SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,441 records · Page 80Linked to original sources

USGS2016

Interaction between climate, volcanism, and isostatic rebound in Southeast Alaska during the last deglaciation

Observations of enhanced volcanic frequency during the last deglaciation have led to the hypothesis that ice unloading in glaciated volcanic terrains can promote volcanism through decompression melting in the shallow mantle or a reduction in crustal magma storage time. However, a direct link between regional climate change, isostatic adjustment, and the initiation of volcanism remains to be demonstrated due to the difficulty of obtaining high-resolution well-dated records that capture short-term climate and volcanic variability traced to a particular source region. Here we present an exceptionally resolved record of 19 tephra layers paired with foraminiferal oxygen isotopes and alkenone paleotemperatures from marine sediment cores along the Southeast Alaska margin spanning the last deglacial transition. Major element compositions of the tephras indicate a predominant source from the nearby Mt. Edgecumbe Volcanic Field (MEVF). We constrain the timing of this regional eruptive sequence to 14.6–13.1 ka. The sudden increase in volcanic activity from the MEVF coincides with the onset of Bølling–Allerød interstadial warmth, the disappearance of ice-rafted detritus, and rapid vertical land motion associated with modeled regional isostatic rebound in response to glacier retreat. These data support the hypothesis that regional deglaciation can rapidly trigger volcanic activity. Rapid sea surface temperature fluctuations and an increase in local salinity (i.e., δ 18 O sw ) variability are associated with the interval of intense volcanic activity, consistent with a two-way interaction between climate and volcanism in which rapid volcanic response to ice unloading may in turn enhance short-term melting of the glaciers, plausibly via albedo effects on glacier ablation zones.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2018

Managing forest habitat for conservation-reliant species in a changing climate: The case of the endangered Kirtland’s Warbler

Conservation and recovery of species of concern necessitates evaluating forest habitat conditions under changing climate conditions, especially in the early stages of the delisting process. Managers must weigh implications of near-term habitat management activities within the context of changing environmental conditions and a species’ biological traits that may influence their vulnerability to changing conditions. Here we applied established population-habitat relationships based on decades of monitoring and research-management collaborations for the Kirtland’s Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ) to project potential impacts of changing environmental conditions to breeding habitat distribution, quantity, and quality in the near future. Kirtland’s warblers are habitat-specialists that nest exclusively within dense jack pine ( Pinus banksiana ) forests between ca. 5–20 years of age. Using Random Forests to predict changes in distribution and growth rate of jack pine under future scenarios, results indicate the projected distribution of jack pine will contract considerably (ca. 75%) throughout the Lake States region, U.S.A. in response to projected environmental conditions in 2099 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios regardless of climate model. Reduced suitability for jack pine regeneration across the Lake States may constrain management options, especially for creating high stem-density plantations nesting habitat. However, conditions remain suitable for jack pine regeneration within their historical and current core breeding range in northern Lower Michigan and several satellite breeding areas. Projected changes in jack pine growth rates varied within the core breeding area, but altered growth rates did not greatly alter the duration that habitat remained suitable for nesting by the Kirtland’s Warblers. These findings contribute to Kirtland’s Warbler conservation by informing habitat spatial planning of plantation management to provide a constant supply of nesting habitat based on the spatial variability of potential loss or gain of lands environmentally suitable for regenerating jack pine in the long-term.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

Carbon stock trends of baldcypress knees along climate gradients of the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley using allometric methods

Carbon stock trends of the knees of Taxodium distichum likely vary across climate gradients of the southeastern United States and contribute an unknown quantity of “teal” carbon to inland freshwater wetlands. Knee metrics (e.g., density, height, biomass) were measured in mixed T. distichum swamps across the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MRAV) from Illinois to Louisiana. Based on their geometric similarity to a cone, the biomasses of field knees were estimated by relating the volume of their measured field dimensions to lab-measured water displacement volume and biomass via volume/mass regressions (biomass (g) = 7.2230149 + 0.292902 × volume). Knees had greater height in flooded conditions (maximum height = 163 cm; Goose Lake, Arkansas), and also in climate normal environments of mid-range precipitation and temperature (p < 0.0001). Overall, knee biomass ha−1 was 7.5 times greater in flooded vs. not flooded conditions (34.6 ± 7.3 vs. 4.6 ± 1.0 Mg ha−1, respectively). The overall mean of knee carbon biomass stock was substantial (flooded vs. not flooded conditions: 18.1 ± 3.7 Mg C ha−1 to 2.9 ± 0.7 Mg C ha−1, respectively; knee/tree live standing biomass: 17.9–5.2%, respectively). Clearly, T. distichum knees should not be ignored in blue (teal) carbon discussions of wetlands. Because knees respond to climate normal conditions, hotter/drier environments in the MRAV could lead to a decline in the contribution of knee carbon stock in the southeastern United States.

