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At least 1,459 records · Page 81Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Microsatellite variation and rare alleles in a bottlenecked Hawaiian Islands endemic: implications for reintroductions

Conservation of genetic biodiversity in endangered wildlife populations is an important challenge to address since the loss of alleles and genetic drift may influence future adaptability. Reintroduction aims to re-establish species to restored or protected ecosystems; however, moving a subset of individuals may result in loss of gene variants during the management-induced bottleneck (i.e. translocation). The endangered Laysan teal Anas laysanensis was once widespread across the Hawaiian archipelago, but became isolated on Laysan Island (415 ha) from the mid-1800s until 2004 when a translocation to Midway Atoll (596 ha) was undertaken to reduce extinction risks. We compared genetic diversity and quantified variation at microsatellite loci sampled from 230 individuals from the wild populations at Laysan (1999 to 2009) and Midway (2007 to 2010; n = 133 Laysan, n = 96 Midway birds). We identified polymorphic markers by screening nuclear microsatellites (N = 83). Low nuclear variation was detected, consistent with the species’ insular isolation and historical bottleneck. Six of 83 microsatellites were polymorphic. We found limited but similar estimates of allelic richness (2.58 alleles per locus) and heterozygosity within populations. However, 2 rare alleles found in the Laysan source population were not present in Midway’s reintroduced population, and a unique allele was discovered in an individual on Midway. Differentiation between island populations was low ( F ST = 0.6%), but statistically significant. Our results indicate that genetic drift had little effect on offspring generations 3 to 6 yr post-release and demonstrate the utility of using known founder events to help quantify genetic capture during translocations and to inform management decisions.

Endangered Species Research↗
USGS2024

Preparing for a Bsal invasion into North America has improved multi-sector readiness

Western palearctic salamander susceptibility to the skin disease caused by the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) was recognized in 2014, eliciting concerns for a potential novel wave of amphibian declines following the B. dendrobatidis (Bd) chytridiomycosis global pandemic. Although Bsal had not been detected in North America, initial experimental trials supported the heightened susceptibility of caudate amphibians to Bsal chytridiomycosis, recognizing the critical threat this pathogen poses to the North American salamander biodiversity hotspot. Here, we take stock of 10 years of research, collaboration, engagement, and outreach by the North American Bsal Task Force. We summarize main knowledge and conservation actions to both forestall and respond to Bsal invasion into North America. We address the questions: what have we learned; what are current challenges; and are we ready for a more effective reaction to Bsal’s eventual detection? We expect that the many contributions to preemptive planning accrued over the past decade will pay dividends in amphibian conservation effectiveness and can inform future responses to other novel wildlife diseases and extreme threats.

North America↗
USGS2021

Testing a generalizable machine learning workflow for aquatic invasive species on Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in northwest Montana

Biological invasions are accelerating worldwide, causing major ecological and economic impacts in aquatic ecosystems. The urgent decision-making needs of invasive species managers can be better met by the integration of biodiversity big data with large-domain models and data-driven products. Remotely sensed data products can be combined with existing invasive species occurrence data via machine learning models to provide the proactive spatial risk analysis necessary for implementing coordinated and agile management paradigms across large scales. We present a workflow that generates rapid spatial risk assessments on aquatic invasive species using occurrence data, spatially explicit environmental data, and an ensemble approach to species distribution modeling using five machine learning algorithms. For proof of concept and validation, we tested this workflow using extensive spatial and temporal hybridization and occurrence data from a well-studied, ongoing, and climate-driven species invasion in the upper Flathead River system in northwestern Montana, USA. Rainbow Trout (RBT; Oncorhynchus mykiss), an introduced species in the Flathead River basin, compete and readily hybridize with native Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT; O. clarkii lewisii), and the spread of RBT individuals and their alleles has been tracked for decades. We used remotely sensed and other geospatial data as key environmental predictors for projecting resultant habitat suitability to geographic space. The ensemble modeling technique yielded high accuracy predictions relative to 30-fold cross-validated datasets (87% 30-fold cross-validated accuracy score). Both top predictors and model performance relative to these predictors matched current understanding of the drivers of RBT invasion and habitat suitability, indicating that temperature is a major factor influencing the spread of invasive RBT and hybridization with native WCT. The congruence between more time-consuming modeling approaches and our rapid machine-learning approach suggest that this workflow could be applied more broadly to provide data-driven management information for early detection of potential invaders.

