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At least 1,441 records · Page 80Linked to original sources
USGS2012

The development of a probabilistic approach to forecast coastal change

This study demonstrates the applicability of a Bayesian probabilistic model as an effective tool in predicting post-storm beach changes along sandy coastlines. Volume change and net shoreline movement are modeled for two study sites at Fire Island, New York in response to two extratropical storms in 2007 and 2009. Both study areas include modified areas adjacent to unmodified areas in morphologically different segments of coast. Predicted outcomes are evaluated against observed changes to test model accuracy and uncertainty along 163 cross-shore transects. Results show strong agreement in the cross validation of predictions vs. observations, with 70-82% accuracies reported. Although no consistent spatial pattern in inaccurate predictions could be determined, the highest prediction uncertainties appeared in locations that had been recently replenished. Further testing and model refinement are needed; however, these initial results show that Bayesian networks have the potential to serve as important decision-support tools in forecasting coastal change.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2026

Creating 3D point clouds, digital elevation models, and orthomosaics from historical aerial imagery through structure from motion aided photogrammetry

Detailed and accurate historical data are crucial to characterizing landscape change, whether it is caused by natural phenomena or of anthropogenic origin. Aerial imagery has been periodically collected by government and nongovernment agencies, for a broad range of purposes, since the early 20th century. The acquisition of aerial images involves using standardized equipment with large-format, carefully calibrated cameras and lens assemblies. Historical archives of aerial images preserve a record of the landscape and are invaluable sources of information that predate satellite and lidar. Structure from motion (SfM) aided photogrammetry provides an efficient means for creating digital three-dimensional data from the vast archives of historical aerial imagery. This report presents techniques, methods, best practices, and a standard workflow for creating point clouds, digital elevation models, and orthomosaic digital scans of overlapping (stereographic) vertical aerial photographs using photogrammetry software. A list of critical issues relevant to SfM-aided photogrammetry of historical aerial imagery is provided, along with potential contingencies and solutions. The workflow was tested in many geographic study areas and with historical imagery datasets of different scales and sources. Three case studies are included. By integrating known SfM methods, these procedures enable the consistent and optimal extraction of historical quantitative data from archives like the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Aerial Photo Single Frame archive in the USGS EarthExplorer data portal.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2021

Total phosphorus loadings for the Cedar River at Palo, Iowa, 2009–20

In support of nutrient reduction efforts, total phosphorus loads and yields were computed using turbidity-surrogate and LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST) models for the Cedar River at Palo, Iowa, for January 1, 2009, to December 15, 2020. Sample data were used to create a total phosphorus concentration turbidity-surrogate model. Total phosphorus loads also were computed from two streamflow-based LOADEST load models for the periods 2009–20 and 2016–20. The 2009–20 model was used for comparison with previously published loads at this site. The 2016–20 LOADEST model was used with the turbidity-surrogate model before sensor deployment and during periods of missing sensor data to obtain a more complete annual total phosphorus load. This report presents computed loads and methods needed to compute site-specific loads accurately and track annual progress toward nutrient reduction goals within the State. A comparison of loads from Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season; LOADEST; and surrogate models indicated substantial differences at this site among these methods. Changes in both monitoring approaches (high-frequency sensor and surrogate data) and changes in load-calculation methods present potential challenges in assessing trends, such as assessment of load reduction. Annual total phosphorus loads for the Cedar River at Palo, Iowa, ranged from 1,370 to 2,360 U.S. short tons per year for 2018–20, based on the turbidity-surrogate model with gaps in sensor data filled with the 2016–20 LOADEST model. Annual total phosphorus yields for the Cedar River ranged from 0.67 to 1.16 pounds per acre per year for 2018–20. Although this load estimate is lower than previous estimates for the benchmark period of 2006–10, when normalized by streamflow, nearly all the apparent reduction can be attributed to differences in the load-calculation methods.