Mississippi River Alluvial Valley↗

USGS2023

Masting is shaped by tree-level attributes and stand structure, more than climate, in a Rocky Mountain conifer species

Masting describes the spatiotemporal variability in seed production by a population of plants. Both abiotic and biotic factors drive masting, but the importance of these factors can vary among individuals and populations. To better understand how a changing climate, altered disturbance regimes, or novel management strategies might affect future seed production, we quantified the joint influence of multiple factors on annual cone production in a widespread conifer species, Rocky Mountain ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa var . scopulorum ). We reconstructed individual-level annual cone production across climatic gradients using the cone abscission scar method, and explored the causes and drivers of masting in this species. Site-level responses between weather and masting were highly variable, notably differing in the strength of their response to either summer or spring weather. In addition, the relationship to summer precipitation during cone initiation, a primary driver of annual seed production in this species, was strongest at hotter and drier sites. Additionally, we found that masting was strongly influenced by tree- and stand-level factors such as diameter, age, and local neighborhood density, all of which were associated with the mean, interannual variability, and between-tree synchrony of cone production at the individual-level. Larger and older trees produced more cones, more frequently, and with less synchrony than smaller and younger trees. Open grown trees experiencing lower levels of neighborhood competition also produced more cones with less interannual variability, but with higher between-tree synchrony. Because tree- and stand-level traits appear to regulate seed production more strongly than climate or weather in this species, management interventions targeting these factors could be powerful tools to manage future tree recruitment. Thus, current efforts to reduce stand density and conserve large trees in some ponderosa pine forests may enhance tree-level seed production and reduce variability in seed crops among years.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, South Dakota, Wyomi↗

USGS2020

Climate’s cascading effects on disease, predation, and hatching success in Anaxyrus canorus, the threatened Yosemite toad

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed Anaxyrus canorus , the Yosemite toad, as federally threatened in 2014 based upon reported population declines and vulnerability to global-change factors. A. canorus lives only in California’s central Sierra Nevada at medium to sub-alpine elevations. Lands throughout its range are protected from development, but climate and other global-change factors potentially can limit populations. A. canorus reproduces in ultra-shallow wetlands that typically hydrate seasonally via melting of the winter snowpack. Lesser snowpacks in drier years can render wetland water volumes and hydroperiods insufficient to allow for successful breeding and reproduction. Additionally, breeding and embryogenesis occur very soon after wetlands thaw when overnight temperatures can be below freezing. Diseases, such as chytridiomycosis, which recently decimated regional populations of ranid species, also might cause declines of A. canorus populations. However, reported studies focused on whether climate interacts with any pathogens to affect fitness in A. canorus have been scarce. We investigated effects of these factors on A. canorus near Tioga Pass from 1996 to 2001. We found breeding subpopulations were distributed widely but inconsistently among potentially suitable wetlands and frequently consisted of small numbers of adults. We occasionally observed small but not alarming numbers of dead adults at breeding sites. In contrast, embryo mortality often was notably high, with the majority of embryos dead in some egg masses while mortality among coincidental Pseudacris regilla (Pacific treefrog) embryos in deeper water was lower. After sampling and experimentation, we concluded that freezing killed A. canorus embryos, especially near the tops of egg masses, which enabled Saprolegnia diclina (a water mold [Oomycota]) to infect and then spread through egg masses and kill more embryos, often in conjunction with predatory flatworms ( Turbellaria spp.). We also concluded exposure to ultraviolet-B radiation did not play a role. Based upon our assessments of daily minimum temperatures recorded around snow-off during years before and after our field study, the freezing potential we observed at field sites during embryogenesis might have been commonplace beyond the years of our field study. However, interactions among snow quantity, the timing of snow-off, and coincidental air temperatures that determine such freezing potential make projections of future conditions highly uncertain, despite overall warming trends. Our results describe important effects from ongoing threats to the fitness and abundance of A. canorus via reduced reproduction success and demonstrate how climate conditions can exacerbate effects from pathogens to threaten the persistence of amphibian populations.

