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At least 1,441 records · Page 80Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2018

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2012

The paleohydrology of unsaturated and saturated zones at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and vicinity

Surface, unsaturated-zone, and saturated-zone hydrologic conditions at Yucca Mountain responded to past climate variations and are at least partly preserved by sediment, fossil, and mineral records. Characterizing past hydrologic conditions in surface and subsurface environments helps to constrain hydrologic responses expected under future climate conditions and improve predictions of repository performance. Furthermore, these records provide a better understanding of hydrologic processes that operate at time scales not readily measured by other means. Pleistocene climates in southern Nevada were predominantly wetter and colder than the current interglacial period. Cyclic episodes of aggradation and incision in Fortymile Wash, which drains the eastern slope of Yucca Mountain, are closely linked to Pleistocene climate cycles. Formation of pedogenic cement is favored under wetter Pleistocene climates, consistent with increased soil moisture and vegetation, higher chemical solubility, and greater evapotranspiration relative to Holocene soil conditions. The distribution and geochemistry of secondary minerals in subsurface fractures and cavities reflect unsaturated-zone hydrologic conditions and the response of the hydrogeologic system to changes in temperature and percolation flux over the last 12.8 m.y. Physical and fluid-inclusion evidence indicates that secondary calcite and opal formed in air-filled cavities from fluids percolating downward through connected fracture pathways in the unsaturated zone. Oxygen, strontium, and carbon isotope data from calcite are consistent with a descending meteoric water source but also indicate that water compositions and temperatures evolved through time. Geochronological data indicate that secondary mineral growth rates are less than 1–5 mm/m.y., and have remained approximately uniform over the last 10 m.y. or longer. These data are interpreted as evidence for hydrological stability despite large differences in surface moisture caused by climate shifts between the Miocene and Pleistocene and between Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. Secondary mineral distribution and δ18O profiles indicate that evaporation in the shallower welded tuffs reduces infiltration fluxes. Several near-surface and subsurface processes likely are responsible for diverting or dampening infiltration and percolation, resulting in buffering of percolation fluxes to the deeper unsaturated zone. Cooler and wetter Pleistocene climates resulted in increased recharge in upland areas and higher water tables at Yucca Mountain and throughout the region. Discharge deposits in the Amargosa Desert were active during glacial periods, but only in areas where the modern water table is within 7–30 m of the surface. Published groundwater models simulate water-table rises beneath Yucca Mountain of as much as 150 m during glacial climates. However, most evidence from Fortymile Canyon up gradient from Yucca Mountain limits water-table rises to 30 m or less, which is consistent with evidence from discharge sites in the Amargosa Desert. The isotopic compositions of uranium in tuffs spanning the water table in two Yucca Mountain boreholes indicate that Pleistocene water-table rises likely were restricted to 25–50 m above modern positions and are in approximate agreement with water-table rises estimated from zeolitic-to-vitric transitions in the Yucca Mountain tuffs (less than 60 m in the last 11.6 m.y.).

Nevada↗
USGS2009

Modeling to evaluate the response of savanna-derived cropland to warming–drying stress and nitrogen fertilizers

Many savannas in West Africa have been converted to croplands and are among the world’s regions most vulnerable to climate change due to deteriorating soil quality. We focused on the savanna-derived cropland in northern Ghana to simulate its sensitivity to projected climate change and nitrogen fertilization scenarios. Here we show that progressive warming–drying stress over the twenty-first century will enhance soil carbon emissions from all kinds of lands of which the natural ecosystems will be more vulnerable to variation in climate variables, particularly in annual precipitation. The carbon emissions from all croplands, however, could be mitigated by applying nitrogen fertilizer at 30–60 kg N ha − 1 year − 1 . The uncertainties of soil organic carbon budgets and crop yields depend mainly on the nitrogen fertilization rate during the first 40 years and then are dominated by climate drying stress. The replenishment of soil nutrients, especially of nitrogen through fertilization, could be one of the priority options for policy makers and farm managers as they evaluate mitigation and adaptation strategies of cropping systems and management practices to sustain agriculture and ensure food security under a changing climate.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2020

