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Geology and mineral resources of the North-Central Montana Sagebrush Focal Area: Chapter D in Mineral resources of the Sagebrush Focal Areas of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming

Summary The U.S. Department of the Interior has proposed to withdraw approximately 10 million acres of Federal lands from mineral entry (subject to valid existing rights) from 12 million acres of lands defined as Sagebrush Focal Areas (SFAs) in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming (for further discussion on the lands involved see Scientific Investigations Report 2016–5089–A). The purpose of the proposed action is to protect the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) and its habitat from potential adverse effects of locatable mineral exploration and mining. The U.S. Geological Survey Sagebrush Mineral-Resource Assessment (SaMiRA) project was initiated in November 2015 and supported by the Bureau of Land Management to (1) assess locatable mineral-resource potential and (2) to describe leasable and salable mineral resources for the seven SFAs and Nevada additions. This chapter summarizes the current status of locatable, leasable, and salable mineral commodities and assesses the potential of locatable minerals in the North-Central Montana SFA. The proposed withdrawal area that is evaluated in this report is located in north-central Montana, and includes parts of Fergus, Petroleum, Phillips, and Valley Counties.

Montana↗

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression. All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application. Selected results from this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis. This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

Montana↗

Montana StreamStats

About this volume Montana StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ ) application that provides users with access to basin and streamflow characteristics for gaged and ungaged streams in Montana. Montana StreamStats was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Montana Departments of Transportation, Environmental Quality, and Natural Resources and Conservation. The USGS Scientific Investigations Report consists of seven independent but complementary chapters dealing with various aspects of this effort. Chapter A describes the Montana StreamStats application, the basin and streamflow datasets, and provides a brief overview of the streamflow characteristics and regression equations used in the study. Chapters B through E document the datasets, methods, and results of analyses to determine streamflow characteristics, such as peak-flow frequencies, low-flow frequencies, and monthly and annual characteristics, for USGS streamflow-gaging stations in and near Montana. The StreamStats analytical toolsets that allow users to delineate drainage basins and solve regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites in Montana are described in Chapters F and G.

Montana↗

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Maine↗

Geology and mineral resources of the Sheldon-Hart Mountain National Wildlife Refuge Complex (Oregon and Nevada), the Southeastern Oregon and North-Central Nevada, and the Southern Idaho and Northern Nevada (and Utah) Sagebrush Focal Areas: Chapter B in Mineral resources of the Sagebrush Focal Areas of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming

Summary The U.S. Department of the Interior has proposed to withdraw approximately 10 million acres of Federal lands from mineral entry (subject to valid existing rights) from 12 million acres of lands defined as Sagebrush Focal Areas (SFAs) in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming (for further discussion on the lands involved see Scientific Investigations Report 2016–5089–A). The purpose of the proposed action is to protect the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) and its habitat from potential adverse effects of locatable mineral exploration and mining. The U.S. Geological Survey Sagebrush Mineral-Resource Assessment (SaMiRA) project was initiated in November 2015 and supported by the Bureau of Land Management to (1) assess locatable mineral-resource potential and (2) to describe leasable and salable mineral resources for the seven SFAs and Nevada additions. This chapter summarizes the current status of locatable, leasable, and salable mineral commodities and assesses the potential of selected locatable minerals in lands proposed for withdrawal that span the Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, and Utah borders. In this report, the four study areas evaluated were (1) the Sheldon-Hart Mountain National Wildlife Refuge Complex SFA in Washoe County, Nevada, and Harney and Lake Counties, Oregon; (2) the Southeastern Oregon and North-Central Nevada SFA in Humboldt County, Nevada, and Harney and Malheur Counties, Oregon; (3) the Southern Idaho and Northern Nevada SFA in Cassia, Owyhee, and Twin Falls Counties, Idaho, Elko County, Nevada, and Box Elder County, Utah; and (4) the Nevada additions in Humboldt and Elko Counties, Nevada.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

Assessment of environmental flows in the middle Verde River watershed, Arizona

This report summarizes analyses of middle Verde River watershed environmental flows detailed in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5100, “Preliminary synthesis and assessment of environmental flows in the middle Verde River watershed, Arizona," by N.V. Paretti, A.M.D. Brasher, S.L. Pearlstein, D.M. Skow, B. Gungle, and B.D. Garner.