California↗

USGS2021

Linking demographic rates to local environmental conditions: Empirical data to support climate adaptation strategies for Eleutherodactylus frogs

Conducting managed species translocations and establishing climate change refugia are adaptation strategies to cope with projected consequences of global warming, but successful implementation requires on-the-ground validation of demographic responses to transient climate conditions. Here we estimated the effect of nine abiotic and biotic factors on local occupancy and an index of abundance (few or chorus) for four amphibian species ( Eleutherodactylus wightmanae , E. brittoni , E. antillensis, and E. coqui ) in Puerto Rico, USA. We also assessed how the same factors influenced reproductive activity of E. coqui and how species responded to hurricane María (20 September 2017). As predicted, occupancy and abundance of E. wightmanae , E. brittoni and E. coqui were positively and strongly influenced by abiotic covariates (e.g., relative humidity) that characterize high elevation, mesic habitats. E. antillensis exhibited the opposite pattern, with highest probabilities (≥0.6) recorded at ≤300 m and with average relative humidity<75%. Biotic covariates (e.g., canopy cover) had a weak influence on both parameters, regardless of species. High probabilities (≥0.9) of detecting an E. coqui chorus and active nests occurred at sites experiencing average relative humidity of>80% and temperature of ≤26 °C. Moderate to high probabilities of detecting a chorus (0.4–0.7) were recorded at sites with average temperatures>26 °C, but no reproductive activity was detected, implying that monitoring abundance alone could misrepresent the capacity of a local population to sustain itself. The possibility underscores the importance of understanding the interplay between local demographic and environmental parameters in the advent of global warming to help guide monitoring and management decisions, especially for high elevation specialists. Hurricanes can inflict marked reductions in population numbers, but impacts vary by location and species. We found that the abundance (chorus) of E. antillensis and E. brittoni increased after the hurricane, but the abundance of the other two species did not differ between years. Lack of impacts was probably mediated by low structural damage to forest tracts (e.g., 9% canopy loss). Our findings help assess habitat suitability in terms of parameters that foster local population growth, which provides a basis for testing spatio-temporal predictions about demographic rates in potential climate refugia and for designing criteria to help guide managed translocations.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2022

Evaluation of MPA designs that protect highly mobile megafauna now and under climate change scenarios

Marine protected area (MPA) designs, including large-scale MPAs (LSMPAs; >150,000 km 2 ), mobile MPAs (fluid spatiotemporal boundaries), and MPA networks, may offer different benefits to species and could enhance protection by encompassing spatiotemporal scales of animal movement. We sought to understand how well LSMPAs could benefit nine highly-mobile marine species in the tropics now and into the future by: 1) evaluating current range overlap within a LSMPA; 2) evaluating range overlap under climate change projections; and 3) evaluating how well theoretical MPA designs benefit these nine species. We focused on Palmyra Atoll and Kingman Reef, a 2000 km 2 area within the 1.2 million km 2 U.S. Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument (PRIMNM) that contains marine megafauna (reef and pelagic fishes; sea turtles; seabirds; cetaceans) reflecting different behaviors and habitat use. Our approach is useful for evaluating the effectiveness of the Palmyra-Kingman MPA and PRIMNM in protecting these species, and tropical LSMPAs in general, and for informing future MPA design. Stationary MPAs provided protection at varying scales. Reef manta rays ( Mobula alfredi ), grey reef sharks ( Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos ), green sea turtles ( Chelonia mydas ), and bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) had overall small ranges (<100 km from Palmyra-Kingman) and could benefit from stationary MPAs that contained heterogenous reef habitats. Yellowfin tuna ( Thunnus albacares ), sooty terns ( Onychoprion fuscatus ), red-footed boobies ( Sula sula ), great frigatebirds ( Fregata minor ), and melon-headed whales ( Peponocephala electra ) navigated complex oceanographic processes and may benefit most from mobile MPAs that shift with features including thermal fronts, cyclic regions of elevated productivity, and eddies, if relationships with these features are established and predictable. All species had capacity to travel to nearby reef systems, illustrating potential benefits of MPA networks and protected corridors. Suitable habitats will likely contract for all species as warm water expands under climate change scenarios (species habitats were predicted to decrease by 4–49% at Palmyra-Kingman) and MPAs may not protect suitable habitats into the future. Species habitat requirements and movement ecologies are critical aspects of marine spatial planning, especially with respect to dynamic ocean processes and a changing climate.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2010