Soil biogeochemical responses of a tropical forest to warming and hurricane disturbance

Tropical forests represent <15% of Earths terrestrial surface yet support >50% of the planets species and play a disproportionately large role in determining climate due to the vast amounts of carbon they store and exchange with the atmosphere. Currently, disturbance patterns in tropical ecosystems are changing due to factors such as increased land use pressure and an occurrence of hurricanes. At the same time, these regions are expected to experience unprecedented warming before 2100. Despite the importance of these ecosystems for forecasting the global consequences of multiple stressors, our understanding of how projected changes in climate and disturbance will affect the biogeochemical cycling of tropical forests remains in its infancy. Until now, no studies to our knowledge have evaluated forest recovery following hurricane disturbance within the context of concurrent climatic change. Here, we present soil biogeochemical results from a tropical forest field warming experiment in Puerto Rico where, a year after experimental warming began, Hurricanes Irma and Mara greatly altered the forest, allowing a unique opportunity to explore the interacting effects of hurricane disturbance and warming. We tracked post-hurricane forest recovery for a year without warming to assess legacy effects of prior warming on the disturbance response, and then reinitiated warming treatments to further evaluate interactions between forest recovery and warmer temperatures. The data showed that warming affected multiple aspects of soil biogeochemical cycling even in the first year of treatment, with particularly large positive effects on soil microbial biomass pools (e.g., increases of 54, 43, and 46% relative to the control plots were observed for microbial biomass carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, respectively after 6 months of warming). We also observed significant effects of the hurricanes on soil biogeochemical cycling, as well as interactive controls of warming and disturbance. Taken together, our results showed dynamic soil responses that suggest the future of biogeochemical cycling in this tropical wet forest will be strongly shaped by the directional effects of warming and the episodic effects of hurricanes.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2011

Effects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

Context: Hunting-related (hereafter harvest) mortality is assumed to be compensatory in many exploited species. However, when harvest mortality is additive, hunting can lead to population declines, especially on public land where hunting pressure can be intense. Recent studies indicate that excessive hunting may have contributed to the decline of a northern bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ) population in south Florida. Aims: This study aimed to estimate population growth rates to determine potential and actual contribution of vital rates to annual changes in population growth rates, and to evaluate the role of harvest and climatic variables on bobwhite population decline. Methods: We used demographic parameters estimated from a six-year study to parameterise population matrix models and conduct prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses. Key results: The stochastic population growth rate (λ S = 0.144) was proportionally more sensitive to adult winter survival and survival of fledglings, nests and broods from first nesting attempts; the same variables were primarily responsible for annual changes in population growth rate. Demographic parameters associated with second nesting attempts made virtually no contribution to population growth rate. All harvest scenarios consistently revealed a substantial impact of harvest on bobwhite population dynamics. If the lowest harvest level recorded in the study period (i.e. 0.08 birds harvested per day per km 2 in 2008) was applied, λ S would increase by 32.1%. Winter temperatures and precipitation negatively affected winter survival, and precipitation acted synergistically with harvest in affecting winter survival. Conclusions: Our results suggest that reduction in winter survival due to overharvest has been an important cause of the decline in our study population, but that climatic factors might have also played a role. Thus, for management actions to be effective, assessing the contribution of primary (e.g. harvesting) but also secondary factors (e.g. climate) to population decline may be necessary. Implications: Reducing hunting pressure would be necessary for the recovery of the bobwhite population at our study site. In addition, an adaptive harvest management strategy that considers weather conditions in setting harvest quota would help reverse the population decline further.