Arizona↗

A Review and Synthesis of the Scientific Information Related to the Biology and Management of Species of Special Concern at Cape Hatteras National Seashore, North Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey's Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (PWRC) conducted a study for the National Park Service (NPS) Southeast Region, Atlanta, GA, and Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) in North Carolina to review, evaluate, and summarize the available scientific information for selected species of concern at CAHA (piping plovers, sea turtles, seabeach amaranth, American oystercatchers, and colonial waterbirds). This work consisted of reviewing the scientific literature and evaluating the results of studies that examined critical life history stages of each species, and focused on the scientific findings reported that are relevant to the management of these species and their habitats at CAHA. The chapters that follow provide the results of that review separately for each species and present scientifically based options for resource management at CAHA. Although no new original research or experimental work was conducted, this synthesis of the existing information was peer reviewed by over 15 experts with familiarity with these species. This report does not establish NPS management protocols but does highlight scientific information on the biology of these species to be considered by NPS managers who make resource management decisions at CAHA. To ensure that the best available information is considered when assessing each species of interest at CAHA, this review included published research as well as practical experience of scientists and wildlife managers who were consulted in 2005. PWRC scientists evaluated the literature, consulted wildlife managers, and produced an initial draft that was sent to experts for scientific review. Revisions based on those comments were incorporated into the document. The final draft of the document was reviewed by NPS personnel to ensure that the description of the recent status and management of these species at CAHA was accurately represented and that the report was consistent with our work agreement. The following section summarizes the biological information relevant to resource management for the species of concern at CAHA.

Open-File Report↗

Geology and mineral resources of the Southwestern and South-Central Wyoming Sagebrush Focal Area, Wyoming, and the Bear River Watershed Sagebrush Focal Area, Wyoming and Utah: Chapter E in Mineral resources of the Sagebrush Focal Areas of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming

Summary The U.S. Department of the Interior has proposed to withdraw approximately 10 million acres of Federal lands from mineral entry (subject to valid existing rights) from 12 million acres of lands defined as Sagebrush Focal Areas (SFAs) in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming (for further discussion on the lands involved see Scientific Investigations Report 2016–5089–A). The purpose of the proposed action is to protect the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) and its habitat from potential adverse effects of locatable mineral exploration and mining. The U.S. Geological Survey Sagebrush Mineral-Resource Assessment (SaMiRA) project was initiated in November 2015 and supported by the Bureau of Land Management to (1) assess locatable mineral-resource potential and (2) to describe leasable and salable mineral resources for the seven SFAs and Nevada additions. This chapter summarizes the current status of locatable, leasable, and salable mineral commodities and assesses the potential of locatable minerals in the Southwestern and South-Central Wyoming and Bear River Watershed, Wyoming and Utah, SFAs.

Wyoming, Utah↗

Streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter E in Montana StreamStats

Chapter E of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to provide an update of statewide streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana. Streamflow characteristics are presented for 408 streamflow-gaging stations in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high streamflow, the magnitude and probability of low streamflow for three seasons (March–June, July–October, and November–February), streamflow duration statistics for monthly and annual periods, and mean streamflows for monthly and annual periods. Streamflow is considered to be regulated at streamflow-gaging stations where dams or other large-scale human modifications affect 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for streamflow-gaging stations with sufficient data.

Montana↗

Geology and mineral resources of the North-Central Idaho Sagebrush Focal Area: Chapter C in Mineral resources of the Sagebrush Focal Areas of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming

Summary The U.S. Department of the Interior has proposed to withdraw approximately 10 million acres of Federal lands from mineral entry (subject to valid existing rights) from 12 million acres of lands defined as Sagebrush Focal Areas (SFAs) in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming (for further discussion on the lands involved see Scientific Investigations Report 2016–5089–A). The purpose of the proposed action is to protect the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) and its habitat from potential adverse effects of locatable mineral exploration and mining. The U.S. Geological Survey Sagebrush Mineral-Resource Assessment (SaMiRA) project was initiated in November 2015 and supported by the Bureau of Land Management to (1) assess locatable mineral-resource potential and (2) to describe leasable and salable mineral resources for the seven SFAs and Nevada additions. This chapter summarizes the current status of locatable, leasable, and salable mineral commodities and assesses the potential of locatable minerals in the North-Central Idaho SFA, which extends from east-central to south-central Idaho. The geologically complex area is composed of many different rock units that locally contain potential mineral resources.