Southern high latitude dune fields on Mars: Morphology, aeolian inactivity, and climate change

In a study area spanning the martian surface poleward of 50?? S., 1190 dune fields have been identified, mapped, and categorized based on dune field morphology. Dune fields in the study area span ??? 116400km2, leading to a global dune field coverage estimate of ???904000km2, far less than that found on Earth. Based on distinct morphological features, the dune fields were grouped into six different classes that vary in interpreted aeolian activity level from potentially active to relatively inactive and eroding. The six dune field classes occur in specific latitude zones, with a sequence of reduced activity and degradation progressing poleward. In particular, the first signs of stabilization appear at ???60?? S., which broadly corresponds to the edge of high concentrations of water-equivalent hydrogen content (observed by the Neutron Spectrometer) that have been interpreted as ground ice. This near-surface ground ice likely acts to reduce sand availability in the present climate state on Mars, stabilizing high latitude dunes and allowing erosional processes to change their morphology. As a result, climatic changes in the content of near-surface ground ice are likely to influence the level of dune activity. Spatial variation of dune field classes with longitude is significant, suggesting that local conditions play a major role in determining dune field activity level. Dune fields on the south polar layered terrain, for example, appear either potentially active or inactive, indicating that at least two generations of dune building have occurred on this surface. Many dune fields show signs of degradation mixed with crisp-brinked dunes, also suggesting that more than one generation of dune building has occurred since they originally formed. Dune fields superposed on early and late Amazonian surfaces provide potential upper age limits of ???100My on the south polar layered deposits and ???3Ga elsewhere at high latitudes. No craters are present on any identifiable dune fields, which can provide a lower age limit through crater counting: assuming all relatively stabilized dune fields represent a single noncontiguous surface of uniform age, their estimated crater retention age is <???10000years. An average-sized uncratered dune field (94km2) has a crater retention age <???8My. This apparent youth suggests that present-day climate conditions are responsible for the observed degradation and reduced level of aeolian activity. A lack of observed transport pathways and the absence of large dune fields in the largest basins (Hellas and Argyre Planitiae) are consistent with the previously proposed idea that dune sands are not typically transported far from their source regions on Mars. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2015

Field measurement and analysis of climatic factors affecting dune mobility near Grand Falls on the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States

Aeolian sand covers extensive areas of the Navajo Nation in the southwestern United States. Much of this sand is currently stabilized by vegetation, although many drier parts of these Native lands also have active and partly active dunes. Current prolonged drought conditions that started in the mid-1990s are producing significant changes in dune mobility. Reactivation of regional aeolian deposits due to drought or increasing aridity from rising temperatures resulting from climate change could have serious consequences for human and animal populations, agriculture, grazing, and infrastructure. To understand and document the current and future potential for mobility, seasonally repeated surveys were used to track the location of multiple active barchan dunes. By utilizing Real-Time Kinematic GPS field surveys and simultaneously collecting in-situ meteorological data, it is possible to examine climatic parameters and seasonal variations that affect dune mobility and their relative influences. Through analysis of the recorded data, we examined the fit of various climate parameters, and demonstrate that under the current prolonged drought, wind power is the dominant factor controlling dune mobility.

Arizona↗

USGS2007

Late nineteenth to early twenty-first century behavior of Alaskan glaciers as indicators of changing regional climate

