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At least 1,459 records · Page 81Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Beyond presence mapping: Predicting fractional cover of non-native vegetation in Sentinel-2 imagery using an ensemble of MaxEnt models

Non-native species maps are important tools for understanding and managing biological invasions. We demonstrate a novel approach to extend presence modeling to map fractional cover (FC) of non-native yellow sweet clover Melilotus officinalis in the Northern Great Plains, USA. We used ensembles of MaxEnt models to map FC across landscapes from satellite imagery trained from regional aerial imagery that was trained by local unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery. Clover cover from field surveys and classified UAV imagery were nearly identical ( n = 22, R 2 = 0.99). Two classified UAV images provided training data to map clover presence with MaxEnt and National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial imagery. We binned cover predictions from NAIP imagery within each Sentinel-2 pixel into eight cover classes to create pure (100%) and FC (20%–95%) training data and modeled each class separately using MaxEnt and Sentinel-2 imagery. We mapped pure clover with one classification threshold and compared its performance to 15 candidate maps that included FC predictions outside pure predictions. Each FC map represented alternative combinations of five MaxEnt thresholds and three approaches to assign cover to pixels with multiple predictions from the FC ensemble. Evaluations of performance with independent datasets revealed maps including FC corresponded to field ( n = 32, R 2 range: 0.39–0.68) and UAV ( n = 20, R 2 range: 0.61–0.84) data better than pure clover maps ( R 2 = 0.15 and 0.31, respectively). Overall, the pure clover map predicted 3.2% cover, whereas the three best performing FC maps predicted 6.6%–8.0% cover. Including FC predictions increased accuracy and cover predictions which can improve ecological understanding of invasions. Our method allows efficient FC mapping for vegetative species discernible in UAV imagery and may be especially useful for mapping rare, irruptive or patchily distributed species with poor representation in field data, which challenges landscape-level mapping.

Montana, South Dakota↗
USGS2023

High-resolution thermal imagery reveals how interactions between crown structure and genetics shape plant temperature

Understanding interactions between environmental stress and genetic variation is crucial to predict the adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Leaf temperature is both a driver and a responsive indicator of plant physiological response to thermal stress, and methods to monitor it are needed. Foliar temperatures vary across leaf to canopy scales and are influenced by genetic factors, challenging efforts to map and model this critical variable. Thermal imagery collected using unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) offers an innovative way to measure thermal variation in plants across landscapes at leaf-level resolutions. We used a UAS equipped with a thermal camera to assess temperature variation among genetically distinct populations of big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), a keystone plant species that is the focus of intensive restoration efforts throughout much of western North America. We completed flights across a growing season in a sagebrush common garden to map leaf temperature relative to subspecies and cytotype, physiological phenotypes of plants, and summer heat stress. Our objectives were to (1) determine whether leaf-level stomatal conductance corresponds with changes in crown temperature; (2) quantify genetic (i.e., subspecies and cytotype) contributions to variation in leaf and crown temperatures; and (3) identify how crown structure, solar radiation, and subspecies-cytotype relate to leaf-level temperature. When considered across the whole season, stomatal conductance was negatively, non-linearly correlated with crown-level temperature derived from UAS. Subspecies identity best explained crown-level temperature with no difference observed between cytotypes. However, structural phenotypes and microclimate best explained leaf-level temperature. These results show how fine-scale thermal mapping can decouple the contribution of genetic, phenotypic, and microclimate factors on leaf temperature dynamics. As climate-change-induced heat stress becomes prevalent, thermal UAS represents a promising way to track plant phenotypes that emerge from gene-by-environment interactions.

