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At least 1,459 records · Page 81Linked to original sources

USGS2013

The significance of ultra-refracted surface gravity waves on sheltered coasts, with application to San Francisco Bay

Ocean surface gravity waves propagating over shallow bathymetry undergo spatial modification of propagation direction and energy density, commonly due to refraction and shoaling. If the bathymetric variations are significant the waves can undergo changes in their direction of propagation (relative to deepwater) greater than 90° over relatively short spatial scales. We refer to this phenomenon as ultra-refraction. Ultra-refracted swell waves can have a powerful influence on coastal areas that otherwise appear to be sheltered from ocean waves. Through a numerical modeling investigation it is shown that San Francisco Bay, one of the earth's largest and most protected natural harbors, is vulnerable to ultra-refracted ocean waves, particularly southwest incident swell. The flux of wave energy into San Francisco Bay results from wave transformation due to the bathymetry and orientation of the large ebb tidal delta, and deep, narrow channel through the Golden Gate. For example, ultra-refracted swell waves play a critical role in the intermittent closure of the entrance to Crissy Field Marsh, a small restored tidal wetland located on the sheltered north-facing coast approximately 1.5 km east of the Golden Gate Bridge.

California↗

USGS2020

Large-scale erosion driven by intertidal eelgrass loss in an estuarine environment

Seagrasses influence local hydrodynamics by inducing drag on the flow and dampening near-bed velocities and wave energy. When seagrasses are lost, near-bed currents and wave energy can increase, which enhances bottom shear stresses, destabilizes sediment, and promotes suspension and erosion. Though seagrasses are being lost rapidly globally, the magnitude of change in sediment stabilization following ecosystem-wide eelgrass loss has rarely been measured. In this study, we explored the geomorphological changes associated with an unprecedented estuary-wide collapse of a seagrass (eelgrass, Zostera marina ) in Morro Bay, CA, USA. Morro Bay has historically suffered from accelerated sedimentation and accretion. However, following massive eelgrass loss since 2010, over 90% of locations that previously had eelgrass experienced erosion. Elevation losses (erosion) reached 0.50 m in some places (mean loss of 0.10 m) with as much as a 50% decrease (median decrease of 13.6%) in elevation (i.e., increase in depth) compared to pre-decline levels. In comparison, the mouth of the estuary, where eelgrass was largely retained, had only 27.7% of the locations with prior eelgrass experiencing erosion and underwent a mean elevation increase (accretion) of 0.32 m. Thus, the loss of eelgrass appears to have altered dynamics at the seabed and transitioned large regions of the estuary from an environment that promotes deposition and accretion to one that promotes suspension and erosion. Large-scale erosion following seagrass loss may be predictive of future shoreline and coastal habitat changes and is likely to be exacerbated by increased storm surge and sea level rise expected with climate change.

California↗

USGS2011

Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied by the Severity of negative impact. L and S are each evaluated on five-point scales, yielding a theoretical spread in risk values of 1 through 25. So defined, these judgment-based values are categorical and ordinal - they do not represent physically measurable quantities, but are nonetheless useful for comparison and therefore decision support. The "risk entities" first evaluated are FEPs - conceptual Features, Events, and Processes based on the list published by Quintessa Ltd. After concrete scenarios are generated based on selected FEPs, scenarios become the critical entities whose associated risks are evaluated and tracked. In IBDP workshops, L and S values for 123 FEPs were generated through expert elicitation. About 30 experts in the project or in GS in general were assigned among six facilitated working groups, and each group was charged to envision risks within a sphere of project operations. Working groups covered FEPs with strong spatial characteristics - such as those related to the injection wellbore and simulated plume footprint - and "nonspatial" FEPs related to finance, regulations, legal, and stakeholder issues. Within these working groups, experts shared information, examined assumptions, refined and extended the FEP list, calibrated responses, and provided initial L and S values by consensus. Individual rankings were collected in a follow-up process via emailed spreadsheets. For each of L and S, three values were collected: Lower Bound, Best Guess, and Upper Bound. The Lower-Upper Bound ranges and the spreads among experts can be interpreted to yield rough confidence measures. Based on experts' responses, FEPs were ranked in terms of their L*S risk levels. FEP rankings were determined from individual (not consensus or averaged) results, thus no high-risk responses were damped out. The higher-risk FEPs were used to generate one or more concrete, well defined risk-bearing scenarios for each FEP. Any FEP scored by any expert as having associated risk of