Idaho↗

Mercury Flow Through the Mercury-Containing Lamp Sector of the Economy of the United States

Introduction: This Scientific Investigations Report examines the flow of mercury through the mercury-containing lamp sector of the U.S. economy in 2001 from lamp manufacture through disposal or recycling. Mercury-containing lamps illuminate commercial and industrial buildings, outdoor areas, and residences. Mercury is an essential component in fluorescent lamps and high-intensity discharge lamps (high-pressure sodium, mercury-vapor, and metal halide). A typical fluorescent lamp is composed of a phosphor-coated glass tube with electrodes located at either end. Only a very small amount of the mercury is in vapor form. The remainder of the mercury is in the form of either liquid mercury metal or solid mercury oxide (mercury oxidizes over the life of the lamp). When voltage is applied, the electrodes energize the mercury vapor and cause it to emit ultraviolet energy. The phosphor coating absorbs the ultraviolet energy, which causes the phosphor to fluoresce and emit visible light. Mercury-containing lamps provide more lumens per watt than incandescent lamps and, as a result, require from three to four times less energy to operate. Mercury is persistent and toxic within the environment. Mercury-containing lamps are of environmental concern because they are widely distributed throughout the environment and are easily broken in handling. The magnitude of lamp sector mercury emissions, estimated to be 2.9 metric tons per year (t/yr), is small compared with the estimated mercury losses of the U.S. coal-burning and chlor-alkali industries, which are about 70 t/yr and about 90 t/yr, respectively.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Mineral resources of the Sagebrush Focal Areas of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming

Scientific Investigations Report 2016–5089 and accompanying data releases are the products of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Sagebrush Mineral-Resource Assessment (SaMiRA). The assessment was done at the request of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to evaluate the mineral-resource potential of some 10 million acres of Federal and adjacent lands in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. The need for this assessment arose from the decision by the Secretary of the Interior to pursue the protection of large tracts of contiguous habitat for the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the Western United States. One component of the Department of the Interior plan to protect the habitat areas includes withdrawing selected lands from future exploration and development of mineral and energy resources, including copper, gold, silver, rare earth elements, and other commodities used in the U.S. economy. The assessment evaluates the potential for locatable minerals such as gold, copper, and lithium and describes the nature and occurrence of leaseable and salable minerals for seven Sagebrush Focal Areas and additional lands in Nevada (“Nevada additions”) delineated by BLM. Supporting data are available in a series of USGS data releases describing mineral occurrences (the USGS Mineral Deposit Database or “USMIN”), oil and gas production and well status, previous mineral-resource assessments that covered parts of the areas studied, and a compilation of mineral-use cases based on data provided by BLM, as well as results of the locatable mineral-resource assessment in a geographic information system. The present assessment of mineral-resource potential will contribute to a better understanding of the economic and environmental trade-offs that would result from closing approximately 1 0 million acres of Federal lands to mineral entry.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming↗

Summary of U.S. Geological Survey studies conducted in cooperation with the Citizen Potawatomi Nation, central Oklahoma, 2011–14

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted hydrologic studies and published three U.S. Geological Survey scientific investigations reports in cooperation with the Citizen Potawatomi Nation from 2011 to 2014 to characterize the quality and quantity of water resources. The study areas of those reports consisted of approximately 960 square miles in parts of three counties in central Oklahoma. This study area has multiple abundant sources of water, being underlain by three principal aquifers (alluvial/terrace, Central Oklahoma, and Vamoosa-Ada), being bordered by two major rivers (North Canadian and Canadian), and having several smaller drainages including the Little River in the central part of the study area and Salt Creek in the southeastern part of the study area. The Central Oklahoma aquifer (also referred to as the “Garber-Wellington aquifer”) underlies approximately 3,000 square miles in central Oklahoma in parts of Cleveland, Logan, Lincoln, Oklahoma, and Pottawatomie Counties and much of the study area. Water from these aquifers is used for municipal, industrial, commercial, agricultural, and domestic supplies. Much of the water in the study area is of good quality; however, in some parts of this area water quality was impaired by very hard surface water and groundwater, large chloride concentrations in some smaller streams, relatively large concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients and large counts of fecal-indicator bacteria in the North Canadian River, and uranium concentrations that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Level of 30 micrograms per liter for public water supplies in water samples collected from a small number of wells. Most stream-water samples collected from the Little River by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2012–13 had dissolved solids concentrations exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level for public water supplies of 500 milligrams per liter. Larger numbers of organic compounds were measured in water samples collected from the North Canadian River than the Little River. Numerical groundwater-flow models were created to characterize flow systems in aquifers underlying this study area and areas of particular interest within the study area. Those models were used to estimate sustainable groundwater yields from parts of the North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, characterize groundwater/surface-water interactions, and estimate the effects of a 10-year simulated drought on streamflows and water levels in alluvial and bedrock aquifers. Pumping of wells at the Iron Horse Industrial Park was estimated to cause negligible infiltration of water from the adjoining North Canadian River. A 10-year simulated drought of 50 percent of normal recharge was tested for the period 1990–2000. For this period, the total amount of groundwater in storage was estimated to decrease by 8.6 percent in the North Canadian River alluvial aquifer and approximately 0.2 percent in the Central Oklahoma aquifer, and groundwater flow to streams was estimated to decrease by 28–37 percent. This volume of groundwater loss showed that the Central Oklahoma aquifer is a bedrock aquifer that has relatively low rates of recharge from the land surface. The simulated drought decreased simulated streamflow, composed of base flow, in the North Canadian River at Shawnee, Okla., which did not recover to predrought conditions until the relatively wet year of 2007 after the simulated drought period.

