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Using Molecular Genetic Markers to Resolve a Subspecies Boundary: The Northern Boundary of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher in the Four-Corner States

*Executive Summary* The northern boundary of the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is currently approximated as running through southern Colorado and Utah, but the exact placement is uncertain because this subspecies shares a border with the more northern and non-endangered E. t. adastus. To help resolve this issue, we evaluated the geographic distribution of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA by sampling breeding sites across the four-corner states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah). We found that breeding sites clustered into two major groups generally consistent with the currently designated boundary, with the exception of three sites situated along the current boundary. However, delineating a precise boundary that would separate the two subspecies is made difficult because (1) we found evidence for a region of intergradation along the boundary area, suggesting the boundary is not discreet, and (2) the boundary region is sparsely populated, with too few extant breeding populations to precisely locate a boundary. The boundary region encompasses an area where elevation changes markedly over relatively short distances, with low elevation deserts to the south and more mesic, higher elevation habitats to the north. We hypothesized that latitudinal and elevational differences and their concomitant ecological effects could form an ecological barrier that inhibited gene flow between the subspecies, forming the basis for the subspecies boundary. We modeled changes in geographic patterns of genetic markers as a function of latitude and elevation finding significant support for this relationship. The model was brought into a GIS environment to create multiple subspecies boundaries, with the strength of each predicted boundary evaluated on the basis of how much genetic variation it explained. The candidate boundary that accounted for the most genetic variation was situated generally near the currently recognized subspecies boundary, but should be more biologically meaningful because it incorporates the landscape features that may be driving separation of the subspecies. Even so, we caution that using any narrow boundary line as an indicator of subspecies identity could be misleading because biologically the boundary is a region of intergradation rather than a discrete line. Designating, a boundary ultimately becomes a regulatory and management decision based on how much of the genetic variation unique to a subspecies should be protected. We discuss how the results of this study can help guide this decision process by wildlife policy makers.

Open-File Report↗

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the Pacific region of the United States

Although spatial information describing the supply and quality of surface water is critical for managing water resources for human uses and for ecological health, monitoring is expensive and cannot typically be done over large scales or in all streams or waterbodies. To address the need for such data, the U.S. Geological Survey developed SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) for the Pacific region of the U.S. for streamflow and three water-quality constituents–total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment, based on a decadal time frame centered on the year 2012. The domain for these models included the Columbia River basin, the Puget Sound, the coastal drainages of Washington, Oregon, and California, and the Central Valley of California. Landscape runoff (represented by the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) was the largest source of streamflow, wastewater discharge, and atmospheric deposition were the largest contributors to total nitrogen yield from the Pacific region, wastewater discharge was the largest contributor to total phosphorus yield, and forest land was the largest contributor to suspended-sediment yield. Watersheds with relatively high water yields also generally had relatively high yields of total nitrogen, total phosphorous, and suspended sediment–except where there were large contributions from developed land and wastewater discharge. The data used in this study, including many that improved upon existing national data or were compiled specifically for the Pacific region, characterized the complex hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the region more completely than previous models. By using these new datasets, this investigation was able to account for the complex network of water diversions and transfers, quantify the contribution of nutrients from different sources of livestock manure, discern a signal from unpaved logging roads in the suspended-sediment yields from forested coastal watersheds, show how recent wildfire disturbance influences phosphorus and sediment delivery to streams, and how sediment delivery to streams is also sensitive to the intensity of cattle grazing. The results from this study could complement research and inform water-quality management activities in the Pacific region. Examples might include identifying potentially impaired waterbodies and guiding remediation efforts where impairment has been documented, explaining the spatial patterns in harmful algal blooms, and providing estimates of sediment and nutrient loadings to Pacific coast estuaries where such data are scarce or non-existent.

