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USGS2014

Evaluation of statistically downscaled GCM output as input for hydrological and stream temperature simulation in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (1961–99)

The accuracy of statistically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of daily surface climate for historical conditions (1961–99) and the implications when they are used to drive hydrologic and stream temperature models were assessed for the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River basin (ACFB). The ACFB is a 50 000 km 2 basin located in the southeastern United States. Three GCMs were statistically downscaled, using an asynchronous regional regression model (ARRM), to ⅛° grids of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature. These ARRM-based climate datasets were used as input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model used to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of climate and land use on watershed response. The ACFB was divided into 258 hydrologic response units (HRUs) in which the components of flow (groundwater, subsurface, and surface) are computed in response to climate, land surface, and subsurface characteristics of the basin. Daily simulations of flow components from PRMS were used with the climate to simulate in-stream water temperatures using the Stream Network Temperature (SNTemp) model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model for branched stream networks. The climate, hydrology, and stream temperature for historical conditions were evaluated by comparing model outputs produced from historical climate forcings developed from gridded station data (GSD) versus those produced from the three statistically downscaled GCMs using the ARRM methodology. The PRMS and SNTemp models were forced with the GSD and the outputs produced were treated as “truth.” This allowed for a spatial comparison by HRU of the GSD-based output with ARRM-based output. Distributional similarities between GSD- and ARRM-based model outputs were compared using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test in combination with descriptive metrics such as the mean and variance and an evaluation of rare and sustained events. In general, precipitation and streamflow quantities were negatively biased in the downscaled GCM outputs, and results indicate that the downscaled GCM simulations consistently underestimate the largest precipitation events relative to the GSD. The KS test results indicate that ARRM-based air temperatures are similar to GSD at the daily time step for the majority of the ACFB, with perhaps subweekly averaging for stream temperature. Depending on GCM and spatial location, ARRM-based precipitation and streamflow requires averaging of up to 30 days to become similar to the GSD-based output. Evaluation of the model skill for historical conditions suggests some guidelines for use of future projections; while it seems correct to place greater confidence in evaluation metrics which perform well historically, this does not necessarily mean those metrics will accurately reflect model outputs for future climatic conditions. Results from this study indicate no “best” overall model, but the breadth of analysis can be used to give the product users an indication of the applicability of the results to address their particular problem. Since results for historical conditions indicate that model outputs can have significant biases associated with them, the range in future projections examined in terms of change relative to historical conditions for each individual GCM may be more appropriate.

Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2009

Cenozoic stratigraphy of the Sahara, Northern Africa

This paper presents an overview of the Cenozoic stratigraphic record in the Sahara, and shows that the strata display some remarkably similar characteristics across much of the region. In fact, some lithologies of certain ages are exceptionally widespread and persistent, and many of the changes from one lithology to another appear to have been relatively synchronous across the Sahara. The general stratigraphic succession is that of a transition from early Cenozoic carbonate strata to late Cenozoic siliciclastic strata. This transition in lithology coincides with a long-term eustatic fall in sea level since the middle Cretaceous and with a global climate transition from a Late Cretaceous–Early Eocene “warm mode” to a Late Eocene–Quaternary “cool mode”. Much of the shorter-term stratigraphic variability in the Sahara (and even the regional unconformities) also can be correlated with specific changes in sea level, climate, and tectonic activity during the Cenozoic. Specifically, Paleocene and Eocene carbonate strata and phosphate are suggestive of a warm and humid climate, whereas latest Eocene evaporitic strata (and an end-Eocene regional unconformity) are correlated with a eustatic fall in sea level, the build-up of ice in Antarctica, and the appearance of relatively arid climates in the Sahara. The absence of Oligocene strata throughout much of the Sahara is attributed to the effects of generally low eustatic sea level during the Oligocene and tectonic uplift in certain areas during the Late Eocene and Oligocene. Miocene sandstone and conglomerate are attributed to the effects of continued tectonic uplift around the Sahara, generally low eustatic sea level, and enough rainfall to support the development of extensive fluvial systems. Middle–Upper Miocene carbonate strata accumulated in northern Libya in response to a eustatic rise in sea level, whereas Upper Miocene mudstone accumulated along the south side of the Atlas Mountains because uplift of the mountains blocked fluvial access to the Mediterranean Sea. Uppermost Miocene evaporites (and an end-Miocene regional unconformity) in the northern Sahara are correlated with the Messinian desiccation of the Mediterranean Sea. Abundant and widespread Pliocene paleosols are attributed to the onset of relatively arid climate conditions and (or) greater variability of climate conditions, and the appearance of persistent and widespread eolian sediments in the Sahara is coincident with the major glaciation in the northern hemisphere during the Pliocene.

Journal of African Earth Sciences↗

USGS2015

Two magma bodies beneath the summit of Kilauea Volcano unveiled by isotopically distinct melt deliveries from the mantle

