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Modelling community dynamics based on species-level abundance models from detection/nondetection data

1. In large‐scale field surveys, a binary recording of each species’ detection or nondetection has been increasingly adopted for its simplicity and low cost. Because of the importance of abundance in many studies, it is desirable to obtain inferences about abundance at species‐, functional group‐, and community‐levels from such binary data. 2. We developed a novel hierarchical multi‐species abundance model based on species‐level detection/nondetection data. The model accounts for the existence of undetected species, and variability in abundance and detectability among species. Species‐level detection/nondetection is linked to species‐level abundance via a detection model that accommodates the expectation that probability of detection (at least one individuals is detected) increases with local abundance of the species. We applied this model to a 9‐year dataset composed of the detection/nondetection of forest birds, at a single post‐fire site (from 7 to 15 years after fire) in a montane area of central Japan. The model allocated undetected species into one of the predefined functional groups by assuming a prior distribution on individual group membership. 3. The results suggest that 15–20 species were missed in each year, and that species richness of communities and functional groups did not change with post‐fire forest succession. Overall abundance of birds and abundance of functional groups tended to increase over time, although only in the winter, while decreases in detectabilities were observed in several species. 4. Synthesis and applications . Understanding and prediction of large‐scale biodiversity dynamics partly hinge on how we can use data effectively. Our hierarchical model for detection/nondetection data estimates abundance in space/time at species‐, functional group‐, and community‐levels while accounting for undetected individuals and species. It also permits comparison of multiple communities by many types of abundance‐based diversity and similarity measures under imperfect detection.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Community maturity, species saturation and the variant diversity- productivity relationships in grasslands

Detailed knowledge of the relationship between plant diversity and productivity is critical for advancing our understanding of ecosystem functioning and for achieving success in habitat restoration efforts. However, effects and interactions of diversity, succession and biotic invasions on productivity remain elusive. We studied newly established communities in relation to preexisting homogeneous vegetation invaded by exotic plants in the northern Great Plains, USA, at four study sites for 3 years. We observed variant diversity-productivity relationships for the seeded communities (generally positive monotonic at three sites and non-monotonic at the other site) but no relationships for the resident community or the seeded and resident communities combined at all sites and all years. Community richness was enhanced by seeding additional species but productivity was not. The optimal diversity (as indicated by maximum productivity) changed among sites and as the community developed. The findings shed new light on ecosystem functioning of biodiversity under different conditions and have important implications for restoration. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Ecology Letters↗

Multi-state succession in wetlands: a novel use of state and transition models

The complexity of ecosystems and mechanisms of succession are often simplified by linear and mathematical models used to understand and predict system behavior. Such models often do not incorporate multivariate, nonlinear feedbacks in pattern and process that include multiple scales of organization inherent within real-world systems. Wetlands are ecosystems with unique, nonlinear patterns of succession due to the regular, but often inconstant, presence of water on the landscape. We develop a general, nonspatial state and transition (S and T) succession conceptual model for wetlands and apply the general framework by creating annotated succession/management models and hypotheses for use in impact analysis on a portion of an imperiled wetland. The S and T models for our study area, Water Conservation Area 3A South (WCA3), Florida, USA, included hydrologic and peat depth values from multivariate analyses and classification and regression trees. We used the freeware Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool as an exploratory application to evaluate our S and T models with different management actions (equal chance [a control condition], deeper conditions, dry conditions, and increased hydrologic range) for three communities: slough, sawgrass ( Cladium jamaicense ), and wet prairie. Deeper conditions and increased hydrologic range behaved similarly, with the transition of community states to deeper states, particularly for sawgrass and slough. Hydrology is the primary mechanism for multi-state transitions within our study period, and we show both an immediate and lagged effect on vegetation, depending on community state. We consider these S and T succession models as a fraction of the framework for the Everglades. They are hypotheses for use in adaptive management, represent the community response to hydrology, and illustrate which aspects of hydrologic variability are important to community structure. We intend for these models to act as a foundation for further restoration management and experimentation which will refine transition and threshold concepts.