Alaska's climate is changing and one of the most significant indications of this change has been the late 19th to early 21st century behavior of Alaskan glaciers. Weather station temperature data document that air temperatures throughout Alaska have been increasing for many decades. Since the mid-20th century, the average change is an increase of ?????2.0????C. In order to determine the magnitude and pattern of response of glaciers to this regional climate change, a comprehensive analysis was made of the recent behavior of hundreds of glaciers located in the eleven Alaskan mountain ranges and three island areas that currently support glaciers. Data analyzed included maps, historical observations, thousands of ground-and-aerial photographs and satellite images, and vegetation proxy data. Results were synthesized to determine changes in length and area of individual glaciers. Alaskan ground photography dates from 1883, aerial photography dates from 1926, and satellite photography and imagery dates from the early 1960s. Unfortunately, very few Alaskan glaciers have any mass balance observations. In most areas analyzed, every glacier that descends below an elevation of ?????1500??m is currently thinning and/or retreating. Many glaciers have an uninterrupted history of continuous post-Little-Ice-Age retreat that spans more than 250??years. Others are characterized by multiple late 19th to early 21st century fluctuations. Today, retreating and/or thinning glaciers represent more than 98% of the glaciers examined. However, in the Coast Mountains, St. Elias Mountains, Chugach Mountains, and the Aleutian Range more than a dozen glaciers are currently advancing and thickening. Many currently advancing glaciers are or were formerly tidewater glaciers. Some of these glaciers have been expanding for more than two centuries. This presentation documents the post-Little-Ice-Age behavior and variability of the response of many Alaskan glaciers to changing regional climate. ?? 2006.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2021

Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States

Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate future streamflow in seven water resource regions in the southwestern U.S. using a new SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) streamflow model. We present streamflow projections corresponding to input data from seven climate models and two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) for three, thirty-year intervals centered on the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, and for a historical thirty year interval centered on the 1990s. Across water resource regions, about half of the RCP4.5 models (51%) and two thirds of the RCP8.5 models (67%) indicate decreases in streamflow in the 2080s relative to the historical period. Models project maximum decreases in streamflow of 36–80% in all water resource regions for all periods and RCPs relative to historical streamflow, and maximum streamflow decreases of up to 20–45% in the 2080s at sites along the Colorado River used for measuring compliance with interstate and international water agreements. Headwaters are projected to experience the greatest declines, with substantial downstream implications. Among these estimates, the streamflows from models forced with RCP8.5 tend to be lower than those forced with RCP4.5. Not all climate models, times, and RCPs project widespread streamflow declines. The most ubiquitous streamflow increases are projected to occur in the 2030s under RCP4.5. Later time periods and enhanced greenhouse gas forcings indicate smaller regions of streamflow increase and lower accumulated streamflows, suggesting that limiting or reducing greenhouse gas concentrations could support future water availability. Although some possible streamflow increases are promising, the modest and spatially limited increases in streamflow projected for later time periods are still unlikely to be sufficient to meet the projected water demand. These results inform the likelihood of future water agreement compliance, and support developing strategies to balance water supply and demand.

Arizona, California, Colorado Idaho, Nevada, New M↗

USGS2012

Reading the climate record of the martian polar layered deposits

The martian polar regions have layered deposits of ice and dust. The stratigraphy of these deposits is exposed within scarps and trough walls and is thought to have formed due to climate variations in the past. Insolation has varied significantly over time and caused dramatic changes in climate, but it has remained unclear whether insolation variations could be linked to the stratigraphic record. We present a model of layer formation based on physical processes that expresses polar deposition rates of ice and dust in terms of insolation. In this model, layer formation is controlled by the insolation record, and dust-rich layers form by two mechanisms: (1) increased summer sublimation during high obliquity, and (2) variations in the polar deposition of dust modulated by obliquity variations. The model is simple, yet physically plausible, and allows for investigations of the climate control of the polar layered deposits (PLD). We compare the model to a stratigraphic column obtained from the north polar layered deposits (NPLD) (Fishbaugh, K.E., Hvidberg, C.S., Byrne, S., Russel, P.S., Herkenhoff, K.E., Winstrup, M., Kirk, R. [2010a]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07201) and show that the model can be tuned to reproduce complex layer sequences. The comparison with observations cannot uniquely constrain the PLD chronology, and it is limited by our interpretation of the observed stratigraphic column as a proxy for NPLD composition. We identified, however, a set of parameters that provides a chronology of the NPLD tied to the insolation record and consistently explains layer formation in accordance with observations of NPLD stratigraphy. This model dates the top 500 m of the NPLD back to ∼1 million years with an average net deposition rate of ice and dust of 0.55 mm a−1. The model stratigraphy contains a quasi-periodic ∼30 m cycle, similar to a previously suggested cycle in brightness profiles from the NPLD (Laskar, J., Levrard, B., Mustard, F. [2002]. Nature, 419, 375–377; Milkovich, S., Head, J.W. [2005]. J. Geophys. Res. 110), but here related to half of the obliquity cycles of 120 and 99 kyr and resulting from a combination of the two layer formation mechanisms. Further investigations of the non-linear insolation control of PLD formation should consider data from other geographical locations and include radar data and other stratigraphic datasets that can constrain the composition and stratigraphy of the NPLD layers.