The summit magma storage reservoir of Kīlauea Volcano is one of the most important components of the magmatic plumbing system of this frequently active basaltic shield-building volcano. Here we use new high-precision Pb isotopic analyses of Kīlauea summit lavas—from 1959 to the active Halema‘uma‘u lava lake—to infer the number, size, and interconnectedness of magma bodies within the volcano's summit reservoir. From 1971 to 1982, the 206 Pb/ 204 Pb ratios of the lavas define two separate magma mixing trends that correlate with differences in vent location and/or pre-eruptive magma temperature. These relationships, which contrast with a single magma mixing trend for lavas from 1959 to 1968, indicate that Kīlauea summit eruptions since at least 1971 were supplied from two distinct magma bodies. The locations of these magma bodies are inferred to coincide with two major deformation centers identified by geodetic monitoring of the volcano's summit region: (1) the main locus of the summit reservoir &sim;2–4 km below the southern rim of Kīlauea Caldera and (2) a shallower magma body <2 km below the eastern rim of Halema‘uma‘u pit crater. Residence time modeling suggests that the total volume of magma within Kīlauea's summit reservoir during the late 20th century (1959–1982) was exceedingly small (&sim;0.1–0.5 km 3 ). Voluminous Kīlauea eruptions, such as the ongoing, 32-yr old Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō rift eruption (>4 km 3 of lava erupted), must therefore be sustained by a nearly continuous supply of new melt from the mantle. The model results show that a minimum of four compositionally distinct, mantle-derived magma batches were delivered to the volcano (at least three directly to the summit reservoir) since 1959. These melt inputs correlate with the initiation of energetic (1959 Kīlauea Iki) and/or sustained (1969–1974 Mauna Ulu, 1983-present Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō and 2008-present Halema‘uma‘u) eruptions. Thus, Kīlauea's eruptive behavior is partly tied to the delivery of new magma batches from the volcano's source region within the Hawaiian mantle plume.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Growth and degradation of Hawaiian volcanoes

The 19 known shield volcanoes of the main Hawaiian Islands—15 now emergent, 3 submerged, and 1 newly born and still submarine—lie at the southeast end of a long-lived hot spot chain. As the Pacific Plate of the Earth’s lithosphere moves slowly northwestward over the Hawaiian hot spot, volcanoes are successively born above it, evolve as they drift away from it, and eventually die and subside beneath the ocean surface. The massive outpouring of lava flows from Hawaiian volcanoes weighs upon the oceanic crust, depressing it by as much as 5 km along an axial Hawaiian Moat. The periphery of subsidence is marked by the surrounding Hawaiian Arch. Subsidence is ongoing throughout almost all of a volcano’s life. During its active life, an idealized Hawaiian volcano passes through four eruptive stages: preshield, shield, postshield, and rejuvenated. Though imperfectly named, these stages match our understanding of the growth history and compositional variation of the Hawaiian volcanoes; the stages reflect variations in the amount and rate of heat supplied to the lithosphere as it overrides the hot spot. Principal growth occurs in the first 1–2 million years as each volcano rises from the sea floor or submarine flank of an adjacent volcano. Volcanic extinction ensues as a volcano moves away from the hot spot. Eruptive-stage boundaries are drawn somewhat arbitrarily because of their transitional nature. Preshield-stage lava is alkalic as a consequence of a nascent magma-transport system and less extensive melting at the periphery of the mantle plume fed by the hot spot. The shield stage is the most productive volcanically, and each Hawaiian volcano erupts an estimated 80–95 percent of its ultimate volume in tholeiitic lavas during this stage. Shield-stage volcanism marks the time when a volcano is near or above the hot spot and its magma supply system is robust. This most active stage may also be the peak time when giant landslides modify the flanks of the volcanoes, although such processes begin earlier and extend later in the life of the volcanoes. Late-shield strata extend the silica range as alkali basalt and even hawaiite lava flows are sparsely interlayered with tholeiite at some volcanoes. Rare are more highly fractionated shield-stage lava flows, which may reach 68 weight percent SiO 2 . Intervolcano compositional differences result mainly from variations in the part of the mantle plume sampled by magmatism and the distribution of magma sources within it. Volcanism wanes gradually as Hawaiian volcanoes move away from the hot spot, passing from the shield stage into the postshield stage. Shallow magma reservoirs (1–7-km depth) of the shield-stage volcanoes cannot be sustained as magma supply lessens, but smaller reservoirs at 20–30-km depth persist. The rate of extrusion diminishes by a factor of 10 late in the shield stage, and the composition of erupted lava becomes more alkalic—albeit erratically—as the degree of melting diminishes. The variation makes this transition, from late shield to postshield, difficult to define rigorously. Of the volcanoes old enough to have seen this transition, eight have postshield strata sufficiently distinct and widespread to map separately. Only two, Ko‘olau and Lāna‘i, lack rocks of postshield composition. Five Hawaiian volcanoes have seen rejuvenated-stage volcanism following quiescent periods that ranged from 2.0 to less than 0.5 million years. The rejuvenated stage can be brief—only one or two eruptive episodes—or notably durable. That on Ni‘ihau lasted from 2.2 to 0.4 million years ago; on Kaua‘i, the stage has been ongoing since 3.5 million years ago. As transitions go, the rejuvenated stage may be thought of as the long tail of alkalic volcanism that begins in late-shield time and persists through the postshield (+rejuvenated-stage) era. Because successive Hawaiian volcanoes erupt over long and overlapping spans of time, there is a wide range in the age of volcanism along the island chain, even though the age of Hawaiian shields is progressively younger to the southeast. For example, almost every island from Ni‘ihau to Hawai‘i had an eruption in the time between 0.3 and 0.4 million years ago, even though only the Island of Hawai‘i had active volcanoes in their shield stage during that time. Once they have formed, Hawaiian volcanoes become subject to a spectrum of processes of degradation. Primary among these are subaerial erosion, landslides, and subsidence. The islands, especially those that grow high above sea level, experience mean annual precipitation that locally exceeds 9 m, leading to rapid erosion that can carve deep canyons in less than 1 million years. Hawaiian volcanoes have also been modified by giant landslides. Seventeen discrete slides that formed in the past 5 m.y. have been identified around the main Hawaiian Islands, and fully 70 are known along the Hawaiian Ridge between Midway Islands and the Island of Hawai‘i. These giant landslides displace large amounts of seawater to generate catastrophic giant waves (megatsunami). The geologic evidence for megatsunami in the Hawaiian Islands includes chaotic coral and lava-clast breccia preserved as high as 155 m above sea level on Lāna‘i and Moloka‘i. Large Hawaiian volcanoes can persist as islands through the rapid subsidence by building upward rapidly enough. But in the long run, subsidence, coupled with surface erosion, erases any volcanic remnant above sea level in about 15 m.y. One consequence of subsidence, in concert with eustatic changes in sea level, is the drowning of coral reefs that drape the submarine flanks of the actively subsiding volcanoes. At least six reefs northwest of the Island of Hawai‘i form a stairstep configuration, the oldest being deepest.