Oklahoma↗

Adjusted peak-flow frequency estimates for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter D in Montana StreamStats

The climatic conditions of the specific time period during which peak-flow data were collected at a given streamflow-gaging station (hereinafter referred to as gaging station) can substantially affect how well the peak-flow frequency (hereinafter referred to as frequency) results represent long-term hydrologic conditions. Differences in the timing of the periods of record can result in substantial inconsistencies in frequency estimates for hydrologically similar gaging stations. Potential for inconsistency increases with decreasing peak-flow record length. The representativeness of the frequency estimates for a short-term gaging station can be adjusted by various methods including weighting the at-site results in association with frequency estimates from regional regression equations (RREs) by using the Weighted Independent Estimates (WIE) program. Also, for gaging stations that cannot be adjusted by using the WIE program because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs, frequency estimates might be improved by using record extension procedures, including a mixed-station analysis using the maintenance of variance type I (MOVE.1) procedure. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to provide adjusted frequency estimates for selected gaging stations through water year 2011. The purpose of Chapter D of this Scientific Investigations Report is to present adjusted frequency estimates for 504 selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for the 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to the 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. The at-site frequency estimates were adjusted by weighting with frequency estimates from RREs using the WIE program for 438 selected gaging stations in Montana. These 438 selected gaging stations (1) had periods of record less than or equal to 40 years, (2) represented unregulated or minor regulation conditions, and (3) had drainage areas less than about 2,750 square miles. The weighted-average frequency estimates obtained by weighting with RREs generally are considered to provide improved frequency estimates. In some cases, there are substantial differences among the at-site frequency estimates, the regression-equation frequency estimates, and the weighted-average frequency estimates. In these cases, thoughtful consideration should be applied when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate. Some factors that might be considered when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate include (1) whether the specific gaging station has peak-flow characteristics that distinguish it from most other gaging stations used in developing the RREs for the hydrologic region; and (2) the length of the peak-flow record and the general climatic characteristics during the period when the peak-flow data were collected. For critical structure-design applications, a conservative approach would be to select the higher of the at-site frequency estimate and the weighted-average frequency estimate. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure generally was applied in cases where three or more gaging stations were located on the same large river and some of the gaging stations could not be adjusted using the weighted-average method because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure was applied to 66 selected gaging stations on 19 large rivers. The general approach for using mixed-station record extension procedures to adjust at-site frequencies involved (1) determining appropriate base periods for the gaging stations on the large rivers, (2) synthesizing peak-flow data for the gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods by using the mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure, and (3) conducting frequency analysis on the combined recorded and synthesized peak-flow data for each gaging station. Frequency estimates for the combined recorded and synthesized datasets for 66 gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods are presented. The uncertainties in the mixed-station record extension results are difficult to directly quantify; thus, it is important to understand the intended use of the estimated frequencies based on analysis of the combined recorded and synthesized datasets. The estimated frequencies are considered general estimates of frequency relations among gaging stations on the same stream channel that might be expected if the gaging stations had been gaged during the same long-term base period. However, because the mixed-station record extension procedures involve secondary statistical analysis with accompanying errors, the uncertainty of the frequency estimates is larger than would be obtained by collecting systematic records for the same number of years in the base period.