Alberta, British Columbia, Montana↗
USGS2026

Pliocene (Piacenzian) planktic foraminiferal biogeography: Insights into how planktic biogeography is linked to climate and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems

The Piacenzian Age (3.60–2.58 Ma) of the Pliocene Epoch was characterized by globally warmer climates, higher sea levels, and atmospheric CO 2 similar to present. Utilizing a robust dataset of 2,101 samples and over 637,000 foraminifer specimens from 77 deep-sea core sites worldwide, we document planktic foraminifer biogeography and biodiversity during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP). Cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling reveal five major bioregions: tropical, warm subtropical, transitional, polar, and a distinct North Atlantic polar bioregion. Each bioregion was dominated by characteristic species with well-established temperature preferences. Analyses demonstrate higher species richness and evenness in low and mid-latitudes, with increased diversity associated with periods of climatic warming and poleward expansion of warm water assemblages. The long-term stability of biogeographic patterns underscores ecological conservatism but also highlights potential vulnerability to rapid anthropogenic climate change. Our findings emphasize the critical role of planktic foraminifers in reconstructing past ocean conditions and offer valuable insights into links between planktic biogeography, climate, and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems. This work advances our understanding of marine ecosystem responses to climate extremes and provides a foundation for future regional and temporal analyses of planktic foraminifer biogeography under global change scenarios.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2025

Wet meadow regeneration through restoration of biophysical feedbacks

Wet meadows are globally significant ecosystems that provide critical hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical functions, yet their extent has declined dramatically due to land use changes and hydrologic alteration. These sedge-dominated wetlands exist at the drier end of the wetland gradient, maintained by shallow groundwater and periodic inundation. This paper is a global synthesis of the ecological, geomorphic, and hydrological dynamics of wet meadows, with an emphasis on alluvial systems, to inform effective restoration strategies. We compare wet meadows to other wetlands, classify them into palustrine, lacustrine, and alluvial types, then focus on alluvial wet meadows and discuss how their formation and persistence depend on ground and surface water interactions, sediment deposition and flow obstructions, all mediated by biological processes. In particular, we highlight the role of hydric graminoids in resisting erosion and maintaining soil cohesion, how beaver promote meadow persistence, and the significance of wet meadows as carbon sinks. We also present stratigraphic evidence demonstrating that incision, often triggered by anthropogenic activity or changing climate, is the primary mechanism of alluvial wet meadow degradation, resulting in water table decline and shifts in vegetation composition. Restoration requires reversing these incisional processes through techniques that elevate water tables, disperse flow and retain sediment—methods traditionally associated with either soil conservation or stream restoration. These include nature-based solutions that create obstructions such as beaver dams and their analogues, rock and wood-based obstructions and incision trench or gully filling and grading. Given their multifunctional value—including but not limited to flood attenuation, biodiversity support, and carbon sequestration—wet meadows warrant a focused restoration framework. This review advocates for a valley-floor scale restoration paradigm that integrates hydrological reconnection, sediment retention, and biological reinforcement to ensure long-term resilience of these systems in the face of changing climate and land use pressures.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
USGS2020

Microbiomes from biorepositories? 16S rRNA bacterial amplicon sequencing of archived and contemporary intestinal samples of wild mammals (Eulipotyphla: Soricidae)