Pacific Region↗

Comparison of data handling techniques for modeling bat acoustic activity

With the proliferation of acoustic sampling to investigate bat distribution and ecology, researchers have implemented a myriad of statistical modeling approaches to interpret findings. Bats are taxa of high conservation concern; therefore, ensuring the accuracy of species-level habitat association models is critical for informing management. We sought to determine prediction differences among statistical approaches to modeling counts of acoustic detections, using generalized linear mixed models with 8 acoustic data-handling techniques. We applied each approach or combination of approaches to a rare species, the northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ), and a common species, the eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ), from summer survey results on a landscape in south-central Pennsylvania, USA, 2024. We evaluated the accuracy of habitat association models of bat acoustic activity at the species level using cross-validation and compared resulting predictions of models using spatial correlations. We determined that filtering data by automated identification software (Kaleidoscope Pro), the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) P -value thresholds reduced relative mean absolute error (rMAE) in cross-validation of northern long-eared bat models. Using the MLE-retained data produced the most accurate predictions over using raw data or the overly conservative match ratio data. However, for the eastern red bat, the results from the most conservative approach of only retaining data with at least a 90% match ratio from software development training sets had the lowest rMAE. We have provided evidence that the current standard of filtering data by nightly MLE can result in more accurate and informative habitat-use acoustic activity models for rare bat species.

Pennsylvania↗

Rangeland songbirds

Songbirds that occur across the diverse types of North American rangelands constitute many families within the Order Passeriformes, and hundreds of species. Most are declining, and many are considered potential indicator species for rangeland ecosystems. We synthesized information on the natural and life history, habitat requirements, conservation status, and responses to management of songbirds associated with North American grasslands and sagebrush steppe, two of the most geographically extensive types of rangelands. We provide a more targeted examination of the habitat associations and management considerations for two focal species, the grassland-obligate grasshopper sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ) and sagebrush-obligate Brewer’s sparrow ( Spizella breweri ). Grassland- and sagebrush-obligate species rely on expansive stands of grasslands and sagebrush, respectively, and we discuss how key ecological processes and rangeland management approaches—grazing, fire, and mechanical treatments—influence rangeland songbirds. Rangeland management practices can affect breeding songbirds considerably, primarily through the resultant structure and composition of vegetation, which influences the availability of preferred nesting substrates, refugia from predators, and foraging success. Optimal management strategies to limit negative consequences to rangeland songbirds will depend on the target species and local topoedaphic and climatic conditions. The maintenance of large, contiguous patches of native habitats and restoration of previously degraded areas will help facilitate the population persistence of rangeland-associated songbirds. Maintaining structural heterogeneity of habitats within landscapes, moreover, can facilitate local species diversity. Information pertaining to periods outside of the nesting stage is severely lacking for most species, which is concerning because effective management necessitates understanding of threats and limiting factors across the full annual life cycle. Moreover, information on disease effects and prevalence, the effects of a changing climate, and how both may interact with management strategies, also comprise key gaps in knowledge.

Book chapter↗

Simulating 2,368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

Changes in water temperatures resulting from climate warming can alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Lake-specific physical characteristics may play a role in mediating individual lake responses to climate. Past mechanistic studies of lake-climate interactions have simulated generic lake classes at large spatial scales or performed detailed analyses of small numbers of real lakes. Understanding the diversity of lake responses to climate change across landscapes requires a hybrid approach that couples site-specific lake characteristics with broad-scale environmental drivers. This study provides a substantial advancement in lake ecosystem modeling by combining open-source tools with freely available continental-scale data to mechanistically model daily temperatures for 2,368 Wisconsin lakes over three decades (1979-2011). The model accurately predicted observed surface layer temperatures (RMSE: 1.74°C) and the presence/absence of stratification (81.1% agreement). Among-lake coherence was strong for surface temperatures and weak for the timing of stratification, suggesting individual lake characteristics mediate some - but not all - ecologically relevant lake responses to climate.

Ecological Modelling↗

Regenerating clearcuts combined with postharvest forestry treatments promote habitat for breeding and post-breeding spruce-fir avian assemblages in the Atlantic Northern Forest