Conference Paper↗

USGS2011

The path to a successful one-million tonne demonstration of geological sequestration: Characterization, cooperation, and collaboration

The development of the Illinois Basin-Decatur USA test site for a 1 million tonne injection of CO 2 into the Mount Simon Sandstone saline reservoir beginning in 2011 has been a multiphase process requiring a wide array of personnel and resources that began in 2003. The process of regional characterization took two years as part of a Phase I effort focused on the entire Illinois Basin, located in Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, USA. Seeking the cooperation of an industrial source of CO 2 and site selection within the Basin took place during Phase II while most of the concurrent research emphasis was on a set of small-scale tests of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) and CO 2 injection into a coal seam. Phase III began the commitment to the 1 million-tonne test site development through the collaboration of the Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) who is providing a site, the CO 2 , and developing a compression facility, of Schlumberger Carbon Services who is providing expertise for operations, drilling, geophysics, risk assessment, and reservoir modelling, and of the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) whose geologists and engineers lead the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC). Communications and outreach has been a collaborative effort of ADM, ISGS and Schlumberger Carbon Services. The Consortium is one of the seven Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships, a carbon sequestration research program supported by the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy.

Illinois↗

USGS2011

Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation.

Illinois↗

USGS2026

VegET evapotranspiration for Africa: Continental-scale simulation, multi-product evaluation, and drought assessment

Study region Continental Africa, encompassing diverse climatic zones—tropical, arid, and temperate—and spanning major transboundary river basins such as the Nile, Niger, Congo, Volta, and Zambezi River Basins. The region exhibits pronounced hydroclimatic gradients and heterogeneous land use systems ranging from rainfed croplands and rangelands to dense tropical forests and irrigated schemes. Study focus Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is a central component of the terrestrial water balance, governing the redistribution of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Accurate estimation of ETa at continental scale is critical for hydrological monitoring, water resource management, and climate adaptation, as well as for quantifying water, energy, and carbon fluxes that underpin sustainable development. In this study, we applied the agro-hydrologic VegET v2 model to simulate a new, high-resolution, continental-scale ETa dataset for Africa (2000–2021). The model results were benchmarked against four widely used remote sensing-based products—MODIS16 v6.1, SSEBop v6.1, WaPOR v3, and GLEAM v4.1a—across major climate zones, land use types, and River Basins, providing a comprehensive multi-product evaluation of evapotranspiration dynamics across the continent. New hydrological insights for the region Validation against eddy covariance flux tower observations at eight representative sites confirmed that VegET v2 accurately reproduces the seasonal dynamics of observed ETa, achieving a correlation (r) of 0.8 and an RMSE of 25 mm month⁻¹ —accuracy that is comparable to or higher than accuracies of satellite-based products MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM. This study represents one of the first Africa-wide hydrological simulations of ETa, extending the VegET model beyond basin-scale applications. Intercomparisons reveal that VegET aligns closely with MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM in humid and tropical regions (r = 0.80–0.90; RMSE < 20 mm month⁻¹), while greater discrepancies appear in arid and semi-arid zones, where WaPOR tends to overestimate ETa (RMSE ≥ 28 mm month⁻¹). Despite these differences, VegET effectively captures spatial and temporal ETa variability across rainfed croplands, forests, and savannas, supporting its utility in regional water balance assessments, water accounting, and drought monitoring. A key application of VegET v2 is the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), derived by integrating VegET-based ETa with potential evapotranspiration (PET) to quantify water stress. ETDI successfully captured major drought episodes across Africa, including persistent Sahelian and southern African dry spells, the 2020–2021 winter drought in the Maghreb, and the 2018–2019 austral summer drought in southern Africa, while identifying positive anomalies over central Africa indicative of recurrent wetness. These results underscore VegET’s capability as a hydrologically consistent, operational tool for continental ETa monitoring and drought assessment, offering support for basin-scale water balance studies, food security planning, and climate resilience across Africa’s diverse hydrological environments.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies↗