Idaho↗
USGS2017

Weather radar data correlate to hail-induced mortality in grassland birds

Small-bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail-induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail-induced mortality. We quantify the relationship between the probability of nests destroyed by hail and measured Level-III Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data, including atmospheric base reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail and maximum estimated azimuthal wind shear. On 22 June 2014, a hailstorm in northern Colorado destroyed 102 out of 203 known nests within our research site. Lark bunting ( Calamospiza melanocorys ) nests comprised most of the sample ( n = 186). Destroyed nests were more likely to be found in areas of higher storm intensity, and distributions of NEXRAD variables differed between failed and surviving nests. For 133 ground nests where nest-site vegetation was measured, we examined the ameliorative influence of woody vegetation, nest cover and vegetation density by comparing results for 13 different logistic regression models incorporating the independent and additive effects of weather and vegetation variables. The most parsimonious model used only the interactive effect of hail size and wind shear to predict the probability of nest survival, and the data provided no support for any of the models without this predictor. We conclude that vegetation structure may not mitigate mortality from severe hailstorms and that weather radar products can be used remotely to estimate potential for hail mortality of nesting grassland birds. These insights will improve the efficacy of grassland bird population models under predicted climate change scenarios.

Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2023

Forming regional soil carbon networks to support effective climate change solutions

Sequestration and storage of organic carbon (C) in soil is an essential component of climate change mitigation and fundamental in promoting the health and climate resilience of soils. Sources of available soil C data are increasing, which complicates efforts to consolidate the data in forms that can be readily used by stakeholders. Spatial and temporal gaps in data availability also limit the quantification of changes in soil C through space and time. Improved coordination among producers and users of soil C data would provide data compatibility at the spatial and temporal resolution required for C monitoring, accounting, and verification of policy implementation. These challenges can be addressed by forming regional-scale networks to coordinate the collection and use of soil C data by promoting consistency in methods, collecting new data to fill critical gaps, integrating existing data from multiple sources, and providing data interpretation to stakeholders in readily usable forms. Forming networks in regions such as the Northeastern United States would require close coordinationwith existing programs that are involved in collecting or aggregating soil C within that region. Network formation could be accomplished by (1) producing a planning document, (2) designing a network structure tailored to the region, and (3) acquiring the institutional support to establish and operate the network. Increasing the availability and usage of soil C data through regional networks would support the development of climate change solutions and increased ecosystem services through land management efforts that increase soil C storage.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗
USGS2018

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi , which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which maximizes the use of available resources. Increased implementation of approaches that consider detection error promote ecological advancements and conservation and management decisions that are better informed.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2018

Characterization of Sea Lamprey stream entry using dual‐frequency identification sonar

Effective methods to control invasive Sea Lampreys Petromyzon marinus in the Laurentian Great Lakes often rely on knowledge of the timing of the Sea Lamprey spawning migration, which has previously been characterized using data gathered from traps. Most assessment traps are located many kilometers upstream from the river mouth, so less is known about when Sea Lampreys enter spawning streams and which environmental cues trigger their transition from lakes to rivers. To decide how to develop barriers and traps that target Sea Lampreys when they enter a stream, the stream entry of Sea Lampreys into a Lake Huron tributary during 2 years was assessed using dual‐frequency identification sonar (DIDSON). Sea Lampreys entered the stream in low densities when temperatures first reached 4°C, which was up to 6 weeks and a mean of 4 weeks earlier than when they were first captured in traps located upstream. The probability of stream entry was significantly affected by stream temperature and discharge, and stream entry timing peaked when stream temperatures rose to 12°C and discharge was high. Examination of the entry at a finer temporal resolution (i.e., minutes) indicated that Sea Lampreys did not exhibit social behavior (e.g., shoaling) during stream entry. Our findings indicate that Sea Lampreys may be vulnerable to alternative trap types near river mouths and hydraulic challenges associated with traditional traps. Also, seasonal migration barriers near stream mouths may need to be installed soon after ice‐out to effectively block the entire adult Sea Lamprey cohort from upstream spawning habitat.

Michigan↗
USGS2018

An interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) habitat suitability model to identify overwinter conditions for coregonine whitefishes in Arctic lagoons