The quantity of spruce-fir forest and some conifer-associated breeding bird abundances in the Atlantic Northern Forest have declined in recent decades emphasizing the need to better understand avian responses to forest management and to identify options that proactively conserve habitat for birds during the breeding and post-breeding period. We conducted avian point counts and vegetation surveys on publicly and privately-owned lands with known management histories to assess relationships between avian assemblages in harvest and postharvest treatments that could provide habitat for passerine birds associated with the spruce-fir forest type. We sampled regenerating conifer-dominated stands 5–41 years-since-harvest (YSH) in three harvest treatments (selection, irregular first-stage shelterwood, and clearcuts) and three postharvest treatments including regenerating clearcuts treated with aerially applied herbicide (e.g., glyphosate), precommercial thinning (PCT), both herbicide and PCT, and mature stands (≥48 YSH). Spruce-fir obligate and associate birds were more abundant in stands with greater spruce-fir tree composition (≥70% and ≥60%, respectively). Avian richness of spruce-fir obligates, associates, and species of concern was greater in clearcuts and clearcuts with postharvest treatments. Vegetative features associated with greater richness and abundance of spruce-fir birds, such as greater spruce-fir composition and smaller tree diameter at breast height, were prominent in regenerating clearcuts and postharvest treatments and suggested that these management practices promote local abundances and richness of spruce-fir birds. Richness and abundances of spruce-fir birds were least in selection, shelterwood, and mature stands, and vegetative features associated with greater richness and abundance of spruce-fir birds were diminished in these stands. Forestry trends in Maine indicate that the extent of the clearcut suite of treatments has decreased on the landscape while selection and shelterwood harvests have increased. Thus, changes in incentives for managers to apply even-aged management coupled with post-harvest applications of herbicides or precommercial thinning might mitigate further declines in habitat for spruce-fir passerines assemblages. A greater ratio of clearcuts with postharvest treatments 11–40 YSH compared to other treatments (mature forest ≥48 YSH, selection and shelterwood 5–41 YSH) would maintain diverse spruce-fir bird communities on the landscape. Use of clearcuts with postharvest treatments in the hemiboreal forests of northern New England, southern Quebec, and Maritime Provinces of eastern Canada may enhance habitat for breeding and post-breeding spruce-fir birds, especially where the quantity of conifer forests are declining and residual patches of conifers are increasingly fragmented.

Atlantic Northern Forest↗

Editorial: Fire regimes in desert ecosystems: Drivers, impacts and changes

Although not commonly associated with fire, many desert ecosystems across the globe do occasionally burn, and there is evidence that fire incidences are increasing, leading to altered fire regimes in this biome. The increased prevalence of megafires (wildfires >10,000 ha in size and typically damaging) in most global biomes is linked to climate change, although those occurring in deserts have received far less attention, from both a research and policy perspective, than that of forested ecosystems ( Linley et al., 2022 ). Understanding the drivers of desert fires, from climate to landscape patterns of hydrology and soil, and how these may be changing in the face of anthropogenic pressures, such as invasive species, livestock grazing, and global climate change, is imperative. This Research Topic has published nine papers addressing these drivers, how they have changed, and their impacts on desert biodiversity.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Assessing mosquito populations to limit the spread of avian disease and inform the conservation of Hawaiian forest birds

The introduced mosquito-borne avian malaria, Plasmodium relictum , along with its mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus , are key limiting factors for endemic Hawaiian forest birds and are, in part, responsible for past extinctions and continued population declines of extant species. In the last 10 years steep declines in forest bird populations have been documented on Kaua`i and Maui. Presently two endemic species on Kaua`i, `Akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and `Akeke`e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ) and two endemic species on Maui, Kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ) and `Ākohekohe, ( Palmeria dolei ) are facing extinction. These declines have been attributed to avian malaria transmission exacerbated by climate change. While little can be done to reduce the effects of climate change on vector abundance and transmission, recent innovations in landscape-level mosquito suppression and eradication may provide new tools to control or eliminate vectors from forest bird habitat. The current management focus is on the development and implementation of a Wolbachia -based Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) to reduce vector abundance. IIT involves using naturally occurring strains of Wolbachia , an endosymbiotic bacterium of C. quinquefasciatus and other arthropods, to facilitate reproductive incompatibility and infertility through cross matings. Through sustained releases of male mosquitoes infected with incompatible Wolbachia , wild mosquito populations can be suppressed. To meet regulatory approval for large-scale releases and achieve successful deployment and suppression, key ecological parameters (population density, dispersal, and survivorship) need to be assessed. Mark-release-recapture (MRR) techniques are commonly used to estimate these parameters outside of the Hawaiian Islands. Mark-release-recapture entails the capture of a portion of the population which is marked by a harmless method and then released back into the wild. The results of a subsequent or multiple recapture event(s) provide the proportion of marked individuals to unmarked individuals that can be mathematically analyzed to estimate populations size, survival, and dispersal. In this study, a MRR trial with wild-captured and laboratory-reared C. quinquefasciatus was conducted in a native forest on the Island of Hawai`i. The results provide some of the first estimates for (1) population abundance, (2) survivorship, and (3) movement of C. quinquefasciatus in forest bird habitat to support regulatory approvals and to advance and improve IIT mosquito control efforts in the State of Hawaii.

