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129 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Regional flow in the Baltic Shield during Holocene coastal regression

The occurrence of saline waters in the Baltic Shield in Sweden is consistent with ongoing but incomplete Holocene flushing and depends on the geometry and connectivity of conductive structures at both regional and local scales, and on the surface topography. Numerical simulation of regional variable-density fluid flow during Holocene land-rise and coastal regression shows that the existence of any old saline water, whether derived from submarine recharge in regions below Sweden's highest postglacial coastline or geochemical processes in the crystalline rock, is an indication either of slow fluid movements through the bedrock over long times, or of long travel distances through fracture systems before arriving at measurement points. During the land-rise period, regional flow is not affected by the variable density of fluids in the upper few kilometers of the shield, and the topography of the water table is the only driving force. The spatial distribution of meteoric flushing water and pre-Holocene waters may be complex, with the possibility of relatively fresh water in fracture zones below salty units even at depths of a few kilometers. The domination of the topographic driving force implies that deep saline water is not necessarily stagnant, and significant flow may be expected to occur in well-connected horizons even at depth. Local topography variation and fracture zone location combine to create a complex flow field in which local topographic driving forces extend to considerable depth in some areas, whereas regional topographic forces predominate in others. Thus, a pattern may be difficult to discern in measurements of the regional salinity distribution, although it is clear that the coastal region is the major zone of discharge for deeper pre-Holocene fluids. During the land-rise period, the regional flow field equilibrates with changing climatic conditions and coastal positions, while the distribution of flushing water and older water lags and will perpetually change between successive glaciations. These characteristics have direct implications for the safety of nuclear water repositories located at depth in Baltic Shield rocks.

Groundwater↗
USGS2024

Utilization of stochastic ground motion simulations for scenario-based performance assessment of geo-structures

Probabilistic seismic performance assessments of engineered structures can be highly sensitive to the seismic input excitation and its variability. In the present study, the scenario-based performance assessment recommended by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) P-58 guidelines is adopted to estimate seismic fragility of concrete dams for various seismic hazard scenarios. Due to the scarcity of recorded ground motions and thereby their poor representation of uncertainties, stochastic ground motion simulation methods are utilized to obtain the required input excitations. Moreover, to understand the uncertainty in ground motion simulation models, two broadband stochastic simulation models are used to generate input excitations representing six seismic hazard scenarios defined by earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, and soil conditions. Optimal intensity measure parameters for each scenario are identified using a systematic procedure that considers criteria such as efficiency, practicality, proficiency, sufficiency, and hazard compatibility. Fragility curves and surfaces are derived using the cloud analysis technique, taking into account various damage measures and limit state functions. The study finds that the derived fragility curves are particularly sensitive to the selection of earthquake scenarios, the choice of records, and the methods used to calculate fragility curves, with less sensitivity observed to different engineering demand parameters. Given this sensitivity, particularly to ground motion selection, the study highlights the necessity of incorporating both model-to-model variability (epistemic uncertainty) and record-to-record variability (aleatory uncertainty), alongside the established material and modeling uncertainties, in the probabilistic seismic assessment.

Reliability Engineering and System Safety (RESS)↗
USGS2026

Changing drivers of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency throughout Colorado, USA

Large magnitude snow avalanches (destructive size ≥ D3) impact settlements, transportation corridors, and public safety worldwide. In Colorado, United States, avalanches have killed more people than any other natural hazard since 1950. In March 2019, a large magnitude avalanche cycle occurred throughout the entire mountainous portion of Colorado resulting in more than 1000 reported avalanches during a two-week period. Nearly 200 of these avalanches were size D4 or larger with at least three D5 avalanches. However, placing this 2019 large magnitude avalanche cycle in historic context requires data prior to the instrumental record. Here, we paired tree disturbance data from dendrochronology (1698 to 2020) with meteorological data from the modeled and instrumental record (1901 to 2020) to understand the frequency and climate drivers of large magnitude snow avalanche cycles. The extensive number of downed trees from the 2019 avalanche cycle allowed us to collect 1,188 cross-sections and cores from 1023 individual trees within 24 avalanche paths across the state. From these samples we identified 4135 avalanche-related growth disturbances. We employed a strategic nested sampling design to spatially aggregate avalanche frequency from individual avalanche paths, to counties, to three major sub-regions (i.e., north, central, and south), and across the entire region (i.e., state of Colorado). Over a period spanning more than three centuries (1698 to 2020), we identified 76 avalanche years within 24 individual avalanche paths. Large magnitude avalanche event frequency varied across paths and sub-regions with several notable region-wide avalanche cycles. Both tree-ring and historical written records highlighted 1899 as a year with widespread and large magnitude avalanche activity similar to the March 2019 avalanche cycle. Since the early-20th century (1900 to 2020) regional avalanche probability declined significantly in parallel with decreasing snowpack throughout Colorado. Similarly, dominant avalanche regimes shifted from large magnitude regional cycles driven by above average snowfall years over most of the record, to regional avalanche cycles occurring more commonly in average to low snow years since 1988. In recent decades, a lack of December precipitation and above average March precipitation characterized years with regional large magnitude avalanche activity. Even with declining snow water equivalent, truly extreme regional large magnitude avalanche cycles remain possible – as demonstrated by the 2019 cycle. This underscores that rare but high-impact events are not eliminated by long-term trends. Understanding the changing snow and weather drivers and subsequent behavior of large magnitude avalanche cycles across multiple spatial scales may improve avalanche forecasting and the products and mitigations strategies developed by structural engineers to mitigate avalanche danger. This can decrease the avalanche risk to the public and improve infrastructure design in avalanche terrain.

Colorado↗