Palo↗
USGS2017

Bias correction of bounded location errors in presence-only data

Location error occurs when the true location is different than the reported location. Because habitat characteristics at the true location may be different than those at the reported location, ignoring location error may lead to unreliable inference concerning species–habitat relationships. We explain how a transformation known in the spatial statistics literature as a change of support (COS) can be used to correct for location errors when the true locations are points with unknown coordinates contained within arbitrary shaped polygons. We illustrate the flexibility of the COS by modelling the resource selection of Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ) using citizen contributed records with locations that were reported with error. We also illustrate the COS with a simulation experiment. In our analysis of Whooping Crane resource selection, we found that location error can result in up to a five-fold change in coefficient estimates. Our simulation study shows that location error can result in coefficient estimates that have the wrong sign, but a COS can efficiently correct for the bias.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Assessment of existing groundwater quality data in the Green-Duwamish watershed, Washington

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) provided technical support to the Washington Department of Ecology (Ecology) in their assessment of the role groundwater plays in contributing pollutant loading to the Green-Duwamish River near Seattle, Washington. Ecology is developing watershed hydrology models of the Green-Duwamish watershed, and need to assign realistic contaminant concentrations to the various Hydrologic Response Units represented in their models. The USGS compiled existing groundwater quality data in the Green-Duwamish watershed, and this report summarizes results and interpretation of the dataset, including identifying data gaps and needs for further research and monitoring. The sources of existing data were the USGS’s National Water Information System, Ecology’s Environmental Information Management System, and a compilation of several studies by Leidos, a scientific research company. The water-quality parameters of interest included polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) Aroclors and congeners, phthalates, carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (cPAHs), arsenic, copper, and zinc. Results were grouped into the four subwatersheds delineated in Ecology’s hydrology models: Duwamish, Lower Green, Soos, and Upper Green. Results from the Duwamish subwatershed were further sub-divided by the USGS into the Lower Duwamish, containing land adjacent to the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund site, and the Upper Duwamish, containing the remaining area of the Duwamish subwatershed. Groundwater quality data in the Lower Duwamish were treated separately because there is known contamination in this area. The availability of water quality data varied by subwatershed as follows: phthalate data was only available within the Duwamish, PCB data was available within the Duwamish and Lower Green, cPAH data was available within the Duwamish, Lower Green, and Soos, and data for arsenic, copper, and zinc were available within all four subwatersheds. More than 99 percent of the available data was within the Duwamish subwatershed, identifying a need for additional monitoring of groundwater quality in the other subwatersheds.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Elucidating controls on cyanobacteria bloom timing and intensity via Bayesian mechanistic modeling

The adverse impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) are increasing worldwide. Lake Erie is a North American Great Lake highly affected by cultural eutrophication and summer cyanobacterial HABs. While phosphorus loading is a known driver of bloom size, more nuanced yet crucial questions remain. For example, it is unclear what mechanisms are primarily responsible for initiating cyanobacterial dominance and subsequent biomass accumulation. To address these questions, we develop a mechanistic model describing June–October dynamics of chlorophyll a , nitrogen, and phosphorus near the Maumee River outlet, where blooms typically initiate and are most severe. We calibrate the model to a new, geostatistically-derived dataset of daily water quality spanning 2008–2017. A Bayesian framework enables us to embed prior knowledge on system characteristics and test alternative model formulations. Overall, the best model formulation explains 42% of the variability in chlorophyll a and 83% of nitrogen, and better captures bloom timing than previous models. Our results, supported by cross validation, show that onset of the major midsummer bloom is associated with about a month of water temperatures above 20 °C (occurring 19 July to 6 August), consistent with when cyanobacteria dominance is usually reported. Decreased phytoplankton loss rate is the main factor enabling biomass accumulation, consistent with reduced zooplankton grazing on cyanobacteria. The model also shows that phosphorus limitation is most severe in August, and nitrogen limitation tends to occur in early autumn. Our results highlight the role of temperature in regulating bloom initiation and subsequent loss rates, and suggest that a 2 °C increase could lead to blooms that start about 10 days earlier and grow 23% more intense.