Hawaii↗

USGS1998

Earthquake triggering by transient and static deformations

Observational evidence for both static and transient near-field and far-field triggered seismicity are explained in terms of a frictional instability model, based on a single degree of freedom spring-slider system and rate- and state-dependent frictional constitutive equations. In this study a triggered earthquake is one whose failure time has been advanced by Δ t (clock advance) due to a stress perturbation. Triggering stress perturbations considered include square-wave transients and step functions, analogous to seismic waves and coseismic static stress changes, respectively. Perturbations are superimposed on a constant background stressing rate which represents the tectonic stressing rate. The normal stress is assumed to be constant. Approximate, closed-form solutions of the rate-and-state equations are derived for these triggering and background loads, building on the work of Dieterich [1992, 1994]. These solutions can be used to simulate the effects of static and transient stresses as a function of amplitude, onset time t 0 , and in the case of square waves, duration. The accuracies of the approximate closed-form solutions are also evaluated with respect to the full numerical solution and t 0 . The approximate solutions underpredict the full solutions, although the difference decreases as t 0 approaches the end of the earthquake cycle. The relationship between Δ t and t 0 differs for transient and static loads: a static stress step imposed late in the cycle causes less clock advance than an equal step imposed earlier, whereas a later applied transient causes greater clock advance than an equal one imposed earlier. For equal Δ t , transient amplitudes must be greater than static loads by factors of several tens to hundreds depending on t 0 . We show that the rate-and-state model requires that the total slip at failure is a constant, regardless of the loading history. Thus a static load applied early in the cycle, or a transient applied at any time, reduces the stress at the initiation of failure, whereas static loads that are applied sufficiently late raise it. Rate-and-state friction predictions differ markedly from those based on Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) in which Δ t equals the amplitude of the static stress change divided by the background stressing rate. The ΔCFS model assumes a stress failure threshold, while the rate-and-state equations require a slip failure threshold. The complete rate-and-state equations predict larger Δ t than the ΔCFS model does for static stress steps at small t 0 , and smaller Δ t than the ΔCFS model for stress steps at large t 0 . The ΔCFS model predicts nonzero Δ t only for transient loads that raise the stress to failure stress levels during the transient. In contrast, the rate-and-state model predicts nonzero Δ t for smaller loads, and triggered failure may occur well after the transient is finished. We consider heuristically the effects of triggering on a population of faults, as these effects might be evident in seismicity data. Triggering is manifest as an initial increase in seismicity rate that may be followed by a quiescence or by a return to the background rate. Available seismicity data are insufficient to discriminate whether triggered earthquakes are “new” or clock advanced. However, if triggering indeed results from advancing the failure time of inevitable earthquakes, then our modeling suggests that a quiescence always follows transient triggering and that the duration of increased seismicity also cannot exceed the duration of a triggering transient load. Quiescence follows static triggering only if the population of available faults is finite.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2021

The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS1991

Numerical simulations of hydrothermal circulation resulting from basalt intrusions in a buried spreading center

A two-dimensional, one by two-kilometer section through the seafloor was simulated with a numerical model to investigate coupled fluid and heat flow resulting from basalt intrusions in a buried spreading center. Boundary and initial conditions and physical properties of both sediments and basalt were constrained by field surveys and drilling in the Guaymas Basin, central Gulf of California. Parametric variations in these studies included sediment and basalt permeability, anisotropy in sediment permeability, and the size of heat sources. Faults were introduced through new intrusions both before and after cooling. Background heat input caused fluid convection at velocities ≤ 3 cm a −1 through shallow sediments. Eighty to ninety percent of the heat introduced at the base of the simulations exited through the upper, horizontal surface, even when the vertical boundaries were made permeable to fluid flow. The simulated injection of a 25–50 m thick basalt intrusion at a depth of 250 m resulted in about 10 yr of pore-fluid expulsion through the sea-floor in all cases, leaving the sediments above the intrusions strongly underpressured. A longer period of fluid recharge followed, sometimes accompanied by reductions in total seafloor heat output of 10% in comparison to pre-intrusion values. Additional discharge-recharge events were dispersed chaotically through the duration of the cooling period. These cycles in heat and fluid flow resulted from the response of the simulated system to a thermodynamic shock, the sudden emplacement of a large heat source, and not from mechanical displacement of sediments and pore fluids, which was not simulated. Water/rock mass ratios calculated from numerical simulations are in good agreement with geochemical estimates from materials recovered from the Guaymas Basin, assuming a bulk basalt permeability value of at least 10 −17 m 2 /(10 −2 mD). The addition of faults through intrusions and sediments in these simulations did not facilitate continuous, rapid venting. Increased heat input at the base of the faults resulted in temporarily greater fluid discharge, but the flow could not be sustained because the modeled system could not recharge cold fluid quickly enough to remove sufficient heat through the vents.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2012