Florida↗
USGS2020

Planktic foraminiferal test size and weight response to the late Pliocene environment

Atmospheric carbon dioxide ( p CO 2 atm ) is impacting the ocean and marine organisms directly via changes in carbonate chemistry and indirectly via a range of changes in physical parameters most dominantly temperature. To assess potential impacts of climate change on carbonate production in the open ocean, we measured size and weight of planktic foraminifers during the late Pliocene at p CO 2 atm concentrations comparable to today and global temperatures 2 to 3 °C warmer. Size of all foraminifers was measured at Atlantic Ocean Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 610, Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 999, and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1313. Test size was smaller during the Pliocene than in modern assemblages under the same environmental conditions. During the cold marine isotope stage (MIS) M2, size increased at Site 999, potentially linked to intensified stratification of the surface ocean in response to the closure of the Central American Seaway. At Site U1313, test size tracks the warming throughout the late Pliocene. Size-normalized weight (SNW) of Globigerina bulloides at Site U1313 decreased during warmer temperature intervals. SNW of Globigerinoides ruber (white) at Site 999 displays high-frequency variability not correlated to temperature. Yet during the glacial period within MIS M2, test weight was higher during higher temperatures. Our results support studies in the modern ocean, which challenge the view that carbonate chemistry is the primary driver for calcification. To better understand processes driving changes in SNW, computer tomography was used to quantify calcite to volume ratios. During interglacial periods, lower calcite volume but higher test volume suggests less suitable conditions for calcification. As this signal is not evident in SNW, subtle changes in calcification might not be observed by the weight-based method.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗
USGS2022

Mortality associated with extreme heat in Washington State: The historical and projected public health burden

Extreme heat is one of the most important pathways illustrating the connection between climate and human health, and climate change is expected to exacerbate this public health issue. This study first used a case-crossover analysis to characterize the historical (1980–2018) association between summertime heat and non-traumatic mortality in Washington State. A separate analysis was conducted for each of the state’s ten climate divisions to produce distinct exposure–response curves expressing odds of mortality as a function of humidex. Stratified analyses were used to assess the impact of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and select causes of death, and the reported results are pooled across all divisions using meta-analysis. The historical heat–mortality relationship was combined with climate projections to estimate the impact of climate change on heat-related deaths in 2030, 2050, and 2080 under two warming scenarios. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals of mortality at the 99th percentile of humidex compared to the 50th percentile did not include the null value in four climate divisions (E Olympic Cascade Foothills, NE Olympic San Juan, Northeastern, and Puget Sound Lowlands). The statewide odds of mortality are 8% higher (6%, 10%) on 99th percentile days compared to 50th percentile days, driven primarily by an OR of 1.09 (1.06, 1.11) in the Puget Sound Lowlands. Risk is higher for women than men and for Blacks than Whites. Risk increases with age and for diabetic, circulatory, cardiovascular, ischemic, cerebrovascular, and respiratory deaths. The 95% confidence intervals of projected heat-attributable mortality did not overlap with zero in three climate divisions (E Olympic Cascade Foothills, NE Olympic San Juan, and Puget Sound Lowlands). In these three divisions, the average percent increase in heat-attributable mortality across both warming scenarios is 35%, 35%, and 603% in 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively. This research is the most extensive study of heat-related mortality in Washington to date and can help inform public health initiatives aiming to improve present and future health outcomes in the state.