USGS2017

Widespread legacy brine contamination from oil production reduces survival of chorus frog larvae

Advances in drilling techniques have facilitated a rapid increase in hydrocarbon extraction from energy shales, including the Williston Basin in central North America. This area overlaps with the Prairie Pothole Region, a region densely populated with wetlands that provide numerous ecosystem services. Historical (legacy) disposal practices often released saline co-produced waters (brines) with high chloride concentrations, affecting wetland water quality directly or persisting in sediments. Despite the potential threat of brine contamination to aquatic habitats, there has been little research into its ecological effects. We capitalized on a gradient of legacy brine-contaminated wetlands in northeast Montana to conduct laboratory experiments to assess variation in survival of larval Boreal Chorus Frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ) reared on sediments from 3 local wetlands and a control source. To help provide environmental context for the experiment, we also measured chloride concentrations in 6 brine-contaminated wetlands in our study area, including the 2 contaminated sites used for sediment exposures. Survival of frog larvae during 46- and 55-day experiments differed by up to 88% among sediment sources (Site Model) and was negatively correlated with potential chloride exposure (Chloride Model). Five of the 6 contaminated wetlands exceeded the U.S. EPA acute benchmark for chloride in freshwater (860 mg/L) and all exceeded the chronic benchmark (230 mg/L). However, the Wetland Site model explained more variation in survival than the Chloride Model, suggesting that chloride concentration alone does not fully reflect the threat of contamination to aquatic species. Because the profiles of brine-contaminated sediments are complex, further surveys and experiments are needed across a broad range of conditions, especially where restoration or remediation actions have reduced brine-contamination. Information provided by this study can help quantify potential ecological threats and help land managers prioritize conservation strategies as part of responsible and sustainable energy development.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Investigating effects of climate-induced changes in water temperature and diet on mercury concentrations in an Arctic freshwater forage fish

The amount of mercury (Hg) in Arctic lake food webs is, and will continue to be, affected by rapid, ongoing climate change. At warmer temperatures, fish require more energy to sustain growth; changes in their metabolic rates and consuming prey with potentially higher Hg concentrations could result in increased Hg accumulation. To examine the potential implications of climate warming on forage fish Hg accumulation in Arctic lakes, we quantified growth and Hg accumulation in Ninespine Stickleback Pungitius pungitius under different temperature and diet scenarios using bioenergetics models. Four scenarios were considered that examined the role of climate, diet, climate × diet, and climate × diet × elevated prey Hg. As expected, annual fish growth increased with warmer temperatures, but growth rates and Hg accumulation were largely diet dependent. Compared to current growth rates of 0.3 g⋅y −1 , fish growth increased at least 200% for fish consuming energy-dense benthic prey and decreased at least 40% for fish consuming pelagic prey. Compared to baseline levels, the Hg burden per kilocalorie of Ninespine Stickleback declined up to 43% with benthic consumption – indicating strong somatic growth dilution – but no more than 4% with pelagic consumption; elevated prey Hg concentrations led to moderate Hg declines in benthic-foraging fish and Hg increases in pelagic-foraging fish. Bioenergetics models demonstrated the complex interaction of water temperature, growth, prey proportions, and prey Hg concentrations that respond to climate change. Further work is needed to resolve mechanisms and rates linking climate change to Hg availability and uptake in Arctic freshwater systems.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Fine-grained linings of leveed channels facilitate runout of granular flows