Heat flow and energetics of the San Andreas fault zone

Approximately 100 heat flow measurements in the San Andreas fault zone indicate (1) there is no evidence for local factional heating of the main fault trace at any latitude over a 1000-km length from Cape Mendocino to San Bernardino, (2) average heat flow is high (∼2 HFU, ∼80 mW m −2 ) throughout the 550-km segment of the Coast Ranges that encloses the San Andreas fault zone in central California; this broad anomaly falls off rapidly toward the Great Valley to the east, and over a 200-km distance toward the Mendocino Triple Junction to the northwest. As others have pointed out, a local conductive heat flow anomaly would be detectable unless the frictional resistance allocated to heat production on the main trace were ≲100 bars. Frictional work allocated to surface energy of new fractures is probably unimportant, and hydrologic convection is not likely to invalidate the conduction assumption, since the heat discharge by thermal springs near the fault is negligible. Explanations for the low dynamic friction fall into two intergradational classes: those in which the fault is weak all of the time and those in which it is weak only during earthquakes (possibly just large ones). The first class includes faults containing anomalously weak gouge materials and faults containing materials with normal frictional properties under near-lithostatic steady state fluid pressures. In the second class, weakening is caused by the event (for example, a thermally induced increase in fluid pressure, dehydration of clay minerals, or acoustic fluidization). In this class, unlike the first, the average strength and ambient tectonic shear stress may be large, ∼1 kbar, but the stress allocated to elastic radiation (the apparent stress) must be of similar magnitude, an apparent contradiction with seismic estimates. Unless seismic radiation is underestimated for large earthquakes, it is difficult to justify average tectonic stresses on the main trace of the San Andreas fault in excess of ∼200 bars. The development of the broad Coast Range heat flow anomaly southward from Cape Mendocino suggests that heat flow increases by a factor of 2 within 4 m.y. after the passage of the Mendocino Triple Junction. This passage leaves the San Andreas transform fault zone in its wake; the depth of the anomalous sources cannot be much greater than the depth of the seismogenic layer. Some of the anomalous heat may be supplied by conduction from the warmer mantle that must occur south of the Mendocino transform (where there is no subducting slab), and some might be supplied by shear heating in the fault zone. With no contribution from shear heating, extreme mantle upwelling would be required, and asthenosphere conditions should exist today at depths of only ∼20 km in the northernmost Coast Ranges. If there is an appreciable contribution from shear heating, the heat flow constraint implies that the seismogenic layer is partially decoupled at its base and that the basal traction is in the sense that resists right lateral motion on the fault(s). As a result of these basal tractions, the average shearing stress in the seismogenic layer would increase with distance from the main fault, and the seismogenic layer would offer substantial resistance to plate motion even though resistance on the main fault might be negligible. These speculative models have testable consequences.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2020

Changing suspended sediment in United States rivers and streams: Linking sediment trends to changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate

Sediment is one of the leading pollutants in rivers and streams across the United States (US) and the world. Between 1992 and 2012, concentrations of annual mean suspended sediment decreased at over half of the 137 stream sites assessed across the contiguous US. Increases occurred at less than 25 % of the sites, and the direction of change was uncertain at the remaining 25 %. Sediment trends were characterized using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model, and decreases in sediment ranged from −95 % to −8.5 % of the 1992 concentration. To explore potential drivers of these changes, the sediment trends were (1) parsed into two broad contributors of change, changes in land management versus changes in the streamflow regime, and (2) grouped by land use of the watershed and correlated to concurrent changes in land use or land cover (land use/cover), hydrology and climate variables and static/long-term watershed characteristics. At 83 % of the sites, changes in land management (captured by changes in the concentration–streamflow relationship over time; C–Q relationship) contributed more to the change in the sediment trend than changes in the streamflow regime alone (i.e., any systematic change in the magnitude, frequency or timing of flows). However, at >50 % of the sites, changes in the streamflow regime contributed at least a 5 % change in sediment, and at 11 sites changes in the streamflow regime contributed over half the change in sediment, indicating that at many sites changes in streamflow were not the main driver of changes in sediment but were often an important supporting factor. Correlations between sediment trends and concurrent changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate were often stronger at sites draining watersheds with more homogenous, human-related land uses (i.e., agricultural and urban lands) compared to mixed-use or undeveloped lands. At many sites, decreases in sediment occurred despite small-to-moderate increases in the amount of urban or agricultural land in the watershed, suggesting conservation efforts and best-management practices (BMPs) used to reduce sediment runoff to streams may be successful, up to a point, as lands are converted to urban and agricultural uses.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2009