Interest in gut microbial community composition has exploded recently as a result of the increasing ability to characterize these organisms and a growing understanding of their role in host fitness. New technologies, such as next generation amplicon (16S rRNA) sequencing, have enabled identification of bacterial communities from samples of diverse origin (e.g., fecal, skin, genital, environmental, etc.). Relatively little work, however, has explored the feasibility of utilizing historical samples (e.g., museum archived samples) of varying age, quality, and preservation type. Because natural history collections span multiple decades, these biorepositories have the potential to provide fundamental historical baselines to measure and better understand biodiversity on a changing planet. Utilizing even a small proportion of museum specimens could provide a means of sampling past microbial communities, allowing for direct comparison to contemporary communities and more complete understanding of dynamic shifts through time. We examined the feasibility of obtaining 16S rRNA amplicon microbiome data from whole gastrointestinal tracts (GIs) of shrews of varying age and preservation method, including 5 freshly collected shrew GIs immediately fixed in liquid nitrogen (LN2), 10 ten-year old shrew GIs frozen at −20°C (whole animal), and 10 shrews of varying ages (4 from 1968, 1 from 1980, 1 from 2001, 1 from 2004, 1 from 2007, 1 from 2011 and 2 from 2013) fixed and stored whole in 70% ethanol. Not surprisingly, results of 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing reveal significantly different bacterial communities between different preservation techniques and age of samples. Ten-year old frozen samples had bacterial communities most similar to freshly collected (LN2) samples, while the bacterial communities of both were significantly different from the 70% ethanol preserved samples of various ages. Amongst those preserved in 70% ethanol, age of samples also influenced bacterial community composition. Additionally, we compare results of OTU based and ASV based analyses. Looking ahead, field collectors and museums should develop and adopt best practices related to frozen preservation to ensure adequate material for future microbiome investigations.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

Sea level rise may pose conservation challenges for the endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow

Biodiversity conservation under a changing climate is a challenging endeavor. Landscapes are shifting as a result of climate change and sea level rise but plant communities in particular may not keep up with the pace of change. Predictive ecological models can help decision makers understand how species are likely to respond to change and then adjust management actions to align with desired future conditions. Florida’s Everglades is a wetland ecosystem that is host to many species, including a large number of endangered and endemic species. Everglades ecosystem restoration has been ongoing for decades, but consideration of sea level rise impacts in restoration planning is more recent. Incorporating potential impacts from sea level rise into restoration planning should benefit species and their coastal habitats, most notably at the southern Florida peninsula. The endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow ( Ammospiza maritima mirabilis ) occurs in marl prairie habitat at the southern end of the Everglades. The locations of three of its six subpopulations are proximate to the coast. We used a spatially explicit predictive model, EverSparrow, to estimate probability of sparrow presence considering both hydrologic change from restoration and sea level rise. We found that the probability of sparrow presence decreased with increasing sea level rise. Within approximately 50 years, probability of presence significantly decreased for all three coastal subpopulation areas, with areas above 40% probability increasingly limited. Given the exceptionally low dispersal ability of this species and the geographic restrictions for habitat expansion, our results highlight the importance of freshwater flow into the southern Everglades marl prairie for habitat conservation.

Florida↗
USGS2022

Editorial: Fire regimes in desert ecosystems: Drivers, impacts and changes

Although not commonly associated with fire, many desert ecosystems across the globe do occasionally burn, and there is evidence that fire incidences are increasing, leading to altered fire regimes in this biome. The increased prevalence of megafires (wildfires >10,000 ha in size and typically damaging) in most global biomes is linked to climate change, although those occurring in deserts have received far less attention, from both a research and policy perspective, than that of forested ecosystems ( Linley et al., 2022 ). Understanding the drivers of desert fires, from climate to landscape patterns of hydrology and soil, and how these may be changing in the face of anthropogenic pressures, such as invasive species, livestock grazing, and global climate change, is imperative. This Research Topic has published nine papers addressing these drivers, how they have changed, and their impacts on desert biodiversity.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

Effects of environment and metacommunity delineation on multiple dimensions of stream fish beta diversity