Catastrophic dense granular flows, such as occur in rock avalanches, debris flows and pyroclastic flows, move as fully shearing mixtures that have approximately 60 vol.% solids and tend to segregate to form coarse-grained fronts and leveed channels. Levees restrict spreading of unconfined flows and form as coarse particles that become concentrated in the top of the flow are transported to the front and then advect to the sides in the flow head. Channels from which most material has drained away down slope are commonly lined with fine-grained deposit, widely thought to remain from the tail of the waning flow. We show how segregation in experimental dense flows of carborundum or sand (300–425 μm) mixed with spherical fine ballotini (150–250 μm), on rough slopes of 27–29°, produces fine-grained channel linings that are deposited with the levees, into which they grade laterally. Maximum runout distance is attained with mixtures containing 30–40% sand, just sufficient to segregate and form levees that are adequately robust to restrict the spreading attributable to the low-friction fines. Resin impregnation and serial sectioning of deliberately arrested experimental flows shows how fines-lined levees form from the flow head; the flows create their own stable ‘conduit’ entirely from the front, which in a geophysical context can play an important mechanistic role in facilitating runout. The flow self-organization ensures that low-friction fines at the base of the segregated channel flow shear over fine-grained substrate in the channel, thus reducing frictional energy losses. We propose that in pyroclastic flows and debris flows, which have considerable mobility attributable to pore-fluid pressures, such fine-grained flow-contact zones form similarly and not only reduce frictional energy losses but also reduce flow–substrate permeability so as to enhance pore-fluid pressure retention. Thus the granular flow self-organization that produces fine-grained channel linings can be an important factor in facilitating long runout of catastrophic geophysical flows on the low slopes (few degrees) of depositional fans and aprons around mountains and volcanoes.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2018

Testing for the ‘predictability’ of dynamically triggered earthquakes in Geysers Geothermal Field

The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is ‘predictable’ or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily ‘predictable’ in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock–aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to ‘predict’ what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

California↗

USGS2020

Investigating the effects of broad ion beam milling to sedimentary organic matter: Surface flattening or heat-induced aromatization and condensation?

Previous work has proposed transfer of kinetic heat energy from low-energy broad ion beam (BIB) milling causes thermal alteration of sedimentary organic matter, resulting in increases of organic matter reflectance. Whereas, other studies have suggested the organic matter reflectance increase from BIB milling is due to decreased surface roughness. To test if reflectance increases to sedimentary organic matter (vitrinite) caused by BIB milling were related to molecular aromatization and condensation, Raman and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopies were used to evaluate potential compositional changes in the same vitrinite locations pre- and post-BIB milling. The same locations also were examined by atomic force microscopy (AFM) to determine topographic changes caused by BIB milling (as quantified by the areal root-mean-square roughness parameter S q ). Samples consisted of four medium volatile bituminous coals. A non-aggressive BIB milling approach was used with conditions of 5 min, 4 keV, 15°incline, 360° rotation at 25 rpm and 100% focus (1.5 kV discharge; ∼100 μA). This gentle BIB milling caused vitrinite reflectance (VR o ) increases of 12 to 36% of the original values determined optically before milling (average 26% increase). When molecular proxies from FTIR (A- and C-factor, branching ratio) were plotted against each other for the same vitrinite locations pre- and post-milling, mean data points for each sample generally lie within error of a 1:1 line. Likewise, mean Raman thermal proxy [full-width half maximum of G-band (G-FWHM), Raman band separation (RBS) and D1/G band intensity ratio] values were similar for pre- and post-milled locations, also plotting within error of a 1:1 line. AFM confirms the majority (24 of 36) of pre- and post-ion milled surface pairs were smoother (lower S q values) after BIB milling. These results are interpreted to indicate VR o increase induced by the gentle BIB milling conditions used in this study is an effect of decreased diffuse reflectance due to flatter surfaces, causing more photons to reflect directly back to the detector. Little evidence was observed for molecular aromatization and condensation of vitrinite molecules following BIB milling (with the conditions used). The presence of milling-induced artifacts, including differential milling effects dependent on location and the development of self-organized patterned structures, indicate much work remains in standardization of BIB milling before its promulgation as a routine sample preparation technique for organic petrography. These results provide better understanding of anthropogenic-induced changes to geological samples caused by the now widespread adoption of BIB milling as a disruptive innovation in sample preparation.