Hawaii↗

Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

Exotic plant species invade hot spots of native plant diversity

Some theories and experimental studies suggest that areas of low plant species richness may be invaded more easily than areas of high plant species richness. We gathered nested-scale vegetation data on plant species richness, foliar cover, and frequency from 200 1-m 2 subplots (20 1000-m 2 modified-Whittaker plots) in the Colorado Rockies (USA), and 160 1-m 2 subplots (16 1000-m 2 plots) in the Central Grasslands in Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Minnesota (USA) to test the generality of this paradigm. At the 1-m 2 scale, the paradigm was supported in four prairie types in the Central Grasslands, where exotic species richness declined with increasing plant species richness and cover. At the 1-m 2 scale, five forest and meadow vegetation types in the Colorado Rockies contradicted the paradigm; exotic species richness increased with native-plant species richness and foliar cover. At the 1000-m 2 plot scale (among vegetation types), 83% of the variance in exotic species richness in the Central Grasslands was explained by the total percentage of nitrogen in the soil and the cover of native plant species. In the Colorado Rockies, 69% of the variance in exotic species richness in 1000-m 2 plots was explained by the number of native plant species and the total percentage of soil carbon. At landscape and biome scales, exotic species primarily invaded areas of high species richness in the four Central Grasslands sites and in the five Colorado Rockies vegetation types. For the nine vegetation types in both biomes, exotic species cover was positively correlated with mean foliar cover, mean soil percentage N, and the total number of exotic species. These patterns of invasibility depend on spatial scale, biome and vegetation type, spatial autocorrelation effects, availability of resources, and species-specific responses to grazing and other disturbances. We conclude that: (1) sites high in herbaceous foliar cover and soil fertility, and hot spots of plant diversity (and biodiversity), are invasible in many landscapes; and (2) this pattern may be more closely related to the degree resources are available in native plant communities, independent of species richness. Exotic plant invasions in rare habitats and distinctive plant communities pose a significant challenge to land managers and conservation biologists.

Ecological Monographs↗

Using multilevel spatial models to understand salamander site occupancy patterns after wildfire

Studies of the distribution of elusive forest wildlife have suffered from the confounding of true presence with the uncertainty of detection. Occupancy modeling, which incorporates probabilities of species detection conditional on presence, is an emerging approach for reducing observation bias. However, the current likelihood modeling framework is restrictive for handling unexplained sources of variation in the response that may occur when there are dependence structures such as smaller sampling units that are nested within larger sampling units. We used multilevel Bayesian occupancy modeling to handle dependence structures and to partition sources of variation in occupancy of sites by terrestrial salamanders (family Plethodontidae) within and surrounding an earlier wildfire in western Oregon, USA. Comparison of model fit favored a spatial N ‐mixture model that accounted for variation in salamander abundance over models that were based on binary detection/non‐detection data. Though catch per unit effort was higher in burned areas than unburned, there was strong support that this pattern was due to a higher probability of capture for individuals in burned plots. Within the burn, the odds of capturing an individual given it was present were 2.06 times the odds outside the burn, reflecting reduced complexity of ground cover in the burn. There was weak support that true occupancy was lower within the burned area. While the odds of occupancy in the burn were 0.49 times the odds outside the burn among the five species, the magnitude of variation attributed to the burn was small in comparison to variation attributed to other landscape variables and to unexplained, spatially autocorrelated random variation. While ordinary occupancy models may separate the biological pattern of interest from variation in detection probability when all sources of variation are known, the addition of random effects structures for unexplained sources of variation in occupancy and detection probability may often more appropriately represent levels of uncertainty.