Florida↗

Rapid assessment indicator of wetland integrity as an unintended predictor of avian diversity

Rapid assessment of aquatic ecosystems has been widely implemented, sometimes without thorough evaluation of the robustness of rapid assessment metrics as indicators of ecological integrity. Here, we evaluate whether the Ohio Rapid Assessment Method (ORAM) for Wetlands Version 5.0 is a useful indicator of ecological integrity beyond its intended purpose. ORAM was developed to categorize natural wetlands for regulatory purposes and to contribute to the development of indicators of biotic integrity. It was never intended for use as an index of the quality of habitat for wetland birds. Nonetheless, it is conceivable that ORAM scores could serve as adequate predictors of avian diversity. We evaluated whether avian species richness in wetlands could be reliably predicted from each of the following variables: (1) total ORAM score, (2) total score minus the score for one metric that did not apply to all wetlands, and (3) sum of scores for the four ORAM components (of 16 scored) with the highest potential point total. These four components corresponded to aquatic vegetation communities, microtopography, modifications to natural hydrologic regime, and sources of water. All three variables were significant predictors of both total species richness and mean species richness of birds of conservation concern. Variable (3) was a significant predictor of mean species richness of wetland-dependent birds. Variable (2) was a weak predictor of both total and mean species richness of all birds combined. These results extend the robustness of ORAM as an indicator of the ecological integrity of wetlands.

Hydrobiologia↗

Terrestrial fauna are agents and endpoints in ecosystem restoration following dam removal

Dam removal is an effective and increasingly applied river restoration strategy. This has led to heightened calls for research and monitoring aimed at understanding physical and ecological outcomes following dam removal. While such research programs have increased, roles of terrestrial fauna in the restoration process remain poorly understood, although wildlife and invertebrate fauna are key components of restored ecosystems. Wildlife play reciprocal roles in restoration: they benefit from restored habitats and their activities affect restoration trajectories. Dam removal exposes substrates on former reservoirs and reconnects river corridors, providing new habitat and food resources for terrestrial fauna. Conversely, many wildlife may influence the river restoration process, with both short-term and long-term consequences for community composition, nutrient transfer, and ecosystem function. We assert that considering terrestrial fauna more directly in river restoration research and planning can enhance restoration outcomes. We illustrate these concepts by describing short-term patterns and potential future processes expected from the recent removal of two large dams on the Elwha River in Washington State, the largest dam removal effort ever undertaken. We conclude that an ecosystem-level understanding of restoration following dam removal is critical to fully assessing the impacts and benefits of restoration. This includes measuring the roles and responses of terrestrial fauna to these ecologically and culturally significant restoration projects.

Ecological Restoration↗

Water quality and aquatic communities of upland wetlands, Cumberland Island National Seashore, Georgia, April 1999 to July 2000