Icarus↗

USGS2025

Late Amazonian ice near Athabasca Valles, Mars: Recent megaflood or climate change?

The Athabasca Valles outflow channel system is among the youngest such channels on Mars, with the Athabasca Valles flood lava (AVFL) covering the channel floor and reaching far beyond. Volcanic rootless cones on the AVFL indicate the presence of H 2 O in the shallow subsurface at the time of lava emplacement. However, Athabasca Valles are near the equator, where ice would rapidly sublime in the current climate. Therefore, the source of water for the rootless cones is uncertain: the leading hypotheses are that it was deposited (i) from the atmosphere in a different climate, or (ii) by a large aqueous flood shortly before the lava was erupted. Here we test the aqueous flood hypothesis, using numerical models of floods traversing Athabasca Valles to determine whether they can provide water to the locations of observed rootless cones. A secondary test is to determine whether flood waters are available to carve Lethe Vallis, a distal channel likely carved by the same event that formed Athabasca Valles. We find that floods with volumes and fluxes based on previously published estimates are unable to reach the distal rootless cones or Lethe Vallis. This suggests either that the climate allowed equatorial ice to be present in the subsurface at the time of the AVFL, or that geologically recent aqueous floods in Athabasca Valles were much larger than indicated by published models.

Icarus↗

USGS2023

Adapting to climate change on desert rangelands: A multi-site comparison of grazing behavior plasticity of heritage and improved beef cattle

Climate change is amplifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of desert rangeland forages through its impact on precipitation variability. Foraging behavior plasticity (an animal's ability to alter its behavior to cope with environmental variation) could be a key trait for climate adaptation of beef cattle in arid environments. We analyzed GPS-derived movement and activity data of Criollo and commercial beef cattle from eight studies conducted at sites in North and South America to determine whether seasonal and year-to-year behavior plasticity varied significantly between breeds. We calculated dormant/brown season or driest year percent change in foraging behavior relative to growing/green season or wettest year. Compared to commercial beef breeds, Criollo cattle exhibited significantly greater seasonal adjustment in daily distance traveled (20% increase vs. 2% decrease, P ≤ 0.02) and daily grazing effort (25% vs. 1.5% increase, P = 0.01) during the dormant/brown vs. growing/green season. Increase in daily area explored during the dormant/brown season was almost three times greater in Criollo vs. commercial beef cattle (P = 0.09). Seasonal adjustment in daily time spent grazing was similar for Criollo and commercial beef breeds. Increase in daily area explored during the dormant/brown season of dry vs. wet years was three times greater for Criollo vs. commercial beef breeds (P = 0.03). Criollo cattle tended (P = 0.09) to exhibit greater behavior adjustment than commercial beef counterparts in daily distance traveled during the dormant/brown season of dry vs. wet years (22% vs. 4% increase, respectively). No breed differences in adjustment of time spent grazing (P = 0.36) or grazing effort (P = 0.20) during dormant/brown season of dry vs. wet years were observed. Dry vs. wet year grazing behavior adjustments during the growing/green season were similar for both breeds. Grazing behavior plasticity observed in Criollo cows could be a critical trait for desert beef herds in the face of increasingly variable rainfall patterns occurring as a result of climate change.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2015

Past and future warming of a deep European lake (Lake Lugano): What are the climatic drivers?

We used four decades (1972–2013) of temperature data from Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, to address the hypotheses that: [i] the lake has been warming; [ii] part of the warming reflects global trends and is independent from climatic oscillations and [iii] the lake will continue to warm until the end of the 21st century. During the time spanned by our data, the surface waters of the lake (0–5 m) warmed at rates of 0.2–0.9 °C per decade, depending on season. The temperature of the deep waters (50-m bottom) displayed a rising trend in a meromictic basin of the lake and a sawtooth pattern in the other basin, which is holomictic. Long-term variation in surfacewater temperature correlated to global warming and multidecadal variation in two climatic oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the East Atlantic Pattern (EA).However, we did not detect an influence of the EA on the lake's temperature (as separate from the effect of global warming). Moreover, the effect of the AMO, estimated to a maximum of +1 °C, was not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increase (+2–3 °C in summer). Based on regional climate projections, we predicted that the lake will continue to warm at least until the end of the 21st century. Our results strongly suggest that the warming of Lake Lugano is tied to globalclimate change. To sustain current ecosystem conditions in Lake Lugano, we suggest that manage- ment plans that curtail eutrophication and (or) mitigation of global warming be pursued.