Washington↗
USGS2018

Flooding alters plant-mediated carbon cycling independently of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Plant‐mediated processes determine carbon (C) cycling and storage in many ecosystems; how plant‐associated processes may be altered by climate‐induced changes in environmental drivers is therefore an essential question for understanding global C cycling. In this study, we hypothesize that environmental alterations associated with near‐term climate change can exert strong control on plant‐associated ecosystem C cycling and that investigations along an extended hydrologic gradient may give mechanistic insight into C cycling. We utilize a mesocosm approach to investigate the response of plant, soil, and gaseous C cycling to changing hydrologic regimes and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations expected by 2100 in a coastal salt marsh in Louisiana, USA. Although elevated CO 2 had no significant effects on C cycling, we demonstrate that greater average flooding depth stimulated C exchange, with higher rates of labile C decomposition, plant CO 2 assimilation, and soil C respiration. Greater average flooding depth also significantly decreased the soil C pool and marginally increased the aboveground biomass C pool, leading to net losses in total C stocks. Further, flooding depths along an extended hydrologic gradient garnered insight into decomposition mechanisms that was not apparent from other data. In C‐4 dominated salt marshes, sea‐level rise will likely overwhelm effects of elevated CO 2 with climate change. Deeper flooding associated with sea‐level rise may decrease long‐term soil C pools and quicken C exchange between soil and atmosphere, thereby threatening net C storage in salt marsh habitats. Manipulative studies will be indispensable for understanding biogeochemical cycling under future conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS1996

Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A. using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soil water flux will result in larger increases in soil- adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distribution of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading.

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution↗
USGS2024

Fire effects on geomorphic processes

Fire-induced geomorphic changes, such as enhanced erosion and debris-flow activity, are expected to increase with climate change owing to increases in fire activity and rainfall intensification. In this Review, we summarize how landscape attributes, rainfall and burn severity influence post-fire geomorphic responses over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Sub-hourly rainfall intensity and burn severity control the magnitude of many post-fire geomorphic process rates through their influence on ground cover and rainfall-runoff partitioning. Post-fire debris flows (PFDFs) make a substantial contribution to the post-fire sediment cascade, transporting sediment from hillslopes to channels, adjacent floodplains and alluvial fans. By the late twenty-first century, PFDF activity is estimated to increase in 68% of areas in which PFDFs have occurred in the past and decrease in only 2% of locations. Once altered by fire, geomorphic state variables — such as infiltration capacity, canopy cover, ground cover and sediment availability — can recover to their pre-fire value or be shifted to a new value. Improved understanding of the factors that influence these post-fire trajectories could support targeted management and intervention strategies. Additionally, monitoring that extends beyond the first 1–3 years after fire and deeper integration of ecohydrological processes into geomorphic models are needed to improve forecasts of post-fire geomorphic responses.

Nature Reviews Earth and Environment↗
USGS2018

Tropical cyclone projections: Changing climate threats for Pacific Island defense installations

Potential changing climate threats in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific Ocean were assessed, using coupled ocean-atmosphere and atmosphere-only general circulation models, to explore their response to projected increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Tropical cyclone occurrence, described by their frequency and intensity, near islands housing major U.S. defense installations was the primary focus. Four island regions—Guam and Kwajalein Atoll in the tropical northwestern Pacific, Okinawa in the subtropical northwestern Pacific, and O‘ahu in the tropical northcentral Pacific—were considered, as they provide unique climate and geographical characteristics that either enhance or reduce the tropical cyclone risk. Guam experiences the most frequent and severe tropical cyclones, which often originate as weak systems close to the equator near Kwajalein and sometimes track far enough north to affect Okinawa, whereas intense storms are the least frequent around O‘ahu. From assessments of models that simulate well the tropical Pacific climate, it was determined that, with a projected warming climate, the number of tropical cyclones is likely to decrease for Guam and Kwajalein but remain about the same near Okinawa and O‘ahu; however, the maximum intensity of the strongest storms may increase in most regions. The likelihood of fewer but stronger storms will necessitate new localized assessments of the risk and vulnerabilities to tropical cyclones in the North Pacific.