Cumberland Island is the southernmost and largest barrier island along the coast of Georgia. The island contains about 2,500 acres of freshwater wetlands that are located in a variety of physical settings, have a wide range of hydroperiods, and are influenced to varying degrees by surface and ground water, rainwater, and seawater. In 1999-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, conducted a water-quality study of Cumberland Island National Seashore to document and interpret the quality of a representative subset of surface- and ground-water resources for management of the seashore's natural resources. As part of this study, historical ground-water, surface-water, and ecological studies conducted on Cumberland Island also were summarized. Surface-water samples from six wetland areas located in the upland area of Cumberland Island were collected quarterly from April 1999 to March 2000 and analyzed for major ions, nutrients, trace elements, and field water-quality constituents including specific conductance, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, alkalinity, tannin and lignin, and turbidity. In addition, water temperature and specific conductance were recorded continuously from two wetland areas located near the mean high-tide mark on the Atlantic Ocean beaches from April 1999 to July 2000. Fish and invertebrate communities from six wetlands were sampled during April and December 1999. The microbial quality of the near-shore Atlantic Ocean was assessed in seawater samples collected for 5 consecutive days in April 1999 at five beaches near campgrounds where most recreational water contact occurs. Ground-water samples were collected from the Upper Floridan aquifer in April 1999 and from the surficial aquifer in April 2000 at 11 permanent wells and 4 temporary wells (drive points), and were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, trace elements, and field water-quality constituents (conductivity, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and alkalinity). Fecal-coliform bacteria concentrations were measured, but not detected, in samples collected from two domestic water-supply wells. During the 12-month period from April 1999 to March 2000 when water-quality and aquatic-community samples were collected, rainfall was 12.93 inches below the 30-year average rainfall. Constituent concentrations were highly variable among the different wetlands during the study period. Rainfall and tidal surges associated with tropical storms and hurricanes substantially influenced water quantity and quality, particularly in wetland areas directly influenced by tidal surges. Although surface waters on Cumberland Island are not used as sources of drinking water, exceedances of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary and secondary standards for drinking water were noted for comparative purposes. A nitrate concentration of 12 milligrams per liter in one sample from Whitney outflow was the only exceedance of a maximum contaminant level. Secondary standards were exceeded in 26 surface-water samples for the following constituents: pH (10 exceedances), chloride (8), sulfate (5), total dissolved solids (4), iron (2), fluoride (1), and manganese (1). The total-dissolved-solids concentrations and the relative abundance of major ions in surface-water samples collected from wetlands on Cumberland Island provide some insight into potential sources of water and influences on water quality. Major-ion chemistries of water samples from Whitney Lake, Willow Pond, and South End Pond 3 were sodium-chloride dominated, indicating direct influence from rainwater, salt aerosol, or inundation of marine waters. The remaining wetlands sampled had low total-dissolved-solids concentrations and mixed major-ion chemistries--North Cut Pond 2A was magnesium-sodium-chloride-sulfate dominated and Lake Retta and the two beach outflows were sodium-calcium-bicarbonate-chloride dominated. The higher percent calcium and bicarbonate in some wetlands sugg

Georgia↗

2005 annual progress report: Elk and bison grazing ecology in the Great Sand Dunes complex of lands

In 2000 the U.S. Congress authorized the expansion of the former Great Sand Dunes National Monument by establishing a new Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve in its place, and establishing the Baca National Wildlife Refuge. The establishment of Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and the new Baca National Wildlife Refuge in the San Luis Valley (SLV), Colorado was one of the most significant land conservation actions in the western U.S. in recent years. The action was a result of cooperation between the National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), U.S. Forest Service (USDA-FS), and The Nature Conservancy (TNC). The new national park, when fully implemented, will consist of 107,265 acres, the new national preserve 41,872 acres, and the new national wildlife refuge (USFWS lands) 92,180 acres (fig. 1). The area encompassed by this designation protects a number of natural wonders and features including a unique ecosystem of natural sand dunes, the entire watershed of surface and groundwaters that are necessary to preserve and recharge the dunes and adjacent wetlands, a unique stunted forest, and other valuable riparian vegetation communities that support a host of associated wildlife and bird species. When the National Park was initially established, there were concerns about overconcentrations and impacts on native plant communities of the unhunted segments of a large and possibly growing elk (Cervus elaphus) population. This led to the designation of the Preserve as a compromise solution, where the elk could be harvested. The Preserve Unit, however, will not address all the ungulate management challenges. In order to reduce the current elk population, harvests of elk may need to be aggressive. But aggressive special hunts of elk to achieve population reductions can result in elk avoidance of certain areas or elk seeking refuge in areas where they cannot be hunted, while removals of whole herd segments and abandonment or alterations of migration routes can occur (Smith and Robbins, 1994; Boyce and others, 1991). Elk may seek refuge from hunting in the newly expanded Park Unit and TNC lands where they might overconcentrate and impact unique vegetation communities. In these sites of refugia, or preferred loafing sites, elk and bison could accelerate a decline in woody riparian shrubs and trees. This decline may also be due to changes in hydrology, climatic, or dunal processes, but ungulate herbivory might exacerbate the effects of those processes. To address the questions and needs of local resource managers, a multi-agency research project was initiated in 2005 to study the ecology, forage relations, and habitat relations of elk and bison in the Great Sand Dunes–Sangre de Cristo–Baca complex of lands. Meetings and discussions of what this research should include were started in 2001 with representatives from NPS, USFWS, TNC, the Colorado Division of Wildlife (CDOW), and USDA-FS/BLM. The final study plan was successfully funded in 2004 with research scheduled to start in 2005. The research was designed to encompass three major study elements: (1) animal movements and population dynamics, (2) vegetation and nutrient effects from ungulate herbivory, and (3) development of ecological models, using empirical data collected from the first two components, that will include estimates of elk carrying capacity and management scenarios for resource managers.