Fuel↗

USGS2019

Kinetics of elemental sulfur reduction by petroleum hydrocarbons and the implications for hydrocarbon thermal chemical alteration

Although sulfur-containing compounds are known to play a significant role in the diagenic and catagenic processes that generate oil and gas, relatively little is known about the kinetics of reactions between elemental S and petroleum hydrocarbons. To investigate this subject, a series of closed-system pyrolysis experiments using paraffin, a low-sulfur oil, and a high-sulfur oil with and without elemental S were conducted, and first-order chemical kinetics were fit to the experimental results. The average value for the activation energy required to reduce elemental S to H 2 S and to thermochemically alter higher molecular weight hydrocarbons to methane was calculated to be 193 kJ mol -1 (46 kcal mol -1 ). The results of this study demonstrate that under typical geologic conditions the rate of reduction of elemental S to H 2 S by petroleum hydrocarbons is quite rapid. The maximum time for substantial amounts of elemental S to persist in contact with petroleum hydrocarbons is estimated to be no more than a few million years in cool reservoirs (e.g., <80 °C), and in hotter reservoirs (e.g., >120 °C) the half-life of elemental S may be as short as hundreds of years. Additionally, the presence of elemental S substantially lowers the onset temperature of hydrocarbon thermal chemical alteration (TCA). The activation energy for TCA of a low-sulfur oil to generate methane is estimated to be lowered by 92 kJ mol -1 (22 kcal mol -1 ) due to the presence of elemental sulfur. Consequently, the presence of elemental S in petroleum reservoirs is expected to lower the thermal stability of oil and decrease the maximum depth at which oil occurs within a basin (thermal deadline). The observed acceleration of hydrocarbon TCA is possibly due to organic sulfur compounds (e.g., thiols and sulfides) that form through the reaction of H 2 S or polysulfides with hydrocarbons and subsequently thermally degrade leading to the formation of sulfur radicals that in turn enhance TCA reactions.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2019

Temperature-dependent variations in mineralogy, major element chemistry and the stable isotopes of boron, lithium and chlorine resulting from hydration of rhyolite glass: Constraints from hydrothermal experiments at 150 to 350°C and 25 MPa

Rhyolite-hosted hydrothermal systems in the continental crust contain valuable energy and mineral resources that make them of special interest across several scientific disciplines. Despite extensive research on these systems, the temperature-dependence of chemical reactions between host rocks and aqueous-rich fluids and the mineralogical transformations resulting from these reactions are not well quantified. To expand our understanding of the controlling processes operating in these systems, we carried out seven laboratory experiments in which rhyolite was reacted with deionized water at 150 °C to 350 °C and 25 MPa. An additional experiment at 200 °C was carried out to examine the effect of dissolved CO 2 on the reactions. The overarching goal of this experimental study was to provide new insights on the temperature-dependence of water-rock interaction in continental hydrothermal systems. We applied a wide range of chemical, isotopic and mineralogical methods to analyze the reacted rhyolite and waters, and the major observations are: (1) the rhyolite progressively hydrates with increasing temperature between 150 °C to a maximum of 8.2 wt% H 2 O at 275 °C; hydration then decreases until 350 °C in conjunction with the destruction of the rhyolite glass and crystallization of secondary mineral phases; (2) the ratio of molecular water (H 2 O m ) to hydroxyl (OH − ) of the water that is dissolved in the reacted rhyolite decreases from ∼7 at 150 °C to ∼4 at 250 °C; (3) the main secondary minerals formed are the zeolite ferrierite (T ≥ 275 °C); biotite, albite and cristobalite mainly form at higher experimental temperatures (T ≥ 300 °C); (4) the reacted waters are nearly saturated with respect to amorphous silica; (5) at temperatures ≥ 275 °C nearly all the chlorine is leached into solution; (6) fluorine leaching from the rhyolite gradually increases between 150 °C and 250 °C, but then gradually decreases at higher temperatures and is incorporated into a secondary mineral phase; (7) dissolved CO 2 in the water enhances alkali metal cation leaching from the rhyolite; and (8) calculated Na-K and silica geothermometer temperatures differ from the experimental temperatures by varying amounts. In addition, apart from some small lithium isotope fractionation at temperatures ≤ 250 °C, the stable isotopes of boron, lithium and chlorine do not fractionate during rhyolite-water reactions, and the stable isotope compositions of these species in the reacted water are similar to those in the reactant rhyolite. These results provide new insights for a broad range of applications, including quantifying processes involving rhyolite glass hydration (obsidian hydration dating, perlite formation and discriminating secondary from magmatic water in rhyolitic matrix-glass of volcanic pyroclasts), for geothermal energy and mineral deposit exploration and for monitoring volcanoes.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2017

Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider reef flat-fronted seaward shorelines became more accretive as all oceanographic forcing parameters increased in magnitude and exhibited large run-up increases following increasing wave heights. Island end shorelines became subject to increased flooding, erosion at Wake, and accretion at Midway with SLR. Under future conditions, windward and leeward islands are projected to become thinner as ocean facing and lagoonal shorelines erode, with leeward islands becoming more elongate. Island shorelines will change dramatically over the next century as SLR and altered wave climates drive new erosional regimes. It is vital to the sustainability of island communities that the relative magnitudes of these effects are addressed when planning for projected future climates.

Midway Atoll, Wake Atoll↗

USGS2021

The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources, it is critical to understand the impacts of both short-term climate variability and long-term climate impacts across the varied coastal settings of California. This study is the first to quantify the coastal response for one of the strongest El Niño events in the historical record across the coast of California through the analysis of nearshore wave conditions and seasonal beach changes for 8000 shore-normal transects. Through the analysis of pre- and post- El Niño LiDAR, we find that that central and northern California experienced the most sandy beach shoreline retreat/erosion during the El Niño winter, with a mean of 45.7 m of erosion (96% of beaches) in central California, a mean of 25.5 m of erosion (89% of beaches) in northern California, and a mean of 9.7 m of erosion (79% of beaches) in southern California. These patterns are compared to LiDAR and satellite-derived long-term shoreline change rates, in which southern California and central California beaches are moderately accreting, while northern California is eroding at an average of 79 cm per year. A significant correlation is found between cumulative wave energy flux and shoreline change during the El Niño winter across the state of California. Although local beach response during the El Niño winter was highly variable, heightened erosion was observed at river mouths and on the southern side of structures impeding littoral drift, with accretion observed on the northern side of these structures. These erosional patterns, driven by a northerly wave direction anomaly, contrast those of classic El Niño events such as the 1982–.83 and 1997–98 events, where more southerly storm tracks and southerly wave directions were key factors controlling shoreline behavior, and may indicate a shift in El Niño storm patterns driven by climate change.

California↗

USGS2012

Differential melt scaling for oblique impacts on terrestrial planets

Analytical estimates of melt volumes produced by a given projectile and contained in a given impact crater are derived as a function of impact velocity, impact angle, planetary gravity, target and projectile densities, and specific internal energy of melting. Applications to impact events and impact craters on the Earth, Moon, and Mars are demonstrated and discussed. The most probable oblique impact (45°) produces &sim;1.6 times less melt volume than a vertical impact, and &sim;1.6 and 3.7 times more melt volume than impacts with 30° and 15° trajectories, respectively. The melt volume for a particular crater diameter increases with planetary gravity, so a crater on Earth should have more melt than similar-size craters on Mars and the Moon. The melt volume for a particular projectile diameter does not depend on gravity, but has a strong dependence on impact velocity, so the melt generated by a given projectile on the Moon is significantly larger than on Mars. Higher surface temperatures and geothermal gradients increase melt production, as do lower energies of melting. Collectively, the results imply thinner central melt sheets and a smaller proportion of melt particles in impact breccias on the Moon and Mars than on Earth. These effects are illustrated in a comparison of the Chicxulub crater on Earth, linked to the Cretaceous–Tertiary mass extinction, Gusev crater on Mars, where the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit landed, and Tsiolkovsky crater on the Moon. The results are comparable to those obtained from field and spacecraft observations, other analytical expressions, and hydrocode simulations.