Lagoons provide critical habitats for many fishes, including coregonine whitefishes, which are a mainstay in many subsistence fisheries of rural communities in Arctic Alaska. Despite their importance, little is known about the overwintering habits of whitefishes in Arctic Alaska due to the challenges associated with sampling during winter. We developed a habitat suitability (HS) model to understand the potential range of physical conditions that whitefishes experience during the Arctic winter, using three indicator lagoons that represent a range of environmental characteristics. The HS model was built using a three-step approach. First, remote sensing that uses interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) identified areas of floating and bottomfast ice. Second, through in-field ground-truthing, we confirmed the presence and quality of liquid water (water depth, temperature, and dissolved oxygen) beneath the ice cover. Third, we assessed the suitability of that liquid water as habitat for whitefishes based on published literature and expert interpretation of water quality parameters. InSAR determined that 0, 65.4, and 88.2% of the three lagoons were composed of floating ice corresponding with areas of liquid water beneath a layer of ice. The HS model indicated that all three lagoons had reduced suitability as whitefish habitat in winter than in summer due to the loss of habitat because of the presence of bottomfast ice and a reduction in the quality of liquid water due to cold temperatures, high salinities, and low dissolved oxygen levels. However, only the shallowest lagoon had lethal conditions and zero suitability as whitefish habitat. The methods outlined here provide a simple, cost-effective method to identify habitats that consistently provide critical winter habitat and integrate remote sensing in a HS model framework.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Assessment of operational and structural factors influencing performance of fish collectors in forebays of high-head dams

Providing efficient downstream passage is critical for improving populations of migratory fishes in impounded river systems. High‐head dams, such as those used for water storage or flood‐risk management, pose unique passage challenges requiring unique solutions. Systems to collect fish in dam forebays (“forebay collectors”) for transport to downstream release locations have been used at some high‐head dams in the western United States since the 1950s. Collection efficiency of these facilities has ranged from nearly 0% to 100%, suggesting the need for a better understanding of factors affecting performance in these complex environments if they are to be designed and deployed at new sites. We compiled information on environmental, structural, and performance characteristics of seven existing forebay collectors to quantify factors affecting their performance based on a meta‐analysis using a data set containing 52 separate collection estimates. Covariates included species type (steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha, Coho Salmon O. kisutch, and Sockeye Salmon O. nerka), collector inflow, collector entrance area, relative size of the dam forebay, and whether or not nets were used to enhance collection. We found that inflow, the use of lead nets, the size of the collector entrance area, the relative size of the dam forebay, and the interaction between collector entrance and forebay areas were significant predictors of collection performance. There was also evidence for differences between species. Chinook Salmon exhibited the lowest collection rates among the projects we examined, while steelhead collection rates were highest. These results provide guidance to design more efficient forebay collectors and improve the success of existing systems.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2019

Integrating fish assemblage data, modeled stream temperatures, and thermal tolerance metrics to develop thermal guilds for water temperature regulation: Wyoming case study

Many streams are experiencing increased average temperatures due to anthropogenic activity and climate change. As a result, surface water temperature regulation is critical for preserving a diverse stream fish species assemblage. The development of temperature regulations has generally been based on laboratory measurements of individual species' thermal tolerances rather than community response to temperature in the field, despite multiple limitations of using laboratory data for this purpose. Using field data to develop temperature regulations may avoid some of the limitations of laboratory data, but the use of field data comes with additional challenges that prevent its widespread adoption. We used Wyoming stream fish assemblages as a case study to examine the feasibility of addressing the limitations of field and laboratory data through a hybrid approach that integrates both types of data to classify species into thermal guilds that can potentially inform regulatory standards. We identified coldwater, coolwater, and warmwater classes of sites with modeled mean August temperatures of <15.5, 15.5–19.9, and >19.9°C, respectively. We used species' associations with these temperature classes to place species into site‐groups. Finally, we used standardized laboratory measures of species' upper acute and chronic thermal tolerances to identify and reclassify species with unusual thermal distributions. Through this process we classified species into five thermal guilds that may be useful for surface water temperature regulation in Wyoming. Our approach addresses the limitations identified for field and laboratory data and demonstrates a framework that could be used for incorporating multiple types of data to develop temperature standards.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Energy depletion and stress levels of Sockeye Salmon migrating at the northern edge of their distribution