Introduction: Beta diversity represents changes in community composition among locations across a landscape. While the effects of human activities on beta diversity are becoming clearer, few studies have considered human effects on the three dimensions of beta diversity: taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic. Including anthropogenic factors and multiple dimensions of biodiversity may explain additional variation in stream fish beta diversity, providing new insight into how metacommunities are structured within different spatial delineations. Methods: In this study, we used a 350 site stream fish abundance dataset from South Carolina, United States to quantify beta diversity explainable by spatial, natural environmental, and anthropogenic variables. We investigated three spatial delineations: (1) a single whole-state metacommunity delineated by political boundaries, (2) two metacommunities delineated by a natural geomorphic break separating uplands from lowlands, and (3) four metacommunities delineated by natural watershed boundaries. Within each metacommunity we calculated taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic beta diversity and used variation partitioning to quantify spatial, natural environmental, and anthropogenic contributions to variations in beta diversity. Results: We explained 25–81% of the variation in stream fish beta diversity. The importance of these three factors in structuring metacommunities differed among the diversity dimensions, providing complementary perspectives on the processes shaping beta diversity in fish communities. The effect of spatial, natural environmental, and anthropogenic factors varied among the spatial delineations, which indicate conclusions drawn from variation partitioning may depend on the spatial delineation chosen by researchers. Discussion: Our study highlights the importance of considering human effects on metacommunity structure, quantifying multiple dimensions of beta diversity, and careful consideration of user-defined metacommunity boundaries in beta diversity analyses.

South Carolina↗
USGS2024

Large-scale dam removal and ecosystem restoration

Rivers underpin vital ecosystems that support aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity and many ecosystem services, including food, water, culture, and recreation ( Dudgeon et al. 2006 ). After centuries of building dams on rivers across the world, river restoration via dam removal is receiving increased public attention, financial investment, and scientific study because of various issues of regarding dam infrastructure, such as obsolescence, sedimentation, and ecosystem degradation ( Duda and Bellmore, 2022 ; East and Grant, 2023 ). Most dam removal projects to date have focused on smaller structures, but larger structures > 10 m tall have also started to be removed in increasing numbers. Recent estimates suggest that only a small fraction of all dam removals have been scientifically studied, with most focused on small dams and short time scales ( Bellmore et al., 2016 ). Understanding the outcomes of large dam removal, where case studies are much more limited, depends on sustained research and monitoring efforts aimed at understanding restoration processes over large spatial and temporal scales ( Figure 1 ). The ecological and socio-ecological study of large dam removal represents a new frontier in dam removal research: projects are larger, more recent, and provide an opportunity to understand the complex ecological changes and impacts to humans that occur with these transformative restoration projects.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Fish conservation in streams of the agrarian Mississippi Alluvial Valley: Conceptual model, management actions, and field verification

The effects of agriculture and flood control practices accrued over more than a century have impaired aquatic habitats and their fish communities in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, the historic floodplain of the Lower Mississippi River prior to leveeing. As a first step to conservation planning and adaptive management, we developed and tested a conceptual model of how changes to this floodplain have affected stream environments and fish assemblages. The model is deliberately simple in structure because it needs to be understood by stakeholders ranging from engineers to farmers who must remain engaged to ensure effective conservation. Testing involved multivariate correlative analyses that included descriptors of land setting, water quality, and fish assemblages representing 376 stream samples taken over two decades and ranging in Strahler stream order from 1 to 8. The conceptual model was adequately corroborated by empirical data, but with unexplained variability that is not uncommon in field surveys where gear biases, temporal biases, and scale biases prevent accurate characterizations. Our conceptual model distinguishes three types of conservation actions relevant to large agricultural floodplains: reforestation of large parcels and riparian zone conservation, in-channel interventions and connectivity preservation, and flow augmentation. Complete restoration of the floodplain may not be an acceptable option to the agriculture community. However, in most cases the application of even the most basic measures can support the return of sensitive aquatic species. We suggest that together these types of conservation actions can bring improved water properties to impacted reaches, higher reach biodiversity, more intolerant species, and more rheophilic fishes.