Optical satellite data volcano monitoring: a multi-sensor rapid response system

In this chapter, the use of satellite remote sensing to monitor active geological processes is described. Specifically, threats posed by volcanic eruptions are briefly outlined, and essential monitoring requirements are discussed. As an application example, a collaborative, multi-agency operational volcano monitoring system in the north Pacific is highlighted with a focus on the 2007 eruption of Kliuchevskoi volcano, Russia. The data from this system have been used since 2004 to detect the onset of volcanic activity, support the emergency response to large eruptions, and assess the volcanic products produced following the eruption. The overall utility of such integrative assessments is also summarized. The work described in this chapter was originally funded through two National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth System Science research grants that focused on the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument. A skilled team of volcanologists, geologists, satellite tasking experts, satellite ground system experts, system engineers and software developers collaborated to accomplish the objectives. The first project, Automation of the ASTER Emergency Data Acquisition Protocol for Scientific Analysis, Disaster Monitoring, and Preparedness , established the original collaborative research and monitoring program between the University of Pittsburgh (UP), the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), the NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, and affiliates on the ASTER Science Team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) as well as associates at the Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center (ERSDAC) in Japan. This grant, completed in 2008, also allowed for detailed volcanic analyses and data validation during three separate summer field campaigns to Kamchatka Russia. The second project, Expansion and synergistic use of the ASTER Urgent Request Protocol (URP) for natural disaster monitoring and scientific analysis , has expanded the project to other volcanoes around the world and is in progress through 2011. The focus on ASTER data is due to the suitability of the sensor for natural disaster monitoring and the availability of data. The instrument has several unique facets that make it especially attractive for volcanic observations (Ramsey and Dehn, 2004). Specifically, ASTER routinely collects data at night, it has the ability to generate digital elevation models using stereo imaging, it can collect data in various gain states to minimize data saturation, it has a cross-track pointing capability for faster targeting, and it collects data up to ±85° latitude for better global coverage. As with any optical imaging-based remote sensing, the viewing conditions can negatively impact the data quality. This impact varies across the optical and thermal infrared wavelengths as well as being a function of the specific atmospheric window within a given wavelength region. Water vapor and cloud formation can obscure surface data in the visible and near infrared (VNIR)/shortwave infrared (SWIR) region due mainly to non-selective scattering of the incident photons. In the longer wavelengths of the thermal infrared (TIR), scattering is less of an issue, but heavy cloud cover can still obscure the ground due to atmospheric absorption. Thin clouds can be optically-transparent in the VNIR and TIR regions, but can cause errors in the extracted surface reflectance or derived surface temperatures. In regions prone to heavy cloud cover, optical remote sensing can be improved through increased temporal resolution. As more images are acquired in a given time period the chances of a clear image improve dramatically. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) routine monitoring, which commonly collects 4-6 images per day of any north Pacific volcano, takes advantage of this fact. The rapid response program described in this chapter also improves the temporal resolution of the ASTER instrument. ASTER has been acquiring images of volcanic eruptions since soon after its launch in December 1999. An early example included the observations of the large pyroclastic flow deposit emplaced at Bezymianny volcano in Kamchatka, Russia. The first images in March 2000, just weeks after the eruption, revealed the extent, composition, and cooling history of this large deposit and of the active lava dome (Ramsey and Dehn, 2004). The initial results from these early datasets spurred interest in using ASTER data for expanded volcano monitoring in the north Pacific. It also gave rise to the multi-year NASA-funded programs of rapid response scheduling and imaging throughout the Aleutian, Kamchatka and Kurile arcs. Since the formal establishment of the programs, the data have provided detailed descriptions of the eruptions of Augustine, Bezymianny, Kliuchevskoi and Sheveluch volcanoes over the past nine years (Wessels et al., in press; Carter et al., 2007, 2008; Ramsey et al., 2008; Rose and Ramsey, 2009). The initial research focus of this rapid response program was specifically on automating the ASTER sensor’s ability for targeted observational scheduling using the expedited data system. This urgent request protocol is one of the unique characteristics of ASTER. It provides a limited number of emergency observations, typically at a much-improved temporal resolution and quicker turnaround with data processing in the United States rather than in Japan. This can speed the reception of the processed data by several days to a week. The ongoing multi-agency research and operational collaboration has been highly successful. AVO serves as the primary source for status information on volcanic activity, working closely with the National Weather Service (NWS), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), military and other state and federal emergency services. Collaboration with the Russian Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (IVS)/Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) is also maintained. Once a volcano is identified as having increased thermal output, ASTER is automatically tasked and the volcano is targeted at the next available opportunity. After the data are acquired, scientists at all the agencies have access to the images, with the primary science analysis carried out at the University of Pittsburgh and AVO. Results are disseminated to the responsible monitoring agencies and the global community through e-mail mailing lists.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Wandering terranes in southern Alaska: The Aleutia Microplate and implications for the Bering Sea

Paleomagnetic and geological data suggest that much of southern Alaska is a collage of tectonostratigraphic terranes which originated in Mesozoic time at paleolatitudes far south of their present position. The time of ‘docking’ of the terranes against cratonic Alaska is critical to defining their amalgamated size and extent during their northward motion as well as their role in the evolution of the Bering Sea. One of the largest of the tectonostratigraphic terranes, the Peninsular terrane of south central and southwestern Alaska, extends offshore along the outer Bering Sea continental margin (Beringia). Paleomagnetic data suggest that this terrane has moved northward through all of Cenozoic time, but geologic data imply that the terrane had accreted to Alaska by the end of the Mesozoic. In early Cenozoic time the eastern part of the Aleutian arc appears to have been superimposed on the Peninsular terrane, and postulated northward Cenozoic motion of the terrane would therefore have required northward motion of the arc. Two accretion models, based on docking times for terranes in Alaska, are proposed, and they illustrate that large areas of the abyssal Bering Sea, the Alaska Peninsula, the Aleutian arc, and the Beringian continental margin may be part of a superterrane or microplate called Aleutia (microplate as defined by Beck et al. (1980), i.e., a microplate is a displaced segment of lithosphere that has crustal roots, whereas a superterrane is an amalgamation of terranes which may or may not be rootless). Model A implies that the Aleutian arc developed in situ on the southern edge of Aleutia after the microplate had docked. In model B, the final docking time of the Peninsular terrane is late Cenozoic, which implies that the Aleutia microplate encompasses a mammoth area that includes parts of southern Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, the southern Beringian margin, the abyssal Bering Sea (Kula plate), and the Aleutian arc. If model A is correct, the docking time of the Peninsular terrane is late Mesozoic or earliest Tertiary. The Aleutia microplate in this model is made up solely of the abyssal Bering Sea (Kula plate), which presumably docked at the same time or slightly after the Peninsular terrane accreted against Alaska. If model B is correct, that is, if the Aleutia collided with nuclear Alaska during the Cenozoic, then a late Cenozoic suture zone, the vestige of a large open sea that must have closed between Aleutia and Alaska, must exist in south central and southwest Alaska. Either evidence for Cenozoic closure and suturing has been obliterated in Alaska or the inferences of Cenozoic terrane motion derived from paleomagnetic data are suspect.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Barkley Canyon gas hydrates: A synthesis based on two decades of seafloor observation and remote sensing

