogen-source variable (fertilizer-application rate from county data mapped to Enhanced National Land Cover Data 1992 (NLCDe 92) agricultural land use) can vary substantially between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas and among contributing recharge areas for different sets of well variables. The differences in estimated explanatory variables are a function of the same factors affecting the contributing recharge areas as well as the spatial resolution and local distribution of the underlying spatial data. As a result, differences in estimated variables between circular buffers and contributing recharge areas are complex and site specific as evidenced by differences in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed significantly at the local and basin scale. The scale and distribution of prediction differences can be explained by the underlying differences in the estimated variables and the relative weight of the variables in the statistical models. Differences in predictions of exceeding 1 mg/L as N, which only includes environmental variables, generally correlated with the underlying differences in STATSGO data, whereas differences in exceeding 4 mg/L as N were more spatially extensive because that model included environmental and nitrogen-source variables. Using depths to water from within circular buffers derived from the spatial data and depths to water within the circular buffers calculated from the groundwater-flow model, restricted to the same range, resulted in large differences in predicted probabilities. The differences in estimated explanatory variables between contributing recharge areas and circular buffers indicate incorporation of physically based contributing recharge area likely would result in a different set of explanatory variables and an improved set of statistical models. The use of a groundwater-flow model to improve representations of source areas or to provide more-detailed estimates of specific explanatory variables includes a number of limitations and technical considerations. An assumption in these analyses is that (1) there is a state of mass balance between recharge and pumping, and (2) transport to a pumped well is under a steady state flow field. Comparison of volumeequivalent contributing recharge areas under steady-state and transient transport conditions at a location in the southeastern part of the basin shows the steady-state contributing recharge area is a reasonable approximation of the transient contributing recharge area after between 10 and 20 years of pumping. The first assumption is a more important consideration for this analysis. A gradient effect refers to a condition where simulated pumping from a well is less than recharge through the corresponding contributing recharge area. This generally takes place in areas with steep hydraulic gradients, such as near discharge locations, and can be mitigated using a finer model discretization. A boundary effect refers to a condition where recharge through the contributing recharge area is less than pumping. This indicates other sources of water to the simulated well and could reflect a real hydrologic process. In the Great Miami River Basin, large gradient and boundary effects—defined as the balance between pumping and recharge being less than half—occurred in 5 and 14 percent of the basin, respectively. The agreement between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas, differences in estimated variables, and the effect on statisticalmodel predictions between the population of wells with a balance between pumping and recharge within 10 percent and the population of all wells were similar. This indicated process-model limitations did not affect the overall findings in the Great Miami River Basin; however, this would be model specific, and prudent use of a process model needs to entail a limitations analysis and, if necessary, alterations to the model.

Ohio↗
USGS2012

Numerical simulation of flow in deep open boreholes in a coastal freshwater lens, Pearl Harbor Aquifer, O‘ahu, Hawai‘i

The Pearl Harbor aquifer in southern O‘ahu is one of the most important sources of freshwater in Hawai‘i. A thick freshwater lens overlays brackish and saltwater in this coastal aquifer. Salinity profiles collected from uncased deep monitor wells (DMWs) commonly are used to monitor freshwater-lens thickness. However, vertical flow in DMWs can cause the measured salinity to differ from salinity in the adjacent aquifer or in an aquifer without a DWM. Substantial borehole flow and displacement of salinity in DMWs over several hundred feet have been observed in the Pearl Harbor aquifer. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of borehole flow on measured salinity profiles from DMWs. A numerical modeling approach incorporated aquifer hydraulic characteristics and recharge and withdrawal rates representative of the Pearl Harbor aquifer. Borehole flow caused by vertical hydraulic gradients associated with both the natural regional flow system and groundwater withdrawals was simulated. Model results indicate that, with all other factors being equal, greater withdrawal rates, closer withdrawal locations, or higher hydraulic conductivities of the well cause greater borehole flow and displacement of salinity in the well. Borehole flow caused by the natural groundwater-flow system is five orders of magnitude greater than vertical flow in a homogeneous aquifer, and borehole-flow directions are consistent with the regional flow system: downward flow in inland recharge areas and upward flow in coastal discharge areas. Displacement of salinity inside the DMWs associated with the regional groundwater-flow system ranges from less than 1 to 220 ft, depending on the location and assumed hydraulic conductivity of the well. For example, upward displacements of the 2 percent and 50 percent salinity depths in a well in the coastal discharge part of the flow system are 17 and 4.4 ft, respectively, and the average salinity difference between aquifer and borehole is 0.65 percent seawater salinity. Groundwater withdrawals and drawdowns generally occur at shallow depths in the freshwater system with respect to the depth of the DMW and cause upward flow in the DMW. Simulated groundwater withdrawal of 4.3 million gallons per day that is 100 ft from a DMW causes thirty times more borehole flow than borehole flow that is induced by the regional flow field alone. The displacement of the 2 percent borehole salinity depth increases from 17 to 33 ft, and the average salinity difference between aquifer and borehole is 0.85 percent seawater salinity. Peak borehole flow caused by local groundwater withdrawal near DMWs is directly proportional to the pumping rate in the nearby production well. Increasing groundwater withdrawal to 16.7 million gallons per day increases upward displacement of the 50 percent salinity depth (midpoint of the transition zone) from 4.6 to 77 ft, and the average salinity difference between aquifer and borehole is 1.4 percent seawater salinity. Simulated groundwater withdrawal that is 3,000 ft away from DMWs causes less borehole flow and salinity displacements than nearby withdrawal. Simulated effects of groundwater withdrawal from a horizontal shaft and withdrawal from a vertical well in a homogeneous aquifer were similar. Generally, the 50 percent salinity depths are less affected by borehole flow than the 2 percent salinity depths. Hence, measured salinity profiles are useful for calibration of regional numerical models despite borehole-flow effects. Commonly, a 1 percent error in salinity is acceptable in numerical modeling studies. Incorporation of heterogeneity in the model is necessary to simulate long vertical steps observed in salinity profiles in southern O‘ahu. A thick zone of low aquifer hydraulic conductivity limits exchange of water between aquifer and well and creates a long vertical step in the salinity profile. A heterogeneous basalt-aquifer scenario simulates observed vertical salinity steps and borehole flow that is consistent with measured borehole flow from DMWs in southern O‘ahu. However, inclusion of local-scale heterogeneities in regional models generally is not warranted.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2013