Weather, Climate, and Society↗
USGS2009

Comparative endocrinology in the 21st century

Hormones coordinate developmental, physiological, and behavioral processes within and between all living organisms. They orchestrate and shape organogenesis from early in development, regulate the acquisition, assimilation, and utilization of nutrients to support growth and metabolism, control gamete production and sexual behavior, mediate organismal responses to environmental change, and allow for communication of information between organisms. Genes that code for hormones; the enzymes that synthesize, metabolize, and transport hormones; and hormone receptors are important targets for natural selection, and variation in their expression and function is a major driving force for the evolution of morphology and life history. Hormones coordinate physiology and behavior of populations of organisms, and thus play key roles in determining the structure of populations, communities, and ecosystems. The field of endocrinology is concerned with the study of hormones and their actions. This field is rooted in the comparative study of hormones in diverse species, which has provided the foundation for the modern fields of evolutionary, environmental, and biomedical endocrinology. Comparative endocrinologists work at the cutting edge of the life sciences. They identify new hormones, hormone receptors and mechanisms of hormone action applicable to diverse species, including humans; study the impact of habitat destruction, pollution, and climatic change on populations of organisms; establish novel model systems for studying hormones and their functions; and develop new genetic strains and husbandry practices for efficient production of animal protein. While the model system approach has dominated biomedical research in recent years, and has provided extraordinary insight into many basic cellular and molecular processes, this approach is limited to investigating a small minority of organisms. Animals exhibit tremendous diversity in form and function, life-history strategies, and responses to the environment. A major challenge for life scientists in the 21st century is to understand how a changing environment impacts all life on earth. A full understanding of the capabilities of organisms to respond to environmental variation, and the resilience of organisms challenged by environmental changes and extremes, is necessary for understanding the impact of pollution and climatic change on the viability of populations. Comparative endocrinologists have a key role to play in these efforts.

Integrative and Comparative Biology↗
USGS2024

Multigenerational, indirect exposure to pyrethroids demonstrates potential compensatory response and reduced toxicity at higher salinity in estuarine fish

Estuarine environments are critical to fish species and serve as nurseries for developing embryos and larvae. They also undergo daily fluctuations in salinity and act as filters for pollutants. Additionally, global climate change (GCC) is altering salinity regimes within estuarine systems through changes in precipitation and sea level rise. GCC is also likely to lead to an increased use of insecticides to prevent pests from damaging agricultural crops as their habitats and mating seasons change from increased temperatures. This underscores the importance of understanding how insecticide toxicity to fish changes under different salinity conditions. In this study, larval Inland Silversides ( Menidia beryllina ) were exposed to bifenthrin (1.1 ng/L), cyfluthrin (0.9 ng/L), or cyhalothrin (0.7 ng/L) at either 6 or 10 practical salinity units (PSU) for 96 h during hatching, with a subset assessed for end points relevant to neurotoxicity and endocrine disruption by testing behavior, gene expression of a select suite of genes, reproduction, and growth. At both salinities, directly exposed F0 larvae were hypoactive relative to the F0 controls; however, the indirectly exposed F1 larvae were hyperactive relative to the F1 control. This could be evidence of a compensatory response to environmentally relevant concentrations of pyrethroids in fish. Effects on development, gene expression, and growth were also observed. Overall, exposure to pyrethroids at 10 PSU resulted in fewer behavioral and endocrine disruptive effects relative to those observed in organisms at 6 PSU.

Environmental Science and Technology↗
USGS2016

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye ( Sander vitreus ) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989–2014) and future (2040–2064 and 2065–2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33–75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27–60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Hydrologic and geomorphic changes resulting from episodic glacial lake outburst floods: Rio Colonia, Patagonia, Chile

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a prominent but poorly understood cryospheric hazard in a warming climate. We quantify the hydrologic and geomorphic response to 21 episodic GLOFs that began in April 2008 using multitemporal satellite imagery and field observations. Peak discharge exiting the source lake became progressively muted downstream. At ~40–60 km downstream, where the floods entered and traveled down the main stem Rio Baker, peak discharges were generally < 2000 m 3 s −1 , although these flows were still >1–2 times the peak annual discharge of this system, Chile's largest river by volume. As such, caution must be applied to empirical relationships relating lake volume to peak discharge, as the latter is dependent on where this observation is made along the flood path. The GLOFs and subsequent periods of free drainage resulted in > 40 m of incision, the net removal of ~25 × 10 6 m 3 of sediment from the source lake basin, and a nonsteady channel configuration downstream. These results demonstrate that GLOFs sourced from low‐order tributaries can produce significant floods on major main stem rivers, in addition to significantly altering sediment dynamics.