Icarus↗

USGS2015

Enhanced understanding of ectoparasite: host trophic linkages on coral reefs through stable isotope analysis

Parasitism, although the most common type of ecological interaction, is usually ignored in food web models and studies of trophic connectivity. Stable isotope analysis is widely used in assessing the flow of energy in ecological communities and thus is a potentially valuable tool in understanding the cryptic trophic relationships mediated by parasites. In an effort to assess the utility of stable isotope analysis in understanding the role of parasites in complex coral-reef trophic systems, we performed stable isotope analysis on three common Caribbean reef fish hosts and two kinds of ectoparasitic isopods: temporarily parasitic gnathiids ( Gnathia marleyi ) and permanently parasitic cymothoids ( Anilocra ) . To further track the transfer of fish-derived carbon (energy) from parasites to parasite consumers, gnathiids from host fish were also fed to captive Pederson shrimp ( Ancylomenes pedersoni ) for at least 1 month. Parasitic isopods had δ 13 C and δ 15 N values similar to their host, comparable with results from the small number of other host–parasite studies that have employed stable isotopes. Adult gnathiids were enriched in 15 N and depleted in 13 C relative to juvenile gnathiids, providing insights into the potential isotopic fractionation associated with blood-meal assimilation and subsequent metamorphosis. Gnathiid-fed Pedersen shrimp also had δ 13 C values consistent with their food source and enriched in 15 N as predicted due to trophic fractionation. These results further indicate that stable isotopes can be an effective tool in deciphering cryptic feeding relationships involving parasites and their consumers, and the role of parasites and cleaners in carbon transfer in coral-reef ecosystems specifically.

Lameshur Bay, St. John, Virgin Islands↗

USGS2025

Reaction kinetics and accelerant effects of sulfides in early mature hydrocarbon generation using hydrous pyrolysis

Hydrocarbon generation in organic-rich sediments is influenced by the molecular organic composition and relative abundance of associated minerals. Certain mineral-derived elements act as catalysts and reaction intermediaries, facilitating early-stage hydrocarbon formation in potential source rocks. This study investigated the role of sulfur contributed from pyrite as an accelerant in thermal reaction, focusing on its effects on early maturation and consequent hydrocarbon generation from gilsonite (low-sulfur solid petroleum). Hydrous pyrolysis (HP) experiments were conducted on mixtures of gilsonite and pyrite in varying ratios (1:0.1, 1:0.5, 1:1, 1:2, and 1:10 w/w gilsonite:pyrite) at 320, 350, and 370 °C for 72 h. Untreated and thermally altered residues were analyzed using solid bitumen reflectance (BR o , %), total organic carbon (TOC) content, programmed temperature pyrolysis, scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) to evaluate the potential accelerant role of pyritic sulfur in hydrocarbon formation. The results show HP residues at 320 and 350 °C with greater pyrite concentrations had higher BR o , while reflectance values were similar in the 370 °C residues, regardless of pyrite concentration, suggesting enhanced reaction at lower thermal conditions. Increasing pyrite content systematically decreased hydrogen index (HI) values while increasing the transformation ratio (TR) and production index (PI), indicating enhanced conversion of organic matter to hydrocarbons with increasing pyrite concentrations. Gas yields increased with pyrite addition, particularly at 350 °C, confirming secondary cracking effects. However, gas production stabilized or declined at higher pyrite loadings (1:10), suggesting alternative reaction pathways such as coke formation. Our data indicate the presence of pyrite lowers the activation energy for thermal cracking, shifting peak experimental hydrocarbon generation temperatures downward by 20–30 °C, with the most pronounced accelerant effects observed at moderate pyrite concentrations (1:0.5 and 1:1). The thermodynamic framework reveals that pyrite stability is influenced by experimental conditions, with pyrrhotite formation favored in the presence of gilsonite due to reduced oxygen fugacity. Pyrite transformation to pyrrhotite, as observed through XRD, SEM-EDS, and predicted by thermodynamic data, further supports the accelerant role of S, as pyrrhotite exhibits a higher hydrogen transfer potential, promoting early oil generation. These findings highlight the importance of pyrite in modulating hydrocarbon generation pathways in organic-rich systems.

Journal of Analytical and Applied Pyrolysis↗