Barkley Canyon is one of the few known sites worldwide with the occurrence of thermogenic gas seepage and formation of structure-II and structure-H gas hydrate mounds on the seafloor. This site is the location of continuous seafloor monitoring as part of the Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) cabled observatory off the west coast off Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We combine repeat remotely operated vehicle (ROV) seafloor video observations, mapping with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), ship-, ROV-, and AUV-based identification of gas flares, as well as seismic and Chirp data to investigate the distribution of fluid migration pathways. Geologically, the site with the prominent gas hydrate mounds and associated fluid seepage is covering an area of ∼0.15 km 2 and is situated on a remnant of a rotated fault block that had slipped off the steep flanks of the north-east facing canyon wall. The gas hydrate mounds, nearly constant in dimension over the entire observation period, are associated with gas and oil seepage and surrounded by debris of chemosynthetic communities and authigenic carbonate. The formation of gas hydrate at and near the seafloor requires additional accommodation space created by forming blisters at the seafloor that displace the regular sediments. An additional zone located centrally on the rotated fault block with more diffuse seepage (∼0.02 km 2 in extent) has been identified with no visible mounds, but with bacterial mats, small carbonate concretions, and clam beds. Gas venting is seen acoustically in the water column up to a depth of ∼300 m. However, acoustic water-column imaging during coring and ROV dives showed rising gas bubbles to much shallower depth, even <50 m, likely a result of degassing of rising oil droplets, which themselves cannot be seen acoustically. Combining all observations, the location of the gas hydrate mounds is controlled by a combination of fault-focused fluid migration from a deeper reservoir and fluid seepage along more permeable strata within the rotated slope block. Fluids must be provided continuously to allow the sustained presence of the gas hydrate mounds at the seafloor.

Barkley Canyon↗

USGS2012

A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: Calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of inter- and intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellite-driven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004–2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1–2 m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4 m between the years 1998–2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance model for (i) quantitative assessment of the impact of basin developmental activities on lake levels and for (ii) forecasting lake level changes and their impact on fisheries. From this study, we suggest that globally available satellite altimetry data provide a unique opportunity for calibration and validation of hydrologic models in ungauged basins.

Lake Turkana↗

USGS2012

The Steens Mountain (Oregon) geomagnetic polarity transition, 2. Field intensity variations and discussion of reversal models

We carried out an extensive paleointensity study of the 15.5±0.3 m.y. Miocene reversed‐to‐normal polarity transition recorded in lava flows from Steens Mountain (south central Oregon). One hundred eighty‐five samples from the collection whose paleodirectional study is reported by Mankinen et al. (this issue) were chosen for paleointensity investigations because of their low viscosity index, high Curie point and reversibility, or near reversibility, of the strong field magnetization curve versus temperature. Application of the Thellier stepwise double heating method was very successful, yielding 157 usable paleointensity estimates corresponding to 73 distinct lava flows. After grouping successive lava flows that did not differ significantly in direction and intensity, we obtained 51 distinguishable, complete field vectors of which 10 are reversed, 28 are transitional, and 13 are normal. The record is complex, quite unlike that predicted by simple flooding or standing nondipole field models. It begins with an estimated several thousand years of reversed polarity with an average intensity of 31.5±8.5 μT, about one third lower than the expected Miocene intensity. This difference is interpreted as a long‐term reduction of the dipole moment prior to the reversal. When site directions and intensities are considered, truly transitional directions and intensities appear almost at the same time at the beginning of the transition, and they disappear simultaneously at the end of the reversal. Large deviations in declination occur during this approximately 4500±1000 year transition period that are compatible with roughly similar average magnitudes of zonal and nonzonal field components at the site. The transitional intensity is generally low, with an average of 10.9±4.9 μT for directions more than 45° away from the dipole field and a minimum of about 5 μT. The root‐mean‐square of the three field components X , Y , and Z are of the same order of magnitude for the transitional field and the historical nondipole field at the site latitude. However, a field intensity increase to pretransitional values occurs when the field temporarily reaches normal directions, which suggests that dipolar structure could have been briefly regenerated during the transition in an aborted attempt to reestablish a stationary field. Changes in the field vector are progressive but jerky, with at least two, and possibly three, large swings at astonishingly high rates. Each of those transitional geomagnetic impulses occurs when the field intensity is low (less than 10 μT) and is followed by an interval of directional stasis during which the magnitude of the field increases greatly. For the best documented geomagnetic impulse the rapid directional change corresponds to a vectorial intensity change of 6700±2700 nT yr −1 , which is about 15–50 times larger than the maximum rate of change of the nondipole field observed during the last centuries. The occurrence of geomagnetic impulses seems to support reversal models assuming an increase in the level of turbulence within the liquid core during transitions. The record closes with an estimated several thousand years of normal polarity with an average intensity of 46.7±20.1 μT, agreeing with the expected Miocene value. However, the occurrence of rather large and apparently rapid intensity fluctuations accompanied by little change in direction suggests that the newly reestablished dipole was still somewhat unstable.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2022

Assembling a safe and effective toolbox for integrated flea control and plague mitigation: Fipronil experiments with prairie dogs