The physiological challenge for anadromous fish to migrate upriver is influenced by river temperature, but the impacts of river temperature can be difficult to predict due to an incomplete understanding of how temperature influences migration costs, especially in high‐latitude (>60°N) ecosystems. To assess temperature influences on migrating Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp., we measured heat shock protein 70 (HSP70), as an indicator of cellular stress, and energy content of Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka throughout their upriver migration in the Pilgrim River, Alaska. Although HSP70 was elevated as fish moved to the spawning grounds and was higher in fish with low energy content, HSP70 did not increase with warmer river temperatures. We verified in an experiment that HSP70 abundance in Sockeye Salmon does respond to temperatures above 20.5°C. Over the 4 years of sampling, energy content decreased at similar rates as Sockeye Salmon moved upstream. We expected Sockeye Salmon energy levels would be lower when migrating in warmer river temperatures; however, we found higher energy levels occurred with higher temperatures in the Pilgrim River. We hypothesize that the relationship between temperature and energy content is due to river temperatures often occurring below optimal temperatures for migration. Lower temperatures could be energetically costly or reduce migration rates, both of which would result in lower energy content with cooler temperature. Understanding interactions between environmental drivers and physiological responses will help managers anticipate future changes for Sockeye Salmon at the northern edge of their distribution.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Environmental DNA assays for invasive populations of the Black Carp, Mylopharyngodon piceus, in North America

The Black Carp, Mylopharyngodon piceus, is an increasingly widespread invasive species in North America that threatens freshwater mussel populations. We developed four qPCR assays for detecting environmental DNA (eDNA) from these Black Carp populations. Assays were designed to target four mitochondrial DNA loci and were based on 34 complete mitochondrial genome sequences, including 29 generated in this study from samples obtained in three countries. Assays were validated for taxon specificity with in silico comparisons against archived DNA sequences and with in vitro tests of 41 DNA samples from Black Carp, as well as DNA samples from 30 non‐target fish species, all from the Mississippi River Basin. All four assays were able to detect the DNA of all Black Carp samples and did not exhibit any positive results with DNA from other tested species. Tests conducted in round‐robin fashion among three different laboratories found that all four assays were able to detect DNA at very low template concentrations (limits of detection = 3 copies/qPCR, limits of quantification = 16‐64 copies/qPCR) and, as part of in situ validation, were successful in detecting eDNA from Black Carp in aquaculture ponds. Despite some challenges with other attempts at in situ validation, the assays were also effective in detecting Black Carp eDNA in water samples from a drainage ditch in the upper reaches of the species’ range that was known to contain juvenile Black Carp, as well as in water samples from the Missisippi River and a connected oxbow lake in the lower reaches of the species range.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2020