Ecology↗

Controls on methane concentrations and fluxes in streams draining human-dominated landscapes

Streams and rivers are active processors of carbon, leading to significant emissions of CO 2 and possibly CH 4 to the atmosphere. Patterns and controls of CH 4 in fluvial ecosystems remain relatively poorly understood. Furthermore, little is known regarding how major human impacts to fluvial ecosystems may be transforming their role as CH 4 producers and emitters. Here, we examine the consequences of two distinct ecosystem changes as a result of human land use: increased nutrient loading (primarily as nitrate), and increased sediment loading and deposition of fine particles in the benthic zone. We did not find support for the hypothesis that enhanced nitrate loading down-regulates methane production via thermodynamic or toxic effects. We did find strong evidence that increased sedimentation and enhanced organic matter content of the benthos lead to greater methane production (diffusive + ebullitive flux) relative to pristine fluvial systems in northern Wisconsin (upper Midwest, USA). Overall, streams in a human-dominated landscape of southern Wisconsin were major regional sources of CH 4 to the atmosphere, equivalent to ~20% of dairy cattle emissions, or ~50% of a landfill’s annual emissions. We suggest that restoration of the benthic environment (reduced fine deposits) could lead to reduced CH 4 emissions, while decreasing nutrient loading is likely to have limited impacts to this ecosystem process.

Wisconsin↗

Stable isotopes reveal that foraging strategy dictates trophic response of salt marsh residents to black mangrove Avicennia germinans range expansion

Climate warming has facilitated the expansion of black mangrove Avicennia germinans (hereafter ‘ Avicennia ’) into smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora (hereafter ‘ Spartina ’) salt marshes in southeastern Louisiana (USA). As macrophytes contribute to soil organic matter (SOM) and primary production, this transition could alter the basal energy pathways supporting salt marsh food webs. We used bulk-tissue and compound-specific stable isotope analyses (SIA) to determine if changes in dominant macrophytes alter basal energy pathways for 2 salt marsh residents: grass shrimp ( Palaemonetes spp.) and marsh periwinkle snails Littoraria irrorata . Specifically, we used Bayesian stable isotope mixing models to quantify the relative contribution of basal energy sources to SOM and resident food webs across a Spartina - Avicennia gradient in southeastern Louisiana. We found that sources of SOM changed in Avicennia -dominated habitat and that foraging strategy dictated trophic responses of salt marsh residents to Avicennia expansion. Marsh periwinkle snail basal energy sources shifted from Spartina to algae (phytoplankton and epiphytic macroalgae) reliance, while grass shrimp basal energy sources remained reliant on algal production, regardless of macrophyte dominance. Compound-specific SIA improved basal energy source distinctions and provided more constrained estimates of their contributions to resident food webs than bulk-tissue SIA. The importance of algal energy across the landscape warrants future investigations into the ability of Avicennia to support the diversity and abundance of algal energy sources present in Louisiana salt marshes. Understanding coastal wetland food web dynamics could help with planning and evaluating the most effective coastal restoration techniques (e.g. prioritizing salt marsh or mangrove habitat) in southeastern Louisiana.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

Ecological evaluation of the abundance and effects of elk herbivory in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, 1994-1999

Several National Park Service units in the Intermountain region possess a number of closely related management needs relative to the abundance of wild ungulates and their herbivory effects on plants and ecosystem processes. In 1993, the then National Biological Service (NBS) - now U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Discipline (USGS, BRD)­ initiated a series of research studies in four park units in the Intermountain West., into the abundance and effects of ungulates on park ecosystems. Each of these parks received a number of similar research study elements including: (a) a number of new ungulate grazing exclosures (n = 12-21 exclosures per park); (b) aerial survey sightability models to estimate population sizes of ungulates; (e) measures of biomass production and consumption rates near the exclosures and across the landscape; (d) studies of the effects of the grazing on plant abundance, species diversity, and ecosystem effects; and (e) computer model simulations (SAVANNA) of the effects on the ecosystem and plant resources of different ungulate management scenarios. One park unit, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, received funding from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, BRD) and parallel funding from NPS for an intensive research study of the effects of elk on the park ecosystems.

Colorado↗

On incorporating fire into our thinking about natural ecosystems: A response to Saha and Howe

Ecologists long have had a fascination with fire impacts, although they have been slow to incorporate this ecological factor into serious thinking about the structure of communities and evolution of species (Bond and van Wilgen 1996). The remarks by Saha and Howe (2001, in this issue) illustrate some of the problems ecologists have in trying to apply fire to their thinking about natural ecosystems. Fire is commonly perceived qualitatively in terms of presence or absence, and the variation in frequency and intensity, as well as other components of the fire regime (e.g., fig. 1), is ignored. Often not considered is the fact that plant life histories are fine-tuned to particular fire regims, and in this regard, landscapes present a range of selective peaks and valleys, both figuratively and literally. Because landscape patterns affect the propagation of natural fires, it is imperative that the degree of human disturbance be considered (e.g. Marsh [1864] 1965; Gadgil and Guhu 1993) and the limitations of basing evolutionary arguments on anthropogenically derived landscapes be recognized (e.g., Janzen and Martin 1982).