Background Plague, a widely distributed zoonotic disease of mammalian hosts and flea vectors, poses a significant risk to ecosystems throughout much of Earth. Conservation biologists use insecticides for flea control and plague mitigation. Here, we evaluate the use of an insecticide grain bait, laced with 0.005% fipronil (FIP) by weight, with black-tailed prairie dogs (BTPDs, Cynomys ludovicianus ). We consider safety measures, flea control, BTPD body condition, BTPD survival, efficacy of plague mitigation, and the speed of FIP grain application vs. infusing BTPD burrows with insecticide dusts. We also explore conservation implications for endangered black-footed ferrets ( Mustela nigripes ), which are specialized predators of Cynomys . Principal findings During 5- and 10-day laboratory trials in Colorado, USA, 2016–2017, FIP grain had no detectable acute toxic effect on 20 BTPDs that readily consumed the grain. During field experiments in South Dakota, USA, 2016–2020, FIP grain suppressed fleas on BTPDs for at least 12 months and up to 24 months in many cases; short-term flea control on a few sites was poor for unknown reasons. In an area of South Dakota where plague circulation appeared low or absent, FIP grain had no detectable effect, positive or negative, on BTPD survival. Experimental results suggest FIP grain may have improved BTPD body condition (mass:foot) and reproduction (juveniles:adults). During a 2019 plague epizootic in Colorado, BTPDs on 238 ha habitat were protected by FIP grain, whereas BTPDs were nearly eliminated on non-treated habitat. Applications of FIP grain were 2–4 times faster than dusting BTPD burrows. Significance Deltamethrin dust is the most commonly used insecticide for plague mitigation on Cynomys colonies. Fleas on BTPD colonies exhibit the ability to evolve resistance to deltamethrin after repeated annual treatments. Thus, more tools are needed. Accumulating data show orally-delivered FIP is safe and usually effective for flea control with BTPDs, though potential acute toxic effects cannot be ruled out. With continued study and refinement, FIP might be used in rotation with, or even replace deltamethrin, and serve an important role in Cynomys and black-footed ferret conservation. More broadly, our stepwise approach to research on FIP may function as a template or guide for evaluations of insecticides in the context of wildlife conservation.

South Dakota↗

USGS2010

Geologic history of Mars

Mars accumulated and differentiated into crust, mantle and core within a few tens of millions of years of Solar System formation. Formation of Hellas, which has been adopted as the base of the Noachian period, is estimated to have occurred around 4.1 to 3.8 Gyr ago, depending on whether or not the planet experienced a late cataclysm. Little is known of the pre-Noachian period except that it was characterized by a magnetic field, subject to numerous large basin-forming impacts, probably including one that formed the global dichotomy. The Noachian period, which ended around 3.7 Gyr ago, was characterized by high rates of cratering, erosion, and valley formation. Most of Tharsis formed and surface conditions were at least episodically such as to cause widespread production of hydrous weathering products such as phyllosilicates. Extensive sulfate deposits accumulated late in the era. Average erosion rates, though high compared with later epochs, fell short of the lowest average terrestrial rates. The record suggests that warm, wet conditions necessary for fluvial activity were met only occasionally, such as might occur if caused by large impacts or volcanic eruptions. At the end of the Noachian, rates of impact, valley formation, weathering, and erosion all dropped precipitously but volcanism continued at a relatively high average rate throughout the Hesperian, resulting in the resurfacing of at least 30% of the planet. Large water floods formed episodically, possibly leaving behind large bodies of water. The canyons formed. The observations suggest the change at the end of the Noachian suppressed most aqueous activity at the surface other than large floods, and resulted in growth of a thick cryosphere. However, presence of discrete sulfate rich deposits, sulfate concentrations in soils, and occasional presence of Hesperian valley networks indicates that water activity did not decline to zero. After the end of the Hesperian around 3 Gyr ago the pace of geologic activity slowed further. The average rate of volcanism during the Amazonian was approximately a factor of ten lower than in the Hesperian and activity was confined largely to Tharsis and Elysium. The main era of water flooding was over, although small floods occurred episodically until geologically recent times. Canyon development was largely restricted to formation of large landslides. Erosion and weathering rates remained extremely low. The most distinctive characteristic of the Amazonian is formation of features that have been attributed to the presence, accumulation, and movement of ice. Included are the polar layered deposits, glacial deposits on volcanoes, ice-rich veneers at high latitudes, and a variety of landforms in the 30–55° latitude belts, including lobate debris aprons, lineated valley fill and concentric crater fill. Most of the gullies on steep slopes also formed late in this era. The rate of formation of the ice-related features and the gullies probably varied as changes in obliquity affected the ice stability relations.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2002