Recharge sources and residence times of groundwater as determined by geochemical tracers in the Mayfield Area, southwestern Idaho, 2011–12

Parties proposing residential development in the area of Mayfield, Idaho are seeking a sustainable groundwater supply. During 2011–12, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, used geochemical tracers in the Mayfield area to evaluate sources of aquifer recharge and differences in groundwater residence time. Fourteen groundwater wells and one surface-water site were sampled for major ion chemistry, metals, stable isotopes, and age tracers; data collected from this study were used to evaluate the sources of groundwater recharge and groundwater residence times in the area. Major ion chemistry varied along a flow path between deeper wells, suggesting an upgradient source of dilute water, and a downgradient source of more concentrated water with the geochemical signature of the Idaho Batholith. Samples from shallow wells had elevated nutrient concentrations, a more positive oxygen-18 signature, and younger carbon-14 dates than deep wells, suggesting that recharge comes from young precipitation and surface-water infiltration. Samples from deep wells generally had higher concentrations of metals typical of geothermal waters, a more negative oxygen-18 signature, and older carbon-14 values than samples from shallow wells, suggesting that recharge comes from both infiltration of meteoric water and another source. The chemistry of groundwater sampled from deep wells is somewhat similar to the chemistry in geothermal waters, suggesting that geothermal water may be a source of recharge to this aquifer. Results of NETPATH mixing models suggest that geothermal water composes 1–23 percent of water in deep wells. Chlorofluorocarbons were detected in every sample, which indicates that all groundwater samples contain at least a component of young recharge, and that groundwater is derived from multiple recharge sources. Conclusions from this study can be used to further refine conceptual hydrological models of the area.

Idaho↗
USGS2014

Integrated synoptic surveys of the hydrodynamics and water-quality distributions in two Lake Michigan rivermouth mixing zones using an autonomous underwater vehicle and a manned boat

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Monitoring Network for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries, launched a pilot project in 2010 to determine the value of integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouths using autonomous underwater vehicle technology in response to a call for rivermouth research, which includes study domains that envelop both the fluvial and lacustrine boundaries of the rivermouth mixing zone. The pilot project was implemented at two Lake Michigan rivermouths with largely different scales, hydrodynamics, and settings, but employing primarily the same survey techniques and methods. The Milwaukee River Estuary Area of Concern (AOC) survey included measurements in the lower 2 to 3 miles of the Milwaukee, Menomonee, and Kinnickinnic Rivers and inner and outer Milwaukee Harbor. This estuary is situated in downtown Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and is the most populated basin that flows directly into Lake Michigan. In contrast, the Manitowoc rivermouth has a relatively small harbor separating the rivermouth from Lake Michigan, and the Manitowoc River Watershed is primarily agricultural. Both the Milwaukee and Manitowoc rivermouths are unregulated and allow free exchange of water with Lake Michigan. This pilot study of the Milwaukee River Estuary and Manitowoc rivermouth using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) paired with a manned survey boat resulted in high spatial and temporal resolution datasets of basic water-quality parameter distributions and hydrodynamics. The AUV performed well in these environments and was found primarily well-suited for harbor and nearshore surveys of three-dimensional water-quality distributions. Both case studies revealed that the use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and multiparameter sonde (and an optional flow-through water-quality sampling system) was the best option for riverine surveys. To ensure that the most accurate and highest resolution velocity data were collected concurrently with the AUV surveys, the pilot study used a manned boat equipped with an ADCP. Combining the AUV and manned boat datasets resulted in datasets that are essentially continuous from the fluvial through the lacustrine zones of a rivermouth. Whereas the pilot studies were completed during low flows on the tributaries, completion of surveys at higher flows using the same techniques is possible, but the use of the AUV would be limited to areas with relatively low velocities (less than 2 feet per second) such as the harbors and nearshore zones of Lake Michigan. Overall, this pilot study aimed at evaluation of AUV technology for integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouth mixing zones was successful, and the techniques and methods employed in this pilot study should be transferrable to other sites with similar success. The use of the AUV provided significant time savings compared to traditional sampling techniques. For example, the survey of outer Milwaukee Harbor using the AUV required less than 7 hours for approximately 600 profiles compared to the 150 hours it would have taken using traditional methods in a manned boat (a 95 percent reduction in man-hours). The integrated datasets resulting from the AUV and manned survey boat are of high value and present a picture of the mixing and hydrodynamics of these highly dynamic, highly variable rivermouth mixing zones from the relatively well-mixed fluvial environment through the rivermouth to the stratified lacustrine receiving body of Lake Michigan. Such datasets not only allow researchers to understand more about the physical processes occurring in these rivermouths, but they provide high spatial resolution data required for interpretation of relations between disparate point samples and calibration and validation of numerical models.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Potential groundwater recharge rates for two subsurface-drained agricultural fields, southeastern Minnesota, 2016–18