Mississippi Alluvial Valle↗
USGS2025

A framework tool that applies weight-of-evidence integration to the analysis of existing datasets to guide freshwater conservation

The overarching issue we address here is how to extract clear and actionable ecological and management insights from real-world field data that often do not satisfy traditional statistical assumptions. Toward this goal, we developed a general 12+6 step adaptive management framework tool. We applied this framework tool to existing biodiversity monitoring data to create a proof-of-concept result that addresses the overarching question of “ why might a specific native stream fish taxon be present or absent at specific locations? ” Our multi-step framework tool links established steps and steps that are unique to our framework through weight-of evidence (WOE) integration, an approach that combines quantitative results from multiple visualization and statistical procedures. The systematic use of all steps in our framework can provide improved conservation outcomes compared to a single analysis. Advantages accrue from our approach because our framework tool refines the overarching goal into related sub-questions, applies a specific quantitative procedure to each sub-step, combines results from all sub-questions using a WOE integration, identifies testable questions that elucidate ambiguities and gaps revealed through WOE integration, and proposes practical field methods for obtaining this clarifying information through future research and data collections. The process of considering multiple visualizations and analyses as individual pieces of a shared puzzle offers a new way to approach the use of existing data. Our team-based approach transforms the collection and analysis of existing data into a series of field tests that can guide future actions (e.g., data collection-analysis events, restoration initiatives, research). Habitat and impact regressors will vary with taxa and system, but our structured process tool has broad generality for a range of conservation issues in which freshwater systems are threatened by human impacts.

Kansas↗
USGS2016

Hydrothermal vents and methane seeps: Rethinking the sphere of influence

Although initially viewed as oases within a barren deep ocean, hydrothermal vent and methane seep communities are now recognized to interact with surrounding ecosystems on the sea floor and in the water column, and to affect global geochemical cycles. The importance of understanding these interactions is growing as the potential rises for disturbance from oil and gas extraction, seabed mining and bottom trawling. Here we synthesize current knowledge of the nature, extent and time and space scales of vent and seep interactions with background systems. We document an expanded footprint beyond the site of local venting or seepage with respect to elemental cycling and energy flux, habitat use, trophic interactions, and connectivity. Heat and energy are released, global biogeochemical and elemental cycles are modified, and particulates are transported widely in plumes. Hard and biotic substrates produced at vents and seeps are used by “benthic background” fauna for attachment substrata, shelter, and access to food via grazing or through position in the current, while particulates and fluid fluxes modify planktonic microbial communities. Chemosynthetic production provides nutrition to a host of benthic and planktonic heterotrophic background species through multiple horizontal and vertical transfer pathways assisted by flow, gamete release, animal movements, and succession, but these pathways remain poorly known. Shared species, genera and families indicate that ecological and evolutionary connectivity exists among vents, seeps, organic falls and background communities in the deep sea; the genetic linkages with inactive vents and seeps and background assemblages however, are practically unstudied. The waning of venting or seepage activity generates major transitions in space and time that create links to surrounding ecosystems, often with identifiable ecotones or successional stages. The nature of all these interactions is dependent on water depth, as well as regional oceanography and biodiversity. Many ecosystem services are associated with the interactions and transitions between chemosynthetic and background ecosystems, for example carbon cycling and sequestration, fisheries production, and a host of non-market and cultural services. The quantification of the sphere of influence of vents and seeps could be beneficial to better management of deep-sea environments in the face of growing industrialization.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2019