Cachet‐Colonia‐Baker Valley, Patagonia, Rio Coloni↗
USGS2015

Late Holocene sea- and land-level change on the U.S. southeastern Atlantic Coast

Late Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions can be used to estimate rates of land-level (subsidence or uplift) change and therefore to modify global sea-level projections for regional conditions. These reconstructions also provide the long-term benchmark against which modern trends are compared and an opportunity to understand the response of sea level to past climate variability. To address a spatial absence of late Holocene data in Florida and Georgia, we reconstructed ~ 1.3 m of RSL rise in northeastern Florida (USA) during the past ~ 2600 years using plant remains and foraminifera in a dated core of high salt-marsh sediment. The reconstruction was fused with tide-gauge data from nearby Fernandina Beach, which measured 1.91 ± 0.26 mm/year of RSL rise since 1900 CE. The average rate of RSL rise prior to 1800 CE was 0.41 ± 0.08 mm/year. Assuming negligible change in global mean sea level from meltwater input/removal and thermal expansion/contraction, this sea-level history approximates net land-level (subsidence and geoid) change, principally from glacio-isostatic adjustment. Historic rates of rise commenced at 1850–1890 CE and it is virtually certain ( P = 0.99) that the average rate of 20th century RSL rise in northeastern Florida was faster than during any of the preceding 26 centuries. The linearity of RSL rise in Florida is in contrast to the variability reconstructed at sites further north on the U.S. Atlantic coast and may suggest a role for ocean dynamic effects in explaining these more variable RSL reconstructions. Comparison of the difference between reconstructed rates of late Holocene RSL rise and historic trends measured by tide gauges indicates that 20th century sea-level trends along the U.S. Atlantic coast were not dominated by the characteristic spatial fingerprint of melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Host responses and viral traits interact to shape the impacts of climate warming on highly pathogenic avian influenza in migratory waterfowl

Emerging infectious diseases pose threats to wildlife populations, as exemplified by recent outbreaks of avian influenza viruses in wild birds. Climate change can affect infection dynamics in wildlife through direct effects on pathogens (e.g., environmental decay rates) and changes to host ecology, including shifting migration patterns. Here, we adapt an existing mechanistic model that couples migration and infection to study how traits of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses contribute to HPAI outcomes in migratory waterfowl, then apply this model to explore potential impacts of climate change on HPAI dynamics. We find that the simulated impacts of HPAI on the host population under baseline climate conditions varied from no impact to 100% mortality, depending on viral traits. In most cases, traits related to transmission (i.e., contact rates, shedding rates) were more important for HPAI establishment probability, infection prevalence, and mortality than were other viral traits (e.g., environmental temperature sensitivity, cross-protective immunity). We then simulated the effects of climate change (i.e., altered temperature regimes) on HPAI dynamics both via viral environmental decay and via changes in bird migration phenology. In these simulations, we found that a 9-day advancement in spring migration timing increased the duration of HPAI outbreaks by increasing time birds spent at their breeding grounds, leading to higher mortality and fewer infections. In contrast, increased viral decay in warmer years had a smaller, but opposite impact. These patterns depended on the primary transmission mode of HPAI (i.e., direct vs. environmental) and its sensitivity to environmental temperatures. Together, these results suggest that climate change is likely to increase the impacts of HPAI on waterfowl populations if HPAI relies strongly on direct transmission and birds advance their spring migration. Further integrating host-viral co-evolution and other climatic changes (e.g., salinity, humidity) could provide more precise predictions of how HPAI dynamics could change in the future.

Alaska, California, Oregon↗