Book review: Proceedings of the First International Snakehead Symposium

Snakehead fishes (family Channidae) are among the most maligned aquatic invasive species in the USA and some other countries where they have been introduced outside of their native range in Asia and Africa. Nevertheless, snakeheads continue to be widely exploited in the live‐food trade in aquaculture and wild‐capture fisheries, are highly sought by anglers, and are also popular in the aquarium trade (Courtenay and Williams 2004). The Northern Snakehead Channa argus is the most widespread of the three channid species that are currently naturalized in the USA. This species has generated much concern and controversy, a situation that is partly fueled by sensational media coverage and B‐grade science fiction horror films, such as “Frankenfish,” “Snakehead Terror,” and “Snakehead Swamp.” Media reports of snakehead introductions are often replete with provocative terms, such as “vicious,” “villain,” “voracious,” “monster,” “diabolical,” and even “ecological Armageddon.” When snakeheads first appeared in natural waters of the USA, fisheries professionals became increasingly interested in their status. Established populations rapidly expanded in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas, with scattered reports of introduced snakeheads from isolated locations in Hawaii, California, North Carolina, Florida, the Upper Midwest, and New England. In 2002, snakeheads were added to the list of injurious fishes under the Lacey Act, thereby prohibiting their importation or transport across state lines without a permit. This symposium was conceived by the editors and other concerned fisheries professionals of the Mississippi River Basin Panel on Aquatic Invasive Species. The mission of the symposium, held in Alexandria, Virginia, in July 2018, was to bring together experts on snakehead biology and ecology and to synthesize existing information into summary papers. In this book, 35 authors contributed to 15 peer‐reviewed articles that detail the current state of knowledge about snakehead introductions in the USA. Additionally, 16 abstracts are included from meeting presentations that were not accompanied by full‐length manuscripts. Also included is a summary of a facilitated symposium panel discussion featuring eight experts representing state and federal natural resource agencies and private fishing organizations. The book is organized into six sections. In the first section (Distribution), three papers provide an overview of the Channa species introduced into the USA and historical accounts of occurrence and dispersal of the Northern Snakehead in the mid‐Atlantic region and Arkansas. The second section (Biology/Ecology) consists of two articles that examine growth and energetics of Northern Snakehead populations and two papers that investigate diet, diel feeding activity, and movement of this species in the Potomac River drainage. The third section (Monitoring/Response) includes a paper that models range expansion of the Northern Snakehead in the southeastern USA based on occurrence data and environmental conditions. Also included in this section is a paper summarizing an environmental DNA study to assess the status and range of the Bullseye Snakehead C. marulius in southern Florida. The fourth section (Management/Control) is comprised of four papers that address harvest, age and growth, and development of a stock–recruitment model to inform management decisions regarding control and mitigation for Northern Snakehead populations in the greater Chesapeake Bay area. The fifth section (Perspectives) includes a paper on the history of snakehead introductions in Japan and a thought‐provoking social commentary on the human dimensions of Northern Snakehead management. Abstracts in the final section provide brief summaries of a diversity of snakehead studies, including aspects of distribution, ecology, behavior, control and monitoring efforts, public outreach, and pathology. The summary of the panel discussion is an engaging dialogue about the challenges of snakehead management in the context of conflicts regarding snakeheads as injurious versus their value as game and food species. Most of this book is focused on the Northern Snakehead. Much has been done to document snakehead distributions and certain aspects of snakehead biology, such as diets, age, and growth. Less research has been devoted to understanding the ecological impacts of snakeheads to native aquatic communities and ecosystems. This book would have benefited from a chapter summarizing the current systematics and diversity of the Channidae to inform fisheries biologists about the morphological characteristics of the family, approximate numbers of genera and species, and taxonomic instability. Exemplifying the latter, recent molecular and morphological evidence indicates uncertainty regarding identification of the feral snakehead population in Florida (Adamson and Britz 2019). Those authors suggest that this population may have originated from western Thailand, a possibility that could have implications for understanding historical pathways of snakehead introductions into the USA. In comparison with many published AFS symposia, this volume is relatively narrow in scope and lacks cohesive integration. It will primarily be of interest to those fisheries professionals engaged in the study of snakeheads as well as other nonnative species for which there are contrasting social values regarding their management: whether to monitor and attempt control or eradication efforts or to maintain populations for harvest as game or food species. The book should serve to identify information gaps and guide future research.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2022

The importance of phenology and thermal exposure to early life history success of nonnative Smallmouth Bass in the Yellowstone River

Knowledge of potential spread by introduced species is critical to effective management and conservation. The Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu is an example of a fish that has been introduced globally, often spreads after introduction, and has substantial predatory impacts on fish assemblages. Nonnative Smallmouth Bass in the free-flowing Yellowstone River, Montana, have expanded from warmer, downstream sections of river into colder, upstream sections containing socio-economically valuable trout fisheries. We sought insight into mechanisms controlling upstream spread by evaluating whether progressively colder upstream climates physiologically constrained successful recruitment by limiting age-0 growth and preventing overwinter survival (i.e., population establishment). We documented the phenology, growth, and overwinter survival of age-0 Smallmouth Bass across a temperature gradient leading to their upstream extent in the Yellowstone River. The upstream extent of population establishment did not appear limited by water temperature alone. Age-0 body size at the onset of winter did not differ significantly between colder, upstream reaches and warmer, downstream reaches. Instead, the earlier hatch timing exhibited by some age-0 individuals in upstream sections allowed them to experience longer growing seasons than many individuals in downstream sections. This counter-intuitive hatching phenology mediated much of the expected decreases in growth in colder, upstream climates. Furthermore, evidence of successful overwinter survival and simulations of age-0 starvation mortality indicated that age-0 individuals at the upstream extent of their distribution successfully recruited to the age-1 year-class during four consecutive years. However, age-0 individuals were rare or absent throughout the uppermost upstream distribution of adults, suggesting that something other than temperature limits or discourages reproduction farther upstream. Taken together, our results suggest that Smallmouth Bass have not yet reached the thermal limit of their upstream distribution in the Yellowstone River and that future spread may challenge fisheries managers tasked with management of coldwater trout fisheries in this river.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Seasonal spatial ecology of Lake Trout in Lake Erie