Michigan, Ohio↗
USGS1999

Reactive solute transport in streams: A surface complexation approach for trace metal sorption

A model for trace metals that considers in-stream transport, metal oxide precipitation-dissolution, and pH-dependent sorption is presented. Linkage between a surface complexation submodel and the stream transport equations provides a framework for modeling sorption onto static and/or dynamic surfaces. A static surface (e.g., an iron- oxide-coated streambed) is defined as a surface with a temporally constant solid concentration. Limited contact between solutes in the water column and the static surface is considered using a pseudokinetic approach. A dynamic surface (e.g., freshly precipitated metal oxides) has a temporally variable solid concentration and is in equilibrium with the water column. Transport and deposition of solute mass sorbed to the dynamic surface is represented in the stream transport equations that include precipitate settling. The model is applied to a pH-modification experiment in an acid mine drainage stream. Dissolved copper concentrations were depressed for a 3 hour period in response to the experimentally elevated pH. After passage of the pH front, copper was desorbed, and dissolved concentrations returned to ambient levels. Copper sorption is modeled by considering sorption to aged hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) on the streambed (static surface) and freshly precipitated HFO in the water column (dynamic surface). Comparison of parameter estimates with reported values suggests that naturally formed iron oxides may be more effective in removing trace metals than synthetic oxides used in laboratory studies. The model's ability to simulate pH, metal oxide precipitation-dissolution, and pH-dependent sorption provides a means of evaluating the complex interactions between trace metal chemistry and hydrologic transport at the field scale.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2009

Simulation of Groundwater-Level and Salinity Changes in the Eastern Shore, Virginia

Groundwater-level and salinity changes have been simulated with a groundwater model developed and calibrated for the Eastern Shore of Virginia. The Eastern Shore is the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula that is occupied by Accomack and Northampton Counties in Virginia. Groundwater is the sole source of freshwater to the Eastern Shore, and demands for water have been increasing from domestic, industrial, agricultural, and public-supply sectors of the economy. Thus, it is important that the groundwater supply be protected from overextraction and seawater intrusion. The best way for water managers to use all of the information available is usually to compile this information into a numerical model that can simulate the response of the system to current and future stresses. A detailed description of the geology, hydrogeology, and historical groundwater extractions was compiled and entered into the numerical model. The hydrogeologic framework is composed of a surficial aquifer under unconfined conditions, a set of three aquifers and associated overlying confining units under confined conditions (the upper, middle, and lower Yorktown-Eastover Formation), and an underlying confining unit (the St. Marys Formation). An estimate of the location and depths of two major paleochannels was also included in the framework of the model. Total withdrawals from industrial, commercial, public-supply, and some agricultural wells were compiled from the period 1900 through 2003. Reported pumpage from these sources increased dramatically during the 1960s and 70s, up to currently about 4 million gallons per day. Domestic withdrawals were estimated on the basis of population census districts and were assigned spatially to the model on the assumption that domestic users are located close to roads. A numerical model was created using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) code SEAWAT to simulate both water levels and concentrations of chloride (representing salinity). The model was calibrated using 605 predevelopment and transient water-level observations that are associated predominantly with 20 observation nests of wells sited across the study area. Sampling for groundwater chemistry at these sites revealed that chloride has not increased significantly in the last 20 years. Environmental tracers in the samples also indicated that the water in the surficial aquifer is typically years to decades old, whereas water in the confined aquifers is typically centuries to millennia old. The calibration procedure yielded distributions of hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficients of the aquifers and confining units that are based on 21 pilot points, but vary smoothly across the study area. The estimated values are consistent with other measurements of these properties measured previously on cores and during hydraulic tests at various well fields. Simulations performed with the model demonstrated that the calibrated model can reproduce the observed historical water levels fairly well (R2 = 0.93). The chloride concentrations were also simulated, but a match with chloride concentrations was more difficult to achieve (R2 = 0.16) because of the lack of sufficient data and the unknown exact behavior of the entire transition zone in the millennia leading up to the present day. Future pumping scenarios were simulated through 2050, with pumping set to either 2003 rates or total permitted withdrawal rates. Water levels in 2050 are predicted to be lower than current levels by a few feet where stresses are currently heaviest but potentially by tens of feet if total permitted withdrawals are extracted at current low-stressed sites. Simulations of chloride concentrations through 2050 revealed some potential for seawater intrusion in the areas of Cape Charles, Chincoteague, east of the town of Exmore, and east of the town of Accomac, but precise estimates of concentration increases are highly uncertain. Simulation results were also used to estimate that the down