Overhauling ocean spatial planning to improve marine megafauna conservation

Tracking data have led to evidence-based conservation of marine megafauna, but a disconnect remains between the many thousands of individual animals that have been tracked and the use of these data in conservation and management actions. Furthermore, the focus of most conservation efforts is within Exclusive Economic Zones despite the ability of these species to move thousands of kilometres across multiple national jurisdictions. To assist the goal of the United Nations General Assembly’s recent effort to negotiate a global treaty to conserve biodiversity on the high seas, we propose the development of a new frontier in dynamic marine spatial management. We argue that a global approach combining tracked movements of marine megafauna and human activities at-sea, and using existing and emerging technologies (e.g., through new tracking devices and big data approaches) can be applied to deliver near real-time diagnostics on existing risks and threats to mitigate global risks for marine megafauna. With technology developments over the next decade expected to catalyse the potential to survey marine animals and human activities in ever more detail and at global scales, the development of dynamic predictive tools based on near real-time tracking and environmental data will become crucial to address increasing risks. Such global tools for dynamic spatial and temporal management will, however, require extensive synoptic data updates and will be dependent on a shift to a culture of data sharing and open access. We propose a global mechanism to store and make such data available in near real-time, enabling a holistic view of space use by marine megafauna and humans that would significantly accelerate efforts to mitigate impacts and improve conservation and management of marine megafauna.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2020

The importance of the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico to foraging loggerhead sea turtles

Identification of high-use foraging sites where imperiled sea turtles are resident remains a globally-recognized conservation priority. In the biodiverse Gulf of Mexico (GoM), recent telemetry studies highlighted post-nesting foraging sites for federally threatened loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta). Our aim here was to discern loggerhead use of additional northern GoM regions that may serve as high-use foraging sites. Thus, we used satellite tracking and switching state-space modeling to show that the Big Bend region off the northwest Florida coast is a coastal foraging area that supports imperiled adult female loggerhead turtles tracked from different nesting subpopulations. From 2011 to 2016, we satellite-tagged 15 loggerheads that nested on four distinct beaches around the GoM: Dry Tortugas National Park, FL; Everglades National Park, FL; St. Joseph Peninsula, FL; and Gulf Shores, AL. Turtles arrived at their foraging ground in the Big Bend region between June and September and remained resident in their respective foraging sites for an average of 198 tracking days, where they established mean home ranges (95% kernel density estimate) 232.7 km2. Larger home ranges were in deeper water; 50% kernel density estimate centroid values were a mean 26.4 m deep and 52.7 km from shore. The Big Bend region provides a wide area of suitable year-round foraging habitat for loggerheads from at least 3 different nesting subpopulations. Understanding where and when threatened loggerheads forage and remain resident is key for designing both surveys of foraging resources and additional protection strategies that can impact population recovery trajectories for this imperiled species.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Experimental tree mortality does not induce marsh transgression in a Chesapeake Bay low-lying coastal forest

Transgression into adjacent uplands is an important global response of coastal wetlands to accelerated rates of sea level rise. “Ghost forests” mark a signature characteristic of marsh transgression on the landscape, as changes in tidal inundation and salinity cause bordering upland tree mortality, increase light availability, and the emergence of tidal marsh species due to reduced competition. To investigate these mechanisms of the marsh migration process, we conducted a field experiment to simulate a natural disturbance event (e.g., storm-induced flooding) by inducing the death of established trees (coastal loblolly pine, Pinus taeda ) at the marsh-upland forest ecotone. After this simulated disturbance in 2014, we monitored changes in vegetation along an elevation gradient in control and treatment areas to determine if disturbance can lead to an ecosystem shift from forested upland to wetland vegetation. Light availability initially increased in the disturbed area, leading to an increase in biodiversity of vegetation with early successional grass and shrub species. However, over the course of this 5-year experiment, there was no increase in inundation in the disturbed areas relative to the control and pine trees recolonized becoming the dominant plant cover in the disturbed study areas. Thus, in the 5 years since the disturbance, there has been no overall shift in species composition toward more hydrophytic vegetation that would be indicative of marsh transgression with the removal of trees. These findings suggest that disturbance is necessary but not sufficient alone for transgression to occur. Unless hydrological characteristics suppress tree re-growth within a period of several years following disturbance, the regenerating trees will shade and outcompete any migrating wetland vegetation species. Our results suggest that complex interactions between disturbance, biotic resistance, and slope help determine the potential for marsh transgression.