American Naturalist↗

Northern goshawk monitoring in the western Great Lakes bioregion

Uncertainties about factors affecting Northern Goshawk ( Accipiter gentilis ) ecology and the status of populations have added to the challenge of managing this species. To address data needs for determining the status of goshawk populations, Hargis and Woodbridge (2006) developed a bioregional monitoring protocol based on estimating occupancy. The goal of our study was to implement this protocol and collect data to determine goshawk population status in the western Great Lakes (WGL) bioregion, which encompasses portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and is a mixture of private and public property. We used 366 goshawk nest locations obtained between 1979 and 2006 throughout the WGL bioregion to develop a model of landscape use consisting of forest canopy cover and land-cover covariates. We then used the model to develop a stratified sampling design for selecting 600-ha Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) to survey for goshawks. Project collaborators surveyed 86 PSUs for goshawk presence using broadcasted calls twice between mid-May and mid-August 2008, and recorded 30 goshawk detections in 21 different PSUs. Seventy-four percent of detections occurred at call stations with canopy closure >75%. Goshawk detection probabilities were 0.549 ± 0.118 (standard error) for the first visit to PSUs and 0.750 ± 0.126 for the second visit. We estimated the proportion of PSUs occupied by goshawks as 0.266 ± 0.047, which corresponded to 5184 ± 914 PSUs occupied by goshawks in our study area and suggested that goshawks are widely, but sparsely, distributed throughout the WGL bioregion.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Error propagation in energetic carrying capacity models

Conservation objectives derived from carrying capacity models have been used to inform management of landscapes for wildlife populations. Energetic carrying capacity models are particularly useful in conservation planning for wildlife; these models use estimates of food abundance and energetic requirements of wildlife to target conservation actions. We provide a general method for incorporating a foraging threshold (i.e., density of food at which foraging becomes unprofitable) when estimating food availability with energetic carrying capacity models. We use a hypothetical example to describe how past methods for adjustment of foraging thresholds biased results of energetic carrying capacity models in certain instances. Adjusting foraging thresholds at the patch level of the species of interest provides results consistent with ecological foraging theory. Presentation of two case studies suggest variation in bias which, in certain instances, created large errors in conservation objectives and may have led to inefficient allocation of limited resources. Our results also illustrate how small errors or biases in application of input parameters, when extrapolated to large spatial extents, propagate errors in conservation planning and can have negative implications for target populations.

Journal of Conservation Planning↗

Assessment of spatial genetic structure to identify populations at risk for infection of an emerging epizootic disease

Understanding the geographic extent and connectivity of wildlife populations can provide important insights into the management of disease outbreaks but defining patterns of population structure is difficult for widely distributed species. Landscape genetic analyses are powerful methods for identifying cryptic structure and movement patterns that may be associated with spatial epizootic patterns in such cases. We characterized patterns of population substructure and connectivity using microsatellite genotypes from 2,222 white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, a region where chronic wasting disease was first detected in 2009. The goal of this study was to evaluate the juxtaposition between population structure, landscape features that influence gene flow, and current disease management units. Clustering analyses identified four to five subpopulations in this region, the edges of which corresponded to ecophysiographic provinces. Subpopulations were further partitioned into 11 clusters with subtle ( F ST ≤ 0.041), but significant genetic differentiation. Genetic differentiation was lower and migration rates were higher among neighboring genetic clusters, indicating an underlying genetic cline. Genetic discontinuities were associated with topographic barriers, however. Resistance surface modeling indicated that gene flow was diffuse in homogenous landscapes, but the direction and extent of gene flow were influenced by forest cover, traffic volume, and elevational relief in subregions heterogeneous for these landscape features. Chronic wasting disease primarily occurred among genetic clusters within a single subpopulation and along corridors of high landscape connectivity. These results may suggest a possible correlation between population substructure, landscape connectivity, and the occurrence of diseases for widespread species. Considering these factors may be useful in delineating effective management units, although only the largest features produced appreciable differences in subpopulation structure. Disease mitigation strategies implemented at the scale of ecophysiographic provinces are likely to be more effective than those implemented at finer scales.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