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2000

Regional evaluation of evapotranspiration in the Everglades

Nine sites in the Florida Everglades were selected and instrumented for collection of data necessary for evapotranspiration-determination using the Bowen-ratio energy-budget method. The sites were selected to represent the sawgrass or cattail marshes, wet prairie, and open-water areas that constitute most of the natural Everglades system. At each site, measurements necessary for evapotranspiration (ET) calculation and modeling were automatically made and stored on-site at 15- or 30-minute intervals. Data collected included air temperature and humidity at two heights, wind speed and direction, incoming solar radiation, net solar radiation, water level and temperature, soil moisture content, soil temperature, soil heat flux, and rainfall. Data summarized in this report were collected from January 1996 through December 1997, and the development of site-specific and regional models of ET for this period is described. Latent heat flux is the energy flux density equivalent of the ET rate. Modified Priestley-Taylor models of latent heat flux as a function of selected independent variables were developed at each site. These models were used to fill in periods of missing latent heat flux measurement, and to develop regional models of the entire Everglades region. The regional models may be used to estimate ET in wet prairie, sawgrass or cattail marsh, and open-water portions of the natural Everglades system. The models are not applicable to forested areas or to the brackish areas adjacent to Florida Bay. Two types of regional models were developed. One type of model uses measurements of available energy at a site, together with incoming solar energy and water depth, to estimate hourly ET. This available-energy model requires site data for net radiation, water heat storage, and soil heat flux, as well as data for incoming solar radiation and water depth. The other type of model requires only incoming solar energy, air temperature, and water depth data to provide estimates of hourly ET. The second model thus uses data that are more readily available than the data required for the available-energy model. Computed ET mean annual totals for all nine sites for the 1996-97 period ranged from 42.4 inches per year at a site where the water level is below land surface for several months each year to 57.4 inches per year at an open-water site with no emergent vegetation. Although the density of photosynthetically-active plant leaves has been shown to relate directly to ET in some studies, it does not appear to relate directly to ET in the Everglades, based on comparison of annual ET data with leaf-area index, defined as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), data from satellite imagery. NDVI and ET appear to be inversely related in the Everglades. The greatest ET rates occurred at open-water sites where the NDVI data indicated the lowest leaf-area index. Among the remaining vegetated sites, there is no clear relation between ET and NDVI, though the highest ET rate corresponded to the lowest NDVI and one of the lowest ET rates corresponded to the highest NDVI value. The variation in ET follows a seasonal pattern, with lowest monthly ET totals occurring in December through February, and highest ET occurring in May through August. The greatest range in monthly ET among all nine sites for the 2-year period occurred at site 3: from 1.81 inches in December 1997 to 6.84 inches in July 1996. A study to compare the Bowen-ratio/energy balance method of ET measurement with the eddy-correlation method was done at one site from June 22, 1998, through September 28, 1998. This comparison indicated that both methods gave comparable values of the Bowen ratio, but there was a considerable difference in available energy measured by the two methods. The mean of all 30-minute measured turbulent heat fluxes from the eddy-correlation apparatus for June 22 through September 29, 1998, was 137.4 watts per square meter, and the mean of the corresponding measured energy was 163.6 watts per square meter, or about 20 percent greater. The disagreement in mean energy fluxes measured by the two methods is problematical and is not fully understood. Although the difference seems to be related to friction velocity, and is practically non-existent at values of friction velocity greater than 0.3 meter per second, the "correctness" of either method cannot be determined with the data available.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Modeling at-sea density of marine birds to support renewable energy planning on the Pacific outer continental shelf of the contiguous United States

This report describes the at-sea spatial distributions of marine birds in Pacific OCS waters off the contiguous U.S. (Figure 1.1) to inform marine spatial planning in the region. The goal was to estimate long-term average spatial distributions for marine bird species using all available science-quality transect survey data and numerous bathymetric, oceanographic, and atmospheric predictor variables. We developed seasonal habitat-based spatial models of the at-sea distribution for 33 individual species and 13 taxonomic groups of marine birds throughout the study region. A statistical modeling framework was used to estimate numerical relationships between bird sighting data (i.e., standardized counts) and a range of temporal (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO] index), spatially static (e.g., depth), and spatially dynamic (e.g., sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration) environmental variables. The estimated relationships were then used to predict spatially explicit long-term average density (individuals per km 2 ) throughout the study area for each species/group in each of four seasons. Bird sighting data came from multiple scientific survey programs and consisted of at-sea counts of birds collected between 1980 and 2017 using boat-based and fixed-wing aerial transect survey methods. Spatial environmental variables were derived from remote sensing satellite data and an ocean dynamics model.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2014