Chesapeake Bay low-lying coastal forest↗
USGS2022

Undeveloped and developed phases in the centennial evolution of a barrier-marsh-lagoon system: The case of Long Beach Island, New Jersey

Barrier islands and their associated backbarrier environments protect mainland population centers and infrastructure from storm impacts, support biodiversity, and provide long-term carbon storage, among other ecosystem services. Despite their socio-economic and ecological importance, the response of coupled barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise is poorly understood. Undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon systems typically respond to sea-level rise through the process of landward migration, driven by storm overwash and landward mainland marsh expansion. Such response, however, can be affected by human development and engineering activities such as lagoon dredging and shoreline stabilization. To better understand the difference in the response between developed and undeveloped barrier-marsh-lagoon environments to sea-level rise, we perform a local morphologic analysis that describes the evolution of Long Beach Island (LBI), New Jersey, over the last 182 years. We find that between 1840 and 1934 the LBI system experienced landward migration of all five boundaries, including 171 meters of shoreline retreat. Between the 1920s and 1950s, however, there was a significant shift in system behavior that coincided with the onset of groin construction, which was enhanced by beach nourishment and lagoon dredging practices. From 1934 to 2022 the LBI system experienced ~22 meters of shoreline progradation and a rapid decline in marsh platform extent. Additionally, we extend a morphodynamic model to describe the evolution of the system in terms of five geomorphic boundaries: the ocean shoreline and backbarrier-marsh interface, the seaward and landward lagoon-marsh boundaries, and the landward limit of the inland marsh. We couple this numerical modeling effort with the map analysis during the undeveloped phase of LBI evolution, between 1840 and 1934. Despite its simplicity, the modeling framework can describe the average cross-shore evolution of the barrier-marsh-lagoon system during this period without accounting for human landscape modifications, supporting the premise that natural processes were the key drivers of morphological change. Overall, these results suggest that anthropogenic effects have played a major role in the evolution of LBI over the past century by altering overwash fluxes and marsh-lagoon geometry; this is likely the case for other barrier-marsh-lagoon environments around the world.

New Jersey↗
USGS2025

Mapping global coral vulnerability to stony coral tissue loss disease: Implications for biosecurity and conservation

Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease (SCTLD) has devastated Caribbean coral reefs since 2014, but its potential for global impact remains uncertain. We developed predictive models to assess the worldwide vulnerability of coral reefs to SCTLD under different origin and spread hypotheses. Using random forest regression models incorporating coral taxonomy and zooxanthellae clade associations from 52 taxa, we projected SCTLD susceptibility and mortality patterns globally using six indices: Mean susceptibility per genus per location, Summed susceptibilities across genera per location, Summed susceptibilities across genera per realm, Mean mortality per genus per location, Summed mortalities across genera per location, and Summed mortalities across genera per realm. Models demonstrated strong predictive performance (R² = 0.57 for susceptibility; R² = 0.73 for mortality) and revealed that about 7% of coral genera per location are potentially susceptible to SCTLD. While mean susceptibility and mortality per genus were highest in the Tropical Atlantic, the summed susceptibility and mortality across genera were much higher in the biodiverse Central Indo-Pacific. Natural barriers could limit SCTLD’s spread, including the mid-Atlantic gap and the low diversity of the Tropical Eastern Pacific, supporting the contained disease hypothesis. However, the widespread distribution of susceptible genera across coral reef realms indicates significant vulnerability should SCTLD circumvent these barriers through human-mediated transport, particularly via ballast water or the aquarium trade. If SCTLD is an invasive pathogen originating in the Pacific, as shipping patterns for the aquarium trade suggest, mortality in its native range would likely be lower than our projections. These findings point to targeted intervention strategies, including enhanced monitoring at key locations, assessment of biosecurity needs in high-risk areas, and prioritized conservation efforts in vulnerable high-diversity regions to prevent SCTLD from spreading globally.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