Colorado↗

Ecological comparisons of Lake Erie tributaries with elevated incidence of fish tumors

Ecological comparisons were made between two Lake Erie tributaries (Black and Cuyahoga rivers) with contaminated sediments and elevated rates of tumors in fish populations and a third, relatively unpolluted, reference tributary, the Huron River. Fish populations, benthic invertebrates, and sediments were evaluated in all three Ohio rivers. Community structure analyses indicated similar total densities but lower species diversity for fish and benthic invertebrates in the contaminated rivers when compared with the reference river. Growth rates in fish from the contaminated areas were either similar to or higher than those offish from the reference site. Brown bullhead ( Ameiurus nebulosus ) from the two contaminated tributaries exhibited 51% (Black River) and 45% (Cuyahoga River) incidence of liver lesions (neoplastic and preneoplastic) as compared with a 4% incidence of liver lesions in brown bullhead from the reference river (Huron River). Incidence of external abnormalities on brown bullhead was 54% (Black River) and 73% (Cuyahoga River) as compared with a 14% incidence on fish from the Huron River. On a regional basis, incidence of external abnormalities on particular benthic fish species may be an effective method to quickly indicate areas for more intensive contaminant studies.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

The influence of aridity and fire on Holocene prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula

The role of climate and fire in the development, maintenance, and species composition of prairie in the eastern axis of the tallgrass Prairie Peninsula intrigued early North American ecologists. However, evaluation of the long-standing hypotheses about the region's environmental history has been hampered by the scarcity of paleorecords. We conducted multiproxy analyses on early and middle Holocene sediments from two Illinois, USA, lakes to assess long-term climatic, vegetational, and fire variability in the region. Sediment mineral composition, carbonate ??18O, ostracode assemblages, and diatom assemblages were integrated to infer fluctuations in moisture availability. Pollen and charcoal ??13C were used to reconstruct vegetation composition, and charcoal influx was used to reconstruct fire. Results indicate that fire-sensitive trees (e.g., Ulmus, Ostrya, Fraxinus, and Acer saccharum) declined and prairie taxa expanded with increased aridity from 10 000 yr BP to 8500 yr BP. Between ???8500 yr BP and ???6200 yr BP, aridity declined, and prairie coexisted with fire-sensitive and fire-tolerant (e.g., Quercus and Carya) trees. After ???6200 yr BP, prairie taxa became dominant, although aridity was not more severe than it was around 8500 yr BP. Along with aridity, fire appears to have played an important role in the establishment and maintenance of prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula, consistent with the speculations of the early ecologists. Comparison of our data with results from elsewhere in the North American midcontinent indicates that spatial heterogeneity is a characteristic feature of climatic and vegetational variations on millennial time scales. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