Lake Lugano↗

USGS2023

Agricultural conservation practices could help offset climate change impacts on cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a recurring problem in many temperate large lake and coastal marine ecosystems, caused mainly by anthropogenic eutrophication. Implementation of agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) offers a means to reduce non-point source nutrient runoff and mitigate HABs. However, the effectiveness of ACPs in a changing climate remains uncertain. We used an integrated biophysical modeling approach to predict how Lake Erie cyanobacterial HAB severity (bloom biomass) may change under several climate and ACP implementation scenarios, using western Lake Erie and its largely agricultural watershed as our study system. An ensemble of general circulation model projections was used to drive spatially explicit land use and hydrology models of the Maumee River watershed, the output of which informed a predictive model of Lake Erie HAB severity. Results show that, in the absence of changes in ACPs, the frequency of severe HABs is projected to increase during coming decades, owing to increased inputs of nutrients from the watershed. These anticipated increases are due to increased total precipitation and more frequent higher-magnitude rainfall events. While further implementation of ACPs appears capable of reducing severe HAB events, widespread implementation would be necessary to reduce HAB severity below current management targets. This study highlights how continued climate change will only exacerbate the need for land management practices that can reduce nutrient runoff in agriculturally dominated ecosystems, such as Lake Erie. It also shows how interdisciplinary, biophysical modeling approaches can help identify strategies to mitigate HABs in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2013

Increases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates

Downscaled and hydrologically modeled projections from an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models suggest that flooding may become more intense on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada mountains, the primary source for California’s managed water system. By the end of the 21st century, all 16 climate projections for the high greenhouse-gas emission SRES A2 scenario yield larger floods with return periods ranging 2–50 years for both the Northern Sierra Nevada and Southern Sierra Nevada, regardless of the direction of change in mean precipitation. By end of century, discharges from the Northern Sierra Nevada with 50-year return periods increase by 30–90% depending on climate model, compared to historical values. Corresponding flood flows from the Southern Sierra increase by 50–100%. The increases in simulated 50 year flood flows are larger (at 95% confidence level) than would be expected due to natural variability by as early as 2035 for the SRES A2 scenario.

California↗

USGS2013

The suitability of a simplified isotope-balance approach to quantify transient groundwater-lake interactions over a decade with climatic extremes

Groundwater inflow to a subtropical seepage lake was estimated using a transient isotope-balance approach for a decade (2001–2011) with wet and dry climatic extremes. Lake water δ18O ranged from +0.80 to +3.48 &permil;, reflecting the 4 m range in stage. The transient δ18O analysis discerned large differences in semiannual groundwater inflow, and the overall patterns of low and high groundwater inflow were consistent with an independent water budget. Despite simplifying assumptions that the isotopic composition of precipitation (δP), groundwater inflow, and atmospheric moisture (δA) were constant, groundwater inflow was within the water-budget error for 12 of the 19 semiannual calculation periods. The magnitude of inflow was over or under predicted during periods of climatic extreme. During periods of high net precipitation from tropical cyclones and El Niño conditions, δP values were considerably more depleted in 18O than assumed. During an extreme dry period, δA values were likely more enriched in 18O than assumed due to the influence of local lake evaporate. Isotope balance results were most sensitive to uncertainties in relative humidity, evaporation, and δ18O of lake water, which can limit precise quantification of groundwater inflow. Nonetheless, the consistency between isotope-balance and water-budget results indicates that this is a viable approach for lakes in similar settings, allowing the magnitude of groundwater inflow to be estimated over less-than-annual time periods. Because lake-water δ18O is a good indicator of climatic conditions, these data could be useful in ground-truthing paleoclimatic reconstructions using isotopic data from lake cores in similar settings.

Florida↗