Montana↗

Groundwater-flow model of the Treasure Valley, southwestern Idaho, 1986–2015

Most of the population of the Treasure Valley and the surrounding area of southwestern Idaho and easternmost Oregon depends on groundwater for domestic supply, either from domestic or municipal-supply wells. Current and projected rapid population growth in the area has caused concern about the long-term sustainability of the groundwater resource. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Water Resource Board and the Idaho Department of Water Resources, began a project to construct a numerical groundwater-flow model of the westernmost portion of the western Snake River Plain aquifer system, called the Treasure Valley. The development of the model was guided by several objectives, including: to improve the understanding of groundwater and surface water interactions; to facilitate conjunctive water management; to provide a tool for water resources planning; and to provide a tool for water allocation. The model was constructed with a spatial scale and level of detail that aimed to meet these objectives while balancing the sometimes-competing goals of fast runtimes, numerical stability, usability, and parsimony. The Treasure Valley Groundwater Flow Model (TVGWFM) is a three-dimensional finite-difference numerical model constructed using MODFLOW 6 (Langevin and others, 2017, Documentation for the MODFLOW 6 Groundwater Flow Model: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chap. A55, 197 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A55 ). The model covers the westernmost portion of the western Snake River Plain and is discretized into a regular grid of 64 by 65 cells with a side length of 1 mile and 6 layers of varying depth and active area. A historical model period was developed consisting of 360 month-long stress periods for 1986–2015. The model builds upon previous modeling efforts by adding a transient period, incorporating new head and discharge observations to constrain parameters, incorporating information from the hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) of Bartolino (2019, Hydrogeologic framework of the Treasure Valley and surrounding area, Idaho and Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2019–5138, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20195138 ) and incorporating refined estimates of evapotranspiration and irrigation classification of lands in the study area. The TVGWFM includes all significant components of recharge to and discharge from the aquifer. Inflows include canal seepage, irrigation and precipitation recharge, mountain-front recharge, rivers and stream seepage, and seepage from Lake Lowell. Outflows include discharge to agricultural drainage ditches, discharge to rivers and streams, pumping, and discharge to Lake Lowell. Each recharge or discharge component is represented separately using individual MODFLOW 6 packages. Parameter values were derived with a combination of trial-and-error steps and automated parameter estimation using PEST software (Doherty, J.E., 2005, PEST, model-independent parameter estimation–User manual: Watermark Numerical Computing, https://pesthomepage.org/documentation ). Parameter estimates were constrained with several types of observation data, including water levels, water level changes, vertical water level differences, drain discharges, change in drain discharges, river seepage, seepage from Lake Lowell, and change in seepage from Lake Lowell. Material properties from the hydrogeologic framework were also used to assign the minimum and maximum values of some parameters. A final parameter realization was reached that minimized residuals between the observed and modelled values for the various observation groups. Mean residuals for the observation groups were 15.4 feet (ft) for water levels, 0.2 ft for water level changes, 19.4 ft for vertical water level differences, −3.9 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) for drain discharges, 0.0 ft 3 /s for changes in drain discharge, 45.0 ft 3 /s for river seepage, −40.1 ft 3 /s for Lake Lowell seepage, and 126.3 ft 3 /s for changes in Lake Lowell seepage. The quality of the model’s fit to observations varied spatially, with notable areas of under- or over-simulation of water levels present to the northwest and southwest of Lake Lowell, in the foothills along the eastern model boundary, and near the City of Eagle. Trends were observed in the residuals of many of the observation groups, indicating that the model is missing or not fully reproducing some phenomena that are observed in the system. The TVGWFM can be used as a tool for water resource planning, for understanding the interactions of groundwater and surface water at a basin scale, and for facilitating conjunctive management, but may lack the precision needed for water rights administration at a local scale. Additional sources of uncertainty or limitations of the model are noted. The quantity and spatial distribution of canal seepage and infiltration of irrigation water recharge, the largest sources of recharge to the system, are unknown and approximated indirectly. There is poor understanding of how canal seepage and incidental recharge change as land is converted from agricultural (irrigated) to suburban (semi-irrigated). These uncertainties will affect any scenarios that investigate changes to land use or irrigation practices. Finally, the model has relatively high water-level residuals around and to the southwest of Lake Lowell and should not be used to estimate water level effects in that region. The model was built with multiple, broadly expressed objectives and did not optimize performance for specific uses. However, the model and the tools included in an associated data release provide ample flexibility to improve the model for future uses. Adjustments and improvements could be made by refining the model in an area of interest, collecting additional calibration data, applying more rigorous boundary conditions, or re-estimating model parameters to optimize model performance for a specific model forecast.

Idaho↗