Benthic infaunal communities of Baltimore and Norfolk Canyons

The imperative for finding, cataloging, and understanding continental margin diversity derives from the many key functions, goods and services provided by margin ecosystems and by an increasingly deleterious human footprint on our continental slopes (Levin and Dayton 2009). Progress in seafloor mapping technology and direct observation has revealed unexpected heterogeneity, with a mosaic of habitats and ecosystems linked to geomorphological, geochemical, and hydrographic features that are capable of influencing biotic diversity (Levin and Sibuet 2012). Submarine canyons are dramatic and widespread topographic features crossing continental and island margins in oceans, connecting shelf-margins to deep ocean basins (Harris and Whiteway 2011). Their importance as biodiversity hotspots has continued to emerge over the last two decades as research efforts have increased. Understanding the physical parameters within a canyon system is a primary factor for understanding habitat variability and ecological patterns within the confines of canyon systems (Levin et al. 2001). Margin sediments exhibit ubiquitous depth zonation (Carney et al. 2005), with a diverse suite of species that occupy restricted bathymetric ranges along any given section of the margin. Major shifts in composition among taxa are observed at the shelf-slope transition zone (canyons <500 m), along the upper slope (1,000 m), and at the lower slope transition zone (<3,000 m) (Gibson et al. 2005). In the deep sea, macrofaunal assemblages are generally limited by the availability of allochthonous organic material (Rowe et al. 1982, Billet et al. 1983, Rex et al. 2005, Smith et al. 2008) where macrofaunal densities usually decline with depth and distance from the shore (Rowe et al. 1982, Houston and Haedrich 1984, Rex et al. 2005). However, canyon fauna can experience enhanced food supply through the resuspension and deposition of organic-rich sediments, delivered by increased current velocities within the confines of the canyon (Rowe 1971, Shepard et al. 1974). As a result, canyons are often reported as sustaining enhanced abundances and biomass compared with nearby open slope habitats at similar depths (Vetter and Dayton 1998, Duineveld et al. 2001, De Leo et al. 2010) as well as enhancing regional (γ) and local (α) biodiversity (Hecker et al. 1983, Vetter and Dayton 1998, De Leo et al. 2010, Vetter et al. 2010). Furthermore, enhanced habitat heterogeneity can also be a major structuring agent of ecological assemblages, promoting beta (β) diversity (McClain and Barry 2010) in canyon environments. Canyon systems have often been described as biodiversity hotspots, especially at mid-slope depths (Levin and Sibuet 2012) where physical processes, characterized by complex patterns in hydrography, promote topographically induced upwelling, enhanced mixing via internal tides, and the focusing of tidal bores (Vetter and Dayton 1998, Cacchione et al. 2002). Additionally, sediment transport and accumulation (García et al. 2008) represent important influential ecological drivers. Factors such as substrata heterogeneity (Levin and Sibuet 2012) and concentration of organic matter (De Leo et al. 2010) have been suggested to explain higher faunal diversity, abundance, and benthic productivity found in canyon systems compared with surrounding areas. Bathymetric patterns of species diversity have been attributed to changes in sediment characteristics (Etter and Grassle 1992), productivity, currents, oxygen, disturbance, and the interplay of biotic effects with depth and latitude (Levin et al. 2001, Carney et al. 2005). Recent studies report on the uniqueness of canyon benthic communities and habitats and the view that no two canyons are alike (Cunha et al. 2011). Certain submarine canyons may maintain 436 characteristic and unique faunas, but more often canyon macrofaunal assemblages show high dominance and locally reduced biodiversity (Rowe 1971, Gage 1997, Curdia et al. 2004, Cun

Baltimore Canyon, Norfolk Canyon↗

Understanding ocean acidification impacts on organismal to ecological scales

Ocean acidification (OA) research seeks to understand how marine ecosystems and global elemental cycles will respond to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry in combination with other environmental perturbations such as warming, eutrophication, and deoxygenation. Here, we discuss the effectiveness and limitations of current research approaches used to address this goal. A diverse combination of approaches is essential to decipher the consequences of OA to marine organisms, communities, and ecosystems. Consequently, the benefits and limitations of each approach must be considered carefully. Major research challenges involve experimentally addressing the effects of OA in the context of large natural variability in seawater carbonate system parameters and other interactive variables, integrating the results from different research approaches, and scaling results across different temporal and spatial scales.

Oceanography↗

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and other contaminants of concern in tribal waters of Montana