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species’ distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994–1999 and 2003–2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

Ecology↗
USGS2009

Occurrence and distribution of iron, manganese, and selected trace elements in ground water in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States

Dissolved trace elements, including iron and manganese, are often an important factor in use of ground water for drinking-water supplies in the glacial aquifer system of the United States. The glacial aquifer system underlies most of New England, extends through the Midwest, and underlies portions of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. Concentrations of dissolved trace elements in ground water can vary over several orders of magnitude across local well networks as well as across regions of the United States. Characterization of this variability is a step toward a regional screening-level assessment of potential human-health implications. Ground-water sampling, from 1991 through 2003, of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey determined trace element concentrations in water from 847 wells in the glacial aquifer system. Dissolved iron and manganese concentrations were analyzed in those well samples and in water from an additional 743 NAWQA land-use and major-aquifer survey wells. The samples are from monitoring and water-supply wells. Concentrations of antimony, barium, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, strontium, thallium, uranium, and zinc vary as much within NAWQA study units (local scale; ranging in size from a few thousand to tens of thousands of square miles) as over the entire glacial aquifer system. Patterns of trace element concentrations in glacial aquifer system ground water were examined by using techniques suitable for a dataset with zero to 80 percent of analytical results reported as below detection. During the period of sampling, the analytical techniques changed, which generally improved the analytical sensitivity. Multiple reporting limits complicated the comparison of detections and concentrations. Regression on Order Statistics was used to model probability distributions and estimate the medians and other quantiles of the trace element concentrations. Strontium and barium were the most frequently detected and usually were present in the highest concentrations. Iron and manganese were the next most commonly detected and next highest in concentrations. Iron concentrations were the most variable with respect to the range of variations (both within local networks and aquifer-wide) and with respect to the disparity between magnitude of concentrations (detections) and the frequency of samples below reporting limits (nondetections). Antimony, beryllium, cadmium, silver, and thallium were detected too infrequently for substantial interpretation of their occurrence or distributions or potential human-health implications. For those elements that were more frequently detected, there are some geographic patterns in their occurrence that primarily reflect climate effects. The highest concentrations of several elements were found in the West-Central glacial framework area (High Plains and northern Plains areas). There are few important patterns for any element in relation to land use, well type, or network type. Shallow land-use (monitor) wells had iron concentrations generally lower than the glacial aquifer system wells overall and much lower than major-aquifer survey wells, which comprise mostly private- and public-supply wells. Unlike those for iron, concentration patterns for manganese were similar among shallow land-use wells and major-aquifer survey wells. An apparent relation between low pH and relatively low concentrations of many elements, except lead, may be more indicative of the relatively low dissolved-solids content in wells in the Northeastern United States that comprise the majority of low pH wells, than of a pH dependent pattern. Iron and manganese have higher concentrations and larger ranges of concentrations especially under more reducing conditions. Dissolved oxygen and well depth were related to iron and manganese concentrations. Redox conditions also affect several trace elements such as arsenic and copper; however, a comparison of redox categories, based in part on iron and manganese concentrations, indicated that the concentrations of many redox-sensitive elements were not significantly different among redox categories. Some of the redox-related patterns were not what would be expected on the basis of solubility constraints. Furthermore, barium is affected by redox conditions in at least one well network even though it is not a redox-sensitive element. Concentrations of barium in portions of the glacial aquifer system are limited by sulfate, which is strongly affected by redox conditions. Few samples had concentrations of any trace element that exceeded drinking-water standards (Maximum Contaminant Levels), for compounds regulated in drinking water or Health-Based Screening Levels for unregulated trace elements. More unregulated trace elements had concentrations greater than benchmarks than regulated trace elements. More samples had manganese concentrations greater its benchmark than any other element in the glacial aquifer system wells. Of the 1,590 wells sampled for manganese, only 556 are for private or public drinking-water supplies, and of those, 9.9 percent (55) exceeded the manganese Lifetime Health Advisory. Concentrations of arsenic, selenium, and uranium less frequently exceeded Maximum Contaminant Levels. There are 29 wells that had 2 element concentrations that exceeded their respective benchmarks. Most concentrations that exceeded a health-based benchmark were from wells in the West-Central area (Iowa, Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas); however, there is little geographical pattern to the wells with element concentrations of concern.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Simulation of Variable-Density Ground-Water Flow and Saltwater Intrusion beneath Manhasset Neck, Nassau County, New York, 1905-2005