Objective Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush are native coldwater apex predators that play an important role in maintaining ecosystem functionality and diversity in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Following population collapses, rehabilitation efforts were widely initiated in the Great Lakes to reestablish self‐sustaining Lake Trout populations. Lake Erie may pose a challenge to these rehabilitation efforts due to limited availability of appropriate oxythermal habitat. Our goal was to investigate seasonal habitat use of adult Lake Trout in Lake Erie to inform management and rehabilitation efforts. Methods We used acoustic telemetry in Lake Erie, which was equipepd with a lake‐wide acoustic receiver grid, to quantify Lake Trout seasonal region occupancy, dispersal distances, bottom depth occupancy, space use extent, and space use overlap. Result We found that 32% of fish tagged in the eastern basin and all fish from the western basin dispersed more than 100 km from their tagging location, which represents a greater proportion of the population moving long distances than what has been previously documented in the Great Lakes. During stratification, Lake Trout were detected almost exclusively in the offshore eastern basin in areas where water depth exceeded 25 m. During nonstratified seasons, fish used other regions of the lake, occupying areas of highly variable depths. During fall, most fish tagged in the eastern basin occupied habitat along the southern shore of the eastern basin. Fish tagged in the western basin returned to this region in the fall of subsequent years despite occupying the offshore eastern basin during stratification and having depth occupancy, home range size, and overlap similar to that of eastern basin‐tagged fish. Fish size was positively correlated with receiver depth during winter and spring, and with home range overlap during spring and summer. Conclusion The results of this study can begin to inform management decisions regarding stocking locations, harvest regulations, and habitat restoration to facilitate the continued rehabilitation of this important native species.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2024

Lake temperature and morphometry shape the thermal composition of recreational fishing catch

Objective Managing freshwater fisheries in warming lakes is challenging because climate change impacts anglers, fish, and their interactions. Methods We integrated recent models of current and future lake temperatures with recreational fisheries catch data from 587 lakes in three north-central U.S. states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) to evaluate how the thermal composition of recreational fisheries catch varied as a function of temperature, ice coverage, and lake morphometry. Result We found that warmwater catch share (WCS), defined as the proportion of fish in recreational angling catch that belonged to the warmwater thermal guild (final temperature preferendum [FTP] > 25°C), increased with average annual lake surface temperature and decreased with survey ice coverage. However, we also found that WCS decreased with increased lake area and depth. Using mid-century (2040–2060) water temperature and ice projections while holding all other variables constant, we predicted that WCS will likely increase as the climate warms but that significant thermal heterogeneity will persist. Conclusion Lakes that are large (>100 ha) and deep (>10 m) and those with cooler (<3700 annual growing degree-days) predicted future temperatures will likely hold thermal refugia for coolwater (FTP = 19–25°C) and coldwater (FTP < 19°C) fish even as average lake temperatures rise, creating the potential for management actions to resist the shift from coolwater to warmwater fisheries. Managers of smaller and more rapidly warming lakes may want to consider strategies that accept or direct emerging warmwater fishing opportunities. We suggest that the most viable path to climate adaptation in landscapes of diverse lakes may be to resist warmwater shifts where possible and to accept or direct the rise of warmwater fishing opportunities where necessary.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Developing a predictive model to identify Sea Lamprey parasitism on Lake Trout using biologgers