We assessed potential exposures to a broad suite of contaminants (inorganic, organic and microbial) in culturally important surface waters from three watersheds in a northern plains Native American community (Apsáalooke [Crow Tribe of Montana]) in south-central Montana, United States, with water insecurity concerns. Inorganic (37), organic (435) and microbial (3) constituents were assessed in 12 surface water sites from the Pryor Creek ( n = 2), Bighorn River ( n = 2) and Little Bighorn River ( n = 8) valleys. Twenty-six organics, 33 inorganics and Escherichia coli were detected. Despite relatively low concentrations in surface waters within the Crow Reservation, mixture toxicity indicated prevalent chronic ecological effects and human-health secondary contact (recreation) effects at multiple sites. Further, to address Tribal concerns over the prevalence and corresponding risks of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), we sampled water, sediment, biofilms and fish at a limited number of locations in the Little Bighorn River. Results indicated that PFAS were prevalent in fish tissues, including whole blood and filets, and to a lesser extent in biofilms, despite few detections in water and sediment samples. This is the first attempt to document environmental PFAS contamination within the reservation and the potential human-health concerns for the general population from consumption of recreational/subsistence fish. Overall, this effort provided preliminary information on the contaminant mixtures present and their potential health implications, which can support the protection of community health and culturally meaningful resources across the Crow Reservation.

Montana↗

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States↗

Empirical Bayes estimation of proportions with application to cowbird parasitism rates

Bayesian models provide a structure for studying collections of parameters such are considered in the investigation of communities, ecosystems, and landscapes. This structure allows for improved estimation of individual parameters by considering them in the context of a group of related parameters. Individual estimates are differntially adjusted toward in overall mean, with the magnitude of their adjustment based on their precision. Consequently, Bayesian estimation allows for a more reliable ranking of parameters and, in particular, a more credible identification of extreme values from a collection of estimates. In Bayesian models, individual parameters are regarded as values sampled from a specified probability distribution, called a prior. The requirements that the prior be known is often regarded as an unattractive feature of Bayesian analysis and may be the reason Bayesian analyses are not frequently applied in ecological studies. Empirical Bayes methods provide an alternative approach that incorporates the structural advantages of Bayesian models while requirng a less stringent specification of prior knowledge. Empirical Bayes methods require only that the prior be in a certain family of distributions, indexed by hyperparameters that can be estimated from the available data. This structur is of interest per se, in addition to its value in allowing for improved estimation of individual parameters; for example, hypothese regarding the existence of distinct subgroups in a collection of paramet ers can be considered under the empirical Bayes framework by allowing the hyperparameters to vary among subgroups. We describe the empirical Bayes approach in application to estimation of proportions, using data obtained in a community—wide study Brown—headed Cowbird paratism rates for illustration. Empirical Bayes estimates identify those species for which there is the greatest evidence of extreme parasitism rates. Subgroup analysis of our data on cowbird parasitism rates indicates that parasitisms rates for neotropical migrants as a group are no greater than those of resident/short—distance migrant in this forest community. Our data and analyses demonstrate that the parasitism rates for certain neotropical migrant species (Wood Thrush and Rose—breasted Grosbeak) are remarkably low while those for others (Ovenbird and Red—eyed Vireo) are remarkably high.

Ecology↗

Disturbance is the primary determinant of food chain length when the top predator is constant

Food chain length (FCL) is a primary determinant of food web structure and is hypothesized to be influenced by habitat size, productivity, and disturbance. Understanding the environmental characteristics that determine food chain length can assist in understanding how food webs may be impacted due to changes in habitats and environmental characteristics. This study examines the impact of hydrologic disturbance on stream food webs when the top predator is constant. We analyzed FCL in less disturbed groundwater flashy streams and more disturbed runoff flashy streams using stable isotopes. Despite no difference in species richness or fish density, food chains in more disturbed streams had a lower FCL compared to food chains in more stable streams. Assemblage analysis showed that flow regime and drainage area significantly impacted individual species abundances. The more disturbed runoff flashy streams had higher proportions of primary consumer fish, such as the algivorous Campostoma sp. (Stonerollers), which likely drives the reduced FCL. Drainage area and land cover had non-significant relationships with FCL. Shifting community structure due to hydrologic variability likely leads to differences in diet of Micropterus dolomieu (Smallmouth Bass), and thus a difference in FCL.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