Digital data grids for the magnetic anomaly map of North America

The digital magnetic anomaly database and map for the North American continent is the result of a joint effort by the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), U. S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Consejo de Recursos Minerales of Mexico (CRM). This integrated, readily accessible, modern digital database of magnetic anomaly data is a powerful tool for further evaluation of the structure, geologic processes, and tectonic evolution of the continent and may also be used to help resolve societal and scientific issues that span national boundaries. The North American magnetic anomaly map derived from the digital database provides a comprehensive magnetic view of continental-scale trends not available in individual data sets, helps link widely separated areas of outcrop, and unifies disparate geologic studies. This open-file report presents three unique, gridded data sets used to make the magnetic anomaly map of North America. Subsets of these three grids that span only the United States were also created, giving a total of six grids. Details on the data processing and compilation procedures used to produce the grids are described in the booklet that accompanies the North American magnetic anomaly map. All three grids have 1-km spacing and are projected to the DNAG projection (spherical transverse mercator, central meridian of 100 o W, base latitude of 0o, scale factor of 0.926 and Earth radius of 6,371,204 m.) More details are given in the metadata files that accompany the gridded data files. These grids are presented in Geosoft binary grid format, with two files describing each of the six grids (suffixes .grd and .gi). This format can be easily converted to numerous other formats using the free conversion software offered by this company at http://www.geosoft.com/. The first grids (NAmag_origmrg.grd and USmag_origmrg.grd) show the magnetic field at 305 m. above terrain. For the second grids (NAmag_hp500.grd and USmag_hp500.grd) we removed long-wavelength anomalies (500 km and greater) from the first grid. This grid was used for the published map. Although the North American merged grid represents a significant upgrade to older compilations, the existing patchwork of surveys is inherently unable to accurately represent anomalies with long (greater than roughly 150 km) wavelengths, particularly in the US and Canada (U.S. Magnetic-Anomaly Data Set Task Group, 1994). The lack of information about long wavelength anomalies is primarily related to datum shifts between merged surveys, caused by data acquisition at widely different times and by differences in merging procedures. Therefore, we removed anomalies with wavelengths greater than 500 km from the merged grid to reduce the effects caused by the spurious long wavelengths but still maintain the continuity of anomalies. The correction was accomplished by transforming the merged grid to the frequency domain, filtering the transformed data with a long-wavelength cutoff at 500 km, and subtracting the long-wavelength data grid from the merged grid. In addition to the 500-km high pass filter, an equivalent source method, based on long-wavelength characterization using satellite data (CHAMP satellite anomalies, Maus and others, 2002), was also used to correct for spurious shifts in the original magnetic anomaly grid (Ravat and others, 2002). These results are presented in the third grids (NAmag_CM.grd and USmag_CM.grd), in which the wavelengths longer than 500 km have been replaced by downward-continued satellite data. The steps used to create the third long-wavelength-corrected grid are: 0. The North American 1-km merged grid was decimated to 5 km. 1. This 5-km grid was converted to a 0.05 degree grid and was low-pass filtered using a Gaussian filter with a 500-km cutoff, then decimated to 1 degree. 2. A joint inversion of this 1-degree low-pass aeromagnetic grid and satellite data, with the aeromagnetic data weighted very low, was used to produce a stabilized downward continuation of the satellite data. 3. The inverted data were interpolated to 0.05 degrees and again low-pass filtered using the same Gaussian 500-km filter to remove short-wavelength artifacts. 4. The low-pass grid from step 1 was subtracted from the original 0.05-degree aeromagnetic grid to create a 500-km high-pass aeromagnetic grid. This grid was added to the low-pass inverted grid from step 3 to get a corrected 0.05-degree aeromagnetic grid. 5. The corrected 0.05-degree aeromagnetic grid was projected to the DNAG projection and regridded to 5 km. This was subtracted from the decimated 5-km aeromagnetic grid to generate a 5-km correction grid. A matched filter was used to remove short-wavelength artifacts resulting from the projection and regridding process. 6. The resulting 5-km correction grid was regridded to the original 1-km grid and subtracted from the original 1-km aeromagnetic grid to generate the final 1-km corrected aeromagnetic grid. The six grids described in this report are available for download. Two metadata files, one for the North American grids and one for the United States grids, are also included with the gridded data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2000

Stratigraphic and structural evolution of the Selenga Delta Accommodation Zone, Lake Baikal Rift, Siberia

Seismic reflection profiles from the Lake Baikal Rift reveal extensive details about the sediment thickness, structural geometry and history of extensional deformation and syn-rift sedimentation in this classic continental rift. The Selenga River is the largest single source of terrigenous input into Lake Baikal, and its large delta sits astride the major accommodation zone between the Central and South basins of the lake. Incorporating one of the world's largest lacustrine deltas, this depositional system is a classic example of the influence of rift basin structural segmentation on a major continental drainage. More than 3700 km of deep basin-scale multi-channel seismic reflection (MCS) data were acquired during the 1989 Russian and the 1992 Russian–American field programs. The seismic data image most of the sedimentary section, including pre-rift basement in several localities. The MCS data reveal that the broad bathymetric saddle between these two major half-graben basins is underlain by a complex of severely deformed basement blocks, and is not simply a consequence of long-term deltaic deposition. Maximum sediment thickness is estimated to be more than 9 km in some areas around the Selenga Delta. Detailed stratigraphic analyses of the Selenga area MCS data suggest that modes of deposition have shifted markedly during the history of the delta. The present mode of gravity- and mass-flow sedimentation that dominates the northern and southern parts of the modern delta, as well as the pronounced bathymetric relief in the area, are relatively recent developments in the history of the Lake Baikal Rift. Several episodes of major delta progradation, each extending far across the modern rift, can be documented in the MCS data. The stratigraphic framework defined by these prograding deltaic sequences can be used to constrain the structural as well as depositional evolution of this part of the Baikal Rift. An age model has been established for this stratigraphy, by tying the delta sequences to the site of the Baikal Drilling Project 1993 Drill Hole. Although the drill hole is only 100 m deep, and the base of the cores is only ∼670 ka in age, ages were extrapolated to deeper stratigraphic intervals using the Reflection-Seismic-Radiocarbon method of Cohen et al. (1993). The deep prograding delta sequences now observed in the MCS data probably formed in response to major fluctuations in sediment supply, rather than in response to shifts in lake level. This stratigraphic framework and age model suggest that the deep delta packages developed at intervals of approximately 400 ka and may have formed as a consequence of climate changes affiliated with the northern hemisphere glaciations. The stratigraphic analysis also suggests that the Selenga Basin and Syncline developed as a distinct depocentre only during the past ∼2–3 Ma.

Lake Baikal Rift↗