Objective Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus remain problematic for Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush restoration in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Fisheries assessments would benefit from knowledge of spatial–temporal patterns of Sea Lamprey parasitism on Lake Trout; however, such patterns are challenging to estimate from wounding rates on caught Lake Trout. Electronic tags have been used to identify distinct fish behaviors (e.g., foraging or spawning) using measurements of acceleration or heart rate. We hypothesized that Sea Lamprey attachment would elicit changes in the heart rate and swimming behavior of Lake Trout. Here, we determined whether tagging devices could record these changes and whether we could accurately predict lamprey attachment on Lake Trout using these recordings. Methods Adult Lake Trout (n = 34) were implanted with acceleration and heart rate tags and then were subjected to Sea Lamprey parasitism within a laboratory setting. Approximately 70 different acceleration and heart rate metrics were collected and tried as predictors of lamprey attachment. The top variables were used to train random forest models and then tried on test data sets. The accuracy of these models was then validated using a jackknife approach. Result Metrics related to body orientation and heart rate were identified as the best predictors of Sea Lamprey attachment. The best models predicted lamprey attachments with high accuracy; however, individual‐level jackknife tests resulted in less accurate cross‐individual prediction and regularly predicted false negatives. These findings may be related to individual variance in the Lake Trout response to attachment, but there was evidence that the shifting of tags after implantation impacted predictive performance, which could be remedied with adjustments during implantation. Conclusions Our study highlights the potential to use tagging devices for quantifying Sea Lamprey attachments on Lake Trout in the wild. Further development appears necessary; however, once improved, these predictive models have the potential to generate field‐based estimates of Sea Lamprey attack rates on Lake Trout.

Transactions of American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2026

Network-wide assessment of soil water content calibration and sensitivity to biomass proxies using cosmic-ray neutron sensing in the Roaring Fork Basin, Colorado

Soil water content (SWC) is a key state variable of the climate system but is often uncertain in water balance monitoring, especially in alpine environments. SWC measurements can be challenging in alpine environments due to the topography and rocky soils. In 2022, the US Geological Survey's Next Generation Water Observing System Program began research to evaluate water balance monitoring technologies, including cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS). This work evaluated the uncertainty resulting from network-wide calibration of CRNS for SWC monitoring in an alpine watershed and investigated the stability of the calibration parameters across space and time, focusing on potential influence of biomass dynamics. Fifteen stations with moderated and unmoderated (bare) CRNS were deployed and made operational within the Roaring Fork Basin in west-central Colorado. The root mean squared error of the network-wide calibration using the moderated CRNS was 0.042 or 0.047 cm 3 cm −3 , depending on the calibration equation used. Relative SWC dynamics from CRNS were correlated with the in situ probes with a correlation coefficient of 0.91 or 0.87 (depending on calibration equation). We did not find significant relationships between the calibration parameters and stationary site-specific variables. However, the calibration parameters derived from in situ probe SWC dynamics varied over time and were correlated with biomass proxies of cumulative growing degree-day, cumulative growing season index, and bare neutron counts. Future use of the CRNS network can leverage the reliable relative SWC data from network-wide calibration for watershed modeling and continue to research sensitivity of bare neutron measurements to biomass dynamics.

Colorado↗
USGS2021

Aquatic ecosystem metabolism as a tool in environmental management

Recent advances in high-frequency environmental sensing and statistical approaches have greatly expanded the breadth of knowledge regarding aquatic ecosystem metabolism - the measurement and interpretation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). Aquatic scientists are poised to take advantage of widely available datasets and freely-available modeling tools to apply functional information gained through ecosystem metabolism to better environmental management. Historically, several logistical and conceptual factors have limited the widespread application of metabolism in management settings. Benefitting from new instrumental and modeling tools, it is now relatively straightforward to extend routine monitoring of dissolved oxygen (DO) to dynamic measures of aquatic ecosystem function (GPP & ER) and key physical processes such as gas exchange with the atmosphere (G). We review the current approaches for using DO data in environmental management with a focus on the United States, but briefly describe management frameworks in Europe and Canada. We highlight new applications of diel DO data and metabolism in regulatory settings and explore how they can be applied to managing and monitoring ecosystems. We then review existing data types and provide a short guide for implementing field measurements and modeling of ecosystem metabolic processes using currently available tools. Finally, we discuss research needed to overcome current conceptual limitations of applying metabolism in management settings. Despite challenges associated with modeling metabolism in rivers and lakes, rapid developments in this field have moved us closer to utilizing real-time estimates of GPP, ER and G to improve the assessment and management of environmental change.

WIREs Water↗