Diets of double-crested cormorants in the Winnebago System, Wisconsin

Double-crested cormorant Phalacrocorox auritus Lesson (cormorant) populations have increased throughout the Great Lakes region of North America causing concern related to the impact of cormorant predation on fish communities. A recent decline in yellow perch Perca flavescens (Mitchill) abundance within the Lake Winnebago System, Wisconsin, USA, prompted an assessment of cormorant diets to evaluate potential effects of cormorant predation on the sportfish community. Diets were collected from 883 cormorants (417 from Lake Winnebago and 466 from Lake Butte des Morts) between 2015 and 2017. Cormorant diets on both waterbodies consisted mostly of freshwater drum Aplodinotus grunniens Rafinesque and gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum (Lesueur). Yellow perch and walleye Sander vitreus (Mitchill) observations were infrequent and represented < 5% of cormorant diets by weight each year. Under current conditions, cormorant predation likely has minimal impact on the Lake Winnebago sportfish community, but more research is needed to assess potential impacts on Lake Butte des Morts.

Wisconsin↗

Fish size structures in lakes of the Lower Mississippi River floodplain

The Lower Mississippi River has a floodplain that includes >1350 perennial lakes carved by shifts in river courses and other hydro-fluvial processes over eons. Notwithstanding their similar provenances, these waterbodies exhibit an immense variety of morphologies and successional stages that illustrate their natural trajectory from aquatic to forested wetlands. A result of this geographical, morphological and temporal diversity is dynamic and varied fish communities. We examined how size structures of fish communities in these floodplain lakes were associated with key in-lake and off-lake environmental drivers. Fish lengths were collected with standardised procedures in a sample of 30 of these lakes to construct a lake-by-length group matrix. Likewise, in-lake and off-lake environmental descriptors were collected to construct a lake-by-covariate matrix. Distance-based linear models were used to assess associations between fish size structure and environmental descriptors. Smaller fish were typically associated with increasing levels of turbidity, chlorophyll- a , phycocyanin and surrounding agriculture. Shallow, hypereutrophic floodplain lakes associated with agricultural landscapes and reduced connectivity experience harsh physicochemical environments. These conditions appeared to hinder the formation of sustained fish communities but may confer a survival advantage to juveniles or small short-lived species. Conversely, larger fish were associated with increasing lake depth, water clarity, connectivity, and extent of surrounding forests-wetlands. Enhanced stability and size structure were observed in communities residing in deeper and clearer lakes, suggesting that these conditions facilitated the development of longer-lived species spanning multiple age groups. The enhanced connectivity that facilitated this increased stability also permitted the presence of larger itinerant species. Size-structure assessments can serve as a valuable ecological and biodiversity indicator in floodplain lakes. Size-structure assessments could supplement and, depending on objectives, even supplant conventional taxonomic analyses, and enhance surveillance of this vast and important natural resource.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennes↗

Fire, land cover, and temperature drivers of bat activity in winter

Background Understanding the effects of disturbance events, land cover, and weather on wildlife activity is fundamental to wildlife management. Currently, in North America, bats are of high conservation concern due to white-nose syndrome and wind-energy development impact, but the role of fire as a potential additional stressor has received less focus. Although limited, the vast majority of research on bats and fire in the southeastern United States has been conducted during the growing season, thereby creating data gaps for bats in the region relative to overwintering conditions, particularly for non-hibernating species. The longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris Mill.) ecosystem is an archetypal fire-mediated ecosystem that has been the focus of landscape-level restoration in the Southeast. Although historically fires predominately occurred during the growing season in these systems, dormant-season fire is more widely utilized for easier application and control as a means of habitat management in the region. To assess the impacts of fire and environmental factors on bat activity on Camp Blanding Joint Training Center (CB) in northern Florida, USA, we deployed 34 acoustic detectors across CB and recorded data from 26 February to 3 April 2019, and from 10 December 2019 to 14 January 2020. Results We identified eight bat species native to the region as present at CB. Bat activity was related to the proximity of mesic habitats as well as the presence of pine or deciduous forest types, depending on species morphology ( i.e., body size, wing-loading, and echolocation call frequency). Activity for all bat species was influenced positively by either time since fire or mean fire return interval. Conclusion Overall, our results suggested that fire use provides a diverse landscape pattern at CB that maintains mesic, deciduous habitat within the larger pine forest matrix, thereby supporting the diverse bat community at CB during the dormant season and early spring.

Florida↗