The coastal-aquifer system of Manhasset Neck, Nassau County, New York, has been stressed by pumping, which has led to saltwater intrusion and the abandonment of one public-supply well in 1944. Measurements of chloride concentrations and water levels in 2004 from the deep, confined aquifers indicate active saltwater intrusion in response to public-supply pumping. A numerical model capable of simulating three-dimensional variable-density ground-water flow and solute transport in heterogeneous, anisotropic aquifers was developed using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-element, variable-density, solute-transport simulator SUTRA, to investigate the extent of saltwater intrusion beneath Manhasset Neck. The model is composed of eight layers representing the hydrogeologic system beneath Manhasset Neck. Four modifications to the area?s previously described hydrogeologic framework were made in the model (1) the bedrock-surface altitude at well N12191 was corrected from a previously reported value, (2) part of the extent of the Raritan confining unit was shifted, (3) part of the extent of the North Shore confining unit was shifted, and (4) a clay layer in the upper glacial aquifer was added in the central and southern parts of the Manhasset Neck peninsula. Ground-water flow and the location of the freshwater-saltwater interface were simulated for three conditions (time periods) (1) a steady-state (predevelopment) simulation of no pumping prior to about 1905, (2) a 40-year transient simulation based on 1939 pumpage representing the 1905-1944 period of gradual saltwater intrusion, and (3) a 60-year transient simulation based on 1995 pumpage representing the 1945-2005 period of stabilized withdrawals. The 1939 pumpage rate (12.1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d)) applied to the 1905-1944 transient simulation caused modeled average water-level declines of 2 and 4 feet (ft) in the shallow and deep aquifer systems from predevelopment conditions, respectively, a net decrease of 5.2 Mgal/d in freshwater discharge to offshore areas and a net increase of 6.9 Mgal/d of freshwater entering the model from the eastern, western, and southern lateral boundaries. The 1995 pumpage rate (43.3 Mgal/d) applied to the 1945-2005 transient simulation caused modeled average water-level declines of 5 and 8 ft in the shallow and deep aquifer systems from predevelopment conditions, respectively, a net decrease of 13.2 Mgal/d in freshwater discharge to offshore areas and a net increase of 30.1 Mgal/d of freshwater entering the model from the eastern, western, and southern lateral boundaries. The simulated decrease in freshwater discharge to the offshore areas caused saltwater intrusion in two parts of the deep aquifer system under Manhasset Neck. Saline ground water simulated in a third part of the deep aquifer system under Manhasset Neck was due to the absence of the North Shore confining unit near Sands Point. Simulated chloride concentrations greater than 250 milligrams per liter (mg/L) were used to represent the freshwater-saltwater interface, and the movement of this concentration was evaluated for transient simulations. The decrease in the 1905-1944 simulated freshwater discharge to the offshore areas caused the freshwater-saltwater interface in the deep aquifer system to advance landward more than 1,700 ft from its steady-state position in the vicinity of Baxter Estates Village, Long Island, New York. The decrease in the 1945-2005 simulated freshwater discharge to the offshore areas caused a different area of the freshwater-saltwater interface in the deep aquifer system to advance more than 600 ft from its steady-state position approximately 1 mile south of the Baxter Estates Village. However, the 1945-2005 transient simulation underestimates the concentration and extent of saltwater intrusion determined from water-quality samples collected from wells N12508 and N12793, where measured chloride concentrations increased from 625 and 18 mg/L in 1997 t

Scientific Investigations Report↗