Subsurface drainage is used to efficiently drain saturated soils to support productive agriculture in poorly drained terrains. Although subsurface drainage alters the water balance for agricultural fields, its effect on groundwater resources and groundwater recharge is poorly understood. In Minnesota, subsurface drainage has begun to increase in southeastern Minnesota, even though this part of the State is underlain by permeable karstic bedrock aquifers with only a thin layer of glacial sediments separating these aquifers from land surface. To gain a better understanding of groundwater recharge effects from subsurface drainage, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, led a 2-year hydrologic study to investigate this connection for two agricultural fields in southeastern Minnesota with subsurface drainage. A total of three monitoring plots were used between the two agricultural fields: two monitoring plots that included an actively drained area with peripheral, undrained areas, and a third monitoring plot without any subsurface drainage. Multiple piezometer transects were set up across the three monitoring plots to characterize the unsaturated zone and shallow water-table flow using pressure transducers and soil moisture probes. From these piezometers, groundwater recharge rates were derived using two different methods: the RISE Water-Table Fluctuation (WTF) method and the DRAINMOD model. In addition to these two methods, the USGS Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model was used to estimate potential recharge rates for three different monitoring plots. In addition to deriving groundwater recharge rates, the hydrologic budget was analyzed to interpret the water-table surface elevation and soil volumetric water content time series. At one of the two drained plots, the transects exhibited varying water-table surface elevation patterns. Frequent backflow from the adjacent ditch caused subsurface drainage flow to slow down or stop drainage through the main collector drain and cause pipe pressurization, so the closest transect appeared to be mostly controlled by the drain pressurization, whereas the farthest transect was more efficiently drained. Both of the drained monitoring plots had an elevation gradient parallel to the pattern tiles, sloping downward towards the collector drain that aggregated the parallel lines into a single drain. Because the transects were set at different gradients in the field, some of the water-table surface elevation differences were also attributed to lateral flow towards the lowest parts of the field. Three methods were used to derive potential groundwater recharge rates: the RISE WTF method, the USGS SWB model, and DRAINMOD-derived deep seepage rates. Potential groundwater recharge rates, using the RISE WTF method, across all piezometers were 1.55 and 1.94 inches per year, respectively, for water years 2017 and 2018. More differentiation of potential recharge rates between different piezometer types occurred for water year 2018. Although the difference was slightly more than 1 inch between the drained and nondrained piezometers for water year 2018, this difference was statistically significant based on a t-test with a p -value of 0.036 ( α =0.05). When looking at recharge based on distance from the drain, the subsurface drain did not affect potential recharge, although other factors such as variability in screen depths, well construction, and specific yield variability cannot be eliminated. The SWB model was also used to estimate potential recharge rates for water years 2017–18, with rates between 2.44 and 5.92 inches per year for the two drained sites, generally higher than the RISE WTF estimates. DRAINMOD-derived potential recharge rates were generally the highest of the three methods, with potential recharge rates varying from 2.07 to 9.49 inches per year. Overall, there was a lack of agreement between the three methods. These results were not remarkable, considering the fundamental differences in the methodology for each method. However, all methods did show a fundamental difference between piezometers within the drained area and piezometers outside the drained area, including the third undrained monitoring plot. The drained areas show a lower overall potential groundwater recharge compared to the nondrained areas for all three estimates. The difference for the 2018 recharge estimates was slightly higher than 1 inch for the RISE WTF method, the difference was almost double for the nine sites for the DRAINMOD model, and the difference between the drain and undrained plots was even more significant for the SWB model.

Minnesota↗